With two Silver Sluggers and an Most Valuable Player award, the Texas Rangers’ Josh Hamilton has always been one of baseball’s elite, but his on-field injuries and off-the-field substances have limited his potential throughout his career.

However, you’ve probably heard that 2012 is a completely different story. Through his first 30 games, the Rangers’ outfielder has amassed a whopping 18 home runs and 41 runs batted in, with an eye-popping .402/.457/.873 slash line.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock recently, you probably also heard about Hamilton’s power surge last Tuesday night, when he teed off on the Baltimore Orioles for four home runs, eight RBIs, and 18 total bases at Camden Yards. With only 16 four-HR games in Major League Baseball history, the feat ranks among perfect games (21) and unassisted triple plays (15) as one of the most rare achievements in baseball. With that being said, how much luck was involved in Hamilton’s epic night?

Let’s break down each of his long balls:

Home Run No. 1: Hamilton started his off the fireworks with a bomb off of Orioles’ starter Jake Arrieta in the top of the first. The 79-mph curveball stayed up over the leftmost third of the plate, a meatball for the left-handed Hamilton considering it was thrown by a right-hander. The baseball traveled a mere 404 feet, barely escaping the center-field wall and Andruw Jones’ outstretched glove. Move the walls back a yard, and Jones could have hauled it in. According to ESPN’s online Home Run Tracker, this tater had “just enough” to escape Camden Yards, but would not have left any other ballpark under standard weather conditions. However, MLB Advanced Media recorded a 6-mph breeze blowing to straightaway center field at first pitch, which gave the ball some extra lift over the fence. Conclusion: Lucky

Home Run  No. 2: Hamilton’s second dinger also came off of Arrieta in the third inning, but unlike the first, there was no question about this one. The right-hander’s 93-mph sinker wound up in nearly the same location as his first offering, but Hamilton redirected the faster pitch 387 feet into the left-center bleachers. Clearing the fence by a whopping 23 feet, ESPN’s database claims that it would have left 26 of the 30 stadiums in the Majors. In other words, only the offense-killing confines of Petco and Marlins Park might have kept this one in the yard. Conclusion: Legit

Home Run No. 3: After doubling off the wall in right-center field, Hamilton slammed another home run to left-center field. Again, the offering (a 78-mph slider from left-handed rookie Zach Phillips) was on the outer third of the plate, but hung up in the zone, easy pickings for a red-hot Hamilton. Number 3 ended up in nearly the same spot as Number 1, landing 406 feet from home plate. With the wind continuing to blow toward center field, Jones jumped but had no hope of snagging it. ESPN estimates that the breeze added six feet to this shot, turning an easy can-of-corn into Hamilton’s third dinger of the night. Conclusion: Lucky

Home Run No 4: Ex-Texas Ranger reliever Darren O’Day was Hamilton’s final victim. For a fourth time, the pitch (another slider clocking in at only 83 mph) landed in Hamilton’s wheelhouse, giving him another opportunity to show what he can do with off-speed pitches landing on the outer third of the plate. Number 4 traveled 425 feet to left-center, so far from numbers 1 and 3 that Jones could only give a half-hearted jog across Camden’s outfield. The wind actually knocked a foot off this long ball’s distance, but this one would’ve left 87 percent of Major League Baseball parks anyway (ESPN). Kudos to Orioles’ manager Buck Showalter for not ordering an intentional walk, but at this point, Hamilton was so locked in that he could have hit one out even if it was two feet off the plate. Conclusion: Legit

With four juicy outside pitches and a strong wind to work with, Hamilton clearly caught some breaks last Tuesday night. Achieving this feat during a night game probably made things a bit easier. Hamilton is historically a poorer hitter during day games, batting .260 versus .332 during night contests from 2009-2011. But does a .402 hitter really care what time he takes his hacks? It’s interesting to consider the factors behind his epic performance, but it can’t take away from Hamilton’s ability with the bat.

His otherworldly start makes for a more enthralling off-season, when he will be the top free agent on the market.

Photo taken from Google Images

Francisco Martinez is quite a polarizing figure for a guy who most Mariner fans have never seen in person. The guy came over in the Doug Fister trade. Fister was a fan-favorite. I think Fister will regress next year, but I liked him enough as a pitcher to be sad that he’s gone. However, when he was traded to Detroit there was a perception that came from some fans and media members about Francisco Martinez.

Here are some truths, and some things that go against Martinez:

The Tigers have a shallow farm system.

Martinez hasn’t dominated at any level.

Martinez strikes out too much.

He’s not a defensive wizard yet.

That’s it. Some people have chosen to view Martinez void of all context. Martinez has been pushed quickly through the Tigers system. Last year he was four years younger than the average player in the Double A leagues he played in.

I don’t have a ton of good comprehensive metrics for minor league baseball, but Martinez had the highest OPS (.724) of any qualifying 20 year old not named Anthony Gose in the Eastern League, the league he played in with Detroit’s Double A affiliate. Gose ranks 57^th in MLB’s top 100 prospects.  If he’d have qualified in the Southern League (he’s two plate appearances short of qualifying for the leader board), where the Mariners Double-A affiliate West Tennessee plays, he’d have been the top 20 year old in the category there too (.807 OPS).

It’s not that common to see a 20 year old in the Eastern League. Here is a list of 20-and-unders from the Eastern League who have out OPS’d Martinez recently.

2010

Anthony Rizzo: .815 OPS, 37^th best prospect in 2012

2009

Jesus Montero (you may have heard of him): .909 OPS, 12^th best prospect in 2012

Jose Tabata: .774 OPS, 75^th prospect in 2009 (in the majors since then)

Ruben Tejeda: .732 OPS

2008

Travis Snider: .818 OPS, 6^th best prospect in 2009 (in majors since 2010)

Fernando Martinez: .772 OPS, 30^th best prospect in baseball in 2009

The point here isn’t to say that Martinez is as good a prospect as any of these guys. It’s worth nothing however, that save for Tejeda, who was a shortstop who moved to second base because of Jose Reyes, the other players project to play either corner outfield positions, first base, or DH long term.

Martinez may not be a defensive wizard at this point in his career, but unlike Alex Liddi, if he moves off the position he’ll end up in one of those corner outfield positions, not in the log-jam that should be first base five years from now. Martinez is a superior athlete to the rest of the Mariners bat-first third base prospects. That’s not to say that Martinez defensive struggles aren’t a concern. He’s much more valuable to the team or in a trade if he sticks at third base. But if he can’t hang at the hot corner his value isn’t sapped as a guy with a below-average first baseman ceiling. He’s further along defensively than Dustin Ackley was at this time last year, also.

And how about those strikeouts? I don’t know if I mentioned this, but Martinez played at least one level up from where he’d traditionally be at in his progression to this point. Double A is a big test for a 20 year old. Martinez struck out in 20.4 percent of his plate appearances last year. That was a slight bump from the 19.0 percent he’d produced at Advanced-A the year before. But have I mentioned yet that Martinez is four years ahead of the average prospect? The elderly group of 24.4 year olds in the Eastern League struck out 19.9 percent on average. The guys back at Advanced-A where Martinez played last year struck out at 19.9 percent last year too.

He was about a percent better than average last year playing in a league three years older than him, and a half-percent worse than average this year playing in a league four years older than him. Four years. Four Years. FOUR YEARS!

But what about the long ball? We’re tired of gloves. What about his bat. Does he have a big bat? I bet it’s about 33 inches long and somewhere around 32 ounces, give or take a couple inches or ounces. He hit 10 home runs last year, and posted an ISO of .137. I’m not an expert on park factors in the Eastern League, but Martinez was in a three way tie for second on his team in home runs. He was behind a 25 year old, and was tied with a 23 year old, and a 27 year old. I hardly think that three players from a poor farm system’s Double A affiliate qualify as adequate qualitative measuring sticks, but still.

He wasn’t close to the league lead though. He was 46^th. Interestingly, Chih-Hsien Chiang was 7^th in the league despite limited time in the league, hitting 18 homers and 37 doubles in 358 plate appearances. He’s 23 years old.

I don’t know if Martinez will be a great MLB third baseman. I think he will be an MLB third baseman though. He’s got a chance to be pretty good. He’s on the right track so far. He’ll be interesting to watch this year, wherever he ends up in the Mariners system. I’d like to see him walk more, and see his glove improve, but there’s an outside shot that he makes his MLB debut this year. All of the aforementioned high-OPS Eastern Leaguers have.

NPB SP Yu Darvish image taken from Google Images

The Texas Rangers have been very busy in the last couple of weeks. Right now the Rangers are still trying to negotiate a deal with Yu Darvish but there is a limited amount of information and insight on the negotiations. Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported earlier this week that The Texas Rangers are becoming increasingly optimistic that the deal will get done by the Wednesday, Jan. 18 deadline.

I am sure the Rangers would like to sign Darvish for a “Dice-K” – like contract. Dice-K (Daisuke Matsuzaka) signed a 6-year $52 million contract with the Boston Red Sox six years ago. Times have changed since then, many executives and player’s agents in the league believe that Darvish will sign a 6-year deal closer to $70 million. Time will only tell and that time runs out at 4:00 p.m. central time on Jan. 18^th.

With Spring Training rolling right around the corner, the Rangers have invited 8 players to camp this march. Texas prospects Mike Olt and Tommy Mendonca will both be trying to transition themselves to a new position. Olt, normally a third baseman, will be going into Spring Training as a first baseman as well. Mendonca will try to transition to the catching position. Pitchers Fabio Castilla, Greg Reynolds (acquired in trade with COL), Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers and Ben Snyder along with infielder Greg Miclat were also extended invitations.

Quick Hits

-      Mike Napoli’s and Derek Holland’s contact extension negotiations will be tabled until a later date. With the Ranger’s front office is focusing on Yu Darvish, Mike and Derek are on hold.

-      Reliever Mike Adams recently underwent Hernia surgery, but team officials are confident that he will be ready for opening day.

-      Minor League corner infielder Chad Tracy was traded to Colorado a few days ago for former 1^st round draft pick RHP Greg Reynolds. Reynolds has since been invited to Spring Training.

-      The Rangers have been showing some real interest in veteran OF/1B Brad Hawpe. Hawpe could take some time at 1B as Moreland recovers from his injury.

-      Ticket prices for 2012 have been released; most prices are higher than they have ever been, obviously due to recent success. The construction of Vandergriff Plaza in Center Field is also coming along nicely.

Photo taken from Google Images

Albert Pujols opens up about his decision to sign with the Angels, noting that he brings experience to a young club.

Photo taken from Google Images

In a twist reminiscent of last year’s Cliff Lee negotiations, what appeared to be a two-team race for the services of Albert Pujols between the Cardinals and Marlins was upset by the entrance of a third “Mystery Team”. Though many believed the Mystery Team was simply a tactic Pujols’ agent, Dan Lozano, was using to squeeze every possible dollar out of Pujols’ suitors, buzz around the mystery team rumor continued to grow. In the course of roughly 12 hours on Wednesday night and Thursday morning of the Winter Meetings, headlines such as “Pujols Deciding Between Cardinals, Marlins” and statements such as “Angels are definitely not in on Pujols” gave way to news that Pujols’ pact with the Angels was confirmed. Pujols will receive $254M over the next 10 years, with his contract expiring in his age 41 season.

Signing a once-in-a-generation player to a Free Agent deal is always a difficult proposition because, almost by definition, there are very few players who can be invoked as comparables to the 31 year old Pujols and used to determine his long-term value. In analyzing Pujols’ contract, I will look at the aging curves of players approaching Pujols’ caliber to estimate a reasonable expectation for Pujols’ future production and determine whether he is likely to produce enough value to be worth the value of his massive contract.

I used Baseball-Reference’s Play Index (a nifty tool, if you haven’t played around with it) to find all expansion-era (post-1961) players who produced >50 WAR in their first 11 seasons while playing an offense-heavy position (1B, 3B, LF, RF). In his first 11 seasons, Pujols has put up an incredible 89.1 WAR, but looking at players in this group who eclipsed that mammoth total would leave you with… well, Pujols. Though he’s an outlier among outliers, the rest of this group is populated with Hall of Famers and all-time greats, and I believe the aging curve established by these players will provide some insight into how Pujols may age. Overall, this group included 20 players, but I removed Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki, as both have just completed their 11th season in the Majors. I then looked at the average production among the players for each subsequent year after their 11th. Comparing this average production to the players’ three-year weighted (standard 5-4-3 weighting) average from their 9th to 11th seasons, we can determine how quickly a player’s contributions diminish as they age. Then, using Pujols’ 3-year averages as a starting point; we can depreciate his value based on these ratios and estimate his production in each year of his contract. Multiplying these values by $/WAR, with a 5%/year inflation rate added, gives us Pujols’ total expected value over the length of the contract. Got all that? Let’s dive in.

The 18 players included in the data set are: Barry Bonds, Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, Ricky Henderson, Jeff Bagwell, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Ron Santo, Dick Allen, George Brett, Bobby Bonds, Todd Helton, Eddie Murray, Sal Bando, Pete Rose, Scott Rolen, and Chipper Jones. Most of these players, unsurprisingly, were not able to finish their 21st seasons in the Majors, so players are not included in the average for any year after their retirement. This may understate the likelihood that Pujols retires before the end of his contract, but I don’t see this as a major risk, especially considering Pujols’ incredible durability. Pujols has played 1705 games in his first 11 seasons, the best total for any player included in this data. Several active players also have not completed their 21st seasons, which were treated similarly to players who retired. Regardless, it’s difficult to project much production as Pujols nears and passes age 40, so this data isn’t as important as trying to estimate production for the first few years of Pujols’ contract.

Overall, the players averaged almost exactly 5 WAR in their 9th through 11th MLB seasons. After this point, their production dropped off by an average of 15% per year until the end of their careers. In total, taking the average production from each year produces an expected 27 WAR for players’ 12th to 21st seasons, or 5.44 times the players’ three-year average baseline.

Click to see data from comparables

Pujols’ three-year weighted average is 6.9 WAR, so we’ll use that as our starting point. The projected first six years of Pujols’ contract, through the 2017 campaign, seem to be something like what the Angels have in mind in signing Pujols, as this model suggests he will be in the 4-6 WAR range each season. After 2017, however, Pujols’ expected value drops precipitously, as the model projects less than 10 WAR total over the final four seasons of Pujols’ deal. After multiplying these WAR values by the $/WAR inflation rates, Pujols’ total expected value over the course of the deal comes out to $222M, $32M short of the total value of his contract. Although this is a fairly rough calculation, it offers a clear indication that Pujols could have trouble living up to the total dollar value of his massive deal.

Click to see the model’s predictions for Pujols’ production

So, if that’s the case, what’s the reasoning behind the Angels’ huge bid? Well, first of all, there is a ton of ways to calculate Pujols’ expected future value, and each one results in a slightly different evaluation. Additionally, since more recent data are weighted more heavily to improve the accuracy of our projections, Pujols’ “down” (5.1 WAR) year has a large effect on Pujols’ initial value and every subsequent value. If Pujols can prove 2011 was a fluke and return to producing 7+ WAR per year, as he did in nine of his first ten Big League seasons, his projected value will see a big jump throughout the life of the contract. However, even if Pujols doesn’t produce a full $254M worth of value over the course of his stay in Los Angeles, there are still reasons to believe this contract could be a win for the Angels.

Pujols’ value off the field, especially to the Angels, is huge. Since purchasing the Angels in 2003, owner Arte Moreno has positioned the team as a representative of the city’s massive Latino population, to fantastic results in attendance and revenue. If there’s any player that can be leveraged to market to that population, it’s Pujols. The team just signed a 20-year, $3 Billion TV contract with FOX Sports. While the deal was signed before the Winter Meetings, it certainly provides the funds needed to make big Free Agency splashes, as the Angels did with Pujols and CJ Wilson. It’s also not outside of the realm of possibility that the Angels and FOX had an understanding that, once their deal was agreed upon, some of the Angels’ new revenue would be infused into their future Major League payroll to increase TV viewership and fan interest. Additionally, Pujols will contribute as a veteran presence and respected leader, assisting with the development of the team’s young players both during his contract and afterward, as his contract includes the stipulation that he will serve as a consultant to Moreno for a decade after his retirement.

Although Pujols is unlikely to produce at a high enough level to justify his contract based on his on-field value alone, he provides so much added value in his other attributes that it’s easy to see why the Angels felt comfortable offering this huge deal despite his advanced age. Pujols is a franchise-changing talent, and the Angels hope that his total value to the franchise will far exceed the dollars he’ll be paid over the next decade.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they’ve leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I’m not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA’s lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

Photo taken from Google Images

In what can only be described as stunning, the Angels shook the baseball world today in a way normally reserved only for earthquakes on Southern California’s notorious San Andreas Fault by announcing they have reached an agreement on a 10 year contract with first baseman Albert Pujols and a 5 year agreement with starting pitcher CJ Wilson. While the final numbers won’t be known for a few days, the Pujols deal is reported to be in excess of $254 million andWilson’s deal is reported to be worth in the neighborhood of $77 million. For a franchise that was advising GM candidates in interviews 6 weeks ago that they weren’t going to be major free agent players this year, this is earth shattering news. As an ardent MLB follower in multiple media forums (XM/Sirius Radio, ESPN, MLB Network, Twitter) I can tell you the Angels were mentioned as interested in Pujols, but never mentioned as serious players. Watching the reactions on the faces of people around MLB this morning – it appears this has really shocked most of the baseball world. If you’re an Angels fan you can’t help but love the wall to wall coverage the team is receiving by landing the best hitter on the planet. Only this kind of shocking news could have overshadowed the Miami Marlins spending spree (except perhaps the Marlins hideous new uniforms) this week at MLB’s winter meetings.

Perhaps an even bigger side to this is the fact that the Angels are reported to have only entered onto the Team Pujols radar as late as Tuesday. That means the Angels managed to close a deal for the best professional baseball hitter in under 48 hours. The Angels in recent years have been rebuffed by big name stars such as CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Carl Crawford. This time the Angels offered up the cash and terms needed to close the deal and got the guy they wanted as the anchor to their lineup and face of their franchise. By all appearances it appears the Angels offered at least $30 million more in cash than the Cardinals offered and the no trade clause that the Marlins refused to include.

The Angels also got CJ Wilson to sign at below market value for a lower dollar amount and fewer years than other offersWilsonwas said to have received. Interestingly Wilson (who is from Southern California and has a beach condo, a home inBeverly Hillsand grew up in near byHuntington Beach) said in a radio interview today that his first choice was the Dodgers, (more on that to follow) but they never even made an offer.Wilsonjoins an outstanding starting rotation that includes Jared Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana giving the Angels 4 starting pitchers who all pitched over 200 innings with ERA’s under 4.00 last season and should give them a chance to win in most every game in 2012.

Of lesser note is the Angels signing of LaTroy Hawkins to stabilize the back end of their bullpen. His presence and experience brings some stability to the later innings for the Angels bullpen. All the Angels appear to need is a dependable closer to meet their existing needs to make a run at the NL West and Texas Rangers 2 year hold on that division and the American League Pennant.

The question is where does all this leave the Angels as a baseball team and a competitor in theLos Angelesarea media and entertainment market? As a baseball team it sets the Angels up very well offensively with speedy players like Erik Aybar and Peter Bourjos hitting in front of Pujols. Mike Trumbo hit 29 home runs as a rookie and the Angels hope Kendrys Morales will be healthy after missing most of the past 2 seasons recovering from a broken ankle. Those 2 players combined with the presence of Pujols hitting in the 3 hole potentially gives the Angels formidable home run and RBI production in the middle of their lineup. In solid if unspectacular players like Howie Kendrick, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells the Angels now have a balanced lineup with people hitting in the correct lineup spots that maximize their talents and abilities. The only question mark today appears to be at closer where rookie Jordan Walden struggled with consistency in 2011. Hard to imagine the Angels would spend over $320 million for Pujols and Wilson and not address the need for a reliable closer. Then again they didn’t pursue Heath Bell before he signed with the Marlins either. They have interesting young pieces to offer in a trade (Trumbo, Mike Trout) for what they need and they have options via free agency in Ryan Madsen. Most experts place the addition ofWilsonat 5 wins above replacement (war) and Pujols war at 5 as well. That’s a composite of 10 games better than 2011 when the Angels won 86 games. 96 wins puts them in the playoffs, and with their outstanding rotation, solidified bullpen and diversified offense, the Angels become a very formidable team in the playoffs to be dealt with.

By all accounts the Angels have put together a dream team. In 2011 many thought the Boston Red Sox had done the same thing. I have a couple of thoughts to offer on that front. All of these players have excellent reputations as good clubhouse guys and hard workers. With Mike Scioscia as manager, don’t expect to hear things like Angels players running amuck eating fried chicken and drinking beer in the clubhouse during games. The Angels appear to have invested in good, solid people as well as terrific players. LaTroy Hawkins was quoted today on Sirius/XM: “I’ll pitch whatever inning the team needs me to pitch to give us the chance to win ball games”. That’s heady stuff for a 35 year old veteran pitcher.

It appears the Angels positioned themselves for this spending spree and a serious run at the World Series after new revenues they received as a result of a new television deal with Fox. The Angels timing of these signings positions them perfectly to have several seasons of winning, competitive baseball and to take advantage of their main rival’s (Dodgers) current dreadful ownership situation. All this comes at a time when the Dodgers 2012 payroll is believed to not be above $90 million. This is notable as even the Minnesota Twins (yes the Twins in the 14^th-15^th largest media market) will have a payroll at or exceeding $100 million next season. As a lifelong resident ofSouthern California, the perception out here is that the Angels have always been the younger nagging sibling to the big brother bully Dodgers. These moves make it clear that Owner Arte Moreno is serious about establishing the Angels brand by winning now and the next several years. One look at the most recent moves made by the Dodgers are in stark contrast (Mark Ellis, Chris Capuano, Matt Treanor, Aaron Harang, Josh Bard, Jerry Hairston Jr, etc) to the moves the Angels have just completed. In the long term the Angels have positioned themselves to take over the greater LA media market and brand name recognition for quite some time. Signing a marquee, superstar player like Albert Pujols to be the face of their franchise secures that the Angels will be relevant for years into the future as he chases World Series titles and MLB records in his Hall of Fame career.

The downside ? Obviously the 10 year length of the offer will be measured at the middle to end of the 10 years as much as the first 3-4. For a player in his early 30’s, it is risky in the long term. But the potential upside rewards are also very high. One thing the Pujols and Wilson signings do is immediately change the MLB landscape and especially the AL West. One thing the Angels with Pujols won’t be is irrelevant for a long time.

Image taken from Google Images

For the second straight season, the Rangers beat the Tampa Bay Rays to advance to the ALCS.  For the second straight season, their success was largely based on recent player acquisitions.

In 2010, Rangers GM Jon Daniels made several key moves in both the offseason and prior to the trade deadline, including the additions of Colby Lewis, Bengie Molina, Jeff Francoeur, and the biggest splash, Cliff Lee.  Lee and Lewis earned wins in five of Texas’ eight total postseason victories, and Molina and Francoeur had big hits that led to the club’s first ever American League pennant.

Despite the Rangers’ well-publicized failure to retain Lee for 2011 and beyond, the front office remained vigilant.  Daniels resisted the temptation to shell out the nine figures necessary to lure Carl Crawford to his home state, and opted to sign Adrian Beltre away from Boston for $85 million.  When an opportunity arose to jump in on a three way deal with the Angels and Blue Jays, Daniels pounced, landing Mike Napoli in exchange for reliever Frank Francisco.

While Napoli’s addition gave the offense a boost, the loss of Francisco, combined with the transition of Alexi Ogando from set up man to starter left a large hole in the bullpen.  Daniels responded.  The Rangers dealt for two of the top relief options available in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara in July.  Seemingly never satisfied, Daniels didn’t stop there, and dealt for lefty-specialist and former closer Mike Gonzalez.

Fast forward to the 2011 ALDS.  Napoli and Beltre hit six of the team’s eight total home runs and propelled Texas past Tampa Bay by razor thin margins.  The added bullpen depth gave Ron Washington favorable matchups to work with, and Texas held off the Comeback Kids.

It’s easy to look ahead to next year and expect the Rangers to once again have a good team.  It’s easy to wonder what will happen to them if C.J. Wilson departs as a free agent.  It’s also easy to imagine that the front office will respond accordingly, and make the right moves to send the Rangers deep into October again in 2012.  After all, possibly the best acquisition they have ever made was not a player.  The best move in franchise history may have been the chance they took in signing a young and inexperienced general manager named Jon Daniels.

While both National League Divisional Series will be going to a decisive Game 5 tonight, the Tigers and Rangers have each earned a berth to their league’s Championship Series. We’ll take a look at how these two teams match up to try to determine which club will represent the AL in the World Series.

Offense

Each of these clubs featured one of the more prolific offenses in the AL. The Rangers scored the third most runs of any AL team over the course of the season, while the Tigers scored the fourth most. However, the gap between them is larger than that statistic might indicate. The Rangers were the only team that was able to keep up with the big-money clubs in New York and Boston, as their 855 runs were only 20 behind the league-leading Sox. After the Rangers, there’s a large gap, as the Tigers scored 787 runs to finish fourth in the league. Advanced statistics suggest the gap between the teams’ offenses is a little smaller, as the Rangers’ wRC+ of 113 outpaced the Tigers by only 4%.

The Rangers’ offense got big production from some surprising places this year, while several of the players who carried the team to last season’s World Series have taken a step back. The team’s leader in offensive value was catcher Mike Napoli. Napoli spent 2010 splitting time behind the plate in Anaheim with Jeff Mathis. This offseason, Napoli momentarily went to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells, although the deal was more about losing Wells’ massive contract and less about actually acquiring Napoli from the Jays’ perspective. Napoli was sent packing once again almost immediately, this time in exchange for closer Frank Francisco. Napoli has taken advantage of his new opportunity in Texas, putting up a 5.6 WAR in only 113 games through an impressive 178 wRC+. Napoli hit 30 home runs in 432 plate appearances during the regular season. The next lowest PA total for a 30-homer hitter was 525, nearly 100 chances more than Napoli. So, if you picked Napoli to lead the AL in slugging this year, well… I don’t believe you.

I discussed Ian Kinsler in my AL MVP post, but he deserves another mention, as he’s been incredibly valuable on both sides of the ball and had the most prolific offensive year of his career by a long shot. His 7.7 WAR was the best mark on the club. Adrian Beltre’s 5.7 WAR led the team’s position players other than Kinsler, and his 134 wRC+ was second only to Napoli. In his first season in Texas, Beltre earned the first installment of his big multiyear deal signed last offseason and then some, putting up big offensive numbers and playing the premium defense at the hot corner we’ve come to expect from him. It’s rare that 4.2 WAR is considered a letdown, but Josh Hamilton produced less than half as much this season as his MVP campaign in 2010. While his numbers may not make him an MVP candidate again this year, he’s certainly a dangerous hitter. After a season of unrest between Michael Young and his front office that ended with him requesting a trade, Young gave the Rangers some serious reasons to retain him. Young gave the team positional flexibility and another big bat in their deep, potent lineup. The Rangers were the only team in baseball with five players who produced 20 or more runs above average on offense, and that’s not even counting Nelson Cruz, who had a big down year after a breakout 2010.

While the Rangers do have a better lineup, the Tigers aren’t exactly slouches. Led by Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have a number of big bats in the middle of their lineup. Alex Avila’s breakout season was interrupted by a deep slump down the stretch and during the divisional series. The Tigers will have to hope he can bounce back during this series and continue to cement himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. Victor Martinez, acquired last offseason to protect Cabrera, has been effective in that role, as his 130 wRC+ this season tied a career high. Delmon Young, acquired on a waiver trade, has been a force in Detroit’s lineup over the final stretch of the team’s regular season, and then set a franchise record with three ALDS home runs. However, he left Game 5 with an oblique strain after his first inning home run. If the injury is significant, Young could be done for the postseason. The Tigers will be hoping it’s only a minor strain. Then there’s Jhonny Peralta who led all AL shortstops with 120 wRC+. Peralta put up a career-high 5.2 WAR in an outstanding season.

Pitching

C.J. Wilson is the clear ace of the Rangers staff. Wilson will hit free agency this season, and it’s been speculated that they’re likely to lose him to another team. Wilson’s 3.29 SIERA was 10th in the AL. He’ll be followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison. Holland had something of a breakout this year, putting up 3.6 WAR. He was behind only Neftali Feliz among the Rangers’ top pitching prospects in 2009 before joining the big club, and may be beginning to realize some of that potential. Harrison also had a pretty big breakout campaign, putting up 4.2 WAR in 30 starts after never topping 0.7 in his previous three seasons in the majors. Harrison is one of two Rangers who successfully moved from the bullpen to the rotation this season, as Alexi Ogando’s success as a starter has been a big storyline for this team. Ogando has been moved back to the bullpen for the playoff. He performed admirably throughout the Rangers’ series against the Rays, culminating in a spotless eighth inning of game 4 setting up Neftali Feliz for the series ending save. Ogando and Harrison’s success may pave the way for Feliz to move to the rotation next season, but the Rangers won’t begin to discuss that decision in earnest until the end of their playoff run.

Across the diamond, Justin Verlander put together one of the best seasons from any pitcher in recent memory. His last start of the season gave him a shot at being the first 25 game winner since Bob Welch in 1990. Not much else needs to be said about the Triple Crown winner, other than the fact that the Tigers will pitch him as many times as they possibly can in this series and every time they do he will almost certainly give them a chance to win. Verlander will be followed in the rotation by Rick Porcello, as the Tigers used both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer in their game 5 victory. Porcello and Scherzer are both young guys with big stuff, but who haven’t seen the results to match their potential yet. Both put up 2.7 WAR this season, Fister may end up being the most important acquisition by any team at this year’s trade deadline, although Hunter Pence will certainly give him a run for his money. Fister has produced 5,6 WAR this season, including 2.4 and a 2.63 SIERA in 70.1 innings with Detroit. These starters will hand the ball to the Tigers’ impressive bullpen, led by Jose “Papa Grande” Valverde. Valverde certainly has a tendency to make the ninth inning a bit of an adventure, but he’s 51-for-51 in save opportunities this season after closing out the ALDS in New York.

Home field advantage, which the Rangers clinched over the Tigers on the final day of the season, could be a huge deciding factor in this series. In the bandbox in Arlington, the Rangers’ potent office could take over games and simply out-mash the Tigers. However, in the expansive Comerica Park, the Tigers’ pitching will have a decided advantage. I think the Tigers will win at least two of their three home games, and I will be very surprised if Justin Verlander doesn’t give his team a fairly good chance to win at least one of the games in Arlington. If the Rangers can take the other three games in Arlington, that would likely set up a Verlander vs. Wilson in game 7 in Texas for all the marbles. In a deciding game, with the team on his back, it’s hard to bet against the best pitcher in the American League, so I’m going to take the Tigers to advance in what should be a thoroughly entertaining series.

Those that read Moneyball remember it well. You had the case of Scott Hatteberg. Hatteberg moved from behind the dish to first base because he could no longer throw effectively. He could however draw walks and hit with moderate power. There were the collective drafts of Nick Swisher and Jeremy Brown. Swisher you have heard of. Brown you probably haven’t heard of.

The most important points people seemed to draw from the book was that OBP was the most important offensive statistic in baseball and baseball players aren’t supposed to look good in jeans. Okay, maybe they can look good in jeans, but it isn’t important for them to look good in jeans. So far, we may be describing a good baseball organization or a modeling agency with a new outlook on life. The release of the Moneyball movie will undoubtedly further these ideas and it is only a matter of time before the book is studied in English classes with the accompanying Spark Notes and Cliff Notes.

One of the ideas that seemed to be imbedded in the book was that fielding was not particularly important. People might get that impression by paying attention to the passages about Hatteberg. He had never played first before, but the Athletics just threw him in there. Naturally, that outlook would ignore the hard work that went into preparing him to be a passable first basemen and that he had possessed certain athletic skills that made such a switch a viable option.

In point of fact, Billy Beane wasn’t so much commenting on fielding as a valuable resource or not, but that it wasn’t undervalued in the market at the time. See, that was the whole point. At the time, OBP wasn’t valued in the market, so therefore most teams were not scouting or allocating resources for it. The A’s possessed both the willingness to look for it and the means to do so. That combination gave them an advantage in the market. However, that advantage quickly dried up as other teams began to discover that they could improve by focusing on that skill as well. Now, nearly every team in baseball (save for my hometown Astros) are spending valuable resources scouting for and developing this skill.

The point of Moneyball wasn’t about OBP or any other individual statistic. It was about the use of analytical research and thinking to find holes in the marketplace. While it might appear as if the A’s have run their course in Oakland, Beane is still up to his little bag of tricks. Unfortunately, he is a victim of his own success. Numerous organizations have closed the analytical gap, but he is using his forward thinking mind to find new holes in analysis and he may have found one for the time being.

A quick perusal of his lineup would make you scratch your head a little. Kevin Kouzmanoff doesn’t look like a solid OBP guy, but he traded for him anyway. David Dejesus doesn’t look like that guy either, but Beane brought him in just the same. Why would he completely cast off the OBP that made him such a rock star in the first place? Well, the answer may become clear in the following chart. (numbers since 2007)

The first question coming to mind is probably what these crazy numbers represent. Well, any good analyst is going to look at a number of sources to cover all of their bases. Here we have taken three of the top fielding rating systems in the sabermetric community. The first two come from John Dewan’s Fielding Bible. The first represents plays made above or below the average fielder at that position. The second represents runs saved above or below average. The third stat is similar to the second number but comes from Fangraphs. Finally, we get defensive wins above replacement from baseball-reference.com.

At this point, you are probably thinking, “that’s great Scott, but what does it have to do with the price of tea in China?” I don’t know what it has to do with the price of tea, but it is very important when we start to look at pitching numbers. Over that same time period, the Athletics have been brilliant in the amount of hits they give up on balls in play. People in the business call that BABIP. The fewer hits you give up the fewer base runners you have and therefore the fewer runs you surrender.

                        BABIP              LG AVG            Rank

2007                .296                  .302                  4

2008                .287                  .297                  3

2009                .302                  .298                  9

2010                .274                  .291                  1

2011                .279                  .286                  4

Total                .288                  .296                  1

The last number is pretty significant because it is an indication of the way Beane does business. On a big enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Also, on a big enough timeline you will get a much more accurate look at a player. The same is true of teams. We see individual variability among seasons, but when we project that data out over three or five years we see a lot more stability. The compound factor of superior fielding and a spacious ballpark and the effect is overwhelming. The Athletics had the fewest home runs per nine innings and the lowest home run per flyball rate during that same time period. That combination gave them the lowest ERA and second best FIP in the league during that span despite a walk rate slightly worse than league average. Add in a strikeout rate also slightly below average and you can see the Athletics’ strategy very clearly.

They combine seemingly average or inexperienced (read: cheap) pitching with superior fielding to put forth the appearance of a top-flight pitching staff. While there may not be a silver slugger among the lineup, the hope is that they will scratch out enough runs to be competitive. Is it a winning strategy? Well, that is debatable. The Athletics have finished .500 or better once since 2007, so the answer would appear to be no. Of course, that also assumes they have the resources to be competitive. A quick look at the average BABIP in the AL demonstrates that teams close the gap quicker than they used to. The A’s might not even be the best team in recent seasons at this particular strategy. They just seemed to go down that road first.

What will the next generation of forward thinking be? It’s anyone’s best guess, but you can bet that Billy Beane will be at the forefront. Who knows, maybe if he moves to a team with resources he might even get a chance to make one of these innovative strategies translate into playoff success instead of just competitiveness.