Pete’s Preview and Prediction of the NLCS : Baseball Reflections

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Pete’s Preview and Prediction of the NLCS

Peter Schiller | Oct 09, 2008 | Comments 0

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Let me start off by saying that according to the numbers, this should be an exciting series and a sweep would be extremely disappointing. I expect this to go 6 or 7 games!

I think that the top 6 hitters in each line up are just about equal with each other except for the Phillies reliance on the long ball.

Phillies	Line up	AVG/ OBP/ SLG	VORP
SS-S	Jimmy Rollins	.277/.349/.437	43.4
RF-R	Jayson Werth	.273/.363/.498	30.4
2B-L	Chase Utley	.292/.380/.535	62.3
1B-L	Ryan Howard	.251/.339/.543	35.2
LF-R	Pat Burrell	.250/.367/.507	33.4
CF-S	Shane Victorino	.293/.352/.447	33.4
3B-R	Pedro Feliz	.249/.302/.402	0.1
C-R	Carlos Ruiz	.219/.320/.300	-7

Dodgers	Line up	AVG/ OBP/ SLG	VORP
SS-S	Rafael Furcal	.357/.439/.573	24.5
C-R	Russell Martin	.280/.385/.396	33.6
LF-R	Manny Ramirez	.332/.430/.601	83.5
RF-L	Andre Ethier	.305/.375/.510	39.7
1B-L	James Loney	.289/.338/.434	16.9
CF-R	Matt Kemp	.290/.340/.459	31.5
2B-L	Blake DeWitt	.264/.344/.383	9.5 @ 2B
3B-R	Casey Blake	.274/.345/.463	27

I’d give the Dodgers bench the advantage with Nomar (it’s easier to spell) and Kent over Dobbs and anyone else on the Phillies bench.

I like the Dodgers rotation better than the Phillies if LA goes with the veteran Greg Maddux over the young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Adding Kershaw to the bullpen ala Boston’s rookie starter Justin Masterson, would bolster an already good Dodger bullpen, which I also award the edge to the Dodgers because of their low ERA. The highest ERA (outside of Kershaw or Maddux) of anyone in their bullpen is Chan Ho Park at 3.40

The closer position is a clear advantage for the Phillies with NL comeback player of the year Brad Lidge over either Broxton or Saito (if healthy).

Phillies	Starters	IP	ERA	Phillies	Bullpen	IP	ERA
LHP	Cole Hamels	227.1	3.09	RHP	Brad Lidge	69.1	1.95
RHP	Brett Myers	190	4.55	RHP	Ryan Madson	82.2	3.05
LHP	Jamie Moyer	196.1	3.71	LHP	J.C. Romero	59	2.75
RHP	Joe Blanton	197.2	4.69	RHP	Chad Durbin	87.2	2.87
				LHP	Scott Eyre	25.1	4.21
				LHP	James Happ	31.2	3.69
				RHP	Clay Condrey	69	3.26

Dodgers	Starters	IP	ERA	Dodgers	Bullpen	IP	ERA
RHP	Derek Lowe	211	3.22	RHP	Jonathan Broxton	69	3.13
RHP	Chad Billingsley	200.2	3.14	RHP	Takashi Saito	47	2.49
RHP	Hiroki Kuroda	183.1	3.73	LHP	Joe Beimel	49	2.02
LHP	Clayton Kershaw	107.2	4.26	RHP	Cory Wade	71.1	2.27
or				RHP	Chan Ho Park	95.1	3.4
RHP	Greg Maddux	194	4.22	LHP	Hong-Chih Kuo	80	2.14

The keys to this series are how well the Phillies middle of the order of Utley, Howard and Burrell hits and if Manny Ramirez can keep up his dominance in the playoffs. On the mound, the Phillies need Brett Myers to pitch like he’s been pitching and not like the way he was when he got sent down to the minors. Likewise, both Moyer and Maddux (if he starts) need to NOT act their age in order for their team to win games three and four respectively.

I’ll have to go with the firepower of the Phillies overpowering the Dodgers and advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

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