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The recent trade of Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners to the New York Yankees has created a lot of buzz, both in baseball circles and fantasy baseball debates. In regard to fantasy value, many people have stated that Pineda’s value immediately increases with his trade from the lowly Mariners to the mighty Bronx Bombers. Why is this? Simply because he will win more games. Or so the theory goes.

It got me thinking. Since Wins are an entire category in most fantasy baseball leagues, there is always the chance that pitchers will get over-valued simply because they play for good teams (and thus should have the opportunity to win more games). I don’t like chasing Wins. Never have. Never will. The deciding factors which come into play when determining if a starting pitcher will be awarded a Win are far too diverse and reliant upon external factors to ever be predicted accurately.

A talented pitcher may throw for seven solid innings, surrendering only one earned run but if his team’s offense scores no runs, that pitcher is faced with a loss. Conversely, a pitcher may go six innings and give up seven earned runs but if his offense comes up big with eight runs of their own, that pitcher gets a cheap +1 in the Win category.

So, what’s the bottom line? It is simply too unpredictable to go chasing Wins in fantasy baseball. By looking at other factors, you will be much better served.

Going back to the example of Pineda, he is moving from one of baseball’s worst teams to one of the best. As such, it makes sense to predict that he will naturally be in line to see an increase in his Win total and as such, his fantasy value is on the rise. However, pitching in the American League East is much more treacherous than pitching in the American League West so Pineda may be in line to see some regression in his outlying statistics such as ERA and WHIP. Is this risk worth the chance of an extra Win or two over the course of 30 starts? Toronto, Tampa Bay and Boston all scored significantly more runs than the L.A. Angels or Oakland Athletics in 2011.

A better strategy would be to draft and fill your fantasy baseball roster with pitchers who display extraordinary skills, regardless of the uniform they wear. Pitchers like Madison Bumgarner (SF), Cory Luebke (SD),Brandon McCarthy (OAK) and Scott Baker (MIN) all have shown talent and promising peripheral statistics but are often undervalued by your fellow fantasy owners because the teams they play for don’t pile up the wins.

By choosing pitchers from winning teams, you may give yourself an opportunity to be in a position to pick up a few extra Wins. However, by focusing on one category too strongly, you may just overlook pitchers who can help you in several other categories.

In fantasy baseball, the only Wins you should be chasing are those against your league opponents.

Adam Wainwright photo taken from Zimbio

A few weeks ago Chris McBrien offered a great list of fantasy baseball sleepers, as well as an excellent explanation of their role on your team for the 2012 season. However, as we all know, you can never be too prepared for your fantasy baseball draft! With that said, I have decided to dive in a little deeper into the theoretical sleeper pool to find some of the deep sleepers. Adam Wainwright is certainly a player who may be undervalued entering this season and deemed a sleeper, but he’s also a household name who will be drafted in the upper half of most drafts. Drafting sleepers like Adam Wainwright can help you win your league, but I’m interested in finding the players you will grab with the last picks in your draft that have your league-mates scratching their heads while you cheer in victory.

So, without further ado, here is my list of deep sleepers at catcher and the infield for the American and National League.

Please note that my projections are assuming regular playing time for each player and that each prediction should be seen as more of a baseline rather than a ceiling.

AL: Salvator Perez – Kansas City Royals. In his 39 game cup of coffee in 2011, Salvador Perez impressed hitting .331 with 3 HR and 21 RBI, and he’ll still only be 21 years old when the 2012 season starts! His average was aided by an unsustainable .362 BABIP and he won’t be hitting 30 HRs anytime soon (or ever), but realistically how many catchers actually will? Even with tempered expectations, Perez should be able to hit above .280 with 10 HRs in an underrated lineup, which is pretty solid production considering you can draft him in the late rounds after everyone else has secured their catching slot.  Young players like Perez, especially at catcher can bust (I’m looking at you, Matt Wieters circa 2010), but with the minimal risk it would take to draft Perez, he’s certainly a solid sleeper to keep in mind.

Projection: .285/10/60/60/1

NL: Devin Mesoraco – Cincinnati Reds. When the Reds let catcher Ramon Hernandez leave via free agency this year they were left with Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco as replacements. Ryan Hanigan may have the “experience” that an old-school (aka stubborn) manager like Dusty Baker may prefer, but all bets are on the Reds letting Mesoraco, one of their top prospects, take the reins as the starter. Mesoraco’s power has slowed down as he has moved up the ranks in the minors, but he has always displayed a solid eye at the plate, and given Cincinnati’s friendly ball park and above average lineup, Mesoraco can certainly provide a lot of value at catcher for your fantasy team at a pick with little to no risk.

Projection: .260/18/65/65/2

Other potential sleepers: J.P. Arencibia, Chris Iannetta and Wilson Ramos.

AL: Kendrys Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (I still can’t believe this is their actual team name). The last time Kendrys Morales was playing he was having a successful follow-up to his breakout campaign, proving he wasn’t a fluke. However, that was in 2010 and Morales unfortunately hasn’t seen the field since. The addition of Pujols to the Angels lineup creates a potential logjam in the Angels lineup with Morales, Bobby Abreu, Mark Trumbo, Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter all sharing time for OF/DH spots, but if Morales is healthy he is the best of the bunch. Now, that is a very, very big if, but wouldn’t you rather roll the dice with Morales over a “proven” (aka boring) guy like James Loney? I wouldn’t recommend drafting Morales as your starting first basemen (not a knock against his ability, more his fragility) but at corner infield, utility or as a backup, Morales could be special.

Projection: .285/24/70/80/1

NL: Anthony Rizzo –  Chicago Cubs. Last offseason the San Diego Padres acquired Anthony Rizzo in a package in return for former Padre-great Adrian Gonzalez. This offseason, the Padres acquired another young first basemen in Yonder Alonso, which made Anthony Rizzo expandable leading to him being traded to the Chicago Cubs. Rizzo certainly isn’t complaining as he couldn’t ask for a better change of scenery, leaving the pitching paradise of Petco (which suppressed his pull-heavy power) to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Rizzo struggled during his brief time in the majors in 2011, batting .141 in 153 at bats, but a large part of that was due to bad luck (.210 BABIP, regression is coming!). Also, Rizzo maintained an excellent eye at the plate throughout his struggles (13.7 BB%) which is a promising sign for his future. Rizzo won’t win the batting title this year, but if he’s playing every day, Rizzo could provide Carlos Pena-type production at a fraction of the cost.

Projection: .240/25/65/75/2

Other potential sleepers: Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Belt and Kyle Blanks.

AL: Mike Aviles – Boston Red Sox. Dustin Pedroia isn’t going anywhere, but Mike Aviles will be eligible at 2b this season and should be at least splitting the starting shortstop duties for the Red Sox with Nick Punto. Playing time might be an issue for Aviles, but at worst he’s a fantastic platoon option for the Red Sox and your fantasy team. Plus, how long will the Sox trot out Nick Punto if he’s batting .220? For his career, Aviles is a .290 hitter and has some pop (.170 ISO) against lefties, which is better than most second basemen. Aviles shouldn’t hurt you if you find out there are no other second basemen at the end of your draft, and he doubles as an excellent bench/rotation guy to play against favorable matchups.

Projection: .270/9/45/55/12

NL: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros. Altuve is the classic case of a player’s fantasy value being greater than his real-life value, and often that is a formula for a sleeper. Altuve has never been a top prospect but he’s always hit for a solid average and stolen a few bases at every stop in the minor leagues and that shouldn’t necessarily change in the majors. Although the Astros have one of the weaker lineups in the league, everyone benefits from batting near the top of the lineup and Altuve should be batting in the #2 slot, providing your fantasy team with plenty of opportunities to score runs and steal bases. Altuve’s skill set limits his ceiling, but he has a high floor, and you can certainly do worse at your 2b or MI slot. Let your league mates draft Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill, hoping to turn back the clocks, while you wait and draft Jose Altuve in the later rounds.

Projection: .285/5/75/50/20

Other potential sleepers: Sean Rodriguez, Johnny Giavotella and Brian Roberts (if he can play)

AL: Edwin Encarnacion- Toronto Blue Jays. Take a second and look at Encarnacion’s stats last year: .270, 17 HR , 55 RBI, 70 Runs, and 8 SB. Pretty good, right? That’s a better year than Kevin Youklis, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman had in 2011. I wouldn’t pencil in Encarnacion to have better numbers than those players in 2012 (well maybe Youklis), but he should achieve similar numbers at a discounted price, or several rounds later.

Projection:.260/21/75/70/6

NL: Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s hard to say it’s make or break time for any prospect nowadays considering Jose Bautista is now one of the better players in the league and Alex Gordon had a breakout last year, but at the very least, it’s an important year for Alvarez. Honestly, none of the “signs” are promising as Alvarez wasn’t even able to limit his strikeouts during his demotion to the minors last year (28.4 %). However, the pedigree is still there (former top prospect), he’s only 24 years old and in just 2010 Alvarez looked like a budding star. Last year Alvarez entered the season out of shape and it hurt him the entire year so if he starts off 2012 with a dud, don’t be afraid to cut your losses early. But late in the draft there aren’t many players who could hit 30-35 homers, don’t let a guy like Alvarez pass for your 2nd middle infielder or backup infielder.

Projection: .250/22/75/65/2

Other potential sleepers: Brent Morel, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall

AL: Erick Aybar – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (again, really?).  Question: How many SS hit 10 home runs and stole 30 bases? Answer: Two, Jimmy Rollins and Erick Aybar. That’s it. Erick Aybar has been a decent SS option for a few years now, but really had a break out year last year and nobody really noticed. I suppose that wouldn’t make him a sleeper for this year, but it’s so surprising how little love Aybar is getting at such a weak position that I had to put him on the list. Expecting a repeat breakout performance may be too much, but Aybar will steal 25-30 bases and hold his own in all the other categories. When your competition is picking up Ryan Theriot and Alex Gonzalez you’ll be happy with who you have.

Projection: .282/9/45/80/27

NL: Jed Lowrie – Houston Astros. The Astros may be the worst team in baseball, but their middle infield is full of sleepers! Jed Lowrie has one problem, he’s never been able to stay healthy for a full season and it eventually lead to his departure from Boston to Houston. It’s definitely a big concern (injury risk) and there isn’t necessarily any reason why it would vanish while he’s in Houston, but you should get solid production out of Lowrie when he’s healthy and when he’s hurt you get the added value of his replacement. At the very least, Lowrie should crush left-handed pitching (.326 11 HR, 58 RBI in 279 ABs in his career). Bottom line: If he can improve against righties in the weaker league and stay on the field, you could be looking at a top 10 shortstop.

Projection: .280/14/60/60/3

Other potential sleepers: Zack Cosart, Eduardo Nunez (if/when Alex Rodriguez gets hurt) and Ruben Tejada

Photo taken from Google Images

Image via Wikipedia

Neil Walker (PIT) –

Image taken from Google Imgaes via the Bleacher Report

The position of catcher is often a tricky one for fantasy baseball owners.

Often, the position is left until the later rounds in the fantasy draft and owners hope to simply pick up a catcher who will not hurt their fantasy roster too badly. One thing that can easily make or break your team is picking up a fantasy baseball sleeper for your catcher. When waiting until the later rounds in your draft, you will be hoping to nab yourself a sleeper pick, essentially a player who will provide better statistics relative to those players selected ahead of him. The key is to find players who slip past the other owners in your league and fall right into your hands, helping to deliver you a fantasy baseball victory.

Some catchers to consider as potential sleepers for the 2012 season:

A healthy Nick Hundley could put up "sleeper" catcher offensive numbers to yell about.

Nick Hundley (San Diego) – Hundley has settled into a pattern of amassing less than 300 at-bats, under 10 home runs and 40 or less runs batted in. Things most likely will not change in 2012. However, multiple injuries to his wrist, hand and elbow have essentially taken the bat out of his hands the past four seasons. He surged in August and September and leaves hope that he can produce over a full healthy season. He has 20-HR power and may challenge that benchmark in 2012.

Chris Iannetta (Los Angeles Angels) – I know what you are thinking … if a hitter doesn’t produce in Coors Field, what can we expect from him now that he no longer calls that park home? With a trade to the Angels, Iannetta should finally get a shot at more playing time in 2012. Hitting in one of the better line-ups in the American League won’t hurt either. Any offense featuring Albert Pujols is a potentially explosive one. Add to this the fact that Iannetta replaces one of the lightest-hitting catchers (Jeff Mathis) in all Major League Baseball, and Iannetta is primed to get a good opportunity to shine with his new club.

Ramon Hernandez (Colorado) – It’s been awhile since Hernandez had any fantasy clout (the 2006 season, to be exact) but with a move to Coors Field, anything is possible. He hasn’t cracked the 315 AB mark in three straight seasons but with the change of scenery, if he gets to 400+ ABs, he could net 15+ HR and 60+ RBI. That may put him ahead of several other late-round catchers and giving him some sleeper potential to boot.

Buster Posey (San Francisco) – When a player starts his season one-third of the way into the campaign, wins the Rookie of the Year Award and hits clean-up for the World Series champion, he is something special. When that player is a catcher, he’s even better. A collision at the plate caused him to miss the majority of 2011 due to injury. That may just keep enough owners away from drafting him early and let him slip right into your hands. A healthy Posey gives you a good batting average and the potential to hit 20 HR.

Kurt Suzuki (Oakland) – Suzuki’s fantasy value stemmed largely from his ability to deliver RBIs while hitting in the middle of the Athletics batting order. In 2011, he was dropped down in the lin- up and saw his RBI total drop from 71 in 2010 to 44 last season. Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham saw the lion’s share of the time hitting in the middle of the order in 2011. With both no longer in Oakland, Suzuki projects as the team’s cleanup hitter once again. Expect a nice rise in RBIs if this happens.

Geovany Soto (Chicago Cubs) – Soto hit the same number of HR (17) last season as he did in 2010. However it took him 100 more at-bats to do it. He also saw his BA plummet to a fantasy roster-killing .228. He seems to have fallen into the pattern of alternating good and bad statistical seasons. Hope for the trend to continue and for Soto to rebound in 2012.

Salvador Perez (Kansas City) - An imposing figure both behind the plate and at it (6’3”, 230 poundss), Perez has shown some pop in his bat in the minor leagues, including opposite-field power. While no one expects him to sustain the .362 batting average on balls in play of 2011 (in a small sample size of 148 ABs), he showed the ability to hit the ball with some authority for the Royals last season. Although a bit of a free swinger, Perez is still figuring out his game at 21 years of age and may surprise a few people in 2012.

Remember, it’s not where you draft your fantasy baseball catcher in 2012, it’s how well he performs relative to his draft position. If you nab yourself a gem in the late rounds who puts up first-round numbers, you have what it takes to start winning your league. Good luck in 2012!

Adam Dunn photo taken from Google Images

Fantasy baseball owners are no different than anyone else. Whether you are looking to buy a car, invest in a stock, pick up a CD of your favorite band or draft a player for your fantasy roster, everyone is searching for a deal. In fantasy sports, deals come in the form of players who are under-valued by your fellow fantasy owners at the draft table. These players are called fantasy baseball sleepers and can help you get the edge and possibly win your league. Most of these players have a good reason to be under-valued: they may be coming off an injury-riddled season; perhaps they have experienced a recent downturn in statistical production; maybe they have switched teams and have an undefined role with a new club. Whatever the reason, your competition at the fantasy draft may let these players slip down in their respective rankings. It’s your job to grab these fantasy sleepers at a place in the draft where they can produce better numbers than the players they will be drafted alongside.

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Here is a list of fantasy baseball sleepers, one at every position, who may be expected to provide a value to your roster and who may exceed the expectations of your fellow fantasy opponents.

Catcher – Nick Hundley (SD)

Sure, he plays in a terrible hitter’s park and has struggled mightily with injuries the past 4 seasons. However, if the definition of a fantasy baseball sleeper is a player who will slip down the list to a position where he can be drafted for value, then Hundley fits the bill. Nobody knows this guy and if he stays healthy he could challenge the 20 HR plateau.

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First Base – Adam Lind (TOR)

After putting up a monster season in 2009, Lind was suddenly on everyone’s radar. However, back-to-back years of mediocre overall numbers have caused many fantasy baseball owners to shy away from the Blue Jays’ DH/1B. If the Jays land a big free agent bat in the off season, Lind may have some of the pressure taken off of him and he may respond. He had an amazing first half in 2011. He could easily do it again over a full season.

Second Base – Aaron Hill (ARI)

Talk about a fall from grace. After setting franchise records for HR at second base, Hill went from hero to goat to finding himself traded to the National League West within a 2 season span. His BABIP in 2010 was .196 and .268 in 2011. You have to believe that number simply has to increase. Coupled with his invigorated approach at the plate in Arizona, Hill may just pay dividends in 2012.

Third Base – Mark Reynolds (BAL)

Everyone’s favorite whipping boy switched positions in 2011 and saw an improvement in his offensive statistics as a result. Perhaps the pressure of playing the hot corner affected his play at the plate. His slash line as a third baseman: .210/.315/.451. After the move to first base: .250/.345/.566. The Orioles expect to play him at 1B in 2012 but fear not, he will still qualify at 3B in fantasy leagues.

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Short Stop – Dee Gordon (LAD)

A frightening lack of patience at the plate is the only thing holding Gordon back from stealing 80 bases. He walked a mere 7 times in 233 plate appearances in 2011. If he can find a way to add walks to his .305 batting average, he may steal his way into fantasy conversations next season. In the meantime, consider him sleeper material.

Outfield – Shin-Shoo Choo (CLE)

Injuries and a DUI led to a horrific season for Choo. A bona fide top 50 fantasy pick heading into 2011, he may have fallen off the radar for many not willing to overlook last year’s fiasco. A return to the 20/20, .300 average seasons of 2009-2010 is very likely. He shouldn’t fall too far in most drafts but he may be a deal.

Designated Hitter – Adam Dunn (CHW)

The most consistent offensive player in major league baseball fell flat on his face in a historic way last season. Players of this consistency and talent level don’t come along very often. What did we learn in 2011? That Dun is a human being, not a robot. That’s all. Expect him to regroup and return to form with 35+ HR and 100 RBI.

Starting Pitcher – Adam Wainwright (STL)

Pitchers can not only return from Tommy John surgery, they can thrive afterward. See Tim Hudson, Billy Wagner and Josh Johnson for recent proof of this. Heading into 2011, Wainwright was a top 5 pitcher. Entering 2012, he won’t be on many top 30 lists. Let him slip and grab him just after the middle tier hurlers start to go (think Doug Fister and Max Scherzer for comparisons).

Relief Pitcher – Sergio Santos (TOR)

No one expected Santos to land the closers role in Chicago. However, in 2011 he did exactly that. With less competition in Toronto’s bullpen and playing for a team that may very well contend in 2012, Santos could be a draft day steal.

There are no sure things in baseball. This is especially true in fantasy baseball. However, if you take a chance or two on a few sleepers in your draft, you may just get the edge on your opponents. After all, having the edge is what it takes to win in fantasy baseball. Good luck in 2012!

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As you are most likely aware, Milwaukee Brewer’s outfielder and reigning National League MVP Ryan Braun has tested positive for having a banned Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) in his system. As a result, he now faces a 50-game suspension from major league baseball. Many observers have been quick to condemn the slugger but it is probably best to reserve judgment on Braun until all of the facts are known. Regardless, what is important in fantasy baseball circles are the implications this will have on Ryan Braun’s fantasy value in 2012.

According to many, Braun was at the top of most lists which rank the top fantasy outfielders for 2012. That is surely to change with the allegations that have come to light.  Not only does this affect Braun’s fantasy value, it has an effect on where other outfielders are ranked as well as an indirect effect on the value of his Milwaukee teammates.

With Prince Fielder likely leaving town via free agency, Braun was already faced with hitting in the middle of a Brewers batting order without one of the best power threats in the game protecting him in the lineup. This would be a major concern to a less talented offensive player but is still bound to have some degree of effect on Braun’s statistics. Being asked to carry a larger portion of the offensive load puts him in a greater leadership role with the team. These accusations of cheating make it more difficult for Braun to be viewed in a leadership capacity by his teammates, his management or fantasy owners.

Regardless of a player’s ability to put up monster offensive numbers (and Braun is very capable of this), missing 50 games will greatly reduce his fantasy value. In 150 games last season, Braun amassed 109 runs, 33 home runs and 111 RBI. A season truncated by 50 games looks more like 72 runs, 22 home runs and 73 RBI. These numbers are not bad if your name is Freddie Freeman but certainly knock Braun significantly down the list of offensive players. For those fantasy players in head-to-head leagues, missing Braun for the first 2 months could be devastating. Draft accordingly.

If Braun faces a suspension, the effect will be also felt by his teammates. Expect newly signed third basemen Aramis Ramirez to hit in the middle of the line up and get the lion’s share of RBI opportunities. If he stays healthy, Ramirez could be a nice fantasy corner infielder. Also, don’t expect to see Corey Hart hitting out of the lead-off spot as he did at times last season. His bat will be needed in the heart of the order and will affect his numbers accordingly.

Until his appeal is heard and judgment passed, it would be safe to treat Braun as though he will miss the first 50 games of the 2012 season. In fantasy draft terms, that should put him firmly in the company of outfielders such as Alex Rios or Adam Jones.

Perhaps the most important fantasy baseball impact in this whole situation is the status of Matt Kemp who instantly becomes the top fantasy baseball outfielder for 2012.

Photo taken from Google Images

The more I play fantasy baseball, the more I love the game of baseball itself. There is no better way to closely follow box scores, standings, player trends, hot streaks, cold slumps and the inevitable friendly competition which arises from trying to best your opponents then by participating in fantasy baseball. However, more and more I am approached by people interested in this mysterious game and all of its quirks and quarks. Since I love the game of baseball, I love to talk about the sport in all of its forms – both on the field and off. For the uninitiated, here are the basics of fantasy baseball:

Fantasy Formats:

There are several different forms of fantasy baseball. You can play rotisserie (or, “roto” as it is often called), head-to-head, points leagues or many other formats. However, the one consistent element in all formats is that a group of owners each draft a “team” made up of real-life baseball players. As those players accumulate statistics on the field (in real games) their fantasy owners accumulate these same stats in an effort to gain more overall stats then their fantasy opponents. For example, if the home run total of your entire fantasy team is better than the home run total of your opponent, you win (that category at least!). Regardless of the format, your ultimate goal is to accumulate better overall stats than your opponents.

Fantasy Draft:

Every fantasy baseball league is a little different but most hold an annual “draft” where the owners choose the real-life players that will make up their fantasy rosters. Some leagues are called “dynasty” or “keeper” leagues because owners may keep some (or all) of their players from season-to-season.

Statistics Categories:

Much the same way that fantasy leagues have differing formats, there are also many different statistical categories that leagues will employ. A common stats scoring system is based upon 5 hitting categories (often Runs Scored, Home Runs, Batting Average, Runs Batted In & Stolen Bases) and 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, Earned Run Average & WHIP), often referred to as “5×5” scoring. Regardless of the stats used in any particular league, the idea is the same: try to accumulate better stats than your opponents collect. In addition to your standard league scoring system, fantasy baseball side bets are incredibly popular as well.

Tips and Tricks:

There are as many tips, tricks and pieces of advice as there are fantasy baseball formats (in fact some websites are devoted to this!). However, there are some universal tidbits that are good to follow. Baseball players are notoriously inconsistent (more so than perhaps any other sports), but this holds especially true for pitchers. Therefore, it is a good idea to select hitters prior to pitchers in your draft to lessen the impact of inconsistent pitching statistics. A good rule of thumb is to select hitters with at least 4 of your top 5 draft picks. Pitchers may always be picked up off the waiver wire throughout the baseball season, whereas good hitters are much scarcer once the season has begun.

Fantasy Baseball Rule #1:

More important than your league’s format, draft structure, scoring categories or any tips you may give (or receive) is fantasy baseball rule #1: Have FUN.

If you are not a baseball fan, or just getting involved in enjoying the sport, fantasy baseball can help you dive right into the game in getting to know stats and the players. As a baseball fan, getting involved in fantasy baseball just might make you an even bigger baseball fan in the long run. I highly recommend fantasy baseball to everyone and remember, more important than anything else, have fun!

Photo taken from Google Images

Whether you run a major league franchise or a fantasy baseball team, Prince Fielder represents a risk to your team’s long term success. There has been much ado in the sports media recently about Prince Fielder perhaps joining a new team (or re-signing with his old club) as a free agent for the 2012 season. Armed with a professional athlete’s ego and uber-agent Scott Boras in tow, Fielder has made it clear he is looking for a long-term contract. Upon first glance, this looks like a no-brainer. He is a 27-year old slugger coming off a season which saw him hit 38 HR (good for 2^nd in the National League) and 120 RBI (also 2^nd in the N.L.). Based upon his age and his stats alone, Fielder looks like the kind of player that a major league team (or fantasy baseball owner) would fight tooth-and-nail to place on their roster. However, that might not be the wisest of moves.

Fielder has been remarkably consistent over his career. He has played in 157, 158, 159, 162, 161 and 162 games since 2006. Consistency like that is pretty rare this side of Cal Ripken, Jr. However, past consistency is only one aspect to consider when evaluating a player’s potential. Heading into the 2011 season, fantasy baseball owners were electrified with the prospect of owning a certain player coming off a run of steady home run totals from 2005 through 2010. This particular slugger’s home run totals through that time frame read as follows: 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, 38. You would be hard pressed to beat consistency such as this. This player was sure to deliver another clockwork season of offensive production, right? Not if you drafted Adam Dunn, who both boasted those aforementioned HR totals as well as one of the worst offensive seasons in history in 2011.

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Fielder has also been remarkably durable for a big man. He has only missed a total of 13 games since the start of the 2006 season. However, this doesn’t mean he is a viable option for the next decade, and no mistake about it, Fielder will be looking for a contract that runs approximately 10 years. Big bodies tend to break down faster than their slimmer counterparts. One needs to look no further than the career declines experienced by players such as Mo Vaughn, Kent Hrbek or his father, Cecil Fielder for proof of this. The question is not whether he has been durable in the past. He has. The question is how durable he will continue to be as his large frame endures the constant wear and tear of lumbering through 6 full major league seasons.

Another issue that affects his on-field major league team but not the majority of fantasy leagues is the issue of his defense. His last name may be “Fielder” but this is not reflective in his defensive play. His UZR has been a negative statistic in 5 of his 6 full seasons with 2 seasons (2006 and 2008) almost reaching double digits (-9.4 and -9.2, respectively). Although most fantasy leagues do not consider defensive metrics in their scoring systems, it is something to consider when evaluating the overall strengths and weaknesses of a baseball player.

Although his short-term prospects for success look promising, if you have an eye for the future (especially in dynasty fantasy baseball leagues), this Prince may end up performing more like a Court Jester before his contract expires.

Halladay photo taken from Google Images

There are two schools of thought when it comes to fantasy baseball starting pitchers. The first states that you should grab some quality starters early in your draft (or use keeper spots for holding onto them). The second theory states that starting pitchers are way too inconsistent and therefore you should ignore pitchers until late in your draft. The best strategy probably lies somewhere squarely in the middle of the two. Whichever approach you take when crafting your fantasy baseball roster, you will want to at least grab one of the following top tier fantasy baseball starting pitchers. After all, under standard 5×5 fantasy baseball rules, half of your statistical categories will be determined by your pitchers.

1)     Roy Halladay (PHI) –

The reason many fantasy owners forsake starting pitchers until the later rounds is due to the fact that pitchers can be wildly inconsistent from year-to-year. Then there is Halladay. He is the most consistent elite pitcher in the game. He is also the best in the business. Money in the bank.

2)     Cliff Lee (PHI) –

If you can’t get Halladay, you don’t have to look very far for the second best fantasy baseball starting pitcher. Doc’s teammate Lee was possibly the best pitcher in the game after June 1^st last season. A poor start to the season had some fantasy owners panicking early but with his peripherals in line, there was no real reason to doubt him. Expect another great season in 2011.

3)     Tim Lincecum (SF) –

His 4 year LOW in strikeouts was the 220 he put up last season. Both his WHIP and ERA were better in 2011 over his 2010 numbers. With any run support at all, he could easily put up 20 wins. He’s a fantasy stud.

4)     Justin Verlander (DET) –

Topping many experts’ lists for 2012, there is no doubt the Tigers ace had a monster season last year. However, he has traditionally struggled in April and last year was the first his ERA was below 3.37. The strikeouts have always been there and once he puts up back-to-back monster years, he’ll move up the list. For now, he’s just behind the big boys.

5)     Felix Hernandez (SEA) –

So long as you temper your expectations in regard to Wins, “King Felix” is a good bet to deliver some great fantasy stats in 2012. His ERA rose by over run from 2010 partially due to a 40 point increase in BABIP as his xFIP remained steady. Seattle can’t be much worse than they were in 2011, so a few more Wins wouldn’t completely surprise. Get him.

6)     Clayton Kershaw (LA) –

Deemed the best pitcher in the NL by the BBWAA in 2011, Kershaw has always had nasty stuff. His only issue in the past was his control. He cut a whopping 1.49 BB/9 off his numbers from 2010. Can he keep that control intact? Possibly; however, until we see it consistently, Kershaw falls just shy of the top of the list.

7)     C.C. Sabathia (NYY) –

A free agent, where Sabathia ends up will affect his fantasy value. If he stays in the Bronx, the prolific Yankees offense will lead to another monster Win total (19, 21 and 19 over the past 3 seasons). If he lands elsewhere, expect him to continue to amass innings and strikeouts with his usual aplomb. He’s about as reliable as they come.

     Dan Haren (LAA) –

Haren is reminiscent of Greg Maddux in the sense that he is about as exciting as a bowl of Jell-O, yet he continues to put up great stats year-in and year-out. Discounting the first half of 2010, Haren has been rock steady with his ERA and xFIP over the past 4 seasons. For some reason, he has never put up big Win totals despite amassing huge innings year after year. He’s very good but not quite elite.

9)     Jon Lester (BOS) –

Picked by many to be a top 3 starting pitcher prior to 2011, Lester always seems to fall just short of the best in the business. He is yet to put up a season ERA under 3.00 and higher Win totals are expected from a pitcher with his stuff and Boston’s offensive punch backing him up. Draft him at the low end of the top ten starting pitchers and you’ll do just fine.

10) Madison Bumgarner (SF) –

On June 21, 2011 Bumgarner faced the Minnesota Twins in an inter-league game and gave up 8 ER while retiring only 1 batter. It was one of the worst performances in fantasy baseball history. All young pitchers will take their lumps. Bumgarner rebounded to be one of the best control pitchers in the game in the second half last season (19 BB after the break). He’s primed to break out big time in 2012. Watch for it.

When considering fantasy baseball starting pitchers for 2012, if you are able to solidify your roster with one of these top ten pitchers, you will find the remaining depth at the position is favorable in building around your staff ace. Save taking chances for the later rounds and grab a keeper for the front end of your rotation and you’ll give yourself a better chance at locking up half of your 5×5 stats. Good luck in 2012!

1)     Ryan Braun (MIL) – Not only did Braun’s HR total return to the +30 range, his 33 stolen bases almost equalled his previous 2 season totals combined. Extremely durable, Braun delivers in 5 fantasy categories. He is a pure fantasy stud.

2)     Matt Kemp (LAD) – Falling 1 HR shy of a 40-40 season, Kemp was perhaps the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Due mainly to a poor 2010 season, Kemp doesn’t yet have the consistency of Braun and thus is second on the list of outfielders. A bounce back in average and SB made Kemp a stud in 2011. Expect more of the same next year.

3)     Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) – What a difference a year makes. Coming off a miserable, injury-riddled 2010 campaign, Ellsbury bounced back huge with an MVP-type season in 2011 adding power to his speed game. His power seemed to come out of nowhere but it is not completely unheard of for a player to add power to his game at 28 years old. Look for a dip in his 2012 HR total but he will still deliver a great fantasy performance.

4)     Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) – You may be shocked to find Ichiro so high on the list but I cannot help but to think this massive baseball talent has one monster season left in him. He is way too proud and his decline in numbers in 2011 will not sit well with him. With an 86% SB success rate last season, his speed game remains intact and a slight bump in power would not surprise. Worth the gamble.

5)     Justin Upton (ARI) – Staying healthy and playing more than 138 games (his previous season high prior to 2011) will be the key to ongoing success for the youngest Upton brother. The tools are there but 2012 will be an interesting season in his career. Expect a similar season to 2011.

6)     Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Cargo has the talent to be the best fantasy player in the game. Health issues continue to plague him and make him too risky to be drafted higher than he is ranked here. Even in a monster 2010 campaign he missed 17 games. His numbers at Coors Field greatly affect his overall stats but as long as he continues to wear a Rockies jersey, you can take the massive home park stats to the bank.

7)     Matt Holliday (STL) – Last season proved that speed is no longer a weapon in Holliday’s arsenal. He can still be counted upon to deliver power and average but nagging injuries took their toll throughout 2011. He is clearly no longer the fantasy stud that he was in his Colorado heyday but he still has something to offer.

8)     Carl Crawford (BOS) – Players have bad years. It’s a fact of life. Just don’t expect players of Crawford’s talent level to have back-to-back poor seasons. Expect a rebound to the tune of .300, 15 HR and 40+ SB. A lot was made of his batting order position in 2011 but if he hits in the heart of the order, his RBI totals will increase as well. Consider 2011 a blip on the radar.

9)     Michael Bourn (ATL) – When you can find a player who totally dominates a particular category (in Bourn’s case, he has led the NL in SB for 3 straight years) you want to lock him up for your fantasy team. The problem with Bourn lies in the fact that if he fails to deliver stolen bases, he will be a fantasy bust. While this is true, hitting from the top of the Braves line up and not showing any signs of slowing down, Bourn is worth counting on to lead your fantasy team in the SB category again in 2012.

10) Curtis Granderson (NYY) – Sure he strikes out a lot and is inconsistent on the base paths but Granderson’s no longer hitting in the leadoff spot (as he did often in Detroit) and his swing is perfect for Yankee Stadium. Expect the big HR totals to continue as well as 20+ SB. Add to that the run production that comes from hitting in a potent line up and Granderson is fantasy baseball gold.

When considering fantasy baseball outfielders for 2012, there are many options to supply your roster with speed, power, average and run production. It is a good strategy to look to the outfield to fill in any statistical weaknesses not found in the rest of your roster. Good luck in 2012!