In one of the most anticipated roster moves of the 2011 season, the Kansas City Royals promoted third base prospect Mike Moustakas from Triple-A on Friday. He has exactly one hit (including his first major league HR on Saturday) and one run in each of his first three games.

Moustakas ranked as the No. 9 prospect according to Baseball America prior to the 2011 season, one spot behind teammate Eric Hosmer, and several spots ahead of productive rookies Michael Pineda (16), Freddie Freeman (17), Zach Britton (28), Danny Espinosa (66) and Craig Kimbrel (86).

After the Royals selected him No. 2 overall in the 2007 draft, Moustakas led the low Class A Midwest League with 22 HRs in his first full season, while posting a .272/.337/.468 slash. He followed that up with a disappointing 2009 season at high Class A where he hit .250/.297/.421 with 50 extra-base hits (16 HRs) and 86 RBI in 530 plate appearances.

Moustakas improved his plate approach in 2010, according to Baseball America:

“He started laying off pitches that he couldn’t do much damage to, leading to more favorable counts and more opportunities to unleash his plus-plus power.”

Let me repeat that: plus-plus power.

He bounced back in a big way in 2010, posting a .322/.369/.630 slash between Double-A and Triple-A with an eye-popping 77 extra-base hits, 124 RBI, and tied for the minor league lead in home runs with 36.

Moustakas has come back down to earth a bit this season, posting a still respectable 10 HRs, 44 RBI and a .287/.347/.498 slash in 55 games with Omaha.

The 22-year-old left-handed batter has excellent bat speed and power to all fields. He doesn’t walk much, but he has an extraordinary ability to make contact. His limited range and poor footwork will likely land him in the outfield someday, but for now, his fantasy value is significant in all leagues thanks to his power bat at third base.

Considering the injuries to David Wright, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, and the general suckiness of most other third baseman, “Moose” is a must-add in all leagues. He’s capable of posting double digit dingers for the rest of the season with a solid average, and is expected to be a middle-of-the-order stalwart in the Royals lineup for years to come.

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Buy or Sell?: Ogando / Jurrjens / Rios / Jimenez / H. Ramirez / Bruce / A. Ramirez  

Prospect Report: Anthony Rizzo / Jemile Weeks / Dee Gordon / Paul Goldschmidt

Closer’s Corner, Week 10: Soria, Bailey, Guerra, Rauch & More

Top Rookies: Jerry Sands / Michael Pineda / Zach Britton / Brandon Belt / Mike Minor

2011 Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP / Top 100 / All-Breakout Team 

Keeper Conundrum: Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill? / Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

After a year in which Alex Rios hit 21 HRs, swiped 34 bases and hit .284 in the middle of a potent White Sox lineup, the 30-year-old center fielder has slumped through the first two months of 2011, posting a pathetic .201/.253/.306 slash with four HRs and four steals in 225 plate appearances.

A look at Rios’ advanced stats, however, suggest that now is a great time to buy-low on the 18-HR, 30-steal, .275 three-year average player.

Rios has never walked or whiffed much, as made evident by his career walk and strikeout rates of 6.5 and 17.8 percent, respectively. His walk rate this season (6.2 percent) is identical to his 2010 total, and his strikeout rate (11.0 percent) is the lowest of his career.

Rios’ contact rate of 86.8 percent is also a career best, and is well-above his career average (83.1 percent) and the major league average (81.0 percent).

So, if he’s taking walks at the same rate as last year, striking out much less yet making much better contact, how can his numbers be so Alcides Escobar-like?

Rios’ BABIP is just .208, third-lowest among qualified batters. Simply put, he’s experienced a great deal of poor luck.

And this isn’t one of those situations where his BABIP stands alone in support of bad luck. Rios’ line-drive rate is 18.7 percent (16.9 percent in ‘10, 19.3 percent career), suggesting that he’s hitting the ball hard, it’s just not finding the outfield grass.

This isn’t likely to last long, however. Once Rios’ hard-hit balls start dropping in for base hits, his batting average will skyrocket.

When that happens, you’ll want him on your team, especially at his current trade value.

Another stat that jumps off the page is 60.9, which is the percent of first-pitch strikes he seen this season, compared to 52.7 percent in 2010. After hitting primarily third in the White Sox lineup last season, Rios has been relegated to the sixth and seventh spots in the lineup.

Obviously, the bottom of the order isn’t protected as well as the top and middle, but it does tend to yield better pitches to hit and Rios is experiencing that. Given his aggressive nature at the plate, his turn-around should be multiplied by the fact that pitchers are giving him pitches to hit early in the count.

If there’s a case to be made against a Rios turn-around, it would be supported by his career first and second half splits. In 2,301 at-bats before the All-Star Break, Rios has posted a .282/.333./451 slash with a HR every 32.8 at-bats. In 1,692 at-bats after the Mid Summer Classic, his line drops to a measly .271/.318/.422 with a HR every 43.3 at-bats.

Not a particularly promising sign for someone who tends to struggle in the second half, but Rios’ advanced stats this season are more relevant to the topic and suggest a change in luck is on the horizon.

If you own Rios, stick with him. Put him in the lineup against lefties (.255 vs. southpaws, .184 vs. righties), and monitor all other matchups until he can put together a consistent hitting streak.

If you don’t own him and can afford the bench spot until he gets hot, send a feeler trade offer out to his undoubtedly frustrated owner; he’s likely to come very cheap.

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What’s Wrong With?: Hanley Ramirez

Buy or Sell?: Ubaldo Jimenez / Jay Bruce / Aramis Ramirez / Chris Coghlan 

Prospect Report: Paul Goldschmidt / Closer’s Corner, Week 9: Joakim Soria

2011 Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP / Top 100 / All-Breakout Team 

Top Rookies: Jerry Sands / Michael Pineda / Zach Britton / Brandon Belt / Mike Minor

Keeper Conundrum: Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill? / Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

The consensus No. 2 pick before the season started, Hanley Ramirez has done little to justify his draft position. Through 181 at-bats this season, Ramirez is flirting with the Mendoza Line (.210) and sports a Jason Bartlett-like OPS (.618).

To make matters worse, Ramirez was removed from Sunday’s game after the first inning with lower back stiffness. He recently missed a few games due to a foot injury, but his woes go far beyond this.

Ramirez’s BABIP is .238—more than 100 points lower than his career .340 clip. A closer look, however, suggests poor luck isn’t the only culprit of his lackluster production.

Ramirez’s ground-ball rate is 55.5 percent, ninth-highest in the majors and completely out of whack when compared to his career mark of 43.3 percent. Likewise, his fly-ball rate has suffered (30.1 percent vs. 37.4 percent career). This explains the power outage: You can’t hit home runs without hitting fly balls, and only nine percent of his fly balls are leaving the yard (career 13.2 percent).

While the season line (four HRs, 17 RBI, .210 BA) could easily be mistaken for that of Yuniesky Betancourt, Ramirez’s May totals offer hope.

• April: Nine runs, 0 HRs, nine RBI, three steals, .200 BA
• May: 21 runs, four HRs, eight RBI, eight steals, .219 BA

If we take his April/May splits a step further, there’s even more reason to be encouraged:

• April: 12.9 LD%, 60.0 GB%, 27.1 FB%, 0 HR/FB%, .059 ISO
• May: 15.8 LD%, 51.3 GB%, 32.9 FB%, 16.0 HR/FB%, .137 ISO

Admittedly, his May totals are not spectacular, but they are a step in the right direction. If it’s any consolation, Ramirez’s bat has historically heated up in the summer months, and that includes hitting more home runs and less ground balls:

Career GB Rate and AB/HR by Month:

• March/April: 51.9 GB%, 29.7 AB/HR
• May: 46.2 GB%, 30.9 AB/HR
• June: 44.8 GB%, 22.1 AB/HR
• July: 44.2 GB%, 22.8 AB/HR
• August: 39.9 GB%, 25.4 AB/HR
• September/October: 37.9 GB%, 19.6 AB/HR

While Ramirez has never endured a two month slump quite like the one he’s stuck in right now, there are a few reasons to believe he can salvage his 2011 campaign. On pace for 89 runs, 12 HRs, 51 RBI and 33 steals, one good month, a level stroke and a normalized BABIP could put the 27-year-old back on track for a 20-HR, 30-steal, .275 season.

Assuming his back injury isn’t an issue moving forward, Ramirez’s value won’t get much lower anytime soon. Seek out his frustrated owner and swing a deal at a discounted price. If you own the Marlins’ shortstop, hold your ground. No manager is likely to pay for his true worth based on his production through the first two months.

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2011 Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP / Top 100 / All-Breakout Team

Buy or Sell?: Aramis Ramirez / Chris Coghlan / Starlin Castro / Chris Narveson

Insiders’ Inbox: Memorial Day Spot Starters

Top Rookies: Jerry Sands / Michael Pineda / Zach Britton / Brandon Belt / Mike Minor

Keeper Conundrum: Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill? / Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Through six starts, the usually reliable Dempster now sports an unsightly 9.58 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. Given his steady production over the last three seasons (3.49 ERA, 8.20 K/9, 3.28 BB/9), one can’t help but wonder: What’s wrong with Ryan Dempster?

Scouts noted Dempster’s dip in velocity Thursday night, clocking him in the 85-90 mph range. For the season, Dempster’s average fastball velocity is 90.3 mph, not far off of his 2010 mark of 91.0 mph.

Cubs’ manager Mike Quade recently had this to say about Dempster’s ineffectiveness:

He’s just not executing his pitches. I think it’s that simple…That slider that’s so good for him (hasn’t been) on a regular basis.”

That slider has been Dempster’s bread-and-butter pitch ever since he made the switch from reliever to starter after the 2007 season. In fact, over the last three years, Dempster’s slider has been a combined 52.0 runs above average, ranking as the major’s third-best during that time.

This season, Dempster’s slider has been 4.9 runs below average.

This has led to a severe case of gopheritis, as the 33-year-old (he’ll turn 34 on Tuesday) has allowed nine bombs thus far in 31 innings, equating to a 2.61 HR/9, which is more than two-and-a-half times his career mark of 1.00.

Despite his early-season struggles, there are reasons for optimism.

Throughout his nightmarish April, Dempster has maintained a high strikeout rate (8.42). His batted ball rates are comparable to his 2010 totals, and his BABIP (.344) and LOB rate (53.9) are likely to regress to the mean.

Dempster’s alarming home run rate should stabilize, as his 4.26 xFIP suggests.

His contact rate (79.8 percent), while still below the major league average of 80.6, is as high as its ever been (career 75.1 percent). Yet he’s still throwing strikes (50.9 percent of his pitches have been in the zone, MLB average is 47.3), perhaps they’re just catching too much of the plate.

Bottom line: Dempster shouldn’t be trusted at this point, but he’s still worth holding onto. Monitor his next two starts (home against St. Louis and San Francisco) and go from there. Assuming he can lower his near-double-digit ERA (or at the very least, turn in what would be his first quality start of the season), Dempster may finally be worth starting very soon.

But whatever you do, don’t drop him. His sub-4.00 ERA and suburb strikeout potential from here on out make him a valuable fantasy commodity. In fact, if you have the audacity to believe in him, Dempster is a good buy-low candidate.

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2011 Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP / Top 100 / All-Breakout Team

Buy or Sell?: Chris Coghlan / Starlin Castro  / Bruce Chen / Chris Narveson

Top Rookies: Jerry Sands / Michael Pineda / Zach Britton / Brandon Belt / Mike Minor

Closer’s Corner: Who Will Replace Broxton?

Keeper Conundrum: Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill? / Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill have been big contributors to the team’s stellar ERA thus far. From a fantasy standpoint, however, one can’t help but wonder: Who is better—Anderson or Cahill?

Anderson turned 23 on Feb. 1 this year, Cahill did the same a month later. Both were drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft—Anderson by the Diamondbacks, Cahill by the Athletics. (Anderson was later traded to Oakland in the outrageous Dan Haren deal.)

The duo ranked No. 1 (Anderson) and 2 (Cahill) among Oakland prospects by Baseball America prior to the 2009 season.

Scouting report on Anderson—a left-hander—via Baseball America:

Anderson has premium command, averaging 1.9 walks per nine innings in his pro career and frequently locating his fastball on the corners of the plate…His two-seam fastball sits at 88-92 mph and generates a lot of groundouts. He also can touch 94 mph with his four-seamer. Anderson has above-average secondary pitches across the board, including a mid-to-high-70s curveball with two-plane break. His low-to-mid-80s slider gives him a second quality breaking ball, and his changeup is often a plus pitch.

In 244 2/3 minor league innings, Anderson posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.

Scouting report on Cahill—a right-hander—via Baseball America:

Cahill works off an 88-92 mph two-seam fastball with outstanding heavy sink and running life, enabling him to rack up both grounders and swinging strikes. He also can touch 94 mph with his four-seamer. He backs up his fastballs with a nasty 79-81 mph knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement. He also has another tough breaking ball in a low-80s slider with cutter-like action at times.

In 247 1/3 minor league innings, Cahill posted a 2.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.

The only knock on Anderson at the time was his lack of athleticism. Cahill drew red flags for a slight mechanical flaw and less-than-spectacular command. Both were regarded as having top-of-the-rotation potential.

Fast-forward two years. Baseball America—and the Athletics—look brilliant.

Through 34 2/3 innings this season, Anderson boasts a stellar 1.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP to go along with a 7.01 K/9 and a minuscule 1.04 BB/9. Cahill has been nearly as good, with a 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with an uncharacteristic 8.33 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9 in 31 1/3 innings.

Both were spectacular last season (Anderson’s ERA was 2.80, Cahill’s 2.97), but the advanced stats suggest Cahill’s 2010 campaign was far from legitimate.

Consider Cahill’s 2010 advanced stats:

• BABIP: .236 (MLB average: .293)
• LOB rate: 76.5 percent (MLB average: 72.2 percent)
• FIP: 4.19
• xFIP: 3.99

For these reasons, I had Cahill flagged as a bust this season. He’s proven me wrong thus far, however.

His career BABIP of .252 in 400 2/3 innings is mind-boggling, forcing me to wonder if he’s another advanced stats defier such as Matt Cain. His ground ball rate (career 52 percent) certainly makes a low BABIP possible, but I still suspect a hint of luck. His current strikeout rate (9.59) is completely out of whack as well.

Anderson, on the other hand, is much more legitimate. His 2010 ERA (2.80) was backed by a 3.21 FIP, and his BABIP (.294) supports this even further. Anderson certainly isn’t as good as his current 1.63 ERA suggests, but given the information I’ve present—past and present—he’s the better fantasy starter.

Comparing their career major league totals support this observation:

• Anderson: 315 1/3 IP, 7.02 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.40 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.49 xFIP
• Cahill: 400 2/3 IP, 5.28 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 3.68 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 4.29 xFIP

For the season, I’d expect Anderson to post a sub-3.50 ERA with the help of the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. An average strikeout rate and elite walk rate should ensue.

As for Cahill, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his season-ending ERA balloon into the 4.00 range, with below-average strikeout and walk rates. Of course I was wrong about Matt Cain, too, so if Cahill becomes an advanced stat-defier, he’ll be an extremely unusual pitcher.

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2011 Position Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP / Top 100

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders: 

• Projecting Jerry Sands
• How Good is Michael Pineda?
• Is Bruce Chen Worth a Waiver Wire Flier?
• Week 3 Closer’s Corner: Thornton, Franklin Nathan & More
• Cheap Steals to Replace Rajai Davis
• Is Chris Narveson Worth a Waiver Wire Flier?
• How Good is Starlin Castro?
• 2011 All-Breakout Team
• The Top 10 Rookies in 2011
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011

Photo taken from Google Images c/o Zimbio

This comes after Weaver’s absolute gem last Sunday, when he limited the Blue Jays’ lineup to just one run on four hits in 7 2/3 innings. Weaver walked four and fanned a career-high 15.

The first pitcher to four wins this season, Weaver now boasts a 1.30 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, and leads the majors in strikeouts (31), while issuing just nine walks in 27 2/3 innings.

The 28-year-old is making a strong case to be considered as a top-10 starting pitcher, and here’s why:

After establishing himself as a first-half pitcher in each of his first four major league seasons, Jered Weaver dominated all of 2010, posting career-best totals in innings (224 1/3), K/9 (9.35) and BB/9 (2.17).

In fact, the advanced stats suggest Weaver was a completely different pitcher in 2010. Consider the following:

Strikeout Rate

• 2008: 7.74
• 2009: 7.42
• 2010: 9.35

Walk Rate

• 2008: 2.75
• 2009: 2.82
• 2010: 2.17

ERA

• 2008: 4.33
• 2009: 3.75
• 2010: 3.01

WHIP

• 2008: 1.28
• 2009: 1.24
• 2010: 1.07

Batting Average Against

• 2008: .253
• 2009: .241
• 2010: .220

So what was the difference between last year compared to ‘08 and ‘09? Was it Luck? 

Nope.

• 2010 BABIP: .276 (career .283)
• 2010 LOB rate: 75.7 percent (career .75.5 percent)
• 2010 HR/FB rate: 7.8 percent (career 7.9 percent)

Heck, even Weaver’s FIP (3.06) and xFIP (3.51) suggest his 2010 campaign was legit.

There real difference appears to be in the evolution of his fastball and curveball, checking in at 13.0 and 9.7 runs above average, respectively. When combined with his above-average slider (3.1 runs above average) and changeup (8.4 runs above average), Weaver’s pitching repertoire is one of the most dynamic  in the majors.

This, in turn, led to elite totals in the ‘that’s nasty’ pitching categories:

• Contact rate: 75.4 percent (6th)
• Zone contact rate: 79.2 percent (1st)
• Swinging strike rate: 11.2 percent (4th)
• O-swing rate: 33.5 percent (7th)

Expect the Angels’ ace to continue his dominance on his way to solidifying his status as a top-10 pitcher.

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2011 Position Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders: 

• Buy or Sell Edwin Jackson’s Hot Start?
• How Good is Cubs’ Starlin Castro?
• Week 1 Closer’s Corner: Axford, Lyon, Burnett & More
• 2011 All-Breakout Team
• The Top 10 Rookies in 2011
• 2011 Big Board: The Top 100 Players
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011

Milwaukee Brewers’ pitcher Chris Narveson tossed seven shutout innings against the Cubs Saturday night, allowing just six hits and one walk while striking out nine.

Through two starts (13 innings) thus far, Narveson has yet to allow a run, and boasts a 1.00 WHIP and 14/4 K/BB ratio. The 29-year-old journeyman is currently owned in just 16 percent of Yahoo! leagues, which begs the question: Is he worth a waiver wire flier?

Narveson has endured a long, winding road which has led him to where he is now. Originally drafted as a second-rounder by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2000, he underwent reconstructive elbow surgery in 2002. Two years later, he was one of the players to be named later in the Larry Walker trade, landing him in the Rockies’ system. In 2005, Narveson was sent to Boston in exchange for Byung-Hyun Kim before being claimed on waivers later that season by St Louis, the team that drafted him.

The well-traveled Narveson signed with Milwaukee as a free-agent after 2007. He pitched in 52 games at Triple-A as a starter and reliever in 2008 and 2009. In 10 minor league seasons, Narveson logged the following totals:

• 1010 1/3 innings (205 games, 177 starts), 3.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Narveson cracked the Brewers’ Opening Day roster in 2010, posting a 4.99 ERA in 167 2/3 innings (37 games, 28 starts). His strikeout rate (7.35) and walk rate (3.17) were respectable, while his FIP (4.22) and xFIP (4.15) suggest he was a bit better than his near-five ERA indicated.

Now installed as the Brewers’ No. 5 starter, Narveson mixes a less-than-overpowering four-pitch arsenal. His fastball sits in the high-80s, complimenting his 80 mph changeup. He also throws a slider and slow-rolling curve, which was his most effective pitch last season (7.5 runs above average).

If he can throw his four-pitch mix for strikes (44.5 percent strikes in 2010, MLB average 46.5), and keep his walk rate in the low threes, Narveson could offer decent value in mixed leagues. Given 28-30 starts on a Milwaukee team that is likely to contend for a division title, he could chip in 12 wins with an ERA in the 4.00-4.25 range.

His next two starts are likely to come at Pittsburgh and at Philadelphia. Monitor his performance before plugging him into your fantasy team’s starting rotation.

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2011 Position Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Angels’ Tyler Chatwood to Make MLB Debut on Monday
• Why Jered Weaver is a Top 10 Pitcher
• Buy or Sell Edwin Jackson’s Hot Start?
• How Good is Cubs’ Starlin Castro?
• Week 1 Closer’s Corner: Axford, Lyon, Burnett & More
• 2011 All-Breakout Team
• The Top 10 Rookies in 2011
• 2011 Big Board: The Top 100 Players
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011

Castro’s 2011 spring totals turned some heads last month, as he displayed surprising power: 66 at-bats, 14 runs, nine XBH (four HRs), 15 RBI, 2 steals, .348/.386/.621. Fresh off an impressive rookie season which saw him hit .300 in 463 at-bats, the question must be asked: How good is Starlin Castro?

The Cubs signed the Dominican Republic native at the tender age of 16 in 2006. After holding his own (.305 average) in two seasons of rookie ball, he skipped low Class A and jumped straight to high Class A in 2009. One year later, he became the first major league player born in the 1990’s. The Cubs always believed he had all-star potential, but they never thought he’d be this good so quickly.

In four seasons in the minors, Castro amassed nine HRs, 51 steals and a .310 batting average in 995 at-bats.

In his first taste of the big leagues in 2010, the 20-year-old more than held his own, batting .300/.347/.408 with 54 runs, three HRs, 41 RBI and 10 steals in 463 at-bats. Further, he hit more doubles (31) than Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez, and came up just one two-bagger short of Troy Tulowitzki’s season mark of 32. While this is certainly more than anyone could have ever asked of the now 21-year-old, expectations should be kept in check—for now.

Castro’s contact rate (85.9 percent) and ground ball rate (51.3 percent) explain his elevated BABIP (.346) last season, thus justifying his .300 batting clip. A high average will likely carry over into 2011, but his single-digit power will limit the Cubs’ No. 2 hitter in his run-scoring and run-producing opportunities. For this season, he’s my 12th ranked shortstop. His future prospects, however, are much more promising.

Since his pro debut in rookie ball in 2007, Castro has increased his number of extra base hits each season:

• 2007 (Dominican Summer League): 10 XBHs in 253 PAs
• 2008 (Arizona Fall League): 19 XBHs in 215 PAs
• 2009 (High A and Double-A): 32 XBHs in 509 PAs
• 2010 (Double-A and MLB): 53 XBHs in 627 PAs

Though his power production remains limited, there is reason to believe Castro will develop double-digit power as his body matures. He’s probably at least a few years away from doing that, however. Derek Jeter—a player Castro has been compared to—didn’t hit more than 10 HRs in the majors until his age 24 season.

Castro’s plus-speed has the potential to help fantasy teams now, but his base running skills still need work:

• 2007 (Dominican Summer League): 13-for-15 (87 percent)
• 2008 (Arizona Fall League): 6-for-11 (55 percent)
• 2009 (High A and Double-A): 28-for-39 (72 percent)
• 2010 (Double-A and MLB): 14-for-27 (52 percent)

Castro did swipe 10 bags with the Cubs last season, but was also caught eight times. Given his continued development, he could push for 20 steals this season.

Assuming Castro’s lineup protection—which includes a healthy Aramis Ramirez and the newly-acquired Carlos Pena—holds up, he could be in line for 80 runs in 2011.

While Castro’s potential is exciting (as a Cubs fan, I’m stoked), it’s important to remember he’s still five to six years from reaching his prime. Perhaps 15-20 HR power will develop, but it probably wont happen anytime soon. In the meantime, Castro should serve as a valuable option at shortstop with the ability to post 80 runs, single-digit HRs, 55 RBI, 20 steals and a .290-.300 batting average in his sophomore season.

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• 2011 Big Board: The Top 100 Players

2011 Position Rankings:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Starting Pitcher

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders: 

• Rays’ Evan Longoria to Miss At Least Three Weeks: Fantasy Impact
• Matt Holliday Out Indefinitely: Fantasy Impact
• Panic Over John Axford’s Opening Day Blown Save?
• Opening Day Waiver Wire Fliers
• 2011 All-Breakout Team

2011 Prospect Report:

• Braves’ Mike Minor Recalled to Start Wednesday
• Orioles’ Zach Britton to Make MLB Debut
• Prospect Report: Giants’ Brandon Belt Wins Starting Job
• The Top 10 Rookies in 2011
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders: 

• 2011 Closer’s Corner: 16 MLB Teams Have a New Source for Saves
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
• The Verducci Effect: Why 11 Pitchers 25-and-Younger May Regress
• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?

Andy Behrens recently dug up some mind-boggling numbers that explain this theory. To paraphrase, only two catchers in the past decade (Javy Lopez in 2003, Joe Mauer in 2009) have finished inside the top-50 overall according to Baseball Monster rankings. In five seasons since 2001, one or zero backstops have finished in the top-100 overall.

So why do we continue to draft catchers so high?

Two reasons: position scarcity and ignorance.

Some knucklehead in your draft will undoubtedly spend his second-round pick on Mauer, sparking others to draft Martinez, McCann, Posey and Santana ahead of their value. The truth is, waiting until the mid rounds to snag the likes of Geovany Soto (ADP 98.89), Mike Napoli (117.79), or even Jorge Posada (153.34) could pay huge dividends.

Consider me a believer in the six through 11 group this year. I must admit, however, owning Joe Mauer gives your team a gigantic advantage over the competition, even if he only hits 10-15 HRs.

The 16-20 group (not included) consists of limited power and mediocre batting average types such as Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz. In a 12 or 14-team league, these guys will likely be waiver wire-ready all season long. If you miss out on the first, second and third tiers, I suggest snatching a low-risk, high-upside player such as Russell Martin and Chris Iannetta.

Click on a player’s name for more in-depth analysis and projections.

1. Joe Mauer (C – Min): Doesn’t need 25 HRs to be the top catcher; his three-year batting average (.340) is 42 points higher than any player at his position.

2. Victor Martinez (C – Det): Only catcher to post 100-RBI season since 2004, and he’s done it three times. Leads backstops in HRs over the last seven seasons (129), and now bats in the same lineup as Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez.

3. Brian McCann (C – Atl): One of two catchers to have hit 20 HRs in each of the last three seasons. Entering his age-27 season in a stacked Braves lineup could lead to first career 100 RBI season.

4. Carlos Santana (C—Cle): Plus-power from both sides (23.8 AB/HR in six minor league season) with the ability to hit for average (.290 in minors) and draw plenty of walks (19.3 percent with Cleveland in 2010) give him an upside higher than that of Buster Posey.

5. Buster Posey (C—SF): Scouts have always noted that power isn’t his best tool. Poor home splits in 2010(.258/.304/.419) are a reflection of AT&T Park, but his 31.8% FB rate and 10.7% HR/FB rate at home are more realistic than the .351/.406/.587, 34.4% FB, 19.7% HR/FB he posted on the road. He will hit for average, not 20-plus power.

6. Geovany Soto (C—ChC): Bounced back from disappointing 2009 despite two DL stints late last season. Exceptional walk rate (16.0 percent) in 2010, in addition to ISO power (.217) and batting average (.280) nearly identical to ‘08 breakout campaign solidifies his legitimacy as a top-10 catcher.

7. Mike Napoli (C/1B/DH—Tex): Declining walk/contact rates, high strikeout totals and a slight drop in BABIP yielded a career-low .238 average last season. Trade to Texas can only help, however, allowing him at-bats at three positions. Batting averages in the .270s in both ‘08 and ‘09 yield hope, while he should flirt with 30 HRs.

8. Matt Wieters (C—Bal): Decrease in average (.288 to .249) from ‘09 to ‘10 will scare some away, but significant improvement in his walk, strikeout and contact rates signal progress. His above-average, switch-hitting bat and above-average power didn’t suddenly disappear. In his age-25 season, a line of 15 HRs, 75 RBI, .280 average is very realistic.

9. Jorge Posada (C/DH—NYY): Unusually low .287 BABIP in 2010 (career .318), resulted in his lowest batting average (.248) since 1999. A return to .260-.270 range is likely, in addition to nearly 20 HRs and 70 RBI in the seven hole. The 39-year-old DH has hit no less than 18 HRs in 10 of the last 11 seasons.

10. Miguel Montero (C—Ari): Knee surgery sidelined him for two-and-a-half months last season, but he returned in June to finish with nine HRs, 43 RBI, .266 average in 297 at-bats. He’ll have to return his strikeout and contact rates to ‘09 form to reach 15 HRs, 60 RBI, .270 average in 2011.

11. Kurt Suzuki (C—Oak): Excellent strikeout and contact rates set him apart. His .245 BABIP last season yielded a career-low .242 batting average, so a return to the .260-.270 range in 2011 is likely. Team additions such as DeJesus, Willingham and Matsui will take pressure off his bat; 15 HRs and 65 RBI should ensue.

12. John Buck (C—Fla): Elevated BABIP (.335) and a few “just enough” home runs aided his 20-HR, .281-average 2010 season. Fifteen HRs is possible with the Marlins in 2011, but he hadn’t topped a .247 average in six seasons before ‘10. Embarrassing strikeout, walk and contacts rates will limit his .250 average.

13. John Jaso (C—TB): Superb strikeout (11.5%), walk (14.6%) and contact (88.4%) rates suggest him as a likely “second-leadoff” type batting ninth in the Rays’ lineup with Zobrist, Damon and Longoria to follow. Double-digit power is unlikely, but 60 runs and RBI should come with .270 average.

14. Russell Martin (C—NYY): Similarities in walk, contact and line-drive rates from ‘07 and ‘08 to last season suggest a return to fantasy relevance isn’t far fetched. While 20/20 line is no longer likely, 10 HRs, 10 steals, and a .270 average are realistic given his lineup protection and home park.

15. Chris Iannetta (C—Col): Soon-to-be 28-year-old has been handed starting gig, but decline in ISO power and batting average as part-timer in recent seasons is concerning. Outside shot at 20 HRs, .250 average given 400 at-bats this season.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• Nos. 81-90: Upton, Young or Werth?
• Nos. 91-100: Markakis, Rasmus or Granderson?

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Sleeper Alert: Danny Espinosa
• The Enigma That Is Russell Martin
• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact

Colby Rasmus soared through the St. Louis Cardinals’ system after being selected in the first round of the 2005 draft, touted as a toolsy prospect with major upside. He’s displayed his impressive skill set at the major league level, even showing improvements from his rookie to sophomore season:

• 2009: 520 at-bats, 16 HRs, three steals, 6.9 walk rate, .251/.307/.407
• 2010: 534 at-bats, 23 HRs, 12 steals, 11.8 walk rate, .276/.361/.498

Yet despite these progressions, a few red flags leave me concerned.

Rasmus’ strikeout rate ballooned from a respectable 20.0 percent in ‘09, to a whopping 31.9 percent last season. Likewise, his contact rate dropped from 78.6 percent in his rookie year to just 75.7 percent in 2010 (MLB average: 80.7 percent).

Although his batting average did increase 25 points from his rookie campaign, it was likely aided by a generous .354 BABIP (.282 in ‘09). Unless Rasmus greatly improves his contact rate, a normalized BABIP will send his batting average back into the .250 range.

Rasmus’ fly-ball rate (45.7 percent in ‘09, 48.6 percent in ‘10) isn’t exactly conducive to a high average either, and his .277 batting clip in four minor league seasons (1,533 at-bats) suggests he’ll likely never hit for a high average.

While he did swipe 12 bases last year, he needed 20 attempts to do so, generating an embarrassing 60 percent success rate. Rasmus is projected to bat second in the Cardinals’ lineup this season, which will likely limit his stolen base opportunities. This will, however, increase the quality of pitches he sees, and he will certainly push for 90 runs with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday hitting behind him.

The 24-year-old left-handed slugger has an outside shot at 30 HRs and 10 steals this year, but it will likely come with a .260’s batting average. If Rasmus can cut down on his strikeouts and improve his contact rate, his value will go through the roof.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• Nos. 81-90: Upton, Young or Werth?
• Nos. 91-100: Markakis, Rasmus or Granderson?

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact