Photo borrowed from the Bronx Baseball Daily via Google Images

Free agency has eliminated some of the luster around the post-season awards already. The post-season awards used to be the only thing a baseball fan had to look forward to this time of year. Now, they are competing with the news about the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Heck, even my hometown Astros are rumored to be in on that. The Gold Glove awards are the first set of awards to go out. Even without free agency, the Gold Glove awards have always been the least relevant. Not only do chicks dig the long ball, but guys dig giving awards to people who actually deserve them.

Managers and coaches vote for these awards and they see players a maximum of 18 times a season. This is just one reason why players tend to repeat as winners. Another big reason is what I would call the gap between traditional numbers and advanced numbers. Traditional coaches and managers still focus on errors and if they are really sophisticated, putouts, assists, and total chances. There has been an explosion in fielding analysis over the last decade. The most exciting of which is The Fielding Bible by John Dewan. Dewan rates players by the number of plays they should make. This depends on the balls hit in their zone and the probability that other players at that position would make the play. He has released two books on the subject and now has annual awards of his own. Below are the awards at each position based solely on his analysis. The winner of the Gold Glove Award will appear to the right. We will start with the American League

1B Daric Barton. . . . . . .+27 1B Mark Teixeira. . . . .-1
2B Orlando Hudson. . . .+22 2B Robinson Cano. . . .+7
3B Jose Lopez. . . . . . . . .+25 3B Evan Longoria. . . .+17
SS Alexei Ramirez. . . . . .+20 SS Derek Jeter. . . . . . .-17
LF Carl Crawford. . . .. ..+22 OF Ichiro Suzuki. . . . ..+15
CF Austin Jackson. . . . ..+33 OF Carl Crawford. . . ..+22
RF Ichiro Suzuki. . . . . . .+15 OF Franklin Guitterez.+20

To be perfectly fair to the voters, they only picked one truly bad fielder. Big Tex has been good in the past, but his selection highlights the problem. He was good in the past, but not good this season. Guitterez is another example of this even though he was still very good. Substitute Austin Jackson and these selections almost seem reasonable. Why they continue to select Jeter is anyone’s best guess. Novice fans will look back in ten or twenty years and think Jeter was a good defensive shortstop. He has only been above average on a couple of occasions. 2010 was not one of those occasions. You will notice that catchers were not included. The Fielding Bible system doesn’t rank them. Joe Mauer won this year in the American League. I am just assuming that a rigorous study of the position will point the fingers at someone else. Now, we can move onto the National League.

1B Albert Pujols. . . . . . . . ..+6 1B Albert Pujols. . . . . . .+6
2B Chase Utley. . . . . . . . .+16 2B Brandon Phillips. . . .+3
3B Chase Headley. . . . . ..+25 3B Scott Rolen. . . . . . . .+3
SS Brendan Ryan. . . . . . ..+31 SS Troy Tulowitzky. . ..+16
LF Matt Holliday. . . . . . . .+14 OF Michael Bourn. . . .+23
CF Michael Bourn. . . . . . .+23 OF Shane Victorino. . …+3
RF Jay Bruce. . . . . . . . . . ..+25 OF Carlos Gonzalez. . ….-5

Let’s give the voters for the NL some credit. They voted for only one below average fielder and that was Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez was above average in left field and he remained there all season he might have been a decent selection. The rest could generally be called good fielders, but they were the kind of fielders that coasted on reputation. Scott Rolen immediately comes to mind here. Troy Tulowitzky was legitimately second and missed a good chunk of time. In a full season he might have eclipsed Ryan, but I tend to doubt that. Yet, when you look at a year when the voters get about a third of the selections right and call it a good year it is time to put that baby to bed.

Catcher: Catcher’s defense is by far the toughest to quantify, as there really isn’t a metric for it, and you pretty much have to go exclusively by stats like runners thrown out, passed balls, and dare I say, fielding percentage.

Deserving Winner: Jason Varitek

Reasoning: Highest RF/9 (range factor per game) among AL catchers by far, and tied for the highest fielding percentage with Gerald Laird.

Who I Expect to Win: Jason Varitek or Joe Mauer

Reasoning: If there’s one position that’s going to be decided by reputation, it’s going to be catcher, and they both have reputations as excellent defensive catchers, whether it’s true or not.

First Base:

Deserving Winner: Kendry Morales

Reasoning: He has far superior range to any other AL first baseman at 4.6 range runs above average (Miguel Cabrera has the 2nd most with 1.6), and the highest UZR at 4.8.

Who I Expect to Win: Mark Teixeira

Reasoning: Despite the fact that he’s actually a below average defensive first baseman with hardly any range, everyone seems to be under the impression that he’s a wizard in the field. If I had to guess, I’d guess that it’s because of his high fielding percentage – and he really doesn’t make very many errors, so I’ve gotta give him that.

Second Base:

Deserving Winner: Placido Polanco

Reasoning: It’s a tough call between him and Dustin Pedroia, but his above average range combined with the fact that he seldom makes errors pushes him to the top. His 11.4 UZR ranks 1st among all second baseman, and he’s above average at pretty much every aspect of fielding.

Who I Expect to Win: Dustin Pedroia

Reasoning: He’s on the Red Sox.

Third Base:

Deserving Winner: Evan Longoria

Reasoning: It really isn’t very close – it would probably be Adrian Beltre, but because of the time he’s spent on the DL this season, it needs to go to Longoria. Longoria is an excellent young defensive third baseman, who has a great arm, great range, and doesn’t make too many errors.

Who I Expect to Win: Evan Longoria

Reasoning: I actually think they’ll get this one right – He looks good from pretty much every angle, whether you’re into advanced stats, classic stats, or reputation.

Shortstop:

Deserving Winner: Elvis Andrus

Reasoning: He’s got ridiculous range, and makes some oustanding plays over there in Texas. 10.1 UZR, too. The next Omar, perhaps?

Who I Expect to Win: Derek Jeter

Reasoning: Do I really have to explain it? He’s actually been above average defensively this year, so when it does happen it won’t be as much of a travesty as it would have been, say, last season, but he still isn’t the most deserving candidate.

Left Field:

Deserving Winner: David Dejesus

Reasoning: He has plus range, a great arm, and he hasn’t made an error all year. He’s a great outfielder, pretty much any way you look at it.

Who I Expect to Win: David Dejesus or Carl Crawford

Reasoning: I’m not sure which way the voters will go on this one, but unless they choose Johnny Damon or Jason Bay, they really can’t go wrong. Even Juan Rivera would be an alright choice.

Center Field:

Deserving Winner: Franklin Gutierrez

Reasoning: He’s having one of the best defensive seasons of all time – his range is absolutely off the charts, at 27.6 runs above average, and his UZR is absolutely jaw-dropping at 27.1. For some perspective, BJ Upton comes in behind him at 10.5.

Who I Expect to Win: Someone Else

Reasoning: It doesn’t matter who they choose – unless it’s Gutierrez, they’ve made a huge mistake. I’m not sure what’s going to happen, but no one is even close to as deserving as Franklin Gutierrez.

Right Field:

Deserving Winner: Nelson Cruz

Reasoning: He sure has some good range for a big guy. He’s just another good all-around defensive outfielder – good range, good arm, and he doesn’t make a lot of errors. His 13.0 UZR is also first among AL right fielders.

Pitcher: Just like catcher, this one is really hard to quantify, so I’ll have to pretty much base it on fielding percentage and RF/9.

Deserving Winner: Mark Buehrle

Reasoning: Best RF/9 among AL pitchers, and only 1 error on the year.

Who I Expect to Win: Mark Buehrle

Reasoning: I’m pretty sure he’s also got a reputation as a great defensive player, so there you go.

Last week, Bill announced his picks for the AL Gold Glove Awards. MLB announced the official list yesterday afternoon, lets see how he did:

Pitcher: the official winner was Yankees starter Mike Mussina (another older player as the NL choose Greg Maddux), but Bill choose the White Sox Mark Buehrle.

Catcher: the official winner and Bill’s choice were the same, the Twins Joe Mauer. This one was probably a no brainer!

First Base: the official winner was the Rays Carlos Pena,  but Bill choose Justin Morneau of the Twins . Pena was; however, Bill’s runner up for the award at this position.

Second Base: the official winner and Bill’s choice were the same, the Red Sox Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia won the 2007 Rookie of the Year award, won a World Series with the Sox last year also and is in the running, some say, for this years MVP. I doubt he’ll win that, but he will get some votes!

Third Base: the official winner was the Mariners Adrian Beltre, but Bill choose the Yankees Alex Rodriguez. Beltre was Bill’s third choice so he wasn’t that far off now was he?!

ShortStop: the official winner and Bill’s choice were the same the Rangers Michael Young. Another possible no brainer, although the White Sox Orlando Cabrera could have been in the running here to challenge Young.

Outfielders: the official winner and Bill’s choice were the same for two of the three Center fielders, the Indians Grady Sizemore and the Angels Torii Hunter, but
the third slot went to the Mariners Ichiro Suzuki and Bill choose Orioles rookie Adam Jones. Personally, I can’t believe that Ichiro wasn’t on Bill’s list, but then again, maybe this was one of those name recognition selections on both my behalf and MLB‘s or the fact that he played both RF and CF in 2008 might have been why he fell off of Bill’s list.

The only difference is Bill choose a Left and Right Fielders which is how I think the award should be awarded. As a reminder, Bill choose the Mariners Raul Ibanez (who ESPN’s Peter Gammons lists as one of the nicest people in the game on his blog recently) for LF and the Orioles Nick Markakis in RF.

The National League was actually harder to chose than the other league because there were not as many incumbents who were deemed so much better than their counterparts this year. (Note: these awards were given out to the best player at each single position, including the three outfield positions which were divided into players who played most of their games at a certain spot.)

First Base

Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Gonzalez played in every game this season except for one and only committed six errors in 1442 chances. He is tied for the league lead in fielding percentage and was involved in the second most double plays. He has a good range factor and a decent zone rating while being right up there in assists and putouts. He wins this award in a close race with many others in the running, but he is just slightly better then the others.

Others who were considered: Lance Berkman of the Houston Astros and Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Second Base

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies

Even though Utley is third in fielding percentage, .006 behind the leader, he played in 19 more games than Brandon Phillips, who has the best fielding percentage. He had more total chances by far than any other second baseman (110 more than Phillips who came in second). Perhaps because of this he was first in putouts and assists and second in double plays, just two behind the leader. He also has the best range factor and zone rating amount those eligible for the award.

Others who were considered: Brandon Phillips of the Cincinnati Reds and Freddy Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Third Base

Troy Glaus, St. Louis Cardinals

Glaus did by no means run away with this award, but the facts that he has a better fielding percentage, range factor and one of the best zone ratings among those at this position earned him the award. He had seven errors in 385 chances while helping to turn 27 double plays. His competition was very close though, although he is .008 in front of everyone else in fielding percentage.

Others who were considered: Kevin Kouzmanoff of the San Diego Padres and Pedro Feliz of the Philadelphia Phillies. (Even though Feliz only started 106 games, he was given consideration because of the good percentages he and because of his league leading zone rating. The New York Mets’ David Wright would have been next on the list.)

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies

Rollins had another good season at shortstop, putting up the best fielding percentage in the league by .005 and only committing seven errors in 593 chances. He is second in putouts and just barely second (by .001) in zone rating while coming in third in range factor. While he didn’t play in as many games as some of the other eligible players (132), there was not a huge discrepancy.

Others who were considered: Miguel Tejada of the Houston Astros and Cesar Izturis of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Left Field

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Not committing an error all season long in 284 chances will get you the gold glove. He was also second in assists and first in range factor. While he didn’t start any double plays, he converted more putouts than anyone else in the league. This was one of the fairly easy selections as the person who is second in fielding percentage, Carlos Lee at .995, played in 39 fewer games than Braun.

Others who were considered: Pat Burrell of the Philadelphia Phillies and Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies.

Center Field

Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh Pirates

At least one good thing will come from another Pirates’ losing season with McLouth grabbing this award. McLouth played in the second most innings of any center fielder while boasting the best fielding percentage at .997. The only person to match that was Mike Cameron who played in 30 fewer games. McLouth also had five assists and started one double play with 380 putouts. His range factor is one of the best in the game and flying under the radar for the entire season probably helps him.

Others who were considered: Shane Victorino of the Philadelphia Phillies and Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets.

Right Field

Hunter Pence, Houston Astros

Pence committed just one error all season long in 156 games and 357 chances. He had an incredible 16 assists and 340 putouts to lead the league in both categories. While he is second in the league in fielding percentage at .997, the leader (Andre Ethier) only started 102 games in right field. Pence also has a good range factor for his position and a decent zone rating.

Others who were considered: Jeff Francoeur of the Atlanta Braves and Corey Hart of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Pitcher

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

While there were a number of pitchers with a perfect fielding percentage and perfect zone rating, Cain had the most total chances and is tied for the most double plays of these pitchers. He also had 24 assists and 14 putouts. While this race is hard to call, pitchers do show their skill when they have to turn a double play so that helps Cain win the award.

Others who were considered: Bronson Arroyo of the Cincinnati Reds and Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Catcher

Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants

While Chris Snyder did not commit an error at this position, he only played in 112 games, which hurts his chances. Molina played in 136 while throwing out a better percentage of base runners (.346 to .310) than Snyder. He also carries a perfect zone rating and was part of nine double plays which is second in the league.

Others who were considered: Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs and Jason Kendall of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Some positions in the American League are easy to pick for the Gold Glove Awards, but others are considerably harder. While some positions have their popular players who have won the awards in the past, others have fluctuated in recent history. (Note: these awards were given out to the best player at each single position, including the three outfield positions which were divided into players who played most of their games at a certain spot.)

First Base

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins

Morneau is second in fielding percentage at his position with a .997, but also played 23 more games that the player in front of him. He also tied for the League lead in putouts and played more innings than any other first baseman in the league. While his zone rating and range factor aren’t great, he makes up for it by being more consistent than anyone else in the league.

Others who were considered: Carlos Pena of the Tampa Bay Rays and Lyle Overbay of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

While Pedroia will miss out on a second World Series ring and his first MVP trophy, he will still have some consolation with this prize. He is second among second basement in fielding percentage, but played in 42 more games than Oakland’s Mark Ellis whose percentage is just .001 higher than Pedroia’s. He was faced with the third most chances in the league and only committed six errors, while helping to turn over 100 double plays.

Others who were considered: Akinori Iwamura of the Tampa Bay Rays and Brian Roberts of the Baltimore Orioles.

Third Base

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees

In a very close race, Rodriguez takes the price by having just slightly more of everything than the other top third basemen in the league. He is tied for the top fielding percentage while putting up good numbers in most other categories. In 131 games, he committed just 10 errors at one of the hardest positions in the game.

Others who were considered: Jack Hannahan of the Oakland Athletics and Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners.

Shortstop

Michael Young, Texas Rangers

This is actually one of the easier awards to pick because of how much ahead of everyone else Young is. He has a sizeable lead in fielding percentage, taking first place by .005 (it seems small, but it’s actually one of the biggest leads in either league) and he has turned nine more double plays than anyone else in the top ten. He only committed 11 errors despite having 669 chances and played the second most innings of top shortstops.

Others who were considered: Orlando Cabrera of the Chicago White Sox and Jhonny Peralta of the Cleveland Indians (Peralta was very hard to put on this list, but he stacks up against the other shortstops very well).

Left Field

Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners

If Young’s lead in fielding percentage over the shortstops was big, Ibanez’ .011 lead over other left fielders is huge. Ibanez is the easy choice with more chances, more innings, more putouts and less errors than the others in the running. He also tallied nine assists (which is second among left fielders) and started one double play.

Others who were considered: Delmon Young of the Minnesota Twins and Carlos Quentin of the Chicago White Sox.

Centerfield

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians

Sizemore is second in fielding and did commit two more errors than Torii Hunter, but he also played in 14 more games. This will be Sizemore’s second in a row and he does it in impressive fashion. Sizemore has one of the best zone ratings in the game, at any position, and has range that few can match. He was second overall in putouts in the position that is stock full of talent.

Others who were considered: Torii Hunter of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles.

Right Field

Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles

While Markakis is fourth in fielding percentage, he has a better range than any other right fielder and he has seven more assists than anyone else. He also has the most total chances and putouts by far and only committed three errors all season while starting three double plays. Markakis was overlooked because his team was not successful, but he certainly helped the O’s win the games they did.

Others who were considered: Jermaine Dye of the Chicago White Sox and Bobby Abreu of the New York Yankees.

Pitcher

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox

While there were a number of pitchers who did not commit an error this season, Buehrle edged the field mainly because he had the most total chances of those pitchers. He also started five doubles plays and had a perfect zone rating. Buehrle has been known throughout his career for having a good glove.

Others who were considered: Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox and Andy Sonnanstine of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Catcher

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Mauer played in the most games as a catcher in the American League and only committed three errors, which helped him get his perfect zone rating as well as his league leading .997 fielding percentage. He has the third highest percentage of runners who were caught stealing and while he is in the bottom of the top five in total chances, he was nearly perfect when he had them.

Others who were considered: Jason Varitek of the Boston Red Sox and Kurt Suzuki of the Oakland Athletics.