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The NL Rookie of the Year race comes down to Trevor Rogers versus Jonathan India. Sometimes Rookie of the Year isn’t all that exciting, but this has the makings of a thrilling race down the stretch between two players already at star status.
Rogers has often featured in the best MLB bets today. He’s been a true ace for the Marlins, pitching at an All-Star level in his rookie campaign. India has been a driving force for the Reds’ offense behind Nicholas Castellanos and Jesse Winker.
With 20 starts under his belt in 2021, Rogers has never given up more than three earned runs. Nine of those starts have seen him give up one or no earned runs. After a slow start to the year, India’s numbers have taken off. His OPS was below .700 in April and May, but an .880 mark in June has been followed by .998 and .990 in July and August respectively.
The Numbers
Weighing up this NL Rookie of the Year race requires projection over the next few weeks. Rogers’ candidacy has taken a hit of late as he hasn’t appeared in a game since the end of July due to a personal issue. Potentially requiring a rehab start, he could miss a month of action.
Even with such an absence for the Miami southpaw, he is still tied with India in fWAR at 3.3 each. Quantity rather than quality is what could hold Rogers back, though he remains 31st in the NL in total innings this season, only a few frames behind Cy Young contender Freddy Peralta.
India is already over 450 plate appearances for the year. He’s playing every day for the Reds right now, and there are signs his production is more than a hot streak.
Drafted fifth overall in 2018, the talent level is obviously high. The Reds second baseman has also exhibited elite plate discipline, ranking in the 85th percentile in walk rate and rarely chasing. Combine that with good bat-to-ball skills, and you’ve got a complete hitter.
Defense is the big question for India. He’s ranked horribly on advanced metrics. However, the offensive production more than outweighs his issues in the field, and with the numbers he’s putting up, voters will be happy to overlook that side of the ball.
Who Wins ROY?
Picking between the two is not easy. Perhaps India’s role on a competitive Reds team wins over some voters. Maybe the consistency of Rogers gives him the edge.
Rogers was the frontrunner through the first couple of months, and with good reason. His candidacy depends on when he can get back on a Major League mound. If he can make another six or seven starts at the level he’s been at this year, he’s got a real chance of beating India in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
If India sticks at the high-900s OPS he has posted of late, though, it’s going to be very hard to beat him. It’ll be fascinating to see if pitchers work him out in the next few weeks.
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