The Detroit Tigers were supposed to take baseball by storm this season. The addition of Prince Fielder meant World Series or bust. Playing in what many deemed the worst division in baseball could only mean domination. Some fans even predicted a similar start to the 1984 Detroit Tigers’ 35-5 record.

One month in, and that didn’t quite happen. A lot occurred to derail Detroit’s potential hot start.

The season began with some bad luck when Doug Fister departed his first start with a left side strain, not the type of injury a pitcher can rush back from. The team also experienced Jose Valverde’s first blown save in over a year, foreshadowing some early season struggles. And the pesky second base situation, a position that remains with more questions than answers, hasn’t helped the stability in the field or lineup.

Add in inconsistencies from Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, at least one of which Detroit desperately needs to step up, and Delmon Young’s recent off field tirade and the Tigers continue finding the road to a championship is filled with bumps.

Let’s not fool ourselves either; the Tigers are a good baseball team, one that can attain greatness. But also, a team that needed to face some adversity early to know championships can’t be won on paper.

So what exactly is wrong with the Tigers? We’ll start with the least of their concerns, the hitting.

Keep Swinging

The Tigers offense produced average numbers in the first month. Prince Fielder hit well, but experienced some adjustment to the American League as he still seeks his power stroke. The bottom of the lineup that plagued Detroit much of last year continued to do so as Jim Leyland tooled with the lineup daily.  Even Miguel Cabrera encountered an 0 for 22 hitless streak along the way, the second longest of his career.

Of course, Cabrera kept swinging and reestablished his position as one of the most complete hitters in baseball. And that’s a big reason Detroit will be fine in the long run on offense. Cabrera and Fielder both maintained averages around .300 in the first month even with certain struggles. Cabrera will not experience another slump lasting that long and Fielder proved in past seasons a slow power start for him means nothing for the remainder of the season.

Another person to watch has been Austin Jackson, who seems to have found a swing and shorter kick that works for him. Jackson’s strikeout numbers remain high and seem like they will for his career, but he has a renewed focus on reaching base. Jackson walked more than Cabrera or Fielder in the first month of the season. He also found ways to be more patient, get ahead in the count and play for contact. The team depends on Fielder and Cabrera, but without base runners like Jackson for them to knock in, their plate opportunities become wasted. Other players struggling have shown consistency in the past, but Jackson may be the most important in keeping the lineup stable.

Miguel Cabrera (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

While some of the hitters struggling are veterans who may be readjusting to the cold and grind of another season, the bottom of Detroit’s lineup has had questions for years. This year, however, certain moves were recently made that may allow some cohesion in the 7, 8, 9 spots.

The Brandon Inge saga came to a close a few weeks into the season and Leyland no longer has the pressure of playing him in a certain amount of games. Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago will gain more consistent playing time to find their rhythms. Alex Avila, the young catcher, has a legitimate backup in Gerald Laird this year, in hopes that he won’t wear down like he did last season. Avila has been up and down early this year, which mirrors last season. He can become hot in an instant.

Finally, Delmon Young’s suspension may not be such a terrible thing for the team after all. The team is forced to insert some of its younger depth players in the lineup. Andy Dirks, Danny Worth, and Don Kelly all have the opportunity for real playing time for the first time this season. Even if they struggle now, the continuity will help the overall depth of the Tigers later in the season.

In The Field

Before anyone saw Detroit’s mediocre start, the number one question revolved around the Tigers ability to field a baseball. Cabrera moved to third base, the Tigers lacked a true second baseman, and a couple outfielders could use some work.

So far the fielding has been good enough. The Tigers are average in errors and fielding percentage.  Nothing has truly cost them any games yet that occurred in the field. The only worrisome stat is their lack of Baseball Reference’s defensive efficiency, where they reside near the bottom.  Certain plays stick out early like Delmon Young turning in circles as the ball falls next to him.

As for Cabrera, the biggest question mark, he has been okay. He has shown good range and a very strong arm. The only issue early with his fielding would be handling balls while on the run. Whether it is a bunt or a slow roller, if Cabrera doesn’t have time to set and throw an adventure may ensue. In the Seattle series and Yankees series a few bunts headed his way that caused some issues. Expect more teams to challenge him with bunting as he relearns how to handle those plays. His improvement will be vital in the stretch run and in the playoffs when runs become even more precious.

Find the Strike Zone

The final area of concern and the one that will make or break Detroit is pitching. No matter how well a team hits, the final result usually revolves around pitching. The good news: Justin Verlander is still Justin Verlander. Add in the emergence of rookie Drew Smyly, a former 2010 second round pick with an ERA under 1.50 in his first four starts, the foundation for a solid rotation exists.

As previously mentioned, the Fister injury set things back a bit. His spot has been filled by spot starters who don’t last too many innings. If Fister comes back healthy in May as expected, Detroit may have their top three pitchers, even if number three (Smyly) is an unlikely source.

That leaves Porcello and Scherzer, two with high expectations who looked shaky in April. Porcello showed promise in his first two starts of the season, going seven or more in each and giving up a total of three runs. Then he got steamrolled versus Texas and followed up with a dud against Seattle. This is the 23 year-old righty’s fourth year in the majors and he must find a way to stay dependable start to start with an ERA under 4.00.

Max Scherzer warming up his arm during pre-game, Tigers at Royals, June 4, 2010. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The bigger mystery, however, resides in Scherzer. He walked seven in his final April start and gave up at least 3 runs in each of his five starts. Scherzer traditionally struggles in the first half of the season, but Detroit can’t afford to wait around too long. He has yet to go beyond six innings in any start, putting pressure on an already tired bullpen.

Having a tired bullpen in April is not a good sign for the future. Detroit currently stands in the bottom 10 in ERA and innings pitched for starter pitchers. Considering Verlander pitched three games into the ninth inning in April, the other starters aren’t holding up their end of the bargain. Detroit dug deep bringing various relievers up and down from the minors to try and find some cohesion.

Octavio Dotel, brought in as a free agent, produced the strongest numbers of any reliever in April. The two mainstays of Joaquin Benoit and Valverde from last season, however, struggled throughout the month. Both were vital in Detroit’s late season surge to pull away and reach the playoffs. While each pitcher should gain more of a rhythm, both have struggled at various points in their careers and the Tigers may keep one eye open for extra reliever help down the road.

Only one other reliever, recently converted back to a starter Duane Below, showed true promise in April. When Fister comes back, Below may be put back in the long relief role he flourished in. The Tigers also saw Phil Coke do what he does. He won’t dominate, but in non-pressure situations he can help keep the score down.

So what does all this mean? Teams often struggle in April, but Detroit’s holes were exposed quicker than many envisioned. Instead of the bottom falling out later, the team knows where it must improve as the season goes in. Expect Detroit to remain average for another month as they gain their bearings and start doing the little things it takes to win. The flashy 10 run victories aren’t going to magically appear so the team will learn to manufacture runs in other ways. By June, the team should catch fire and don’t be surprised if the AL Central begins to follow the preseason predictions of a Tigers runaway.

Photo taken from Google Images

The Detroit Tigers were silent long enough. An offseason that had so far peaked with the weak uneventful signing of reliever Octavio Dotel and plummeted with the news of Victor Martinez tearing his ACL just got a lot more exciting. Prince Fielder joins Miguel Cabrera to form the best middle of the lineup in baseball for the foreseeable future.

The Signing

Rumors swirled around Detroit all off-season about possible additions to shore up pitching or hitting. The “big” names included Matt Garza, Yoennis Cespedes, and Jose Reyes, as Detroit needed speed or a solid third starter. Detroit wasn’t supposed to have a lot of money to spend. Dombrowski himself said Detroit wouldn’t pay for another $20 million per year player. And Prince Fielder? Besides not truly needing another power hitter, let alone a first baseman, many thought he wouldn’t play where his estranged father Cecil became a star.

Then Martinez got hurt…

Whether Detroit was serious about Fielder before the injury is unknown. Even if the team claims the two are unrelated, something went through Mike Ilitch’s mind the moment he heard his star DH was most likely out for the season. Ilitch has desperately sought a World Series win after tasting a sample of what could be in 2006. Maybe he thought the dream was now slipping away. That gave the remaining ammo for Dombrowski to use all money necessary for Scott Boras to bring Prince Fielder to Detroit.

Mike Ilitch, once known as the worst owner in baseball, has officially solidified himself near the top.

2012

Before the signing, the Tigers were still easy favorites in what may be the weakest division in baseball, the AL Central.  This move puts them right on par with the Angels, Rangers and Yankees after their big pitching heist earlier in the offseason.

But Detroit might not be finished.

Signing Fielder may be great for the lineup, but Detroit entered the offseason with some pitching question marks. Justin Verlander and Doug Fister give the team a solid 1-2 punch, but the inconsistencies of Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer cannot be overlooked. Add in a still vacant fifth spot in the rotation and work remains for the front office.

As baseball continues to prove yearly with teams touting monster lineups, pitching still wins championships.

Ilitch must continue to give Dombrowski free reign of the baseball world to complete the All Star roster Detroit has begun to assemble. Members of the farm system become more expendable as the roster sees less spots open for the future.

The rumored Matt Garza deal may come to fruition still or Roy Oswalt deciding to join in on the Detroit bandwagon, but Detroit doesn’t have to act immediately. A combination of the weak AL Central and the depth of the lineup; however, allow the Tigers to take their time making a move. A team never knows what pitchers will become available by the trade deadline as Detroit proved by grabbing Doug Fister last season.

Without Martinez for the season Fielder and Cabrera should play every game of the season as they switch off days at DH. This can also help ease Cabrera back into a third base role so he can readjust to the riggers of the hot corner.

As for the lineup itself, Jim Leyland would be wise to glue Miguel Cabrera at the three spot with Prince Fielder cleaning up. This would mirror his situation with Ryan Braun in Milwaukee, a spot he dominated.

The lineup as a whole should look like this:

Austin Jackson

Brennan Boesch

Miguel Cabrera

Prince Fielder

Delmon Young

Alex Avila

Jhonny Peralta

Don Kelly/Brandon Inge

Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn

Uncertainty still exists with the leadoff spot and the very bottom, but there is very little room to pitch around anybody.

Fielder and Cabrera should continue with their annual .400 OBPs coupled with 35+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. If Austin Jackson improves on his strikeouts and Boesch exhibits patience at the plate, pitchers will have nowhere to go.

In addition, Delmon Young should parlay the strength in front of him with last season and continue to be a valuable contributor for the Tigers. A healthy Alex Avila, who has a now serviceable backup in Gerald Laird, should get back the hitting groove that solidified the catcher position as his own. Detroit won’t need to ride Avila as hard with consistency and power coming from Cabrera and Fielder.

All that being said, an MVP pitcher and lineup featuring two potential Hall of Famers in their prime makes winning the AL Central simply not good enough.

Beyond 2012

Assuming the world doesn’t end after the 2012 baseball season, the Detroit Tigers will have at least five years with that core of Cabrera, Fielder, and Verlander. This announces to baseball: World Series or bust!

Add a healthy Victor Martinez in 2013 and 2014 to an already terrifying lineup for opposing hitters and the future only gets brighter. If the supporting cast of pitchers and hitters succeed in their roles there’s no reason to think Detroit won’t be playing in late October at least once.

If Detroit doesn’t win a World Series over the length of Prince’s contract, regardless of his numbers, he becomes the one of the most disappointing free agent signings in baseball history.

If I’m the Tigers, however, I like my chances.

Justin Verlander, after a remarkable 2011 season, will be called upon to do more of the same in 2012.

The Detroit Tigers had a year to remember.

The season can be looked at from different angles of both good and bad, but after reaching the American League Championship Series for the second time in five years the team knows it can get there again.

The Tigers were one of the hottest teams in baseball in August and September, but injuries, lack of depth and general wear and tear left them with an empty gas tank by the end of the series with the Texas Rangers. Now Detroit faces questions on how to improve a team that went 95-67 and was two games away from a World Series appearance.

The Tigers find themselves in a favorable AL Central where they could potentially be the favorite for the next few years. With the strongest starting pitching and most stable roster, their 50-22 record against Central foes this season may be repeatable.

When looking at Detroit’s roster, the team can be broken down into several categories. Most of the players from last season are likely to return, but if Detroit has the opportunity to make a beneficial trade with a second-tiered piece or two, they will jump at it.

Guaranteed to return:
Starting pitchers: Justin Verlander and Doug Fister.
Relief pitchers: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit.
Line-up: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Alex Avila, Delmon Young and Jhonny Peralta.

Guaranteed to leave: Brad Penny, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez and Wilson Betemit

Leaving players like Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch off the guaranteed to return list may surprise some. All of those players have very solid qualities and young enough to hold value for the future whether kept or not.. However, each also has a flaw or two in his game. Jackson strikes out too much; Boesch hasn’t proven consistent over a whole season; and Porcello and Scherzer lack consistency.

So what are the Tigers most pressing needs and where could some of those and other players fit in?

First, middle relief. The likes of Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, and Ryan Perry won’t cut it. In the playoffs, the lack of confidence Jim Leyland displayed in the bullpen was almost criminal near the end. It sealed the fate that this is Detroit’s most pressing need. He forced Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde to expend their arms to near death before reluctantly turning to anyone else. Add in Dave Dombrowski, president, chief executive officer and general manager, calling out Ryan Perry in the off-season and Detroit can be seen as unhappy with relief- pitcher development.

Unfortunately for Tigers fans, Detroit won’t break the bank through free agency for a middle reliever, but will target a steady veteran or two. Most free-agent relievers are in their mid 30s and bring a specific mediocre trait at this point in their career. With so many young relievers on the roster, Detroit might try to hold out until mid-season to decide if anyone can be trusted. A trade should be expected at some point, but if they go the free-agency route…

Possible targets of desperation: Luis Ayala, Chad Qualls, Todd Coffey and Mike Gonzalez.

Next up is the infield. Detroit needs a steady second baseman, third baseman and back-up catcher. Brandon Inge and Don Kelly are nestled in at third, and Ryan Raburn at second. Ramon Santiago is a free agent and a fan favorite, but if the team re-signs him it probably means Detroit is holding steady at second base. Detroit cannot afford to platoon both second and third base for the second year in a row.

Detroit should focus on one position and go all in. If they took it to the extreme targeting Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins at shortstop (and moving over Jhonny Peralta) would thrill many fans. It’d solve the need for a lead-off hitter and add speed to a team that stole less than 50 bases last season.

Rumors that Detroit won’t splurge, however, makes players like Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill the more logical and obvious targets. Second base is more important for the future as the Tigers believe Nick Castellanos will take over third as soon as 2013. If Aramis Ramirez is willing to come to Detroit at around $10 million for a year, he might be worth a shot.

As for a back-up catcher, the options are limited. But Detroit will sign somebody, such as Henry Blanco, to a cheap deal. The team hopes Victor Martinez can handle a bit more time at catcher than last season, but the team cannot afford to lack insurance this time around. Alex Avila’s body completely broke down by the end of September and left him a shell of who he was for when the playoffs arrived.

As for the outfield, it appears set with Delmon Young, Austin Jackson, and Brennan Boesch, but if Detroit can negotiate a trade to solidify right or center field, management will not hesitate to do so.

That leads to starting pitching, the strength of the team. Justin Verlander and Doug Fister formed the best one-two punch down the stretch and hope to replicate what was a special season. Verlander seemed to wear down in the playoffs, but don’t expect much drop-off from a dominating season where he fully matured.

As for the other rotation spots, Scherzer and Porcello will be numbers 3 and 4 unless a “can’t miss” deal comes along where one of the two is offered up.

That leaves the fifth spot. Jacob Turner, the 20-year-old prospect, will see time in the majors, but expect a signing of some type to let his development continue in the minors for part of the season. A lefty, like Bruce Chen, could fit in nicely with the Tigers’ rotation.

Expect the Tigers to be very quiet early, but make a mediocre splash sometime before the winter ends. In Dave Dombrowski’s off-season press conference, he left open the possibility of surprise, while acknowledging a weak free-agent class for the team’s needs.

The Tigers have a roster good enough to win the American League Central again, but need a couple more pieces to make them championship contenders.

While both National League Divisional Series will be going to a decisive Game 5 tonight, the Tigers and Rangers have each earned a berth to their league’s Championship Series. We’ll take a look at how these two teams match up to try to determine which club will represent the AL in the World Series.

Offense

Each of these clubs featured one of the more prolific offenses in the AL. The Rangers scored the third most runs of any AL team over the course of the season, while the Tigers scored the fourth most. However, the gap between them is larger than that statistic might indicate. The Rangers were the only team that was able to keep up with the big-money clubs in New York and Boston, as their 855 runs were only 20 behind the league-leading Sox. After the Rangers, there’s a large gap, as the Tigers scored 787 runs to finish fourth in the league. Advanced statistics suggest the gap between the teams’ offenses is a little smaller, as the Rangers’ wRC+ of 113 outpaced the Tigers by only 4%.

The Rangers’ offense got big production from some surprising places this year, while several of the players who carried the team to last season’s World Series have taken a step back. The team’s leader in offensive value was catcher Mike Napoli. Napoli spent 2010 splitting time behind the plate in Anaheim with Jeff Mathis. This offseason, Napoli momentarily went to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells, although the deal was more about losing Wells’ massive contract and less about actually acquiring Napoli from the Jays’ perspective. Napoli was sent packing once again almost immediately, this time in exchange for closer Frank Francisco. Napoli has taken advantage of his new opportunity in Texas, putting up a 5.6 WAR in only 113 games through an impressive 178 wRC+. Napoli hit 30 home runs in 432 plate appearances during the regular season. The next lowest PA total for a 30-homer hitter was 525, nearly 100 chances more than Napoli. So, if you picked Napoli to lead the AL in slugging this year, well… I don’t believe you.

I discussed Ian Kinsler in my AL MVP post, but he deserves another mention, as he’s been incredibly valuable on both sides of the ball and had the most prolific offensive year of his career by a long shot. His 7.7 WAR was the best mark on the club. Adrian Beltre’s 5.7 WAR led the team’s position players other than Kinsler, and his 134 wRC+ was second only to Napoli. In his first season in Texas, Beltre earned the first installment of his big multiyear deal signed last offseason and then some, putting up big offensive numbers and playing the premium defense at the hot corner we’ve come to expect from him. It’s rare that 4.2 WAR is considered a letdown, but Josh Hamilton produced less than half as much this season as his MVP campaign in 2010. While his numbers may not make him an MVP candidate again this year, he’s certainly a dangerous hitter. After a season of unrest between Michael Young and his front office that ended with him requesting a trade, Young gave the Rangers some serious reasons to retain him. Young gave the team positional flexibility and another big bat in their deep, potent lineup. The Rangers were the only team in baseball with five players who produced 20 or more runs above average on offense, and that’s not even counting Nelson Cruz, who had a big down year after a breakout 2010.

While the Rangers do have a better lineup, the Tigers aren’t exactly slouches. Led by Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have a number of big bats in the middle of their lineup. Alex Avila’s breakout season was interrupted by a deep slump down the stretch and during the divisional series. The Tigers will have to hope he can bounce back during this series and continue to cement himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. Victor Martinez, acquired last offseason to protect Cabrera, has been effective in that role, as his 130 wRC+ this season tied a career high. Delmon Young, acquired on a waiver trade, has been a force in Detroit’s lineup over the final stretch of the team’s regular season, and then set a franchise record with three ALDS home runs. However, he left Game 5 with an oblique strain after his first inning home run. If the injury is significant, Young could be done for the postseason. The Tigers will be hoping it’s only a minor strain. Then there’s Jhonny Peralta who led all AL shortstops with 120 wRC+. Peralta put up a career-high 5.2 WAR in an outstanding season.

Pitching

C.J. Wilson is the clear ace of the Rangers staff. Wilson will hit free agency this season, and it’s been speculated that they’re likely to lose him to another team. Wilson’s 3.29 SIERA was 10th in the AL. He’ll be followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison. Holland had something of a breakout this year, putting up 3.6 WAR. He was behind only Neftali Feliz among the Rangers’ top pitching prospects in 2009 before joining the big club, and may be beginning to realize some of that potential. Harrison also had a pretty big breakout campaign, putting up 4.2 WAR in 30 starts after never topping 0.7 in his previous three seasons in the majors. Harrison is one of two Rangers who successfully moved from the bullpen to the rotation this season, as Alexi Ogando’s success as a starter has been a big storyline for this team. Ogando has been moved back to the bullpen for the playoff. He performed admirably throughout the Rangers’ series against the Rays, culminating in a spotless eighth inning of game 4 setting up Neftali Feliz for the series ending save. Ogando and Harrison’s success may pave the way for Feliz to move to the rotation next season, but the Rangers won’t begin to discuss that decision in earnest until the end of their playoff run.

Across the diamond, Justin Verlander put together one of the best seasons from any pitcher in recent memory. His last start of the season gave him a shot at being the first 25 game winner since Bob Welch in 1990. Not much else needs to be said about the Triple Crown winner, other than the fact that the Tigers will pitch him as many times as they possibly can in this series and every time they do he will almost certainly give them a chance to win. Verlander will be followed in the rotation by Rick Porcello, as the Tigers used both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer in their game 5 victory. Porcello and Scherzer are both young guys with big stuff, but who haven’t seen the results to match their potential yet. Both put up 2.7 WAR this season, Fister may end up being the most important acquisition by any team at this year’s trade deadline, although Hunter Pence will certainly give him a run for his money. Fister has produced 5,6 WAR this season, including 2.4 and a 2.63 SIERA in 70.1 innings with Detroit. These starters will hand the ball to the Tigers’ impressive bullpen, led by Jose “Papa Grande” Valverde. Valverde certainly has a tendency to make the ninth inning a bit of an adventure, but he’s 51-for-51 in save opportunities this season after closing out the ALDS in New York.

Home field advantage, which the Rangers clinched over the Tigers on the final day of the season, could be a huge deciding factor in this series. In the bandbox in Arlington, the Rangers’ potent office could take over games and simply out-mash the Tigers. However, in the expansive Comerica Park, the Tigers’ pitching will have a decided advantage. I think the Tigers will win at least two of their three home games, and I will be very surprised if Justin Verlander doesn’t give his team a fairly good chance to win at least one of the games in Arlington. If the Rangers can take the other three games in Arlington, that would likely set up a Verlander vs. Wilson in game 7 in Texas for all the marbles. In a deciding game, with the team on his back, it’s hard to bet against the best pitcher in the American League, so I’m going to take the Tigers to advance in what should be a thoroughly entertaining series.

Justin Verlander image taken from Google Images

The second half of the Detroit Tigers season hasn’t gone like many anticipated. And that’s a good thing. For the first time since 1987, the Detroit Tigers are division winners.

Exercising the Demons

            In order to win the division the Tigers needed to overcome some of the past that has haunted them. Under Jim Leyland the Detroit Tigers have never had a winning team in the second half of a season. As late as August 1, Detroit seemed destined to flirt with that fate and the expectations of a .500 ballclub. Whether they won the division or not, it was predetermined the AL Central winner would be squashed by their AL East opponent.

But something changed.

Image via Wikipedia

Justin Verlander’s bid to become the AL Cy Young award winner turned into a chase for the MVP award. Doug Fister started to give Detroit a true number two starter. Delmon Young added the perfect compliment in the batting order to Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Jose Valverde continued his consecutive saves streak as he inches towards 50. And all the players with varying roles in the lineup, rotation and bullpen simply locked down into their spots.

With all the ingredients mixed perfectly together Detroit reeled off 12 straight wins for the first time since the 1930s and turned from supposed pretender into top AL contender.

Setting the Rotation

During Detroit’s hot streak, a playoff rotation suddenly became clear. While many were clamoring for five straight starts from Verlander, the breakthrough of Fister helped change that opinion. Add in Max Scherzer as a number three and Detroit doesn’t have much to worry about with their rotation.

As for a fourth spot, Rick Porcello, who has been inconsistent, should only be used in situations where Detroit is nestled in to a comfortable series lead in the ALCS or World Series. To not have Verlander and Fister set up to pitch twice in a five game series would be too risky.

Would Detroit really feel more comfortable sending Porcello out for game four down 1-2 over Verlander? Or perhaps even with a 2-1 series lead, or do they risk letting the series get to 2-2, even with Verlander slated for game five? That could risk pushing him back even further into the next series, even with a win.

Cutting Back the Roster

Teams find it nice to have the luxury of an expanded roster in September. Of course, for playoff teams it helps make some of the cuts for the playoff roster even more difficult. There are a few spots up for grabs in the Detroit lineup that has strong interest to fans.

Atop the list is backup catcher. The Tigers current backup catcher, Omir Santos, makes some of the team’s weaker hitters look like Hall of Famers. If something happened to Al Avila the Tigers are probably in trouble anyway. The logical choice is allowing Brandon Inge to relive his catching glory days in an emergency situation. Inge hasn’t always been enamored with the idea, but he shouldn’t even be allowed a choice. This last week should put him behind the plate to reacquaint himself with the catching position.

By giving up Santos’s spot it opens the door to keep an extra hitter/fielding replacement or reliever on the team that could be vital.

The 25-man roster could look something like this:

Image via Wikipedia

Starting Lineup:  Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez (default starter), Delmon Young, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Al Avila, Jhonny Peralta, Wilson Betemit, Ramon Santiago

Bench: Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn, Andy Dirks, Don Kelly, Carlos Guillen

(If Guillen’s 875^th injury in the past two years is too much to overcome entering the playoffs, the Tigers could keep Omir Santos or Danny Worth in his place)

Rotation: Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello (long-reliever/emergency starter)

Bullpen: Al Alburquerque*, Duane Below, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Brad Penny, Daniel Schlereth, Jose Valverde

*Alburquerque has had multiple injury setbacks, if he is unable to participate look for Ryan Perry to take his spot.
Another interesting name fans are clamoring to be long gone is Brad Penny. With his veteran status and having started all season, don’t expect the Tigers to leave him off. But, don’t expect to see him utilized either unless the game is far out of reach.

Sizing up the Competition

Now that Detroit’s roster is set, there’s one last thing to do: chalk up the competition in the AL.

One thing is for certain, there is no team from New York, Boston, Texas or the possible latecomers in Tampa Bay without holes. Each team has holes that are leaking heavily down the stretch.

Outside of C.C. Sabathia, who hasn’t been the same in the second half of the season, whom can the Yankees trust to start? The New York offense relies heavily on power, but Detroit matches up well enough to erase the advantage of the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

Boston can’t stop their slide as their pitching completely disappeared and may be caught by Tampa Bay, who has solid starters, but is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball this season with a  .243 average.

As for Texas, they seem to be the most balanced team outside of Detroit left. Adrian Beltre has returned with a vengeance after being on the DL for close to a month to once again solidify an already dangerous lineup. Their pitching, led by C.J. Wilson is solid enough to keep them in any game and let their hitting do the rest.

Look for Detroit and Texas to meet in the ALCS with the winner setting their eyes on Philadelphia and the best pitching staff in baseball.

An unexpected addition of Delmon Young has been welcomed by Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers hitters.

After the Detroit Tigers most recent series against the Cleveland Indians ending in a sweep for Detroit, the Tigers are in complete control to win—or lose—the division.

Since the All Star Break the Tigers have made moves both on and off the field that has brought excitement, confusion, anger and every feeling in between to fans.

Quick Recap:

July 21- Trade for Wilson Betemit, sending Brandon Inge to Detroit’s AAA affiliate Toledo Mud Hens (Some fans are elated to have a 3^rd baseman who hits above .250, others heartbroken over the fan favorite, vowing one day soon Inge will return better than ever.) The Tigers also grab a .5 game lead in the AL Central, a lead they have not yet relinquished.

July 30- Tigers trade Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, Franscisco Martinez, and Chance Ruffin for Doug Fister and David Pauley. (Most are excited about the prospects of Fister’s ERA despite his abysmal record)

August 8- Mike Ilitch extends the contracts of Dave Dombrowski (4 years) and Jim Leyland (1 year). While more fans were okay with Dombrowski’s extension, many were irate about Leyland. (After five straight seasons at .500 or below after the All Star Break and Detroit fighting for the AL Central, fans wanted Leyland to prove it wouldn’t happen again.)

August 15- Detroit trades for Delmon Young to mostly positive reviews. (With Magglio Ordonez struggling for extra base hits and the ability to cover any part of the outfield many felt anybody was an upgrade.

August 19- Tigers call up Brandon Inge after a month stint in the minors that saw him hit over .300 in Toledo. (He hits a home run and doubles his first game back. Inge fans claim redemption and others bet it was an aberration.)

August 21- Detroit completes a sweep of the Indians putting their division lead at 4.5 games over Cleveland and five over the White Sox, the largest this season with 36 games remaining.

So what does Detroit have to do to hold on and clinch their first division title since 1987?

First, don’t count your chickens before they hatch. As history has proven under the Jim Leyland era in Detroit, no lead is safe. Until the magic number is zero the Tigers cannot afford to take the foot off the gas in any way.  Of Detroit’s remaining schedule, 24 games are against AL Central foes, with 12 coming against the Indians and White Sox. By facing so much of the division Detroit has the opportunity to stonewall any hot streaks by the others and firmly grip the division title.

To rack up the W’s Detroit needs focus and consistency. Starting with pitching, both starters and relievers need to step up (outside of Justin Verlander). Many believe Max Scherzer is the best compliment to Verlander. A pair of solid starts by Scherzer against Texas and Cleveland has been accompanied by mediocre efforts against lowly Kansas City and Baltimore. While he escaped Baltimore with a win, they must take full advantage of lesser competition.

In July some blamed Rick Porcello for the 100 degree Midwest heat as he scorched to a 5-0 record, but as temperatures cooled in August so did Porcello with a 9.15 ERA in 4 starts. Add in recently acquired Doug Fister still seeking his bearings in a Tigers uniform and consistency issues remain.

Even Jose Valverde, perfect and close to untouchable when a save opportunity presents itself, needs to produce in non-save situations. His over 6.50 ERA and .300+ BAA is unacceptable for a pitcher who has proven more than capable. At this point in the season he should naturally approach every situation like it’s a save because a tied extra inning appearance could be the ultimate season save.

As for hitting, the time to rest batters has expired. While Leyland loves to play matchups, his everyday lineup should reflect the one he rolled out for the game against Cleveland on August 21.

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Brennan Boesch, RF

3. Delmon Young, LF

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

5. Victor Martinez, DH

6. Alex Avila, C

7. Jhonny Peralta, SS

8. Wilson Betemit, 3B

9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

This lineup gives Detroit their best chance to win on a daily basis. Leyland can still utilize late game defensive subs and get the most of his hitters early in games.

The final ingredient is in-game coaching. As we’ve discussed here before, the Tigers make some baffling decisions when it comes to base running. Detroit cannot afford to leave runners on base when the opportunity to score appears. This doesn’t mean become overly aggressive, but take chances and play to win, don’t play not to lose.

If the Tigers control their part they will be AL Central champions for the first time in team history.

Justin Verlander image taken from Google Images via Zimbio

If you’re a Detroit Tigers fan right now you probably don’t know how to feel. On one end of the spectrum your team is actually in first place. On the other, questionable coaching and personnel moves have haunted you on a nightly basis. Most recently, Detroit decided to fire (scapegoat) Rick Knapp after an abysmal week where the pitching staff gave up over 50 runs over six games. Replacing Knapp is bullpen coach Jeff Jones, whose bullpen has ranked in the bottom five all season in ERA and WHIP.

And herein lies the problem. There aren’t many places for this Tigers team to turn. Is it a talent issue or a performance and coaching issue?

We’ll start with talent and what Dave Dombrowski has created.

For every great player on the squad there seems to be an equally awful component. Miguel Cabrera meet Ryan Raburn. Neither can play a position in the field that well, but there’s no explanation needed as to the differences each brings to a lineup on a nightly basis. This team has three starters fighting to reach or stay above the Mendoza line, but also four players above .300. You’d be hard pressed to find another team with such an odd discrepancy. On the pitching side Justin Verlander needs no introduction. But the other starters all have ERAs above 4.50. Jose Valverde has been a solid closer and the rest of the bullpen leaves you so desperate you wonder if Joel Zumaya is ever coming back.

And that leads us to Dombrowski. For every Jhonny Peralta trade, there’s a Jair Jurrjens scoffing at the notion that a team believed Edgar Renteria was a more vital component to their franchise. The Victor Martinez signing was nice, but imagine if Placido Polanco, who moved to third base without problem, would have been resigned instead of Brandon Inge. When four former Tigers (Polanco, Matt Joyce, Jurrjens, Curtis Granderson) make the All Star team and nobody they were replaced with did, it’s not hard for a fan to second-guess. His one trade this season, Scott Sizemore for David Purcey, has not been one Detroit fans can be too happy about. Sizemore is now an everyday 2^nd baseman, same position Detroit is desperate to fill, while Purcey has had no troubles adapting to a struggling bullpen.

Which leads us to Jim Leyland, his decisions and the performance of his team.

On the surface they have one of the best offenses in baseball and one of the worst pitching staffs. But, some of the issues fans have brought up more than pitching are glaring weaknesses in the offense. And the loudest screamers talk about base running.

To start, the Tigers and Jim Leyland don’t like to try stealing bases. They currently rank in the bottom five and since Leyland took over they’ve only had one season (2007) where they weren’t in the bottom 10 in total stolen bases. Their success rate has hovered around 70 percent. In ’07, they amazingly squeezed 22 stolen bases out of a quickly depreciating Gary Sheffield. Maybe the staff hasn’t taught proper base running savvy, but are Brennan Boesch and Raburn really slower than Sheffield was at 39 years old?

As for that base running savvy, third base coach Gene Lamont has taken much criticism for his extremely conservative approach. Detroit is dead last in the percentage of extra bases taken after a hit. For example, a single is hit with a runner on first and the runner is told to hold up at second instead of stretching to third. So far with the offense hitting so well it’s worked this season, but how many more victories could have been squeezed out with some riskier base running?

The other complaint is the way Leyland goes about his lineups. He has a system and he sticks with it. That means Boesch and Al Avila will not see the field every game, regardless of how well they have been playing this season. He likes to play lineups based on who is pitching and if they’re lefty or righty. He also uses a traditional bullpen approach that he doesn’t like to stray too far from regardless of how a certain guy is pitching at the time.

But even if those things might be frowned upon, they are still winning enough games to be above .500 at the All Star Break.  And this is why so many fans are confused, angry and left asking questions.

Should this team be running away with the AL Central or are they simply overachieving? Are the days of Dombrowski and Leyland ending or will they be extended after returning to the playoffs for the first time since ’06?

There’s plenty of baseball left and if you’re a Tigers fan you might want to call a psychologist because more confusion and swings of emotion are on the horizon.

Justin Verlander image taken from Google Images via Zimbio

The Detroit Tigers seem to find themselves in the same position every year. For four of the past five seasons they’ve entered June with an above .500 record and a few games up or behind in the AL Central. Halfway through the month they now find themselves tied with the Cleveland Indians in first. In the past, however, their efforts into June have been marred by late season collapses causing the team to miss the playoffs every year since their 2006 World Series run. This year might be different.

The AL Central stands as a bit of an enigma. The once scorching Cleveland Indians have crashed back to reality. The Minnesota Twins, AL central favorites entering the season, have been decimated by injuries and offer no signs of turning their season around. This leaves the White Sox (sorry Royals) as the only other possible contender. A three-way AL Central race is far from surprising, but with the Indians faltering as the third team, the division is ripe for the taking.

This Tigers team has an eclectic mix of talent on all ends of the spectrum. Their rotation is led by ace Justin Verlander who is finally realizing his full potential. Other starters like Rick Porcello and Phil Coke are holding their own, while Max Scherzer and Brad Penny have found ways to win.  On the other hand, their bullpen ranks 29^th in ERA and remains in the bottom five in WHIP. Jose Valverde remains a solid closer, but the rest of the relievers leave a lot to be desired.

Offensively, Dave Dombrowski created a daunting middle of the lineup by pairing Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera. The team ranks above average in most offensive categories led by those two. The offensive surprise, however, lies with Jhonny Peralta. His above .300 AVG stands right behind Cabrera and Martinez. Add in his 9 HRs and 34 RBIs, his power isn’t completely gone. Sophomore efforts out of Brennan Boesch, Al Avila and Austin Jackson were inconsistent early, but all three have found a groove reminiscent of their hot streaks from a year ago.

But with the good, there is bad. Magglio Ordonez is set to return from the DL, but if he can’t hit above .200, his days may be numbered. Ryan Raburn was given a “fresh start” as their everyday second baseman. The freshness needed to offset his abysmal early season hitting. And finally, recently placed on the DL Brandon Inge. Even though he flirts with the Mendoza line yearly, he’ll hit some homeruns, RBIs, and be an above average fielder. This season, he isn’t even doing that. The team can only hope his bout of mononucleosis is to blame (though 10 years of similarly poor streaks would say it isn’t).

Take all these early season performances into account and it’s no surprise the Tigers are above .500. The keys for the future remain in what they’ve done so far. Against division rivals Minnesota and Chicago, the Tigers are a combined 10-1.  Another thing to watch: interleague play. No matter what someone thinks of the concept, it’s been good for Detroit since former NL skipper Jim Leyland took over in 2006.

Most importantly, however, the team must avoid another last season collapse.  Under Leyland, there has never been a winning second half record. Even in 2009, when the team finished 38-38 in the second half, they blew a three game lead with four to go. Whether it’s an issue of depth, conditioning, or mentality the same results cannot be accepted. Leyland and Dombrowski have some holes to fill, but must make sure future roster moves can maintain over a second half that includes 46 division games.

They are not calling it a fire sale.  Let’s get that out of the way first.

The GM meetings don’t usually bring much noise, and there were no major moves made by the Tigers during this round of meetings which wrapped up last night in Chicago.  But what we learned may give us a deep insight into the immediate and long-term future of the Detroit franchise.

News first broke Tuesday that the Tigers were at least listening to, and possibly even making offers on deals that included all-star right hander Edwin Jackson.  It was also reported that catcher Gerald Laird was made available by the Tigers.  Then Wednesday, straight out of a Lynn Henning wet dream, word spread that Detroit was open to dealing to the fray, all-star Curtis Granderson.  By the end of the day, all-star third baseman Brandon Inge’s name had been added.

Is this simply a case of a GM doing his due diligence and being open to talking about deals that might improve his club, deals that would routinely be spoken about in any given off season?  Or is there something bigger here?

I’ll not get into the economic state that the Detroit area finds itself in.  We all know what’s happened with the auto industry and the sky-high unemployment rate.  We also know that the Tigers have salary commitments for 2010 that they will not be able to move.  No GM, in this economy, will be persuaded to take on the bad contracts the Tigers would like to dump.

So it would appear that Dombrowski might be open to moving some of the team’s younger players like Jackson and Granderson in an attempt to restock the thinning farm system and hopefully bring back some pieces they can add to the major league roster for 2010.

But make no mistake, the economy does play a factor here.  Would the Tigers like to deal away the names that have been mentioned? In a perfect world, the easy answer is no.  Ideally, the Tigers would build their club around players like Jackson and Granderson.  They would like to have Laird as the mentor to Alex Avila behind the plate and they would want Inge’s glove manning the hot corner.

Image via Wikipedia

Or is it simply that Detroit is exploring the possibilities of selling off on Jackson when his value is at its peak?  If all are healthy, the Tigers appear to have a surplus of potential starting pitchers, none whose trade value is as high as Jackson’s (Verlander and Porcello obviously have higher value, but they aren’t going anywhere).

If the Tigers feel they can plug a hole at shortstop (for example) by trading Jackson and still have a solid group of starting pitchers, they would be fools not to do that.  Jackson would begin next season as the number three starter in Detroit, but there are others that can conceivably fill that role.  While neither Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, nor Armando Galarraga have inspired much confidence, all will be a part of the team next year.  If someone fails, Eddie Bonine and Zach Miner can step in as well.

I think there is a strong possibility that Jackson does end up getting dealt, but I doubt that Granderson does.  Granderson had a terrible season (excluding all the home runs) last year, so trading him makes little sense, especially at a still affordable $5 million next year.  With Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen penciled in as corner outfielders, the Tigers need Granderson in center.

As far as Laird and Inge go, Laird is arbitration eligible and will get a good-sized raise from his $2.7 million salary of a season ago.  Detroit may and should feel like there are cheaper options to nurture Avila along while splitting duties behind the plate.  Inexpensive backup-type catchers are seemingly always available, so there should be plenty of options in replacing Laird on the team, with minimal impact on the outcome of games.  For all that Laird brought to the 2009 Tigers defensively, the guy simply struggles with the bat.  Those catchers don’t cost $3.5 million per year.

Inge is entering the final year of his contract that pays him $6.3 million next season.  His first half of 2009 was amazing, but once he injured his knees, his offense fell off the map.  A healthy Inge is essential to this team, especially with the glove, but he has never been a strong hitter.  Trading Inge would free up some payroll that could be allocated to re-signing a Brandon Lyon or a Fernando Rodney, but it would also leave a gaping hole at third base.  If the Tigers could find a suitable replacement (and I don’t think that player is currently in the organization), it may be wise to make such a move.

(major hat tip, as always, to MLB Trade Rumors)

Editor’s note: This will be John’s last post here at Baseball Reflections & I personally wanted to tank him for his work and support over these months!

Detroit 5, Minnesota 6

Final Record 86-77 (second place)

Devastation.  That’s what I felt Tuesday night as the Twins celebrated following their 12th inning walk off, that’s what I’m feeling Wednesday morning as I write this.

The back and forth nature of this game made it a classic.  The stakes made it one of the greatest in recent memory.  As a Tiger fan, I think it may be easy to get so wrapped up in the disappointment of losing and miss that this was one of the great games in the last several years.

The long and short is that the Twins won the game on a walk-off single by Alexi Casilla, a player whose game last night and season this year might personify the Twins better than any other.  Casilla began the year as the starting second baseman in Minnesota.  He struggled and was sent to the minor leagues.  When he got back, Nick Punto had taken his job.  Now he is the Twins’ biggest hero.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

There is plenty of second guessing to be done now that the results are in.  Why was Fernando Rodney left out there for his fourth inning of work?  Why did Jim Leyland send Zach Miner back to the mound in the seventh after he had struggled in the sixth?  Why would you walk Delmon Young to get to Casilla when he was 3/5 in his career versus Rodney?

The answers no longer matter, there was no game for the Tigers on Wednesday or for the rest of the 2009 season.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Critics will call this Tigers team chokers.  They will note that Detroit is the first team to miss the playoffs after holding a three game lead with four to play.  What they forget is that the Twins won 17 of the last 21 games to pass them.  Let it be noted that three of those four losses came versus the Tigers.  Minnesota just stopped losing to anyone else.  A team that had played under .500 all year took off when two of their best hitters were lost for the season.  The Twins were a freight train.  There was no stopping them.

Cheers for

• Magglio Ordonez- Maggs got the scoring started with a run scoring single, then tied the game with a solo home run when hope appeared lost in the eighth.  It was the second straight game in which Magglio homered.  He had an amazing second half.

• Miguel Cabrera- for all he put himself through over the weekend, Cabrera delivered a double and a two-run homer in his first two at bats.  As Chip Caray noted, “Redemption, thy name is Cabrera.”

• Fernando Rodney- The numbers will show that Rodney allowed the tying run in the 10th and then the winning run in the 12th, but Rodney pitched his heart out and had to work around a misplayed triple that put the tying run on base in that 10th inning.  I don’t know, but I would guess he went up by at least five points in Leyland’s book.  Too soon?

• Rick Porcello- It feels like months ago that Porcello started this game.  He tied his career high with eight strike outs and pitched very well, all things considered.  It’s going to be fun watching him pitch in Detroit for years to come.

• The Minnesota Twins- They just stopped losing.  I would hope that this incredible run is remembered by history far more than the Tigers’ losses.  Detroit did not go 2-13 down the stretch or anything like that, Minnesota just caught fire and there was nothing that could stop them.  Congratulations to the Division Champs.  Now go kick the hell out of the Yankees.

Jeers to

• Zach Miner- Miner came up small in the biggest spot of the year, unable to keep Orlando Cabrera in the ballpark and turning a one run lead into a deficit.  He can be an effective pitcher, but he thinks he’s a starter.  Trade him to someone else that agrees.

• Ryan Raburn- Raburn helped the cause with two hits and he gunned down the winning run at the plate, but his defense cuts the other way, too.  Raburn leapt into (and not over) the wall on the Cabrera homer that gave Minnesota the lead, a more experienced outfielder would know to give himself more room to jump.  He also played Micheal Cuddyer’s single into a triple to lead off the 10th with a one run lead.  You absolutely have got to keep that ball in front of you, he did not.

What’s on tap

Sadly, nothing.  The Tigers end the season in second place after leading the division for 163 straight days.  There is a long, cold winter ahead.  Brandon Inge faces knee surgery, several players will be moving on to new clubs, and several new faces will take their place.

I’ll have a season recap coming soon.  In the meantime, watch the playoffs and hope that this club can play meaningful games next October as well.  That’s really all you can ask for.