Stephen Strasburg Photo by Icon SMI

Throughout the course of the year, there are several different dates/events that receive plenty of hype and that fans look forward to.  Opening Day, Week 1, the All-Star Break, the Trade Deadline and Free Agency are just a handful.  Another event that generates plenty of hype and optimism is the Amateur Draft.  Each sport has one with varying levels of media coverage.  The NFL and  NBA drafts, rightfully so, generate the most fanfare because the impact of rookies can be immediate in some cases.  Guys like Brandon Jennings, Matt Forte, Chris Paul and Percy Harvin are guys who played a large role in the performance of their teams on the field/court as rookies and also contributed mightily to the success of countless fantasy managers.  MLB is obviously a little bit different.  Very rarely do draftees make the jump from college or high school to the highest level of pro ball.  Mike Leake is certainly a humongous exception.  Fans have to be more patient with their MLB teams’ draft picks than they do with those of their NFL and NBA teams, but that has not stopped MLB from trying to turn their draft into a larger and more media friendly event.

Lately, though, it seems as though the required amount of patience required from MLB fans awaiting their top prospects has been shorter.  Tighter wallets/fatter bonuses (ironic, huh?) and higher expectations have combined to create the urgency and temptation to push top talent more aggressively through the Minors to the Bigs.  Bigger talent and better developmental systems allows these prospects to answer the call.  Not only are young guys making tangible contributions to their real teams’ win-loss records, but they are also making sizable impacts on fantasy leagues – keeper leagues in particular.  Here are a few guys from recent drafts who serve as evidence of the decreasing gap between Draft Day and Opening Day.

2009 Draft

Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, Debut: June 8, 2010) – He should have done the “Mike Leake” before Leake did it.  He’s already lived up to the hype early on striking out 22 in 12.1 innings.

Mike Leake (8th overall, Debut: April 11, 2010) – Not as explosive as “The Stras”, but he has a 2.68 ERA in 77.1 IP without any Minor League experience – impressive!

Drew Storen (10th overall, Debut: May 17, 2010) – Future closer is already helping to bolster the Nats’ bullpen.

2008 Draft

Brian Matusz (4th overall, Debut: August 4, 2009) – The numbers aren’t pretty, but considering that he’s a rookie pitching in the AL (b) East, he deserves some credit for standing up to the competition even if his ERA is 4.92.

Buster Posey (5th overall, Debut: May 29, 2010) – He’s currently batting .344 and I’ve seen him described as “the right-handed Joe Mauer“.  What else needs to be said?

Gordon Beckham (8th overall, Debut: June 4, 2009) – Struggling mightily in 2010, but had a great rookie year, batting .270 and belting 14 homers.

Justin Smoak (11th overall, Debut: April 23, 2010) – Struggling in his first go-around, but has shown solid command of the strike zone with a 27/40 BB/K ratio.

Ike Davis (18th overall, Debut: April 19, 2010) – Mets are .5 game out of first place and Davis is a big reason why.

2007 Draft

David Price (1st overall, Debut: September 14, 2008) – 10 wins so far in 2010!

Matt Wieters (5th overall, Debut: May 29, 2009) – Not living up to the hype so far, but he is another guy who was compared to Mauer coming up.  “Mauer with power” – what’s not to like about that?

Jason Heyward* (14th overall, Debut: April 5, 2010) – The J-Hey Kid has an .875 OPS as a 20-year old.

Rick Porcello* (27th overall, Debut: April 9, 2009) – Ugly numbers in 2010, but pitched 170.2 innings of 3.96 ball as a 20-year old rookie in 2009.

Mike Stanton* (76th overall, Debut: June 8, 2010) – Trying to carry his juggernaut Double-A production into the Marlins lineup.

2006 Draft

Photo by Icon SMI

Evan Longoria (3rd overall, Debut: April 12, 2008) – Reached full-blown stud status in 2009.

Clayton Kershaw* (7th overall, Debut: May 25, 2008) – The walks come in bunches, but he’s got a career 9.47 K/9 and .211 BAA.

Tim Lincecum (10th overall, Debut: May 6, 2007) – Two full seasons, two Strikeout Crowns (if such a thing really exists), two Cy Young Awards.

*Drafted out of high school

It is evident from the list above that most of the players making quick impacts on the Major League level are those that are drafted out of college.  Even so, the time between draft and debut is shrinking.  Not only that, but we are starting to see more high school talent making quicker rises through the Minors as well.  This means that many of the players from the 2010 draft (the guys not named Bryce Harper) will become familiar names before long.  We’ll watch several of them in the 2011 Future’s Game and then by 2012 we will start seeing some of them in MLB unis.  The ascension of top draft picks is not as quick as it is in the NFL or NBA, but the wait isn’t as long as it used to be.

Fantasy Ruckus

Catcher – Mike Napoli; I recently suggested that fantasy managers keep an eye on Ryan Doumit for the simple fact that he was going to be spending some time at 1B on the days he wasn’t catching.  Well, Mike Napoli already has 1B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, and with Kendry Morales gone for the season, he will finally get the 450+ ABs that fantasy owners have been hoping for.  His numbers are not too impressive right now so the price in a trade could be cheap.

First Base – Mark Teixeira, Justin Smoak; The current and “future” Teixeira have both struggled.  Smoak is a rook, so his struggles are expected.  Not so much for Teixeira.  Let’s take a deeper look into each player though.  Smoak has struck out once every four at-bats which is a bit high, but not exorbitant for a rookie.  He has been hitting line drives at a 25% clip though which one would think is enough to overcome a semi-high strikeout total and push a batting average into the .250 range – at least.  However, it seems the balls he puts into play – even those of the line drive variety – are finding gloves as his BABIP has dropped anchor at .237.  The story is quite similar for Teixiera which is fitting considering the similarities between the two players.  If you look at Teixeira’s numbers you will notice that the K & BB rates and batted ball types are very similar to what he’s done over the course of his career.  The BABIP, however, sits at .247 for the season which is substantially lower than his career mark of .305.  Buy low on Teixeira if you can and add Smoak in keeper leagues if he’s still available.  Each one should see his numbers increase from this point forward.

Second Base – Ian Kinsler; While his overall numbers aren’t exactly bad, they are not worthy of his pre-injury Top-20 draft position.  His power has been non-existent and his speed has not been on display on the base paths.  Now, we expected the drop in SB, but the drop in power is not going to fly.  He’s hitting ground balls and fly balls at a 1-1 clip and the fly balls he does hit are not being driven evidenced by his lone HR and 2% HR/FB rate.  Normally I like to roll the dice on under-performing studs, but I would have to say leave Kinsler alone for 2010 and hop on him at a discount in 2011.  Ankle injuries – especially high ankle sprains – are notoriously slow to heal and Kinsler even said that he was prepared to deal with pain for the rest of the year.  That is not an encouraging thing to hear from a player who’s argument as a Top-20 fantasy producer was already a bit sketchy heading into the season.

Third Base – Pedro Alvarez; It’s time for the Alvarez Era to being in Pittsburgh.  Word is he’ll immediately be thrust into the middle of the Pirates order.  After a slow start at Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez ended up with a .277/.363/.533 slash line with 13 HR and 53 RBI.  Slowly but surely Pittsburgh is putting together a lineup that will be more exciting if not more dangerous.

Short Stop – Hanley Ramirez; Han-Ram has had a solid season, but has it been worthy of the No. 1 or 2 overall selection in fantasy drafts?  The general consensus would have to be ‘no’.  A .290/.374/.492 line with 10 HR and 35 RBI from your short stop is nothing to complain about at all.  The only thing is, you probably passed up several guys producing at a higher level right now which is tough to swallow.  How do things look for the star short stop going forward?  First of all, he’s making a lot of contact and mostly swinging at strikes.  That tells us that he is not swinging at too many bad pitches.  Now that we’ve established that he’s not whiffing too often we can check out his batted ball numbers which are a bit out of whack.  His line drives and fly balls are down as he has hit a lot more balls on the ground so far this season.  His HR/FB rate is a robust 15.9% but only 30.4% of his contact has resulted in fly balls compared to 41.5% in 2009.  His BABIP stands out as well.  While his .299 mark this season is right in line with the league average, it pales in comparison to his .346 career mark.  To me, it just appears that Ramirez needs to get his timing and rhythm going.  I have a hard time blaming his “struggles” on his benching and the accompanying distractions nor is there an injury hampering him that we know of.  This looks like one of those instances where fantasy managers just need to stand pat and ride out the wave.  Maybe if you’re lucky someone in your league will panic and unload him at a discount.

Outfield – Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff; Who are these guys?  Well, we know Aubrey Huff, but we just haven’t seen him like this in a couple of years.  While he has been inconsistent from year to year, Huff has shown the ability to produce power and patience with a solid overall line.  Therefore, it is fair to invest in the Giant with confidence.  It is likely that he is still available in free agency and even more likely that he’ll provide a short term boost – at the very least.  I have a little less confidence in Torres, but he has been very solid all year and if you are struggling offensively, it couldn’t hurt to consider riding the hot hand.  Torres has not produce much power, but he has done some work on the bases with 11 swipes and he has shown solid strike zone command with a 30/38 BB/K.  These names are far from exciting or intimidating, but that won’t matter if they help you in the standings.

Pitching – Edward Mujica, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson; How about the Padres ‘pen?  Think they have something to do with the team’s first place standing in the NL West?  Of course they also have Heath Bell closing games out, but that is where things get interesting.  Bell has long been rumored as a trade chip for the Padres and with the emergence of the three guys before him, the decision to move him could become easier.  As a group, the aforementioned trio has combined to post a 2.40 ERA, .77 WHIP and 109/16 K/BB ratio in 97.2 IP.  Just in case you read that wrong….that is 109 strikeouts and 16 walks.  The question at this point becomes which guy receives the first crack at closing duties?  That is a question that I can not provide a good answer to.  My advice: own all three of them.

Related posts:

1. Pre 2010 Fantasy Baseball Predictions at the Mid-Way Point
2. Early 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Plays
3. Passing the Fantasy Baseball Torch

As expected, the Washington Nationals made the 17-year-old Junior College standout the No. 1 overall pick last Monday night. Unexpectedly, they selected the switch hitter as an outfielder instead of a catcher, the position at which Harper has played the most.

Ultimately, the Nationals decided Harper’s 80 raw power, excellent bat speed and strong arm would play best in right field. Keeping him at catcher would be extremely risky and delay his major-league debut by at least three years. 

Though this decision potentially hurts his long-term value to fantasy teams, it opens the door for a possible big-league debut in September 2011.

While his first taste of the majors is more likely to come in 2012, the Vegas native won’t become fantasy-relevant at least until the 2013 season at the tender age of 20.

Although Harper’s astounding talent is hard to ignore, (23 homers, .417/.509/.917 triple-slash in 180 regular-season at-bats in 2010) he’s got a long journey ahead of him.

Still, keeper and dynasty league managers will fight for his rights in drafts next season, as Harper has the ability to join the likes of Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones, Miguel Cabrera and Jason Heyward as a fantasy-relevant 20-year-old with Hall-of-Fame upside.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• Why Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg Is Already a Top-10 Fantasy Pitcher (VIDEO)
• 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?
• Mike Stanton’s 2010 Fantasy Value
• Does Rangers’ Justin Smoak Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• What’s Wrong With Aramis Ramirez?
• Buy or Sell: Troy Glaus
• Buy or Sell: Pitcher’s Edition
• What’s Wrong With Josh Beckett?
• Padres’ Kyle Blanks, Reds’ Drew Stubbs Headline 2010 All-Breakout Team

More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:

• Mat Latos
• Cole Hamels
• Livan Hernandez
• Mike Pelfrey
• Delmon Young
• Drew Stubbs
• Nolan Reimold
• Jay Bruce
• Geovany Soto
• B.J. Upton
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Matt Wieters

Related posts:

1. Seattle Mariners Trade Cliff Lee to Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak: Fantasy Impact
2. San Francisco Giants Trade Catcher Bengie Molina to Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
3. Fantasy Baseball Insiders Buy Or Sell: Troy Glaus

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Last week we saw the retirement of one of the truly elite talents in baseball history and one of the most dominant players that played in my (and every other ~23 year old’s) generation.  Ken Griffey Jr. was my first favorite baseball player, the first guy that I would wait to watch on Sports Center and the first (and only) guy that I went out of my way to collect baseball cards for.  As a matter of fact, I still have a box of his cards in my closet.  This got me to thinking about some of the greats that have recently retired (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz – unofficially, Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Bonds – still great despite his steroid cloud, Mussina, etc.) and some of the guys who are close to calling it quits.  It is just a funny feeling for me seeing guys like these wind down their careers and fade away into the game’s background.  These are guys who I admired and sought on my fantasy squads not all that long ago, yet here they are, today, with rapidly waning fantasy relevance – if not non-existent.  Here’s the All-”My Generation” Team.  Guys who as recently as 2004 had fantasy significance, but are now at the point in their careers where they need to step aside for the new wave of talent.

C – Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez
1999 – .332/.356/.558, 35 HR, 113 RBI (AL MVP)

Is it at all possible that Pudge’s offensive achievements fly under the radar?  Not likely I hope, but that is just how good his defense was/is.  Defensive ability is not normally a factor that comes into play when talking fantasy baseball, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the guy has 13 Gold Gloves.  Obviously, there was plenty to like about his bat as well.  He had his share of injuries that took out a decent chunk of his prime years, but he still played 140+ games five times which is impressive considering he was playing those games in Texas and Florida.  The buzz these days has him making the transition into the managerial ranks.

Passing the Torch: Joe Mauer, Matt Weiters, Buster Posey (if he remains at C), Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero

1B – Todd Helton
2000 – .372/.463/.698, 42 HR, 147 RBI

It is hard to believe that Helton did not take home some MVP hardware with a season like that.  In fact, he didn’t finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  Regardless, his 2000 season was a representation (a very loud one) of the type of player he was for much of his career.  Coors Field, pre-Humidor, certainly inflated those numbers a bit, but that is something that fantasy ballers should have taken into consideration on draft day.  Coors effect or not, Helton was a dream to have on your squad.  He had HR power, was a doubles machine, drew more walks than strikeouts in his career and had 10 seasons batting .320 or better.

Passing the Torch: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Justin Smoak

2B – Luis Castillo
2000 – .334/.418/.388, 62 SB

Castillo will not send fantasy managers into a nostalgic frenzy, but he is a guy who played an important role as a SB specialist for several years.  Power was absent from his game, but his ability on the base paths was a valuable asset to many fantasy owners who missed out on the power options in the middle infield.  In addition to the 369 swipes he has accumulated in his career, he has also batted .291 and on-based at a .368 clip.

Passing the Torch: Gordon Beckham, Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado, Chris Getz (future SB specialist?)

3B – Chipper Jones
1999 – .319/.441/.633, 45 HR, 110 (NL MVP)

Oh yeah, Jones tossed in 25 stolen bases during his MVP campaign as well.  Unfortunately, Jones has really struggled with injuries since 2004, but that should not keep him out of the Hall.  Jones, like Helton (and a lot of the guys that will end up on this list), was everything you can ask for as an anchor for a fantasy lineup.  Again, the injuries may keep him from reaching the 500 HR plateau, but that does not take away from the superior power/patience/batting average package that Jones provided.

Passing the Torch: David Wright, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman

SS – Miguel Tejada
2004 – .311/.360/.534, 34 HR, 150 RBI

Another doubles machine, Tejada ushered in the 2nd wave of offensive minded shortstops that followed Jeter, A-Rod and Nomar.  One of the most impressive stats of Tejada’s career that is sure to fall a bit under the radar is his six straight seasons (2001-2006) of playing 162 games.  Of course, fans in Baltimore were not impressed by that streak, but you can’t win in fantasy baseball when your studs don’t play.

Passing the Torch: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar

OF – Manny Ramirez

2000 – .351/.457/.697, 38 HR, 122 RBI

Nice season, huh?  He only played 118 games.
OF – Vladimir Guerrero
2002 – .336/.417/.593, 39 HR, 111 RBI, 40 SB

What needs to be said about a season like this?  It is not very often you come across guys who can provide power and speed in surplus while walking (84) more than he strikes out (70).

OF – Bobby Abreu
2004 – .301/.428/.544, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 40 SB

Abreu produced several seasons similar to 2004, but was always a guy who was slept on.  He has been a very solid player throughout his career, but has not received the same type of star treatment that others in his class received.

Manny and Vlad have been two of the most feared sluggers in baseball over the past decade and a half.  The two are only portions of themselves today, but every now and then you can still see them turn back the clock and show off the type of talent that made them perennial first rounders in fantasy drafts.  Abreu is not quite in their class, but that is not to say that he was not a great contributor in his prime as well.  One of the most balanced players, he would provide speed, power, score runs, drive in runs and draw 100+ walks per season.  Each of these guys was a fantasy stud and simply having one of them to serve as a pillar of a lineup was a good start.  In 2004, I actually had all three in my outfield.  Imagine that.

Passing the Torch: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton

SP – Pedro Martinez

1999 – 23-4, 213.1 IP, 2.07 ERA, 313 K (Cy Young)

SP – Greg Maddux
1995 – 19-2, 209.2 IP, 1.63 ERA, 181 K (Cy Young)

1995 was only his fourth consecutive Cy Young.

I cheated a little bit considering Martinez is the only one who is still “active”, but its tough not to give it up for these guys.  Maddux was different from the other guys in that he utterly dominated with command, movement and craftiness.  Any “soft tosser” that can make fantasy managers excited deserves some props.  It would be nice if I could find something to say about the dominance achieved by Pedro and the “Big Unit”, but I think their career numbers speak for themselves.  They are simply staggering.  John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine and a handful of others that could make a case to be on this list as well.

Passing the Torch: Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg

RP – Trevor Hoffman
1998 – 53 S, 1.48 ERA, 86 K

Hoffman has been one of the best closers in the game for the past 15 years or so.  The most unbelievable thing about his career is that he has walked the road to immortality with one main weapon – a change-up.  He has struggled this season for the first time in my baseball watching days and he currently sits four saves away from 600.  Closers and saves are always a polarizing topic in fantasy circles, but there really was nothing to debate when it came to evaluating Hoffman’s value and contribution to fantasy staffs.

Passing the Torch: Joe Nathan, Jon Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Neftali Feliz, Daniel Bard

Stars have been coming and going for generations, but the guys I touched on above are interesting to me because I have had the privilege of watching these guys excel in their prime and now I watch them as they play in the twilight of their career.  This is the first time in my recollection that such a large wave of future Hall of Famers has hung up the cleats in a relatively close period of time.  As one generation of great talent writes the final chapters of their careers, the best is yet to come for much of the new wave of talent that has been infused into the league.

Story of the Week

Top prospects getting the call.  Stephen Strasburg and Michael Stanton made their highly anticipated debuts last night.  At this point, there is not really anything for me to say that has not been said by anyone and everyone from seam-heads to the casual fan and even those who do not even particularly like baseball.  Interestingly, the top three prospects according to Baseball America will reside in the NL East.  We have already seen Jason Heyward get off to a nice start with the Atlanta Braves.  The toughest thing about the promotions of Strasburg and Stanton will be for fans and fantasy managers to temper their early expectations.  More often than not, even the most highly touted prospects struggle early on in their careers.  Ensuing struggles or not, it is very exciting to have these two phenoms set to kick off what we can only hope are long and productive MLB careers.

Players to Watch

Ryan Doumit, C – Doumit has been taking grounders at 1B in anticipation of future PT there when he does not catch.  This does not necessarily mean that he will be any better of a hitter than he already is or that his tepid trade value will heat up.  HOWEVER, one important thing to consider will be having a catcher in your lineup every day.  After you get past the top two or three tiers of catchers, the next best thing is a solid bat that will get lots of ABs and provide value by volume.  Doumit is particularly intriguing because he is a guy who still has some potential that he could tap into.  Keep an eye on this situation.

Luke Hochevar, SP – I don’t expect Hochevar to contribute to the success of fantasy squads anytime really soon – maybe not even this year.  I do think he is a guy that people will want to stash in the back of their minds.  His electric arm was on display in his most recent start against Detroit in which he struck out 10 Tigers in seven innings.  I like his stuff a lot and I think he is a guy who can emerge as a very solid producer before too terribly long.

Andrew Cashner, Tanner Scheppers, RP – Neither one will factor into save opportunities in 2010, but electric bullpen arms are always a helpful commodity down the stretch in H2H leagues.  Cashner offers a little bonus in that he has SP eligibility.  Seeing that both are rookies (in Schepper’s case, he’s still a minor leaguer), there is a safe chance that fantasy managers don’t receive much in the way of consistency let alone dominance.  They are both still worth keeping tabs on though.

Related posts:

1. Pre 2010 Fantasy Baseball Predictions at the Mid-Way Point
2. Early 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Plays
3. Future Baseball Studs And A Fantasy Round Up

The following list of players are from Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects that have already joined the MLB club: ranked # 34 – Wade Davis SP with the Rays,  # 37 – Starlin Castro SS with the Cubs, # 49 – Austin Jackson OF with the Tigers, # 57 – Scott Sizemore 2B with the Tigers, # 58 – Josh Reddick OF was called up in April with the Red Sox due to injuries (to OF’s Mike Cameron & Jacoby Ellsbury) , # 59 – Mike Leake SP of the Reds, # 60 – Drew Storen SP with the Nationals, # 69 – Reid Brignac INF of the Rays, # 87 – Ike Davis 1B called up by the Mets. If I have missed anyone please let me know and I will add them to this list! Since the posting of #’s 11-20, 1B Justin Smoak (# 17) has been called up with the Rangers

The stats below around the slashes for batter are as follows BA/R/HR/RBI/BB/SO/SB/OBP/G while for pitchers it will be W-L/ERA/GS/CG/IP/BB/SO.

10. Aroldis Chapman LHP with the Reds

4-2/3.98/8/0/40.2/24/48

Not only is he a talented Cuban defector that happens to throw lefty, but he does so while throwing 100mph at times too. He needs to improve on his BB/SO ratio if he’s going to compete with Strasburg for rookie of the year in 2010. Unlike Strasburg, Chapman hasn’t been absolutely dominating AAA hitters, but he has been good. He’s also a mature 22 year old much like Strasburg and Mike Leake (also with the Reds). Barring injury, I don’t see why he won’t be in Cincinnati sometime in June, but they may let him cook at AAA until right around the trade deadline as someone (Arroyo or Harang) might get dealt.

9. Buster Posey C with the Giants

.343/29/6/30/26/30/1/.437/45

Currently tearing it up in AAA. If they don’t want to move the aging Molina after resigning him, then why not temporarily move Posey to either 1B or LF in a way to get his bat in the lineup at the big league level. He obviously no longer needs to prove anything at the AAA level.

8. Carlos Santana C with the Indians

.313/30/10/40/35/29/5/.447/44

Currently in AAA waiting for the right moment as he’s currently behind Lou Marson & Mark Redmond the major league depth chart. Given Redmond’s age and the fact that neither he nor Marson are hitting over .230, I don’t know why they wouldn’t call up Santana in June or July. That might mean DFA’ing Redmond unless they go with three catchers.

7. Desmond Jennings OF with the Rays

.256/13/0/6/10/13/11/.341/26

Currently in AAA and should stay there until his batting average climbs. He might be a bargaining chip in a deadline deal given the fact that the Rays are all set in the OF with Crawford, Upton and Zobrist. That is unless they are planning on letting Crawford walk in free agency especially seeing that Jennings might be a leadoff candidate in the future.

6. Pedro Alvarez 3B with the Pirates

.251/26/10/42/22/45/2/.342/46

Currently in AAA with a below average batting average, but nice power numbers (10/42 HR/RBI) and he strikes out too much right now. Plus he is currently blocked by LaRoche who is having a decent year so far.

5. Mike Stanton OF with the Marlins

.312/32/17/44/36/43/1/.444/42

Currently in AA, but rumors are swirling that he may make his debut the same week as another top 10 prospect is rumored. Stanton may not hit for the same high average, but he should show off his power stroke right from the start…just remember, he’s only 20! Once he’s up, he will probably stay up. The question remains as to who he will replace?

4. Jesus Montero C with the Yankees

.241/16/3/19/16/25/0/.318/39

Currently in AAA and isn’t hitting as well as he has in past years in the minors. If he were, he might have been called up when Posada or Nick Johnson hit the DL. Cervelli & Montero might be the future at catcher for the Yankees. As a reminder, he was the one MUST have player in last year’s Halladay bidding wars (and probably others as well).

3. Neftali Feliz RHP with the Rangers

He broke with the team out of spring training and has never looked back. He has been both the 8^th inning set up man and the closer, boasting triple digits on the radar gun.

2. Jason Heyward OF with the Braves

He also broke camp with the team and has been getting game winning or tying hits on a regular basis as the every day centerfielder. Let’s just hope it doesn’t all go to his head!

1. Stephen Strasburg RHP with the Nationals

In AA: 3-1/1.64/5/0/22.0/6/27

In AAA: 3-0/0.39/4/0/23.1/4/27

The only reason in my mind that he is not already in the majors is to avoid super two status, hence avoiding a huge additional payout. The word on the street (and the internet) says that he will pitch in his major league debut against the Pirates on June 8^th. When that day comes, Washington DC will be the mecca of baseball as he is expected to set the league on fire. There hasn’t been a starting pitcher with this kind of hype for as long as I can remember! It should be fun to watch how this unfolds…

Related posts:

1. Future Baseball Studs And A Fantasy Round Up
2. The 411 on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 20 Prospects: #’s 11-20
3. MLB STUDIES DRSEA SUGGESTION TO FINGERPRINT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BASEBALL PROSPECTS

Despite Smoak’s rough start, fantasy owners should take notice of the 23-year-old’s promotion.

At three different levels in 2009, Smoak hit .290/.410/.443 with 12 HRs and 57 RBI.

According to Baseball America, the 2008 first-round pick has “plus-plus power potential from both sides of the plate. He (also) has a mature, patient approach and the ability to use all fields.”

The Mark Teixeira comparisons are abundant, and for good reason. Smoak was widely considered to be one of the most advanced hitters of the 2008 draft class which featured Pedro Alvarez, Gordon Beckham and Brett Wallace.

As BA put it, Smoak – who was Matt Wieters’ teammate in high school - “projects as a middle-of-the-order power hitter and has the chance to be a superstar.”

Smoak’s promotion correlated with Chris Davis’ demotion, meaning Smoak should enjoy the bulk of the playing time for the Rangers at first base.

His power potential has yet to fully develop, which may limit his value somewhat in 2010. Given 450 at-bats in this, his rookie season, Smoak could approach 20 bombs in the hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark. He should be owned in most one-year leagues, and is a no-doubter in fantasy and dynasty leagues.

If I had to choose between Smoak and fellow recent call-up Ike Davis, Smoak would get the nod. (For more on Davis, click here.) Adjust your fantasy baseball cheat sheets accordingly.

FBI Forecast: 450 at-bats, 60 runs, 17 HRs, 75 RBI, .280 batting average

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates:

• 4/28: Who The Heck is Luis Atilano?
• 4/27: Who The Heck is Cliff Pennington?
• 4/26: Marlins’ Josh Johnson Three-Hits Padres, K’s 12 in Win
• 4/20: Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez Allows One Run, K’s 10 in Loss
• 4/19: Who the Heck is Doug Fister?

2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:

• Delmon Young
• Drew Stubbs
• Nolan Reimold
• Jay Bruce
• Geovany Soto
• B.J. Upton
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Matt Wieters

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Inbox:

• Trade Astros’ Carlos Lee for Blue Jays’ Vernon Wells?

More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Padres’ Kyle Blanks, Reds’ Drew Stubbs Headline 2010 All-Breakout Team

Related posts:

1. Seattle Mariners Trade Cliff Lee to Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak: Fantasy Impact
2. San Francisco Giants Trade Catcher Bengie Molina to Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
3. 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Nationals’ Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?

When I saw this contest and read the possible topics I thought it would be best to combine a few, show some versatility and have some fun with it while still providing my regular readers with some useful information. So here it goes…

When I asked myself why I would want to be a Lowell Spinners Scribe my initial reactions was an honest one, for the traffic and exposure it would provide my site. But that is selfish and is not my main goal for Baseball Reflections. Faithful followers of the site can attest to my desire to look for better ways to provide my readers with the best baseball blog I can muster visually, interactively and in content. My personal style is never too serious and I try to have a little fun while I’m at it. That’s what I like about minor league baseball and especially the Spinners. They are downright entertaining! It’s a fun family venue that engages the public and aims to provide them with the best possible product. As a husband and father I admire how they provide a family atmosphere in-between innings and it is also shows itself in how clean they keep the ballpark. Therefore, to have the privilege of having Baseball Reflections be associated, albeit for a brief time, with the Lowell Spinners would be something that fits into our mutual interests.

Now I admit that since the Spinners became affiliated with the hometown Red Sox, I have taken more of an interest in the team, but if it wasn’t for this link I wouldn’t have the ability to write about one of my favorite former Spinners at this point in the season given that he’s on the DL right now, former Spinners OF Jacoby “The Human Spark Plug” Ellsbury (former Spinners jersey # 24). Ellsbury only played one season in Lowell back in 2005, but while there he hit .317 with an OBP of .418 while stealing 23 bases in 26 attempts with 1 HR and 19 RBIs in 35 games scoring 28 runs. In the field he converted 61 out of 62 attempts for a .984 fielding % and a range factor per game (RF/G) of 2.26. What I like best about “The Human Spark Plug” is that he can affect the outcome of a game, throw off the other team’s concentration due to his awesome speed, base stealing and overall base running prowess. He can be a difference maker at the top of a line up that can be the cause of a pitcher making a bad pitch because he’s paying too much attention (and deservedly so) to Mr. Ellsbury. For example, if a pitcher makes the smallest of errors to Pedroia, Youkilis or anyone else in the Red Sox line up, the results can prove very costly and an early exit from the game. That is something we haven’t had on the Red Sox in a very long time (never in my viewing over the past 30+ years). This year I am eagerly awaiting to see if he can break the curse that seems to loom over all good defensive LF’ers and win a Gold Glove there in 2010 while Mike Cameron holds down the fort in center (once they both come off the DL).

For the rest of my online resume to become a Spinners Scribe, please check out my articles at my site, Baseball Reflections, especially my interviews (most interviews have been done by me with a few exceptions). Some of my interviews have included: Tommy John, Phillies RP Chad Durbin, female umpire Perry Lee Barber, etc.

If you are a Boston Sports Blogger, please consider going to the Boston Sports Blogapalooza at The Baseball Tavern on Sunday, May 2, 2010 from noon to 6pm. For more information or to RSVP, click HERE! I hope to see you there. If you go, please make sure to say hi!

Related posts:

1. A Red Sox April to Forget: 2010
2. 2010 Red Sox Charity Wines Launch Party
3. The Red Sox 5-9 Start is Nothing to Worry About

We will first go through players ranked by BP # 11-20, then next week we will look at players ranked 1-10. The stats below around the slashes for batter are as follows BA/R/HR/RBI/BB/SO/SB/OBP/G while for pitchers it will be W/L/ERA/GS/CG/IP/BB/SO.

20 – Michael Taylor OF with the Athletics is batting .246/9/1/8/6/12/3/.317/15 so far in AAA, but with the way Beane manages the team he will probably trade a player on the current A’s roster & make room for Taylor by default. On any other team, he’d need to ratchet up the numbers a bit in order to legitimize a call up before September when the rosters expand.

Photo by Icon SMI

19 – Alcides Escobar SS with the Brewers is currently the starting SS with the Brewers and it looks like he’s there to stay seeing they traded JJ Hardy in the off season.

18 – Brian Matusz LHP with the Orioles is currently in the starting rotation with the Orioles. He is one of the building blocks GM Andy MacPhail is counting on to get this proud franchise back to its winning ways.

17 – Justin Smoak 1B with the Rangers just got the call to join the big club after last night’s game against the Red Sox. If he does well, Chris Davis will probably be on the trading block.

16 – Kyle Drabek RHP with the Blue Jays is not getting off to a good start in AA as his line looks like this so far: 2/1/5.17/3/0/15.2/9/13, but I expect that his ERA will drop. Without Halladay in Toronto, their rotation is now very young and if he can improve upon his walk to strikeout ratio he might get a look in 2010 especially if there becomes a need.

15 – Martin Perez LHP with the Rangers if either Colby Lewis and/or Matt Harrison falter, it could pave the way for Dave Holland and Perez to fill in those shoes. So far in AA he has this line 0/0/2.08/2/0/8.2/4/8 which isn’t great, but it isn’t bad either. I’d like to see a larger sample size before making a call on this one long term.

14 – Ryan Westmoreland OF with the Red Sox recently had brain surgery and is currently in rehab. It is unknown whether he’ll be able to even play baseball again…let’s pray that he does!

13 – Jeremy Hellickson RHP with the Rays with Andy Sonnanstine in the bullpen I would be hard pressed to see him with the Rays at all this year even though he’s off to a great start in AAA with a 3/0/1.42/3/0/19.0/3/21 line. If he can keep up those numbers he might just force the Rays hands to make a mid-season deal to fill any gaps they might have. He may just be ready now (like Wade Davis).

12 – Dustin Ackley OF/2B with the Mariners and is currently struggling in AA at the moment hitting only .173/7/0/2/7/8/.283/13. His only chance at making this team is as an infielder if Lopez falters at 3B and they move Figgins back there, but for that to happen he needs to up his average about 100 points or you can forget about it until 2011 at the earliest. As things stand now, I wouldn’t even call him up in September.

11 – Chris Carter 1B with the Athletics is batting .283/8/2/8/2/15/0/.321/13 so far in AAA and if Daric Barton goes on the Dl at any time this season I’m sure you’ll see him on the A’s unless these numbers dip below this threshold. On any other team these numbers probably wouldn’t validate a pre-September call-up.

As of this writing, the top 10, surprisingly don’t have as many players already in the bigs as this list already has (3/10), but it might by the time I write it!

Related posts:

1. The 411 on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 20 Prospects: #’s 1-10
2. MLB STUDIES DRSEA SUGGESTION TO FINGERPRINT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BASEBALL PROSPECTS
3. Red Sox Trade Bait & Prospects

Of the 25 Pittsburgh Pirates who took the field on Opening Day 2008, 7 remain with the organization today. General manager Neal Huntington has turned over his depth chart methodically and added a number of talented prospects to his farm system. Doing so was not easy. Huntington sent away All-Stars in Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson in the past year, undoubtedly frustrating the average fan in the process.

Considering a streak of 16 consecutive losing seasons is likely to be extended once again come October, no one would blame yinzers for questioning the team’s intentions. Five-year rebuilding plans have come and gone with no results. The current roster features 1 player over the age of 30 — utility infielder Ramon Vazquez — and millions of dollars have been slashed from the payroll.

Huntington’s late July fire sale included deals for Sanchez, Wilson, Ian Snell, John Grabow, Tom Gorzelanny and Adam LaRoche. Sean Burnett, traded with popular outfielder Nyjer Morgan to the Washington Nationals in June, recently called the Pirates the laughingstock of the league. And maybe there was truth in Burnett’s outburst — despite being considered winners at the trade deadline by national baseball writers, the team had turned into a punchline. Huntington listened to offers on everyone and anything, including the kitchen sink, in the nearly unprecedented sell off.

But what choice did he have?

The GM entered an impossible situation when he inherited Dave Littlefield’s job. The major league roster was weak and aging, but the minors were undeveloped, too. Huntington did what was necessary: He kept what little talent could be controlled long-term and dealt remaining assets at as high a price as the market would bear. For the first time in years, the franchise would develop from within. Littlefield’s goal of reaching a single .500 season would no longer be considered acceptable. The cycle of overpaying role players and ignoring premium talent pools would end.

Huntington deserves the benefit of the doubt, and as soon as this winter he could prove his plan has the team headed in the right direction. After shedding veterans past their primes, targeting players with over-slot bonus demands in the draft and entering the Latin American free agent market aggressively, Huntington can take one more action to assure me that he’s the man who will turn the organization around.

Sign Andrew McCutchen to a long-term deal.

Fans lacking savvy would be quick to point out that Huntington extended McLouth, Sanchez and Snell, only to trade them away. There’s a difference between buying out arbitration years and cheaply controlling a premium player through three seasons of free agency, though. That’s exactly what the Tampa Bay Rays were able to do with Evan Longoria in April of 2008, just days into the franchise third baseman’s career in the show. There was no doubt that Longoria would emerge as a star, and so the team offered the 22-year-old a guaranteed $17.5 million. The Rays bought out his arbitration seasons and acquired club options for three free agency years.

Longoria could have hit the open market before 2014, and if history is any indicator, the Yankees or Red Sox or Mets or Cubs would have signed him then to a huge, multi-year contract. Instead, should Longoria progress as expected, the Rays can choose to control him from 2014-2016 for a combined $28 million. According to FanGraphs’ value statistics, Longoria was worth $24.1 million in 2008 alone.

It’s now that Huntington needs to sign a player of McCutchen’s star power; he can’t afford to wait until his center fielder can see free agency coming. Give McCutchen a life-changing amount — which $18-20 million certainly is — and ensure that he’ll be a key contributor to sustained winning in Pittsburgh through his physical peak. By all accounts McCutchen is a hard-working, explosive, two-way standout. His debut has quieted even the harshest critics. Prove to him, to his peers and to the Steel City that the Pirates are serious about winning and keeping the best players in Pittsburgh. Piecing together a top farm system is meaningless if All-Stars can’t be retained when they’re needed most.

Related posts:

1. Boston Adds a Bat
2. Another One Bites The Dust
3. Pirates will remain sellers as deadline approaches

To save you, the reader, from any boring details I will only look at the catchers who have appeared in over 40 games and are hitting .250 or better. I then looked at the scouting reports from Sox Prospects.com on those top hitting catchers to get a feel for their defensive ability.

I looked at the stats of these catchers from AAA Pawtucket, AA Portland, A Advanced Salem, A Greenville, A Short Season Lowell & R Ft. Myers through 7/29/09.

This whittled the list down to 4 catchers, 2 of whom are still in level A ball, we’ll start with them. The other 2 come from both Portland and Pawtucket.

Tim Federowicz

After 76 games between single A Greenville (55 games) and Salem Advanced (21 games), Federowicz had some pretty impressive numbers. He scored 43 runs on 94 hits (most than any other catcher in the Sox system),  24 of those were doubles and 11 were HRs (most than any other catcher in the Red Sox system), while knocking in 40 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .278 with an OBP of only .316 with 2 SBs. Unfortunately, he also has the most errors than any other catcher in the system with 8. Another mark against him is hi BB/K ratio of 18/53.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Behind the plate, Federowicz presently is above average defensively, and has the tools to develop into a very good major league defensive catcher. Extremely strong and accurate arm with a quick release.  Outstanding at throwing runners out.  Calls a good game and handles the pitching staff well.  Glovework can use a little bit of improvement.

Luis Exposito

Exposito has played all of his 74 games in single A Salem Advanced and most of his numbers, except for runs, hits and HRs, are improvements from Federowicz. He scored only 28 runs on 78 hits, 24 of those were doubles, 1 triple and 6 were HRs (second most than any other catcher in the Red Sox system), while knocking in 45 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .279 with an OBP of .338 with 3 SBs. Unfortunately, he also has the second most errors than any other catcher in the system with 7. Another mark against him is hi BB/K ratio of 23/48.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Behind the plate, Exposito has tremendous catcher’s tools, including very good blocking skills, a strong arm, great instincts, and outstanding game calling ability.  However, he could use some improvement with his glovework and his throwing accuracy.  Gunned down 28.5% of attempted base stealers in 2008, which is below average.

Juan Apodaca

Apodaca has played all of his 41 games in AA Portland where he has scored 19 runs on 35 hits, 9 of them being doubles and 2 HRs while knocking in 17 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .250 with an OBP of .325 with 1 SB. He has 4 errors from behind the plate and another mark against him is his BB/K ratio of 14/34.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Apodaca has good catching skills and a strong arm.  Works with pitchers well.

Mark Wagner

Wagner is currently in Triple A Pawtucket where he has played in 16 games and is currently catching knuckleballer Charlie Zink. He played 42 games in AA Portland. He has scored a total of 26 runs on 58 hits, 25 of them being doubles and 3 HRs while knocking in 26 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .256 with an OBP of .334 with 1 SB. He has only 1 error from behind the plate and that’s after catching Zink. He also sports a BB/K ratio of 32/37. Also worthy to not are his AA/AAA splits. He hit .301 with an OBP of .410 and a BB/K ratio of 28/26 in Portland in those 42 games. In the 16 games in Pawtucket so far, he has only hit .211 with an OBP of .258 and a BB/K ratio of 4/11. I wonder how much of his adjustments in Pawtucket have to do with working on catching the knuckleball.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Good defensive catcher with a sturdy frame.  Excellent at throwing runners out.  Average at blocking balls in the dirt and catching mistake pitches off the plate.  Calls a good game, but needs to improve framing pitches.  Nimble behind the plate, looks very good fielding bunts.  Has the potential to be an excellent defensive catcher at the major league level.  He is said to be an extremely hard worker with strong leadership ability.

My Analysis

Federowicz has to work on his glove work (8 errors) as was noted in the scouting report above. In my opinion, this is critical to a catcher’s job security, but maybe this can be improved along with his plate discipline. I do like what his bat brings to the table, especially his power numbers. Other than that and MiLB seasoning, he might be a viable option in 3 or 4 years. Unfortunately, it would be unwise to play more than another year with Varitek as the Red Sox starting catcher.

Exposito, I am told, is high up on the prospect list internally for the Red Sox. He too needs to strengthen his glove work (7 errors) and after reading his scouting report, I wonder how many of those errors were throwing related. Other than that, the scouts have given him glowing reviews defensively and with a little more plate discipline, he would be a very good offensive catcher in the majors.

Apodaca is not mentioned as highly by the scouts defensively as the rest of these guys are, but he is now the starting catcher I believe in Portland so he’ll be a player to look out for in the second half to see if his defense improves. His bat alone isn’t good enough to make it.

If Wagner can bring his offensive numbers closer to his Portland totals with more games under his belt, along with his ability to catch Zink (barring no obvious hiccups), he just might get called up to Boston in September. The only player in his way is current Pawtucket catcher Dusty Brown and Brown would need one of two things to happen in order to block Wagner. Either Wagner struggles to hit like he did in Portland or Brown starts hitting at least 20 to 30 points higher than he is currently. The only knock the scouts had on Wagner behind the plate was in framing pitches and I assume that can easily be learned.

Honorable Mention

John Otness is currently playing at AAA Pawtucket after starting the year in AA Portland. He is having a good offensive year so far, but doesn’t seem to be too high on the Red Sox depth chart at the catcher position.

Related posts:

1. The Top 10 Fantasy Catchers of 2009
2. 2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: Catchers
3. Red Sox Trade Bait & Prospects

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Major League Baseball has seen 18 trades go down in the past week. While the contenders struggled to find the final missing piece, the cellar dwellers took on prospects with an eye towards the future.

So what does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, I’m glad you asked.

Did you know that Cliff Lee has a career 3.05 ERA against the National League? I’ll bet you didn’t.

Related posts:

1. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: The All-Overappreciated Team
2. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Three Prospects to Keep an Eye on
3. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Three Pitchers To Buy Low On