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-T.S. Eliot, the Wasteland

_It’s been an interesting April here in Blue Jay land.  It’s been something of purgatory for the Jays, so far, with many key players from better-than-you-thought late aughts teams — Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen, Marco Scutaro, Alexis Rios – gone, but many of the guys who are slated (at least in our dreams) to be the next great Jays team may not yet make major-league contributions.  So we are left with a lot of in-betweeners playing key roles, guys like Jose Bautista, John Buck, Brian Tallet and Dana Eveland getting a ton of face time.   Only 4 of the 9 players currently making up the Jays’ starting lineup have anything resembling a future in a Blue Jays uniform.

One piece of the future who is up with the big team has been Travis Snider, and while the results haven’t been as expected (.127/.257/.254), there are some reasons to be optimistic going forward.  He has a 23.4% line drive rate (14.9% last season in the bigs) and has seen over 4 pitches per plate appearance (3.6 P/PA last season).  He is also walking 15% of the time (10.5% in 2009), while striking out 25% of the time (a third of the time in 2009) and a ridiculous .133 BABIP.  Give him time.

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_Adam Lind is doing his best to show that his huge 2009 wasn’t a fluke and has been hitting the ball well of late.  Aaron Hill got off to a slow start, hampered by a hamstring injury, but is back now.  Vernon Wells has turned heads with a huge start to the 2010 season (.333/.400/.716) with 17 extra base hits in 21 games.  On the pitching side, the returning Shaun Marcum has been mostly terrific while with sophomore southpaw Ricky Romero, you can omit mostly from that construction.

The others have been either better than expected (Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez) or not (John Buck, Lyle Overbay, Brian Tallet), up and down (Dana Eveland, pretty much the whole bullpen), or hurt (Edwin Encarnacion) but let’s face it – it really doesn’t matter unless you thought that someone was going to give up a lot for one of these fellows in a trade.

The important thing is who will man these positions going forward, not who is keeping their places warm now.  First base prospect Brett Wallace is tearing up AAA and looking like a viable everyday player down the stretch if the Jays find a place to stash Overbay.  Catcher J.P. Arencibia is hitting very well in AAA himself in an effort to rehabilitate his prospect status after a terrible and injury-hampered 2009 and has made strides on defense.

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Lefty starter Brett Cecil has already found himself promoted to the bigs after a hot start and the early returns have been quite good.  Fellow lefty starters Marc Rzepczynski (broken finger) and Brad Mills (rib injury in 2009, but off to a great start in AAA) don’t look to be all that far behind.  The Brandon Morrow experiment is ongoing.  Kyle Drabek and Zach Stewart, starting pitchers that came back in the trades for Halladay and Rolen respectively, are pitching at AA and are having some significant, if qualified, success there, while 2009 first-round pick Chad Jenkins just had his first dominant start (8 shutout innings, striking out 9 and walking one) in A ball.  Exciting young starter Henderson Alvarez is mowing them down in high-A ball, too.  And there are some early discouraging performances and injuries in the minors, too.

But this is what really matters, not whether Randy Ruiz should be seeing more at-bats than Lyle Overbay (he shouldn’t) at first, whether Jose Bautista is really good enough to play every day (so far, so good, though the platoon splits aren’t favorable), or whether manager Cito Gaston has been missing opportunities to pinch-hit (almost certainly yes).

For my part, I’m enjoying 2010, and plan on enjoying it even more as the pieces of the future play increasingly important roles on the team.  That may take some time, so patience is required at this point.  I don’t expect unqualified success, but it will be fun to see!

When my partner in crime, Tom, penned his last epistle about our beloved azure corvidae, things were just going great in the

the people so suddenly jumping off of it. Folks decried that the Jays were pretenders who fattened up against weak teams but now the real Jays were showing themselves.  The truth, though, is that the Jays are neither as fantastic as their April play would have you assume, nor as dismal as they were during that 9-game losing streak. Since that losing streak, the Jays are 12-10 (.545), and, well, that’s about the kind of team they are. Not great, not terrible, but a reasonably well-constructed team with strengths and weaknesses. Currently, the Jays sit 6 games over .500 (39-33), tied for the lead in the American League wild card race with the New York Yankees.  That’s not such a bad place to be with the season nearing the halfway mark. And the Jays have managed that without significant contributions from Alex Rios (.774 OPS, he has picked it up of late) and Vernon Wells (.688 OPS, though he, too, has come on a bit recently).

Marco Scutaro continues to defy any rational expectations, reaching base at a stellar .397 clip and playing world-class defense at shortstop.  Scott Rolen’s days of hitting 30+ home runs may be long gone, but Rolen, too, is playing incredible defense, providing highlight reel plays on an almost daily basis, and hitting .332/.396/.485 for good measure.  Aaron Hill has fallen off a bit recently but is still doing the job on both sides of the ball, and Lyle Overbay is having a career year so far (.938 OPS) at the plate and playing his usual stellar defense.  Adam Lind is having a breakout season with a .307/.381/.540 line, 22 doubles, and 14 home runs and he has been particularly hot in June.

You might have noticed a trend in the rundown of the Jays’ offensive contributors – reference to their stellar defense.  The Jays have one of the best defenses in the league, and that’s gone a long way to helping the pitching staff cope with a medical report longer than an ER ward.  Shaun Marcum, the second-best starter on a fantastic pitching staff last season – Tommy John surgery.  Dustin McGowan, once one of the better-looking young arms in the league – labrum repair surgery.  Jesse Litsch, two seasons of better than 120

ERA+ before his 24th birthday – Tommy John Surgery.  Casey Janssen, considered the number 4 starter heading into camp this year – continued problems stemming from 2008 labrum repair surgery. Ricky Romero – missed time due to an oblique strain.  And most recently, Roy Halladay – strained groin.  With all those injuries, it’s a wonder that the Jays’ starting corps have been able to hold things together, and their stellar defense deserves a lot of the credit.

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That’s not to say that the Jays’ starters haven’t been equally deserving, if not more so, however.  Rookie pitchers Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond – all have done a great job, as well as long-reliever turned starter Brian Tallet.  And while the Jays’ pen has been mercurial at times, particularly ex-closer B.J. Ryan, generally speaking they have gotten the job done, though the loss of closer Scott Downs is a big blow and the fact that he sprained his big toe running out of the batters box in an interleague game makes it sting all the more.

So, when you think Jays, don’t think “flash-in-the-pan April” or “showed-their-true-colours May.”  Think of a team that is contending with a ridiculous injury list and two AL East juggernauts and is still very much in this fight almost halfway through the season.  And if you like to root for the little guy doing his best in trying circumstances, send a few cheers our way, eh?

So spring training is over, the season is underway, and the Jays have gotten off to a decent start – not that it has changed any of the seemingly

After a spring training pitched battle, the Jays’ rotation was rounded out with former first-round pick Ricky Romero, surely much to the delight of GM J.P. Ricciardi, who is still the victim of scorn for drafting Romero ahead of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, and Colby Rasmus.  Romero started off the season, and his big league career, with a matchup against the Tigers and fellow first-rounder Rick Porcello, the first time in baseball history that two former first-round draft picks have opposed one another in each pitcher’s major-league debut.  Romero pitched excellently and got the better of the matchup and the win, though Porcello also did quite well.  Romero pitched great his second time out too, though he was denied the win through no fault of his own.

The Jays’ top pitching prospect, Brett Cecil, a sandwich pick in 2007 who has risen very quickly through the system, made a bid for the starting rotation as well but ultimately was sent to the minors to work on his consistency, his command, and his delivery (which apparently tips the pitch as the ball is released).  My guess is we will see Cecil before June 1^st.  Another young pitcher who was sent down was Brad Mills, yet another lefthander (like Romero, Cecil, and third starter David Purcey) and one who the Jays seem to like a lot.  With just a handful of starts in AA, though, the Jays ultimately decided that Mills could use just a little more experience in the high minors.  He’s another guy that is likely to contribute in 2009, as is Casey Janssen, a former top 10 Jays prospect who did a great job in the Jays’ bullpen in 2007 but missed all of 2008 to labrum surgery.  Janssen’s recovery has been somewhat slowed recently, but word is that he is likely to be ready to start in the majors sometime in May and reports on his pitching have been quite encouraging.

With all these bright lights on the horizon, why is the outlook on the Jays for 2009 so pessimistic?  Certainly the offense should be better, given that the Jays are returning all the major offensive contributors from 2008 and can expect a full season of wunderkid Travis Snider and young slugger Adam Lind, who has gotten off to a very fast start, not to mention Aaron Hill, who missed most of 2008 due to a nightmarish set of post-concussion symptoms but is healthy and off to a great start in 2009.  The Jays are also hoping for healthier seasons from Lyle Overbay, who played regularly in 2008 but experienced problems due to a broken hand in 2007, Scott Rolen, and Vernon Wells, who strained a hamstring this spring but was back in plenty of time to start the season in centrefield.  That said, Wells’ hamstring strain was the same hamstring he hurt late in 2008, so there are concerns it could be a chronic problem.

Well to answer the question, the Jays are relying, to a great extent, on a set of young starters to hold the line after Roy Halladay.  The most experienced among them, Jesse Litsch, is only 24 and his recent injury has brought into even harsher focus the lack of experience among the Jays’ starting corps..  Folks see 4 of 5 rotation spots filled with young and/or inexperienced pitchers and they figure, understandably so, that it’s going to be a long season.  They may well be right, but, for my part, I am looking forward to seeing the youngsters pitch and there is no shortage of options should the first line falter.  Maybe I’m just seeing the world though azure-colored glasses after a great start to the season, but I’m having a hard time believing the Jays will be in a battle to stay out of the cellar.

Hugo also writes for Bluebird Banter. Please follow the link provided to read his work there.

Hi everyone, and greetings from the great white north (metaphorically speaking, in my case– I actually live in Washington DC).  I’m Hugo, and Rincewind and I (more on that later) run

If you forgot that Toronto has a major-league baseball team this offseason, you can be forgiven, since we’ve been in the news only as the team that sent A.J. Burnett over to his new digs in the Bronx.  It’s been strange, JP Ricciardi hasn’t even accused a player he wasn’t able to get of not liking baseball (although, let’s face it – whoever Riccardi’s new bosses are at Rogers Communications, they don’t seem to have much of an affection for the game themselves).

Yes, it’s true, the economy isn’t doing so well (Though you wouldn’t know from a look at the ledgers of Rogers Communications, which continues to post huge profits, at least last quarter.  People don’t seem to cut back on TV, internet, or cell phones as a first resort in tough economic times).  Anyway, it makes sense that baseball, and the Jays, aren’t immune from the sluggish economy.  But when you’re biggest offseason acquisition (thus far) is Matt Clement on a minor-league deal, a guy coming off major shoulder surgery and who hasn’t pitched in the majors since a disastrous 12-start stint in 2006, that’s not belt-tightening, it’s a hunger strike.

What is upsetting about the offseason to us Jays’ fans is that, if you look at it from the right way, the Jays really should’ve been spending this offseason.  If you look behind the win-loss record (86-76), you see a team that scored 714 runs and allowed only 610, good for a +104 run differential and a Pythagorean record of 93-69.  In fact, as luck is defined by deviation from expected record, the Jays were the unluckiest team in the league last season, and they still managed to win 86 games.  According to run differential, the Jays were the 4^th best team in all of baseball last year (behind the Sox, the Phillies, and the Cubs) and 1 run ahead of the AL East winning Tampa Bay Rays.  It wouldn’t have taken but a drop of luck, and the Jays would’ve been a 95-game winner, which would have tied them with the Red Sox for the wild card.

Behind a lights-out starting pitching staff consisting of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, a crazy-deep bullpen (the best in baseball) and an excellent defense, the Jays allowed, by far, the fewest runs of any team in the AL.  In fact, they allowed the fewest runs of any team in baseball.   Unfortunately for the 2008 Jays, they also scored the 4^th fewest runs in the AL, dragged down by horrible performance at DH and left-field, two offense-first lineup spots (well, one offense-first spot and one offense-only spot).

With a number of hitting-first types: Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley and, dare-I-say-it? Manny Ramirez on the free agent market, one would’ve thought that the Jays, who have not been afraid to spend over the last several years, would pounce on one of these hitters, tweak a few other things, and plan for the parade to roll down Yonge Street.   Some of these players are still on the market, but the Jays haven’t so much as squeaked about any of them, nor have they signed any pitchers, other than Matt Clement and fellow shoulder-casualty Mike Maroth, to fill the holes in the rotation left by A.J. Burnett, who left to don the accursed pinstripes, and Shaun Marcum, who, after a brilliant 2008, went under the knife in September for ligament replacement surgery.

That said, even though no big names have been brought in, there’s reason for Jays’ fans to be optimistic.  Other than Marcum and Burnett, all the significant contributors to the 2008 Jays are back, and none of the duds are.  Adam Lind and wunderkind Travis Snider are set to start their first full seasons in the bigs at the aforementioned DH and LF spots, and while the two lefties will doubtless undergo some growing pains, they are all but sure to better what their positional predecessors managed (Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench managed 71, 69, 68, 81 OPS+es, respectively, over 600 soul-crushing at-bats last season).   Aaron Hill, an exceptional fielder and good hitter, will be back manning the keystone after an admirable fill-in job by Joe Inglett.  Vernon Wells had a very good season in 2008  (124 OPS+) marred by a wrist he broke on a diving catch in center field.  And a rejuvenated Alex Rios hit like we Jays fans expect him to (.299/.336/.540) after the all-star break.

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Yes, Marcum and Burnett will be missed in 2009, but the Jays return an incredible bullpenand the best pitcher in the AL (sorry C.C.) as well as a cast of young starters (Jesse Litsch, Casey Janssen, Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Dustin McGowan, who may be back by May) more than capable of filling the shoes of the dearly departed.  It has been a long, cold, and quiet winter, but I’m excited to see the kids, and I have a feeling 2009 looks a lot better for the Jays than many folks (particularly those in the Toronto media) think they will.  If you can’t get optimistic about your team in late January and early February, when baseball withdrawal kicks into high-gear, you’re not a baseball fan (well, or you root for the Pirates).

Hugo also writes for Bluebird Banter. Please follow the link provided to read his and Rincewind’s work there.