The 70/30 Split

One of the best parts of fantasy baseball is analyzing who is over-performing and who is under-performing. After all, determining who can help your team directly contributes to your chances of winning your league which is of course the second most important thing in fantasy baseball (the first being to have fun, right?).
There are always players that are owned in the majority of leagues that are under-achieving from a statistical point of view. Conversely, there are always players owned in the minority of leagues that are over-achieving. By either trading or replacing players who have  approximately a 70% ownership rate for those performing equally as well with only around 30% ownership, we can call this the 70/30 Split (okay, I made that up, but it does sound catchy , doesn’t it?).  Often, players with larger ownership rates are more desirable to some owners based on factors such as name recognition or potential. Perhaps this is a chance for you to package together a trade involving one or more of these players.
Let’s take a look at some of these under-achievers and their less-owned counterparts:
70% OWNED UNDER-ACHIEVER:
Geovany Soto (CHC) – Currently parked on the DL with a groin strain, Soto wasn’t hitting as expected when he was in the Cub’s line up (.226 AVG, 3 HR, 12 RBI).
30% OWNED OVER-ACHIEVER:
Ramon Hernandez (CIN) – Currently batting .353 and coming off a weekend where he mashed Cardinals pitching, Hernandez is one to grab.
70% OWNED UNDER-ACHIEVER:
Justin Morneau (MIN) – Coming off a season where he suffered a dreaded concussion, Morneau has battled illness and ineffectiveness at the plate (along with his slumping teammates) so far in 2011.
30% OWNED OVER-ACHIEVER:
Todd Helton (COL) – Showing some pop to go along with his great BA (.322), Helton is a leader on a pretty decent Rockies squad.
70% OWNED UNDER-ACHIEVER:
Mark Reynolds (BAL) – Although he has started to show some signs of life, Reynolds is not an easy fantasy player to own. His BA and propensity to strike out in bunches can hurt a fantasy squad as much as help it.
30% OWNED OVER-ACHIEVER:
Alberto Callaspo (LAA) – With regular playing time in Los Angeles, Callaspo has delivered with a solid .307 BA and has more RBI than Reynolds to boot.
70% OWNED UNDER-ACHIEVER:
Bobby Abreu (LAA) – 5 stolen bases aren’t bad, but with only 1 HR more was expected so far from Abreu. Also, that .258 AVG won’t help your team.
30% OWNED OVER-ACHIEVER:
Michael Brantley (CLE) – The 5 stolen bases were expected, the 4 HR were probably not (and a pleasant surprise). When your major impediment to playing time is the brittle Grady Sizemore, things are looking up.
70% OWNED UNDER-ACHIEVER:
Nick Swisher (NYY)– The Swish is batting only .215 with 2 HR and 15 RBI in a pretty potent Yankees line up. Looks like the inflated BABIP from 2010 (.335) is regressing back to the mean in 2011.
30% OWNED OVER-ACHIEVER:
Seth Smith (COL)– Smith always seemed to be tagged as a player who couldn’t be an everyday big-leaguer. Those grumblings seem to be behind him as he is settling in nicely behind Helton in the Rockies batting order.
It may take a bit of shopping around but there are always deals out there to be had. It all depends on how you look at it. Why not try the 70/30 split?

2 Comments

  1. kevin

    May 21, 2011 at 3:29 pm

    Yeah but with Abreu you have that .390 OBP and the home runs will come.

  2. Chris McBrien

    May 25, 2011 at 12:21 pm

    Hi Kevin,

    That’s a really good point about Abreu. Let’s hope it comes true (especially for Abreu owners out there!).

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