Congratulations to Tim Lincecum for winning the 2009 NL Cy Young award, just a couple short days after Zack Greinke’s victory for the AL counterpart. But an even bigger congratulations is in order. A congratulations to the BBWAA voters.

Just what am I getting at, you ask? As we’re all aware of, there have been several outrageous Cy Young awards given out almost solely due to a pitcher’s run support. 1967 may have been the worst, when Jim Bunning garnered only 1 first place vote despite obviously pitching more and better quality innings than NL winner Mike McCormick. Then there was a young Tom Seaver losing to Fergusen Jenkins in 1971 when threw 286 innings for an extraordinarily low 1.76 ERA (192 ERA+ and 1.93 FIP), while Jenkins‘ only sizeable lead was in IP (325 vs. 286) and Wins (24 to 20). In 1984, Rick Suttcliffe swept all of the 1st place votes despite pitching 68 less and worse innings than Doc Gooden for the NL. In the AL that year, relievers Willie Hernandez and Dan Quisenberry took the top two spots while Dave Stieb’s league crowns in ERA and IP garnered him only a 7^{th place finish*. In the 90’s we’ve seen Bob Welch beat out} Roger Clemens^{‘ season for the ages in 1990, we’ve seen Kevin Brown’s majestic 1996 largely forgotten due to} John Smoltz^{’s 7 Win lead, and again to another one of Atlanta’s future Hall of Famers two years later in an even worse voting catastrophe –} Brown ^{finished third in balloting despite facing 100 more batters than winner} Tom Glavine ^{whilst striking out 100 more! The new millennium brought us Pedro in his prime losing to Barry Zito because of 3 wins and 30 innings pitched in 2002, Randy Johnson losing to Roger Clemens in 2004 despite his significantly better totals in ERA, IP and strikeouts, all because of 2 measly wins (16 vs Clemens’ 18), and Johan Santana’s third place finish while leading the AL in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts and topping Cy winner} Bartolo Colon ^{in Innings Pitched in 2005.}

^{But now, 41 years later, the two Cy Young award winners won just 31 games COMBINED.}

^{Let that sink in for a second. Thirty-one wins. Zack Greinke pitched himself to 16, Tim Lincecum 15 and that equals Thirty-one! As a point of reference,} Denny McLain ^{in 1968 won 31 games by himself, and was the last pitcher to surpass the 30 win mark.}

^{Finally, after more than 100 years since the Win-Loss record was created and widely used as a measure of effectiveness, we are seeing its perceived value die out. Sure, it’s been spited in favor of Saves on more than one occasion, but that’s no better. For decades, voters who sought out value in other measures have been silenced, even if it was just ERA. But their voices slowly grew louder. And now in 2009, they are the majority. For the first time ever, more voters than not blatantly favored other, more complete statistics to determine Cy Young Award winners. Widely speculated to be Greinke’s biggest competition,} Felix Hernandez ^{garnered 3 more wins (19) and lost the Cy to Greinke in a landslide. Lincecum had two candidates perceived to win against him, in} Chris Carpenter ^and Adam Wainwright^{, who had 17 and 19 wins respectively, and defeated them with his modest 15, albeit narrowly.}

^{What led to this? In the AL, Greinke beat out Hernandez in ERA (2.16 vs. 2.49), Strikeouts (242 vs. 217) despite 9 less Innings Pitched, and gave up significantly less home runs (0.43 HR/9 versus Hernandez’ 0.57). By traditional standards, it’s crystal clear why Greinke should have beat out King Felix. But in the NL, in addition to his lack of wins, Lincecum was behind Carpenter in ERA by nearly a quarter of a run per 9, and Wainwright also had a genuinely great season even if you do ignore his league lead in Wins. By looking at statistics that sportswriters have passed on for generations, it really was a 3-horse race. But diving into the more analytical numbers tells us a very different story…}

^{(tERA and FIP WAR were created by Graham MacAree and Tom Tango, respectively, and can both be found on Fangraphs.com)}

^{tERA and FIP WAR are two metrics that encompass pitching skill by filtering what a pitcher cannot control. FIP WAR is a Wins Above Replacement model of the FIP statistic, which weighs strikeouts, bases on balls and home runs allowed and by itself presents them on a scale similar to ERA. tERA, like FIP, weighs strikeouts, bases on balls and home runs allowed, but also weighs batted ball data such as line drives, ground balls and fly balls allowed, and then presents them on an ERA scale.}

^{(Not familiar with FIP? Ask Zack Greinke! Someone needs to tell him to move out of his mother’s basement.)}

^{…These two statistics are as close to a “Best Pitcher in Baseball” statistic as you can get right now, at least until further development in the Hit-, Field-, and Throw F/X systems. In other words, they do what ERA and W/L record were seen as supposed to do for decades. And just which two pitchers just so happen to be at the top of the list? Why, it’s our two} Cy Young Award ^winners!

^{Now, I’m certain that most voters on the BBWAA panel didn’t look at these stats – heck, I would bet that 90 percent of them never even heard of them. But voters have never hit the nail on the head with the Cy Young award like they did this year.}

^{And that it’s happening at the sunset of the dubbed “}Moneyball^{” decade makes it read like poetry.}

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1. The Priesthood Wins Out Over Baseball?!
2. Why Tim Lincecum will be your 2009 NL Cy Young winner
3. BBA 2009 Cy Young Award Ballot

After a year in which Cardinals starting pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright dominated the headlines, pitched their team to a division title and were expected to fight for some off-season hardware, it was the Giants’ Tim Lincecum who picked up the first post-season win amongst the trio.

When the Sporting News named Lincecum the 2009 NL Pitcher of the Year on Thursday it came as a bit of a surprise. Many thought that Carpenter was hands down the best pitcher in the National League, thus having the Cy Young award locked up.

The SN award doesn’t mean Lincecum is now the favorite to win a second consecutive Cy – for one, the two awards are voted on by different entities. The Baseball Writers Association of America vote for the Cy Young, while the SN is decided by the 30 major league general managers.

Still, there is a strong correlation between the SN Pitcher of the Year and the Cy Young.

Since 2000, the American League pitcher named pitcher of the year by TSN went on to win the AL Cy Young in each of the past nine seasons.

However, in the NL only four of the last nine SN winners went on to a Cy Young trophy. The exceptions coming in 2006 when Arizona’s Brandon Webb, who won the Cy Young after Carpenter won the SN. In ’04 Roger Clemens beat out TSN winner Jason Schmidt for the NL Cy. And between 2000-2002 Randy Johnson won three straight Cy Young’s while Tom Glavine was voted TSN’s choice for best pitcher in 2000 and Curt Schilling was their pick in ’01 and ’02.

With that, Thursday’s announcement, while surprising to some, is an indication that baseball is transitioning into the 21^st century of statistical evaluation, valuing win-loss records with less importance. As proponents of Sabermetrics have been pointing out for some time, a pitcher’s win total is more reflective of the strength of his bullpen, the potency of his lineup and other variables out of his control.

After a thorough (and what I hope was an objective evaluation), the case for Lincecum winning his second Cy Young in just his second full season is a strong one.

The breakdown:

Lincecum had more strikeouts, complete games and shutouts than did Carpenter. Opponents hit for a lower average (.209 to .223) and had a lower slugging percentage against the Giant right-hander (though, it was a negligible difference between his .271 clip and Carpenter’s .272).

Surprisingly, in terms of run support, Carpenter wasn’t overwhelmingly supported by his team. St. Louis only provided him with 0.545 runs per inning pitched (IP), while the Giants gave Lincecum only slightly less, 0.510 runs per IP. But, consider Lincecum pitched considerably more innings than Carpenter yet was only rewarded with 10 more runs of support.

Carpenter won more games while giving up nearly a quarter of a run less per nine innings than Lincecum (2.24 to 2.48, respectively). He also gave up seven homers to Lincecum’s 10, both low figures compared to their total innings pitched – particularly impressive for Lincecum considering he is a fastball pitcher (55.8% of his pitches thrown were fastballs).

Both aces had microscopic WHIPS – Capenter 1.01, Lincecum 1.05. Each allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, with Carpenter surrendering .809 hits per IP to Lincecum’s .745 hits per IP.

The numbers across the board are closer than I had guessed they would be. But when you factor in the two teams each pitcher played for Lincecum’s accomplishments become more impressive.

Carpenter played with presumably the 2009 NL MVP, Albert Pujols, had statistically a better team around him and pitched in the NL Central against arguably weaker opponents – the Pirates, Brewers, Astros and Reds who all finished below .500.

Lincecum on the other hand did his damage, by in whole, while facing teams in the West that included two 90-win, playoff teams – the Dodgers and Rockies. He also played for statistically one of the game’s worst offenses.

When pure ‘stuff’ is factored in, the argument swings more in Linceum’s favor. The 25 year old right hander again dominated opponents for a second straight season and the feat of not only repeating his 2008 campaign but improving upon it should be considered.

Batters swung at more than a quarter of Lincecum’s pitches thrown out of the strike zone. They only swung at 61.5% of pitches in the zone – which speaks to the deception of his pitches. In fact, batters only got swings off at 44.4% of all of Lincecum‘s pitches and only made contact on three quarters of those swings (33% of total pitches). Lincecum also dominated while going right after hitters, throwing a majority of his pitches (50.2%) inside the strike zone. Additionally, 6.2% of the 168 hits Lincecum allowed never even left the infield.

Most strikingly, perhaps, Lincecum gave up two or fewer runs in 21 of his 32 starts, and one or fewer runs in 13 starts – yet he only won 10 of those 13 outings. To accent the point of the amount of pressure on Lincecum thanks to the Giants’ hapless offense, in only five starts Lincecum allowed more than three earned runs, going 0-3 in those starts. Essentially Linceum knew he had to be perfect every time he took the ball – and he nearly was.

Both pitchers had remarkable years, but considering Lincecum’s heavy lead in innings pitches, strike outs, hits per inning allowed, opponents’ batting average and slugging percentage, he gets the edge and should become the first ever pitcher to win a Cy Young in each of his first two full seasons.

KEY

BABIP – Batting avg. on balls hit in play.

LOB% – Percentage of base runners left on base without scoring.

RS – Run support.

LD% – Percentage of hits that were line drives.

O-Swing% – Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.

Z-Swing% – Percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.

Swing% – Total percentage of pitches a batter swings at.

O-Contact% – Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone.

Z-Contact% – Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone.

Contact% – Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches.

Zone% – Percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone.

F-Strike% - First pitch strike percentage.

(Italics indicate an advantage for Lincecum in a certain category).

Authors note:

It should be explained that Adam Wainwright, though he led the league in wins with 19 wins, was eliminated from this CY young comparison for a number of reasons. Wainwright had an opponents’ batting average of .263 (only 10 points below the league average). He had a WHIP of 1.21, allowed 17 homers, an opponent’s slugging percentage of .349, and gave up 309 total bases – 73 more than Tim Lincecum and 95 more than Chris Carpenter. Wainwright had a fantastic year but, as the numbers bear out, he was a cut below Carpenter and Lincecum.

Related posts:

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3. Sabermetrics and the Cy Young Award