Image taken from Google Images c/o the Bleacher Report

Dustin Ackley will be making the most highly anticipated Seattle Mariner debut on June 17^th 2011 since the debut of one King Felix Hernandez in 2005.

Ackley got off to an abysmal start in April, but he then hit .355/.443/.605 in May and .346/.500/.538 in June. Yes, he’s due for regression away from those numbers, but the entirety of his Triple-A numbers are not built on a house of cards. In his short minor league career, Ackley owns an extremely impressive BB/K of 130/117, which leads many to believe he has a strong chance to make a flawless transition to the Major Leagues, and possibly make a Buster Posey-like impact for the Mariners putrid offense.

Now, I don’t believe in arbitrarily limiting your sample size just because you don’t like parts of it, but even as a Sabermetric fanatic, I’m also a big believer in deferring to scouts in most instances when it comes to minor league talent evaluation. There has never been any doubt among scouts that Ackley will hit in the Major Leagues. Even in both of Ackley’s miserable Aprils (.147/.289/.227 in 2010; .211/.333/.305 in 2011), scouts never wavered.

Ackley’s minor league track record is good but not particularly awe-inspiring on the whole. However, they get more impressive when you add in the fact that he began his pro career in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Texas League instead of getting broken in with a brief stint in the low minors like most top college draftees.

And while Tacoma is more of a hitters park now since its 2011 renovation, it’s still at sea level, which contrasts with the high elevations of the rest of the PCL. Numbers in Tacoma are depressed compared to numbers in, say, Salt Lake.

Both of Ackley’s Aprils drag down his overall minor league career and are not representative of what Ackley will do in the Majors. The aggregate of the rest of his minor league numbers need regression, but be confident that the peak of his Major League career will display better rate stats than his minor league career of .280/.387/.435.

In one of the most anticipated roster moves of the 2011 season, the Kansas City Royals promoted third base prospect Mike Moustakas from Triple-A on Friday. He has exactly one hit (including his first major league HR on Saturday) and one run in each of his first three games.

Moustakas ranked as the No. 9 prospect according to Baseball America prior to the 2011 season, one spot behind teammate Eric Hosmer, and several spots ahead of productive rookies Michael Pineda (16), Freddie Freeman (17), Zach Britton (28), Danny Espinosa (66) and Craig Kimbrel (86).

After the Royals selected him No. 2 overall in the 2007 draft, Moustakas led the low Class A Midwest League with 22 HRs in his first full season, while posting a .272/.337/.468 slash. He followed that up with a disappointing 2009 season at high Class A where he hit .250/.297/.421 with 50 extra-base hits (16 HRs) and 86 RBI in 530 plate appearances.

Moustakas improved his plate approach in 2010, according to Baseball America:

“He started laying off pitches that he couldn’t do much damage to, leading to more favorable counts and more opportunities to unleash his plus-plus power.”

Let me repeat that: plus-plus power.

He bounced back in a big way in 2010, posting a .322/.369/.630 slash between Double-A and Triple-A with an eye-popping 77 extra-base hits, 124 RBI, and tied for the minor league lead in home runs with 36.

Moustakas has come back down to earth a bit this season, posting a still respectable 10 HRs, 44 RBI and a .287/.347/.498 slash in 55 games with Omaha.

The 22-year-old left-handed batter has excellent bat speed and power to all fields. He doesn’t walk much, but he has an extraordinary ability to make contact. His limited range and poor footwork will likely land him in the outfield someday, but for now, his fantasy value is significant in all leagues thanks to his power bat at third base.

Considering the injuries to David Wright, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, and the general suckiness of most other third baseman, “Moose” is a must-add in all leagues. He’s capable of posting double digit dingers for the rest of the season with a solid average, and is expected to be a middle-of-the-order stalwart in the Royals lineup for years to come.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Buy or Sell?: Ogando / Jurrjens / Rios / Jimenez / H. Ramirez / Bruce / A. Ramirez  

Prospect Report: Anthony Rizzo / Jemile Weeks / Dee Gordon / Paul Goldschmidt

Closer’s Corner, Week 10: Soria, Bailey, Guerra, Rauch & More

Top Rookies: Jerry Sands / Michael Pineda / Zach Britton / Brandon Belt / Mike Minor

2011 Rankings: C / 1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF / SP / Top 100 / All-Breakout Team 

Keeper Conundrum: Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill? / Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

Photo taken from Google Images

The good thing about baseball is that even fans of the perpetually obsolete clubs have hope each year. With the emergence of a hot prospect or still-green major leaguer, a team’s fortunes can change for the better. Take the 2008 Rays — after losing more than 90 games each year since the franchise’s inception and stockpiling young players, they made a sudden 31-game improvement, qualified for the playoffs for the first time and reached the World Series. Second on the team in both homeruns and RBIs, 22-year-old rookie Evan Longoria was a key component of their lineup and the team’s overall success. A productive young player can also transform a good team into a great team — NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey was the World Series champion’s best offensive player after he was called up late last May. So who will be 2011′s Evan Longoria or Buster Posey? Here are 15 youngsters with the talent and potential to make significant impacts this season.

1. Jeremy Hellickson, SP — Rays: The Rays’ latest super prospect, Hellickson inherits the spot vacated by Matt Garza, who became expendable when Hellickson flashed his goods in four starts last season. In AAA in 2010, he posted a 12-3 record and 2.45 ERA, and tossed 9.4 K/9 and just 2.7 BB/9. He boasts a mid-90s fastball and great command that allows him to effectively throw a curve and changeup. He’ll certainly hit his rough patches in the AL East in his first full year, but he has the stuff to quickly become among baseball’s best starters.
2. Brandon Belt, 1B — Giants: With Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner fixed in the rotation, and Posey and now Belt anchoring the lineup, the Giants appear to be just kicking off a long successful run. Belt may essentially become this season’s Posey. Across three levels last season, he tallied 23 homeruns, 112 RBIs, 22 steals and hit .352/.455/.620. At 6’5, 220 pounds, he possesses all the tools to become a well-rounded player.
3. Domonic Brown, OF — Phillies: Brown got a taste of the majors in 35 games late last season, but the inconsistent playing time hindered him from finding his rhythm. The departure of Jason Werth — Brown made him expendable — opened up a spot in right field, which is now occupied by Ben Francisco because of Brown’s broken hand. When he returns and gains confidence, the Phillies are hoping for the five-tool production he displayed in AA and AAA last season, where in 93 games, he hit .327/.391/.589 with 22 doubles, 20 homeruns, 68 RBIs and 17 stolen bases.
4. Aroldis Chapman, RP — Reds: Still the setup man for Francisco Cordero, it’s uncertain whether Chapman will be a starter or closer long-term — Cordero’s sometimes erratic ways make one more of a lingering possibility than the other. With a fastball that has been clocked at 105 mph, Chapman has the gas to fluster major league hitters, but he’ll need to refine his repertoire and upgrade his control if he wants to pitch every five days.
5. Michael Pineda, SP — Mariners: A one-two punch of Felix and Pineda could be daunting for the Mariners’ AL West foes in the coming years. In 2010, Pineda rebounded from a 2009 plagued by injuries, going 11-4 with a 3.36 ERA and throwing 9.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in AA and AAA. An imposing figure, the 6’5, 255 pound Dominican features a mid-to-high-90s fastball with movement to complement plus control. He should continue to post solid numbers during his rookie campaign in the unfriendly confines of Safeco field.
6. Freddie Freeman, 1B — Braves: The next wave of promising Braves prospects includes Freeman, a first baseman who’s been compared to Kent Hrbek because of his 6’5 frame and defensive proficiency. His fluid swing and plate discipline enabled him to hit .319/.378/.521 in AAA last season. Currently on the thin side — 225 pounds — he doesn’t appear to be a power threat yet, but he could drive in a lot of runs.
7. Chris Sale, RP — White Sox: Drafted with the 13th pick last June out of Florida Gulf Coast University, Sale made his major league debut just weeks later, making 21 appearances and posting a 1.93 ERA with a 12.5 K/9 and four saves. In 2011, the southpaw is slotted as Matt Thornton’s setup man, where he’ll continue to use his explosive upper-90s fastball to blow away hitters in the late innings. Sale has good command and resultantly a solid changeup and plus slider. He’ll make an intimidating starter when the time comes.
8. J.P. Arencibia, C — Blue Jays: Despite struggling in spring training, Arencibia will be entrusted with a lion’s share of the Blue Jays’ catching responsibilities this season. Specializing in power, he hit .301/.359/.626 with 32 bombs in AAA last season. In his major league debut, he hit two bombs, causing Blue Jays fans to lick their chops. Arencibia and Drabek (see below) are among the most intriguing of the AL East’s hot prospects in 2011.
9. Mike Minor, SP — Braves: Now that Stephen Strasburg is injured, Minor has become the most followed starter of the 2009 draft. A finesse pitcher, the lefty reminds a lot of Braves fans of Denny Neagle with his ability to change speeds. His changeup is an effective strikeout pitch — last season in AA and AAA, he averaged 10.9 K/9. His fastball has gained velocity in the minors, now reaching the low-90s. Although he’s beginning the year in AAA, he’ll get the first shot when a spot frees up in the Braves’ rotation.
10. Desmond Jennings, OF — Rays: Through most of his professional career, Jennings has been compared to Carl Crawford, who joined the Red Sox last winter. Jennings’ audition for the outfield spot began late last season, but he struggled as he played sporadically. During the spring, he again struggled, hitting .154 while swiping only one base. As a result, he’s beginning the year back in the minors, where last season he hit .278/.362 with 37 steals on 41 attempts. He’s expected to return to the Rays sometime this season — Johnny Damon, after all, isn’t young.
11. Jesus Montero, C — Yankees: Montero may be the next great Yankees catcher — if he remains at the position — but the presence of the newly acquired Russell Martin is delaying his inevitable emergence. Valued for his bat, Montero has hit .313/.371/.510 during his minor league career, and last season in AAA, he blasted a career-high 21 homeruns. Additionally, he’s made strides on defense, where he’s already known for having a rocket arm.
12. Dustin Ackley, 2B — Mariners: At some point this season, Ackley will be promoted as the Mariners’ starting second baseman, and will likely become entrenched in the position– a new one for him — for years to come. The former North Carolina star was named the Arizona Fall League MVP after using his smooth swing and impressive hand-eye coordination to collect gaudy stats. His weaknesses in the strike zone are few, he’s patient, and he has plus speed, perfect for the top of the order.
13. Mike Moustakas, 3B — Royals: In 2010, Moustakas solidified his status as one of baseball’s premier power prospects, leading the minors with 36 homeruns while hitting .322/.369/.630 in AA and AAA. His sturdy strength is expected to translate to the next level, and the Royals, who were 26th in the majors in homeruns in 2010, probably won’t wait long until they pencil him into the lineup alongside Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and fellow slugger Kila Ka’aihue.
14. Kyle Drabek, SP — Blue Jays: Son of 1990 NL Cy Young award winner Doug Drabek, Kyle battled through high expectations and Tommy John surgery to forge an excellent minor league career. He has developed a multitude of plus pitches on which to rely, but his forte is his curveball, which effectively induces ground balls. Given his pedigree, it’s no surprise that he’s so advanced mentally. Like Hellickson, he’ll need every strength to endure the baptism by fire that’ll occur in baseball’s most difficult division.
15. Zach Britton, SP — Orioles: After a spring training in which he posted a microscopic 1.35 ERA, Britton proved that he was worthy of filling in for the injured Brian Matusz. He’ll do his part to improve the Orioles’ staff, which placed 28th in the majors in ERA last season. His three-to-one groundout/fly-out ratio in the minors in 2010 indicate that he’ll likely transition well, and could remain in the majors for longer than just a cup of coffee.

This article was originally posted here: http://www.onlinedegree.net/15-mlb-newcomers-to-watch-in-2011/

Last week I received an intriguing e-mail from an avid reader of the site. Essentially, he asked me to choose between Nationals’ right fielder Bryce Harper and Angels’ center fielder Mike Trout in a keeper/dynasty format.

My initial reaction was Harper, without question. After a few days of thought, however, my answer became much more complicated…

Mike Trout image taken from Google Images

Mike Trout was the Angels’ first round pick (25th overall) in 2009, signing for $1.215 million. He was the No. 1 ranked prospect in the Rookie-level Arizona League, posting a .360/.418/.506 triple-slash, stealing 13 bases in 15 attempts in 164 at-bats.

He advanced to to low Class A Cedar Rapids to start 2010, where he won the Midwest League’s batting (.362) and on-base (.454) titles. He was promoted to high Class A Rancho Cucamonga in mid-July and hit .306/.388/.434 in 196 at-bats. In total, Trout posted an eye-popping 106 runs, 10 HRs, 58 RBI, 56 steals (in 71 attempts, 81.7 percent), .341/.428/.490 in 508 at-bats at the tender age of 18 (he turned 19 in August).

Baseball America notes Trout “is a rare five-tool talent” with a “strong, compact stroke and impressive batting eye.” Scouts say his speed is a present and future 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, while his bat and arm are graded as a 70. His bat speed and physicality suggest he’ll develop 20-HR power in the majors.

Peter Bourjos is currently blocking Trout in center field, but the New Jersey native won’t be ready for the majors until 2012 at the earliest. Trout could move to left field if needed, but he projects as a Gold Glove center fielder.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Bryce Harper has gotten all the hype he ever could have dreamed of, being dubbed “Baseball’s Chosen One” by Sports Illustrated at age 16.

In 2009, Harper earned the equivalency of a high school diploma, allowing him to skip his final two years at Las Vegas High and enroll at the JC of Southern Nevada. In a wood bat conference, Harper hit .443/.526/.987, while leading national juco players and shattering the previous school record (12) with 31 HRs. He also stole 20 bases in 24 attempts, and played right field, center field, third base and catcher.

He was the obvious No. 1 pick for the Washington Nationals’ in last June’s draft, signing a $9.9 million major league contract – the most ever awarded to a position player in the draft’s history.

Harper hit .343/.410/.629 in just 35 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League. There’s a chance he could jump straight to high Class A Potomac to start the 2011 season at the age of 18.

Harper, a left-handed hitter, is well known for the 502-feet HR hit at Tropicana Field in the 2009 Power Showcase. (Check out the YouTube video here and skip to 4:16 for the record-breaking moon shot.)

Harper’s power “rates as a legitimate 80 tool on the 20-80 scouting scale,” according to Baseball America; as one scout told me, “He could re-write the power scale.”

Some scouts question if he’ll hit for a high average in the majors because of his aggressive swing, but his bat rates as a 60.

His hand-eye coordination and work ethic are off the charts, and BA notes he possesses “slightly above-average speed.” The Nationals drafted Harper as a right fielder, and his 80 arm makes for an ideal fit. His realistic ETA is 2013, and he has “super-star potential.”

In comparing these two young phenoms for fantasy purposes only, I project Trout as having the more dynamic game. His ceiling is likely in the range of 20 HRs, 50 steals and a .320 batting average. How many players reached those totals last season, you ask? None. In fact, 20/50/.320 hasn’t been reached since Hanley Ramirez posted a redonkulous 29/51/.332 line in 2007.

Harper, on the other hand, has a 50-HR ceiling and will likely hit .300 consistently. The last time 50/.300 happened? Also 2007, when Alex Rodriguez hit 54 HRs with a .314 batting average. The last time a player who wasn’t juicing did it? Who knows.

Bottom line: Trout and Harper both have stud potential. Trout is probably the safer pick, but Harper has the higher ceiling. Trout is a year ahead of Harper, and thus will likely win the hearts of fantasy managers first. (No pressure, fellas.)

If you ask me, I’d take 20/50/.320 over 50/.300, but even that’s debatable.

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings

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• Top 50 (projections included): Is Pujols Still the Top Pick?
• No. 51: Ubaldo Jimenez
• No. 52: Rickie Weeks
• No. 53: Derek Jeter
• No. 54: Adam Dunn
• No. 55: Justin Morneau
• No. 56: Justin Verlander
• No. 57: Chris Carpenter

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
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• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Stephen Strasburg Photo by Icon SMI

Throughout the course of the year, there are several different dates/events that receive plenty of hype and that fans look forward to.  Opening Day, Week 1, the All-Star Break, the Trade Deadline and Free Agency are just a handful.  Another event that generates plenty of hype and optimism is the Amateur Draft.  Each sport has one with varying levels of media coverage.  The NFL and  NBA drafts, rightfully so, generate the most fanfare because the impact of rookies can be immediate in some cases.  Guys like Brandon Jennings, Matt Forte, Chris Paul and Percy Harvin are guys who played a large role in the performance of their teams on the field/court as rookies and also contributed mightily to the success of countless fantasy managers.  MLB is obviously a little bit different.  Very rarely do draftees make the jump from college or high school to the highest level of pro ball.  Mike Leake is certainly a humongous exception.  Fans have to be more patient with their MLB teams’ draft picks than they do with those of their NFL and NBA teams, but that has not stopped MLB from trying to turn their draft into a larger and more media friendly event.

Lately, though, it seems as though the required amount of patience required from MLB fans awaiting their top prospects has been shorter.  Tighter wallets/fatter bonuses (ironic, huh?) and higher expectations have combined to create the urgency and temptation to push top talent more aggressively through the Minors to the Bigs.  Bigger talent and better developmental systems allows these prospects to answer the call.  Not only are young guys making tangible contributions to their real teams’ win-loss records, but they are also making sizable impacts on fantasy leagues – keeper leagues in particular.  Here are a few guys from recent drafts who serve as evidence of the decreasing gap between Draft Day and Opening Day.

2009 Draft

Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, Debut: June 8, 2010) – He should have done the “Mike Leake” before Leake did it.  He’s already lived up to the hype early on striking out 22 in 12.1 innings.

Mike Leake (8th overall, Debut: April 11, 2010) – Not as explosive as “The Stras”, but he has a 2.68 ERA in 77.1 IP without any Minor League experience – impressive!

Drew Storen (10th overall, Debut: May 17, 2010) – Future closer is already helping to bolster the Nats’ bullpen.

2008 Draft

Brian Matusz (4th overall, Debut: August 4, 2009) – The numbers aren’t pretty, but considering that he’s a rookie pitching in the AL (b) East, he deserves some credit for standing up to the competition even if his ERA is 4.92.

Buster Posey (5th overall, Debut: May 29, 2010) – He’s currently batting .344 and I’ve seen him described as “the right-handed Joe Mauer“.  What else needs to be said?

Gordon Beckham (8th overall, Debut: June 4, 2009) – Struggling mightily in 2010, but had a great rookie year, batting .270 and belting 14 homers.

Justin Smoak (11th overall, Debut: April 23, 2010) – Struggling in his first go-around, but has shown solid command of the strike zone with a 27/40 BB/K ratio.

Ike Davis (18th overall, Debut: April 19, 2010) – Mets are .5 game out of first place and Davis is a big reason why.

2007 Draft

David Price (1st overall, Debut: September 14, 2008) – 10 wins so far in 2010!

Matt Wieters (5th overall, Debut: May 29, 2009) – Not living up to the hype so far, but he is another guy who was compared to Mauer coming up.  “Mauer with power” – what’s not to like about that?

Jason Heyward* (14th overall, Debut: April 5, 2010) – The J-Hey Kid has an .875 OPS as a 20-year old.

Rick Porcello* (27th overall, Debut: April 9, 2009) – Ugly numbers in 2010, but pitched 170.2 innings of 3.96 ball as a 20-year old rookie in 2009.

Mike Stanton* (76th overall, Debut: June 8, 2010) – Trying to carry his juggernaut Double-A production into the Marlins lineup.

2006 Draft

Photo by Icon SMI

Evan Longoria (3rd overall, Debut: April 12, 2008) – Reached full-blown stud status in 2009.

Clayton Kershaw* (7th overall, Debut: May 25, 2008) – The walks come in bunches, but he’s got a career 9.47 K/9 and .211 BAA.

Tim Lincecum (10th overall, Debut: May 6, 2007) – Two full seasons, two Strikeout Crowns (if such a thing really exists), two Cy Young Awards.

*Drafted out of high school

It is evident from the list above that most of the players making quick impacts on the Major League level are those that are drafted out of college.  Even so, the time between draft and debut is shrinking.  Not only that, but we are starting to see more high school talent making quicker rises through the Minors as well.  This means that many of the players from the 2010 draft (the guys not named Bryce Harper) will become familiar names before long.  We’ll watch several of them in the 2011 Future’s Game and then by 2012 we will start seeing some of them in MLB unis.  The ascension of top draft picks is not as quick as it is in the NFL or NBA, but the wait isn’t as long as it used to be.

Fantasy Ruckus

Catcher – Mike Napoli; I recently suggested that fantasy managers keep an eye on Ryan Doumit for the simple fact that he was going to be spending some time at 1B on the days he wasn’t catching.  Well, Mike Napoli already has 1B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, and with Kendry Morales gone for the season, he will finally get the 450+ ABs that fantasy owners have been hoping for.  His numbers are not too impressive right now so the price in a trade could be cheap.

First Base – Mark Teixeira, Justin Smoak; The current and “future” Teixeira have both struggled.  Smoak is a rook, so his struggles are expected.  Not so much for Teixeira.  Let’s take a deeper look into each player though.  Smoak has struck out once every four at-bats which is a bit high, but not exorbitant for a rookie.  He has been hitting line drives at a 25% clip though which one would think is enough to overcome a semi-high strikeout total and push a batting average into the .250 range – at least.  However, it seems the balls he puts into play – even those of the line drive variety – are finding gloves as his BABIP has dropped anchor at .237.  The story is quite similar for Teixiera which is fitting considering the similarities between the two players.  If you look at Teixeira’s numbers you will notice that the K & BB rates and batted ball types are very similar to what he’s done over the course of his career.  The BABIP, however, sits at .247 for the season which is substantially lower than his career mark of .305.  Buy low on Teixeira if you can and add Smoak in keeper leagues if he’s still available.  Each one should see his numbers increase from this point forward.

Second Base – Ian Kinsler; While his overall numbers aren’t exactly bad, they are not worthy of his pre-injury Top-20 draft position.  His power has been non-existent and his speed has not been on display on the base paths.  Now, we expected the drop in SB, but the drop in power is not going to fly.  He’s hitting ground balls and fly balls at a 1-1 clip and the fly balls he does hit are not being driven evidenced by his lone HR and 2% HR/FB rate.  Normally I like to roll the dice on under-performing studs, but I would have to say leave Kinsler alone for 2010 and hop on him at a discount in 2011.  Ankle injuries – especially high ankle sprains – are notoriously slow to heal and Kinsler even said that he was prepared to deal with pain for the rest of the year.  That is not an encouraging thing to hear from a player who’s argument as a Top-20 fantasy producer was already a bit sketchy heading into the season.

Third Base – Pedro Alvarez; It’s time for the Alvarez Era to being in Pittsburgh.  Word is he’ll immediately be thrust into the middle of the Pirates order.  After a slow start at Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez ended up with a .277/.363/.533 slash line with 13 HR and 53 RBI.  Slowly but surely Pittsburgh is putting together a lineup that will be more exciting if not more dangerous.

Short Stop – Hanley Ramirez; Han-Ram has had a solid season, but has it been worthy of the No. 1 or 2 overall selection in fantasy drafts?  The general consensus would have to be ‘no’.  A .290/.374/.492 line with 10 HR and 35 RBI from your short stop is nothing to complain about at all.  The only thing is, you probably passed up several guys producing at a higher level right now which is tough to swallow.  How do things look for the star short stop going forward?  First of all, he’s making a lot of contact and mostly swinging at strikes.  That tells us that he is not swinging at too many bad pitches.  Now that we’ve established that he’s not whiffing too often we can check out his batted ball numbers which are a bit out of whack.  His line drives and fly balls are down as he has hit a lot more balls on the ground so far this season.  His HR/FB rate is a robust 15.9% but only 30.4% of his contact has resulted in fly balls compared to 41.5% in 2009.  His BABIP stands out as well.  While his .299 mark this season is right in line with the league average, it pales in comparison to his .346 career mark.  To me, it just appears that Ramirez needs to get his timing and rhythm going.  I have a hard time blaming his “struggles” on his benching and the accompanying distractions nor is there an injury hampering him that we know of.  This looks like one of those instances where fantasy managers just need to stand pat and ride out the wave.  Maybe if you’re lucky someone in your league will panic and unload him at a discount.

Outfield – Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff; Who are these guys?  Well, we know Aubrey Huff, but we just haven’t seen him like this in a couple of years.  While he has been inconsistent from year to year, Huff has shown the ability to produce power and patience with a solid overall line.  Therefore, it is fair to invest in the Giant with confidence.  It is likely that he is still available in free agency and even more likely that he’ll provide a short term boost – at the very least.  I have a little less confidence in Torres, but he has been very solid all year and if you are struggling offensively, it couldn’t hurt to consider riding the hot hand.  Torres has not produce much power, but he has done some work on the bases with 11 swipes and he has shown solid strike zone command with a 30/38 BB/K.  These names are far from exciting or intimidating, but that won’t matter if they help you in the standings.

Pitching – Edward Mujica, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson; How about the Padres ‘pen?  Think they have something to do with the team’s first place standing in the NL West?  Of course they also have Heath Bell closing games out, but that is where things get interesting.  Bell has long been rumored as a trade chip for the Padres and with the emergence of the three guys before him, the decision to move him could become easier.  As a group, the aforementioned trio has combined to post a 2.40 ERA, .77 WHIP and 109/16 K/BB ratio in 97.2 IP.  Just in case you read that wrong….that is 109 strikeouts and 16 walks.  The question at this point becomes which guy receives the first crack at closing duties?  That is a question that I can not provide a good answer to.  My advice: own all three of them.

As expected, the Washington Nationals made the 17-year-old Junior College standout the No. 1 overall pick last Monday night. Unexpectedly, they selected the switch hitter as an outfielder instead of a catcher, the position at which Harper has played the most.

Ultimately, the Nationals decided Harper’s 80 raw power, excellent bat speed and strong arm would play best in right field. Keeping him at catcher would be extremely risky and delay his major-league debut by at least three years. 

Though this decision potentially hurts his long-term value to fantasy teams, it opens the door for a possible big-league debut in September 2011.

While his first taste of the majors is more likely to come in 2012, the Vegas native won’t become fantasy-relevant at least until the 2013 season at the tender age of 20.

Although Harper’s astounding talent is hard to ignore, (23 homers, .417/.509/.917 triple-slash in 180 regular-season at-bats in 2010) he’s got a long journey ahead of him.

Still, keeper and dynasty league managers will fight for his rights in drafts next season, as Harper has the ability to join the likes of Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones, Miguel Cabrera and Jason Heyward as a fantasy-relevant 20-year-old with Hall-of-Fame upside.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• Why Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg Is Already a Top-10 Fantasy Pitcher (VIDEO)
• 2010 MLB Draft: When Will Bryce Harper Become Fantasy-Relevant?
• Mike Stanton’s 2010 Fantasy Value
• Does Rangers’ Justin Smoak Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

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• What’s Wrong With Aramis Ramirez?
• Buy or Sell: Troy Glaus
• Buy or Sell: Pitcher’s Edition
• What’s Wrong With Josh Beckett?
• Padres’ Kyle Blanks, Reds’ Drew Stubbs Headline 2010 All-Breakout Team

More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:

• Mat Latos
• Cole Hamels
• Livan Hernandez
• Mike Pelfrey
• Delmon Young
• Drew Stubbs
• Nolan Reimold
• Jay Bruce
• Geovany Soto
• B.J. Upton
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Matt Wieters

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Last week we saw the retirement of one of the truly elite talents in baseball history and one of the most dominant players that played in my (and every other ~23 year old’s) generation.  Ken Griffey Jr. was my first favorite baseball player, the first guy that I would wait to watch on Sports Center and the first (and only) guy that I went out of my way to collect baseball cards for.  As a matter of fact, I still have a box of his cards in my closet.  This got me to thinking about some of the greats that have recently retired (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz – unofficially, Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Bonds – still great despite his steroid cloud, Mussina, etc.) and some of the guys who are close to calling it quits.  It is just a funny feeling for me seeing guys like these wind down their careers and fade away into the game’s background.  These are guys who I admired and sought on my fantasy squads not all that long ago, yet here they are, today, with rapidly waning fantasy relevance – if not non-existent.  Here’s the All-”My Generation” Team.  Guys who as recently as 2004 had fantasy significance, but are now at the point in their careers where they need to step aside for the new wave of talent.

C – Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez
1999 – .332/.356/.558, 35 HR, 113 RBI (AL MVP)

Is it at all possible that Pudge’s offensive achievements fly under the radar?  Not likely I hope, but that is just how good his defense was/is.  Defensive ability is not normally a factor that comes into play when talking fantasy baseball, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the guy has 13 Gold Gloves.  Obviously, there was plenty to like about his bat as well.  He had his share of injuries that took out a decent chunk of his prime years, but he still played 140+ games five times which is impressive considering he was playing those games in Texas and Florida.  The buzz these days has him making the transition into the managerial ranks.

Passing the Torch: Joe Mauer, Matt Weiters, Buster Posey (if he remains at C), Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero

1B – Todd Helton
2000 – .372/.463/.698, 42 HR, 147 RBI

It is hard to believe that Helton did not take home some MVP hardware with a season like that.  In fact, he didn’t finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  Regardless, his 2000 season was a representation (a very loud one) of the type of player he was for much of his career.  Coors Field, pre-Humidor, certainly inflated those numbers a bit, but that is something that fantasy ballers should have taken into consideration on draft day.  Coors effect or not, Helton was a dream to have on your squad.  He had HR power, was a doubles machine, drew more walks than strikeouts in his career and had 10 seasons batting .320 or better.

Passing the Torch: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Justin Smoak

2B – Luis Castillo
2000 – .334/.418/.388, 62 SB

Castillo will not send fantasy managers into a nostalgic frenzy, but he is a guy who played an important role as a SB specialist for several years.  Power was absent from his game, but his ability on the base paths was a valuable asset to many fantasy owners who missed out on the power options in the middle infield.  In addition to the 369 swipes he has accumulated in his career, he has also batted .291 and on-based at a .368 clip.

Passing the Torch: Gordon Beckham, Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado, Chris Getz (future SB specialist?)

3B – Chipper Jones
1999 – .319/.441/.633, 45 HR, 110 (NL MVP)

Oh yeah, Jones tossed in 25 stolen bases during his MVP campaign as well.  Unfortunately, Jones has really struggled with injuries since 2004, but that should not keep him out of the Hall.  Jones, like Helton (and a lot of the guys that will end up on this list), was everything you can ask for as an anchor for a fantasy lineup.  Again, the injuries may keep him from reaching the 500 HR plateau, but that does not take away from the superior power/patience/batting average package that Jones provided.

Passing the Torch: David Wright, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman

SS – Miguel Tejada
2004 – .311/.360/.534, 34 HR, 150 RBI

Another doubles machine, Tejada ushered in the 2nd wave of offensive minded shortstops that followed Jeter, A-Rod and Nomar.  One of the most impressive stats of Tejada’s career that is sure to fall a bit under the radar is his six straight seasons (2001-2006) of playing 162 games.  Of course, fans in Baltimore were not impressed by that streak, but you can’t win in fantasy baseball when your studs don’t play.

Passing the Torch: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar

OF – Manny Ramirez

2000 – .351/.457/.697, 38 HR, 122 RBI

Nice season, huh?  He only played 118 games.
OF – Vladimir Guerrero
2002 – .336/.417/.593, 39 HR, 111 RBI, 40 SB

What needs to be said about a season like this?  It is not very often you come across guys who can provide power and speed in surplus while walking (84) more than he strikes out (70).

OF – Bobby Abreu
2004 – .301/.428/.544, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 40 SB

Abreu produced several seasons similar to 2004, but was always a guy who was slept on.  He has been a very solid player throughout his career, but has not received the same type of star treatment that others in his class received.

Manny and Vlad have been two of the most feared sluggers in baseball over the past decade and a half.  The two are only portions of themselves today, but every now and then you can still see them turn back the clock and show off the type of talent that made them perennial first rounders in fantasy drafts.  Abreu is not quite in their class, but that is not to say that he was not a great contributor in his prime as well.  One of the most balanced players, he would provide speed, power, score runs, drive in runs and draw 100+ walks per season.  Each of these guys was a fantasy stud and simply having one of them to serve as a pillar of a lineup was a good start.  In 2004, I actually had all three in my outfield.  Imagine that.

Passing the Torch: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton

SP – Pedro Martinez

1999 – 23-4, 213.1 IP, 2.07 ERA, 313 K (Cy Young)

SP – Greg Maddux
1995 – 19-2, 209.2 IP, 1.63 ERA, 181 K (Cy Young)

1995 was only his fourth consecutive Cy Young.

I cheated a little bit considering Martinez is the only one who is still “active”, but its tough not to give it up for these guys.  Maddux was different from the other guys in that he utterly dominated with command, movement and craftiness.  Any “soft tosser” that can make fantasy managers excited deserves some props.  It would be nice if I could find something to say about the dominance achieved by Pedro and the “Big Unit”, but I think their career numbers speak for themselves.  They are simply staggering.  John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine and a handful of others that could make a case to be on this list as well.

Passing the Torch: Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg

RP – Trevor Hoffman
1998 – 53 S, 1.48 ERA, 86 K

Hoffman has been one of the best closers in the game for the past 15 years or so.  The most unbelievable thing about his career is that he has walked the road to immortality with one main weapon – a change-up.  He has struggled this season for the first time in my baseball watching days and he currently sits four saves away from 600.  Closers and saves are always a polarizing topic in fantasy circles, but there really was nothing to debate when it came to evaluating Hoffman’s value and contribution to fantasy staffs.

Passing the Torch: Joe Nathan, Jon Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Neftali Feliz, Daniel Bard

Stars have been coming and going for generations, but the guys I touched on above are interesting to me because I have had the privilege of watching these guys excel in their prime and now I watch them as they play in the twilight of their career.  This is the first time in my recollection that such a large wave of future Hall of Famers has hung up the cleats in a relatively close period of time.  As one generation of great talent writes the final chapters of their careers, the best is yet to come for much of the new wave of talent that has been infused into the league.

Story of the Week

Top prospects getting the call.  Stephen Strasburg and Michael Stanton made their highly anticipated debuts last night.  At this point, there is not really anything for me to say that has not been said by anyone and everyone from seam-heads to the casual fan and even those who do not even particularly like baseball.  Interestingly, the top three prospects according to Baseball America will reside in the NL East.  We have already seen Jason Heyward get off to a nice start with the Atlanta Braves.  The toughest thing about the promotions of Strasburg and Stanton will be for fans and fantasy managers to temper their early expectations.  More often than not, even the most highly touted prospects struggle early on in their careers.  Ensuing struggles or not, it is very exciting to have these two phenoms set to kick off what we can only hope are long and productive MLB careers.

Players to Watch

Ryan Doumit, C – Doumit has been taking grounders at 1B in anticipation of future PT there when he does not catch.  This does not necessarily mean that he will be any better of a hitter than he already is or that his tepid trade value will heat up.  HOWEVER, one important thing to consider will be having a catcher in your lineup every day.  After you get past the top two or three tiers of catchers, the next best thing is a solid bat that will get lots of ABs and provide value by volume.  Doumit is particularly intriguing because he is a guy who still has some potential that he could tap into.  Keep an eye on this situation.

Luke Hochevar, SP – I don’t expect Hochevar to contribute to the success of fantasy squads anytime really soon – maybe not even this year.  I do think he is a guy that people will want to stash in the back of their minds.  His electric arm was on display in his most recent start against Detroit in which he struck out 10 Tigers in seven innings.  I like his stuff a lot and I think he is a guy who can emerge as a very solid producer before too terribly long.

Andrew Cashner, Tanner Scheppers, RP – Neither one will factor into save opportunities in 2010, but electric bullpen arms are always a helpful commodity down the stretch in H2H leagues.  Cashner offers a little bonus in that he has SP eligibility.  Seeing that both are rookies (in Schepper’s case, he’s still a minor leaguer), there is a safe chance that fantasy managers don’t receive much in the way of consistency let alone dominance.  They are both still worth keeping tabs on though.

The following list of players are from Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects that have already joined the MLB club: ranked # 34 – Wade Davis SP with the Rays,  # 37 – Starlin Castro SS with the Cubs, # 49 – Austin Jackson OF with the Tigers, # 57 – Scott Sizemore 2B with the Tigers, # 58 – Josh Reddick OF was called up in April with the Red Sox due to injuries (to OF’s Mike Cameron & Jacoby Ellsbury) , # 59 – Mike Leake SP of the Reds, # 60 – Drew Storen SP with the Nationals, # 69 – Reid Brignac INF of the Rays, # 87 – Ike Davis 1B called up by the Mets. If I have missed anyone please let me know and I will add them to this list! Since the posting of #’s 11-20, 1B Justin Smoak (# 17) has been called up with the Rangers

The stats below around the slashes for batter are as follows BA/R/HR/RBI/BB/SO/SB/OBP/G while for pitchers it will be W-L/ERA/GS/CG/IP/BB/SO.

10. Aroldis Chapman LHP with the Reds

4-2/3.98/8/0/40.2/24/48

Not only is he a talented Cuban defector that happens to throw lefty, but he does so while throwing 100mph at times too. He needs to improve on his BB/SO ratio if he’s going to compete with Strasburg for rookie of the year in 2010. Unlike Strasburg, Chapman hasn’t been absolutely dominating AAA hitters, but he has been good. He’s also a mature 22 year old much like Strasburg and Mike Leake (also with the Reds). Barring injury, I don’t see why he won’t be in Cincinnati sometime in June, but they may let him cook at AAA until right around the trade deadline as someone (Arroyo or Harang) might get dealt.

9. Buster Posey C with the Giants

.343/29/6/30/26/30/1/.437/45

Currently tearing it up in AAA. If they don’t want to move the aging Molina after resigning him, then why not temporarily move Posey to either 1B or LF in a way to get his bat in the lineup at the big league level. He obviously no longer needs to prove anything at the AAA level.

8. Carlos Santana C with the Indians

.313/30/10/40/35/29/5/.447/44

Currently in AAA waiting for the right moment as he’s currently behind Lou Marson & Mark Redmond the major league depth chart. Given Redmond’s age and the fact that neither he nor Marson are hitting over .230, I don’t know why they wouldn’t call up Santana in June or July. That might mean DFA’ing Redmond unless they go with three catchers.

7. Desmond Jennings OF with the Rays

.256/13/0/6/10/13/11/.341/26

Currently in AAA and should stay there until his batting average climbs. He might be a bargaining chip in a deadline deal given the fact that the Rays are all set in the OF with Crawford, Upton and Zobrist. That is unless they are planning on letting Crawford walk in free agency especially seeing that Jennings might be a leadoff candidate in the future.

6. Pedro Alvarez 3B with the Pirates

.251/26/10/42/22/45/2/.342/46

Currently in AAA with a below average batting average, but nice power numbers (10/42 HR/RBI) and he strikes out too much right now. Plus he is currently blocked by LaRoche who is having a decent year so far.

5. Mike Stanton OF with the Marlins

.312/32/17/44/36/43/1/.444/42

Currently in AA, but rumors are swirling that he may make his debut the same week as another top 10 prospect is rumored. Stanton may not hit for the same high average, but he should show off his power stroke right from the start…just remember, he’s only 20! Once he’s up, he will probably stay up. The question remains as to who he will replace?

4. Jesus Montero C with the Yankees

.241/16/3/19/16/25/0/.318/39

Currently in AAA and isn’t hitting as well as he has in past years in the minors. If he were, he might have been called up when Posada or Nick Johnson hit the DL. Cervelli & Montero might be the future at catcher for the Yankees. As a reminder, he was the one MUST have player in last year’s Halladay bidding wars (and probably others as well).

3. Neftali Feliz RHP with the Rangers

He broke with the team out of spring training and has never looked back. He has been both the 8^th inning set up man and the closer, boasting triple digits on the radar gun.

2. Jason Heyward OF with the Braves

He also broke camp with the team and has been getting game winning or tying hits on a regular basis as the every day centerfielder. Let’s just hope it doesn’t all go to his head!

1. Stephen Strasburg RHP with the Nationals

In AA: 3-1/1.64/5/0/22.0/6/27

In AAA: 3-0/0.39/4/0/23.1/4/27

The only reason in my mind that he is not already in the majors is to avoid super two status, hence avoiding a huge additional payout. The word on the street (and the internet) says that he will pitch in his major league debut against the Pirates on June 8^th. When that day comes, Washington DC will be the mecca of baseball as he is expected to set the league on fire. There hasn’t been a starting pitcher with this kind of hype for as long as I can remember! It should be fun to watch how this unfolds…

Despite Smoak’s rough start, fantasy owners should take notice of the 23-year-old’s promotion.

At three different levels in 2009, Smoak hit .290/.410/.443 with 12 HRs and 57 RBI.

According to Baseball America, the 2008 first-round pick has “plus-plus power potential from both sides of the plate. He (also) has a mature, patient approach and the ability to use all fields.”

The Mark Teixeira comparisons are abundant, and for good reason. Smoak was widely considered to be one of the most advanced hitters of the 2008 draft class which featured Pedro Alvarez, Gordon Beckham and Brett Wallace.

As BA put it, Smoak – who was Matt Wieters’ teammate in high school - “projects as a middle-of-the-order power hitter and has the chance to be a superstar.”

Smoak’s promotion correlated with Chris Davis’ demotion, meaning Smoak should enjoy the bulk of the playing time for the Rangers at first base.

His power potential has yet to fully develop, which may limit his value somewhat in 2010. Given 450 at-bats in this, his rookie season, Smoak could approach 20 bombs in the hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark. He should be owned in most one-year leagues, and is a no-doubter in fantasy and dynasty leagues.

If I had to choose between Smoak and fellow recent call-up Ike Davis, Smoak would get the nod. (For more on Davis, click here.) Adjust your fantasy baseball cheat sheets accordingly.

FBI Forecast: 450 at-bats, 60 runs, 17 HRs, 75 RBI, .280 batting average

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates:

• 4/28: Who The Heck is Luis Atilano?
• 4/27: Who The Heck is Cliff Pennington?
• 4/26: Marlins’ Josh Johnson Three-Hits Padres, K’s 12 in Win
• 4/20: Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez Allows One Run, K’s 10 in Loss
• 4/19: Who the Heck is Doug Fister?

2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:

• Delmon Young
• Drew Stubbs
• Nolan Reimold
• Jay Bruce
• Geovany Soto
• B.J. Upton
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Matt Wieters

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Inbox:

• Trade Astros’ Carlos Lee for Blue Jays’ Vernon Wells?

More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Padres’ Kyle Blanks, Reds’ Drew Stubbs Headline 2010 All-Breakout Team

When I saw this contest and read the possible topics I thought it would be best to combine a few, show some versatility and have some fun with it while still providing my regular readers with some useful information. So here it goes…

When I asked myself why I would want to be a Lowell Spinners Scribe my initial reactions was an honest one, for the traffic and exposure it would provide my site. But that is selfish and is not my main goal for Baseball Reflections. Faithful followers of the site can attest to my desire to look for better ways to provide my readers with the best baseball blog I can muster visually, interactively and in content. My personal style is never too serious and I try to have a little fun while I’m at it. That’s what I like about minor league baseball and especially the Spinners. They are downright entertaining! It’s a fun family venue that engages the public and aims to provide them with the best possible product. As a husband and father I admire how they provide a family atmosphere in-between innings and it is also shows itself in how clean they keep the ballpark. Therefore, to have the privilege of having Baseball Reflections be associated, albeit for a brief time, with the Lowell Spinners would be something that fits into our mutual interests.

Now I admit that since the Spinners became affiliated with the hometown Red Sox, I have taken more of an interest in the team, but if it wasn’t for this link I wouldn’t have the ability to write about one of my favorite former Spinners at this point in the season given that he’s on the DL right now, former Spinners OF Jacoby “The Human Spark Plug” Ellsbury (former Spinners jersey # 24). Ellsbury only played one season in Lowell back in 2005, but while there he hit .317 with an OBP of .418 while stealing 23 bases in 26 attempts with 1 HR and 19 RBIs in 35 games scoring 28 runs. In the field he converted 61 out of 62 attempts for a .984 fielding % and a range factor per game (RF/G) of 2.26. What I like best about “The Human Spark Plug” is that he can affect the outcome of a game, throw off the other team’s concentration due to his awesome speed, base stealing and overall base running prowess. He can be a difference maker at the top of a line up that can be the cause of a pitcher making a bad pitch because he’s paying too much attention (and deservedly so) to Mr. Ellsbury. For example, if a pitcher makes the smallest of errors to Pedroia, Youkilis or anyone else in the Red Sox line up, the results can prove very costly and an early exit from the game. That is something we haven’t had on the Red Sox in a very long time (never in my viewing over the past 30+ years). This year I am eagerly awaiting to see if he can break the curse that seems to loom over all good defensive LF’ers and win a Gold Glove there in 2010 while Mike Cameron holds down the fort in center (once they both come off the DL).

For the rest of my online resume to become a Spinners Scribe, please check out my articles at my site, Baseball Reflections, especially my interviews (most interviews have been done by me with a few exceptions). Some of my interviews have included: Tommy John, Phillies RP Chad Durbin, female umpire Perry Lee Barber, etc.

If you are a Boston Sports Blogger, please consider going to the Boston Sports Blogapalooza at The Baseball Tavern on Sunday, May 2, 2010 from noon to 6pm. For more information or to RSVP, click HERE! I hope to see you there. If you go, please make sure to say hi!