It’s really hard for me in the midst of a brutal

I posted my thoughts on Derek Lee and his contributions to the Cubs season in my last post and I can not reiterate enough what a valuable player he was during a rough year. Now on my return trip to the Baseball Reflections landscape I wanted to play a little game I call: Good Idea / Bad Idea. The game is simple, and unfortunately for you, I am the only one who can play until the comments section. I’ll just jump right in, I think you’ll get the hang of it pretty quick.

Good Idea: Make a move for Curtis Granderson

What an entrance Tom Ricketts could make if he were able to pull a deal off for a top of the lineup guy with pop in his bat and speed on the bases. Granderson is just 28 years old and the Tigers are in some financial distress, the only question is if the Cubs will be willing to part with or if they even have the prospects needed to make a deal like this. You can forget a Milton Bradley to Detroit scenario, it’s not happening. So it would be up to Hendry to decide if he is willing to part with players like Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox or even Starlin Castro (not likely). Another nugget: Granderson is from Lynwood.

Bad Idea: Bringing Back Milton

I would hope that this one is a no brainer. Milton, while not the only problem in Chicago last season, was one of the biggest. Not only did he disappoint on the field, but apparently he was loathed in the clubhouse by most.

One of the things the Cubs of 2008 had was chemistry. All that went out the door when Uncle Milty came to town. I heard a recent report that players actually applauded when informed of his suspension from the team. The Cubs would be wise to do whatever it takes to rid themselves of this guy, and I think they will.

Good Idea: Move Ryan Theriot to second base

I like Ryan, he’s scrappy (do we ever say that about non-white players, I suppose that’s another article), but the guy needs to go over to second base. There are two good reasons for this: 1) he does not have the range or the arm to play short the way the Cubs need him to, though D. Lee does make a lot of infielders look better. 2) the door would then be open for a real shortstop, maybe even a veteran who they could use for one season.

Who am I thinking of? Well there are two names that come to mind, Miguel Tejada and Marco Scutaro. Scutaro had a career year in 2009, batting .282 with 12 HRs and 60 RBI. Tejada, who is on the downside of his career, and who is a Cubs nemesis, is 35 but hit .315 with 12 HRs and drove in 86. I would like to see either playing in a Cubs uniform, but I won’t hold my breath.

Bad Idea: Make Kosuke Fukudome your CF

I don’t think the Cubs have any intention of doing this, but they need to find a switch hitting or left handed OF to play center to avoid this. I have already made my case for Granderson in CF, but that may not be a possibility. Another player that Hendry liked in years past was Marlon Byrd. Byrd was another career year guy in 2008. His 20 HRs and 89 RBI were both career highs, and with Rudy Jaramillo now on the Cubs bench, this could be the answer in CF. He doesn’t answer the lefty concern, but a move for him would put Fukudome back in right, the place where he belongs.

Good Idea: Let Rich Harden and Reed Johnson go

Two more players that I really like. Unfortunately Rich is a constant health concern and his inability to go deep in games really hurt the Cubs in 2009. His talent level is obviously there but he leaves too big of a question mark in the rotation.

Reed Johnson is so white and grindy, and if he had been healthy he might have fit well in the Cubs plans for ’09. For 2010 the Cubs must move on and the asking price for Johnson might be too high for what would most likely be a platoon role in CF.

Bad Idea: Staring directly in to the face of Sammy Sosa

Seriously? What is the deal with that? I was worried that if I looked at that picture too long I was going to lose my sight.

So those are some thoughts on the Cubs for late November. I am sure there are others and hopefully you will share your thoughts.

What can you offer up about the Cubs that hasn’t already been said? The Cubs have been a major disappointment in 2009 and yet, following Wednesday’s game they only find themselves 5.5 games out of first place. Yes, they also trail four other teams besides the Colorado Rockies, and yes they don’t even resemble in the least a playoff team, but that glimmer of hope is something that Cubs fans have grown accustomed to holding on to.

For the purposes of this post, which is my first as the resident Cubs voice on Baseball Reflections, I wanted to focus not on the negative, which is plentiful, but rather on the positive, of which there is little.

The Cubs of 2009 will become part of Cubs lore, much like the goat, the black cat, 1984, Alex Gonzalez (you know what I’m talking about) and all that crap. They will be remembered for what they couldn’t do rather than what they could, and that is so Cubs-like. They will be remembered for their contracts, their salaries and their failures.

And then there is Derrek Lee.

Where would the Cubs be without Derrek Lee? If you think things are bad now, picture what they could have been like if Lee had not stepped in and played the way he did this season. When Aramis Ramirez went down any number of Cubs could have kicked their game into another gear and pulled the Cubs through, but none did, except Derrek Lee.

Ramirez went down on May 8th in Milwaukee while Lee was battling an injury himself. At the time the Cubs were 16-13 and Lee was hitting just .208 on the young season (and you know who you are if you called for Micah Hoffpauir). When Derrek returned on May 12th he immediately began to contribute like the leader of a team should, hitting .300 for the remainder of the month of May. In June, when the Cubs as a team hit just .233, Lee hit .333 with six home runs and 20 RBI. Lee followed June with a .295 average and nine home runs and 27 RBI in July. In August it was .318/6/22.

Looking into Derrek’s splits only makes one appreciate him more. The Cubs have struggled this season with runners in scoring position hitting under .250 in those spots. In those same situations Derrek is hitting .303 with nine homers and 68 driven in. He is hitting .287 with runners on base and if their loaded watch out. He is not quite Pujols like, but his .615 average, two Grand Slams and 24 RBI are enough to make opposing pitchers nervous.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

It is more than the numbers when it comes to Derrek Lee though. He also provides leadership with his demeanor. While Carlos Zambrano is busy accosting Gatorade coolers and breaking bats over his knees, and Milton Bradley is occupied with the fans, Lee has remained a rock. As turbulent as 2009 has been, Lee hasn’t once made headlines with his words or actions, other than when they are positive.

It is easy to take for granted a guy like Derrek Lee who has been with the Cubs for six seasons now. He isn’t flashy. You won’t get a great sound bite from him. He hasn’t led the league in any offensive categories since his break out year of 2005. He hasn’t won any major awards, and he probably won’t this season either. It would be wise if Cubs fans took notice, in a year as forgettable as this, of what they have in a player like Derrek Lee. You would have a hard time convincing me that any player in baseball has done more for his team than Derrek Lee has in 2009 for the Chicago Cubs.

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a precarious situation. A team that was built from the inside with three-fourths of an infield (Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy), a pair of slugging corner outfielders (Ryan Braun, Corey Hart) and an ace in the making (Yovani Gallardo), is now being looked at as thin when it comes to minor league prospects. With Dave Bush on the DL, Jeff Suppan suffering an oblique injury that threatens his next start and the rest of the staff being either inconsistent or inexperienced at best, the Brewers need help and may not have the tools to get something done.

Here’s what reporter Jay Jaffe had to say about the Brewers at the trade deadline:

“One reason the Brewers might be standing pat is that their prospects are generating very little interest. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is seen as untouchable, and while sources indicate that there might be some interest in dealing for Mat Gamel, not only does Milwaukee not really have a place for him, his defensive limitations have him pegged by scouts as an AL-only type of player. Beyond that, the system has taken a bit of a step backwards, and they simply don’t have the chips on the table to pull off a big deal.” – Jay Jaffe

That is not what Brewers fans want to hear. Especially the two dopes I sat behind at a Brewers-Cubs game a couple of months ago that made sure to high five after every Brewer accomplishment and exclaim condescendingly, “How did we get that guy? Oh yeah, drafted him!” Fantastic.

Well here it is, your “drafted” team, dropping two in a row to the Nationals, at home. I think they forgot to include pitching in that scouting process, and it’s starting to show.

Last season the Brewers grabbed CC Sabathia, the prize of the deadline. It payed off immensely. CC single handedly carried their team into the playoffs. What they gave up was Zach Jackson and minor leaguers Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley and Rob Bryson. Not bad. LaPorta is hitting well in Columbus but his defense remains questionable at best. Brantley is well liked by scouts, who think he could be a “Kenny Lofton-type producer.” Jackson, now at Columbus, was hit hard in three appearances this season. All-in-all it looks like it served Milwaukee’s purposes well.

Now they are left with Alcides Escobar and Matt Gamel as their top two prospects, and it seems they are untouchable. Without the willingness to deal the “big chips” the Brewers won’t be able to pull off a deal good enough to save this season.

So what can they do?

They are now two games below .500 and they trail the division leading Cardinals by 4.5 games. They can at best only split this 4 game series with the Nationals, and they are about to head out on the road for 9 games, 6 of those out west (3 with LA). The schedule in August looks to be pretty soft, so maybe there is some time to make it up there. But…you know the phrase, “if you can’t spot the sucker at the table…”. Well, the more you look at the schedule and proclaim, “it gets easier in ____”, the more you start to forget that others are looking at their schedule and saying the same when they see your team coming. It was thought by many that this team would be an 80-85 win club. Each day it’s looking more and more likely that they will finish right around that number.

Brewers Ace Yovani Gallardo

While it shouldn’t be overlooked that this team is 11-12 against teams above .500 and is 5-0 against Pittsburgh, the schedule is not their problem. What was considered a problem in the off-season was how this team was going to perform without two of their top starters returning to the rotation. Step in Yovani Gallardo, a strong performance from their bullpen thus far, a lineup that is producing 4.9 runs per game and you have a team that is as hot as any in Major League Baseball.

Gallardo, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan and newcomer Braden Looper form a staff that leads the league in quality starts (19), is second with an opponent’s batting average of .241 and is fourth in WHIP at 1.33. Out of the bullpen Mark DiFelice, Seth McClung, Todd Coffey and Mitch Stetter have all given up 18 earned runs in 58 games and with Trevor Hoffman now healthy and having saved five games in five chances, the Brewers have arms they can rely on, something that was of major concern entering 2009.

Brewers LF Ryan Braun

On offense, there was only confidence heading into the season. It was said over and over again that this team would score runs, and a lot of them. So far the offense has fared well, scoring 158 in their 32 games to date, good for fourth in the NL. How are they doing it? Not with small ball that’s for sure. The Brewers rank seventh in the NL in average at .258 as a team, but what they lack in that category they make up for in power. Milwaukee has hit 40 home runs, led by Ryan Braun’s eight and Rickie Weeks’ seven. Even Gallardo has found his power stroke, knocking two out of the yard this season, including one that proved to be the lone run in a 1-0 eight inning gem versus the Pirates.

In the spirit of the Baseball Reflections theme it is hard to not consider how much Ryan Braun means to this team, sabermetrically speaking. Anchored in the middle of this powerful lineup Braun has the potential to change a game at any moment, something he proved against the Cubs on Friday night with a go ahead two run homer in the eighth inning. Braun is fifth in runs created (30.4) behind only Jason Bay, Albert Pujols, Victor Martinez and Evan Longoria and he is fourth in runs created per 27 outs at 10.93. If you take Braun out of this lineup they are only hitting .247 and he is currently hitting .429 in May.

Rickie Weeks has also been a catalyst for this team. A career .247 hitter, Weeks is being counted on to have a breakout season in 2009. So far he is doing just that. At .277 with seven home runs and 21 RBI and 24 runs scored Rickie is providing something this team sorely missed during his previous season’s struggles, a lead off man to set the table for guys like Braun and Prince Fielder. He is second on the team in hits with 36.

This team looks to be a contender in a division that seems to be up for grabs, for now. Solid starting pitching and timely big hits have them right in the mix now. The Cubs have faced massive injury issues, and despite the Cardinals fast start they are just two games ahead of Milwaukee. And you can’t forget about Cincinnati, who seems to have some strong arms in their rotation as well and some young talent in the lineup.

The Brewers now enter a tough stretch in which they will play three with Florida before heading out of Milwaukee for a nine game trip through St. Louis (first series of the season), Houston and Minnesota. They come home to three more against the Cardinals and three with Cincinnati. We’ll see exactly what this team is made of in the weeks to come. Too bad you can’t play Pittsburgh every day.

THE 2009 STAFF

Yovani Gallardo, the most likely candidate to lead the staff, has ace-like promise, but the sample size is small because of a near season ending injury he suffered last season. The 23-year old Gallardo has made 21 career starts and is 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. The injury should have little to no affect on him other than limiting his experience. Look for Gallardo to win 15+ games in front of a stronger offense in Milwaukee.

Manny Parra who has all of 31 starts under his belt started 2008 strong, going 9-2 through mid-July, but he struggled in the second half, posting an ERA of 5.31 and eventually finished the season just 10-8. Parra will need to play in 2009 like he did in the first half of 2008 or the Brewers will find themselves struggling to keep pace in the NL Central.

Dave Bush will enter his fourth season with the Brewers and the previous three were consistently inconsistent. In 2008 Bush was in the top five in the NL in WHIP but he again struggled to keep his ERA down. I documented in one of my posts on my own blog (Bush getting settled in new look rotation) some of the reasons for this. A lot of it has to do with his inability to keep the ball in the park and his struggles keeping the runners that do get on base from crossing home plate. You can expect another .500 year with an ERA just over four for Bush.

Jeff Suppan has been the recipient of some Brewer fan angst over the past year, and his struggles in Spring Training this season have done little to calm their nerves. At 34 he becomes the veteran of the staff, that and his ability to chew up innings may be the best qualities he offers this team. In 2008 Suppan posted an ERA of nearly 5.00, and surrendered 30 home runs, finishing the season 10-10. Slotted in the fourth or fifth spot of the rotation is where he is best suited, and around .500 is where he will end up at season’s end.

Rounding out the rotation will be Braden Looper, assuming he is healthy enough to go. Looper is Suppan-esque in many ways including his ability to eat up innings. At 34, he will be entering his third year as a starter having made just 63 starts since 2007. Looper is a 24-26 as a starter and Brewer fans should expect much the same from Braden as they expect from Suppan. I pulled some numbers to illustrate the similarities between the two pitchers. The first line is Looper from 2007 and the second Suppan from last year:

SEASON	TEAM	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	ERA
2007	StL	31	30	0	175.0	183	100	96	22	51	87	12	12	4.94
2008	Mil	31	31	0	177.2	207	110	98	30	67	90	10	10	4.96

Eerie.

THE BULLPEN

The Brewers needed a closer with the retirement of Solomon Torres, enter Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman still shows signs of being effective despite his age and should be steady for the Brewers. Carlos Villanueva, Jorge Julio, Seth McClung, Todd Coffey and Mitch Stetter form a crew that has as many question marks as the starters. With relievers for any team, each season offers something different and what this bunch can do will be seen when April hits.

THE LINEUP

I have read a couple of Brewer previews prior to writing this one, and one common theme focuses on the Brewers ability to score runs. Yet they return much of the same players to the lineup, one that scored the seventh most runs in the National League in 2008, 105 runs fewer than the Chicago Cubs. A main reason for the lack of run production can be found in a team batting average of .253 in ’08.

Ryan Braun who was moved from 3B to LF in ’08 and hit .285 with 37 HRs and 106 RBI, leading the team in all three categories. Expect more of the same from one of the league’s premier young sluggers.

Prince Fielder’s production tailed off in just about every category on 2008. Coming off his 50-homer season in 2007, Fielder’s numbers took a hit and the people were quick to attribute it to everything from his new all veggie diet to weight gain. In May Prince will turn 25 and many believe he is due for a rebound. That birthday could be just what he needs. In 2007 from May 30 forward, he batted .277 with 28 home runs, 77 RBIs and a .925 OPS.

Only Florida and Philadelphia hit more home runs than Milwaukee in 2008, and the 71 they got from Prince and Braun were only the beginning. Three other players including Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart all chipped in with 20+, and they may need similar power numbers from those three in ’09, especially if they are unable to improve on their individual batting averages. While Hardy hit a respectable .285, Hart struggled at .268 and Cameron did as well at .243 while striking out a team high 142 times.

Bill Hall did much of the same hitting only .225 and he has not been able to find the stroke that allowed him to hit 35 home runs in 2006. Hall was Jekyll and Hyde against righties and lefties. Against south paws he hit .306 with a .893 OPS, against righties he hit an atrocious .107.

The Brewers will go with Rickie Weeks at leadoff, and I have to believe it’s because they can’t find another spot for him. In his five-year career Weeks is a .245 hitter and in 2008 he hit a career low .234. He does have a knack for the plate though. Despite his inability to get on base consistently when he does get on he scores. Weeks scored 89 runs in ’08 which was 18^th in the NL. On the bright side…he is only 26.

PROSPECT WATCH

If you think the platoon of Bill Hall and Mike Lamb will last the season, I say think again. The Brewers have prospect Matt Gamel waiting in the wings to take over at 3B, and he will most likely only begin the season at Triple-A. Gamel is often compared to Ryan Braun and by mid-season he could be called up to show his skills at the major league level.

If Weeks continues to struggle you might see Hardy move to 2B to make room for Alcides Escobar. Escobar has a major league glove, but the bat is the issue right now. He doesn’t walk often enough and that keeps his speed at bay too much to make him an option for the big league club any time soon.

OUTLOOK

Most experts have this team winning around 80-85 games in 2009, and I think that is pretty accurate. The Brewers should be able to score runs, but I see them coming in bunches and not as consistently as people would like to think. Add that to a pitching staff that will be equally inconsistent and you have the recipe for a .500 team. Braun, Fielder and Hardy will do their part to keep this team rolling, but in the end they finish no better than second in the NL Central.

To read more from Rex Jaybels make sure to follow this link to i94 Sports which focuses on Chicago and Milwaukee sports.