Pete’s Preview and Prediction of the NLCS
- Updated: October 9, 2008
Let me start off by saying that according to the numbers, this should be an exciting series and a sweep would be extremely disappointing. I expect this to go 6 or 7 games!
I think that the top 6 hitters in each line up are just about equal with each other except for the Phillies reliance on the long ball.
|Phillies||Line up||AVG/ OBP/ SLG||VORP|
|Dodgers||Line up||AVG/ OBP/ SLG||VORP|
|2B-L||Blake DeWitt||.264/.344/.383||9.5 @ 2B|
I’d give the Dodgers bench the advantage with Nomar (it’s easier to spell) and Kent over Dobbs and anyone else on the Phillies bench.
I like the Dodgers rotation better than the Phillies if LA goes with the veteran Greg Maddux over the young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Adding Kershaw to the bullpen ala Boston‘s rookie starter Justin Masterson, would bolster an already good Dodger bullpen, which I also award the edge to the Dodgers because of their low ERA. The highest ERA (outside of Kershaw or Maddux) of anyone in their bullpen is Chan Ho Park at 3.40
The closer position is a clear advantage for the Phillies with NL comeback player of the year Brad Lidge over either Broxton or Saito (if healthy).
|LHP||Cole Hamels||227.1||3.09||RHP||Brad Lidge||69.1||1.95|
|RHP||Brett Myers||190||4.55||RHP||Ryan Madson||82.2||3.05|
|LHP||Jamie Moyer||196.1||3.71||LHP||J.C. Romero||59||2.75|
|RHP||Joe Blanton||197.2||4.69||RHP||Chad Durbin||87.2||2.87|
|RHP||Derek Lowe||211||3.22||RHP||Jonathan Broxton||69||3.13|
|RHP||Chad Billingsley||200.2||3.14||RHP||Takashi Saito||47||2.49|
|RHP||Hiroki Kuroda||183.1||3.73||LHP||Joe Beimel||49||2.02|
|LHP||Clayton Kershaw||107.2||4.26||RHP||Cory Wade||71.1||2.27|
|or||RHP||Chan Ho Park||95.1||3.4|
|RHP||Greg Maddux||194||4.22||LHP||Hong-Chih Kuo||80||2.14|
The keys to this series are how well the Phillies middle of the order of Utley, Howard and Burrell hits and if Manny Ramirez can keep up his dominance in the playoffs. On the mound, the Phillies need Brett Myers to pitch like he’s been pitching and not like the way he was when he got sent down to the minors. Likewise, both Moyer and Maddux (if he starts) need to NOT act their age in order for their team to win games three and four respectively.
I’ll have to go with the firepower of the Phillies overpowering the Dodgers and advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 1993.