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At a recent family meal, I became embroiled in a baseball debate with my uncle. A staunch Yankee fan like myself, he stated that Mariano Rivera was the Yankees’ best pitcher prior to his freak ACL injury, emphasizing Mo’s unparalleled success in the postseason. While I have nothing but respect for the all-time saves leader, I played devil’s advocate, arguing that a good starter like CC Sabathia is worth more to the Bombers.
How can a reliever who throws for a single inning be more valuable than a starter who hurls six, seven, or eight innings? I pointed out. It’s pretty obvious that the guy who pitches more innings will have a bigger say in a game’s decision.
Unfortunately, my logic was lost on him, as he had quickly nodded off on the couch from either close-mindedness or a full stomach. Regardless, it seems that the baseball community continues to overvalue relievers, especially closers. Even with sabermetrics now urging us to think more objectively about America’s pastime, we still fail to recognize the faulty baseball tradition of the closer.
Since the save statistic became official in 1969, teams’ best relievers have been ordered to take the ball with a slim lead in the ninth inning. But does a save situation have the greatest probability of affecting the final score? In an article in “Baseball Between the Numbers” (an excellent book that reevaluates common knowledge in baseball), Keith Woolner suggests that save opportunities have less leverage on a game’s score than other situations for relievers. He concludes that by not using closers (presumably the bullpen’s top reliever) in these higher-leverage situations, teams miss out on nearly 2 wins per season, which clearly has huge ramifications for close wild-card races.
If Woolner’s piece isn’t enough to convince you that closers and saves are flawed constructs, then take a look at the position’s turnover in 2012. As of two weeks ago, 15 teams were no longer using their primary closer in save situations due to injuries, ineffectiveness, and roster moves (ESPN). Even now, several teams continue to flip-flop on who should enter the game in save situations. The White Sox recently had Chris Sale bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, and the Reds’ flamethrower Aroldis Chapman may have grabbed the reins from incumbent Sean Marshall after the latter nearly blew Saturday’s lead against the Yankees.
This year’s “bullpen unrest” only adds to the existing instability of the closer role. With a smaller sample size of innings pitched, relieving is a boom-or-bust endeavor, especially during “high-pressure” ninth innings. One or two mistakes can easily destroy a pitcher’s statistics and bring about his demotion. A fastball hits the dirt with the bases loaded or a curveball hangs to the cleanup hitter, and the manager immediately starts second-guessing his closer’s ability to shut the door. A few mess-ups will have a reliever sentenced to the purgatory of middle relief.
With pitchers either sustaining injuries or performing inconsistently left and right, it may be time to rethink the bullpen, starting with the closer role. The first step would be to get rid of the stigma associated with saves. A three-run lead in the ninth inning is only considered a “high-pressure” situation because we allow ourselves to believe it. In baseball and life, we frequently get swept up in mass psychology, using it as a faulty tool for valuation and analysis. Who says Facebook’s new stock should initially sell for $38 and not $37 or even $27?
Instead of arbitrarily placing importance on minutia, we should see things like the stock market and save opportunities for what they really are. Forget saves and closing, and all of the related stress would evaporate. Honestly, major-league hurlers are incredibly talented, and their ability should trump any mental angst caused by the game’s taboos concerning innings and score.
As a Yankee fan that has watched the same man finish games for 15 years straight, I cannot offer the perfect cure for the league-wide bullpen woes. However, closer volatility this season demonstrates how sorely managers need to reevaluate how and when they employ their relievers. Yes, we’re talking about reinventing the wheel here, but without bold men like Billy Beane and Joe Madden, we would be stuck in the dark ages of RBI totals and ERA. If baseball is Darwinian, then the first team to evolve its bullpen will beat MLB’s natural selection.
Check out Peter Schiller’s article about the Modern Day Use of The Bullpen in Baseball!
Related articles
- Are Closers Overrated? (baseballreflections.com)
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