Photo taken from Google Images

Albert Pujols opens up about his decision to sign with the Angels, noting that he brings experience to a young club.

Photo taken from Google Images

In a twist reminiscent of last year’s Cliff Lee negotiations, what appeared to be a two-team race for the services of Albert Pujols between the Cardinals and Marlins was upset by the entrance of a third “Mystery Team”. Though many believed the Mystery Team was simply a tactic Pujols’ agent, Dan Lozano, was using to squeeze every possible dollar out of Pujols’ suitors, buzz around the mystery team rumor continued to grow. In the course of roughly 12 hours on Wednesday night and Thursday morning of the Winter Meetings, headlines such as “Pujols Deciding Between Cardinals, Marlins” and statements such as “Angels are definitely not in on Pujols” gave way to news that Pujols’ pact with the Angels was confirmed. Pujols will receive $254M over the next 10 years, with his contract expiring in his age 41 season.

Signing a once-in-a-generation player to a Free Agent deal is always a difficult proposition because, almost by definition, there are very few players who can be invoked as comparables to the 31 year old Pujols and used to determine his long-term value. In analyzing Pujols’ contract, I will look at the aging curves of players approaching Pujols’ caliber to estimate a reasonable expectation for Pujols’ future production and determine whether he is likely to produce enough value to be worth the value of his massive contract.

I used Baseball-Reference’s Play Index (a nifty tool, if you haven’t played around with it) to find all expansion-era (post-1961) players who produced >50 WAR in their first 11 seasons while playing an offense-heavy position (1B, 3B, LF, RF). In his first 11 seasons, Pujols has put up an incredible 89.1 WAR, but looking at players in this group who eclipsed that mammoth total would leave you with… well, Pujols. Though he’s an outlier among outliers, the rest of this group is populated with Hall of Famers and all-time greats, and I believe the aging curve established by these players will provide some insight into how Pujols may age. Overall, this group included 20 players, but I removed Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki, as both have just completed their 11th season in the Majors. I then looked at the average production among the players for each subsequent year after their 11th. Comparing this average production to the players’ three-year weighted (standard 5-4-3 weighting) average from their 9th to 11th seasons, we can determine how quickly a player’s contributions diminish as they age. Then, using Pujols’ 3-year averages as a starting point; we can depreciate his value based on these ratios and estimate his production in each year of his contract. Multiplying these values by $/WAR, with a 5%/year inflation rate added, gives us Pujols’ total expected value over the length of the contract. Got all that? Let’s dive in.

The 18 players included in the data set are: Barry Bonds, Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, Ricky Henderson, Jeff Bagwell, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Ron Santo, Dick Allen, George Brett, Bobby Bonds, Todd Helton, Eddie Murray, Sal Bando, Pete Rose, Scott Rolen, and Chipper Jones. Most of these players, unsurprisingly, were not able to finish their 21st seasons in the Majors, so players are not included in the average for any year after their retirement. This may understate the likelihood that Pujols retires before the end of his contract, but I don’t see this as a major risk, especially considering Pujols’ incredible durability. Pujols has played 1705 games in his first 11 seasons, the best total for any player included in this data. Several active players also have not completed their 21st seasons, which were treated similarly to players who retired. Regardless, it’s difficult to project much production as Pujols nears and passes age 40, so this data isn’t as important as trying to estimate production for the first few years of Pujols’ contract.

Overall, the players averaged almost exactly 5 WAR in their 9th through 11th MLB seasons. After this point, their production dropped off by an average of 15% per year until the end of their careers. In total, taking the average production from each year produces an expected 27 WAR for players’ 12th to 21st seasons, or 5.44 times the players’ three-year average baseline.

Click to see data from comparables

Pujols’ three-year weighted average is 6.9 WAR, so we’ll use that as our starting point. The projected first six years of Pujols’ contract, through the 2017 campaign, seem to be something like what the Angels have in mind in signing Pujols, as this model suggests he will be in the 4-6 WAR range each season. After 2017, however, Pujols’ expected value drops precipitously, as the model projects less than 10 WAR total over the final four seasons of Pujols’ deal. After multiplying these WAR values by the $/WAR inflation rates, Pujols’ total expected value over the course of the deal comes out to $222M, $32M short of the total value of his contract. Although this is a fairly rough calculation, it offers a clear indication that Pujols could have trouble living up to the total dollar value of his massive deal.

Click to see the model’s predictions for Pujols’ production

So, if that’s the case, what’s the reasoning behind the Angels’ huge bid? Well, first of all, there is a ton of ways to calculate Pujols’ expected future value, and each one results in a slightly different evaluation. Additionally, since more recent data are weighted more heavily to improve the accuracy of our projections, Pujols’ “down” (5.1 WAR) year has a large effect on Pujols’ initial value and every subsequent value. If Pujols can prove 2011 was a fluke and return to producing 7+ WAR per year, as he did in nine of his first ten Big League seasons, his projected value will see a big jump throughout the life of the contract. However, even if Pujols doesn’t produce a full $254M worth of value over the course of his stay in Los Angeles, there are still reasons to believe this contract could be a win for the Angels.

Pujols’ value off the field, especially to the Angels, is huge. Since purchasing the Angels in 2003, owner Arte Moreno has positioned the team as a representative of the city’s massive Latino population, to fantastic results in attendance and revenue. If there’s any player that can be leveraged to market to that population, it’s Pujols. The team just signed a 20-year, $3 Billion TV contract with FOX Sports. While the deal was signed before the Winter Meetings, it certainly provides the funds needed to make big Free Agency splashes, as the Angels did with Pujols and CJ Wilson. It’s also not outside of the realm of possibility that the Angels and FOX had an understanding that, once their deal was agreed upon, some of the Angels’ new revenue would be infused into their future Major League payroll to increase TV viewership and fan interest. Additionally, Pujols will contribute as a veteran presence and respected leader, assisting with the development of the team’s young players both during his contract and afterward, as his contract includes the stipulation that he will serve as a consultant to Moreno for a decade after his retirement.

Although Pujols is unlikely to produce at a high enough level to justify his contract based on his on-field value alone, he provides so much added value in his other attributes that it’s easy to see why the Angels felt comfortable offering this huge deal despite his advanced age. Pujols is a franchise-changing talent, and the Angels hope that his total value to the franchise will far exceed the dollars he’ll be paid over the next decade.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they’ve leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I’m not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA’s lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

Photo taken from Google Images

In what can only be described as stunning, the Angels shook the baseball world today in a way normally reserved only for earthquakes on Southern California’s notorious San Andreas Fault by announcing they have reached an agreement on a 10 year contract with first baseman Albert Pujols and a 5 year agreement with starting pitcher CJ Wilson. While the final numbers won’t be known for a few days, the Pujols deal is reported to be in excess of $254 million andWilson’s deal is reported to be worth in the neighborhood of $77 million. For a franchise that was advising GM candidates in interviews 6 weeks ago that they weren’t going to be major free agent players this year, this is earth shattering news. As an ardent MLB follower in multiple media forums (XM/Sirius Radio, ESPN, MLB Network, Twitter) I can tell you the Angels were mentioned as interested in Pujols, but never mentioned as serious players. Watching the reactions on the faces of people around MLB this morning – it appears this has really shocked most of the baseball world. If you’re an Angels fan you can’t help but love the wall to wall coverage the team is receiving by landing the best hitter on the planet. Only this kind of shocking news could have overshadowed the Miami Marlins spending spree (except perhaps the Marlins hideous new uniforms) this week at MLB’s winter meetings.

Perhaps an even bigger side to this is the fact that the Angels are reported to have only entered onto the Team Pujols radar as late as Tuesday. That means the Angels managed to close a deal for the best professional baseball hitter in under 48 hours. The Angels in recent years have been rebuffed by big name stars such as CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Carl Crawford. This time the Angels offered up the cash and terms needed to close the deal and got the guy they wanted as the anchor to their lineup and face of their franchise. By all appearances it appears the Angels offered at least $30 million more in cash than the Cardinals offered and the no trade clause that the Marlins refused to include.

The Angels also got CJ Wilson to sign at below market value for a lower dollar amount and fewer years than other offersWilsonwas said to have received. Interestingly Wilson (who is from Southern California and has a beach condo, a home inBeverly Hillsand grew up in near byHuntington Beach) said in a radio interview today that his first choice was the Dodgers, (more on that to follow) but they never even made an offer.Wilsonjoins an outstanding starting rotation that includes Jared Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana giving the Angels 4 starting pitchers who all pitched over 200 innings with ERA’s under 4.00 last season and should give them a chance to win in most every game in 2012.

Of lesser note is the Angels signing of LaTroy Hawkins to stabilize the back end of their bullpen. His presence and experience brings some stability to the later innings for the Angels bullpen. All the Angels appear to need is a dependable closer to meet their existing needs to make a run at the NL West and Texas Rangers 2 year hold on that division and the American League Pennant.

The question is where does all this leave the Angels as a baseball team and a competitor in theLos Angelesarea media and entertainment market? As a baseball team it sets the Angels up very well offensively with speedy players like Erik Aybar and Peter Bourjos hitting in front of Pujols. Mike Trumbo hit 29 home runs as a rookie and the Angels hope Kendrys Morales will be healthy after missing most of the past 2 seasons recovering from a broken ankle. Those 2 players combined with the presence of Pujols hitting in the 3 hole potentially gives the Angels formidable home run and RBI production in the middle of their lineup. In solid if unspectacular players like Howie Kendrick, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells the Angels now have a balanced lineup with people hitting in the correct lineup spots that maximize their talents and abilities. The only question mark today appears to be at closer where rookie Jordan Walden struggled with consistency in 2011. Hard to imagine the Angels would spend over $320 million for Pujols and Wilson and not address the need for a reliable closer. Then again they didn’t pursue Heath Bell before he signed with the Marlins either. They have interesting young pieces to offer in a trade (Trumbo, Mike Trout) for what they need and they have options via free agency in Ryan Madsen. Most experts place the addition ofWilsonat 5 wins above replacement (war) and Pujols war at 5 as well. That’s a composite of 10 games better than 2011 when the Angels won 86 games. 96 wins puts them in the playoffs, and with their outstanding rotation, solidified bullpen and diversified offense, the Angels become a very formidable team in the playoffs to be dealt with.

By all accounts the Angels have put together a dream team. In 2011 many thought the Boston Red Sox had done the same thing. I have a couple of thoughts to offer on that front. All of these players have excellent reputations as good clubhouse guys and hard workers. With Mike Scioscia as manager, don’t expect to hear things like Angels players running amuck eating fried chicken and drinking beer in the clubhouse during games. The Angels appear to have invested in good, solid people as well as terrific players. LaTroy Hawkins was quoted today on Sirius/XM: “I’ll pitch whatever inning the team needs me to pitch to give us the chance to win ball games”. That’s heady stuff for a 35 year old veteran pitcher.

It appears the Angels positioned themselves for this spending spree and a serious run at the World Series after new revenues they received as a result of a new television deal with Fox. The Angels timing of these signings positions them perfectly to have several seasons of winning, competitive baseball and to take advantage of their main rival’s (Dodgers) current dreadful ownership situation. All this comes at a time when the Dodgers 2012 payroll is believed to not be above $90 million. This is notable as even the Minnesota Twins (yes the Twins in the 14^th-15^th largest media market) will have a payroll at or exceeding $100 million next season. As a lifelong resident ofSouthern California, the perception out here is that the Angels have always been the younger nagging sibling to the big brother bully Dodgers. These moves make it clear that Owner Arte Moreno is serious about establishing the Angels brand by winning now and the next several years. One look at the most recent moves made by the Dodgers are in stark contrast (Mark Ellis, Chris Capuano, Matt Treanor, Aaron Harang, Josh Bard, Jerry Hairston Jr, etc) to the moves the Angels have just completed. In the long term the Angels have positioned themselves to take over the greater LA media market and brand name recognition for quite some time. Signing a marquee, superstar player like Albert Pujols to be the face of their franchise secures that the Angels will be relevant for years into the future as he chases World Series titles and MLB records in his Hall of Fame career.

The downside ? Obviously the 10 year length of the offer will be measured at the middle to end of the 10 years as much as the first 3-4. For a player in his early 30’s, it is risky in the long term. But the potential upside rewards are also very high. One thing the Pujols and Wilson signings do is immediately change the MLB landscape and especially the AL West. One thing the Angels with Pujols won’t be is irrelevant for a long time.

Photo taken from Google Images c/o Zimbio

This comes after Weaver’s absolute gem last Sunday, when he limited the Blue Jays’ lineup to just one run on four hits in 7 2/3 innings. Weaver walked four and fanned a career-high 15.

The first pitcher to four wins this season, Weaver now boasts a 1.30 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, and leads the majors in strikeouts (31), while issuing just nine walks in 27 2/3 innings.

The 28-year-old is making a strong case to be considered as a top-10 starting pitcher, and here’s why:

After establishing himself as a first-half pitcher in each of his first four major league seasons, Jered Weaver dominated all of 2010, posting career-best totals in innings (224 1/3), K/9 (9.35) and BB/9 (2.17).

In fact, the advanced stats suggest Weaver was a completely different pitcher in 2010. Consider the following:

Strikeout Rate

• 2008: 7.74
• 2009: 7.42
• 2010: 9.35

Walk Rate

• 2008: 2.75
• 2009: 2.82
• 2010: 2.17

ERA

• 2008: 4.33
• 2009: 3.75
• 2010: 3.01

WHIP

• 2008: 1.28
• 2009: 1.24
• 2010: 1.07

Batting Average Against

• 2008: .253
• 2009: .241
• 2010: .220

So what was the difference between last year compared to ‘08 and ‘09? Was it Luck? 

Nope.

• 2010 BABIP: .276 (career .283)
• 2010 LOB rate: 75.7 percent (career .75.5 percent)
• 2010 HR/FB rate: 7.8 percent (career 7.9 percent)

Heck, even Weaver’s FIP (3.06) and xFIP (3.51) suggest his 2010 campaign was legit.

There real difference appears to be in the evolution of his fastball and curveball, checking in at 13.0 and 9.7 runs above average, respectively. When combined with his above-average slider (3.1 runs above average) and changeup (8.4 runs above average), Weaver’s pitching repertoire is one of the most dynamic  in the majors.

This, in turn, led to elite totals in the ‘that’s nasty’ pitching categories:

• Contact rate: 75.4 percent (6th)
• Zone contact rate: 79.2 percent (1st)
• Swinging strike rate: 11.2 percent (4th)
• O-swing rate: 33.5 percent (7th)

Expect the Angels’ ace to continue his dominance on his way to solidifying his status as a top-10 pitcher.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders: 

• Buy or Sell Edwin Jackson’s Hot Start?
• How Good is Cubs’ Starlin Castro?
• Week 1 Closer’s Corner: Axford, Lyon, Burnett & More
• 2011 All-Breakout Team
• The Top 10 Rookies in 2011
• 2011 Big Board: The Top 100 Players
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011

Mike Scioscia Photo by Icon SMI

The longest name in sports franchise history has suffered a large share of personnel misfortunes due to a variety of causes on and off the diamond, yet they are still consistently expected not only to contend, but to win the American League West.  Why?   Two words:

Mike Scioscia.
Owning two World Series rings as a player (1981 and 1988) and another as Halo manager (2002), it can be argued that he is the best skipper in a dugout today.  He has always been a man of loyalty, giving it and deserving it.  He has more to do with the look of The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in more aspects than any other field commander.  After years of Dodger Blue, he removed any shade of that color from his new teams’ redesign.  Front office decisions go through him.  A players’ manager, he takes the blame for loses and credits his team for all accomplishments.  This is a confidently centered man; a man players want to play for.
In recent years, they have been the one team that could tame the Titans of the East and of budgets–eliminating both Yankees and Red Sox in October.  However this year, they lost in New York and rejuvenated the Fenway faithful falling to a four game sweep.  But Playoff Baseball is four months away.
The tragic death of young phenom pitcher, Nick Adenhart early last season still echoes not only in the clubhouse, but the actual pitching progress of future rotations and call-ups.  Dropping K-Rod to the Mets last year didn’t hurt as much as the absence of John Lackey gone to Boston as in 2010.
‘Big Daddy Vladdy,’ Vladimir Guerrero is now hitting well for division rival Rangers, but this Memorial Day weekend saw Scioscia’s team clean the clock of their own clean-up hitter, Kendry Morales as he pounced on home plate following his walk-off Grand Slam Saturday afternoon, May 29th.  At this writing, the surgery for his broken leg must wait a week for the swelling to go down.  It’s possible that he might see action before season’s end in September.
“It’s sickening to lose a player in the way that we lost Kendry,”  Skipper Scioscia said.  Roughly 24 hours later, the crowd in Anaheim saw the adjustment as Howard Kendrick crossed home plate after a walk-off three run blast.  Teammates stayed out of his made plenty of room and hugged lightly with little bunny hops.  Outfielder Torii Hunter was only half joking about a three jump maximum.

Hideki Matsui Photo by Icon SMI

This years’ big acquisition, 2009 Yankee WS MVP Hideki Matsui has shown flashes in red, but hasn’t filled Brian Cashman with regret.  He did homer Sunday in Morales’ vacated 4 hole, but isn’t guaranteed that place in the batting order.
Rumors swirl that former White Sox slugger, Jermaine Dye could finally find a job in Orange County.  Farmhands are less likely.  General Manager Tony Reagins did call up Scioscia’s pick Robb Quinlan Sunday, but called Mark Trumbo, a .275 hitter with 11 roundtrippers in only 47 games: “an option, but not our first option,” surmising that more time in Salt Lake will actually sweeten his swing.
The division itself is part of the Angels’ story.  Seattle was poised in the spring to resurface, but dwells in the cellar.  Billy Beane’s ‘Moneyball’ A’s surprise possibly everyone but Billy, leading the AL West and second place Texas by a half game.  Still, Halo fans can take heart.  This is a winnable division and despite all obstacles, they are still picked to win it.
I wouldn’t advise betting against Mike Scioscia.

The best part about this video is listening to Boston’s TV broadcasters, Jerry Remy (former 2B for the Sox and Angels) and Don Orsillo recap the events that took place on the play! Just listen…

The Angels are headed to the ALCS, after they finally defeat their traditional post season nemesis, the Boston Red Sox.  Bet the house on it.

Granted, it’s hard to come up with a solid baseball-based argument to support that bold statement.  The Red Sox have owned the Angels in the post season since Dave Henderson broke my heart with his dramatic home run in the ’86 ALCS.  Since that home run, the Red Sox have swept the Angels out of the post season in 2004 and 2007, and just plain embarrassed them in 2008.

But I feel it in my bones… this is the year all that changes.  And while I’d be foolish to even attempt to support it with any game related facts, here are the 10 reasons why I feel so strongly:

1) I’m the Angel correspondent.  If I don’t believe that, who will?

2) Paul Byrd – I hear he’s a lovely guy, but his teams (2004 Braves, 2005 Angels, 2007 Indians, 2008 Red Sox) have all been post season losers.  That streak continues in 2009.  BTW, Byrd’s nickname is “Frasier”, because of his resemblance to TV’s Kelsey Grammer….

3) Tom Werner – Coincidentally, Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner is an Executive Producer of Kelsey Grammer‘s new ABC series, “Hank.”  I’ve seen “Hank”, and it’s not good.  I believe the struggling “Hank” will distract Werner from his important day-to-day minority shareholder duties, and the ensuing result will be an early post season exit for the Sox.

4) Jered Weaver‘s Haircut - Granted Weaver has only been a .500 pitcher since he trimmed his locks in early August, but there’s no questioning that he’s a better looking man because of it, and as he adjusts to the enhanced confidence that results from that, he will propel the Angels pitching staff past the Red Sox.

5) Barack Obama – When Boston defeated the Angels in 1986, 2004, 2007 and 2008, the country was lead by Republican Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.  This year, the Angels are facing the Red Sox for the first time under a Democratic administration, which will lead to a more liberal amount of run scoring and an Angel series victory.

6) My season tickets – I’m not presumptuous enough to believe that my seat location has anything to do with how the Angels perform on the field, but the numbers speak for themselves.  For 35 years, my family has had season tickets behind the visiting dugout…. and for 35 years, the Angels have come up empty against the Red Sox.   This year, in search of shade, we’ve moved behind the Angels dugout, and concurrently, the Angels are poised to not only win this year’s playoffs, but begin a 35 year period of post season dominance.

7) Regular season dominance - In 2008, the Angels dominated the season series vs. the Red Sox (8-1), only to struggle in the playoffs and lose 3-1.  This regular season, the Angels struggled, coming out ahead (5-4), so logic would follow that they will dominate the playoff series.

Casey Kotchman – In 2008, the Angels traded Kotchman for Mark Teixeira.  The Red Sox traded Adam LaRoche for Kotchman.  The Angels clearly got the better of these two transactions, and thus will clearly get the better of the Red Sox in the post season.  If you’re not buying that logic… how about, in 2008, the Angels traded Kotchman and were cursed in the post season and lost in 4 games.  In 2009, the Red Sox traded for Kotchman, and will also be cursed in the post season.

9) Last Links to 2002 – With Scott Shields on the 60 Day DL after season-ending knee surgery, the Angels have only 2 players on the current roster who played on the 2002 Championship Team – John Lackey and Chone Figgins.  Both players are free agents … and attractive free agents whose return to Anaheim is anything but certain.  So this playoff drive is potentially the last to be lead by a player with a link to the World Series team, and a sentimental reason to motivate the current roster.  But there’s no more sentimental motivation for the Angels than….

10) Nick Adenhart – The Red Sox were the first team the Angels played after the tragic death of their young teammate, and with emotions already raw, they were further angered as the Sox’s Josh Beckett threw at the head of their team leader Torii Hunter.  The team has played with Adenhart’s inspiration all season, and they’ll be easily reminded of Beckett’s head hunting and the previous playoff embarrassments.  This series will test the character of the Angels… and they will finally shake the proverbial monkey off their backs and rally to face the Yankees in the 2009 ALCS.

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Drew Brown is a longtime Angel season ticket holder who blogs about the Angels at AngelsBaseballOnIce.com You can follow him on Twitter @angelsbaseball

Another trade deadline passed, another swirl of rumors connecting the Angels to nearly every premium player out there, and disappointingly but not unexpectedly – another stretch run in which the Angels have decided to sit on their hands and stand pat.

Last year’s acquisition of Mark Teixiera not withstanding, the Angels have been quiet more often than not on deadline day, despite owner Arte Moreno’s demonstrated willingness to take on payroll.

But while their annual post-season rivals in Boston and New York are constantly tinkering with their rosters, the Angels have demonstrated a cautious reluctance to part with their own prospects.   So season after season, the Angels have clung onto highly touted prospects like Dallas McPherson, Jeff Mathis, Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick, only to see their values plummet as they’ve failed to live up to lofty expectations.

To get over the post-season hump that’s plagued the Angels since winning it all in 2002, is it necessary for them to be more aggressive…. and more willing to part with their prized prospects?

The Angels success this season -  while playing significant stretches without their two best hitters and two best pitchers, and suffering the tragic death of teammate Nick Adenhart – speaks to the depth of talent in the organization.

But while top tier prospects Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood have struggled, lower ceiling organizational products like Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales and lower-budget acquisitions like Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis have lead the team to within percentage points of the best record in baseball.

The departure of Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez and Jon Garland provided a bounty of 2009 draft choices – 5 of the top 48 picks -  with which to re-stock the system.  And with Morales putting up similar numbers to Teixiera at a fraction of the cost, they could have afforded to add a difference maker like Roy Halladay – even at the exorbitant price that JP Ricciardi was reported to be asking.

Halladay presented an interesting opportunity for the Angels.  With Toronto’s expressed preference to trade him outside the division, despite Boston’s last minute aggressive pitch – rare is the opportunity to acquire a highly coveted player that the Angels have a leg up on the Yankees and Red Sox.  Last season, they couldn’t compete for Teixiera or Sabathia.  If Halladay gets to the free agent market after 2010, the Angels will be bidding against two teams with much deeper pockets.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Combined with the pending free-agency of Angels’ ace John Lackey, the Angels had a pressing need to add a front line arm for the playoff push and beyond – but apparently not enough for Reagins to pull the trigger.

While it’s hard to come down too hard on Reagins for not making a deal when we don’t know what was being asked of him, he and his predecessor Bill Stoneman have a clearly demonstrated preference for the free agency pool, where they’ve had more hits than misses.  But you could probably count the number of Angel in-season moves this decade on one-hand.  This is a team built to win in the regular season… not necessarily the post season.

The success of the team in the absence of key contributors has only reinforced the high opinion of the Angels talent evaluation skills.  Teixeira leaves and they don’t miss a beat with Morales.  Kendrick disappoints and Maicer Izturis carries the load and a plus .300 average.  The game turns it’s back on Bobby Abreu, and the Angels get the free agency deal of the year – and an OBP setting example that has influenced the offensive approach of the entire team.  The historically impatient Angels are #2 in OBP in all of baseball… percentage points behind the Yankees.   The top 3 pitchers go down with injuries, and Matt Palmer comes from out of nowhere to win his first 6 games consecutively.

With that kind of track record in evaluating talent, Reagins and company can afford to be a little bolder in the future when opportunities occur at the deadline.

This is my first guest post for BaseballReflections.com . Peter Schiller has assembled a really unique and informative baseball site by attracting an eclectic group of bloggers, and I’m grateful to be a part of it.

The Angels no doubt have the blue print for making the playoffs memorized. The only problem is that in the past few seasons, when they get there, they are unable to get out of the Divisional round where they were the victim of the Boston Red Sox this season in just four games. General manager Tony Reagins has to be frustrated with the recent lack of success in the post season because it seems like he has all of the pieces for a deep October run during the season. With the Angels leading the major leagues with 100 wins in 2008, it seemed like they were at least destined for the ALCS, but the Sox had too much October experience for them to take down. The team received the most nation-wide press during the season for the record breaking performance of closer Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod, who is currently a free agent, broke the major league record with 62 saves. Obviously, to win 100 games, the team was doing things right in all aspects of the game. The interesting thing will be to see how they decide to fine tune an already deep team this off season.

Holes to Fill

Depending on what the team decides to do with their own free agent outfielders, they will probably have to look for some talent in that area. There doesn’t seem to be any talent at the AAA level that would be ready to come up to compete for an outfield position just yet, so that probably means they will have to bring in at least one player for a corner outfield position (probably left field) that wasn’t on the team last season. The Angels may have an upper hand in this area because many teams are going to be looking for corner outfielders this off season (perhaps the biggest position besides pitchers), but the Halos have shown that they are willing to spend money to get talent, evidenced by their sixth ranked $119.2 million payroll last season. Adding another arm to the starting rotation wouldn’t hurt either. While their pitching was one of the best in the majors last season, some depth at this spot has never hurt anyone. It currently looks like they are probably not going to resign K-Rod unless he is willing to take some sort of home town discount. This would mean that the Angels will have the position of closer open. Spending on closers (and other relievers) on the open market is always risky business as they often have one good year and one off year due to their usage. Due to this fact, the team may try to fill the closer roll internally as they have a few arms they believe may be able to take the spot.

Free Agents

At the beginning of the off season, the Angels had eight players who could have entered free agency including outfielders Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson and Jaun Rivera, pitchers Rodriguez, John Lackey and Jon Garland and first baseman Mark Teixeira. The Angels have already made the decisions on some of these players as they have picked up the 2009 club options for Guerrero and Lackey, while also declining the option on Anderson. Due to this fact, it is almost a lock that Anderson will not be back for this Los Angeles team next season (leaving the hole in left field mentioned earlier). Teixeira is no doubt their number one in house priority this off season. A lot of what they do during the rest of the off season will depend on whether or not they are able to work out a deal with the first baseman who they acquired at the trade deadline. The team has made some serious bids to free agent pitcher CC Sabathia and since he seems to want to play on the west coast, they have a serious shot of landing him (written pre-signing with the Yankees).

The Outlook

It is very realistic to see the Angels repeating as division winners once again, especially if they are able to land Teixeira and Sabathia in the off season. Whether these two players would give them the push that they have recently been lacking in the post season is yet to be seen (especially due to the fact that Sabathia has been less than stellar during the past two post seasons with the Indians and Brewers). Manager Mike Scioscia is probably one of the more respectable managers in the game at this point and has shown that he knows how to handle having a lot of big egos on his team during the 162 game season.

The Halos will probably look for takers for outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. during the off season, which would open up yet another spot in the outfield. Even though Matthews is a quality player and has three years left on his current deal, he has not been able to get along with the team’s management since coming to Anaheim as a free agent two seasons ago and all of this makes him expandable at the right price. If they are able to pick-up some extra offense this off season, they could realistically improve on their runs scored ranking which was tenth in 2008 at 765. With all of the fire power the team has, it’s some what surprising that it was not higher than that, although it did receive a jump at mid-season when Teixeira was acquired from the Braves. Part of that low scoring total could have been the fact that they really didn’t need to score a whole lot because their starting pitching was so stellar throughout the season with Lackey and youngster Ervin Santana both making bids for the Cy Young Award. Winning 100 games is a tough thing to do, and even tougher to repeat, but if the Angels are willing to spend the money to land the free agents they seem to be eying this off season, having a goal of exceeding 100 regular season wins would not seem out of the ordinary.

Bill Jordan is a contributing writer to BaseballReflections.com and can be reached by e-mail at billjordaniv@yahoo.com.