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It’s here: our final 2011 Phillies predictions!
With our Phillies predictions blogs complete for the infield, outfield, and starters, we naturally finish with the overall 2011 Phillies predictions blog.
To make this year’s Phillies prediction more official, I tried to use as many statistics as possible. I therefore went position by position with the starting pitchers and position players to predict how each position will perform versus last season and how that will affect the overall team record. We begin with the starting pitching.
2011 Phillies Starting Pitching Changes
The chart below shows the 2010 and 2011 Phillies rotations side by side. To start the season, last year’s rotation consisted of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, and Kendrick. By the end of the season Roy Oswalt became the number 3 starter, Blanton moved to #4, and Kendrick stayed at #5. We split Blanton’s numbers between the #3 and #4 starter positions since he spent roughly half the year at each position. To keep things simple, we also listed Hamels as the #2 starter in 2011 and Lee as the #4.
Then we compared the difference in number of wins and ERA:
2010 2011 Win Differential ERA Differential
Halladay same N/A N/A
Hamels same N/A N/A
Blanton/Oswalt Oswalt -1.5 -1.03
Moyer/Blanton Lee same -1.64
Kendrick Blanton +2 +.09
Totals +0.5 -2.58
The difference in wins is roughly the same, but there is a clear difference in ERA. Basing the ERA differential on 200 innings pitched for each starter, the Phillies starting staff will surrender 57 less runs than last season. Now let’s look at the offense.
2011 Phillies Offensive Changes
We used the same approach with the hitters, comparing the positions which have changed this year: second base, shortstop, and right field. Right or wrong, we compared strictly using each player’s 2010 numbers, assumed that Utley will miss the entire season, Francisco will be the full time right fielder, and prorated their statistics over 162 games. Let’s see what we find:
Second Base
2010 (Utley) .275 22 91 105 .832 179
2011 (Valdez) .258 5 51 54 .667 168
Differential -.17 -17 -40 -51 -.165 -11
Shortstop
Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H
2010 (Rollins/Valdez) .251 10 63 71 .681 164
2011 (Rollins) .243 14 75 88 .694 158
Differential -.15 +9 +24 +34 +.27 -6
Right Field
Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H
2010 (Werth) .296 28 88 110 .921 192
2011 (Francisco) .268 20 92 79 .768 174
Differential -.28 -8 +4 -31 -.153 -18
Total Phillies Offensive Differential
Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H
-.60 -21 -24 -65 -.188 -35
According to these figures, the Phillies will score 65 less runs in 2011. Using last year’s totals, this would drop the Phillies from 5th to 6th in the NL in hits, 5th to 12th in HR, and from 2nd to 9th in Runs Scored.
CONCLUSION
Now we know the change in runs scored and runs allowed. But how does that equate to wins and losses? We simply apply the changes to last year’s run differential. Take a look at the totals from the top five NL teams last season.
Wins Runs For Runs Against Run Differential
97 772 640 +132
92 697 583 +114
91 738 629 +109
91 790 685 +105
86 736 641 +95
The Phillies had the best record in the NL with 97 wins. When we put all the stats together, we found that the Phillies should score 65 less runs and surrender 57 fewer runs, giving them 707 runs scored and 583 runs given up in 2011, for a total differential of +124. That would put the 2011 Phillies 8 runs behind last year and right in the middle of the top two records from last year with 94.5 wins. We rank up (of course) for a prediction of 95 wins.
FINAL PREDICTION
The 2011 Phillies essentially removed Werth and Utley and added Cliff Lee, so it is a bit surprising that the results finished so high, but it looks about right. However, I believe Rollins will have a monster year and that Blanton and Hamels will pitch better this season. If that holds true, the Phillies will improve their run differential from last season.
Charlie Manuel‘s Phillies teams have improved an average of around 2 games per season. If that trend continues, the Phillies will get 99 wins.
As much as I want to give the Phillies 100 wins, but why argue with the numbers? Our prediction: 99 wins.
Record: 99-63
Hitting: WORSE
Starting Pitching: BETTER
Bullpen: SAME
Defense: SAME
Cy Young winner: Cole Hamels
NL Division champs
The Phillies will once again be crowned WORLD CHAMPIONS!
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