The following article was originally posted at James’ site Astros County back on July 11th!

It’s not often you get an email in church that makes you go, “Whoa!” in the middle of the Lord’s Supper. But that’s exactly what happened this morning.

Alyson Footer first broke this morning that Sean Berry has been relieved of his duties as Astros “hitting” coach, and Jeff Bagwell is in uniform and will be in the dugout today.

First, some thoughts:

*Hopefully Bagwell will run his finger over his throat at Mark McGwire at some point during today’s game.

*Sean Berry deserves a lot of the blame for how terrible the Astros have been. But not all of it. Footer and Ed Wade both said that Berry was one of the hardest-working and most-prepared coaches they had seen. We don’t see how much he works with the “hitters” (and yes, I use that term loosely). He can work with the players for ten or twelve hours after the game, preventing them from sleeping or seeing their families. But when it’s game time, he can’t make Carlos Lee chase a ball halfway down the first base line.

*Ed Wade (it’s a multi-tweet quote, so just go to Footer’s feed for the whole thing):
In 34 years in baseball I think Sean was the best prepared hitting coach I’ve been around. But the results speak for themselves. We need to figure this out. Not just the front office level, but the players level as well. Sean has become somewhat of a victim of circumstance this year because of the fact that our offense has struggled…. We know we’re not the ’27 Yankees. But we’re better than this. And if we’re not better than this, we need to use the time remaining to assess the talent on the club and act accordingly. A lot of this falls to the players.”

Let’s evaluate. From 2007-last night’s game, the Astros had hit:
2007: (1457×5605) .260/.330/.412 – 2311 total bases
2008: (1432×5451) .263/.323/.415 – 2261 total bases
2009: (1415×5436) .260/.319/.400 – 2175 total bases
2010: (691×2916) .237/.295/.348 – 1015 total bases

That works out to be 4995×19408, or a .257 average and a .400 SLG percentage. Maybe some time soon we’ll get the OBP, but not right now, because I’m too amped up to do any more math. But what we really need to see is that, in his best year, the Astros topped out at a .330 on-base percentage. The Astros are last in walks in 2010, with 233, or 2.64 per game.

For a significant portion of the season we ran a ’62 Mets watch. And when you’re comparing your offense – in every way unfavorably – to one of the worst teams of all time, something had to be done. And the Astros aren’t going to fire Carlos Lee.

(And for the record, through 88 games, the ’62 Mets were hitting .238/.318/.361).

Wade is right, Berry is a victim of circumstance, and the Astros just got a guy fired. Berry has been given the opportunity to stay on in a development role within the organization, but hasn’t decided if he’ll accept.

So now we get to Jeff Bagwell as hitting coach. This is more of a functional role, as opposed to a figurehead role for Bagwell. It may sell some tickets, though I don’t know who buys tickets to see the hitting coach (unless Bagwell donkey kicks Carlos Lee out of the cage and shows him how it’s done). But Bagwell has been around a lot of the guys the Astros will ideally be bringing up as a special assistant to the GM for the past four years.

Yet we do know that Bagwell is a career .297/.408/.540 hitter. Shut your sloppy mouth about doing steroids or crouching in the box. Bagwell is a consummate professional, and represents a bridge from the past to the future. Footer says he’ll sign on for the rest of the season, and be re-evaluated at the end of the season.

Does it guarantee success? Hell, and no, it doesn’t. The Cardinals are hitting .260 as a team (7th in the NL) in McGwire’s first season as hitting coach, though their .745 OPS is 5th in the National League.

But it generates some excitement, and makes things a little interesting, and certainly brings a face to the bench who has experience in dealing with Chris Johnson, Jason Castro, Hunter Pence, and those who will arrive in 2011-2012.

Image via Wikipedia

Okay, so the two guys who are likely to be moved are obviously Berkman and Oswalt. Oswalt has the highest trade value, since he’s been whining over the last month or so, and is more motivated to apparently get out of dodge.

Citizen Spruce asked the following question:

All right, Constable, a question for you: What would you like to see the Astros get in return if they were going to trade Roy?

Well, the Mets report this morning drew some good comments:

From OremLK:

They have several good SS/2B prospects: one of Ruben Tejeda, Wilmer Flores, or Reese Havens would all be a good centerpiece. Pitchers Brad Holt or Jeurys Familia could be intriguing throw-ins….There’s no way you’re going to get multiple ML ready A-/B+ prospects for Oswalt… not on that contract. The best case is probably more like a couple B- guys and filler, and maybe not even that.

From Joe:

Havens and Familia with a C guy…I love how everyone on clutchfans.net thinks we will easy net Mejia, Davis, and Havens because they have no clue how Oswalt’s value has diminished over the past three years. Funny to hear someone who actually has a grasp on the truth.

Roy Oswalt Photo by Icom SMI

The crux of this is what the Astros want in return. You all know that I believe my own conspiracy theory that Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon to force Detroit into signing Jose Valverde, thus getting two extra draft picks.

Under my own, possibly deluded, thinking, I could see how the Astros would be willing to eat some (or most) of Roy’s contract to get better prospects and replenish the top of the farm system.

If it’s just salary relief, then a couple of B/C prospects might get the job done. If the Astros want someone like Ike Davis (whom I have a hard time believing the Mets would part with), then they will have to eat a part of his contract.

The whole Trade Oswalt scenario comes down to expectations, and what the Astros are out to accomplish. But as John Royal points out this morning, this Oswalt v. Houston Astros Base Ball Club could get ugly. The more Oswalt whines, the worse the trade market will get for Easy Eddie. I think we’ve all made peace with the fact that Oswalt is going to get sent to a farm in Connecticut, where he’ll get to run with other pitchers, but let’s hope that he keeps the whining to a minimum so as not to sink what teams are willing to do to get him.

Today we’re featuring an incredible interview with Greg Rajan, sports writer for the Corpus Christi Caller-Times. He has covered the team since its inception, and we’ve done these e-mail interviews with a number of people – this is, by far, the most extensive. Captip to Greg for taking the time to answer these questions thoroughly. Let’s get to it:

Astros County: Who are the players that stand out for the Hooks that we can expect to see in an Astros uniform in 2010/2011?

Greg Rajan: I would say the two players on the current Hooks roster who have a shot to make it to Houston next year are Jason Castro and Chia-Jen Lo. Both are guys on the fast track, as you can see by how little time they spent in the A-ball ranks before coming to Corpus Christi. I would be surprised if Castro isn’t given every opportunity to be the starting catcher in 2010. As for Lo, he has a nice arm and certainly given the Astros’ bullpen woes of recent years, would be a welcome addition if he can continue to improve. Drew Locke is an intriguing guy, but it’s hard to gauge his standing in the organization right now. You usually don’t see many guys with 100-plus RBI still in the Texas League in mid-August. Other than those three guys, the prospect pool is rather thin at Double-A right now.

AC: How does Jason Castro look – his stats certainly indicate that Double-A hasn’t been much of a problem for him.

GR: Castro has made pretty much a seamless transition to Double-A. Given the demands of the catcher position and having to learn a new staff at near the midpoint of the season, he’s done remarkably well. I’ve covered the team since its inception and it’s safe to say Castro is among only a handful of guy where you know that it’s not a matter of if they make it to the majors, but when. A couple of other guys who had that trait were Hunter Pence and Ben Zobrist. When J.R. Towles was here two years ago as part of his rocket-like ascent through the system, I don’t think anybody thought “catcher of the future” when they watched him. You immediately think that with Castro. While he hasn’t put up the power numbers yet in Double-A, that should come. His defense is pretty impressive.

AC: Has Drew Locke’s season been as unbelievable as it looks? What is his approach to the game?

GR: Locke’s season really has been remarkable. When the year started, he was the fourth outfielder behind Collin DeLome, Josh Flores and Mitch Einertson. In hindsight, that seems almost ridiculous. Locke has been pretty consistent, but to me the most impressive part of his season was how he rebounded from hitting .238 in June. A lot of guys during their second turn through the Texas League will be exposed. Locke, however, made the necessary adjustments and regained his early season form. I’m not sure if there’s anything all that unique about his approach to the game. He’s a pretty patient hitter who will look for his pitch and hit it. He has a plan and he sticks to it. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Locke after this season. The Astros will have to protect him because he surely would get taken in the Rule V draft this winter. But where do they play him with an entrenched Lee-Bourn-Pence outfield? I wondered if they might try Locke out at second or third in the instructional league this fall, but I’m not sure how well he’d take to those positions. If he keeps hitting like he has this year, they will find a place to play him.

AC: What effect has Mitch Einertson’s suspension had on the team?

GR: Honestly, I’m not sure if it’s had any effect. From talking to people when the suspension went down, they were sad for Einertson, but nobody seemed to dwell on his absence. The thing a lot of people don’t realize about minor league baseball is that it’s essentially an individual sport within a team framework. Everybody in the minors is there to move up, from the players to the trainers. So in that respect, there’s a degree of selfishness involved. So while Einertson will be missed because he’s a genuinely nice guy who everyone liked, his absence creates an opportunity for somebody else.

AC:What has been the reaction – team and fan – to Aaron Boone‘s rehab return?

GR: I think it’s a great story that he’s returned so soon after open heart surgery, but it’s not quite like Jeff Bagwell being here in 2005 or Roger Clemens‘ tuneup start in 2006. Had Boone hit his memorable ALCS homer last fall instead of six years ago, maybe there’s more of a buzz about his presence here. But other than polite applause every time he comes to bat, I can’t say the fans have been particularly captivated by Boone’s presence. As far as the team, I’m sure they like having a big leaguer around because those guys usually spring for the postgame spread during rehab assignments. Boone has been a professional and I think any leadership he provides while he’s here is by example more than words.

Unreal insight from Greg.

So we briefly touched on this a while back at Astros County, but I thought…off day and all, we can revisit it a little more closely (editor’s note: this was written during the All Star Break). This is the issue of attendance among MLB teams, specifically the Astros, from 2008 to 2009. And this is a good time to look at it, since the Astros of 2008 have played the same number of home games as the Astros of 2009 (again, as of the All Star Break).

Let’s look at some of the basic stats…

Total attendance through 47 home games in 2008: 1,710,939 (8th in MLB)
Average attendance through 47 home games in 2008: 36,403 (10th in MLB)

Total attendance through 47 home games in 2009: 1,373,284 (11th in MLB)
Average attendance through 47 home games in 2009: 29,432 (13th in MLB)

Difference from 2008 to 2009: -327,655 (3rd biggest drop off in MLB)
Difference in per-game average: -6,971 (also 3rd biggest drop off in MLB)

That’s a -19.8% difference from 2008 to 2009, something I’m sure Run-DMc (owner Drayton McLane to you newbies) has an eye on. But while your initial thought may be for the Astros to “put a better team on the field,” an idea with which we would not argue, there are some other reasons for such a drop off. Want to hear them? I thought you might…

First let’s take into account games versus the Astros’ chief “rivals,” which we’ll call the Cubs and Cardinals. By the All-Star Break 2008, the Astros had played 9 home games against the Cubs and Cardinals, which averaged 35,581 fans per game. To this point in the 2009 season, the Astros have played 8 home games against the Cubs, but none yet against the Cardinals. Those eight Cubs games averaged just under 32,099 fans.

Image via Wikipedia

We should also look at the number of weekend home series. In 2008, the Astros enjoyed being at home during seven weekends in the first half; in two of those weekends the Astros played interleague series’ against the Yankees and Red Sox. This can’t be overlooked. The Astros had over 40,000 fans in eight games before the All-Star Break – six of those were during the Yankees and Red Sox’ visit to Minute Maid. Average crowd of the Yankees/Red Sox series? Just under 42,856 fans per game.

The 2009 Astros hosted three interleague series: Texas (over a weekend), Kansas City (mid-week), and Detroit (weekend).

So for interleague home games in 2008, average attendance was: 40,722
For interleague home games in 2009, average attendance was: 33,744

Interestingly enough, the Silver Boot portion of the schedule did see a decline from 2008 to 2009, but only by 340 fans total. So there’s a 62,000+ fan difference between the Yankees/Red Sox and Royals/Tigers in six games.

The 2009 Astros have also played seven weekend series at home, but instead of playing the Marlins, Rockies, Brewers, Phillies (Lidge’s first series back to Houston), Cardinals, Yankees, and Red Sox, in 2008 the Astros have played the Reds, Brewers, Padres, Rangers, Pirates, Tigers, and Nationals. Not exactly a star-studded weekend lineup, and it showed in the average attendance:

Average weekend series attendance in 2008 (Fri-Sun): 38,995
Average weekend series attendance in 2009 (Fri-Sun): 30,776

Holiday weekends are a major source of ticketing revenue, as well. And in 2008, the Astros played a 4-game Thursday-Sunday Memorial Day Weekend series against the Phillies at home (and were off on Memorial Day. No team should ever be off on Memorial Day). The Thursday game was rough going, with 29,263 paying fans, but Friday-Sunday games averaged 42,297 fans.

Not so in 2009. The Astros were in Pittsburgh over Memorial Day Weekend, and San Francisco over July 4 weekend. That means the two big summer holidays (before the All-Star Break), the lights were off and the roof was closed at Minute Maid Park. Even the 2008 mid-week series had impressive opponents, and as a result, impressive attendance. 2008′s schedule featured mid-week series against the Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers – meaning mid-week games were getting weekend revenues.

There is hope for the 2009 revenue, though. Coming back from the All-Star Break, the first two home series are against the Cards midweek, and the Mets over the weekend. There are home weekend series remaining against the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Labor Day Weekend with the Phillies, Pirates, and Reds. High-profile mid-week series remain against the Cardinals (twice), Giants, and Braves. So yes, the Astros’ attendance differential is down, and while we can chalk up a recession to account for part of it, it’s not the whole story.

The Lancaster JetHawks are the Astros High-A farm team in the California League. For the last few years, Lancaster was the Red Sox‘ California League team. That changed for 2009 when the Astros changed their affiliation.

Jeff Lasky has been with the JetHawks for what is now his 4th season. As the Director of Broadcasting / Media Relations, Jeff has an everyday perspective on the Astros’ prospects. Let’s get to it:

AC: What differences have you noticed – if any – from the way the Red Sox handled their High-A team to the Astros’ approach?

JL: There are some simple strategy things that are different. The Red Sox were a more patient team, grinding out more at bats, taking more pitches, trying to get into the bullpen that way. I think the Astros are a more aggressive team, looking to swing. The Astros run a lot more, although that may be the product of having so much speed on this team. We only had one player in two years with Boston steal 10 bases, and J.B. Shuck has already topped that. Because of the depth from the big league to the lower level of the minors, the Red Sox could afford to be very conservative in promoting players. The Astros are trying to be more aggressive in their promotions as they seek to fill out the system.

AC: Who do you come to the park excited to see play every day?

JL: I think Shuck is a lot of fun to watch. He handles the bat well with his ability to drive the ball the other way and bunt for hits. And he’s been very successful stealing bases. When he was here I would have said Chia-Jen Lo, as well.

AC: What is life like for a player in Lancaster, California?

JL: In most places there is so much of a grind that players don’t really get out and about all that much around town. Life consists of trying to get some sleep, going to work out, grabbing some lunch and maybe a nap, then heading to the ballpark. The Antelope Valley itself is a pretty quiet community and there aren’t a whole lot of extra-curriculars. But because we are in Los Angeles County, on off-days the players are close enough to be able to take advantage of all that L.A. offers, such as the beaches in Malibu, visits to Hollywood and Santa Monica, etc. I haven’t looked to see if the Astros come to Dodger Stadium in conjunction with an off-day, but it happened once with the Red Sox in Anaheim and a big group of players and staff went to the game.

AC: One of the signings we Astros fans were excited about this off-season was Chia-Jen Lo, what you can you tell us about him?

JL: Lo is the first big signing out of Taiwan for the Astros and he looks like a good one. He has a fastball that dominated at this level at 93 MPH or so with some movement and very good command. At this level with a fastball that good and command like that, you can get away with relying on it. At the higher levels, he’s going to have to establish his secondary pitches. We had a player here last year with Boston named Richie Lentz who threw 94-96, but they forced him to throw a lot of sliders just to get a feel with the pitch since they knew his fastball wouldn’t be enough once he moved up.

AC: How is Jason Castro handling his first season of professional baseball?

JL: Castro has done a very nice job in his first full-season. There is still a long way to go, of course, but what I have liked offensively is his consistency. He’s only had one mini-slump and has been pretty reliably hittting around .275 this year. He’s got a handful of homers, but also a lot of doubles. He’s walked a little more as the season has gone on. He drives the ball well to the gaps. He’s been fabulous defensively. Blocks balls well and he is tops in the league by gunning out around 60% of base stealers. There is no doubt that teams are running less with him back there. It’s tough for me to judge pitch-calling, of course. That’s a big aspect of being a catcher that is tough to get a good feel for unless you’re on the team as a pitcher or coach.

Thanks Jeff, and hey! Only three more years until we can get see these guys in Astros uniforms!

Coming off a year in which almost the entire team was overhauled and still were one big hurricane away from carrying a playoff chase into the final days of the season, the Astros were the first team this off-season to plead economic downturn, and it showed. GM Ed Wade, under orders from legendarily hands-on owner Drayton McLane, trimmed a projected 2009 payroll from $120 million to just over $100 million to compensate for a recession.

It was an off-season full of Plan Fs and Plan Gs. Let go were Brad Ausmus, Ty Wigginton and Randy Wolf. Brought in were Toby Hall, Aaron Boone and Mike Hampton. The biggest questions in the off-season were behind the plate, the starting rotation, and third base –  and I’m not entirely sure those questions have been answered.

The lack of depth at the minor-league level, ranked either at the bottom or very close to it from many sources, hurt the club in that there just weren’t the pieces available to get big deals done. It seems the biggest rumors about the Astros involved the players they did not sign: the Brewers and Padres could not find enough pieces to get a deal with Wade for Ben Sheets or Jake Peavy.

Humberto Quintero, J.R. Towles, and Rule 5 pick Lou Palmisano failed to distinguish themselves after Toby Hall suffered an arm injury, so Ed Wade went out and nabbed All-Star Ivan Rodriguez. Brandon Backe gave up a league-high 36 home runs in 2008, so Ed Wade signed Russ Ortiz and Clay Hensley to minor-league deals. When December signing Aaron Boone had to leave the Astros in March due to a heart complication, the Astros look poised to let prospect Chris Johnson give it a shot – unless Wade goes in another direction in the last week of Spring Training.

So there are plenty of questions abound about the Astros, but one aspect of the team in which there is no question is the bullpen. Anchored by $8 million closer Jose Valverde – NL saves leader for two years running – the bullpen is a mixture of veterans like LaTroy Hawkins and Doug Brocail – and youngsters like 2008 Rule 5 pick Wesley Wright. Behind Roy Oswalt in the rotation are uncertainties like Wandy Rodriguez, who is lights-out at home and flat-out suspect on the road; Brian Moehler, who stepped up in a major way for the Astros in 2008; the fifth starting pitcher in the rotation looks as though it belongs to Russ Ortiz, who hasn’t been solid since 2004. But nobody knows what to expect from #3 starter Mike Hampton, whose last season pitching in more than 13 games came in 2004.

Michael Bourn will start the season in center field after an atrocious 2008 campaign, but 2^nd-year manager Cecil Cooper is praising Bourn’s focus on plate discipline, bunting, and hitting to opposite fields. Kaz Matsui needs to be healthy for the Astros to compete after spending a lot of fluke time on the DL.

Cecil Cooper and Lance Berkman don’t see any reason the Astros can’t win 90+ games, but in many ways, the Astros aren’t just trying to catch lightning in a bottle – they’re trying to catch 2004’s lightning in a bottle. With stars Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Roy Oswalt’s careers peaking (or declining, depending on who you talk to), Wade and McLane look as though they are trying to keep the Astros competitive in a division in which no club has made a major impact. The 2005 NL Champion Astros weren’t supposed to do anything special, and neither are the 2009 version – but with superstars and veterans fitting around a minor rebuilding plan, anything can happen. And that includes winning – or losing – 90 games.

For more of James’ work check him out at Astros County