Generally I haven’t been a big fan of ESPN’s Sweet Spot Blog over the past few months. The writing of David Schoenfield just doesn’t compare of the wit and insights we used to see in that space when Rob Neyer was at the helm. But, I will give Schoenfield his credit as he does occasionally post something that catches my attention.

One of his more recent posts brought about an intriguing question: did the Tampa Bay Rays wait too long to call up Desmond Jennings?

Schoenfield’s discussion centers on the expectations that were placed on Jennings entering the 2011 season, the organization’s alternatives that were played instead for months, and the fact that the production we’ve seen thus far from the young outfielder is unlike what he’s done throughout his minor league career. He goes on to conclude that Jennings may develop into an All Star caliber player, but he isn’t there yet. But despite his recent hot play, if the Rays fail to make playoffs (which at this point in time appears likely) it isn’t simply because they waited too long to insert Jennings into the lineup.

Logic compels me to agree with Schoenfield’s larger point – that the team’s failure to reach the post season is not the fault of Jennings. Offensive production has been lacking from a number of positions. Kelly Shoppach (.174/.269/.300, 218 plate appearances) and John Jaso (224/.307/.358, 226 plate appearances) have shared the bulk of the catching duties and both have been disappointments. Shortstop Reid Brignac (.194/.231/.218, 219 plate appearances) has been a big hole in the lineup after a strong 2010 campaign. Elliot Johnson (.195/.256/.338, 174 plate appearances) hasn’t been much better. Both positions figure to play a central role in the team’s offseason plans.

B.J. Upton (.224/.308/.392, 510 plate appearances) has largely struggled at the plate, yet he still drew a great deal of attention at and after this year’s trading deadline. The team opted to hold onto him, at least for now, because they still feel he’s valuable to them, particularly on defense. Upton has never lived up to his offensive expectations but signs of regression can’t be good for his future outlook. With one final year of team control remaining, the offseason might be the right time to deal him rather than simply waiting for the extra draft picks when he leaves via free agency.

Evan Longoria (.236/.332/.476, 443 plate appearances) has also not hit like himself this season and one has to wonder how much of this has to do with the injury that kept him sidelined at the onset of the season. His power has returned, as he’s hit a team leading 24 home runs thus far, but he has otherwise struggled at the plate and hasn’t been been the usual defensive standout.

It hasn’t all been negative, however, for the Rays this year. Ben Zobrist (.280/.366/.484, 565 plate appearances) continues to be the second most valuable player on the team from an offensive standpoint (behind only Longoria) thanks to his consistency and with some help from his defensive versatility. Matt Joyce (.284/.347/.497, 430 plate appearances) has developed into a reliable outfielder despite a recent dip in his season batting average over the past few weeks. Casey Kotchman (.323/.390/.451, 446 plate appearances) has enjoyed a strong season after winning the first base job (one that has lacked consistent production for years) in Spring Training.

Jennings has been impressive since the Rays recalled him on July 23rd and inserted him atop the lineup. In 153 plate appearances across 34 games since he is batting .354/.440/.646 with 8 HR and 14 stolen bases. The Rays have gone 21-13 over that stretch but still currently sit 9 games in back of the AL East leading Red Sox and 7.5 games behind the wild card leading Yankees. Could an earlier arrival of Jennings have made a difference on the Rays’ season? Yes, it is possible. But ultimately it is the collective disappointments of the offense as a whole that have kept this team out of contention in 2011.

Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, FL

The season is halfway over and it appears that the Rays are still hanging on to a place at the table come October.  Being 6 games out, the chances of taking the Division seem slim, but given the equation of a normal team in Major League Baseball of winning 50, losing 50, and fighting for 62 games each season certainly gives the Rays a chance.  There are two ways to get to the playoffs at the end of the year.  Win the division or earn a wildcard birth.

The Yankees and the Red Sox will make it difficult for the Rays to earn either path to the playoffs.  Starting at 6 games out of first place and 4.5 games out of the wildcard, it will be a challenge for the Rays to progress to either spot.  However, do not count them out yet.  There are some injuries that will come into play for the Yankees and the Red Sox that could help the Rays gain a game here and there.

The Tampa Bay Rays are very strong on the road and will need to continue that consistency to make a run at the top spot.  Their home record sits at .500 presently and the Rays need to improve on that home record to make the difference.  .500 is a great record to have in home settings, but normally you would think that home field advantage would make a big difference.  However, playing indoors is never a plus for any team in a setting like the Tampa/St. Pete region.

Pitching continues to be the strong suit for the Tampa Bay Rays.  The team ERA is 3.58 with Jim Shields yielding a team leading 2.33 average.    Kyle Farnsworth has 17 saves and has figured into the winning percentages dramatically.  Price who appeared to be the strongest point of the Rays pitching staff has slipped over the past month.  Although his numbers are still upscale, he has dropped some games in the win column within the last 4 weeks.

BJ Upton seems to be back on tract for a productive year after getting off to a very slow start.  At this point, Upton leads the team with 15 homeruns, 50 RBI’s, but only has a .239 batting average.  A far cry from what he is capable of producing.  Matt Joyce leads the team while hitting .290 with the team batting average sits at a low mark of .245.

In essence, the Rays have their work cut out for them to go the distance and make up ground over the next 10 weeks.  It is not impossible, but they need to take advantage of the upcoming series with the Red Sox and the Yankees to sneak back into the playoffs picture.

Image Taken from Google Images

The Rays are one of the hottest teams in Major League Baseball with 22 wins.  They have won 7 of their last 10 games and are sitting in first place with the Yankees now in second by 1 game, the Rays are now 22-15 on the season.  Pitching and hitting have equalized and should cause concern amongst the entire American League East Division.

Run production is way up since last week and has the Rays in the top half of the field of MLB teams.  The Rays are the best road team in MLB right now and that fact has certainly been a big factor in their success on the year.  Evan Longoria is back in the line up and BJ Upton has caught fire to help sweep the O’s last weekend.

Matt Joyce has been most consistent with the bat as of late with an average of .358.  Ben Zobrist leads the team in all other batting categories and is hitting almost 30 points higher than his career average to date.  Team batting average is .250 compared to opponents .233.  Pitching is very strong for the Rays as the numbers show and opponent’s average are proof.

Team ERA has fallen for the second week in a row from 3.40 to 3.25.  Rankings for the Rays have jumped from 15^th to 6^th over the past week and are in good company with the St. Louis Cardinals just below and Florida Marlins just above.  This week took the Tampa Bay Rays to Cleveland (they won 2-3) and then back to the Trop for a series with the O’s again.  Jumping ahead a little, here come those Yanks!!!

Image Taken from Google Images

A couple weeks ago, I had written that once the Rays bats start to get hot, lookout.  Well, it is not that the team is batting at its full potential, but the pitching staff has really held their ground and the Rays are consistently winning.  What they have done lately is most impressive. As I stated in the first three Rays Reports, that 0-6 start really puts a team behind the 8-ball right out of the gate.  Now, with a 15-12 record, the Rays have made a total transformation since the first week.

Pitching is still the strongest asset the Rays have and has kept them in games and certainly contributed to the winning record.  James Shields is the first pitcher since 2002 to throw consecutive complete games for the Tampa Rays when he accomplished the feat last week.

The bats came alive in a few games this week by putting more runs on the board.  Sam Fuld’s average has dropped off to a normal .260 after setting the world on fire with his hits and run production early on.  Matt Joyce is batting .321; Ben Zorbrist has 7 home runs in 100 at bats and also leads the team in RBI’s with 25.  Sam Fuld still leads the team with total number of hits for the season after coming on the scene a week late.

Team ERA has fallen from 3.86 to 3.40.    Power Rankings show that the Rays have dropped one spot from last week, mostly due to the strong showings from the Red Sox who jumped from 25^th to 13^th.  There are 2 players that are in the Top 10 in stats in hitting and pitching for the Tampa Rays who are now ranked 21^st in MLB for team batting average and 8^th in team ERA.  As has been the case over the season thus far, pitching has kept the Rays in the hunt and it will need to continue this coming week with series against the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles.  Winning each series will create more space between the Rays and the other teams in the division.  Only 1.5 games out of first, the Rays could find themselves leading the American League East by this time next week.

Photo taken from Google Images

You have to take your hat off to the Tampa Bay Rays.  Their play had to be on the mark for the last two weeks and it has been just that.  The team is 8-3 out of the last 11 with a .500 record after starting the season 0-6.  It was a must win situation in every game they played to stay in the hunt and they have accomplished the task.

The American League East is very close from top to bottom with only the Yankees maintaining a winning record to date.  Tampa and Boston (at the time of this writing on 4/24) are only 3 games back, Toronto is close at 3.5 games back and Baltimore in last 5 games back.  Tampa ended an important series with the Blue Jays and has themselves in 2^nd place.  Pitching has remained strong and it remains within the top 10 in MLB in all pitching categories.  Hitting is still lagging behind with the Rays in the bottom 10 of MLB rankings.   It took the Jays 11 innings to beat the Rays on Friday night and a rematch on Saturday.  By the end of the day on Easter Sunday, the Rays had taken the series. With the division being so close from top to bottom the Rays need to maintain their momentum if they are to catch the Yankees.

Image via Wikipedia

Sam Fuld is hitting an impressive .360 and has certainly filled in the gap left by Manny Ramirez’s bat.  BJ Upton who was hot out of the gate and leading the team in all batting statistics has cooled and has been virtually silent for the Rays since the first week.  His average has dropped from .361 to .212 in the past couple weeks.  If the Rays start hitting as an overall team, things will change fast in the American League East.

Team ERA has been the secret ingredient to winning for the Rays at 3.86.  As far as team ERA goes, they are in the top 10 in MLB. The pitching staff has kept the Rays in the hunt when the offence is just getting warmed up.  This coming week will have the Rays taking on the Twins and the LA Angels.  If the bats ever needed to get hot, it is now.  With an 11-11 record, offense, defense and pitching will need to come together to continue winning games and hanging in at the top of the division.

Photo taken from Google Images c/o The Bleacher Report

Photo taken from Google Images

Covering the Tampa Bay Rays was supposed to be a year of excitement on the field.  Winning has gotten off to a slow start as well as the bats of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.  A start of 0-6 is certainly not what any team GM or manager wants to contend with.  In addition to the poor start to the season, the Rays rank 30^th in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage in Major League Baseball.  B.J. Upton is putting up good numbers but nobody else on the team seems to be able to match his performance at the plate.

Retired rather than being Suspended for 100 Games (for 2nd Offense)

To add even more troubles for the Rays, the decision for Manny Ramirez to retire after a 19-year career in baseball has added to the panic.  Ramirez was once said to be the best player ever seen by MLB scouts prior to him being drafted by the Cleveland Indians has called it a career.  Manny has certainly had his problems with almost every team that he has played with and decided to escape the 100 game suspension by retiring.  His fault or not, the most recent drug testing policy violation would have made him unavailable to the Rays for most of the season.

On the day of his retirement, he is in a category with the elite of baseball.  His .319 career batting average, 555 homeruns, and .411 on base percentage are most impressive.  Only two other players are in the same category with these types of numbers, Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.  It is unfortunate that Manny Ramirez is the only player to be in a category by himself for testing positive 2 times for performance enhancing drugs.  This will certainly create a cloud of controversy about his entire career and the numbers he put up.  Where the numbers enhanced by PED’s? We will probably never know the answer to that question.  The expectations from Manny were high.  He was supposed to help the Rays with a boost in offensive power.  Now, the Rays are left without a key member, which they were hoping to rely on heavily for run production.

Pitching for the Rays has not been very spectacular either.  James Shields has put up the only decent numbers on the entire pitching staff for the team.  The team ERA over six games is 4.42 while giving up a total of three homeruns, 26 earned runs, 45 strike outs, and 12 base on balls.  Even though it’s extremely early in the season, the Rays should be concerned.  Hitting, pitching and overall run production is very low.  However, defense is positive with a .991 percentage. There have been only two errors by two different players through the first six games.  At this point, defense and the 10 strikeouts pitched by Jeremy Hellickson are the only shinning spots for the Tampa Bay Rays.

It has been said that in the game of baseball, you will win 50, you will loose 50, and the other 62 is something a team must be determined to fight for to be in contention at the end of the season.  So far, it appears that the Rays are on pace to loose the 50 games first and get that part of the equation out of the way.  The pitching must improve as well as the hitting.  Without the two coming together very soon and remaining consistent, the Rays are in for a long season.  B.J. Upton leads the team in every batting category.  In comparison with his other teammates, there is no comparison.  The rest of the lineup must start producing when the opportunities present themselves if they want to win consistently.

There is still hope for the Rays.  Starting off with a 0-6 record does dampen the spirits of the Rays faithful.  However, this is baseball.  Anything is possible and I would not say that the Rays are completely out of contention just yet.  Baltimore cannot continue at the same pace they are currently on, nor can Toronto.  The Yankees are always just a step behind and Boston will certainly start to win more consistently, too. This coming week will be a determining factor for the Rays as they finished a series with the White Sox (this past weekend), a three game series against the Red Sox (which starts tonight) and then taking on the Twins.  Manager Joe Maddon knows the importance of winning over the next week.  The season may depend on it.

Photo taken from Google Images

With the recent signings by the New York Yankees of Bartolo Colon and Andruw Jones, the Tampa Bay Rays of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez and the Baltimore Orioles of Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero you have to wonder if these teams realize that it is 2011 and not 2005.
If it were 2005, the impact of these signings would without question make these three contenders the top teams in the division and favorites for the World Series.
In 2005, Bartolo Colon won 21 games for the Anaheim Angels and was named the American League Cy Young Award winner.
In the2005 American League MVP race, Vladimir Guerrero finished third, Manny Ramirez was fourth and Johnny Damon placed 13th.
On the National League side, Andruw Jones placed second while Derrek Lee was third.
Unfortunately as the Yankees, Rays and Orioles look toward 2011, most of these former superstars are years removed from performing at that high level.
That is especially the case for the two new Yankees Jones and Colon.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Since his Cy Young season, Colon has won a grand total of 14 major league games and did not pitch in the majors in 2010. With the retirement of Andy Pettitte and inconsistency of A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes, the Yankees are crossing their fingers that Colon and fellow non-roster invitees Freddy Garcia (third in 2001 Cy Young voting) and Mark Prior (third in 2003 Cy Young voting) can return to past form.
They are also hopeful that at the age of 33, five-time All-Star Andruw Jones still has some pop in his bat. Though expected to serve as the fourth outfielder for the Yankees, the team would certainly like to see him provide another offensive weapon. However, if recent years are any indication, how much pop he has left is questionable. In his final three years with the Atlanta Braves (2005-2007), Jones smashed 118 home runs and drove in 351 runs. In the three seasons since he left Atlanta, Jones has hit a grand total of 39 home runs and driven in 105 runs. He also has gone from being a 10-time Gold Glove fielder to being a part-time outfielder and part-time designated hitter.
But New York is not alone in looking to the past to help save their present.
While the Tampa Bay Rays cut significant salary during the off-season, they still have a solid nucleus that is capable of contending in 2011. For that reason, the addition of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez is hoped to help fill some of the void left by the loss of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena.
Though he is now 37 years old, Damon is still capable of serving as a table setter for the Rays. Last season he played in 145 games for the Tigers and hit .271 while scoring 81 runs. He is no longer a base stealing threat, but he should be a solid addition to the lineup.
It is difficult to predict what the Rays will get out of Ramirez, who will turn 39 on May 30th. Since serving a 50-game suspension for violating the MLB drug policy in 2009, Ramirez hasn’t been the same dominating player that he was for most of his career.
Splitting time between the Dodgers and White Sox in 2010, Ramirez played in only 90 games and hit .298 with nine home runs and 42 RBI.
If he is healthy and motivated in 2011, he could be a huge addition to the lineup. However, if he struggles, Ramirez could become a distraction and have a short tenure with the Rays.
Of the three teams that went back in time looking for help in 2011, the Baltimore Orioles seem to have the best chance of seeing big dividends.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

The 36-year-old Guerrero had a tremendous season in 2010 helping lead the Texas Rangers to the World Series. Though he struggled during the playoffs, his regular season was still tremendous as he hit .300 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI.
If he can come close to a repeat performance in 2011 Guerrero will give the Orioles a much needed run producer in the middle of the lineup and take pressure off the young Baltimore hitters.
A similar statement can be made about the other big signing for the Orioles in first baseman Derrek Lee. The 35-year-old Lee had a solid season in 2010 with 19 home runs, 80 RBI and a .260 average. In 2009 he hit 35 home runs with 111 RBI and a .306 average for the Cubs.
If Lee is able to produce at a level somewhere in between those two seasons, he will be a huge improvement over what the Orioles had at first base a year ago.
Though the Orioles could have used a veteran starting pitcher, signing Guerrero and Lee will certainly help make them even more competitive in 2011 than they were over the final two months of the 2010 season when they went 34-23 under new manager Buck Showalter.
Because it is 2011, instead of 2005, the reality is that all three teams will likely spend the season chasing the only team in the division that spent the offseason signing players actually reaching the peak of their careers, the Boston Red Sox.

Just when you think you have the Rays’ figured out, they go and have an off-season that defies all logic and seeming desire to win.

How else can you explain replacing Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford with Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez? It’s obvious that these two were thrown into the off-season recycle bin by their 2010 teams (Detroit and Chicago White Sox, respectively).

Many other teams had a look but only the Rays were foolish enough to exhume them from the pile of washed up players. Are the Rays that desperate to resort to a once skilled player definitely on the downside (and being paid over $5 million) and one who has been an All-Star malcontent for every team he has played for?

The Rays remain a conflict of interest, an enigma that seems to win in spite of constantly shooting itself in the foot (sorry to all of the overly sensitive people for my “careless “reference to a violent action).  They once were and still are to some degree a case study of winning through use of a strong farm system.  Their 2011 starting rotation will be fully home grown now that Matt Garza has been sent to the Cubs.

Their willingness to let productive players leave is dumbfounding. This past off-season alone saw regular contributors Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Oswaldo Navarro, Rafael Soriano and the aforementioned Garza leave with little or no resistance.

It appears that Johnny Damon, Desmond Jennings, Dan Johnson, Reid Brignac, John Jaso, the re-habbed J.P Howell and Jeremy Hellickson will replace them. Ramirez will earn his $2 million as a DH.

The 24 year-old Jennings was the club’s #1 prospect last year and all indications are that he is ready. According to Baseball America: “Jennings has a lethal combination of  speed and power that, combined with an aggressive approach and impressive overall knowledge, makes him a true game-changer”. Brignac became a regular last year when Bartlett was injured then benched for poor hitting. Johnson is a 31 year-old retread getting another chance to prove he’s an everyday player. Howell saved 17 games in 2009 before being shelved all last year due to shoulder surgery and it is doubtful he’ll be ready opening day.  Jaso played in 109 games last year and hit .261/.368/.741 which seems to be good enough.

Sean Rodriguez is slated to open at 2b and Jennings will be shifted to rf with the arrival of Damon. That leaves the versatile Ben Zobrist looking again for a permanent place on the field.

Over the past decade the Rays were arguably the best at scouting and drafting players. Since then they have drafted then either traded or lost through free agency these players:

I now see that it is much easier doing one of these with at least one more person like on the BBA Baseball Talk podcasts or online with the guys over at Pro Rumors TV.

Either way, I hope you enjoy this & I’ll work on improving this as I do more of these solo webcasts thanks to my new laptop with the built in webcam!

So without further ado, on with the webcast…

Sorry for the delay…we have some technical difficulties with YouTube earlier that had to wait until I got home from work. I went 2:05 over the allowed 15 minute time frame.

American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions from Peter Schiller on Vimeo.

This 17 minute webcast (my first) is my American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions.

Please let me know if you think it is too long.
Thanks!