They are not calling it a fire sale.  Let’s get that out of the way first.

The GM meetings don’t usually bring much noise, and there were no major moves made by the Tigers during this round of meetings which wrapped up last night in Chicago.  But what we learned may give us a deep insight into the immediate and long-term future of the Detroit franchise.

News first broke Tuesday that the Tigers were at least listening to, and possibly even making offers on deals that included all-star right hander Edwin Jackson.  It was also reported that catcher Gerald Laird was made available by the Tigers.  Then Wednesday, straight out of a Lynn Henning wet dream, word spread that Detroit was open to dealing to the fray, all-star Curtis Granderson.  By the end of the day, all-star third baseman Brandon Inge’s name had been added.

Is this simply a case of a GM doing his due diligence and being open to talking about deals that might improve his club, deals that would routinely be spoken about in any given off season?  Or is there something bigger here?

I’ll not get into the economic state that the Detroit area finds itself in.  We all know what’s happened with the auto industry and the sky-high unemployment rate.  We also know that the Tigers have salary commitments for 2010 that they will not be able to move.  No GM, in this economy, will be persuaded to take on the bad contracts the Tigers would like to dump.

So it would appear that Dombrowski might be open to moving some of the team’s younger players like Jackson and Granderson in an attempt to restock the thinning farm system and hopefully bring back some pieces they can add to the major league roster for 2010.

But make no mistake, the economy does play a factor here.  Would the Tigers like to deal away the names that have been mentioned? In a perfect world, the easy answer is no.  Ideally, the Tigers would build their club around players like Jackson and Granderson.  They would like to have Laird as the mentor to Alex Avila behind the plate and they would want Inge’s glove manning the hot corner.

Image via Wikipedia

Or is it simply that Detroit is exploring the possibilities of selling off on Jackson when his value is at its peak?  If all are healthy, the Tigers appear to have a surplus of potential starting pitchers, none whose trade value is as high as Jackson’s (Verlander and Porcello obviously have higher value, but they aren’t going anywhere).

If the Tigers feel they can plug a hole at shortstop (for example) by trading Jackson and still have a solid group of starting pitchers, they would be fools not to do that.  Jackson would begin next season as the number three starter in Detroit, but there are others that can conceivably fill that role.  While neither Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, nor Armando Galarraga have inspired much confidence, all will be a part of the team next year.  If someone fails, Eddie Bonine and Zach Miner can step in as well.

I think there is a strong possibility that Jackson does end up getting dealt, but I doubt that Granderson does.  Granderson had a terrible season (excluding all the home runs) last year, so trading him makes little sense, especially at a still affordable $5 million next year.  With Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen penciled in as corner outfielders, the Tigers need Granderson in center.

As far as Laird and Inge go, Laird is arbitration eligible and will get a good-sized raise from his $2.7 million salary of a season ago.  Detroit may and should feel like there are cheaper options to nurture Avila along while splitting duties behind the plate.  Inexpensive backup-type catchers are seemingly always available, so there should be plenty of options in replacing Laird on the team, with minimal impact on the outcome of games.  For all that Laird brought to the 2009 Tigers defensively, the guy simply struggles with the bat.  Those catchers don’t cost $3.5 million per year.

Inge is entering the final year of his contract that pays him $6.3 million next season.  His first half of 2009 was amazing, but once he injured his knees, his offense fell off the map.  A healthy Inge is essential to this team, especially with the glove, but he has never been a strong hitter.  Trading Inge would free up some payroll that could be allocated to re-signing a Brandon Lyon or a Fernando Rodney, but it would also leave a gaping hole at third base.  If the Tigers could find a suitable replacement (and I don’t think that player is currently in the organization), it may be wise to make such a move.

(major hat tip, as always, to MLB Trade Rumors)

Editor’s note: This will be John’s last post here at Baseball Reflections & I personally wanted to tank him for his work and support over these months!

Detroit 5, Minnesota 6

Final Record 86-77 (second place)

Devastation.  That’s what I felt Tuesday night as the Twins celebrated following their 12th inning walk off, that’s what I’m feeling Wednesday morning as I write this.

The back and forth nature of this game made it a classic.  The stakes made it one of the greatest in recent memory.  As a Tiger fan, I think it may be easy to get so wrapped up in the disappointment of losing and miss that this was one of the great games in the last several years.

The long and short is that the Twins won the game on a walk-off single by Alexi Casilla, a player whose game last night and season this year might personify the Twins better than any other.  Casilla began the year as the starting second baseman in Minnesota.  He struggled and was sent to the minor leagues.  When he got back, Nick Punto had taken his job.  Now he is the Twins’ biggest hero.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

There is plenty of second guessing to be done now that the results are in.  Why was Fernando Rodney left out there for his fourth inning of work?  Why did Jim Leyland send Zach Miner back to the mound in the seventh after he had struggled in the sixth?  Why would you walk Delmon Young to get to Casilla when he was 3/5 in his career versus Rodney?

The answers no longer matter, there was no game for the Tigers on Wednesday or for the rest of the 2009 season.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Critics will call this Tigers team chokers.  They will note that Detroit is the first team to miss the playoffs after holding a three game lead with four to play.  What they forget is that the Twins won 17 of the last 21 games to pass them.  Let it be noted that three of those four losses came versus the Tigers.  Minnesota just stopped losing to anyone else.  A team that had played under .500 all year took off when two of their best hitters were lost for the season.  The Twins were a freight train.  There was no stopping them.

Cheers for

• Magglio Ordonez- Maggs got the scoring started with a run scoring single, then tied the game with a solo home run when hope appeared lost in the eighth.  It was the second straight game in which Magglio homered.  He had an amazing second half.

• Miguel Cabrera- for all he put himself through over the weekend, Cabrera delivered a double and a two-run homer in his first two at bats.  As Chip Caray noted, “Redemption, thy name is Cabrera.”

• Fernando Rodney- The numbers will show that Rodney allowed the tying run in the 10th and then the winning run in the 12th, but Rodney pitched his heart out and had to work around a misplayed triple that put the tying run on base in that 10th inning.  I don’t know, but I would guess he went up by at least five points in Leyland’s book.  Too soon?

• Rick Porcello- It feels like months ago that Porcello started this game.  He tied his career high with eight strike outs and pitched very well, all things considered.  It’s going to be fun watching him pitch in Detroit for years to come.

• The Minnesota Twins- They just stopped losing.  I would hope that this incredible run is remembered by history far more than the Tigers’ losses.  Detroit did not go 2-13 down the stretch or anything like that, Minnesota just caught fire and there was nothing that could stop them.  Congratulations to the Division Champs.  Now go kick the hell out of the Yankees.

Jeers to

• Zach Miner- Miner came up small in the biggest spot of the year, unable to keep Orlando Cabrera in the ballpark and turning a one run lead into a deficit.  He can be an effective pitcher, but he thinks he’s a starter.  Trade him to someone else that agrees.

• Ryan Raburn- Raburn helped the cause with two hits and he gunned down the winning run at the plate, but his defense cuts the other way, too.  Raburn leapt into (and not over) the wall on the Cabrera homer that gave Minnesota the lead, a more experienced outfielder would know to give himself more room to jump.  He also played Micheal Cuddyer’s single into a triple to lead off the 10th with a one run lead.  You absolutely have got to keep that ball in front of you, he did not.

What’s on tap

Sadly, nothing.  The Tigers end the season in second place after leading the division for 163 straight days.  There is a long, cold winter ahead.  Brandon Inge faces knee surgery, several players will be moving on to new clubs, and several new faces will take their place.

I’ll have a season recap coming soon.  In the meantime, watch the playoffs and hope that this club can play meaningful games next October as well.  That’s really all you can ask for.

As the July trade deadline neared, there was much rumbling about the Tigers lack of offensive prowess.  The general consensus was that Detroit had to make a move to bring in a big bat.  He should be left handed and be able to hit for some power.  Instead, Dave Dombowski pulled the trigger on a deal for LHP Jarrod Washburn.

Then in mid-August, the Tigers added that hitter, acquiring Aubrey Huff from Baltimore.  So far, neither Washburn nor Huff have been the key to maintaining the Tigers’ divisional lead.

The difference maker so far has been a healthy Carlos Guillen.

Since returning from injury on July 24, Guillen has provided very solid production.  Coupled with a resurgence from Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco, Guillen has taken his rightful place in the middle of the Tigers order and this lead to a much stronger team offense.

When the 2009 season began, Guillen was slated to play left field for Detroit.  The former All-Star short stop had moved to first base and then third base in 2008, trying to cope with a body that was failing him.  In order to shore up in infield defense, Guillen was shuttled out to left, allowing Brandon Inge to take over as the everyday third baseman.

Guillen wasn’t ready.  Guillen broke camp with a bad Achilles and was trying to play through a throbbing right shoulder.  The results were not good.  Before the injuries finally pushed Guillen to the disabled list, he had limped through 24 games, mostly limited to DH duties.  During that time, he had a paltry line of .200/.267/.244/.512 in 90 at bats.

As his time on the DL grew, the reports were not encouraging.  As late as early July, there were rumors of a possible surgery to be performed on Guillen’s shoulder, a move that would cost him the rest of the year.  But Guillen pressed forward with his rehab, and eventually saw some improvements.

Guillen began feeling good enough to begin a rehab assignment with AAA Toledo in mid-July.  With the Tigers facing the rival White Sox for a five game series, Detroit made the move to recall Guillen, though he was not yet completely healthy.  In fact, he’s still not.

Image via Wikipedia

Though listed as a switch hitter, Guillen’s shoulder has not yet healed enough to allow him to hit right handed.  He only recently began playing defense again, seeing time at first base and left field.  But what he has done, at half strength, has been a huge shot in the arm for a sagging Tigers offense.

In 33 games since his return, Guillen has belted eight home runs, and has driven in 23 runs.  Prior to his disabled list stint, he had zero homers and just six RBI.  While his season totals don’t look all that impressive, he has carried a .287/.354/.523/.877 line since his return.

Since being acquired prior to the 2004 season, Guillen has been a fixture in the heart of the Tigers order.  Guillen’s return to form, along with solid contributions from Ordonez and MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera, has kept the Tigers in first place through August.

The Tigers will play rivals Minnesota and Chicago 13 more times before the season’s end.  If Detroit plans to hold off both of those clubs, it will take a strong effort from the entire team.  But specifically, it will take a healthy dose of Carlos Guillen.

When you take a peek at the poor offensive statistics that the Tigers have posted as a team this year, it would easy to have the knee-jerk reaction to want to see Legendary Lloyd given his walking papers.  Maybe a new voice is needed to wake these guys up.  But when Kurt looked deeper at the numbers of a couple of players, what he found was that McClendon role in the steady decline of the Tigers’ offense was minimal at best.

McClendon took over as the hitting coach in 2007, after serving as bench coach the year prior.  2007 saw career years from Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco and the Tigers finished second in the AL in runs scored at 5.87 per game.

Even a quick glace at the three players listed above this season will show a significant drop in production this season.  Remember though, Ordonez and Polanco are both on the wrong side of their primes, as they were back in ‘07, so a decreased level of performance should certainly have been expected.

As for Granderson, what we may be seeing is the evolution of him as a hitter.  Two seasons ago, Granderson was still a gap hitter focused on line drives and using his speed to gain extra bases.  This season, Granderson has hit home runs (and fly balls) at a significantly higher rate, thus leading to a lower batting average and OBP.  Kurt also points out that his BABIP is down from years past, which will happen as fly ball rates increase, but also illustrates that bad luck is playing a role.

Granderson was certainly never a prototypical lead-off hitter, and he appears more suited now to hit in the middle of the order.  But again, that is something that had always been projected to happen as he matured.

If the Tigers have been guilty of anything as it pertains to offense this season, it was that they came into this season relying too much on older hitters to stay healthy and maintain production levels they had in the past.  In the post-Steroid Era, it is much more likely that older players will see drops in production earlier and more severely than they had over the past 12 to 15 years.  The days of outfielders staying healthy and continuing to mash into their late 30’s are very simply behind us.

As was the case with the overwhelming majority of players prior to the steroid explosion of the 90’s, hitters today will see sharp declines at an earlier age.  Ordonez, now 35, has been victimized by declining bat speed that really began last season, but has taken a sharp down-turn this year.  There is very little chance he will be able to regain that bat speed at any point as he gets older.

Similarly, Polanco and Carlos Guillen have a lot of games on their bodies, and while much of Polanco’s struggles can be attributed to bad luck, Guillen’s injuries are something that are likely to continue.  Again, when you enter the season relying on thirty-somethings to carry the load, you run the very real risk of having to then rely on AAA players to pick up slack that they frankly are not yet capable of doing.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As far as McClendon is concerned, he has done a phenomenal job getting Brandon Inge to finally take instruction, and the results have been there.  Inge has been one of the very few bright spots on this team, and without his production, the Tigers would very likely be looking up from third place.

Through his tutelage, McClendon has also succeeded in getting solid production from hitters like Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn, and Adam Everett, while still not a major threat with the bat, is having his best offensive season is recent memory.

The problem with this team’s offense is absolutely not the hitting coach, it is in fact two-fold.  The lack of quality players still in their prime is the biggest issue.  Granderson is evolving into the hitter he likely will be throughout the next decade, and Miguel Cabrera continues to assault opposing pitchers, but nearly everyone else is either on the down side of their careers or not yet to their prime.

Coupled with that, the Tigers rank near the bottom in the AL with a .327 OBP and also have grounded into more double plays than any other AL club.  So when they do get runners on base, frequently those runners are eliminated via the double play.

The Tigers have actually stranded fewer runners than any AL team.  So part of the issues lie simply in hitters being too aggressive and not waiting for a quality pitch to hit.  It is difficult to teach pitch recognition, and that has been an organization problem for decades.

As the All-Star break draws near, many teams around the league are looking for upgrades. Your Motor City Kitties are no exception. The Tigers need for a another bat has been well chronicled, and many names have been tossed around the blogosphere. Unfortunately, the Tigers failed to pounce on the one name that I would have liked them to target; Eric Hinske.

On Tuesday June 30, the Pirates made their annual trade with the Yankees, sending Hinske to New York along with cash for two minor leaguers. You may recall that over the past several seasons, the Pirates have made several deals with the Yankees, sending them Craig Wilson, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, and Xavier Nady. The Pirates always seem to get the short end of such trades.

The Yankees use these players to solidify their push to the playoffs, while the Pirates continue to flounder until the next season, when they repeat the process. It has been said that the definition of insanity is to repeat your actions and expect different results. I believe the Pirates’ executives to be insane.

Image by afagen via Flickr

So what’s left for Detroit? Guys like Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott are likely still available, as are Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson, but all will have a bigger price tag than Hinske.

Perhaps, the Tigers’ answer will come from within, as Carlos Guillen is progressing nicely from his shoulder injury that has cost him most of the season. If he can regain any type of the form at the plate he has displayed over the past several seasons, he would be a welcome addition to the Tigers’ inconsistent attack.

The simple facts are that if the Tigers plan to make it to October, the offense needs a boost. If players like Guillen and Magglio Ordonez can find the fountain of youth, they should have enough to get there. If not, and I would not put a ton of faith in that happening, the team must look outside the organization for help.

A versatile left handed hitter that’s capable of hitting the long ball would be ideal. With Hinske’s name scratched from the shopping list, I will throw my support behind Chad Tracy of the Diamondbacks.

Tracy has spent the last month on the disabled list, but when healthy, has shown good pop throughout his career, twice hitting at least 20 home runs in a season. He can play first base and third base. He played in the outfield regularly prior to 2006, so he could probably get by there again.

Tracy could be activated by this weekend and while it’s true that he has been injury prone over the past three seasons, it would be a risk to take him on, the Tigers wouldn’t need him to play everyday. He could be used in a platoon situation to help offset the losses of production the team was counting on from Ordonez and Guillen.

Given his injury history and the D-backs roster full of young talent, Arizona shouldn’t ask for a ton in return, as they don’t really have a place for him to play.  Tracy has a $7 million option for next season with a buyout of $1 million, so he should fit into the Tigers’ plans financially as well.