Photo taken from Google Images

I recently ran into this CNN feature from 1995 on Alex Rodriguez. If you think about it, they were making a pretty big deal about him – when was the last time a major news outlet did a feature on an up and coming teenage pro athlete? LeBron James is the only one I can think of. This all got me reflecting on the hype surrounding A-Rod through his career, beginning in his high school days in his hometown of Miami.

First year in pro ball after being selected number one overall, the 18-year-old rangy shortstop reaches Triple-A Calgary and hits .311/ .359/ .588. Gets his first cup of coffee.

Second year in pro ball, now 19, he hits .360/ .411/ .654 in Triple-A Tacoma — Tacoma, by the way, until its 2011 renovations, may have been the most cavernous park in the country, and the ball flies through cool sea air. Second cup of coffee.

Third year in pro ball, now 20 and in the Major Leagues, hits .358/ .414/ .631, plays Gold Glove worthy shortstop (if not for that Omar Vizquel guy), and is worth 9.8 WAR in 146 games.

Though his career is controversial — for reasons many of which he invited himself — his 629 home runs is 6th on the all-time list, and his 112 WAR is 18th on the all-time list.

And those numbers are still climbing. Still going strong, he’s fresh off his 35-year-old, injury-riddled season with a still-impressive 4.2 WAR in 99 games.

Image via Wikipedia

If there was a more hyped prospect in baseball history who fulfilled his potential as much as Alex did, I’d like to see it. Griffey? Broke down by age 31. Bonds? Better player, but not everyone saw it until after he was drafted. Clemens? Maddux? Not first-overalls. Clemente? The guy was Rule-5′d. Mickey Mantle? OK, maybe, but a big part of that hype was likely the media and to many in the 1950s Yankees = MLB. Alex played in small and medium markets until donning pinstripes and the media paid attention anyway.

Love him or hate him, MLB has been better off with A-Rod than without. For those of us who paid him any attention through his entire career, we’ve gotten a real treat.

And now for a fun fact that is neither here nor there:

- In the CNN feature, Lou Piniella praises Alex for his potential and compares him to Cal Ripken – the best shortstop in the Liveball Era. But less than 2 years before that in the early summer of 1993, on the upcoming draft, Sweet Lou said: “Now let me get this straight. Darren Dreifort is close to pitching in the big leagues right now, and we need bullpen help, right? Then why are we even talking about that guy in Florida?” Mariners Head of Scouting at the time, Roger Jongewaard, replied simply, “Because he’s special.”

Dreifort, the number 2 overall pick in the 1993 draft, would go on to accumulate 4.8 WAR in an injury-plagued career that is commonly panned by Dodger fans.

NPB SP Yu Darvish image taken from Google Images

For many years, American baseball fans with an eye towards the Japanese Major Leagues have been rolling out the red carpet for the Nippon-Ham Fighters‘ 6-foot-5 fireballer Yu Darvish. The NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) has a strange relationship with MLB regarding their players crossing the Pacific to play stateside.

NPB players can sign with an MLB team by way of free agency, after 9 years of being under club control, compared to MLB’s 6 years. Since NPB players are likely past their primes by the time they reach free agency, the most attractive way for NPB players to face the challenges of MLB competition is via the posting process – NPB teams sell an MLB team exclusive negotiating rights to a player in a silent auction, and if the player and MLB team reach agreement, the player is sold.

American media has made noise about Darvish being posted in offseasons before, but never as loud as it is now. This naturally leads fans to make comparisons, and for illogical reasons (read: racism) Japanese players are most often compared to other Japanese players. This happens among players of other races as well, but since there are far less Major Leaguers of Japanese descent, the sample sizes are tiny and comparisons are highly inaccurate. This is why the comparisons you read of Darvish to the last hyped Japanese pitcher to be posted, Daisuke Matsuzaka, are terrible. Their numbers in the NPB, as well as their skill sets, are vastly different. I will not entertain such a baseline, and neither should you.

I have an interesting comparison for Yu Darvish that most people may not have yet considered (And by interesting, I mean not-Matsuzaka. That adjective you’re looking for there is ass-hatted). Aside from the home run rate, their rate numbers are nearly identical.

Yu Darvish’s last 3 years, compared to Player A in same league:

SO/9: (D)9.7 | (A)9.4

BB/9: (D)1.8 | (A)1.2

HR/9: (D)0.3 | (A)0.6

~

Who might Player A be? It’s Texas Rangers RHP Colby Lewis during his two-year stint with the Hiroshima Carp from 2008 to 2009. Colby Lewis is, admittedly on my part, not a perfect comparison. Darvish has sustained impeccably low ERAs throughout his entire NPB career, which leads one to believe he, unlike others, shows some kind of talent outside of what DIPS numbers can detect. He is likely causing NPB batters to “mis-hit” the ball often or pitches better with men on base. Darvish also throws more innings per year than Lewis did.

Despite these imperfections in my comparison, Lewis is the best base to adjust your expectations of Darvish from. Lewis has given the Rangers 6.9 fWAR over 2 seasons. Considering he pitches in a bandbox and FIP doesn’t adjust for HR/FB rate, I’d comfortable calling Lewis a 4 WAR pitcher, which is to say he’s a solid #2 starter.

Darvish in the MLB isn’t likely significantly better than Colby Lewis. Unless he’s racking up groundballs that I’m unaware of, I think it’s likely his home run rate will stabilize at the level of most MLB flyball pitchers. Will Darvish be able to keep getting batters to mishit the ball in the MLB? My guess is no, considering the kind of non-knuckleball pitcher who does that is a very rare breed, especially among RHPs.

I think Darvish is a 4.5 WAR pitcher in the bigs, assuming he makes all the on-field and off-field adjustments (which is not a safe assumption, by the way). That’s pretty darn good, but not mesmerizing, nor worth the hype and high dollar price tag.

If teams are looking to add another #1/2 starter, CJ Wilson is available for what is likely a lower price and more proven track record.

Image borrowed from Zoner Sports via Google Images

With Tony La Russa deciding to call it a career earlier this week, MLB will try to remember what it’s like to exist without him managing one of its teams. It hasn’t had to since 1978. As some reminders just how long ago that was:

-        Cardinals 10-time All-Star Albert Pujols wasn’t even conceived yet.

-        Cardinals Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith, who retired in 1996, finished 2^nd in the Rookie of the Year balloting.

-        Cardinals Hall of Fame manager Whitey Herzog hadn’t yet managed the Cardinals.

-        The Jimmy Carter administration had a 52% approval rating.

-        Jamie Moyer first became eligible for social security.

As long and as full of winning La Russa’s career was, the growing acceptance of Sabermetrics among front office executives in the 21^st century, and later mainstream media, has led to a counter culture in baseball that sees La Russa and his old school ilk in a less favorable light. Aside from his small ball obsession, La Russa was too often accused of letting his ego take precedent over keeping the most talent on the team – and the Cardinals brass would allow it. Even former General Manager Walt Jocketty was fired by the Cardinals during his feud with La Russa, reportedly due to La Russa’s influence. This made room for John Mozeliak to be promoted to GM chair in 2007.

Mozeliak, who began his career in Major League Baseball as a number cruncher straight out of college with the Colorado Rockies, is no stranger to Sabermetrics. He has shown to be a shrewd GM for the Cardinals and has often enough balanced La Russa’s wills to keep his job. But with La Russa now gone, Mozeliak gets to do something most GMs get to do as their first executive action – choose a manager to his liking. One who likely wouldn’t, for example, refuse to play a rising star, power-hitting, center fielder, because, God-forbid, a 24-year-old millionaire is accused of having immaturity issues. Or perhaps one who likely wouldn’t push away his future Hall of Fame third baseman due to a feud that must be inconsequential compared to what’s best for the team.

2012 may be Mozeliak’s 5^th season as captain of the good ship Cardinal, but it will be the first that he gets to choose how much autonomy he wants to share with the Cardinals manager. Ideally, Mozeliak would have the last say for every player transaction on the matter of who wears the Cardinals uniform – just like nearly every GM in baseball. In theory, this will make Mozeliak better at his job.

Or will it? Legendary pitching coach Dave Duncan (who’s face arguably deserves to be on La Russa’s future Hall of Fame plaque) has a tight bond with La Russa, and may not return to the team for the 2012 campaign. Worse, free agent Albert Pujols will now have less incentive to re-sign with the Cardinals, as he has been an outspoken La Russa backer through most of his career as well. And though the Cardinals have won two championships with Mozeliak as either the GM or Assistant GM, nobody is in doubt that neither would have been possible without Pujols in a Cardinals uniform.

Mozeliak may be having his dream come true by not having to manage La Russa’s hurt feelings anymore, but he has some hard work to do this offseason that may be impossible without the help of one of the longest-tenured and most respected baseball men in MLB.

Should K-Rod finish 55 games – he has finished 34 so far this year – the Brewers will be on the hook for a whopping $17.5 million in 2012. Rodriguez has been among the elite relievers of the past decade and is still only 29 years old, but his shine has come off in recent seasons due to decline, injury and his notorious arrest after assaulting his father-in-law in 2010. K-Rod has merely been much closer to an average reliever rather than an elite since signing his heafty 3-year, $37 million contract with the Mets in 2008. $17.5 million would be financially crippling to a mid-market team such as the Brewers as they try to reload for 2012.

With the Brewers tied for first place at the halfway mark, this calculated dice-rolling continues a pattern we have seen from Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin since last offseason. After 2010, many experts speculated the Brewers would trade their star first baseman Prince Fielder – a free agent after 2011 – for club-controlled talent to create a window for contention a few years down the road. However, the Brewers front office identified current market trends that undervalued players one or two years away from free agency while the price of prospects had risen in recent years. Thus, the Brewers decided not to trade Fielder, mortgage the farm for star pitchers Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, and declared 2011 as the year the Brewers go all-in for the NL Central crown.

Axford has been an integral part of the Brewers success in 2011 and they will probably count on him in 2012 as well, but with the financial complications K-Rod brings with him to the team, Axford’s health and performance may be the most important asset to the Brewers success in the present and near future.

Image taken from Google Images c/o the Bleacher Report

Dustin Ackley will be making the most highly anticipated Seattle Mariner debut on June 17^th 2011 since the debut of one King Felix Hernandez in 2005.

Ackley got off to an abysmal start in April, but he then hit .355/.443/.605 in May and .346/.500/.538 in June. Yes, he’s due for regression away from those numbers, but the entirety of his Triple-A numbers are not built on a house of cards. In his short minor league career, Ackley owns an extremely impressive BB/K of 130/117, which leads many to believe he has a strong chance to make a flawless transition to the Major Leagues, and possibly make a Buster Posey-like impact for the Mariners putrid offense.

Now, I don’t believe in arbitrarily limiting your sample size just because you don’t like parts of it, but even as a Sabermetric fanatic, I’m also a big believer in deferring to scouts in most instances when it comes to minor league talent evaluation. There has never been any doubt among scouts that Ackley will hit in the Major Leagues. Even in both of Ackley’s miserable Aprils (.147/.289/.227 in 2010; .211/.333/.305 in 2011), scouts never wavered.

Ackley’s minor league track record is good but not particularly awe-inspiring on the whole. However, they get more impressive when you add in the fact that he began his pro career in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Texas League instead of getting broken in with a brief stint in the low minors like most top college draftees.

And while Tacoma is more of a hitters park now since its 2011 renovation, it’s still at sea level, which contrasts with the high elevations of the rest of the PCL. Numbers in Tacoma are depressed compared to numbers in, say, Salt Lake.

Both of Ackley’s Aprils drag down his overall minor league career and are not representative of what Ackley will do in the Majors. The aggregate of the rest of his minor league numbers need regression, but be confident that the peak of his Major League career will display better rate stats than his minor league career of .280/.387/.435.

Cliff Lee Photo by Icon SMI

From the words of Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels, the Rangers, not Yankees, are the winners of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. They will be sending star 1B prospect Justin Smoak, and minor leaguers RHP Blake Beavin, RHP Josh Lueke, and utility man Matt Lawson to the Mariners. The Rangers also receive RHP Mark Lowe and $2.5 million in cash.

In the Rangers press conference, it was announced Lee will start his first game as a Ranger tomorrow. Lee was scheduled to start today as a Mariner versus the Yankees.

After a morning of reports of a near-certain deal with the Yankees, the Rangers made a strong push to land the ace southpaw. At least for today, Yankees biggest trade chip C/DH prospect Jesus Montero will remain in their organization.

Lee is a major addition to the Rangers, as he goes to the top of the rotation, bumps everyone else down a slot, which gives them an ace for the rest of the season instead of a replacement-level #5 production. Lee’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection of a 3.11 FIP would give the Rangers an additional 3 WAR. Lowe will provide value to the Rangers in the bullpen in 2011 and beyond, as he is on the DL for the rest of 2010.

With the Rangers already 7.5 games ahead of the second place Angels, they had an 83.7 percent chance of making the playoffs without Lee, so this deal is clearly a move to improve their odds to advance in the playoffs. The Rangers in their history have never played in a League Championship Series or World Series.

For the Mariners, the 23-year-old Smoak becomes a long term answer at first base and is under club control for 6 years. A switch-hitter and solid defensive first baseman, he has drawn comparisons from prospect mavins to Mark Teixeira. Beavin, 21,  touches the mid-90s with his fastball and has displayed excellent control in Double-A Frisco with a 0.94 BB/9 and projects as a mid-rotation starter. Lueke, 25, is old compared to his peers in High-A and Double-A but owns a 1.73 FIP this season. It will be a surprise if Lawson, 24, ever becomes a Major Leaguer.

Mariners receive prospect package with Jesus Montero as the centerpiece

Cliff Lee Photo by Icon SMI

The most talked-about sweepstakes at the trade deadline this year is coming to a close. THUH-UH-UH-UH—YANKEES WIN!

Despite missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, LHP Cliff Lee places 4^th among pitchers in the WAR leaderboards at 4.0 according to Fangraphs. This includes an AL-leading 5 shutouts and an MLB-leading and mind-blowing K/BB of 14.83, which more than doubles second place Roy Halladay who owns an exceptional 6.61 mark. Cliff Lee is simply the best left-handed pitcher in baseball.

For the Yankees, who according to Cool Standings had an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs before the trade, this may just seal up a coveted spot to play October baseball and give them an absolutely fearsome top of the rotation for a 5- and 7-game series. CC Sabathia and Lee would certainly be Game 1 and 2 starters, while rising star Phil Hughes and playoff veteran Andy Pettite would both make excellent Game 3 and 4 starters. If early reports yield true, the Yankees will not trade away anyone on their 25-man roster.

Jesus Montero Photo by Icon SMI

In return, the Mariners will receive catcher and uber prospect Jesus Montero. Montero owns a .726 OPS at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre. This isn’t a noteworthy mark on its own, but as a 20-year-old catcher one step away from the Majors playing in a notorious pitcher-friendly league, this is above-average production. According to Baseball America, Montero is the #5 prospect in baseball, and joins second baseman Dustin Ackley (#7) and RHP Michael Pineda as Mariners in the top 11.

Montero alone would be a much bigger haul than what the Mariners sent to the Philadelphia Phillies before the 2010 season to acquire Lee. Other players are rumored to be heading to Seattle, including Double-A second baseman David Adams.

Clearly, the Mariners did extremely well for themselves in the Cliff Lee saga in Mariners history.

4:00 PM EST  **UPDATE**

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets the deal has fallen through. The Mariners are extremely cautious of the ankle health of infielder David Adams and another team has jumped into the sweepstakes.

Russell Branyan Photo by Icon SMI

About a week ago, on the heels of winning 6 of their last 7, a few days ago Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik was quoted “I’m not ready to throw in the towel just yet.” Now, he has absolutely no incentive to say the opposite (“Fire Sale!” shows your hand and gives away your leverage), so it sounds like typical posturing. The Mariners are 31-43 and are 14 games back of the AL West leading Texas Rangers, and according to CoolStandings.com, they have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.

But then a funny thing happened. At a time when every Mariner fan is on their toes for the inevitable Cliff Lee trade and the bounty it will bring to Seattle, Russell Branyan, a free-agent-to-be, is headed back to Seattle in a trade for minor leaguers OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz – and nobody really knows what’s going on.

Good news! I’m not going to pretend to! Instead, I will merely distract you with a little game. But it’s a fun game! Few people know, but Russell Branyan is merely a pawn in the Baseball Gods’ plan of creating the longest trade chain in the history of mankind*. At one time the Mariner subspecies was on the brink of extinction, but now its offspring have wildly reproduced and will likely live on forever. Unlike Ken Griffey Sr’s offspring. That guy’s career died years ago.

*This is not verifiable. Don’t try to verify it.

You see, former Mets farmhand Carrerra was part of the monster 3-team Jeremy Reed trade of 2008** in which Reed was sent to New York. This isn’t particularly interesting on its own. But how did Reed get to the Mariners? Well, he came from the White Sox as part of the Freddy Garcia trade of 2004… Who was part of the Randy Johnson trade of 1998…Who was part of the Mark Langston trade of 1989…Who was draft compensation for original Mariner Bill Stein leaving in free agency!

**Otherwise known as the monster 3-team J.J. Putz trade of 2008. Whoever heard of Franklin Gutierrez, anyway? Is he any good?

If you don’t know anything about Bill Stein, well, you shouldn’t. He sucked. Selected with the 5^th overall pick in the 1976 expansion draft from the Chicago White Sox, Bill Stein was the Mariners first ever third baseman. And frankly, that’s all I’m going to write about his career.

But hey, look at this fun flow chart! Flow charts get instant Diggs, right? Hooray!

Editor’s Note: click on the flow chart to enlarge!

And so far, the trade is paying off as shown in the videos and links to videos below!

Branyan’s two-run homer

Branyan’s two-run single

Brian Cashman Photo by Icon SMI

Buying championships? I think that undersells the fantastic job that GM Brian Cashman has done. Since From 1973 until 1998, the Yankees went through GMs like Kleenex by hiring 12 – GMs averaged 2 seasons with the club. 2010 is Cashman’s 12^th season, much of which he tolerated being George Steinbrenner’s puppet. Cashman’s not perfect, but when he makes a mistake he is sure to make one that the Yankees can easily absorb. And most respectably, he’ll acknowledge when an expensive experiment has failed and he’ll quickly move on (Kei Igawa, anyone? No? Off to Triple-A with you).

Over time, he turned the Yankees from filthy rich disarray (remember Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Sidney Ponson?) into the most well-oiled machine in baseball, money or no. Through all the accusations of buying championships, the Yankees have been player development machines. Stars like Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes have led other useful additions like Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain and Melky Cabrera (now with the Atlanta Braves). Not to mention other home grown talents from before the Cashman era: future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera as well as the ageless Andy Pettitte are humongous parts of the Yankees’ success from season to season.

Home grown players also have another use: trade bait. Jeff Marquez, Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke into Swisher, Granderson, and Vazquez

Over the last two offseasons, trade chips Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy, Mike Dunn, Austin Jackson and Jeff Marquez (along with Wilson Betemit, who was also acquired with homegrown talent) have been turned in for Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez. All three had established themselves as young well above average players before donning the pinstripes and were projected to produce.

Put simply, under Cashman the Yankees have earned their money and have earned their championships. One only has to look at their crosstown rival Mets, who have access to the same market, to see that making and spending money doesn’t equate to winning. Being in the right place is a big part of it, sure. According to Bizofbaseball.com, in 2009 the Yankees and Mets were the top two revenue makers in MLB and together they brought in $709 million, which was over 11 percent of MLB’s entire revenue. But among that $709 million, the Yankees made almost twice as much as the Mets: $441 million whereas the Mets made $268.

So why haven’t the Mets made more? Because the Mets suck. I won’t say that the Mets should have made more than the Yankees, who have the benefit of an extremely rich 100 years of history, but the Mets shouldn’t let the Yankees bring in almost twice as much as they have. The Yankees may have a $200 million payroll, but most of that money is spent wisely. The Mets’ big acquisitions of Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Luis Castillo were all poor decisions before they even made their debut. That the results have mostly panned out poorly is merely justice served cold.

Compare that to the Yankees. While they’re responsible for 4 of the biggest contracts in baseball, they also pay them to players who are likely to fulfill or exceed their expectations. In 2009, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia were paid a combined $92 million. Fangraphs values their 2009 contributions at a combined $106.6 million. A visit to Fangraphs will tell you a similar story in 2008. And 2007.

Fans love to say the issue is the Yankees’ $200 million payroll, but the truth is that’s only half of the problem – the other half is that the Yankees spend $200 million well. You know who else spends money well? Practically every team who has ever won a World Series.

The Yankees make smart trades. They make smart International signings. They make smart draft choices. They develop their own young players into Major Leaguers. They fill in any holes in the roster with big free agent signings exactly as the Stars-and-Scrubs handbook says, but unlike other organizations who can afford 8- and 9-digit contracts, they’re smart about it. They scout with the best of them and have a well respected statistical analysis department headed by one of the game’s best blenders of the two: Brian Cashman. If you ask me, that’s more respectable than it is despicable.

Now if only they made less money.

At the plate they have produced similarly according to linear weights even though they succeed with different skill sets. However, due to those skill set differences, Figgins is certainly the better fit for the Mariners. Safeco Field is death to right handed power, thus, batters who hit the ball to right field well will take advantage of Safeco’s pitcher-friendly environment. Beltre has only one offensive tool: power to left field. As such, his home-road splits since signing with the Mariners in 2005 are eye-popping (.252/.305/.408 home, .278/.326/.472 away). Alternatively, Figgins is a spray-hitting on-base threat, and is not likely to see his park-neutralized numbers significantly depress.

On the defensive end, Beltre is the superior third baseman. His 13.1 UZR/150 over the last 4 years (552 games) is tops among third basemen over the last 4 years. Figgins hasn’t been an everyday third baseman for nearly as long but has ratcheted up a still very impressive 8.8 UZR/150 in a small sample size (358 games over 3 years). The defensive difference between the two is 0.5 to 1 WAR if both stay healthy. But where Figgins makes this up is in his versatility. Since he can play second base or the outfield as well,

he would give the Mariners a backup plan in left field if Michael Saunders needs more seasoning, and incumbent second baseman Jose Lopez would be even more

expendable. There’s even a remote possibility that Beltre would accept arbitration and the two could easily play in the same lineup together. If the M’s chose Beltre, they would often times be forced to play an inferior player at another position.

Another point to consider is that this isn’t an either/or situation, nor are Figgins and Beltre the only options. With the Phillies rumored to be the most appealing destination for a free agent third baseman at the beginning of the offseason and Placido Polanco quickly inking, the stock for Figgins’ services sank with his highest bidder out of the sweepstakes. Seattle was known to be pursuing Polanco, and it is no surprise they have zeroed in on other free agent infield options. Free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson, while inferior to Figgins, was once  speculated to be of more interest to Seattle. Hudson will require less money per year, less years of commitment, and because the Dodgers didn’t offer him arbitration, wouldn’t cost the Mariners the 18^th pick in the 2010 Rule-4 draft. The WAR difference between Hudson and Figgins next year is likely around 1.5, and the dollars committed will certainly be in excess of $20 million, possibly $30 million. If the rumors are true, the Mariners apparently see the difference between Figgins and Hudson trumping their monetary differences. Nobody is anticipating Beltre to accept arbitration or choose Seattle as his free agent suitor, but neither is it it out of the question.