At this point, we have to begin to discuss the possibility of an official curse – for the third time in four years one of the American League’s elite homerun hitters has suffered a season ending injury in September, and for the second year in a row it may cost the American League a 40-homerun hitter. On Monday, Carlos Pena broke two fingers after being hit by a C.C. Sabathia pitch against the Yankees. Pena currently leads the AL in homerun with 39, ahead of current AL RBI leader Mark Teixeira’s 35 and several players at 31, but is now done for the season.

Last season, Carlos Quentin led the AL in homeruns with 36 and had essentially locked up the AL Most Valuable Player Award going into September when he broke his wrist after slamming his bat in frustration on September 5th. He ended up second in the league with 36 homeruns behind Miguel Cabreras’ 37.

In 2006, Travis Hafner – who came up through the Rangers farm system with Pena, and who with Pena was made expendable by the emergence of Teixeira – was dominating the American League with 42 homeruns, 117 RBI, 100 walks, and a league leading 1.097 OPS and 179 OPS+ when his season was ended on September 1st when he was plunked by C.J. Wilson of the Rangers.

One is also reminded of Sammy Sosa’s first elite-power season, in 1996, when he had 40 homeruns and 100 RBI through August 20th, but had his wrist broken when he was hit by a pitch against the Marlins. He finished fifth in the NL in homeruns behind Andres Galarraga’s 47, and almost certainly would have led the league if not for the injury; Galarraga hit 13 homeruns from the date of Sosa’s injury through the end of the season. Interestingly, both the Sosa and Hafner HBP’s came with the bases loaded and drove in a run.

Sadly, unlike Hafner, Quentin and Sosa, this injury will likely cost Pena three different crowns. Not only does he currently lead the American League in homeruns, but he also leads the league in walks (87) and strikeouts (163). The AL bases on balls race is very tight, with Chone Figgans tied with Pena and Nick Swisher one walk behind him, while Jack Cust (152) and Russ Branyan (149) are more than capable of catching Pena in the strikeouts department.

Looking at the careers of Sosa, Hafner, and Quenton, one wonders what’s next for Carlos Pena. For Sosa, Hafner, and Quentin, these injuries radically changed their careers, and one must wonder whether the same will be said for Pena.

Sosa, of course, would go on to struggle through the 1997 season, and the narrative of that year is that the wrist injury lingered, plaguing his season. Of course, 1998 would be the year that Sosa and Mark McGwire would change baseball forever, and it is possible that Sosa’s 1997 troubles led to his alleged usage of performance enhancing drugs before the 1998 season; it has often been alleged that players begin using performance enhancers in response to injuries, so it makes sense. If so, then one HBP in 1996 changed the course of baseball history.

Hafner and Quentin, meanwhile, have not been the same players since their season-ending injuries. Quentin has been terrible in 2009 (16 homeruns, .235 average, .769 OPS) after what looked to be a breakout 2008 season, and Travis Hafner went from being one of the best hitters in baseball to enduring a solid, but comparatively lousy, 2007 and injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 seasons.

The good news for Pena is that his injury is to his fingers and not his wrist – the number of players to rebound slowly from broken wrists is too many to count, but includes Sosa, Quentin, Hafner, Vernon Wells, Derrek Lee, Hideki Matsui, Ken Griffey, Jr., among others – and comes at the end of the year, so he should have plenty of time to recover before Spring Training 2010.

On the other hand, Pena, like Hafner, has never been the model of consistency and durability, and has given the impression of someone playing on borrowed time during his big-power-low-average stint with the Rays. Whether this marks the end of Pena’s brief period as a full time major league contributor, like Hafner, remains to be seen.

On another note, it is impossible not to notice the convenient way in which this injury occurred. Pena, teammate Evan Longoria, and Mark Teixiera are currently locked in battles for the homerun and RBI titles; Pena currently leads Teixeira in homeruns by four, and Teixeira leads the RBI race with 106 ahead of Longoria (102) and Pena (100). Obviously, Pena won’t be garnering any more RBI, and with Pena done for the year the RBI opportunities for Longoria likely decrease as well. So, Sabathia’s sniping of the American League homerun leader essentially paves the way for Mark Teixeira to lead the league in both homeruns and RBI, which make Teixeira the front-runner for the AL Most Valuable Player Award. Indeed, it is hard to imagine that Award could go to anyone other than a player who leads the AL in homeruns and RBI in his first season with the New York Yankees in the year that the team led the AL in wins after missing the playoffs the previous year. Sorry, Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter.

It is all just a little too convenient.

As to Pena’s recovery, I won’t make any predictions. I am, after all, the one who said we’d seen the last of Derrek Lee, who currently has 32 homeruns, a .298 average, and a .954 OPS.

And as to the AL MVP, well, let’s just hand it to Mr. Teixeira now. Unless, of course, he has some frustration-related bat-slamming in his future.

Related posts:

1. Book Review: Burying the Curse, By Terry Pluto
2. 2009/2010 Free Agents at SS
3. The History of Advertising in Major League Baseball

They’ve done it. I asked them to. I suggested it. But I didn’t expect them to do it. But they did it. I can’t believe they actually did it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have traded Scott Kazmir.

My logic at the beginning of the season was as sound then as it is now – the Rays are a pitching deep team who need help in other areas of the field, and Kazmir’s value will never be as high as it is right now. To be sure, the Rays waited for Kazmir to suffer through a bad season and some injuries before trading him, which probably hurt his value, but they traded him nonetheless, and the post-Scott Kazmir Era begins now in Tampa.

Before evaluating whether the Rays got quality return for Kazmir, we should determine whether or not the Rays are as pitching deep now as I thought they were when I initially proposed the trade. Back in March, the Rays were coming off of a season in which Andy Sonnanstine pitched a full season of solid ball at the major league level, Jamie Shields and Matt Garza both looked like potential aces, Jeff Niemann and J.P. Howell both looked ready to join the rotation, Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot dominated Triple-A, and David Price looked like the Next Great Major League Starter. The question wasn’t whether the Rays should trade Kazmir, but whether they should trade another one of these guys as well.

Truth be told, 2009 has not been kind to this crew. Sonnanstine absolutely struggled in his second year as a starter, and got himself demoted after posting a 6.61 ERA in 15 starts. His peripherals look straightened out in Triple-A, but he still has a 4.40 ERA down there. Is he the next Dave Bush?

Jamie Shields has had the type of season that Rays fans would love if not for the inconvenient fact that he was simply better last season. After posting a 4.00 K/BB ratio in 2008, that number has dropped to 2.91. He has given up almost as many homeruns as he did last season, and we still have a month to go. And after firing three complete games and two shutouts in 2008, he has yet to go the distance in 2009. Matt Garza has had almost the exact same season, except that his K/BB has gotten slightly better. His ERA has gone up slightly, he’s giving up more homeruns, and he is 7-9 so far after finishing 2008 at 11-9.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

David Price has done exactly what we should have expected him to do – had a tough first full year after looking to possess all the promise in the world. He struggled early with his control, but has been fantastic in spurts. Sometimes it feels like you can literally watch him learn to pitch before your very eyes. His 4.63 ERA disguises his abundant talent, but this just hasn’t been the year for him to explode onto the scene.

Another factor that is new to the mix in 2009 is Jeremy Hellickson, a 22 year old righty drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft by the Rays. After dominating Single-A and Double-A in 2008 (162K/20BB in 152.0 innings), Hellickson has been great again at AA/AAA in 2009 (123/29 in 107.0). A deep pitching corps just got deeper.

As for the rest, it is a mixed bag. Jeff Niemann appears to be the Andy Sonnanstine of 2009 – very solid as a first-time full-time starter, but with numbers that indicate he could go either up or down next season. J.P Howell looked to move out of the pen and into the rotation this year, but instead moved out of middle relief and became the closer this year. And last year’s Triple-A duo Talbot and Davis have had mixed results – Talbot has only had ten starts this season and at 29 years old probably has the window closing on him, while Davis has essentially treaded water for the season in Triple-A, keeping his ERA low and his peripherals high in hopes of making the team next season.

So, essentially, the Rays’ front office saw a potent front four rotation for next season comprised of Shields, Garza, Price, and Niemann, and then a competition for the fifth spot between Sonnanstine, Davis, Hellickson, and maybe Talbot, and knew that they were paying Kazmir way too much money to not know what to expect from him for next season. Combine that with the fact that despite being 12 games over .500, they were irretrievable out of the division race behind the Yankees and the Red Sox, and this deal became a no-brainer.

Which is what I’ve been saying all season.

In return for Kazmir, the Angels sent Tampa two prospects, left-handed pitcher Alex Torres, infielder Matt Sweeney, plus a player to be named. I will freely admit that, while I wanted the Rays to trade Kazmir, this isn’t exactly what I had in mind. Matt Sweeney plays third base, a position currently occupied by last year’s Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria, and Alex Torres looks like a dandy prospect, but is yet another pitcher. My thought was that the Rays should be turning their pitching into talent at other positions, but this seems to turn pitching into talent at positions that are already occupied.

Truth be told, neither of these guys is going to get a look from the Rays until 2011, by which time the Rays may need to replace Pat Burrell at DH or Carlos Pena at first base, so maybe Sweeney’s (potential) arrival will be just in time. And you can never have enough pitching – who knows how long it will be before Garza or Shields becomes the next ready-to-move big name in Tampa. Nevertheless, this isn’t exactly the “help now” move I was hoping the Rays would make.

I guess it could have been worse – they could have ended up with Brandon Wood.

Back to Your Regularly Scheduled Program

On August 31, 2009, major league baseball teams are either in it, or out of it. As major league teams prepare to make their September call-ups, they are either calling guys up for a little help down the stretch, or calling guys up to get a look at who will be on the team the following season.

The bad news for the Rays is, they are out of it. The good news for the Rays is, of all the teams that are out of it, they are by far the best, and they are far better than some teams that are still in it (we’re looking at you, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and, yes, Detroit Tigers). But such is the life of an AL East team that doesn’t play in New York or Boston.

The Rays have lots to build on for next season, but also lots of question marks. For example, is Ben Zobrist for real? One could fathom Ben Zobrist becoming a minor household name by building upon the success he’s had this season, but one could also imagine him becoming obscure Tampa Bay Rays trivia ten years from now. Zobrist gives you lots of reasons to not believe his success – he has a radical home/road OPS split (1028/872), he has slumped in the second half of the season (.835 OPS in the second half after a 1012 in the first half), and at the age of 28, he’s never put up numbers before that match his first half performance.

Another question is this: will B.J. Upton ever become a major league star? Like Zobrist, Upton is better at home and has slumped in the second half of the season, but Upton wasn’t having an All Star season before the second half. Next year Upton will be 25 years old, and if he isn’t going to put up the numbers he put up as a 22 year old, or even manage to perform at a league average level, the Rays may need to move on. He is still a top notch defender, but there are other good centerfielders who can also hit their weight.

Gabe Gross completes the trinity of second half slumpers for the Rays. I’ve been a Gabe Gross fan since he was with the Brewers, but even I can be a realist. This guy is a corner outfielder, and there aren’t many lineups in baseball that succeed with corner outfielders who have a league average OPS. Gross will be 30 years old next year – he is either going to pull a Raul Ibanez, or he is going to become a “veteran” whose “leadership” in the “clubhouse” is “invaluable,” meaning, “we don’t play this guy a lot, but it is nice to have him around.”

Fact is, next year’s lineup will probably be a crowded one, and guys who can’t get the bat on the ball consistently may be on their way out. Next year’s outfield will likely be composed of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Rightfielder-in-Waiting Matt Joyce, while the infield will be made up of Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Akinori Iwamura, and Carlos Pena once again. This means that Gross, Zobrist, and Burrell will be fighting for playing time at the DH position

And while that may be bad news for Gross and Burrell, it is good news for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Related posts:

1. The Current Mindset of the Rays
2. The Rays After 40 Games
3. Rays Reflections

In a month in which Roy Halladay’s name occupied the airwaves 24/7, and in which Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, and Jarrod Washburn were all traded to contenders, the Cubs came away from the trading deadline with . . . Tom Gorzelanny? A guy who was solid but not great for the Pirates in 2007, and split time in 2008 and 2009 with the Pirates’ Triple-A club. Are we supposed to believe that the Cubs hope to win the NL Central with a guy who wasn’t good enough to break the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation?

The funny part is that the Cubs actually gave up a guy in Kevin Hart who has had some success at the major league level in 2009.

Who knows – perhaps Gorzelanny is a good pitcher from a bad team who will improve mightily on a winning team like the Cubs. I don’t think that will be the case, but who knows? On the bright side, Gorzelanny has dominated Triple-A since 2006, and he is a lefty where Hart was a righty.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The other big move made by the Cubs was the acquisition of Toronto Blue Jays cast-off B.J. Ryan, who despite being owed more than $15 million on his contract was released in June. But who knows, this could work out great as well. Thirty-three year old relievers with bad mechanics two-and-a-half years removed from Tommy John surgery often work out great, right?

Chicago Cubs apologists will be quick to point out that the Cubs have been hamstrung by the fact that their parent, the Tribune Company, is currently in bankruptcy proceedings. This may be. Nevertheless, it is questionable not only whether the moves the Cubs are making will improve the team, but whether the moves may actually be making the team worse. It remains to be seen.

The good news for the Cubs is that July was their hottest month of the season so far. During the past month the Cubs won 18 of 27 games, including 6 out of 8 on the road. The bad news is that the Cubs played 19 of their 27 games at home in July, where they are a better team that they are on the road. In August, the Cubs play 16 out of 29 games on the road, and will have only 2 days off. Plus, while the Cubs benefited from a weak schedule in July, in August they face off against Florida, Colorado, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and the Mets. It will be a grueling month.

On the other hand, if a month from now the Cubs are still within 2 games of first place in the NL Central, then they may be primed to make another move or two before the August 31st deadline, whereas should they slip in the standings they’ll know that such a move would be futile. That is probably a good position to be in.

Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir Update

Wanna hear something weird? Jake Fox currently has a 141 OPS+ and a .955 OPS, but he has performed significantly better on the road than he has at Wrigley Field, to the tune of .275/.328/.529/.857 at home and .339/.365/.679/1.044 on the road. Anyone who can put up those numbers on the road playing for any team is likely the real deal. Though it is a relatively small sample size, this is very good news for what has been one of the few bright spots in the Cubs’ lineup in 2009.

Humorously (or should I say, humorlessly), Fox has seen his playing time limited of late for the preposterous reason that, with Geovanny Soto on the DL, Fox is the team’s emergency catcher and must be kept available in case Koyie Hill gets injured. Any chance we can make Milton Bradley the emergency catcher?

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

While Jake Fox has been bringing it for the Cubs on the road, Hoffpauir has not. He is solid at home, with an .887 OPS and a .278 batting average, but on the road he is awful, to the tune of .575 and .204. Ouch. Plus, he has 3 walks and 29 strikeouts on the road. Ooof.

I am beginning to wonder about the Cubs farm system and its ability to produce major league hitters. Seriously, when was the last time a Cubs prospect became a bona fide major league hitter? Let’s count backwards the number of Cubs major league prospects who failed to pan out – Micah Hoffpauir (at least for now), Geovanny Soto (one year does not out a pan), Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Corey Patterson, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Jason DuBois, Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill, Augue Ojeda, Roosevelt Brown, Kevin Orie, Gary Matthews, Jr., Julio Zuleta, Jason Smith, Brant Brown, Chad Meyers, Robin Jennings, Jose Nieves, Brooks Kieschnick, Doug Glanville, Kevin Roberson, Mike Hubbard, Rey Sanchez, Derrick May, Rick Wilkins, Doug Dascenzo, Hector Villaneuva, Gary Scott, Alex Arias, Dwight Smith, Jerome Walton, Damon Berryhill, Greg Smith, Rick Wrona, Joe Girardi, Earl Cunningham, Ty Griffin, Mark Grace.

Okay, I wasn’t expecting that – I figured that the list would be long, but I did not expect to have to go all the way back to Mark Grace. Is that it? Has it been 20 years since the Cubs developed a star major league hitter? Amazingly, the Cubs drafted Mark Grace in 1985, the same year they drafted Rafael Palmeiro. So it has been almost 25 years since the Cubs drafted and developed a star major league hitter. How is that possible? Something is seriously wrong!

I guess, theoretically, the Cubs could take credit for developing Sammy Sosa. But Sosa was signed by the Rangers and traded to the White Sox before he was traded to the Cubs as a 23 year old, so it would be hard for them to claim credit for his development when he was in baseball for six years before joining the Cubs.

Just to complete the exercise, let’s go through Major League Baseball and take a look at a random sampling of homegrown star hitters from each franchise:

Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Scott Rolen, Jimmy Rollins

New York Mets: David Wright, Jose Reyes

Florida Marlins: Miguel Cabrera

Washington Nationals: Vlad Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, Jose Vidro

Atlanta Braves: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal, Brian McCann

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols,

Houston Astros: Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio

Pittsburgh Pirates: Aramis Ramirez

Cincinnati Reds: Adam Dunn

Milwaukee Brewers: Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney

Arizona Diamondbacks: Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton

Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitski, Matt Holliday

San Diego Padres: Jason Bay

San Francisco Giants: Pedro Feliz, Pablo Sandoval

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, Jorge Posada

Boston Red Sox: Jeff Bagwell, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury

Tampa Bay Rays: Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Aubrey Huff, Evan Longoria

Toronto Blue Jays: Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells

Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis

Chicago White Sox: Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko

Detroit Tigers: Curtis Granderson,

Minnesota Twins: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer,

Cleveland Indians: Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Brian Giles, Richie Sexson

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Joe Randa

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Darin Erstad, Jim Edmonds, Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon, Garrett Anderson

Texas Rangers: Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Travis Hafner

Seattle Mariners: Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez, Raul Ibanez

Gee whiz. It is one thing to say it has been a long time since the Cubs developed a good major league hitter, but taking even a cursory glance at what all the other teams have done in recent years reveals just what a feat this has been. Do the Cubs simply have the worst farm system in baseball over the last 20 years? It looks like only the Giants and Pirates systems have done even close to as bad of a job.

This is a shocking development.

Indeed, when one looks at recent Chicago Cubs stars, it is a list of hitters acquired from other teams almost exclusively. Consider: Derrek Lee (acquired from the Marlins), Aramis Ramirez (Pirates), Sammy Sosa (White Sox), Juan Pierre (Marlins), Alex Gonzalez (Blue Jays), Andre Dawson (Expos), and Ryne Sandberg (Phillies).
I’ll tell you what this tells me – if the Cubs have star offensive prospects in their minor league system and they think they can use them to acquire established hitters or pitching help, they should do so. And whether or not they win the division in 2009 may depend on whether or not they heed history’s advice.

Related posts:

1. Cubs Reflections on Being in First Place
2. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

What have the Tampa Bay Rays shown us in 2009?  They have shown us that they are, indeed, a very good baseball team.  More importantly, they’ve shown remarkable depth – as we watch the New York Mets crash and burn because three of their biggest stars haven’t been healthy in 2009, it is impressive to see a younger and inexperienced team play eight games above .500 despite a myriad of injuries and underachievement.

Surely the disappointing pitching of Scott Kazmir (6.69 ERA), Andy Sonnanstine (6.61), and David Price (5.60 ERA, 33 BB and 11 HR in 53.0 innings pitched) would be enough to undo a team with less depth.  The Rays, however, have seen Jeff Niemann (3.81 ERA) emerge as a full time quality starter, and seen James Shields and Matt Garza develop as the new duo at the top of the rotation.

Had the Rays been mediocre this season, one could certainly have pointed to the injuries that have forced Jason Bartlett to miss 20 games, or Carlos Pena’s .217 batting average, or B.J. Upton’s continued two season funk as the explanation.  But Evan Longoria has continued to impress, Carl Crawford is playing better than ever, and Ben Zobrist, of all people, has emerged as a major league star, while Gabe Gross has finally come through on some of the potential I’ve been touting for so long (it is annoying).  Meanwhile, Wily Aybar and his 116 OPS+ may be one of the truly under-heralded players of the year so far.

Unfortunately for the Rays, this isn’t 2008, and this isn’t the AL Central.  Despite having a record that would lead three divisions, and would be half a game behind the NL wild card leader, the Rays find themselves 7.5 games behind the Yankees and 5.0 games behind the Red Sox.  It is beginning to look like the Rays are a very good team in a great division.  It is a sad truth, one which went one sabbatical in 2008 and came back refreshed and dominant as ever in 2009.

Image via Wikipedia

So what are the Rays to do?  Fortunately, they are a good, young, and (most importantly) inexpensive team, which means it is not fire-sale time.  In fact, it could be time to build for next year by taking advantage of this year’s replaceable parts.  If the Rays are not going to be in the playoffs – which it certainly appears is the case, though the season is far from over – they owe it to themselves to be better prepared for next season.  And here’s how:

Take advantage of this year’s contenders. While it is less demonstratively true than it was last year at this time, the Rays are still loaded with pitching talent.  Thus, I renew my call to trade struggling ace Scott Kazmir.  I said at the beginning of the season that he would likely never again be as valuable as trade bait as he was before the 2009 season, and now we are getting to the point where the Rays may never again be able to bluff about him being past whatever issues he was having.  If the Rays could throw Kazmir into the mix for some contending team, then they could possibly add a prospect who might be capable of contributing as soon as next season.

Sack Pat Burrell.  I don’t think they can trade this guy – I’m not sure what the market is for a guy who is hitting .226 with a .700 OPS, can’t be trusted to play in the field, and is in the first year of a big contract.  But I do know this – Burrell is the Rays third oldest hitter behind Gabe Kapler and Joe Dillon, and every time Joe Maddon inserts Burrell into the lineup he’s taking away playing time from some young player who could be both developing their talent and contributing to the club in a way that Burrell does not.

By the way, props to the Phillies for discarding a guy who was on their World Series team, who was their former number one overall draft pick, and who was climbing the all time franchise leader-boards in order to sign a guy who is five years older and doesn’t have the same monster-mash pedigree.  All Raul Ibanez has done with the Phillies this year is put up career numbers, stabilize left field from a defensive standpoint, and establish himself as the leading contender for the National League MVPOTAP (Most Valuable Player Other Than Pujols) Award.

Pretend to contend, and make a killer move. This is probably the most intriguing of the choices – what if the Rays paraded themselves around town as a team that was looking to make a strong roster move in order to shore up its chances at the post-season, with an eye towards next season.  Acquiring a guy for the second half of the season would (in theory anyway) give them an inside track to re-signing the guy when his contract is up.  What if Brandon Phillips or Josh Willingham were available for a relative paucity of minor league talent?

Demote Andy Sonnanstine. I don’t know what Sonnanstine’s issue in 2009 has been, and I don’t care.  The Rays need to find themselves a pitching guru – is Greg Maddux available?  Curt Schilling?  Bob Tewksbury? – and send Sonnanstine to pitch on whichever of their minor league teams is closest to whichever guy will work with him.  Sonnanstine is a control-style pitcher who, with tutoring, could be an effective pitcher, and without tutoring could be the next Brian Lawrence or Dave Bush.  Let Sonnanstine take some time to figure out what is bothering him, and get ready for next season.

At the end of the day, the Tampa Bay Rays do not have to be one of these teams that every ten years or so puts together a surprising season, like Kansas City, Baltimore, Cincinnati, or Florida.  Tampa Bay could be a legitimately decent franchise that plays around .500 ball every season, and from time to time things click and they are in the playoff mix – like the Astros, Phillies, Padres, and Mariners.  They certainly play in a big enough market in the Tampa/St. Pete area to make it happen.  What we are seeing right now is likely the beginning of that.

But if this franchise is going to operate on that level, then there needs to be a new mindset (which the Rays have, apparently, begun to adopt).  Bad teams scrap themselves when they are out of it in July and wait until next year, but decent teams, though still out of it by August, make themselves better through both player development and smart front office moves year round, knowing that next year could be their special year.  That is where I think the Rays are now.

Related posts:

1. Breaking News: The Rays Are Sellers, and Looking Towards 2010
2. The Rays After 40 Games
3. Rays Reflections

Despite all my nay-saying and doom-daying, the Chicago Cubs woke up on July 27th and found themselves in first place in the NL Central.  Outside of any performance by the Cubs, here are five reasons which this has happened:

5.         The St. Louis Cardinals have no hitting. A month into the season, the Cardinals looked to have five legitimate, major-league-starter caliber outfielders.  I even joked that maybe one of them could play first base.  Now the Cardinals are trying to give these guys away (literally – they just traded away Chris Duncan, the son of their own pitching coach).  The Cardinals have Albert Pujols and not much else on offense, though Ryan Ludwick is coming around, and it has undermined their pitching staff.  Despite having three dynamite starters, the Cards staff’s won-loss percentage does not reflect their dominance.

4.         The Milwaukee Brewers have no pitching. The Brewers have discovered this season that you can have two of the premier hitters in baseball (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder), some talented support, and one of the greatest closers in baseball history in a renaissance season, and it won’t do anything to cover the sin of a bad rotation.  After Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have four below-average pitchers in Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush (as much as it pains me to say that), Braden Looper, and Manny Parra.  If you don’t have starters, you aren’t in the conversation.

3.         The Cincinnati Reds have no coaching. Dusty Baker has taken a lot of criticism for a lot of things, but none so prescient as that leveled by Larry Dobrow of cbssportsline.com last year when, referring to Baker’s infatuation with Corey Patterson, he noted that Baker cannot accept the fact that speedy defensive minded centerfielders are not always the best leadoff men.  Baker has made this point critically obvious in 2009, as he has refused to notice that Willy Taveras is a terrible leadoff hitter.  To be fair, Baker doesn’t have a lot of options with this lineup period, but he has made the least of the situation.  And frankly, everything else falls in from there.

2.         The Houston Astros have no Lance. Or at least haven’t had Lance Berkman on track so far this season.  But that seems to be changing – Lance’s OPS has been over 1.000 in each of the last two months, and his OBP is over .500 for July.  The Astros lineup revolves around this guy, so when he is off, they are off.  Now that he is back, could the Astros be making a run?

1.         The Pittsburgh Pirates have no chance. Economists have a term called stagflation, in which there is high inflation without economic growth.  In theory, this is worse than a recession or inflation, and can be much more difficult to break out of than either of the alternatives.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a similar situation – they aren’t contenders, which makes them sellers approaching the trade deadline, but they also don’t have enough talent to bring in top name prospects from contending teams.  So they are stuck.

It would appear, thus far, if my theory is correct, that the Cubs are in first place in the NL Central purely based upon the failings of the other teams in the division.  To a certain extent this is correct.  The Brewers, Astros and Cardinals are all either underachieving compared to the production of their players, or underperforming compared to the talent level of their teams.  And Chicago has been the beneficiary.

Nevertheless, some credit must be given to the Cubs.   Credit must start with Derrek Lee, whom I have been deriding all of this season and most of last season.  Lee has stepped up his production dramatically in 2009, has already matched last year’s homerun total, and is hitting into way fewer double plays.  But lest we get excited, he is still a home-field hero – he has a .757 road OPS and 15 of his 20 homeruns have come at home.  He is better, but let’s not go celebrating to vehemently.

Aramis Ramirez also appears to be ready to contribute again, after an extended stint on the disabled list.  He is hitting over .300 with an OPS over .900 in July, and will be a crucial factor in the second half.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The real story of the Chicago Cubs fall from grace in 2009 has been the horrendous play of Alfonso Soriano and Geovanny Soto.  For Soto’s part, he looked like he was starting to turn things around before getting hurt earlier this month.  He is a young guy and you might expect inconsistency.  But for Soriano, the dropoff has been stunningly inexplicable.  Soriano is the type of player that playoff teams have to be able to count on, a guy who can be penciled in for a certain level of performance, and he simply has not given it in 2009.  Despite a recent return to form (.342/.383/.553/.935 in the month of July), Soriano is still on pace for the worst season of his career.  Forget Derrek Lee – if the Cubs are going to the playoffs, Soriano has to be one of the top 15 outfielders in the National League.

Complain as we may about the bewilderingly inconsistent Cubs’ offense, the pitching staff is quietly having a good season.  The encouraging news is that the Cubs have been led thus far by Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano.  Rich Harden is actually having the worst season of the five starters, and his ERA is only 4.55.  If Harden can get it together and the Cubs offense can get these guys to the playoffs, the pitching should (should) be in a position to take the club deep.

Cheekiness aside, the Chicago Cubs really are in first place in the NL Central division by happenstance at this point.  They are lucky to be there – their 52-45 record is the second worst among division leaders, and would be good for fourth place in the NL West and AL East – but they don’t have to relinquish the position.  If their top performers can perform the way they are supposed to and their second tier talent can continue to produce, they have a real honest shot at fending off the Astros, Cards and Brewers.

Chicago Cubs Notes:

- The Cajun Connection, Cubs infielders Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot, who played together at LSU, got so much press in the pre-season I wondered whether these guys had retained their own PR firm.  As a Cubs fan from Louisiana, I love these guys and wish them all the best, but they have struggled at the plate in 2009.  But, look at the bright-side – Aaron Miles, who came to camp to compete for a middle infielder spot, has a 30 OPS+, and an OPS of .500.

- Cubs pitchers are second in baseball in strikeouts, but third in baseball in walks.

- No Cubs pitcher with 25 or more innings pitched has given up over a hit per inning this season.  They are third in the NL in this category behind LA and San Francisco, which is remarkable – both the Dodgers and the Giants have outstanding pitching staffs and play in pitcher friendly parks, while the Cubs have a solid but not great staff and play in a hitter friendly park.  The Cubs defense has to be part of this (maybe I was too quick to dawg the Cajun Connection).

- The Cubs offense has the fourth most homeruns and the fourth lowest batting average in the National League.  Homeruns you can fake – all it takes is a small ballpark.  Batting average can’t be faked.  This is not a great hitting team.

- The Chicago Cubs are the sixth oldest team in baseball, behind the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Astros.  Here’s the thing – the Phillies have Matt Stairs (41) and Jamie Moyer (46), which throws off their average age.  The Red Sox have Tim Wakefield (42), John Smoltz (42), and Takashi Saito (39) tilting their age.  The Yankees have seven guys aged 35 or older, many of whom are future Hall of Famers, and the Astros have a host of elder-statesmen veterans.  What do the Cubs have?  Their oldest player is Chad Fox (38), and then the next oldest guy is 33.  This is just, across the board, an old team.

- Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle pitched a perfect game last week in which he struck out six batters.  This is destined to spark a debate amongst Chicagoans as to the most dominant pitching performance in Chicago Baseball History – Buehrle’s perfecto or Wood’s 20 strikeout one-hitter on May 6, 1998.  The only two base-runners in Wood’s game came on a hit and a hit batsman.  Ironically, a great play by DeWayne Wise saved Buehrle’s game, while a lousy play marred Wood’s game – a miscue by third baseman Kevin Orie which could (should, by some accounts) have been called an error.  For my part, I’ll take the guy against whom 20 of 27 batters couldn’t make contact with the ball.

Related posts:

1. As the Cubs Roll Into August…
2. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

I have a theory about Carlos Zambrano that I have stated repeatedly, and I will do so again here: Carlos Zambrano is pretty close to becoming the greatest pitcher in the history of Wrigley Field. There have simply been very few pitchers who have sustained success over several years pitching in Wrigley. The best pitcher is probably Ferguson Jenkins, and Zambrano is probably second. Already. At the age of 28.

Fact is, Wrigley Field chews up pitchers, and unfortunately for Big Z, I think it is chewing him up as we speak. His best year was 2004, his best three years were 2004-2006, and he currently appears to be in Year Three of a three year decline. But I don’t blame Carlos, and I wished he’d get more credit than he does. I would imagine it is awfully hard to get on a roll when you have to pitch at Wrigley Field.

The rest of the staff is suffering much the way Zambrano is, and they are currently posting classic 21st Century Cubs numbers – second in the league in strikeouts, third in the league in homeruns allowed. Throw in Rich Harden’s latest trip to the DL – premised upon a “no, really, it’s not my shoulder, I’m just a little sore around the knees!” that no one believes – and the Cubs’ pitching staff looks like it could be in for a bruising.

The only consolation for the Cubs in the bullpen is that the jettisoned Kerry Wood is pitching horribly in Cleveland, so he probably wouldn’t be doing better than Carlos Marmol or Kevin Gregg. Gregg can barely keep the ball in the park, and while Marmol strikes out over a batter per inning he almost walks that many as well. Wrigley Field will simply chew guys up.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

At the end of the day, though, the Cubs pitchers are pitching well enough to win ballgames if their offense would show up, but it simply hasn’t. The Cubs currently have several players hitting unimpressively – Alfonso Soriano, Micah Hoffpauir, Ryan Theriot – and several players hitting terribly – Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto, Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot, Milton Bradley. The Cubs’ two best hitters at this point are Aramis Ramirez, who is hurt, and Kosuke Fukudome, who got off to a fast start last year before crashing down to earth. All would appear to be lost for this squad on offense.

So what does this team need to do to improve? I don’t know, but Alfonso Soriano recently suggested he would be up to playing second base if it helped get Hoffpauir more at-bats in the outfield. I am not sure having a guy who was terrible at second base when he last played there five years ago is the answer to the Cubs problems.

I am also not terribly sure there is a lot to be done for this team by way of trade. I think the word is out on Derrek Lee at this point, and no one is going to rid the Cubs of his bat. Milton Bradley has only just signed what already looks like a terrible $30 million deal, and the answer to the Cubs pitching woes is not likely to be trading away the few talented pitchers they have.

The pity of it all is that the Cubs find themselves with a bunch of over-priced veterans at a time when they should be playing talented youngsters that they’ve developed. While the team pays its absurd, underachieving Bradley-Fukudome-Soriano outfield a combined $40 million, minor league leftfielder Jake Fox is hitting .423 with a 1.389 OPS and 17 homeruns and 50 RBI in 40 games so far this season with no hope of being called up. As Derrek Lee toils away for the Cubs, his career all but over, to the tune of $13.25 million, Micah Hoffpauir can’t get on the field.

The Chicago Cubs have somehow become the New York Yankees.

There are some lessons to be learned here, and some potential upside. Fact is, one of the Cubs top two starters and one of their top three hitters are out right now – any team would have trouble in that situation. And the pitching, though struggling, can improve if it can simply get control of itself. Despite the fact that the Cubs have given up the seventh most homeruns in the major leagues, they have allowed the third fewest hits in the majors. This means that the defense is doing its job, and this team is built to succeed if the pitching staff doesn’t kill itself.

Another strange statistic for the pitching staff is K/BB ratio. The Cubs currently lead major league baseball in strikeouts per inning, which is impressive given the Giants’ and Marlins’ staffs. However, the Cubs have given up the seventh most bases on balls in all of baseball as well.

The Chicago Cubs have become the team-pitching version of Nolan Ryan.

Basically, the Cubs are giving up runs and losing ballgames because of defense-independent statistics. This simply has to stop. Whether we were all wrong about Geovanny Soto, or Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild is losing his touch, these guys have got to stop walking batters and stop giving up long balls.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As for the hitting, well, as discussed above, the Cubs are not currently putting their best offense on the field. Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox should be playing everyday at this point, and Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot, and Milton Bradley should not be. Unlike the pitching staff, the offense does not seem loaded with talented offensive players right now, and that is unfortunately unlikely to change in the near future. Unless teams are looking to acquire Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee, which they aren’t.

Add on top of all this the fact that three NL Central teams look to have come to play in 2009, and it is beginning to look like a long summer for the Cubbies.

Related posts:

1. As the Cubs Roll Into August…
2. Cubs Reflections on Being in First Place
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

Things have taken a strange turn for the Tampa Bay Rays – the 2008 team was pitching-strong but anemic on offense. In 2009, the offense looks like their best ever (slight exaggeration) while the pitching has looked mediocre.

Perhaps no player better represents this turnaround than Jason Bartlett. In my opinion, Bartlett is the most underrated style of player – the all-glove, offensive-liability shortstop. Every team should have one. I would take Bartlett over Derek Jeter any day of the week.

Except, Bartlett is no longer filling the role as described. Coming into 2009, Bartlett’s career high for a single season OPS was .760, and he did that three years ago. This year, his OPS is 1.010, a number usually reserved for elite sluggers. His career high for batting average before 2009 was a .309; this year he’s hitting .384. His career high for homeruns before this season was 5; he already has that many in 2009.

I don’t think Bartlett can keep it up – he never has before – but his performance is certainly a sign that strange things are afoot at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays Rookie 3B Evan Longoria

Another example of shocking turnabout is Evan Longoria. High performing rookies usually do one of two things – they either have sophomore slumps, or they barely maintain their first year performance for a second year. But who knows, with Ryan Howard and Dustin Pedroia each having won the Rookie of the Year Award and the Most Valuable Player Award in consecutive seasons since 2005, maybe that trend is changing. Longoria would certainly appear to be proof of that.

So far in 2009, the 23 year old third baseman leads the American League in doubles, total bases, and RBI, while hitting .345 with a 1.080 OPS. He’s also scored 31 runs in 38 games, which puts him on pace for well over 100. At this point, there is no single statistic from 2008 that Longoria is not on pace to best in 2009.

Image via Wikipedia

Perhaps the biggest surprise in a lineup full of them is Carl Crawford, the grizzlied veteran leader of the franchise. In the pre-season, I posted on several sites that the Carl Crawford we used to know may be a thing of the past, and from here on out Crawford will be a slower, and perhaps stronger hitter. I could not have been more wrong. As of this writing, Crawford leads the majors in stolen bases, has yet to be caught stealing or hit into a double play, and is on pace to become the first player since Vince Coleman in 1987 to steal 100 bases in a season. Oh, and he’s also hitting a career high .327 with an .829 OPS, and he’s two doubles and one stolen base away from last season’s totals.

It would be erroneous of me not mention Carlos Pena here, though he has returned to earth in the last couple of weeks. It would also be intellectually dishonest of me not to point out that B.J. Upton has been awful this season, and Pat Burrell is positively wilting in the AL (.315 slugging percentage?)

I often wonder about ballpark changes when a team goes from bad-hitting/good-pitching to good-hitting/bad-pitching overnight. See the 2007 Chicago White Sox. Truth be told, the Rays pitching and hitting have really just normalized – whereas last season the hitting was below league average and the pitching was above league average, this season they are both at league average.

SP Scott Kazmir

Going back to my previous Tampa Bay Rays posts here at BaseballReflections.com , read my comments about Scott Kazmir. My fears have come to fruition in that respect – as of this writing Kaz is 4-3 with a 6.97 ERA, 32 K and 25 BB in 41.1 innings. This is what I was saying when I said it was time to trade Kazmir. Of course, dude is only 25 years old, and has already had better seasons than C.C. Sabathia had by this age, so it may be too soon to call it a career. Nevertheless, you’ve been warned.

Kazmir isn’t the only Rays pitcher struggling – Andy Sonnanstine has been even worse with his 7.36 ERA and 1.71 K/BB ratio. Most troubling for Sonnanstine is his hits allowed – on a team that without him gives up less than nine hits per nine innings (so you can’t blame the defense), Sonnanstine is giving up 12.9 hits per nine innings. This is get sent down to the minors stuff.

When teams make surprising playoff runs, the unsung heroes are often found in the bullpen. The same was true for the Rays in 2008, but so far in 2009 things have not gone as well. Neither Troy Percival nor Grant Balfour is looking particularly magical, and Dan Wheeler and Joe Nelson aren’t bringing much to the table right now.

Unfortunately, things aren’t panning out at the minor league level very well right now either. At the beginning of the season I reflected upon the demotion of David Price, Wade Davis, and Mitch Talbot, and noted that any of these guys would be welcome on teams with less pitching depth. Well, none of these guys is lighting up Triple-A right now, with the lone bright spot being Price’s strikeout-per-inning being over 1:1. But like it or not, with the Rays’ needs and Price’s performance this year, he may become a closer before he becomes a starter.

Of course, if the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox continue to play the way they are, these guys won’t really need a closer.

Related posts:

1. Breaking News: The Rays Are Sellers, and Looking Towards 2010
2. The Current Mindset of the Rays
3. Rays Reflections

David Price and Andy Sonnanstine are exhibits A and B in a lesson about how valuable experience can be when making a major league roster or, more importantly, a starting rotation.  Though I am a big fan of Andy’s, anyone can see that Price is likely a far more talented pitcher in every aspect of the game.  The 23 year old Price seemed major league ready when he was drafted, and has simply dominated in his 109 minor league innings pitched.

But at the end of the day, Sonnanstine’s place in Tampa Bay’s rotation is set while Price is on the outside looking in for the fifth spot.  Why?  Because Sonnanstine pitched 193.1 innings last season, and had a solid year doing it.

I like Price starting the year in Triple-A.  I also like Price joining the big squad in May after what is sure to be a quick start in the minors, a la Evan Longoria in 2008.

How swift has the Tampa Bay Rays reversal of fortune been?  In their cuts on March 16th, the Rays sent starting pitchers Mitch Talbot and Wade Davis down to the minors.  Davis, 23, has 605 strikeouts in 609 minor league innings, and struck out 55 batters in 53 innings with a 2.72 ERA at Triple-A last season.  Talbot, 25, posted a 141/35 K:BB ratio in Triple-A last season and has gone 13-9 in each of his two previous seasons.

And these are two guys with no chance of making the major league rotation.

Image via Wikipedia

Wanna talk potential disasters?  With defensive specialist B.J. Upton slated to miss the start of the season while recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, and recently injured backup speedster Fernando Perez out until June, Gabe Kapler is currently Tampa’s best bet in centerfield.  Kapler hasn’t been a full time regular since 2001, and missed all of 2007 because he was coaching in the minor leagues.

In all likelihood, the Rays would platoon Ben Zobrist, Gabe Gross, Justin Ruggiano, and Kapler until they found a combination that worked.  Interesting though – what does it say about Carl Crawford and Pat Burrell that moving Crawford to center and having Burrell play left isn’t on the table?

The Tampa Bay Rays have a roster filled with humorous coincidences.  Here are just some of them:

• Gabe Kapler missed all of 2007 while serving as a minor league coach in the Boston Red Sox farm system, but then decided that he still had what it takes to play major league ball and he made a comeback.  Teammate Troy Percival did the exact same thing, coaching in the Angels minor league system before making his comeback in 2007.
• This will be the third team that Percival and second baseman Adam Kennedy have played on together – they were teammates on the 2002 World Series Champion Anaheim Angels and with the Cardinals in 2007.

• This will also be the third time Gabe Kapler and Carlos Pena have played on the same team in the same season, after Texas (2001) and Boston (2006).

• Jason Isringhausen and Scott Kazmir were the subjects of two of the New York Mets worst trades of all time.  In 1999 the Mets sent Isringhausen and Greg McMichael to the A’s for Billy Taylor (go look up Billy Taylor and see how surprised you are by his stats).  In 2004 the Mets traded Kazmir and Jose Diaz to the Rays for Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano.

• Gabe Gross played 93 games in the outfield for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007 before being traded to the Rays in 2008.  His replacement on the Brewers was Gabe Kapler, who played 96 games for the Brewers in 2008 before signing with the Rays in 2009.

If you believe that professional athletes only have so many innings/minutes/downs in their career, regardless of their age (a theory floated recently about Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James), we have to start wondering now about Carl Crawford.  As hard as it is to believe, Crawford is only 27 but will be entering his eight season (seventh full season).  Crawford is currently ninth amongst active players with 302 stolen bases and fourth amongst active players with 84 triples.  But Crawford missed 53 games last season with balky hamstrings and a finger injury, stole less than half as many bases (25) than he has in any other season, and has hit as many triples in the last two years combined (19) as he did in just one season in 2004.  Is it possible that Crawford is 27 going on 30?  Is Crawford already a grizzlied veteran despite his age?

Only time will tell.

In my first Rays post of this season, I suggested that now is the time to trade Scott Kazmir.  Since that is an unlikely move, I will hedge a bit – now is the time to trade some pitching, period.  The Edwin Jackson to the Tigers for Matt Joyce move was a good start, but I think more moves should be made.

Why?  Well, for one thing pitching prospects are notoriously flaky.  Think Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel, Paul Wilson, and Kris Benson.  Even when guys make it, sometimes they don’t make it – think Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Dontrelle Willis.

Right now the Tampa Bay Rays have ten pitchers who could start somewhere in the major leagues right now, and they are having outfield issues trying to shift around Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross.

Do you think that Baltimore or Pittsburgh or Washington or Cincinnati or Kansas City might part with an above average everyday outfielder if it meant they could insert Mitch Talbot or Wade Davis into their rotation?  I do.

As my final thought, amidst all the talk about the Tampa Bay Rays embarrassment of pitching riches, here’s a little perspective, a little reminder of Devil Rays past – the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks came into existence in the same year, 1998.  The Arizona Diamondbacks franchise leader in career shutouts Randy Johnson, with 14, followed by Brandon Webb (8), and Curt Schilling (5).  In fact, Brandon Webb once pitched three straight shutouts.  On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays franchise leader in that same statistic is Rolando Arroyo.

He had two.

Asher B. Chancey also writes for Baseball Evolution and you can read his work there by following this link.

Related posts:

1. Breaking News: The Rays Are Sellers, and Looking Towards 2010
2. The Current Mindset of the Rays
3. The Rays After 40 Games

The Chicago Cubs and their fans can congratulate themselves on a page-turning 2008 season. In what was the centennial year of World Series drought for the lovable losers, the Cubs managed to convince their fans that this was “The Year” before being summarily dismissed from the post-season by the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In the process, the expectations became so high, the disappointment so deep, that the Cubs joined the fraternity of teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, and a handful of others for which merely getting to the playoffs is no longer good enough.

For the Cubs, this is a huge moment.

Perhaps now the Cubs can get serious about winning.  If the Cubs make the playoffs again in 2009, we won’t see any stories featuring teary-eyed men on Sheffield Avenue talking about seeing something their grandfathers never got to see.  Gone will be the boisterous mobs of Cubs fans with euphoric “I can’t believe this is happening!” looks on their faces.  Like fans of teams with winning traditions, Cubs fans may taste the post-season in 2009, but they won’t get all giddy until the other team is from the American League.

If the Cubs are going to make the post-season this year, it will have to be without one of the key players to the last three Cubs playoff appearance, Kerry Wood.  In the last ten years, the Cubs’ fate has been tied to Wood’s right arm.  Wood, who led the team in saves in 2008, is now a Cleveland Indian, leaving Carlos Marmol to take over the closer role for the Cubs.  Marmol is terrific when he is on, but can also melt down for games at a time.  This move also makes the Cubs bullpen less deep, with a selection of unproven arms being counted upon to get through the late innings.

The Cubs will also be without Rich Hill on the mound in 2009, which is a mixed blessing.  After showing tons of promise in recent years, Hill struggled mightily with his control in 2008 and spent most of the year in the minors.  While it may feel good for Cubs fans to not have to count on their own version of Rick Ankiel again this year, it has to scare them to death to see Sean Marshall and Aaron Heilman on the depth chart.  While the Cubs rotation looks good with Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, and Ryan Dempster in the front four, the team is a Harden injury or Dempster return to earth to sending Aaron Heilman to the mound every fifth day.

On offense, I’ll let you in on a little secret – Wrigley Field helps the hitters.  Unfortunately, two of the Cubs’ biggest stars cannot perform on the road the way they do at Wrigley – Derrek Lee (15 of 20 homers at home) and Aramis Ramirez (..324/.440/.600 at home, .254/.315/.437 on the road). This can absolutely kill a team.

Another little secret is that after making one of the most disappointing free agent acquisitions in all of baseball in the 2007-2008 off-season, the Cubs made what may be the most disappointing acquisition in all of baseball again in the 2008-2009 off-season when they signed Milton Bradley to a three year, $30 million deal.  For one thing, this is a guy who tore his ACL two seasons ago and spent all of last season as the Rangers designated hitter.  But even completely healthy, Bradley’s credentials are problematic.

On the surface, Bradley had an amazing year with the Texas Rangers in 2008, leading the American League in on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+, and batting runs despite playing in only 122 games.  However, offensive success in the Ballpark at Arlington is not hard to come by, and teams have made fools of themselves giving big contracts to guys coming off big years for the Rangers – see Gary Matthews, Jr., Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Dellucci, Ruben Sierra, Kevin Mench.  For Bradley’s part, he is a much better hitter than those guys, but his home/road splits still scare you to death – 16/6 homeruns at home versus on the road, .358/.290 average, and 1.145/.872 OPS.  Throw in Bradley’s ability to self-destruct – and the fact that he has never lasted three season with ANY team – and this is a very risky contract for the Cubs to have undertaken.

Bradley joins other recent high-priced acquisitions Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield.  Soriano is probably the most underrated defensive outfielder in baseball, which coming in left field is actually not a very big deal but certainly worth noting.  He is consistently elite in terms of range and he somehow managed 10 outfield assists in just 108 games there last year.  At the plate, he hit 29 homeruns in 109 games.  Imagine how many he could hit if he is completely healthy this year.

Image via Wikipedia

While the Cubs need Soriano to be healthy to positively impact the team, only Fukudome’s absence is a positive for Chicago.  His meager .359 on-base percentage is his strongest attribute, and his 10 homeruns and 12 stolen bases make him the Sean Casey of outfielders, without the upside.  The funny thing about Fukudome is that the only reason he looks like a major leaguer is because of playing in Wrigley Field – in 75 games away from the Friendly Confines in 2008, Fukudome put up a .225/.322/.333 with four homeruns.  Not good.  He is very much in danger of become to the Cubs what Kei Igawa has become for the Yankees – a high-priced Triple-A player.

It is not completely clear why the Cubs decided to acquire Aaron Miles.  Sure, the Cubs traded Mark DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians in what can only be described as robbery (how the Indians parted with Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub for an aging, overrated middle infielder who DEFINITELY uses HGH is beyond me).  But that didn’t mean they needs to replace him with a guy who is just as old and inferior to DeRosa on both offense and defense.  In Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, the Cubs have two middle infielders who have been playing together since their college days who are a) both in their prime; b) both adequate defenders; c) both light hitters who know how to get on base; and d) both better than Aaron Miles. But whatever. Watch for Miles to get off to a wicked start before finishing the season with a .270/.320/.340.

The departure of Kerry Wood brings to a close the saddest chapter of this generation of Cub-Fandom: the “It-Could-Only-Happen-to-Us” failure of the Kerry Wood/Mark Prior Era.  A mere six years ago Wood/Prior looked to become the greatest pitching duo in baseball history.  But their success was fleeting, and their run was short.  For all the brilliance and beauty that Kerry and Mark displayed early in their careers, the dismay and disappointment has been at times overwhelming.  I don’t know if I speak for all Cubs fans, but there can be no doubt that there will always be a not insubstantial part of my heart that wishes it could be the fall of 2003 all over again, and perhaps even forever.

One thing is for sure:  2009 will not be 2003.  And it probably won’t be 2008 either.  Expect only the weakness of the NL Central to keep the Cubs afloat this season.

Asher B. Chancey also writes for Baseball Evolution and you can read his work there by following this link.

Related posts:

1. Cubs Reflections on Being in First Place
2. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009