With two Silver Sluggers and an Most Valuable Player award, the Texas Rangers’ Josh Hamilton has always been one of baseball’s elite, but his on-field injuries and off-the-field substances have limited his potential throughout his career.

However, you’ve probably heard that 2012 is a completely different story. Through his first 30 games, the Rangers’ outfielder has amassed a whopping 18 home runs and 41 runs batted in, with an eye-popping .402/.457/.873 slash line.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock recently, you probably also heard about Hamilton’s power surge last Tuesday night, when he teed off on the Baltimore Orioles for four home runs, eight RBIs, and 18 total bases at Camden Yards. With only 16 four-HR games in Major League Baseball history, the feat ranks among perfect games (21) and unassisted triple plays (15) as one of the most rare achievements in baseball. With that being said, how much luck was involved in Hamilton’s epic night?

Let’s break down each of his long balls:

Home Run No. 1: Hamilton started his off the fireworks with a bomb off of Orioles’ starter Jake Arrieta in the top of the first. The 79-mph curveball stayed up over the leftmost third of the plate, a meatball for the left-handed Hamilton considering it was thrown by a right-hander. The baseball traveled a mere 404 feet, barely escaping the center-field wall and Andruw Jones’ outstretched glove. Move the walls back a yard, and Jones could have hauled it in. According to ESPN’s online Home Run Tracker, this tater had “just enough” to escape Camden Yards, but would not have left any other ballpark under standard weather conditions. However, MLB Advanced Media recorded a 6-mph breeze blowing to straightaway center field at first pitch, which gave the ball some extra lift over the fence. Conclusion: Lucky

Home Run  No. 2: Hamilton’s second dinger also came off of Arrieta in the third inning, but unlike the first, there was no question about this one. The right-hander’s 93-mph sinker wound up in nearly the same location as his first offering, but Hamilton redirected the faster pitch 387 feet into the left-center bleachers. Clearing the fence by a whopping 23 feet, ESPN’s database claims that it would have left 26 of the 30 stadiums in the Majors. In other words, only the offense-killing confines of Petco and Marlins Park might have kept this one in the yard. Conclusion: Legit

Home Run No. 3: After doubling off the wall in right-center field, Hamilton slammed another home run to left-center field. Again, the offering (a 78-mph slider from left-handed rookie Zach Phillips) was on the outer third of the plate, but hung up in the zone, easy pickings for a red-hot Hamilton. Number 3 ended up in nearly the same spot as Number 1, landing 406 feet from home plate. With the wind continuing to blow toward center field, Jones jumped but had no hope of snagging it. ESPN estimates that the breeze added six feet to this shot, turning an easy can-of-corn into Hamilton’s third dinger of the night. Conclusion: Lucky

Home Run No 4: Ex-Texas Ranger reliever Darren O’Day was Hamilton’s final victim. For a fourth time, the pitch (another slider clocking in at only 83 mph) landed in Hamilton’s wheelhouse, giving him another opportunity to show what he can do with off-speed pitches landing on the outer third of the plate. Number 4 traveled 425 feet to left-center, so far from numbers 1 and 3 that Jones could only give a half-hearted jog across Camden’s outfield. The wind actually knocked a foot off this long ball’s distance, but this one would’ve left 87 percent of Major League Baseball parks anyway (ESPN). Kudos to Orioles’ manager Buck Showalter for not ordering an intentional walk, but at this point, Hamilton was so locked in that he could have hit one out even if it was two feet off the plate. Conclusion: Legit

With four juicy outside pitches and a strong wind to work with, Hamilton clearly caught some breaks last Tuesday night. Achieving this feat during a night game probably made things a bit easier. Hamilton is historically a poorer hitter during day games, batting .260 versus .332 during night contests from 2009-2011. But does a .402 hitter really care what time he takes his hacks? It’s interesting to consider the factors behind his epic performance, but it can’t take away from Hamilton’s ability with the bat.

His otherworldly start makes for a more enthralling off-season, when he will be the top free agent on the market.

Adrian Gonzalez photo taken from Zimbio via Google Images

A midst the massive failure that is the Boston Red Sox from the Fall of 2011 and though this point in the 2012 season, there have been a lot of fingers pointed and opinions formed. One point I heard being discussed on a Boston sports talk radio show over the weekend was asking why Adrian Gonzalez hasn’t hit for power since he dawned a Boston Red Sox jersey. All the talk was that with the new ballpark, that Gonzalez would be a lock for 40 home runs annually, since Petco Park had hampered his power production for his career thus far. We even saw pretty charts by ESPN measuring ballpark factors on some of A-Gon’s long fly balls in Petco being blasts in Fenway.

Theo Epstein essentially emptied out, for what it was at the time, the Sox farm to acquire Gonzalez on the condition that they could get an extension with him. And that’s certainly what they got when they inked a 7-year, $154MM extension to be the cornerstone of the Boston offense at 1B. All while knowing full well that Gonzalez had an issue with his right shoulder, his lead shoulder. The surgery was successful and Gonzalez went to put up a sparkling .338 batting average in 159 games. He even hit 27 home runs over the course of the season. Of course he faltered down the stretch during the Red Sox playoff run, but then again, who didn’t? Not to mention all the greef he has taken from fans and some media about his inability to come through “in the clutch”, which is an entirely different matter in itself (Mind you I don’t believe in “clutch” in baseball over a big enough sample size).

Now after reading a post by Fangraph’s Mike Axisa regarding Gonzalez’s power outage, which is quite clearly a real thing with the sample being almost an entire seasons worth of plate appearances (590), I’m starting to wonder if Gonzalez’s power is ever going to come back. With all of the statistical data backing up the fact that there’s an alarming drop off, there’s also hitting mechanics considerations to ponder.

First being Gonzalez’s approach, for which he is most known for. He has always been a guy known for his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. Take into consideration that as a hitter you need to let the ball travel deep into the zone for this to be effective without getting out on your front side. Gonzalez was always able to do this prior to the injury with power because he let the ball travel deep and made up for it with his quick hands. He still has those quick hands and will likely hit for average as he always has, but with a front shoulder issue I don’t see him being able to take advantage of the Green Monster since your transfer power will be limited if you have a shoulder issue.

Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife

Secondly, and most importantly is how the shoulder problem actually comes into developing home run power. With Gonzalez having the issue in his right shoulder, the lead shoulder for a left handed batter, it’s cutting off his ability to finish strongly through his swings. That small extra bit of effort in the follow through, after you’ve already made contact with the ball is what gets balls over the fence or caught on the warning track for an out or as a double. He’s already creating torque in his core and through his legs, but his finish is quite clearly not driving the ball for home run power.

The shoulder surgery may have prevented further damage to the area, but it’s pretty unlikely that his power will return to where it was in 2010 before the injury and before the mega deal that Red Sox ownership committed to. He averaged 1 home run for every 26.48 plate appearances in 2011, and although a small sample size, Gonzalez has hit only 2 home runs in 143 plate appearances, an average of 71.5 plate appearances per home run thus far in 2012. Given the quality of hitters at the first base position, this will leave the Red Sox paying a lot of money for an average level of production.

I didn’t bother writing a March reflection for the Orioles.  I didn’t have much hope for the upcoming season, or for the roster assembled by new GM Dan Duquette.  To make matters worse Zach Britton, the top returning starter from last year, was sidelined in the Spring with a shoulder injury.  I simply couldn’t see through all the team’s shortcomings to muster up any sort of positive thoughts.  A 14-9 April record had a remarkable effect on my disposition.

The Orioles‘ April success was powered by some terrific performances from unfamiliar faces.  Jason Hammel, acquired from the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie, has been a rock solid addition to Baltimore’s rotation.  Hammel struggled in Colorado and was removed from the Rockies’ rotation at one point last summer.  I gave him a vote of complete no confidence coming into the season.  Hammel is currently 3-1 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts for the Orioles.  I can’t imagine he’ll keep pitching at his current pace but you won’t hear me complaining if he does.

Wei-Yin Chen, imported from Japan during the offseason, has also been terrific.  Chen is 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts for the O’s.  Chen didn’t come with the fanfare or price tag of Yu Darvish, and rightfully so, but he has made a huge impact for the Orioles.  The 26 year old lefty looks like he may be a solid middle of the rotation starter.

The Orioles have also benefited from some terrific outings from two pitchers who struggled last season, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz.  Arrieta earned the Opening Day start and has pitched well following August surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow.  Matusz was beyond awful in 2011.  He didn’t look very good in his early outings this season either, but he rebounded to turn in two straight quality starts against the Blue Jays and Yankees.  Orioles fans should keep their fingers crossed in hopes that the Matusz of 2010 has returned.

Mark Reynolds and JJ Hardy are off to slow starts with the bat.  The pair led the Orioles in home runs last season but others have picked up the slack.  Catcher Matt Wieters is morphing into a outright star.  Now in his third full big league season Wieters leads all catchers in home runs and has become a force in the middle of the Baltimore lineup.  Center fielder Adam Jones also had a terrific April.  Jones has settled nicely into the cleanup spot and is stating his case for a long term deal with the Orioles.  Jones will be a free agent following the 2013 season.  The Orioles may regret not getting the former All Star and Gold Glove winner locked up sooner.

The Orioles’ offense has also received a power injection from Chris Davis.  The 26 year old was acquired from the Rangers last summer along with Tommy Hunter in return for Koji Uehara.  Davis has already hit five home runs this season after hitting just two home runs in 31 games with the O’s in 2011.  Could Davis be the Orioles’ long sought after solution at first base?

I’m not ready to start ordering playoff tickets, or even season tickets, but the Orioles have certainly been entertaining and competitive in the early going.  As a fan who has suffered through 14 years of losing, entertaining and competitive is about all I can hope for these days.  I’m taking it one day at a time and hoping that the O’s can carry their April success into May.

Daniel Bahhhd throws wicked hahhhd.. deep into games!(Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Lets forget about the disastrous start by the Boston Red Sox for a moment, shall we? .. Well, never mind, but lets try for the sake of making a sound baseball decision for just this article. Lets face it, Sweet Caroline isn’t going to get the Red Sox out of this slide to start the 2012 season, and neither is Mark Melancon who I wrote about in my last piece where I predicted that his epic disaster of an introduction to the American League East isn’t a fluke. What I would like to discuss today was an interesting, and often talked about dilemma in Boston regarding their young right handed pitcher, Daniel Bard. Should he be a starter? Should he be in their bullpen? Should Alfredo Aceves be their closer? Should Aceves be in the rotation? Not sure yourself? Well, I think Bard should be in the rotation over Aceves and I don’t think it’s really all that close.

Often times reading local columnists and listening to local sports talk radio media people makes my eyes and/or ears want to bleed. Bottom line is that most people just simply do not understand the game from a front office perspective. Why? Because they look at players as people, playing on a team, trying to win a championship as hard as they can. Unfortunately, that’s your first mistake. To a GM (in my opinion),  you’re successful if you run your organization as closely to your stock portfolio on Wall Street. “What do you mean, Bill? These are real people!” Agreed, but looking at individual instances in a small world perspective will deplete your teams resources and not allow the franchise and more importantly, ownership to profit over a long-term. If you’re a GM your only job isn’t to just field a team, you do have to answer to ownership and work with them on a business model. I know, shockingly so, people actually profit from this game other than the players on the field. Look no further than Boston if you want the true sense of “head in the sand” defined for you.

With that said, the players also have an obligation to maximize their potential earnings over their career. They will meet with their agent and discuss a strategy. They will work with the team to express their desire to follow this plan. Sometimes it doesn’t work out and the player will leave for free agency at the first opportunity. Look no further than Jonathan Papelbon. What I’m trying to elude at is that both the front office and the player are trying to maximize value just as any business partnership would. What does this have to do with Daniel Bard? We’re just tipping the iceberg!

I remember scouting Bard at UNC when he was part of the two-headed monster alongside Andrew Miller. You had two absolutely dominant pitchers flashing plus stuff and velocity deep into games. Of course, Miller received most of the attention because he was left-handed and was taken in the first round, 6th overall by Detroit. However even back in 2006 there were a lot of scouts saying that Bard had the better MLB future due to his cleaner mechanics and bigger frame. Miller had the put away slider already in college, where as Bard was more of a ‘project’. Although Miller was certainly impressive at UNC, if it were me picking back then I would have taken Bard if I had to choose between the two, regardless of current results. The amazing thing to consider is that Miller was taken ahead of guys like Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs, Tim Lincecum, Kyle Drabek and Ian Kennedy. All things considered, if you had tossed up all the first round picks in 2006 in a hat and played a modified version of credit card roulette you would have been more likely to nab an ace than Detroit was with Miller.

Then there are the powerhouse Red Sox lying in wait with their compensatory pick they received by letting Johnny Damon sign with the Yankees. Of course this is while the MLB draft was essentially rigged still, and players and their agents could essentially bully small to mid-market teams into not taking them for fear they wouldn’t sign. So here comes Daniel Bard falling into the Red Sox lap at pick #28, an absolute steal for a guy who I saw tossing 98-MPH almost 140 pitches deep in the 9th inning at UNC.

Back then Bard’s slider wasn’t what it is now. Now his slider is a true put-away pitch that has separation in velocity from his fastball and enough tilt to get both right and left hand batters out. His change is a work in progress, as it is for most starters who throw in the mid 90′s. However he’s been working on creating more separation between it and his fastball, which has let him develop the pitch into an average or slightly below average offering. He’ll need to develop the pitch a bit further in order to balance out his splits vs. lefty’s, but he’s showing the ability to do so on the fly. Bard’s mechanics have always been smooth and he’s a sure bet to stay healthy. The only question I have is not his control, but his command within the strike zone. Unfortunately for Bard he pitches in the AL East, where there are no room for mistakes. He is working on this, and as we saw with his start in Toronto last week, he has the ability to put away opposing hitters by blowing it by guys when he’s behind in the count, something Aceves, and a lot of less talented pitchers are unable to do.

Point being, Bard is best off personally in the rotation for his future career, but more importantly for the Red Sox both now and in the future. Alfredo Aceves has a career xFIP of 5.58 as a starter, 4.32 as a reliever. That’s a massive difference for a guy who’s done developing. Aceves is what he is and he can be effective if used properly where he’s not exposed to a lineup more than one run through. In Bard, the Red Sox have a potential ace. He has all the parts that both scouts and GM’s look for in a dominant starter and he should be treated as such. If you want a very comparable situation look south to Tampa and how the Rays treated Matt Moore. Moore wasn’t always the prospect he is now, but they saw just what I do in Bard and stuck with him through his struggles even though they already have a ton of pitching because it was the smart baseball decision. Just as any executive on Wall Street would do, you look to maximize your potential earnings on an investment, and having Bard in the rotation does exactly that. You want guys like him with his stuff and attributes pitching as much as possible because that creates more value and ROI. The Red Sox and their fans should realize this and enjoy watching Bard pitch for them as long as they can.

I can’t believe I am saying this, but have patience Red Sox fans! Let Bard develop into a top flight starter. Your bullpen won’t be as good, but your team will be in the present and future. You won’t regret it.

(Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

During the 2011-’12 offseason the Red Sox and Astro‘s made a trade that brought the Red Sox their next set-up man, and the Astro’s an injury plagued, yet talented middle infielder who was looking for an opportunity in Jed Lowrie. There wasn’t a ton of reaction to this trade, but it’s proving rather significant through only 4 games in the 2012 season. More so for the Red Sox, as Melancon has stumbled out of the gate vs. the Detroit Tiger potent lineup.

Melancon is a big tall right hander with four pitches. A rather straight fastball that lives 91-94, touching 96 occasionally. He packages that with an out-pitch curve that’s devastating to right handed batters when he’s commanding the pitch. Melancon also shows a cutter and a change to keep hitters off balance, but mostly relies on his fastball/curveball combo. His delivery is pretty smooth and he gets good power from his legs, however his arm motion allows the hitter to see the ball pretty early so if he doesn’t have his best stuff (and even sometimes when he does) he’s going to get hit. Although just a small sample size, he’s looked pretty terrible with the Red Sox, which would make most alarmed. However I’m not sure it’s going to end or get much better moving forward because not only is the quality of hitting drastically better in the AL East compared to what Melancon faced last year, it’s also stacked with power hitting, patient left handers. Melancon’s splits in 2011 were ugly vs. LH batters, as you can see below.

It’s not out of the ordinary for a Big League team to face college competition at some point during Spring Training. It’s a tradition that several clubs have honored for years as both a showcase for fans and a special treat for the college kids. It is out of the ordinary, however, for a Big League team to lose to college competition. Enter the Baltimore Orioles.

The O’s lost 2-1 in a charity game against State College of Florida on Tuesday and, just as you’d expect, a media frenzy ensued, resulting in two very different spins on the game. First came the more obvious take: your classic doomsday predictions of an 0-162 season. The O’s couldn’t beat Little Leaguers, never mind a college team! Or my favorite: Playing the Orioles will kill SCF’s RPI! There were also plenty who chose to downplay the significance of the event. After all, it was a charity game, and the bulk of the Baltimore starting lineup was out of the game by the 5th inning. Who cares? They probably just wanted to get their work in and get out of there.

It’s a classic “story vs. non-story” debate, and having heard both spins, I was prepared to form my opinion on the matter. But then another factor was thrown into the mix that changed everything: since SCF is already into their season and wanted to save some pitching, there were a few innings that featured Orioles pitchers and catchers playing for the college team. And just like that, what had become such a hot and lively debate got flipped on its head. In my mind, the Oriole vs. Oriole matchups negate the entire story – case dismissed.

But just for fun, let’s say the teams played straight up. Now is it a story?

At this point in the Spring? Absolutely. I’ve played the game, I know the difference in competition, and while baseball is the only sport that offers a college team a realistic chance to beat a professional team, I believe the Major League club should win this game 99 times out of 100. The only exception would be a lights out pitching performance by the college squad’s ace (sometimes you just can’t beat good pitching). But that’d only be if the game actually meant something and the college team was pitching their stud, playing to win. In today’s world of Spring Training exhibition games, the MLB club should win every time.

I understand both sides of the argument, but at the end of the day, it’s Big League talent vs. college talent. Sure it’s Spring Training, but if you think the professionals aren’t trying during their at-bats you’re out of your mind. You think they want to strike out against some snot-nosed college kid? While it may not be the end of the world, losing to a college team is flat out embarrassing.

When I was in college my team played against a Big League squad every year, and while we managed to give them a good game once or twice, no one, ourselves included, expected us to win. Even though our dugout was full of energy and we played harder than our professional opponents, we were in college. We weren’t used to wood bats, we weren’t going to waste our best arms on an exhibition game, and only a small fraction of us would evolve into minor league ballplayers, let alone Big Leaguers.

If a MLB team lost to a minor league team - or a Division 1 college club lost to a D3 opponent, for that matter – I wouldn’t bat an eye. It’s baseball, anything can happen. But just as college should never lose to high school, professional should never lose to college. The talent gap is too great and the games are too long. Even if you want to argue that it’s mostly minor leaguers who play in those exhibition games, those are the absolute best minor leaguers – it’s not exactly an open invitation to Big League camp.

So had SCF beaten the Orioles straight up, I’d find it hard not to call it a story. It doesn’t label every future O’s win a miracle, but it’s a story. Any time a massive underdog overcomes great odds I believe appropriate kudos are deserved. But in this particular case, the details negate any significance - the unlikely victory is tainted by SCF’s borrowing of Baltimore pitchers and catchers. Well played, Buck.

Regardless of the details, congrats to State College of Florida on the win. As for the O’s – I’ve dismissed this game on a technicality but something tells me they’re in for another long summer in Baltimore. They do have those cool new hats, though. Baby steps.

SMALLS TALK Series
Terry Francona on Baseball Tonight
The Curtain Call
Coolest park to hit a home run?
Top 5 Questions Heading into the 2012 Season
Would you want Manny on your team?
College Baseball’s Opening Day
On-Field Composure
When did “Can I have your autograph” turn into “Give me a ball”?
Baseball Needs a 24/7 Show
Top 10 Things to Do in the Dugout During a Day Off
The Spit Hit
Being Friends with Pitchers
The Yankee Core
Opening Day
You Play Right Field?
It’s Not Always Sunny in Arizona
Tee Work
Helmet for Pitchers?
Approaching Spring Training
Top 5 Things I Won’t Miss About My Local Gym
Getting New Equipment
Last Day at Work
My Bat of Choice
The Superstitions and Quirks of a Ballplayer
The Art of the Autograph
Greensboro’s ‘Bat Dogs’
Tim Kurkjian is a Man Among Boys
Baseball Movie All-Star Game: Starting Lineups
Walk-Out Music
Pre-Draft Medical Questionnaires
The Ryan Howard Namesake
The Magic of the Rally
Jeter and A-Rod, How Times Have Changed
Summer Leagues – Cape Still Cream of the Crop?
SportsCenter Commercials are Better Than Most Shows
Schilling’s Bloody Sock
Red Sox Nation Goes Crazy, JD Drew Can’t Be Bothered
Minor League Hats are the Way to Go
Who Has the Best Uniforms in College Baseball?

Athletes that compete in fast paced, explosive sports like football and basketball tend to turn to golf as a change of pace. They like the fact that they can still take part in a competitive game, but it’s completely different from the contact sports they play (you can’t tell me basketball isn’t a contact sport).

Golf enthusiasts like Michael Jordan, Ray Allen and Marshall Faulk are just a handful of athletes who take their golf games pretty seriously. Charles Barkley? Not so much, but claims he’s improved. They all look forward to putting down the duffle bag with the basketball sneakers for a bit and picking up the golf bags and clubs.

One sport I didn’t really expect to have too many athletes crossing over onto the links from was baseball. I say that because baseball games can run longer than four hours and they are generally much slower paced than most other sports. Baseball and golf are somewhat similar in a lot of aspects but still, a lot of pro baseball players enjoying playing golf.

After putting more thought into it I realized skills from the golf course can translate into success on the baseball field and vice versa.

Flexibility

Golfers who have a textbook swing have great rotation in their hips that turn into rotational power allowing them to drive the ball farther. In baseball, players who have great swings get a good turn in their hips to help drive the ball for opposite field hits or home runs. Turning your hips may sound simple enough but the legs and arms are involved in the process too and everything happens in one fluid motion as your attention is focused on striking the ball with power. It’s not as easy as it sounds.

Core

A lot more pro golfers and major league baseball players are focusing on their cores through workouts dedicated solely to strengthening that area of the body. A strong core is a big part of rotational power. It helps improve an athlete’s stamina and range of motion. It also helps strengthen the legs and upper body because it’s located in the center (hence the name, core). Years ago, there were a lot of chubby golfers and baseball players. These days more players have adopted workouts from their fellow pro athletes in other sports, like football and basketball, to push their bodies to the limit and to ultimately take their games to the next level.

Home Runs to Holes in One

Yankee first basemen, Mark Teixeria is one All-Star baseball player that enjoys spending some of his down time on the links.  His favorite course to play on is the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta, and he says the best part of his game is his ability to drive the ball with accuracy. If you have seen him play on the baseball field there’s a good chance you would say one of his skills is driving the ball for base hits and home runs. He doesn’t make many errors either, so the accuracy comes into play.

It may be interesting to see if there are any pro golfers on the PGA tour who believe they would be able to crossover and have success in MLB.

Photo taken from Zimbio via Google Images

New Red Sox skipper Bobby Valentine has gone on the record as saying that adding a starting pitcher isn’t at the top of his priority list.  He thinks they have plenty of arms in the mix when they get to Ft. Myers in three weeks, so for right now, it’s not at the top of his wish list.

Um, excuse me, Mr. Valentine, but if not now, when?

While everyone is focusing on the team’s epic September collapse, let’s not also forget the team’s dreadful start to 2011: 2-11.  It started with an opening-series sweep at the hands of the Rangers.  Fine, I’ll grant you, they were the defending AL champions and just happened to be on their way to heading right back to the World Series.  I get it, one of the best teams in the league knocked ‘em around a little.  But then you get to Cleveland and get swept?  Come on.

The Red Sox scored a total of 11 runs in those first six games while their opponents took extra BP and scored 38.  That kicked off a month that ended in an 11-15 record.  Clearly the traditional cliché of a marathon versus a sprint applies, as anyone who watched game 162 with baited breath will tell you.  It simply cannot be understated how important it will be for this 2012 team to get off to a good start.

Which brings us back to the issue of the starting pitching staff.  This year’s team features not a single pitcher who reached the 200-inning plateau in 2011.   While Josh Beckett and Jon Lester each had fine seasons (September struggles not withstanding), neither of them reached that critical marker.  Add to that the losses of John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka to Tommy John surgery.  Then add to that the Clay Buchholz injury watch.  Then add to that the unknown of Daniel Bard pitching as a starter instead of as a lights-out setup man.  Do you see where this is going?

The Red Sox finished with 90 wins last year, a number that for all intents and purposes should have assured them a playoff spot (stay tuned for the introduction of the second wild card this year).  The problem is all intents and purposes get checked at the door to the AL East.

Image via Wikipedia

The Yankees mixed and matched all season until they found a mix that clinched the division.  Then in the offseason they’ve added an underrated workhorse in Hiroki Kuroda, wresting him away from possibly playing in Boston, and traded for an act on the rise in Michael Pineda.

The Rays, who did what the Red Sox couldn’t on September 28^th last year to claim the Wild Card, have arguably the best pitching staff in the American League in David Price, James Shields, rookie phenom Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Wade Davis.  They didn’t stand pat either, bringing in a couple lefty bats in Carlos Pena and Luke Scott, both with plenty of experience in the AL East, to help back that staff.

So now the ball is in the Red Sox’ court.  They had a shot to get Kuroda and missed.  Now they’re in supposed conversations with Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson.  One guy gets hurt (meaning he makes your bad back look like a stubbed toe), the other guy has played for six teams in eight years.  They simply don’t know what to expect from three-fifths of their rotation, whether it’s injury concerns or simply not knowing who will take the ball the next day.  They’re taking it down to the likes of Carlos Silva, Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Felix Doubront, Justin Germano, Clayton Mortenson, and last year’s pitching hero, Alfredo Aceves.  Leaves you feeling all warm and tingly inside, doesn’t it?

So it’s time to ask again: if not now, then when?

Introduction

This article is a follow up to the one published here on Monday, December 12th. In this article I will delve in more detail into the Red Sox current Pitching situation. Here we will break things down by talking about the current list of injured pitchers and the effect that has on the team, the 2011 pitchers that are currently free agents, the rotation, the bullpen, pitchers that were not on the Red Sox in 2011 that are now free agents & pitchers that might be available via trade.

The Injuries

Almost like a team plague, Tommy John Surgery seems to have hit the Red Sox like a virus over the past two years. First, I believe, there was Junici Tazawa who had returned late last season from his surgery & since his there have been three more players that have succumbed to it…

SP Rich Hill – Recovering from Tommy John surgery (on June 9th) and was recently non-tendered. His recovery will probably result in him being out until after the start of 2012, but with Boston having so many lefties under team control (Morales, Doubront and Miller) without the ability (options) to sent them to Pawtucket (AAA), they had to release him. Although, if one of those guys were involved in a possible trade, that would open the door up to the Red Sox re-signing him. I personally think he’s be a better option for them than two of them if not all three.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka - will miss at least half of the 2012 season due to recovery from his Tommy John surgery. It is hoped that his return will be the equivalent of a trade deadline acquisition as he might be back sometime after the All Star game. Although, given the tendency of pitchers returning from this procedure having control problems coupled with Dice-K’s insistence on nibbling around the plate sounds like a recipe for some scary innings of work (hopefully the Red Sox can keep him in AAA Pawtucket during that awkward time is his rehab). I don’t see him being a reliable option at the major league level until the All Star break at the earliest.

Picture of John Lackey taken by Tony Molica

SP John Lackey - He is the last pitcher to succumb to this injury as of late and because he didn’t address this injury until after the 2011 season, he will miss all of 2012. On the bright side, it looks like the injury that made this procedure a necessity was directly related to Lackey’s poor 2011 performance (it seems as if he may have pitched with this injury most of the season knowing that he couldn’t hurt himself further), one that was the worst by any Red Sox starting pitcher in the team’s storied history for a full season.  Some have also reported that he stayed off the DL for the team’s sake given the state of the staff and took one for the team so to speak. So, maybe he will look more like the pitcher we saw with the Angels in 2013!

Former Red Sox Pitchers that are now Free Agents
RP Trever Miller (age: 38) - Miller only pitched in 2 innings for the Red Sox (in 3 outings) while recording 1K without giving up a hit, a walk or a run. In all of 2011 between the Blue Jays, Cardinals and the Red Sox he only pitched in 21.1 innings over 48 outings and had an 0-1 record with 1 SV 3 blown saves and 5 holds, while maintaining a 3.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

RP Dan Wheeler (age: 34) - Wheeler is a Type B free agent. He declined the Red Sox offer of arbitration. He was on and off the DL during the 2011 season posting a line of 2-2 with 4 Holds, 0 blown saves, 39 K, 1.11 WHIP, 4.38 ERA in 49.1 IP. For his career he boasts a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 43 saves, a 25-43 record with 553K in 628.1 IP.

SP Tim Wakefield (age: 45) - With Wakefield’s reoccurring back problems over the past few years and his painful-to-watch attempt to get his 200th victory last year, it is probably only a 50/50 chance at best that the Red Sox re-sign him for the 2012 season. And the latest news is that Theo (I mean Jed Hoyer) may seek to sign Wakefield (and possibly even Varitek) with the Cubs. 2011 saw Wakefield go 7-8 with 93Ks, a 1.36 WHIP, .267 BAA and a 5.12 ERA in 154.2 innings pitched with 1 CG in only 23 starts (10 relief appearances) while giving up a whopping 25 HRs. In contrast to those numbers, he has a career average of a 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (so that didn’t change) with 2156 Ks in 3226.2 innings pitched over 463 starts (164 relief appearances) with 33 CGs with 6 of those being shutouts. Bottom line: I’d bring him back even if it was just for insurance. He’s a great team player, can both start and pitch in the bullpen and can eat up innings. On top of all of that, when he gets going (if), he can string together a bunch of consecutive wins (if you have a catcher that can catch him and not many can).

The Rotation

Jon Lester - In my opinion Lester is the Ace of this staff! He has won 15 or more games in his last four seasons (19 in 2010) and 2012 should see him pitch in over 200 innings once again (he had only 191.2 IP last year, the first time under 200 in those same four seasons) and be in contention for the Cy Young Award once again with  also hitting the 200K mark again.

Josh Beckett - If Beckett has post another sub 3.00 ERA he might be in line to go head to head with Lester for that Cy Young Award, but he will more likely have an ERA under 4.00 and 190 or more Ks. Last year, for at least half of the season, he proved that he can still be a co-Ace on this staff and Bobby V might be the type of manager that can motivate him to do so once again, but his best years are behind him at this point, I’m affraid.

Clay Buchholz - I see Clay as being, realistically speaking, a solid number two pitcher on this staff with a performance that is in between his 2010 (.708 winning percentage) and 2011 (.667 winning percentage) seasons if he can stay healthy.

Daniel Bard – At first, I wasn’t sure how to take the news of Bard joining the rotation, but with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey I have to agree with it. I think Bard, if the opinion of Curt Young (Red Sox 2011 Pitching Coach) is accurate, is well suited to transfer into the rotation like the Rangers have done recently with CJ Wilson, Alexi Ogando, etc. Young mentions the addition of a newly mastered changeup to go with his fastball and slider as reasons that back a move to the rotation. I think he’ll do just fine and might end up in the pen three quarters of the way into the season due to the added workload after being a short reliever up until now.

Picture of Alfredo Aceves taken by Tony Molica

Alfredo Aceves - If no one besides one of the slew of low risk starters the Sox have signed to this point pans out, Alfredo should be the fifth starter (or at least the first guy out of the pen to spot start). His 2011 performance when called upon has earned him that right.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL: Tommy John Surgery) - Dice-K might just be the equivalent to a mid season aquisition when he returns from Tommy John surgery. With Bobby V at the helm, it just might be what the doctor ordered for Dice-K in his final months as a member of the Red Sox due to Bobby’s time spent managing in Japan. I expect the best performance we’ve seen up to this point upon his return if he is healthy enough post-surgery to accomplish it.

The Bullpen

Bobby Jenks - In December, Jenks has lower back surgery to remove bone fragments and less than a month later has had a second operation on his back and will probably miss the start of spring training. If he can stay healthy he would be a valuable 7th or 8th inning option along with Malanson; otherwise, he’s sure to be DFA’d or traded during the season.

Scott Atchison - Atchison has his best numbers in the following categories in 2011: ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.20), but his SO/9 were at a career low at 5.0. He also had very good command as seen with a BB/9 rate of 1.8 and he did not give up even one HR. I’d keep him, but would monitor his SO/9 and H/9 rates to see if they loose any more ground. If they do, I’d expect that to affect his ERA and WHIP numbers, too and if that happens I’d cut ties with him. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options). Due to the signing of OF Cody Ross, Atchison has been designated for assignment. In my most humble opinion, this should have been Albers. Sorry Matt!

Matt Albers - The only thing I like about Albers stat line for 2011 was his increase in SO/9 which was almost 3 points higher than his previous season high. What I don’t trust is a RP with a WHIP of 1.43, which sadly enough was his second best total in his career. I’ll see if there were any takers on him & try to get a decent prospect out of it. Maybe put him into a package to the Cubs in an attempt to land a better compensation deal for Theo.

Franklin Morales – His totals in Boston were his best since his rookie year of 2007. In Boston he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, a 2.82 SO/BB and a SO/9 of 8.6 second only to his 9.2 in 2009. That and the fact that he’s a lefty and only 25 years old tells me that he is a keeper. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Michael Bowden - If Bowden can continue to lower his H/9, ERA and WHIP as well as increase his SO/9 while he continues to adjust to pitching in relief, he might have his best year in a Red Sox uniform in 2012. But even if he does, it might not be enough unless it is more significant than his progress thus far seeing his WHIP was 1.50. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Junichi Tazawa - There’s not much to go on here so it all depends upon his efforts in spring training, but I don’t see a situation where he breaks camp with the big club. He’ll probably wind up in Pawtucket for some more seasoning of his game and see how he progresses as the season goes on. After all, he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Felix Doubront - Doubront’s numbers last year in Boston were not very good as can be seen over at Baseball-Reference.com and unless he can show signs of bouncing back in 2012, I would add him in with Albers and try to flip him to the Cubs in the Theo compensation deal. It’s time to cut bait on him or change the way they are using him (which may be the best route to travel if they cannot find a taker for him). The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Andrew Miller  - I don’t see where they can use him in Boston except in mop up duty unless he turns a corner in 2012 and starts living up to his potential. After all, he is just 26 years old. Just look at his numbers over at Baseball-Reference.com to see what I am talking about. His WHIP alone scares me away. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

RP Rich Hill - Was recently resigned to a minor league deal with the Red Sox that will pay him $750K if he makes it to Boston in 2012 after recovering from Tommy John surgery he had back in June 2011. I see him as a big part of the Red Sox bullpen if he can bounce back from the surgery.

Currently Available Free Agent Pitchers

SP’s

Rich Harden – I think they have gotten enough players like Harden already; therefore, I do not see them going after him, too! Although he can be dominant when healthy, but the problem is, lately, he rarely is…

Edwin Jackson - is going to cost too much for them to sign him this off season both in years and overall salary. He’d be a good number 4 or 5 starter though (much like Paul Maholm who was signed by the Cubs to an affordable one-year contract, darn you Theo!).

Roy Oswalt – On a one-year contract under $10M (probably around the $8M mark), I do that deal in a heart beat even if it means trading a few minor pieces to get it done! Come on Ben, sign him already!

Brandon Webb – He is damaged goods that I don’t think even the Red Sox would take a flyer on at this time. Let’s see what he can do on a one year contract for someone else before we jump to a final assessment on him for the long haul…

Chris Young – I still think that Young would be a good back end of the rotation kind of guy, but the question is…can he handle playing in Boston with the media frenzy and all? We may never know…the Sox may be done shopping for the rotation at this point.

RP’s

I have only listed the available arms I’d be interested in. If you would like to know my opinion on another name not listed here, please ask me in the comments below and I’ll get back to you ASAP!

Mike Gonzalez - If Gonzalez can get back to his 2009 form, he would be a nice lefty out of thre pen, but his ERA and K/9 are both trending in the wrong way, he is not a groundball pitcher and even his xFIP was over 3.7 which is a bit high for my taste for a bullpen arm.

Chad Qualls – My main concern with Qualls is the drop in his K/9 last year. He went from being over 7 and 8 (with a low of 7.47 in 2010) over the last four years, to a 5.21 in 2011. In fact, it has been dropping ever since it’s height in 2008 at 8.67. Although 2010 saw his ERA spike at 7.32, his xFIP was actually 3.72. Another bonus is that his groundball percentages have been 55% or more his whole career, which fits into the new GM’s mold for pitchers.

DFA List

SP Micah Owings – He’s coming off a year that saw him hit his best numbers in ERA (3.57), appearances (33, with 4 starts) and BABIP (.258) in the majors, but his xFIP was 4.51 (but even that was his best thus far in his career). I’d like to see him get his K/9 back up around 9.45 (2010 with the Reds). He can also be a long reliever, another spot start option or might be useful pitching in the 7th inning right in front of Melancon. A role he has not been in up to this point in his early career, but is something that could rejuvenate his career and allow him to regain those high K/9 numbers.

What I like most about his is his ability to be another right handed bat off the bench, something you don’t normally think about with a pitcher these days! Read this: in only 217 PA he has hit .286 with 27 R, 35 RBI, 9 HR, .313 OBP, .507 SLG a 106 wRC+, .222 ISO, .389 BABIP and holds a 3.8 WAR as a hitter. It’s almost like carrying an extra bench player! This move is a no brainer to me, especially when you consider that he only made around $423K last year.

Pitchers that Might be Available via Trade

If 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks sets AAA ablaze offensively and maintains his deffensive prowess, we might see Kevin Youkilis jettisoned out in a trade for one of these guys. If not, then a multi-player deal surrounding the likes of Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Matt Albers, Felix Dubront, Andrew Miller, Bobby Jenks or Michael Bowden (pick a few from this list, but there are others not mentioned that could be had) might pry one of these guys loose.

SP Matt Garza (Cubs) – Probably the least likeliest of trade possibilities, but it could happen. I just don’t think Theo and Jed would do it unless they were blown away (including Middlebrooks, Iglesias or Brittan) and I don’t see Cherrington doing that. The Cubs could use Youk, too.

SP Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) – I’m sort of luke-warm on Wandy…I just am not sold on him and I have no idea if we could handle the pressure cooker that is pitching in Boston. He also could be had on the cheap!

SP Brett Myers (Astros) – My least favorite choice. Myers is a poor mans Schilling and simply not good enough in my estimation, but could probably be had on the cheap.

SP – Tom Gorzelanny (Nationals) - Although I’d take Masterson or Garza ahead of him, Gorzelanny would work out well (if healthy) at the end of the rotation if he could handle the pressure in Boston. The deal that would net him wouldn’t be as costly either!

SP – Justin Masterson (Indians) – Probably my favorite choice on this list (which is admittedly short). I was disappointed to hear that he was a part of the Victor Martinez trade to begin with, although I would have never admitted to thinking he’d be this good as a starter. I always projected him as a long-to-short reliever. But after seeing what he’s doing in Cleveland, I’d be tickled pink to have him at the end of the Red Sox rotation! And…the Indians are looking to upgrade at 1B (Youk’s best position), too.

SP – Gavin Floyd (White Sox) - If the remaining free agent starting pitchers sign elsewhere or are asking for more (in terms of either years or dollars) than what the Red Sox are willing to shell out, then maybe the speculated trade for Floyd would be a nice option. The “other” Sox team has been either trading away players(Carlos Quentin) letting them walk (Buehrle) or signed to a long term contract (John Danks); making it difficult to understand what direction they are going in at the  present time. But seeing what the asked for in exchange for Quentin, Boston might be able to put a deal together either before the start of the season or by the trading deadline in July. I like this idea, but it would depend upon what they’d need to give up. The price might still be too high.

Hot Stove Season Transactions To Date

RP Mark Melancon - He was obtained via trade for INF Jed Lowrie and P Kyle Weiland. Melancon is primed to become a late inning arm that will be a big threat in either the 7th, 8th or 9th innings for Boston in 2012. He is young (will turn 27 during the season), comes inexpensive and will be under team control until after the 2016 season. He became the Astros closer after an injury to Brandon Lyon in May saving 20 in 25 opportunities over 74.1 innings (in 71 appearances) with an ERA of 2.78 and a 1.22 WHIP with 3 Holds. His other stats include a 7.99 K/9, .234 BAA and 2.54 K/BB. With the trade for Bailey, Melancon becomes the set up man for him taking over for Bard who will now be free to convert to the starting rotation.

Closer Andrew Bailey - He was obtained (along with OF Ryan Sweeney) via trade for OF Josh Reddick, 1B/3B Miles Head and P Raul Alcantara. Bailey, who is also 27 (like Melancon) is a two-time All Star as the A’s closer & will remain under team control until 2014.

Aaron Cook – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Cook, Silva and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Cook has only had 10+ wins twice in his career (16 in 2008 and 11 in 2009).

Carlos Silva – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is a long shot who will probably start the season in AAA and be kept as insurance, but might help out in long relief if he regains his accuracy. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Silva, Cook and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Silva has only had 10+ wins in a season four times (2004, 2006-2007 and 2010). I like the possibility of Silva regaining his touch over Cook. Silva has also been better more recently than Cook, too.

Justin Germano - Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but after seeing his numbers per Baseball-Reference, and the signings of Cook and Silva, I don’t see him making the big club out of spring training.

Vicente Padilla – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is my favorite choice out of the pack obtained to vie for the 4th & 5th spot in the rotation because he’s had more recent success than the others. He has also had four seasons with 10+ wins, but in those seasons he has been more consistent (14 wins three times in 2003-04 and 2008 and 15 wins in 2006) and his xFIP (3.40 and 3.47 in 2011 and 2010 in LA) has been more consistent throughout his career.

John Maine – Was recently signed to a minor league deal and will probably start off the season at AAA as a relief pitcher.

The Free Agent Pitchers, To Date, Who They Should Have Signed

The following pitchers all signed one year deals that the Red Sox could have afforded and should have made.

Hiroki Kuroda (SP) - Signed for $10,000,000 with the Yankees and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. This is the one fish I am really sad to see get away and the fact that he went to the arch rival Yankees makes it hurt even worse!

Paul Maholm (SP) - Signed for $4,750,000 with the Cubs and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. Why the Red Sox didn’t beat Theo to the punch on this one is beyond me unless they had no idea he could be had for so cheap and for just one year!

Jon Rauch (RP) – Signed for $3,500,000 with the Mets. He’d have been a nice addition to the pen…

George Sherrill (RP) - Signed for $1,100,000 with the Mariners. He would have been a nice guy to pitch to lefties (as much as I hate this tactic) out of the pen.

Joel Zumaya (RP) - Signed for $850,000 with the Twins and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. At this price, he was so worth the risk!

In closing, if you have any questions about a player I have either mentioned or neglected to mention, but should have, let’s discuss that in the comments below. I look forward to seeing you there!

Photo taken from Google Images

With the impending retirement announcement of Yankee veteran Jorge Posada, baseball fans are wondering, what will his legacy be? For the diehard fans of New York, Posada will go down among the greats. For those who analyze statistics, Jorge Posada was a quality player on both sides of the plate, but his lack of production in the playoffs and overall average seasons leave much to be desired.

A career .273 hitter, Posada racked up 275 home runs, a .374 on-base percentage, a .474 slugging percentage, and a respectable .848 OPS. Posada collected 936 walks which is good enough for 15^th place among active players and swatted 379 doubles. Yet, Posada also managed to strike out 1,453 times (58^th most all-time and 13^th most among active players). The 40-year-old catcher’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stands at 44.7, which means he has consistently made himself an asset to the Yankee starting lineup. Among active players, Posada ranks 27^th in Runs Created (RC) with 1,100. Defensively, he provided a career 7.49 Range Factor per 9 innings (RF/9 is a statistic used to measure how many outs a player is involved with, thus allowing a more comprehensive evaluation of one’s defensive play), which ranks 24^th all-time among catchers. Also don’t forget Posada’s 2007 season, he remains the only catcher in history to hit at least .330 with 20 homers and 90 RBI.

Posada’s postseason shortcomings damaged what is otherwise an outstanding catching career. With the exception of last fall’s ALDS, Posada failed to impress during the crucial playoff games. What’s worse is that as the Yankees got deeper into postseason, Posada’s production fell further into the abyss. Posada’s postseason batting average is a measly .248. In six World Series, he hit just .219. His OPS in the playoffs is more than 100 points lower than his career average at just .745.

Image via Wikipedia

Still, Yankee fans will see far past those lackluster playoff numbers and remember the mighty catcher who won five World Series rings, caught a perfect game, collected five Silver Sluggers, was named to five All-Star games, and started 1,574 games behind the plate for the Yankees (trailing only Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey). Posada was an integral part of the latest Yankee dynasty, part of the legendary “Core Four” along with Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte. What’s even more impressive about Posada is his durability, which until recently was unwavering.  The Bronx Bombers never placed Posada on the disabled list until the 2007 season.

Is Jorge Posada a Hall of Famer? No, probably not. Will he be remembered as a winner, an intense competitor, and a highly respected battery mate? Absolutely. Take a look back at the infamous 2003 ALCS brawl between the Red Sox and Yankees (Note: Pedro Martinez vs. Don Zimmer). Who was the first to stand up to the mouthy Martinez and defend his team? Captain Jeter? Joe Torre? No, it was Jorge Posada who took the first bullet for New York by exchanging verbal jabs with Pedro. He’s a fiercely loyal guy who didn’t mind taking a back seat to big name players in the name of winning championships. If there was a Hall of Fame for players with heart, Posada would be one of the first inducted.