Baseball Reflections » Nick’s Fantasy Focus

Seattle Mariners Trade Cliff Lee to Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak: Fantasy Impact

Nick — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 20:13:45 +0000

After weeks of anticipation, Seattle Mariners’ pitcher Cliff Lee finally has a new home.

Just hours after it was reported that the New York Yankees were close to acquiring Lee’s services, the Mariners dealt the 31-year-old southpaw to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Justin Smoak and minor leaguers Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson.

Mariners’ reliever Mark Lowe was also sent to Texas as part of the deal.

In terms of fantasy value, Lee’s has nowhere to go but down.

After 13 starts (103 2/3 innings) this season, Lee owns a sparkling 2.34 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, both of which top his 2008 Cy Young award-winning totals. He also boasts a jaw-dropping K/BB ratio of 89/6.

In his last eight starts, Lee has lasted at least eight innings seven times, including three complete games.

Lee’s BABIP and strand rate are normal, but his xFIP is nearly a full run higher than his current ERA.

In Seattle, Lee benefited from the spacious fields of Safeco (the fourth best park to pitch in terms of runs-scored according to MLB Park Factors). Texas, however, is the fifth worst park to pitch in terms of run-scored.

Since 2008 (Lee’s Cy Young season), the former Expo, Indian and Phillie has pitched in Arlington three times. In those three starts as the visiting pitcher, Lee was rocked to the tune of a 7.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 19 innings.

It is worth noting, however, that Lee allowed just two runs in nine innings at Rangers Ballpark earlier this season.

Still, a slight drop-off should be expected. Is he still a top-10 pitcher for the remainder of the season? Probably. Top-five? Absolutely not.

Seattle’s big return, switch-hitting first baseman Justin Smoak, will be inserted into the Mariners’ lineup, possibly in the six-hole. His value takes a slight hit playing for an offensively-challenged team in a pitcher’s park.

The potential middle-of-the-order superstar has experienced some tough luck through his first 235 major-league at-bats, falling victim to a .238 BABIP. Smoak’s 23.9 percent line drive rate, however, suggests better days are ahead. (For more on Justin Smoak, including 2010 projections, click here.)

Smoak’s departure opens a spot in the Rangers’ lineup for Chris Davis, who was recalled from Triple-A on Friday. In 293 plate appearances with Oklahoma City this season, the 24-year-old has hit 19 doubles, 10 homers and boasts a .354/.403/.555 triple slash.

While Davis struggled mightily with the Rangers earlier this season, his 2009 second-half performance (six HRs, 26 RBI, .308 average in 133 at-bats) following a short minor league stint could be a sign of things to come.

His raw power is undeniable, but so too are his strikeout totals. He’s worth a cautious look in most leagues.

Blake Beavan is a former first-rounder who – at 6-foot-7, 250 pounds – projects as a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater. The 21-year-old owns a 2.78 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and a 1.0 BB/9 in 110 innings at Double-A this season.

Neither Josh Lueke or Matt Lawson rank among the Rangers’ top-30 prospects according to Baseball America. Lueke boasts ridiculous strikeout and walk rates in 38 1/3 relief innings this season between Single-A and Double-A, but at age 25, his long-term value is bleak. Matt Lawson is a 24-year-old second baseman/outfielder playing in Double-A. He’s a long shot prospect and shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar.

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Brandon Phillips: Why You Should Sell High on The Cincinnati Reds’ Second Baseman

Nick — Mon, 05 Jul 2010 11:00:33 +0000

Through 82 team games (324 at-bats) this season, Reds‘ second baseman Brandon Phillips is tied with Boston’s Kevin Youkilis for the major league lead in runs, with 62.

Phillips also has 10 homers and 10 steals at the mid-way point, putting him on pace for his fourth consecutive 20/20 season.

Perhaps the most surprising stat, however, is Phillips’ batting average. In four and a half seasons with the Reds, Phillips has never finished with a batting average higher than .288, and his career mark is an uninspiring .269.

Yet somehow, the recently-turned 29-year-old is batting .309 this season and appears to be gaining steam as the season progresses:

April: .236
May: 316
June: 373

One explanation for Phillips’ success is Dusty Baker’s decision to move him up in the lineup, opposed to batting him in the cleanup spot where he’s hit in recent seasons.

In 206 at-bats hitting first or second this season, Phillips sports a .330 batting average with 45 runs, six homers, but just 14 RBI.

This explains the spike in Phillips’ run-scoring total, but doesn’t necessarily provide a reasonable explanation for a batting clip that’s 40 points above his career average.

Phillips’ .335 BABIP, however, could.

His current line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates, don’t suggest a change in Phillips’ swing, as they are in line with his career marks.

Phillips is striking out at a 13.9 percent clip, which is a bit lower than his career mark (16.3 percent), but higher than his total from last year (12.8 percent).

Phillips’ tendency to hack at pitches off the plate hasn’t changed, as his o-swing rate (30.6 percent) is nearly identical to his career mark of 30.7 percent (2010 MLB average: 28.5 percent).

His contact rate (81.6 percent) is up slightly from recent years, which may suggest Phillips has shortened his swing. This, however, still isn’t enough to explain his unusually high average.

Based on these facts, there doesn’t appear to be a drastic change in Phillips’ approach at the plate. Therefore, we can only assume that his elevated batting average is a result of two things: His new spot in the Reds’ batting order, and pure dumb luck.

In baseball terms, he’s simply hittin’ ‘em where they ain’t. Unfortunately for Phillips’ fantasy owners, pure dumb luck isn’t as reliable as actual talent.

Not only are the law of averages working against Phillips, but his history is too.

In 1,934 career at-bats before the All-Star Break, Phillips owns a .275 batting average. Following the Mid Summer Classic, however, that mark drops to .261.

Not surprisingly, May and June are generally his best months, while he tends to struggle in July (.258) and September (.241).

Because of recent injuries to Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia, the second base position is somewhat thin. However, if you have the opportunity to pair Phillips with someone else for Robinson Cano, or acquire Martin Prado and another piece for Phillips, it’s worth a shot.

Phillips turns 30 next year, and both his power and speed numbers are declining.

HR/FB rates:

2007: 15.9%
2008: 13.2%
2009: 11.6%
2010: 10.3%

Stolen base efficiency:

2007: 32-of-40 (80%)
2008: 23-of-33 (69%)
2009: 25-of-34 (73%)
2010: 10-of-18 (55%)

Simply put, Phillips’ value will never be higher. He’s a great sell high option.

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San Francisco Giants Trade Catcher Bengie Molina to Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Nick — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 11:00:08 +0000

While the MLB trade deadline is more than four weeks away, the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers swapped catcher Bengie Molina for reliever Chris Ray and a player to be named later on Thursday.

Although this deal may appear insignificant on the surface, it’s important to understand how this trade effects not only the fantasy values of the players involved, but others as well.

Molina’s move from San Francisco to Texas obviously boosts his value; not only because he’s now batting in a much more potent lineup, but because of the home ballpark factor as well.

While the eldest Molina brother has struggled this season (.257 batting average, three HRs, 17 RBI in 202 at-bats), his three-year averages (.278 batting average, 18 HRs, 85 RBI) suggest there may be something left in the soon-to-be 36-year-old’s tank.

Despite his .257 batting average, Molina boasts a ridiculous 89.1 percent contact rate (MLB average is 81.0 percent).

In Texas, Molina figures to play five days a week and bat eighth between Justin Smoak and Julio Borbon.

If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, consider this: In 2,579 career at-bats before the All-Star Break, Molina has hit a HR every 37.3 at-bats. Following the Mid Summer Classic, however, he goes yard once every 28.2 at-bats.

He’s a decent deep league option, and is worth an add if you’re struggling to find a viable replacement for Victor Martinez.

With Molina out of the lineup in San Francisco, Buster Posey figures to settle in as the Giants every day catcher. In 27 games this year, the 23-year-old former first-round pick has started just two games at catcher this season.

Although he hit well in his first two weeks as a major leaguer (.429 batting average), Posey has struggled since, posting a .146 average in his last 14 games. Still, he’s batting .289 with one HR and 10 RBI through 97 at-bats overall.

Posey projects as a Joe Mauer-type player with great strike zone awareness and the ability to hit for a high average. His power upside, however, is likely no more than 15-20 bombs a year.

With Posey moving from first base to catcher, Pablo Sandoval figures to move across the diamond and play first base. This likely opens up a spot at third base for the hot-hitting Juan Uribe, while Edgar Renteria and Freddy Sanchez will play every day at shortstop and second base, respectively.

In exchange for Molina, the Rangers will send reliever Chris Ray to Texas. Once thought to be Baltimore’s closer of the future, Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007 and hasn’t been the same since.

After saving 33 games in 2006 and posting a 9.28 K/9 before his surgery in 2007, the now 28-year-old owns matching strikeout and walk rates of 4.55 in 31 2/3 innings this season.

Ray’s average fastball velocity is back up into the mid-90’s, but his heater/slider combo hasn’t been as effective as it once was. His 3.41 ERA has been aided by a .214 BABIP, and his 5.88 xFIP suggests cloudy skies ahead.

While AT&T Park may help Ray’s cause, he’s going to have a hard time finding meaningful innings in a Giants bullpen which has been pretty good this year. Ray should only be owned in deep keeper/dynasty leagues that count holds.

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Why a Low BABIP Doesn’t Necessarily Signal a Good Buy-Low Candidate

Nick — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 21:16:17 +0000

The term Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) has become one of the most popular stats among fantasy managers in recent years. To put it simply, BABIP measures the number of batted balls that fall safely for a hit (excluding home runs).

According to The Hardball Times Glossary, the exact formula for BABIP is: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF).

The major league average for BABIP is usually around .300. Last year it was .299. Through nearly three months this season, its .298.

Generally, if a player’s BABIP is well-below the major league average, we can conclude he has experienced some amount of bad luck. Sometimes the player is making good contact, but his batted balls simply aren’t finding holes in the defense. However, that’s not always the case.

Here are the 10 lowest BABIPs (among qualified batters) through games played on Sunday, June 27:

PLAYER	BABIP	AVG
Aaron Hill	.183	.192
Jose Bautista	.220	.230
Carlos Pena	.221	.201
Carlos Quentin	.225	.229
Pedro Feliz	.227	.216
Carlos Lee	.231	.234
Mark Teixeira	.241	.229
Adam Lind	.241	.203
Gordon Beckham	.245	.204
A.J. Pierzynski	.248	.242

Aaron Hill might be viewed as a buy-low candidate because of his major league low .183 BABIP (career .296). The more revealing stats, however, are his drastically high fly ball rate (52.0 percent) and MLB-low line drive rate of 8.4 percent. His BABIP is a direct result of these unlikely numbers.

So what can we take from this? It’s simple to understand, really.

Hill is hitting more fly balls in an effort to match his lofty home run total from last season. Because his HR/FB rate is just 10.5 percent, it’s fair to assume most of the remaining 89.5 percent of his fly balls are being caught for outs. If Hill can level out his swing and raise his line drive rate closer to his career mark of 19.1 percent, his average will begin to rise as well.

Jose Bautista is tied for the major league lead with 20 homers, but his BABIP is a paltry .220. Is anyone buying low on the 29-year-old because of this? Absolutely not.

Bautista’s problem is the same as teammate Aaron Hill; his fly ball percentage is 55.3, the second highest total in baseball. Because the formula for BABIP excludes home runs, a player who has high fly ball rates and home run totals is unlikely to post a respectable batting average.

Carlos Pena’s fly ball rate is actually down from recent years, but so too is his line drive rate (12.1 percent this year, 18.0 percent career). When Pena hit .282 in 2007, his line drive rate (18.0 percent) aided his BABIP (.297) and was the guiding factor.

Other players on the list such as Carlos Lee, Mark Teixeira and Adam Lind all have line drive rates over 17.0 percent. Therefore, they are more likely to post higher averages in the near future (and thus, are better buy-low candidates) than the players mentioned above.

When evaluating a hitter, it’s important to look beyond BABIP. If his low BABIP is accompanied by a high LD rate - such as the case with Justin Smoak (.255 BABIP, 23.5 LD rate) – he’s a prime buy-low option.

The combination of a low BABIP and low LD rate – such as the case with the aforementioned Hill and Bautista – is one you probably want to avoid.

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Closer’s Corner, June 21: Brian Fuentes, Huston Street, Alfredo Simon & More

Nick — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 00:45:24 +0000

If you read this article posted back in March, you know why it’s important to keep an eye on your league’s waiver wire as save opportunities get shuffled around major league bullpens.

• Just last week, Diamondbacks’ closer Chad Qualls (who saved 24 games in 2009) was relieved of his duties after converting just 12 of his 16 save opportunities with an 8.46 ERA in 22 1/3 innings thus far.

Teammate Aaron Heilman earned the four-out save Saturday night against Detroit, but not before allowing two hits and a run to score. The 31-year-old, who has 11 saves in his eight-year career, has allowed a run in three of his last five appearances.

While Heilman is now the favorite to close games in the desert, he’ll be on a short leash. All closers have value, but this one comes with an elevated risk.

• Angels’ closer Brian Fuentes allowed three runs on four hits and a walk in a non-save situation Saturday against the Cubs. Through 17 1/3 innings this season, Fuentes has allowed five homers and owns an embarrassing 6.23 ERA.

Despite this, Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia issued a vote of confidence to the struggling closer. From the Orange County Register:

“I don’t think you’re going to look at a reliever’s ERA and grade him out on how he’s doing – especially in a short relief role like Brian’s,” Scioscia said. “A couple bad outings and it’s going to take a long time to get that ERA back where it needs to be.”

Fernando Rodney is the guy to own should Scioscia change his mind, as he converted all five of his save opportunities in place of the injured Fuentes earlier this season. Rodney’s peripherals, however, suggest he’s been the receiver of some good luck.

Fantasy managers should keep a close eye on this situation, but Fuentes remains the best long-term option for saves.

• As of Friday night, Manuel Corpas owned a sparkling 2.37 ERA and had converted nine of 11 save opportunities for Colorado this season. After allowing eight runs in two appearances this weekend against Milwaukee, however, his ERA has ballooned to 4.19. Despite this, Rockies’ manager Jim Tracy said he wouldn’t rush Huston Street back into the closer’s role upon his expected return from the DL on Tuesday.

Still, it’s expected that Corpas will relinquish the ninth-inning duties after Street turns in a few good outings. Street, who turns 27 in August, has recorded 129 saves and a 2.91 ERA since his major league debut in 2005, and is the guy to own looking forward.

• Orioles’ reliever David Hernandez converted on his first two save opportunities in Alfredo Simon’s absence, but failed to record his third after allowing two runs on four hits and a walk with a 2-1 lead Friday night against the Padres.

Simon (who is 7-for-8 in save opportunities this year) closed Saturday night and appears to be the favorite in Baltimore from here on out. While Simon (just like Heilman) has value, he comes with a great deal of risk.

First of all, he pitches for baseball’s worst team and therefore won’t be provided with many save opportunities. Second, his 13/9 K/BB ratio in 15 innings thus far suggests his 3.60 ERA isn’t exactly legit. While Simon does feature a mid-90’s fastball/mid-80’s splitter combo which has produced a ground ball rate of 61.7 percent, he doesn’t have the typical swing-and-miss stuff you’d expect from a closer. The 29-year-old is the guy to own, but his long-term value is quite cloudy.

Here’s the updated Closer’s Corner as of Monday. The second column lists the current closer, while the third column features a backup option worth owning.

TEAM	CLOSER	NEXT
Baltimore	N. Feliz	D. Hernandez
Boston	J. Papelbon	D. Bard
New York (AL)	M. Rivera
Tampa Bay	R. Soriano
Toronto	K. Gregg
Chicago (AL)	B. Jenks	J.Putz/M. Thornton
Cleveland	K. Wood	C. Perez
Detroit	J. Valverde
Kansas City	J. Soria
Minnesota	J. Rauch
Los Angeles	B. Fuentes	F. Rodney
Oakland	A. Bailey
Seattle	D. Aardsma	B. League
Texas	N. Feliz
Atlanta	B. Wagner
Florida	L. Nunez
New York (NL)	F. Rodriguez
Philadelphia	B. Lidge	J. Contreras
Washington	M. Capps
Chicago (NL)	C. Marmol
Cincinnati	F. Cordero
Houston	M. Lindstrom	B. Lyon
Milwaukee	J. Axford	T. Hoffman
Pittsburgh	O. Dotel	E. Meek
St. Louis	R. Franklin
Arizona	A. Heilman	C. Qualls
Colorado	M. Corpas	H. Street
Dodgers	J. Broxton
Padres	H. Bell
Giants	B. Wilson

Be sure to check back next Monday for another Closer’s Corner update!

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2010 MLB Draft: When Will Nationals’ Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?

Nick — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 16:41:08 +0000

The first round of Major League Baseball’s 2010 first-year player draft featured many unexpected surprises, including the position at which Bryce Harper was drafted.

As expected, the Washington Nationals made the 17-year-old Junior College standout the No. 1 overall pick last Monday night. Unexpectedly, they selected the switch hitter as an outfielder instead of a catcher, the position at which Harper has played the most.

Ultimately, the Nationals decided Harper’s 80 raw power, excellent bat speed and strong arm would play best in right field. Keeping him at catcher would be extremely risky and delay his major-league debut by at least three years.

Though this decision potentially hurts his long-term value to fantasy teams, it opens the door for a possible big-league debut in September 2011.

While his first taste of the majors is more likely to come in 2012, the Vegas native won’t become fantasy-relevant at least until the 2013 season at the tender age of 20.

Although Harper’s astounding talent is hard to ignore, (23 homers, .417/.509/.917 triple-slash in 180 regular-season at-bats in 2010) he’s got a long journey ahead of him.

Still, keeper and dynasty league managers will fight for his rights in drafts next season, as Harper has the ability to join the likes of Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones, Miguel Cabrera and Jason Heyward as a fantasy-relevant 20-year-old with Hall-of-Fame upside.

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Buy Or Sell: Troy Glaus

Nick — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 16:57:30 +0000

After nine weeks of play, Braves’ first basemen Troy Glaus is tied with Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria for fifth on the major’s RBI leader board with 44.

Given his age and supposed injury propensity, most fantasy managers are looking to turn a profit on Glaus’ hot start. Instead, they should be seeking his services, as the former UCLA Bruin’s torrid start is no fluke.

Prior to appearing in just 14 games last season due to shoulder surgery, Glaus averaged 502 at-bats in the previous four seasons (‘05-’08). Now that he’s played in all of Atlanta’s 57 games this season, it’s safe to say those injury concerns are behind him.

Playing the majority of the 2010 season at age 33, Glaus is two years younger than Vladimir Guerrero, three years younger than Ichiro Suzuki and Bobby Abreu, and 14 years the junior of the Ageless Wonder.

Playing for a new contract this off season, Glaus clearly has a lot left in the tank.

Glaus’s impressive line of 30 runs, 11 homers, 44 RBI and a .274 batting average thus far has been a pleasant surprise, but a quick glimpse of his FanGraphs page suggests this type of production is to be expected.

His 2010 walk and strikeout rates are nearly identical to his career marks, as are his current line drive, ground ball, fly ball and homer-to-fly ball rates. Because of this, there’s little reason to suggest Glaus won’t be an asset for the remaining four months of the fantasy baseball season.

While it may be unreasonable to expect another 28-RBI month such as the one he posted in May, Glaus is likely to approach 25 homers and 95 RBI for the seventh time in his 13-year career.

Current pace:

560 at-bats, 85 runs, 31 HR, 125 RBI, .274 batting average

FBI Forecast (season total):

502 at-bats, 76 runs, 28 HR, 112 RBI, .268 batting average

FBI Forecast (rest of season):

305 at-bats, 46 runs, 17 HR, 68 RBI, .265 batting average

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders: Buy Or Sell? Pitchers Edition

Nick — Mon, 24 May 2010 16:29:11 +0000

: Image by John McNab via Flickr

Nearly seven weeks have passed since the 2010 fantasy baseball season began, and now is the time to start making crucial decisions about your team.

With young guns such as David Price and Francisco Liriano living up to recent hype, it’s not always easy to tell which of these hurlers has enough staying power, and which one should be dealt at peak value.

Thankfully, the Insider is here to decipher these tough questions in the pitcher’s edition of Buy or Sell?

BUY

• Ricky Romero – The sixth overall pick in the 2005 draft, Romero has become fantasy-relevant in 2010 after an average rookie campaign in ‘09. Through eight starts this season, the 25-year-old southpaw has a 2.88 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His 9.43 K/9 is supported by two 12-strikeout games, one of them in his most recent start against the Rangers.

So what’s changed since last year?

For starters, he’s throwing his fastball less and his plus-changeup more. After coaxing swings at pitches off the plate 24 percent of the time last season, hitters have expanded their zones against Romero 31.2 percent of the time this season (MLB average is 27.4 percent).

After Romero posted a league-average contact rate of 77.9 percent last year, batters are making contact on his pitches just 72.2 percent of the time in 2010, a number topped by only three other starters thus far.

Romero’s .291 BABIP and 76.0 percent strand rate are within reasonable league averages, and his 3.12 expected FIP (xFIP) suggests sunny skies ahead. Most fantasy managers are probably skeptical of Romero’s early-season success, but the data is clear: this kid is for real.

• Francisco Liriano – The 26-year-old’s 2.63 ERA through seven starts has fantasy managers asking: Has the ‘06 Liriano finally returned? Well, not quite. But he has made significant strides since his Tommy John surgery more than three years ago, and they’re finally paying off now.

Liriano’s average fastball velocity is back up, and his slider has regained its form as a plus-pitch. He’s coaxing swings a pitches off the plate at an above-average rate, and is pounding the zone with a 62.8 percent first-pitch strike rate (MLB average is 57.9 percent).

In addition to this, Liriano’s strand rate is slightly elevated, but his .335 BABIP actually suggests he’s experienced a touch of bad luck. There remains a slight risk involved with Liriano, but his 3.22 xFIP proves his start to the 2010 season is legit.

SELL

• David Price – Call me crazy, but I’m not buying into David Price’s 1.81 ERA. Don’t get me wrong, because I love the 24-year-old phenom as much as anyone. His current BABIP (.251), strand rate (80.1 percent), and xFIP (3.98), however, all suggest a regression in the near future.

In addition to this, five of his eight starts thus far have come against the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Athletics and Indians.

Price’s value in keeper and dynasty formats is sky-high, and deservedly so, but look at it this way: Price is currently on pace for 218 innings in 2010 (after working 162 2/3 innings last year). If he finishes the season with a more realistic, yet respectable 3.50 ERA, his earned run average from here on out would be a Joe Blanton-like 4.08.

• Barry Zito – The Giants’ southpaw returned to respectability last year, posting a 4.03 ERA in 192 innings. Through eight starts this season, however, Zito has pitched like it’s 2002, posting a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Like Price, however, Zito’s xFIP (4.45) signals cloudy skies ahead. His .242 BABIP and slightly elevated strand rate support this theory. In addition to this, Zito’s K/9 has been well below-average. Furthermore, his competition thus far has been quite weak, as five of Zito’s eight starts have come against N.L. teams in the bottom six in runs scored.

If there’s any good news, it’s that Zito seems to have his hammer curveball back. His mid-80’s fastball and average changeup, however, aren’t what they used to be. Now’s the time to swap the recently-turned 32-year-old for a tidy profit, and don’t look back.

• Doug Fister – The Mariners’ towering righty has seemingly come out of nowhere this season, posting a ridiculous 1.72 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 47 innings. Fister hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start, and has lasted at least seven innings in five of his seven starts.

A quick look over his FanGraphs page, however, suggests Fister is nowhere near this good. The 26-year-old’s .232 BABIP is the fifth lowest among starters with at least 40 innings pitched, and his 82.6 strand rate is the twelfth highest among pitchers who meet the same criteria. In addition to this, Fister’s 3.16 FIP suggests the Seattle defense has greatly aided his performance.

Here’s the kicker: Fister’s 4.25 xFIP is 2.53 runs higher than his ERA, a sign that he and his lowly 3.83 K/9 are due for a massive regression.

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Inbox: Week 7 Spot-Starters: Mike Leake, Ben Sheets, Derek Holland or Jhoulys Chacin?

Nick — Mon, 17 May 2010 16:42:01 +0000

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Continuing our mailbox segment properly titled Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Inbox, our Insider will answer a question posed by one of our loyal readers.

If you have a pressing question for the Insider, whether it be a trade proposal or a spot-start question, drop him a line: nick@fantasybaseballinsiders.com.

This week’s question: Looking ahead to week seven, who is the best option among the following starting pitchers? Mike Leake, (who I currently own) Ben Sheets, Derek Holland or Jhoulys Chacin?

- Mark (Chicago, IL)

Thanks for writing the Insider, Mark.

Of the four pitchers you mentioned, Mike Leake has been the best thus far. In six starts this season, he’s posted five quality starts and owns a sparkling 3.10 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

If we’re speaking solely on his week seven value, however, his one start at Atlanta (5/20) disqualifies him from the discussion.

In weekly leagues, Sheets, Holland and Chacin owners have the benefit of two starts each.

Derek Holland pitched exceptionally well in his season debut against Oakland on Wednesday, tossing six shutout innings while striking out seven. He will face the Angels (5/17) and Cubs (5/22) next week, both in Arlington.

Angels’ regulars hit .300 (18-60) against Holland last season. The Cubs have yet to see the 23-year-old, but are hitting .279 (82-for-294) against southpaws in 2010. For these reasons, Holland probably isn’t your best bet.

Jhoulys Chacin opened the season with a 15 1/3 scoreless inning streak, but was rocked for six runs in five innings Thursday night against the Nationals.

The 22-year-old Chacin will pitch against the Cubs (5/18) and Royals(5/23) next week, both on the road. Young pitchers without much major-league experience are generally very inconsistent, making them poor spot-start options. Because we have limited history to judge Chacin’s worth, he’s probably not the best choice in week seven.

Ben Sheets‘ 5.70 ERA through eight starts thus far is somewhat deceiving, as most of the damage against him has come in two starts at Toronto and Tampa Bay. In his six remaining outings, Sheets has posted five quality starts.

The 31-year-old will match up against the Mariners (5/18) and Giants (5/23) in week seven, both starts being in Oakland, where Sheets is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season.

Seattle regulars are 10-for-49 (.204) in their career against Sheets, though four of those hits have come off the bat of Ken Griffey Jr. Only five regulars on the Giants’ roster have seen Sheets, collecting a combined .260 (6-for-23) lifetime average.

All signs point to Ben Sheets as the best spot-start option in week seven. As tough as it may be to dump Leake (just for next week), it’s the right move. Scoop up Sheets and enjoy his two-start week!

Do you have a question for the Insider? Shoot him an e-mail: nick@fantasybaseballinsiders.com

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What’s Wrong With Josh Beckett?

Nick — Mon, 10 May 2010 11:00:03 +0000

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett got rocked—again—Friday night, allowing nine earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Yankees, marking the third time he’s given up seven earned runs or more in a start this season.

Through seven starts (41 innings) in 2010, Beckett is 1-1 with a despicable 7.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Two of his three quality starts have come against Kansas City and Baltimore, both of which are in the bottom four in runs scored among A.L. teams. Beckett’s beat downs have come against the Rangers, Blue Jays and Yankees (twice), which on the surface might explain some of his troubles. Still, the former World Series MVP shouldn’t be this bad.

So what should Beckett owners do?

This Insider says hold him—for now. Here’s why:

Beckett’s unusually high .365 BABIP explains his .311 BAA and sky-high WHIP. His current strand rate (56.9 percent) is a ridiculously low number, one that is sure to approach Beckett’s career mark of 71.5 percent by season’s end.

His 4.47 FIP is three full runs lower than his current ERA, which also points to tough luck.

The factors Beckett can control, however, aren’t necessarily encouraging. His strikeout rate (7.46) is down from his career mark of 8.51. Likewise, his usually stellar walk rate (2.76 career) currently sits at 3.51.

Beckett’s average fastball velocity is down to 93.5 MPH this year from 94.7, 94.6, 94.3 and 94.1 MPH in season’s past. This gradual decline isn’t as concerning. In fact, it’s to be expected.

What’s most discouraging is Beckett’s curveball use (or lack there of) so far this season.

Since joining the Red Sox in 2006, Beckett’s yacker has accounted for nearly one-fourth of the pitches he’s thrown. In 2010, however, he’s tossing his curveball just 18.7 percent of the time.

This is worth keeping an eye on.

Beckett’s struggles thus far have relegated him to spot-start status in fantasy leagues, as he can’t be trusted with starts against the Blue Jays, Yankees and Phillies on the horizon.

Despite this, keep in mind fantasy baseball is all about value. Dumping a pitcher of Beckett’s caliber at this point would not be wise. In fact, Beckett, who owns a career 2.96 ERA during the month of September (a.k.a the fantasy playoffs) is a decent buy-low option for the audacious fantasy manager.

Beckett, who turns 30 on Saturday, should become more valuable as his luck begins to even out, though his upcoming matchups will make this an especially tough task. If you can afford to stash him away until he turns the corner, do so. Just don’t rely on him anytime soon.

FBI Forecast: 190 IP, 13 W, 170 K (8.05 K/9) 4.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

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