As is the case with all other teams, health is the first key to success. The close second, though, would be the effectiveness of the starting rotation. The Twins lack a clear ace, although they have no fewer than three very capable No. 2 or No. 3 starters along with a plethora of No. 5 options.

Scott Baker has been named the Opening Day starter, with Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, and most probably Francisco Liriano rounding up the rotation. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak will both be waiting in the wings, however, should anyone struggle.

Minnesota shouldn’t have a problem scoring runs, but the key to a successful season will be the starting rotation.

Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

I haven’t done any real projections lately, but I would say the Twins will have a final record of 90-72 and finish first in the AL Central. They will defeat their ALDS opponent in five games, but fall in the ALCS in five games.

Related posts:

1. Reflections on the 2010 White Sox: A Preview
2. Tigers Drop Finale, Division to Twins
3. 2009 Season Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

Here are some of the quotes from the knuckleballers from an article on NESN.com where these videos came from by Michael Hurley entitled, “Tim Wakefield Offers Pitching Advice to 18-Year-Old Female Knuckleballer Eri Yoshiba“.

“I was very impressed,” Wakefield said. “It’s an honor to have somebody to carry on a knuckleball tradition, and someone who’s doing it because she likes what I do. It’s pretty cool to have somebody come over to the states from Japan … for her to come all the way to Fort Myers and watch me throw, it was an honor for me to just talk to her and give her some tips.”

“She told me she was self-taught, and this was the first time she’s actually had any coaching throwing a knuckleball,” Wakefield said. “So I kind of know where she’s at because I was there. When I first started throwing, nobody knew what to do. it’s pretty cool that I’m able to give back to somebody that wants to carry on the tradition of throwing a knuckleball.”

“I never thought I could ever feel this happy,” Yoshida said through an interpreter.

“I think both in terms of pitching technique and also the mental aspects of the game, he taught me a lot in a lot of great detail,” she said.

Here’s a video clip from that article:

Here is a link to the article whereTim Wakefield talking about his meeting Eri…

Tim Wakefield ‘Very Impressed’ With Eri Yoshida’s Knuckleball (Video)

And here’s a link to the article whereEri Yoshida talking about his meeting her baseball idol…

Eri Yoshida Nearly Speechless After Meeting Idol Tim Wakefield (Video)

Related posts:

1. A Monday in the Offseason: Dustin Pedrioa (video)
2. Jason Varitek’s Pre-Season Workout Video (2009-2010)
3. Not In A League Of Their Own Anymore

With Spring Training starting and the 2010 baseball season only weeks away, it is the time of the year when fans of the

The Orioles were not among the most aggressive or highest spending teams in the offseason, but they did make a number of lower-key moves designed to make the team better in 2010.

Considering that they went 64-98 (including a 20-39 record to end the season) in 2009, it shouldn’t take much to illustrate improvement.

In the first of a three part series looking at 2010, we will look at some of the keys for the Orioles if they hope to show significant improvement and perhaps even register their first winning season since 1997.

· Make a Statement Immediately that it is a New Era – Even during their decade of despair, the Orioles have often started the season hot. Since 1998, the Orioles have registered a .500 or better April record in seven of 12 seasons, including five of the last seven. A year ago, Baltimore started the season with a 6-2 record, but quickly cooled off to finish April with a 9-13 record. In 2008 the Orioles started the season with a 16-12 April, which was their best opening month since starting 16-7 in 2005.

While a strong early start may not transcend into success later in the season, if the 2010 Orioles want to be seen as a different team than the squad with 12 straight losing seasons, they must demonstrate from the very beginning that they are not the same old Orioles.

That means starting the season aggressively and hovering near the top of the AL East for at least the first few weeks of the season. It is up to Dave Trembley and the veterans on the team to get the young players moving early and create a culture of expecting success, rather than mediocrity.

· The Young Pitchers Can’t Act Like Rookies Anymore – Last season the Orioles seemed to be starting a rookie pitcher just about every night. It provided good experience for the young hurlers, but it is one explanation for their 98 loss season.

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The rookies had various levels of success in 2009. Brad Bergesen (7-5, 3.43 ERA) was unquestionably the best of the group and looked like a contender for Rookie of the Year honors before missing the last two months of the season after being hit on the shin on July 30th.

The other rookies had flashes of brilliance, but also took their typical rookie lumps. It is doubtful that they all will start the season in the majors, but expect Jason Berken, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz to all have a chance to earn a spot in the rotation.

For the Orioles to be successful, at least three of the young guns must shed their rookie inconsistency and emerge as the All-Star caliber hurlers many have predicted.

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· Brian Roberts Must Remain Among the Best Table Setters in Baseball – One casualty of the Orioles poor performance in recent years it that Brian Roberts has not received as much recognition for his greatness as a leadoff hitter as is deserved.

Since 2004, Roberts has had a .290 batting average and averaged 101 runs scored, 46 doubles, 35 stolen bases and 62 RBI each season. Yet, he has been named as an All-Star only twice and is often overlooked in the discussion for the best second basemen in the game in conversations about the best leadoff men.

Now 32 years old, Roberts is at the peak of his career and the Orioles will need a big season from him if they are indeed going to improve their record. The Birds have a number of players capable of driving in runs and it is Roberts job to be on base for them to bring home.

One concern about Roberts is that his strikeout numbers have increased in each of the last three years (112 in 2009). Last season his on base percentage actually declined to .356 after consecutive seasons above .375. If he can return to his previous form in 2010, the Orioles should see a corresponding increase in their run production.

· Kevin Millwood Must Lead On and Off The Field – In a conversartion with Orioles’ broadcaster Buck Martinez late last season, he mentioned how important it would be for the Orioles to bring in a veteran pitcher for 2010 to serve as the staff ace and example for the young pitchers. While I don’t think Kevin Millwood can be considered a quality staff ace, I do think bringing him to the team can be very helpful for the young pitchers.

If you will recall, Millwood started his career with the Atlanta Braves and learned from all-time greats Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.

Though his pitching numbers since leaving Atlanta following the 2002 season have been average (80-75 record, 4.25 ERA), he has pitched primarily for losing teams.

He is the kind of veteran pitcher that can come in and teach the young pitchers what it takes to be successful while also eating up some innings and producing victories. Millwood has started at least 29 games in each of the last five seasons and 10 times during his career.

His days as a staff ace may be over, but he can be a quality starter while helping to build one or more of the young guns into future aces.

· Miguel Tejada Must Produce – I’m not exactly sure what to think of the Miguel Tejada signing. On one hand the Orioles can use a veteran presence in the clubhouse and at the important position of third base. However, on the other hand Tejada has a significant amount of baggage and his departure two years ago was a good move for both the Orioles and for him.

Hopefully in his return Tejada, who will turn 36 (four years older than when he left Baltimore two years ago, but that’s another story) during the season, will recognize that his role now is not to be the superstar, but instead to be the steady veteran player that enables the young studs to develop into superstars.

If he can embrace his new role and still produce as he has on the field in recent years (.298 average, 152 RBI the last two seasons) then the Orioles can consider his return to be successful.

· Bullpen Must Make It Through The Year – Each of the last three seasons the Orioles have brought in quality pitchers to enhance the bullpen and try to make the team competitive on the mound in the late stages of games. For a while the bullpen shows improvement, but eventually over use catches up and the Orioles go back to their old routine of imploding late in games.

Obviously if that is to change in 2010 the starting pitchers must do their part by throwing more innings. In 2009 the Orioles had only two complete games and the relievers pitched 551 innings (38%). In comparison, the relievers for the Boston Red Sox pitched only 479 innings (33%) and their ERA was a full run lower than the relievers for the Orioles (3.80 compared to 4.83).

However, it is also partly the onus of the relievers to illustrate that they are capable of finishing games and keeping opponents off the scoreboard.

Newly acquired Michael Gonzalez has already been anointed as the closer and is a great acquisition for the Orioles. Look for former starters Koji Uehara and Mark Hendrickson to provide long inning support out of the bullpen. Jim Johnson can be a superstar as a middle reliever when not overused and Matt Albers is also capable as a middle inning pitcher when used appropriately.

If the Orioles are to be successful in 2010, the bullpen must be used in a way that allows them to be successful. That will mean that Dave Trembley and pitching coach Rick Kranitz must work with the staff to ensure that the starters are capable of throwing at least six innings per game (they averaged 5.5 per game a year ago).

· Wieters, Jones, Reimold and Markakis Must Keep Moving Forward – One of the reasons for optimism in Baltimore is that the team has finally cultivated some talented young position players capable of becoming superstars.

The key for these players in 2010 will be to continue taking steps forward instead of leveling off or taking steps backward.

I believe this will be especially important for Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones. Both players had glimpses of greatness last year.

Jones got off to a hot start and made his first All-Star team before tailing off in the second half of the season and then missing the last month with injuries.

Reimold finished strong (.364 average over the last month), but had dips at times during the season as he finished with a .279 average, 15 home runs and 45 RBI in 104 games.

Matt Wieters made consistent improvement following his call-up in late May. If he can continue to develop, Wieters could become a superstar during just his second season. He also finished strong in 2009 (.362 average, 14 RBI in September) and in just 96 games posted a .288 average, nine home runs and 43 RBI.

Nick Markakis is the closest thing the Orioles have to a current superstar, but he has not yet even made an All-Star team. In 2009 he finished the year with a .293 average, 18 home runs and 101 RBI. However, he hit only .198 with seven RBI over the final month of the season. For the Orioles to be successful in 2010, he cannot have extended periods without offensive production.

· Cesar Izturis Must Continue His Solid Shortstop Play – One position where there was noticeable improvement for the Orioles in 2009 was shortstop. After struggling at the spot in 2008, Cesar Izturis came in and provided much-needed consistency (especially defensively) at the position. He made only eight errors in 112 games and also gave the added bonus of hitting .256.

Though he missed several weeks following an appendectomy, Izturis was still a key performer for the Orioles in 2009 and will continue in that role in 2010.

Check back in the coming days (or weeks) for part two of our preseason look at the Orioles as we will focus on each position and look at where the strengths and weaknesses lie for the Birds. We will then wrap-up our preseason series with a look at what would qualify as a “successful” season for the Orioles in 2010.

Related posts:

1. Baltimore Orioles Announce Return of Dave Trembley For 2010
2. Four Burning Questions Facing The Baltimore Orioles
3. Baltimore Orioles Need To Provide Young Pitchers With Offensive Support

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In January, the Mets signed Jason Bay for $66 million over four years, with an option for a fifth. Some criticized the Mets for giving a player with some injury risks such a big deal. Bay appeared to take a long time to agree to join the Mets, leading to speculation that he hoped to play somewhere else. Peter Gammons claimed that Bay “would rather play in Beirut than Queens.”

But the Mets desperately needed another power bat in their lineup, particularly in left field, where injury-prone Angel Pagan seems more suited to be the fourth outfielder. So signing Bay meant the Mets addressed at least one major need. The signing became even more important when Carlos Beltran underwent knee surgery in January, meaning that the Mets would start the season without one of their few power bats and that Pagan would be needed in center field.

Matt Holliday is generally considered to be a better player than Bay, but the Scott Boras client ended up getting a seven-year, $120 million contract, so the Mets were able to get one of the of the two very good leftfielders available at a much lower price.

The third top free agent available, John Lackey, would have filled the Mets’ pressing need for a No. 2 starter. Many Met fans, including this one, would have preferred Lackey to Bay. But if the Mets passed on Bay and Holliday, there were a few other good free agent or trade options available for left field.

While Lackey was far and away the top pitcher available, there were several other pitchers in the free agent market who could have upgraded the Mets’ rotation. There was said to be mutual interest between Joel Pineiro and the Mets and native Staten Islander Jason Marquis said he wanted to go to the Mets.

But the Mets ended up making no upgrade to their starting pitching, meaning they will go into spring training with many question marks behind Johan Santana. Oliver Perez looked good in minicamp and John Maine looks healthy, but it remains to be seen whether those two and Mike Pelfrey can pitch up to their potential.

As of now, the leading candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation are Jon Niese, coming off a serious hamstring injury, and Fernando Nieve, hoping to prove that he was more than a flash in the pan last year.

Of the six starters mentioned above, five spent time on the disabled list last year. Yet the Mets failed to bring in another established MLB starter, settling instead for the likes of Josh Fogg and Hisanori Takahashi.

The other big whiff in the offseason was at catcher. The Mets were linked to Bengie Molina for weeks, but he ended up returning to the Giants. Another free agent, Yorvit Torrealba, was always less of an option because he has filed a grievance against the Mets over their decision to back out of a deal after the 2007 season because they were unhappy with the results of his physical. Rod Barajas currently remains a free agent option.

The Mets did pick up three catchers – Henry Blanco, Chris Coste and Shawn Riggans, but the latter two appear ticketed to the minors. Blanco could stick as a backup, but he is 38 years old. However, the Mets’ two main catchers, Omir Santos and Josh Thole, also appear better suited to be backups. Thole might well get another year of season in the minors. The catching situation is so bad that when the Mets signed first baseman Mike Jacobs, some pointed out that he had caught in the minors.

At second base, the Mets once again tried to trade Luis Castillo so they could sign Orlando Hudson. Once again, nobody wanted to pick up Castillo’s contract, which has two more years to run at $6 million/year, so he remains the Mets’ second basemen. Ironically, the Twins, the team that traded Castillo to the Mets in 2007, just filled their second-base spot with Hudson.

After last season’s J.J. Putz debacle, the Mets tried again to find a setup man. They signed Kelvim Escobar, who was injured almost all of the last two years, and Japanese pitcher Ryota Igarashi. Bobby Parnell returns from last year’s squad, but he struggled when given a shot at the setup role.

As the Mets struggled to fill their many holes, a new one opened up when Beltran went under the knife. Beltran will probably miss at least the first month of the season.

As bad as the Beltran injury news was – the aftermath might have been worse. The Mets accused Beltran of having the surgery without their approval. After last year’s medical snafus, the Mets had vowed to improve communication between the team, the medical staff and the public. Instead, they potentially antagonized a key player and added to speculation that they downplay injuries internally and to the public.

Putz recently claimed that the Mets told him to hide his elbow woes from the media. Eventually, Putz had to undergo surgery in the middle of the season.

To replace Beltran, the Mets will probably turn to Angel Pagan, but they also traded for Gary Matthews. Jr. The Angels were so eager to get rid of Matthews that they were willing to eat $21 million of his salary.

Along with bringing back ex-Met Jacobs, the Mets re-signed Alex Cora and Fernando Tatis. Once again, the bench looks like it will consist mostly of aging veterans with very little upside.

Related posts:

1. Mets’ Hot Stove 2009 – Many Holes to Fill
2. Despite Ailments, Streaking Mets Keep NL East Tight
3. New York Mets Off Season Report

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Here’s the second video of a workout day in the life of…by NESN on a member of the Boston Red Sox. If you haven’t guessed by the title, this video follows Boston’s Diminutive Bad Boy, 2B Dustin Pedroia at his home in Arizona.

Check it out and tell us what you think. What you liked or disliked about it, etc.

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So what do you all think of that sleeveless shirt of his? I was expecting it to be a Superman shirt myself. I wish there was more in this video of his friendship with Dodger OF Andre Eithier, but other than that it was some nice insight. It was also understood why Eithier wasn’t in the video of a Red Sox player in a NESN video.

Related posts:

1. Baseball News, Tweets & More: Monday pm
2. Baseball News, Tweets & More…Monday pm
3. Baseball News, Tweets & More…Monday, am

First Base:

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Yovani Gallardo

Photo by Icon SMI

Related posts:

1. 2009/2010 Free Agents at SS
2. A last look at the Brewers ‘09: A first look at what’s next
3. Brewers Fading Away: An August Recap

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If you are anything like me, you wonder what catchers have to go through in the offseason to prepare for a season of 162 games. Well here’s a video showing us a typical day in Red Sox captain and part time catcher (I am having problems calling him a back up after all of these years, but it had to happen sooner or later) Jason Varitek. The video shows Tek in his natural habitat, his home down in Georgia.

So without further ado, from Boston’s own cable channel NESN (New England Sports Network), here’s the video…

For those of you who complain about Tek’s arm and his inability to throw base stealers out at a consistently enough, did you pick up on the fact that he now needs to start throwing more since he broke his elbow. Yup, that’s right, remember that one year when he was on the DL for most of the second half of the season after making that diving catch by the on deck circle? It’s all coming back to me now, that’s right, that awesome catch broke his elbow (and he still hung onto the ball if I remember correctly)!

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OK, be honest with me now, how many of you had t go back to the video to hear him say that again?

As always, we’d love to hear your comments about what you think of this video.

Stay tuned, because next week we’ll have a video on another Red Sox player during his offseason workout!

Related posts:

1. A Monday in the Offseason: Dustin Pedrioa (video)
2. Top 5 Low/High Risk 2009/2010 Free Agent Starters
3. 2009/2010 Free Agents at SS

While for a lot of teams, the offseason is a quiet time, a time for

It would have been hard to believe after the final out of the NLDS that anything would overshadow the pursuit of Matt Holliday during the winter. After all, St. Louis had mortgaged their future, to some extent, to bring him into the fold. Holliday promised to be one of the top free agents on the market and one that would draw a lot of attention from around baseball.

However, the Holliday pursuit was moved to the back burner with the November announcement that Mark McGwire would be returning to baseball as the Cardinals’ hitting coach. McGwire, who had been out of baseball since the end of the 2001 season and had kept a low profile since his disastrous 2005 testimony before Congress, was not present at the announcement of his hiring, but the team promised he would be available to the press at some time.

That time was January, as McGwire met the media and admitted what had long been suspected, that he used steroids during his playing career, including his record-setting 1998 campaign. McGwire made the rounds with his apology and admittance, but his stance that steroids didn’t help him hit home runs undercut any good will that had been generated by his coming forth.  An incomprehensible press conference at the team’s Winter Warm-Up, where the press was herded into a crowded hallway and only allowed a few minutes with McGwire, didn’t help in the war of public relations either.

The Holliday situation came to a head before McGwire’s admission.  Just as reports had the Cards setting a firm deadline and preparing to walk away, the two sides came together and hammered out a seven-year, $120 million contract.  While the total numbers weren’t exactly in the range where Scott Boras expected them to be, it still is the most expensive contract ever handed out by St. Louis.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

That distinction is expected to last until the Cardinals come to terms with first baseman Albert Pujols.  This offseason, there was a lot of talk about extending Pujols’s deal, which expires (after a team option) at the end of the ’11 season.  Pujols has said that he won’t have negotiations during the season, leaving the team a short window to do anything before the ’10 season kicks off.

While the team has expressed strong interest in getting the job done, Pujols’s comments have been at least interpreted in various ways.  While he has said that he’s prepared to become a free agent, he’s also said that he’d consider a discount to stay.  He’s indicated there is no rush to get him signed, preferring the team focus on their pursuit of Holliday.  Now that he’s in the fold, that focus has changed.

The contract status of Pujols will be one of the major topics during the coming season.  He may not want to discuss it, but the rest of us will.

The Cardinals also worked on their pitching staff during the winter, signing Brad Penny to a one-year deal and bringing in former Cub Rich Hill as a non-roster invitee to spring training. As it stands now, this is the look of the Cardinals going into the spring (at least from this writer’s viewpoint).

2B Skip Schumaker
SS Brendan Ryan
1B Albert Pujols
LF Matt Holliday
RF Ryan Ludwick
CF Colby Rasmus
C Yadier Molina
3B David Freese

Bench: C Jason LaRue, INF Julio Lugo, rest TBD

SP Chris Carpenter
SP Adam Wainwright
SP Kyle Lohse
SP Brad Penny
SP Rich Hill/Jaime Garcia/Mitchell Boggs

RP Kyle McClellan
RP Blake Hawksworth
RP Ben Jakish (Rule V from Reds)
RP Jason Motte
RP Dennys Reyes
RP Trever Miller

CP Ryan Franklin

The bench will likely be a focus of GM John Mozeliak’s in the days leading up to and even into spring training.  However, the Cardinals have a strong core for 2010.

Related posts:

1. The Holliday Season
2. The Cardinals 2009 Postseason And Some Notes on 2010
3. For The Cardinals, It Was A Stuttering September

The Indians started the off season by firing their manager and his coaches, but keeping most of the other front office personnel in place. They staged some what of an extensive manager search and ended on former Washington Nationals’ skipper Manny Acta.

There was a big deal made in Cleveland about bringing Bobby Valentine in for an interview as well as some discussion about Indian legend Mike Hargrove coming back to coach the Tribe. As it turned out, the Indians didn’t want to pay the money it would take to pry Valentine from Japan and Hargrove probably didn’t want to come back to a team that is continually trading away their best players.

Another name in the discussion was former Tribe third baseman Travis Fryman, who currently coaches one of the team’s Minor League clubs. His interview seemed more as a courtesy from the Tribe then a feeling of genuine interest.

So, Acta is now in charge of the ball club on Lake Erie. Many have questioned why Mark Shapiro picked Acta, who got fired from one of the only teams that have been worse than the Indians in the past few years. Speculation has it that Shapiro wanted someone who wouldn’t question his moves, which seem to be primarily decided by ownership, and who would be willing to coach whatever players were there at not a very high price.

Former Indian C Sandy Alomar Jr.

One of the traditions in Northeast Ohio is for fans to want to bring back anyone and everyone who had a hand in the Central Division winning teams in the 1990s. Well, they got their wish this off season as Sandy Alomar Jr. was signed on as a coach. This hire may have received more press action and comments in the area then the hiring of Acta did. In retrospect, this was by far the best pickup the Tribe made all off season.

Following in line with moves that should be a trade mark of the Indians, Shapiro traded away a few more starters for some players to be named later and continually insists that the Tribe is headed in the right direction. There have not been any free agency acquisitions to publicize; in fact, the Tribe has virtually done everything possible to stay out of the news since ending the regular season.

There was some excitement around the Hall of Fame voting when former Indian Roberto Alomar was believed to be a lock to get in, possible wearing an Indians hat. Unfortunately, Tribe fans couldn’t even console in that good news as Alomar came up just short, and will have to try again next year.

With Spring Training just around the corner, the Indians are starting to try to find a way to possibly get some people inside of the park, but seriously, how many Grady Sizemore promotions can one team have? The Indians were at the bottom of the league in attendance last year, and things don’t look to be getting any better.

Related posts:

1. The Comings and Goings in Cleveland
2. Indians Hire Melendez as Area Scouting Supervisor
3. Indians Sign Former Cub Closer Wood

Each year, BaseballEvolution.com doles out Mark Redman Awards for both leagues, recognizing pitchers who began the season surprisingly well but crashed back to earth in the second half of the season.  New Arizona Diamondback Edwin Jackson won the 2009 AL Award.  Does that have any predicative value for Jackson’s 2010 season and beyond?

Baseball Evolution first created the Mark Redman Award in 2006, so we only have follow-up data for a half dozen pitchers.  Let’s see what we can glean from it:

Jose Contreras 2006: 13-9, 4.27 in 196 IP

Jose Contreras 2007: 10-17, 5.57 in 189 IP

Jose Contreras 2008: 7-6, 4.54 in 121 IP

Jose Contreras 2009: 6-13, 4.92 in 131.2 IP

The inaugural AL winner certainly continued to tumble after a poor end to the 2006 season.  In fairness, Contreras was listed as a 34-year old in 2006 and may in fact have been much older.   His decline may not be relevant to Jackson, who won his award during a season in which he was primarily 25 years old.

Jeremy Bonderman 2007: 11-9, 5.01 in 174.1 IP

Jeremy Bonderman 2008: 3-4, 4.29 in 71.1 IP

Jeremy Bonderman 2009: 0-1, 8.71 in 10.1 IP

Here is a far better comparison, since Bonderman was 24 when he won his award and is a fellow Tiger to boot.  The record and ERA here are misleading, as the former 1st-round pick struck out 145 batters while walking 48 in 2007 before fanning just 44 and walking 36 in fewer than half as many innings the following year.  Bonderman’s record and ERA weren’t far worse in 2008 only because of a fluke of small sample size.

And with Bonderman, the lack of a meaningful sample size is the real story.  He certainly lost effectiveness after his Redman win, but he more starkly lost his health.  After averaging 30 starts per season in his first five big league seasons, Bonderman has made only 13 over the past two years.

Garrett Olson 2008: 9-10, 6.65 in 132.2 IP

Garrett Olson  2009: 3-5, 5.60 in 80.1 IP

Olson, too, lost playing time in the season following his Redman Award, but in his case, it was not due to injury.  The Seattle Mariners were in contention last season, and could not afford to put up with bad Olson outings the way that perennial cellar-dwellers like the Baltimore Orioles could in 2008.  So even though Olson’s 2009 numbers were a substantial improvement over what he managed in 2008, the M’s put him in Triple-A for two stints totaling nearly two months and shuttled him between the rotation and the bullpen while he was in the majors  And actually, in his 11 starts, Olson went 3-5 with a 6.49 ERA, which isn’t an improvement on his 2008 numbers.

Like Bonderman, Olson was 24 in his Redman season, so his failure to recapture the success he had in the first half of 2008 is applicable to Edwin Jackson.

Derrick Turnbow 2006: 4-9, 6.87 in 56.1 IP

Derrick Turnbow 2007: 4-5, 4.63 in 68 IP

Derrick Turnbow 2008: 0-1 15.63 in 6.1 IP

Relievers are notoriously fickle.  That said, Derrick Turnbow had one of the most drastic turnarounds of any reliever in history.  Turnbow was one of the most effective closers in baseball in 2005.  Four years later at the age of 31, he was out of baseball.  Clearly, the turning point was the summer of 2006, although Turnbow was at least serviceable in 2007.  His situation is certainly different from Edwin Jackson’s as a starter, but there’s no denying that his disastrous second half in 2006 was a bad omen of things to come.

John Maine 2007: 15-10, 3.91 in 191 IP

John Maine 2008: 10-8, 4.18 in 140 IP

John Maine 2009: 7-6, 4.43 in 81.1 IP

Not much to analyze here.  Maine has seen his effectiveness and durability steadily decline in two years since winning a very tight Redman Award over Jason Marquis.  It is worth noting that Marquis has been pretty solid over the past two seasons (although he still falters in the second half).  Had he gotten the Redman nod over Maine, this analysis would look a bit better for Jackson and the D-backs.

Jonathan Sanchez 2008: 9-12, 5.01 ERA in 158 IP

Jonathan Sanchez 2009: 8-12, 4.24 ERA in 163.1 IP

Finally, we found a Redman winner who was legitimately better the following season.  Sanchez and Jackson won their awards at the exact same age.  The difference was in their component ERAs.  Sanchez had a Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 3.90 in 2008, over a full run lower than his actual ERA of 5.01.  Jackson had a FIP of 4.34 last season, nearly three-quarters of a run higher than his actual 3.62 ERA.  Redman issues aside, we would expect Sanchez to improve on his 2008 ERA and Jackson to decline from his 2009 ERA based on the ratios of strikeouts, walks, and homers for each pitcher.  Sanchez was unlucky in 2008 while Jackson was fortunate in 2009.

Conclusions

Looking solely at the season following a Redman Award, we total the following:

The Redman Year: 61-59, 4.97 in 908.2 IP

Year After Redman: 38-51, 4.78 in 712 IP

This isn’t at all what I expected.  I figured that with the first part of a Redman season being so uncharacteristically dominant, the following season would necessarily be a letdown.  It turns out that the second half of Redman seasons tend to be uncharacteristically bad as well, so the following season tends to feature some evening out.  The win-loss record of Redman winners tends to get a little worse while their earned run averages improve a bit.  Neither trend is very statistically significant.

But there is something to be gleaned here.  Check out those innings pitched totals.  After averaging 151 innings per season during their Redman years, these six pitchers averaged just 119 the following season.  Remove the one reliever from the group and we see a decline from 170 to 129.  When we move one more year past the Redman season, things get even worse.  A disastrous second half could be indicative of an injury for starting pitchers – injuries that recur in subsequent seasons and become career-threatening in some instances.

This is particularly bad news for Edwin Jackson, who already had so many injury red flags surrounding him that you might think a swarm of NFL coaches were watching instant replays near him.  Jackson surpassed his 2008 innings pitched total by just over 30 last season, which is the point at which we can expect injury trouble in the subsequent season due to the sharp increase in workload.  Furthermore, Jackson had 18 starts in which he threw over 100 pitches, three in which he surpassed 120, and one dubious start in which he was asked to throw 132 pitches.  Since Jackson regularly throws his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s, these high pitch counts take their toll on him more so than they would for a soft-tosser.

The ironic part of all this is that the D-backs purportedly traded the younger, cheaper, and more-talented Max Scherzer for Jackson because they believed that Scherzer was an injury waiting to happen.  On the contrary, Jackson is unlikely to reach 150 innings in 2010 and I will go on record as saying that he will not reach 200.  Things could get even worse beyond 2010, but focusing just on this upcoming season, Edwin Jackson is extremely unlikely to spend the entire season healthy and effective.

With the lack of depth in their starting rotation, the Diamondbacks can ill-afford to have that happen.

Related posts:

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2. Broadcaster Ernie Harwell to Receive Vin Scully Lifetime Achievement Award
3. Three-Way Trade Is Bad News for D-backs