Both Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum are in the middle of working on contract extensions. The Milwaukee infield is abysmal with the exception of Rickie Weeks. The Brewers really relied on the Fielder/Braun combo for a large portion of their offensive production. If I were the GM over in Milwaukee I would use this opportunity to rebuild. Don’t sign fielder, shop Greinke and Marcum and get some pieces that will help you for 2013-’14 because 2012 is essentially a loss without Braun in the lineup. I think the biggest mistake would be to continue the game plan and hope that they can pick back up in the second half of 2012. The offense isn’t strong enough to hold everything together without Braun in such a strong division.

Billy Beane decided to essentially toss any hope for A’s fans out the window yesterday when he dealt young ace in the making Trevor Cahill and effective RP Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for SP prospect Jarrod Parker and two “prospects”. This move is significant for the D’backs as their outlook on 2012 takes a sudden jump by adding a ground ball specialist with the best sinker in the game since former D’Backs ace, Brandon Webb.

By adding Cahill the D’backs add a ton of depth in a rotation that was questionable at the end. I think Cahill is the best pitcher on the D’backs right now, and will likely continue to get better if he can command his sinker a bit better going forward. I tweet’d yesterday that I have been wary of Cahill’s health. While watching him in 2012 I noticed a slight difference in both his arm angle and the depth of his sinker. Although he regressed on a statistical end, which was expected, he also gave me warning signs on the eye test. If I’m wrong, which is quite possible, Arizona wins this trade in a vacuum. Reason I say that is because Parker will likely perform significantly better in Oakland than he would in Arizona. The ballpark factor cannot be denied here in Parker’s side, much less in Cahill’s due to his extreme ground ball splits. I would look to see Cahill back off of the slow breaking curve and use his power sinker a bit more, especially when pitching at home vs. teams with pop.

Parker is your typical scouts dream. He’s got big velocity, a change with depth and a slider that was much better prior to Tommy John surgery which may return but if not he can use it as a show me pitch. I don’t necessarily see how this trade really benefits anybody other than Arizona, as Cahill is likely to be better than Parker even if only by a small margin, and is cost efficient and we know what he’s going to make until 2017. If Parker develops into an ace, Oakland will almost certainly need to move him and move him quickly because they’re about the same age, only difference is that Cahill signed a team-friendly extension last season. The prospects given along with Parker aren’t of impact, unless Ryan Cook magically learns how to command his breaking ball.

Arizona fans have a lot to be excited about if Cahill is healthy, but I am one of the few out there who isn’t exactly sold on that fact. Time will tell.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they’ve leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I’m not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA’s lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

Nobody is going to tell me that pitching wins did not have a part of the decision here. Zack Greinke had a season two years ago that was arguably more dominant than Verlander, and the discussion at the time was whether or not he could possibly win the Cy Young due to his low win-total. Last year you saw Felix Hernandez dominate hitters all season long, and again, the discussion was whether or not he should win the Cy (even though he inevitably did win). Now Verlander comes along and puts up very impressive numbers, but also 24 wins to boost his case and he wins the MVP after making 36 apperances.

The ironic part of this all is that it seems as though Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista took votes away from each other. There was a writer in Boston who basically said he voted for Verlander because “nobody stood out” to him. That is a ridiculous argument that makes me embarrassed to say he collects a paycheck to write his opinion. The award is given to the player who provides the most value. It seems as though there has been no real discussion of the standards of the award. But then again, some writers still vote based on pitching win totals, so I won’t get too far ahead of myself.

With that said, here’s my final ranking of who I would have voted for given a ballot:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Jose Bautista
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Justin Verlander
5. Miguel Cabrera

David Freese and Allen Craig have shown a very advanced approach at the plate. They get on base, can hit for extra bases and work counts into their favor. At the beginning of 2011 it looked as though if Pujols leaves, the Cards are in a world of hurt. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Recently the Cards picked up Adam Wainwright’s club option for 2012 and 2013 due to his progress in rehab. There was a rumor of a slim chance that Wainwright would possibly be available to pitch in the World Series, but I’m sure nobody believed that. It is a good sign that he is regaining his stuff.

Aside from the development of Freese and Craig, the Cards have two fireballers that are major league ready for 2012. It would come as no shock if Chris Carpenter regresses due to his age, but even if he is 85% the pitcher he is now, the Cardinals will have a fearsome pitching staff come second half of 2012 and beginning of 2013. Both Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez are aces in the making, with Miller ready to produce now. Martinez may need some additional development to start 2012, but the originally drafted Red Sox throws in the upper 90′s, touching triple digits at times even into the later innings.

There is no discounting the major loss in production that losing the best hitter of all time will have on the Cards, but not all is lost. With some minor complimentary pieces added, they could be a force over the next 4-5 years. There is a press conference with Tony LaRussa scheduled and rumor is a possible retirement. If so, it’s possible that Dave Duncan moves over to take the reigns. He has been reluctant to a management opportunity in the past, but a promotion in St. Louis would be completely different circumstances, ones which I believe Duncan would embrace.

Now there is less and less room for error in front offices, and clubs are finding value in players that they previously overlooked. Teams are finding an even more “true” value for all the analytical metrics out there. Stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) are a way for the less statistically inclined, but hardcore fan to take a look at a players overall value. The counting stats that almost everyone can relate to are taking a backseat to true value-based stats. This is the concept behind Money Ball, but it’s just becoming common knowledge and lingo now.

St. Louis Cardinals are a great example of a mid-market team capitalizing on their peak skill level. They may (and probably will) lose arguably the best hitter of all-time in the off-season to free agency, but their team is deep, and there is a wave of talent coming up that will allow them to soften the blow of losing Pujols. Other mid-market teams are losing these types of players and taking years, if not decades to recover.

That’s what makes this series so interesting. You have the Rangers powerful lineup full of sluggers, and big power arms. Then you have the Adam Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals with an AL-style lineup with depth and a bullpen that is performing well at the right time. That’s really the key to playoff baseball, getting in a rhythm when it matters most. You can say that teams play 162 games all year to lose a small series and be out of contention and denote the importance of the playoffs, or you can take it for what it is and enjoy it. I choose to enjoy it, and relish at how incredibly close in talent these two teams are.

Enjoy this World Series and think about how the game has changed. Embrace it, because in a league with no salary cap, we’re finally seeing the day we never thought we would see.

Through my time as a professional poker player in college, I dabbled and experimented and educated myself in any way possible to gain an edge on the competition. For those of you whom are not aware, poker has adapted (especially online poker) from old school degenerate gamblers who are dumb as rocks, to extremely intelligent and talented mathematicians who are ready and willing to exploit any edge they can identify. It has adapted beyond a game of cards, into a smaller, less complex version of the stock market. One of the topics I found extremely interesting was game theory. In essence, what game theory teaches you, or attempts to teach you is the way to “solve” a particular set of problems. In reality, that’s what any game is: a set of problems that must be solved as efficiently as possible to achieve the greatest result. As in poker, there is a few players who are so talented mathematically that they have “solved” heads-up limit hold’em to create a situation where no opponent can achieve an edge more than 50%. Incredible, but even a computer cannot beat these brilliant minds when playing optimally over a big enough sample size.

Baseball analysis is advancing at light speed. The terms the average fan uses now were advanced concepts 10 years ago. The thing that GM’s are using now are ways to come as close to an optimal decision as possible, all things considered of course. They may not be right every single time, but they’re right more often.. and that’s all you can really do in business, in the markets, and in life. Using mathematics with an ever-increasing sample size is allowing the brilliant minds to undercover things the naked eye can’t and won’t see. About a month ago I was on a plane and thought of how many similar parts there are to poker, investing and baseball.

So I proposed a question that I still don’t quite have the answer to: Is it possible to apply game theory to pitch selection. And if so, are pitchers and/or pitching coaches currently using these methods in pre-game preparation and analysis of opposing pitchers? If a pitcher throws a 3-2 fastball too often, he’s not optimally presenting enough of a portfolio of pitches and will likely be hit hard. Almost anybody can figure this out, but is there room for improvement and who is capable of doing this? The first guy that comes to mind is Cliff Lee. He is mechanically sound, and doesn’t give away what he is throwing. He is able to throw 5-6 different pitches and command/control them all with great proficiency. He often throws a pitch that you don’t expect him to because he has the ability to locate every pitch in his arsenal. But is that feel, or does he apply math to his pitching sequences? I have no clue because I am not his pitching coach, but it’s interesting to think about and if this is something pitching coaches and organizations have philosophically taken on.

What do you think?

Asdrubal Cabrera image taken from Google Images

There just has to be a big bat out there somewhere. At least that’s what the Indians keep thinking. According to press conferences from various front office personnel over the past week, the team claims they have achieved all of the offseason goals they set for themselves except for one: finding a big bat to add to the lineup.

One of the goals that were cited in these discussions was that they needed more depth in many areas on the team. They recently made a move to add some depth when they dealt for Russ Canzler with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Canzler was named MVP of the International League (AAA) last year after he played in 131 games during which he started at four different positions. Among his accomplishments, were leading the league in slugging percentage and doubles. Overall, he batted .314 with 18 homeruns and produced 83 RBIs on the season.

The Indians also recently came to terms with left handed reliever Rafael Perez on a one year contract worth $2.005 million. The contract allowed the team to avoid going to arbitration over Perez’s 2012 salary. Perez played his fifth full season with the Tribe in 2011 when he went 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 71 appearances.

Another move the Indians recently made was to sign additional first basemen to compete with Canzler and Matt LaPorta for the first base job in spring training. The team may have found their man in Casey Kotchman who they inked to a one year deal worth $3 million.

Kotchman has played for five different teams during his eight year major league career and has been a consistent hitter, posting a career average of .268 with 59 career homeruns. While he may not have the strongest bat for a first baseman in the league, his fielding percentage of .998 is the highest in Major League history when compared to all first basemen who have at least 700 games in that position.

The last player the Indians have to agree to terms with in order to avoid arbitration is All Star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. Recent reports state that the Tribe and Cabrera are not only in talks to avoid arbitration, but are also working on a longer term extension that would seemingly keep Cabrera in Cleveland for most of his prime. Cabrera, who recently won Athlete of the Year at the Cleveland Sports Awards, was no doubt the most exciting player to watch for the Tribe last year.

To follow-up on news reported in last month’s edition of Indians reflections, Tribe pitcher Fausto Carmona, legally known as Roberto Hernendez Heredia, seems no closer to rejoining the team. The Tribe does not currently have to pay Carmona any of the $7 million from the contract he was under primarily because it now isn’t a legally binding contract due to the incorrect name and date of birth. The Indians still hold the rights to Carmona and have examined what their options are if and when the pitcher is cleared to join them.

The Indians recently completed a tour around Northeast Ohio during which manager Manny Acta and four or five of his players would hold a type of press conference in the local malls for fans to have a chance to ask questions and get autographs. Despite the fact that the Indians did not finish strong last season, Tribe fans still came out in droves to support their home team, many able to walk away with autographs from those who they believe to be the future of the organization and who may take them to the promise land of the playoffs.

There are certainly still some moves to make and players to sign to the famous but inevitable Minor League contract with a Spring Training invite, but many of the Tribe’s brass feel confident they currently have a team that can compete for a Central Division title. Spring Training games officially start for the Tribe on Saturday March 3 when they face off against their interstate rival, the Cincinnati Reds.