Photo taken from Google Images

Francisco Martinez is quite a polarizing figure for a guy who most Mariner fans have never seen in person. The guy came over in the Doug Fister trade. Fister was a fan-favorite. I think Fister will regress next year, but I liked him enough as a pitcher to be sad that he’s gone. However, when he was traded to Detroit there was a perception that came from some fans and media members about Francisco Martinez.

Here are some truths, and some things that go against Martinez:

The Tigers have a shallow farm system.

Martinez hasn’t dominated at any level.

Martinez strikes out too much.

He’s not a defensive wizard yet.

That’s it. Some people have chosen to view Martinez void of all context. Martinez has been pushed quickly through the Tigers system. Last year he was four years younger than the average player in the Double A leagues he played in.

I don’t have a ton of good comprehensive metrics for minor league baseball, but Martinez had the highest OPS (.724) of any qualifying 20 year old not named Anthony Gose in the Eastern League, the league he played in with Detroit’s Double A affiliate. Gose ranks 57^th in MLB’s top 100 prospects.  If he’d have qualified in the Southern League (he’s two plate appearances short of qualifying for the leader board), where the Mariners Double-A affiliate West Tennessee plays, he’d have been the top 20 year old in the category there too (.807 OPS).

It’s not that common to see a 20 year old in the Eastern League. Here is a list of 20-and-unders from the Eastern League who have out OPS’d Martinez recently.

2010

Anthony Rizzo: .815 OPS, 37^th best prospect in 2012

2009

Jesus Montero (you may have heard of him): .909 OPS, 12^th best prospect in 2012

Jose Tabata: .774 OPS, 75^th prospect in 2009 (in the majors since then)

Ruben Tejeda: .732 OPS

2008

Travis Snider: .818 OPS, 6^th best prospect in 2009 (in majors since 2010)

Fernando Martinez: .772 OPS, 30^th best prospect in baseball in 2009

The point here isn’t to say that Martinez is as good a prospect as any of these guys. It’s worth nothing however, that save for Tejeda, who was a shortstop who moved to second base because of Jose Reyes, the other players project to play either corner outfield positions, first base, or DH long term.

Martinez may not be a defensive wizard at this point in his career, but unlike Alex Liddi, if he moves off the position he’ll end up in one of those corner outfield positions, not in the log-jam that should be first base five years from now. Martinez is a superior athlete to the rest of the Mariners bat-first third base prospects. That’s not to say that Martinez defensive struggles aren’t a concern. He’s much more valuable to the team or in a trade if he sticks at third base. But if he can’t hang at the hot corner his value isn’t sapped as a guy with a below-average first baseman ceiling. He’s further along defensively than Dustin Ackley was at this time last year, also.

And how about those strikeouts? I don’t know if I mentioned this, but Martinez played at least one level up from where he’d traditionally be at in his progression to this point. Double A is a big test for a 20 year old. Martinez struck out in 20.4 percent of his plate appearances last year. That was a slight bump from the 19.0 percent he’d produced at Advanced-A the year before. But have I mentioned yet that Martinez is four years ahead of the average prospect? The elderly group of 24.4 year olds in the Eastern League struck out 19.9 percent on average. The guys back at Advanced-A where Martinez played last year struck out at 19.9 percent last year too.

He was about a percent better than average last year playing in a league three years older than him, and a half-percent worse than average this year playing in a league four years older than him. Four years. Four Years. FOUR YEARS!

But what about the long ball? We’re tired of gloves. What about his bat. Does he have a big bat? I bet it’s about 33 inches long and somewhere around 32 ounces, give or take a couple inches or ounces. He hit 10 home runs last year, and posted an ISO of .137. I’m not an expert on park factors in the Eastern League, but Martinez was in a three way tie for second on his team in home runs. He was behind a 25 year old, and was tied with a 23 year old, and a 27 year old. I hardly think that three players from a poor farm system’s Double A affiliate qualify as adequate qualitative measuring sticks, but still.

He wasn’t close to the league lead though. He was 46^th. Interestingly, Chih-Hsien Chiang was 7^th in the league despite limited time in the league, hitting 18 homers and 37 doubles in 358 plate appearances. He’s 23 years old.

I don’t know if Martinez will be a great MLB third baseman. I think he will be an MLB third baseman though. He’s got a chance to be pretty good. He’s on the right track so far. He’ll be interesting to watch this year, wherever he ends up in the Mariners system. I’d like to see him walk more, and see his glove improve, but there’s an outside shot that he makes his MLB debut this year. All of the aforementioned high-OPS Eastern Leaguers have.

This article was co-written by Alexis Brudnicki

Baseball is essentially a game of numbers. And after hitting numerous milestones, superseding many expectations and accumulating a list of firsts, the Brisbane Bandits are winners this season despite an early finish.

They had 22 home games and 23 on the road for the up to 24-man roster. Narrowly missing out on a playoff position, the Bandits were supported by a team of dedicated coaching staff, round-the-clock volunteers (more than 30 throughout the season) and an endless array of supportive families, friends and fanatical Queensland sport goers.

Nine is the number of games Brisbane took wins from in the first half of the season, though after a slow start, the team came together and ended up finishing strong. The latter half of the season was a source of pride for Bandits General Manager Paul Gonzalez.

“The highlight of the season for me was the continued improvements this organisation made both on and off the playing field,” Gonzalez said. “We won 11 of 20 games in the back end after the departure of our Japanese imports. It was a true test for our coaching staff, and with the support of our local Brisbane clubs the Bandits fought to the very end.”

Manager Kevin Jordan shares Gonzo’s sentiment over the Bandits finish to the year, and has also acknowledged the impact that the local players had on the line up, stepping up to the plate when called upon. The additions to the team complimented the strengths of their other teammates, and helping the whole club makes strides for improvement.

“The second half of the year was probably the best highlight for us as a team,” Jordan said. “I think that probably getting some of the younger guys like [Andrew] Campbell in and getting them some consistent playing time helped. I think guys that started with us earlier, players like [Matt Roxburgh], got more comfortable. Having [Sean] Jarrett in the starting rotation helped us a lot, and guys like Rhys Niit, who hadn’t been with us early in the year. I could go on and on, there are so many guys that stepped up, that either were there in the first half and got better in the second half. I think we just gelled as a team more after the break.”

Brisbane’s season kicked off with a ‘Moneyball’ film launch, sponsored by Major League Baseball, uniting the players and supporters towards the one goal of having a season to remember. Under the guidance of MLB, several local companies including Alderley Hire, Ready Towing, Subway, Ii Naa Japanese Food and Fielder’s Choice pledged their support to the Bandits and the ABL for the entirety of the season.

Four highly anticipated Japanese imports arrived in Brisbane in late October, courtesy of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League. At the same time, star pitcher Alex Maestri made the trip from Italy. Maestri stayed out the season to the very end, becoming Brisbane’s ace along the way and becoming a fan favourite from the start.

American arms Jarrett and Jon Durket slotted into the bullpen nicely for the Bandits, as did Andrew Marck from our nation’s neighbour New Zealand. With plenty of Aussie talent on the roster, and a number of players returning after the ABL’s inaugural season, team captain Brad Dutton felt the Bandits made strides over last year.

“The group of guys on the team were a year older,” Dutton said of the biggest difference between the first season and the second. “They knew what to expect of the season and of each other. As a group we have become closer, and the new faces like Maestri came into our team and bonded right from the start. Our coaching staff was great, with KJ bringing his knowledge of the game and understanding what the players were going through, and helping us out and having fun on the field. At the end of the day it is a game.”

While the role of the manager is often overlooked and undervalued when giving credit to a baseball team, Jordan made a huge impact on his players and also on the organisation as a whole.

“We improved this year because the guys truly believed that they could compete in the league,” the Bandits GM said. “This is a true credit to the leadership of Kevin Jordan and his coaching staff and the team leadership of our captains [Dutton, Josh Roberts and Simon Morriss].”

Coming from the first base coach side of things and moving into the role of the skipper, Jordan learned firsthand how different the game can be from a new perspective, and how tough it is from the manager’s seat on the bench.

“I probably took the losses a lot harder,” the first-year skipper said. “More than the year before when I was coaching first base, because I was actively involved in every aspect of the game outside of playing.

“You want to win every day. So when you don’t, it’s tough because you prepare the team to win, not just to play the game. It’s a lot of going back and re-evaluating things you could have done differently in the game when you do have those losses, whereas you don’t have that as much when you have the wins because usually that’s when things go the way you want them to. When you lose it’s more of a learning process where you try to figure out if there’s something you could have done different in the game to have a different outcome.”

Including Jordan, several familiar faces returned for a second season this time around, Dutton and Morriss leading the team with always-consistent slugger Roberts dropping football to pick up a bat. Wade Dutton was a standout on defence and David Sutherland made vast improvements on already great numbers last year.

With a busy 45-game schedule, the Bandits still found time for goodwill. Chris Mowday got mowed for the Queensland Cancer Council in November and the Reds lent a hand to raise funds for the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital during the Ballpark Buster. Volunteer Dan Parker also raised funds for cancer with a haircut of his own.

New to the league this year, the ABL All-Star Game saw Brisbane’s top players plucked for both sides of the competition. Justin ‘Bobby’ Erasmus and Roberts represented the Aussie contingent, while Maestri, Yohei Yanagawa, Ayatsugu Yamashita and Kenta Imamiya joined Team World, making it difficult for Bandits fans to choose which side they were on.

Other television coverage for Bandits players was found on 31 Digital this season, as Brisbane launched ‘The Rookie’ in November. The show was hosted by ball enthusiast and Australian media personality Paul ‘Campo’ Campion. This made the Bandits the only team in the league to host their own TV show and it showcased the team to Australia.

The Bandits got a great start to the season at home, taking down the Sydney Blue Sox three games to one in their first series at the RNA Showgrounds. The consensus was that the back half of the season was more successful however. Fresh blood was introduced in December with local club ball talent Campbell, Roxburgh and Josh Warner.

Steven Greer took over in centre field at the tail end of the season, first called in for the series in Perth, and was a huge defensive asset to the club. The outfielder had one home run, two doubles and five RBI through 14 games to go with his glove.

The strides the team made with a variety of different line-ups was impressive, and so was the level of cohesiveness reached. Brisbane’s GM believes that the club will be in contention next season, with plenty for fans to anticipate.

“We have a lot to look forward to next year after a strong finish,” Gonzalez said. “I think on the field, with the talented youth that we have coming through the system and the addition of another year of maturity, we will be a strong contender for the Claxton Shield in 2013. We are hopeful to have some arms back next year and if we can land a big bat in the middle of our already dangerous line-up we show true promise after a successful 2011-12 year.”

Jordan shares Gonzo’s expectations for an even better outcome next year, but knows that there are some uncertainties for the upcoming season. He believes the team will certainly fare better if everyone can avoid injuries.

“A team that’s right on the verge of making playoffs, which is what we were this year,” Jordan said of what to look forward to for next season. “Obviously we don’t know what the roster’s going to be for next year.

“Health will play a big part because we, pretty much the whole year, we were able to have the same core position player guys who stayed healthy, as well as our pitchers. Alex [Maestri] from day one, he threw the whole year and he was healthy the whole time. A lot of times when teams aren’t successful it could be from a couple injuries from major players so I think if we stay healthy as a team then we have a real good shot next year of making the playoffs.”

Despite not knowing what the roster will look like next year, there are several players who already have plans to make their way back into the Brisbane black. Many are leaving Australia shortly to head to their American affiliations or independent ball teams, including Battaglia, Erasmus, Steven Chambers, Mitch Nilsson, Alan Schoenberger, Ryan Searle and Rory Rhodes. A couple are heading to Europe, with Daniel Lamb-Hunt going to Germany and Mowday to spend time in Amsterdam.

The core of the team will likely remain the same when another season approaches and as one of the team captains points out, next year is a new year.

“I’ve learnt that we have a team that can make the playoffs,” Brad Dutton said. “With another year under our belt, our team will be in contention to get to the end. If everyone still believes in the Bandits and we keep playing the game the right way, anything can happen next season.”

Asdrubal Cabrera image taken from Google Images

There just has to be a big bat out there somewhere. At least that’s what the Indians keep thinking. According to press conferences from various front office personnel over the past week, the team claims they have achieved all of the offseason goals they set for themselves except for one: finding a big bat to add to the lineup.

One of the goals that were cited in these discussions was that they needed more depth in many areas on the team. They recently made a move to add some depth when they dealt for Russ Canzler with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Canzler was named MVP of the International League (AAA) last year after he played in 131 games during which he started at four different positions. Among his accomplishments, were leading the league in slugging percentage and doubles. Overall, he batted .314 with 18 homeruns and produced 83 RBIs on the season.

The Indians also recently came to terms with left handed reliever Rafael Perez on a one year contract worth $2.005 million. The contract allowed the team to avoid going to arbitration over Perez’s 2012 salary. Perez played his fifth full season with the Tribe in 2011 when he went 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 71 appearances.

Another move the Indians recently made was to sign additional first basemen to compete with Canzler and Matt LaPorta for the first base job in spring training. The team may have found their man in Casey Kotchman who they inked to a one year deal worth $3 million.

Kotchman has played for five different teams during his eight year major league career and has been a consistent hitter, posting a career average of .268 with 59 career homeruns. While he may not have the strongest bat for a first baseman in the league, his fielding percentage of .998 is the highest in Major League history when compared to all first basemen who have at least 700 games in that position.

The last player the Indians have to agree to terms with in order to avoid arbitration is All Star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. Recent reports state that the Tribe and Cabrera are not only in talks to avoid arbitration, but are also working on a longer term extension that would seemingly keep Cabrera in Cleveland for most of his prime. Cabrera, who recently won Athlete of the Year at the Cleveland Sports Awards, was no doubt the most exciting player to watch for the Tribe last year.

To follow-up on news reported in last month’s edition of Indians reflections, Tribe pitcher Fausto Carmona, legally known as Roberto Hernendez Heredia, seems no closer to rejoining the team. The Tribe does not currently have to pay Carmona any of the $7 million from the contract he was under primarily because it now isn’t a legally binding contract due to the incorrect name and date of birth. The Indians still hold the rights to Carmona and have examined what their options are if and when the pitcher is cleared to join them.

The Indians recently completed a tour around Northeast Ohio during which manager Manny Acta and four or five of his players would hold a type of press conference in the local malls for fans to have a chance to ask questions and get autographs. Despite the fact that the Indians did not finish strong last season, Tribe fans still came out in droves to support their home team, many able to walk away with autographs from those who they believe to be the future of the organization and who may take them to the promise land of the playoffs.

There are certainly still some moves to make and players to sign to the famous but inevitable Minor League contract with a Spring Training invite, but many of the Tribe’s brass feel confident they currently have a team that can compete for a Central Division title. Spring Training games officially start for the Tribe on Saturday March 3 when they face off against their interstate rival, the Cincinnati Reds.

Leading the Brisbane Bandits and one half of the ‘Bash Brothers’,  29-year-old second baseman Brad Dutton takes five minutes to talk family, the Cubs and playing for Australia…

You have been playing baseball from a very young age – what does the game mean to you?

I’ve been playing baseball since I was five, it means everything to me.  It’s been in mine and my family all my life – I just love the game.

As a youngster watching the Bandits play, who was the player you looked up to the most and why?

Steven Hinton, the Bandits shortstop – my favorite position growing up and the one position I wanted to play most.

As the Captain of the Bandits, is it hard to motivate the import players who may not know your background as extensively as the local boys?

I think the import guys see how passionate and hard we play this game and they take this in before they take the field.  I guess if they don’t play the game the right way, the way Brisbane plays the game then they’ll know about it!

When you, Wade and your Dad Peter get together – is it girls in the kitchen and blokes around the BBQ talking baseball, baseball and more baseball?

Basically the whole family talks about baseball, we all talk about the game that night, or a pitch that me or Wade got a hit off, stuck out on.  Our Dad has always given us advice on our game that he loves.

Which ball club do you follow in the USA and why?

The Cubs! The reason I follow them because I lived in Chicago for four and a half years, my friends followed them, so I started watching them and now they are my favorite team.

Is it bloody good fun to have your brother playing in the infield with you?

Wade and I have fun on the field; we talk about the game a lot or the pitchers, or just give each a hard time.

Best part of playing ball in the United States?

Meeting new and excited people, playing in different ball parks, proving that you can play the American game with and against Yanks.

Is there fierce competition between you and your brother off the field?

Just a little bit…anything from ping pong to cricket we will have a go at.  It gets pretty fiery towards the end.

What is your greatest off-field victory over brother Wade?

Greatest?  Not sure, but I did beat him in golf two weeks ago.  Killed him, really.

In 2006 you won the coveted Helms award in the Claxton Shield competition.  As a Bandit fan growing up, that must have been a special moment for you?

It was, but at the time it didn’t really sink in.  Now, looking back at all the people who have won that award I’m pretty proud that I have my name on that.

What is the crappiest baseball diamond you have ever played on?

In my junior college days, there were a few crappy fields, they were covered in rocks, no dugouts and this was in America – I was surprised.

You have represented Australia before – how hard is it to get the dirt stains out of those all-white uniforms??

When you make Australia people wash your uniforms for you (Laughs)

What is your favorite road ballpark to visit in Australia and why?

Canberra Calvary’s Narrabundah ballpark has the best surface to play on this season.

Who would join your dream baseball roundtable and why? (i.e If you could sit around at dinner talking baseball with 4 major leaguers or ABL guys, who would you invite?)

Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter, Ian Kinsler and Ty Cobb.  Larkin, Jeter and Kinsler because they are infielders and Cobb because of how tough he was and the stories he would have.

What makes you tick? (i.e your motivation to do what you do)

Just being the best I can, for the longest I can and making sure my team achieves its goals.

 Complete this sentence. When I am extremely hungry I just have to have……………

Eat everything and anything.

Toughest part of playing in the ABL?

For me it’s seeing new guys (pitchers) on different teams that you’ve never faced before, you don’t know what to expect.  With all the Australian guys you already know their pitching style.

Which one of your Bandit team mates would you least want to room with and why?

Wade, because I see enough of him as it is!  It’s good to get to know the other guys on the team, on the road is good chance to do this outside of baseball.

Finally, how do you stop the Perth Heat? 

By scoring more runs than them.

Phillies LF Raul Ibanez

With the lack of interest the New York Mets have in upgrading their team this offseason, the media and those who blog tend to overanalyze every move they make as well as every player the team is rumored to have interest in. If this was a prior- more active- offseason, most of the discussions Mets fans have had over the past couple of weeks would probably not exist. So now we have gotten complete breakdowns of Mark Tuiasosopo, Rob Johnson and Jeremy Hefner (which were all well done, by the way) simply because Mets fans have nothing better to talk about.
The latest headline grabbing news involves the Mets search for a fourth outfielder. It started with their effort to lowball Cody Ross, who signed with the Red Sox. Now reports say the team has interest in free agents Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Kosuke Fukudome and Rick Ankiel. Of course, the most logical fit is Ankiel, who can play all three OF positions and is known to be a good defensive outfielder. He is also the most affordable and may be had for as little as a minor league contract. Fukadome may be the next choice, but he is not known to be as good of a defender.

Image via Wikipedia

In addition to the probability that Damon and Ibanez are out of the Mets price range, it is fair to question how much of a fit each one would be (not a fit like Cody Ross, which was a reaction from the Mets after Ross was about to take a better contract). Damon is pretty much a designated hitter at this stage of his career. He played little outfield at all last season, playing in just 16 games in left field for the Tampa Bay Rays. If Damon was added, he could be asked to make a return to CF, which he hasn’t played in a couple of years. It’s a wonder if his return to the outfield would affect his offensive production which is still decent (.261, 16, 73 in 2011).
Ibanez is coming off a three year contract he signed with the Phillies and has driven in 80+ runs in each of the last seven years. It should get him a contract where he can play every day, especially since he is still a decent outfielder. Ibanez may be looking for regular playing time, something the Mets cannot guarantee. He would get to play more than expected, though.
The problem is spots are drying up and the chance of Ibanez ($12,166,666) or Damon ($5.25 million) getting anywhere near what they got last year is not looking good. Should the Mets make them an offer? Even if it is the patented Sandy Alderson contract offer of 1 year and $1 million (which he should trademark, by the way)? I think they should. I know its unlikely Damon or Ibanez would sign for that little, but perhaps some incentives can be thrown in. At the very least, the offers would be weighed against some of the other teams. I think it’s worth a try.

Image via Wikipedia

If it fails, which it probably will, they can focus on Fukudome and Ankiel, who will be more attainable. Though Fukudome is coming off a 4 year, $48 million deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs (making $14.5 million in 2011), he is expected to get less of a deal than Ibanez and Damon are expected to get. He is weighing options of maybe going back to Japan against the pay cut he is expected to take.
Damon and Ibanez going elsewhere and Fukudome going back to Japan will lead the Mets to Ankiel, where they were expecting to be all along. I personally think it’s at least worth a try to get the others. Particularly with Damon and Ibanez, they can be traded midseason if necessary. We all understand the unlikeliness that either would sign, so if either would, I say do it. This team can use some buzz, like I suggested with Manny Ramirez. There is nothing wrong with offering what the team is willing to pay. If they take it, great, if not, it’s no big deal.

Photo taken from Google Images

Hello all, my name is Jimmy Moberg and I will be giving you a monthly update from a fans perspective this season on the Minnesota Twins. I will air my frustrations and joy at the decisions of the Twins and the way that they are playing. There will also be some insights, I am sure, on the happenings of the rest of the league mixed in. Now on the off-season recap and look at Spring Training, hope you enjoy.

This has been one of the more daunting off-seasons that I remember as a Twins fan. Some big names that were due new contracts or else they were going to leave. Injury concerns to other stars. Development tracking on prospects and front office moves that always happen. All of that was expected.

Image by Neal Portnoy of www.idrawpeople.com

Now for what all actually did happen:

- Terry Ryan in and Bill Smith out as GM

- Cuddyer, Kubel, Nathan, and Mijares gone to Free Agency

- Slowey traded for a prospect/internal cap space

- Arrival of Zumaya, Willingham, Carroll, and Marquis among others

- Mauer announcing full health and Morneau starting “baseball activites”

- Sano and Hicks make preseason top prospect lists

With a 63-99 final record last season, most Twins fans where left wondering what happened to their team. One large part of the answer was injuries. Mauer played the fewest games since 2004, his first year in MLB, with just 82 and that was after what most fans called a disappointing 2010 season. Morneau missed over half of his second consecutive season with concussion symptoms. Denard Span missed over half of the season also with a myriad of injuries that included a concussion that ended 2011 early for him. The brand new big money import 2B/SS Nishioka missed a large chunk of games early because of a broken leg. Our starting rotation seemed to have a separate rotation of their own in response to further injuries and there was no consensus on the closer role because of Joe Nathan’s recovery from Tommy John’s Surgery. With all of that listed in front of me, I’m kind of surprised that the Twins stayed relevant to the All-Star break before finishing with almost 100 losses.

To say that all of the woes of last season were resulting from injuries is just wrong. Most fans have noticed a marked change in the Twins’ front office strategy for player personnel since moving into Target Field. Now don’t get me wrong, I have been screaming for years to have the organization start spending money on players, but the way that it happened is firmly what I believe lead to bringing Terry Ryan back as the General Manager. Nothing against Bill Smith but $14.3M for an unproven foreign player and then make him switch positions. Who really thought that was a good idea? I like Nishi, but at 2B where he is used to playing and seeing the field. I did like the move of locking Mauer up to a long-term contract but you have to still allow some space for spending on other areas of the team like pitching. What used to be a strength for the Twins was a huge liability all last season with our pitching and defense severely lacking.

Enough about last year that caused the fans to start looking towards “Next Season” for the first time since ‘07. Time to prepare for this season and look towards the future. The Twins have made some moves to replace the loss of some long time fan favorites, some I like and others are head scratchers. The Jamey Carroll pick up should help Gardenhire to move Nishi back to his preferred 2B position and give us a go to everyday double play combo. Jason Marquis should help a rotation that right now looks like Pavano and Liriano, but after that you have Diamond (who has to stay with the Twins because he was a Rule 5 pick), Baker, Blackburn, and Duensing. Zumaya should be great in the setup role if he can return from his broken elbow. Doumit should help Mauer stay healthy and provide a capable replacement in case of injury. Lastly Willingham should prove to be able to replace Cuddy in right but not his versatility.

Here is what positional lineup of how I see the Twins starting this year if all are healthy:

C - Joe Mauer

1B- Justin Morneau

2B- Tsuyoshi Nishioka

SS- Jamey Carroll

3B- Danny Valencia

LF- Denard Span

CF- Ben Revere

RF- Josh Willingham

DH- Chris Parmalee

Starting Pitchers

Carl Pavano

Francisco Liriano

Scott Baker

Scott Diamond

Nick Blackburn

Set Up Man - Joel Zumaya

Closer - Matt Capps

Some of the guys on the bench will be Rene Tosoni, Ryan Doumit, Sean Burroughs and 2 out of Casilla/Tolbert/Plouffe/Hughes. Duensing and Marquis will be the first looks if any starters get hurt or just can’t get the job done. Parmalee could start at 1B if Morneau isn’t ready in time or needs a day off and be one of the big pinch hitters with Burroughs.

This season I am optimistic because frankly the Twins cannot get much worse than they were last year. With the M & M boys getting healthy again and with Terry Ryan back as GM to renew the focus on developing talent, I see improvement. I just don’t see us getting back to the playoffs unless Detroit is nailed with injuries we had last year (already lost Victor Martinez for the year). I do see the Twins competing for the #2 spot in the Central again. The dynamic could change in the division any year though because the Royals keep improving, the Indians seem to be making strides and Chicago has to get used to a new manager after the departure of Ozzie to Miami.

Don’t agree, fully agree or just some things to point out to me, just let me know. I welcome all comments.

Image via Wikipedia

The recent trade of Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners to the New York Yankees has created a lot of buzz, both in baseball circles and fantasy baseball debates. In regard to fantasy value, many people have stated that Pineda’s value immediately increases with his trade from the lowly Mariners to the mighty Bronx Bombers. Why is this? Simply because he will win more games. Or so the theory goes.

It got me thinking. Since Wins are an entire category in most fantasy baseball leagues, there is always the chance that pitchers will get over-valued simply because they play for good teams (and thus should have the opportunity to win more games). I don’t like chasing Wins. Never have. Never will. The deciding factors which come into play when determining if a starting pitcher will be awarded a Win are far too diverse and reliant upon external factors to ever be predicted accurately.

A talented pitcher may throw for seven solid innings, surrendering only one earned run but if his team’s offense scores no runs, that pitcher is faced with a loss. Conversely, a pitcher may go six innings and give up seven earned runs but if his offense comes up big with eight runs of their own, that pitcher gets a cheap +1 in the Win category.

So, what’s the bottom line? It is simply too unpredictable to go chasing Wins in fantasy baseball. By looking at other factors, you will be much better served.

Going back to the example of Pineda, he is moving from one of baseball’s worst teams to one of the best. As such, it makes sense to predict that he will naturally be in line to see an increase in his Win total and as such, his fantasy value is on the rise. However, pitching in the American League East is much more treacherous than pitching in the American League West so Pineda may be in line to see some regression in his outlying statistics such as ERA and WHIP. Is this risk worth the chance of an extra Win or two over the course of 30 starts? Toronto, Tampa Bay and Boston all scored significantly more runs than the L.A. Angels or Oakland Athletics in 2011.

A better strategy would be to draft and fill your fantasy baseball roster with pitchers who display extraordinary skills, regardless of the uniform they wear. Pitchers like Madison Bumgarner (SF), Cory Luebke (SD),Brandon McCarthy (OAK) and Scott Baker (MIN) all have shown talent and promising peripheral statistics but are often undervalued by your fellow fantasy owners because the teams they play for don’t pile up the wins.

By choosing pitchers from winning teams, you may give yourself an opportunity to be in a position to pick up a few extra Wins. However, by focusing on one category too strongly, you may just overlook pitchers who can help you in several other categories.

In fantasy baseball, the only Wins you should be chasing are those against your league opponents.

Adam Wainwright photo taken from Zimbio

A few weeks ago Chris McBrien offered a great list of fantasy baseball sleepers, as well as an excellent explanation of their role on your team for the 2012 season. However, as we all know, you can never be too prepared for your fantasy baseball draft! With that said, I have decided to dive in a little deeper into the theoretical sleeper pool to find some of the deep sleepers. Adam Wainwright is certainly a player who may be undervalued entering this season and deemed a sleeper, but he’s also a household name who will be drafted in the upper half of most drafts. Drafting sleepers like Adam Wainwright can help you win your league, but I’m interested in finding the players you will grab with the last picks in your draft that have your league-mates scratching their heads while you cheer in victory.

So, without further ado, here is my list of deep sleepers at catcher and the infield for the American and National League.

Please note that my projections are assuming regular playing time for each player and that each prediction should be seen as more of a baseline rather than a ceiling.

AL: Salvator Perez – Kansas City Royals. In his 39 game cup of coffee in 2011, Salvador Perez impressed hitting .331 with 3 HR and 21 RBI, and he’ll still only be 21 years old when the 2012 season starts! His average was aided by an unsustainable .362 BABIP and he won’t be hitting 30 HRs anytime soon (or ever), but realistically how many catchers actually will? Even with tempered expectations, Perez should be able to hit above .280 with 10 HRs in an underrated lineup, which is pretty solid production considering you can draft him in the late rounds after everyone else has secured their catching slot.  Young players like Perez, especially at catcher can bust (I’m looking at you, Matt Wieters circa 2010), but with the minimal risk it would take to draft Perez, he’s certainly a solid sleeper to keep in mind.

Projection: .285/10/60/60/1

NL: Devin Mesoraco – Cincinnati Reds. When the Reds let catcher Ramon Hernandez leave via free agency this year they were left with Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco as replacements. Ryan Hanigan may have the “experience” that an old-school (aka stubborn) manager like Dusty Baker may prefer, but all bets are on the Reds letting Mesoraco, one of their top prospects, take the reins as the starter. Mesoraco’s power has slowed down as he has moved up the ranks in the minors, but he has always displayed a solid eye at the plate, and given Cincinnati’s friendly ball park and above average lineup, Mesoraco can certainly provide a lot of value at catcher for your fantasy team at a pick with little to no risk.

Projection: .260/18/65/65/2

Other potential sleepers: J.P. Arencibia, Chris Iannetta and Wilson Ramos.

AL: Kendrys Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (I still can’t believe this is their actual team name). The last time Kendrys Morales was playing he was having a successful follow-up to his breakout campaign, proving he wasn’t a fluke. However, that was in 2010 and Morales unfortunately hasn’t seen the field since. The addition of Pujols to the Angels lineup creates a potential logjam in the Angels lineup with Morales, Bobby Abreu, Mark Trumbo, Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter all sharing time for OF/DH spots, but if Morales is healthy he is the best of the bunch. Now, that is a very, very big if, but wouldn’t you rather roll the dice with Morales over a “proven” (aka boring) guy like James Loney? I wouldn’t recommend drafting Morales as your starting first basemen (not a knock against his ability, more his fragility) but at corner infield, utility or as a backup, Morales could be special.

Projection: .285/24/70/80/1

NL: Anthony Rizzo –  Chicago Cubs. Last offseason the San Diego Padres acquired Anthony Rizzo in a package in return for former Padre-great Adrian Gonzalez. This offseason, the Padres acquired another young first basemen in Yonder Alonso, which made Anthony Rizzo expandable leading to him being traded to the Chicago Cubs. Rizzo certainly isn’t complaining as he couldn’t ask for a better change of scenery, leaving the pitching paradise of Petco (which suppressed his pull-heavy power) to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Rizzo struggled during his brief time in the majors in 2011, batting .141 in 153 at bats, but a large part of that was due to bad luck (.210 BABIP, regression is coming!). Also, Rizzo maintained an excellent eye at the plate throughout his struggles (13.7 BB%) which is a promising sign for his future. Rizzo won’t win the batting title this year, but if he’s playing every day, Rizzo could provide Carlos Pena-type production at a fraction of the cost.

Projection: .240/25/65/75/2

Other potential sleepers: Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Belt and Kyle Blanks.

AL: Mike Aviles – Boston Red Sox. Dustin Pedroia isn’t going anywhere, but Mike Aviles will be eligible at 2b this season and should be at least splitting the starting shortstop duties for the Red Sox with Nick Punto. Playing time might be an issue for Aviles, but at worst he’s a fantastic platoon option for the Red Sox and your fantasy team. Plus, how long will the Sox trot out Nick Punto if he’s batting .220? For his career, Aviles is a .290 hitter and has some pop (.170 ISO) against lefties, which is better than most second basemen. Aviles shouldn’t hurt you if you find out there are no other second basemen at the end of your draft, and he doubles as an excellent bench/rotation guy to play against favorable matchups.

Projection: .270/9/45/55/12

NL: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros. Altuve is the classic case of a player’s fantasy value being greater than his real-life value, and often that is a formula for a sleeper. Altuve has never been a top prospect but he’s always hit for a solid average and stolen a few bases at every stop in the minor leagues and that shouldn’t necessarily change in the majors. Although the Astros have one of the weaker lineups in the league, everyone benefits from batting near the top of the lineup and Altuve should be batting in the #2 slot, providing your fantasy team with plenty of opportunities to score runs and steal bases. Altuve’s skill set limits his ceiling, but he has a high floor, and you can certainly do worse at your 2b or MI slot. Let your league mates draft Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill, hoping to turn back the clocks, while you wait and draft Jose Altuve in the later rounds.

Projection: .285/5/75/50/20

Other potential sleepers: Sean Rodriguez, Johnny Giavotella and Brian Roberts (if he can play)

AL: Edwin Encarnacion- Toronto Blue Jays. Take a second and look at Encarnacion’s stats last year: .270, 17 HR , 55 RBI, 70 Runs, and 8 SB. Pretty good, right? That’s a better year than Kevin Youklis, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman had in 2011. I wouldn’t pencil in Encarnacion to have better numbers than those players in 2012 (well maybe Youklis), but he should achieve similar numbers at a discounted price, or several rounds later.

Projection:.260/21/75/70/6

NL: Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s hard to say it’s make or break time for any prospect nowadays considering Jose Bautista is now one of the better players in the league and Alex Gordon had a breakout last year, but at the very least, it’s an important year for Alvarez. Honestly, none of the “signs” are promising as Alvarez wasn’t even able to limit his strikeouts during his demotion to the minors last year (28.4 %). However, the pedigree is still there (former top prospect), he’s only 24 years old and in just 2010 Alvarez looked like a budding star. Last year Alvarez entered the season out of shape and it hurt him the entire year so if he starts off 2012 with a dud, don’t be afraid to cut your losses early. But late in the draft there aren’t many players who could hit 30-35 homers, don’t let a guy like Alvarez pass for your 2nd middle infielder or backup infielder.

Projection: .250/22/75/65/2

Other potential sleepers: Brent Morel, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall

AL: Erick Aybar – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (again, really?).  Question: How many SS hit 10 home runs and stole 30 bases? Answer: Two, Jimmy Rollins and Erick Aybar. That’s it. Erick Aybar has been a decent SS option for a few years now, but really had a break out year last year and nobody really noticed. I suppose that wouldn’t make him a sleeper for this year, but it’s so surprising how little love Aybar is getting at such a weak position that I had to put him on the list. Expecting a repeat breakout performance may be too much, but Aybar will steal 25-30 bases and hold his own in all the other categories. When your competition is picking up Ryan Theriot and Alex Gonzalez you’ll be happy with who you have.

Projection: .282/9/45/80/27

NL: Jed Lowrie – Houston Astros. The Astros may be the worst team in baseball, but their middle infield is full of sleepers! Jed Lowrie has one problem, he’s never been able to stay healthy for a full season and it eventually lead to his departure from Boston to Houston. It’s definitely a big concern (injury risk) and there isn’t necessarily any reason why it would vanish while he’s in Houston, but you should get solid production out of Lowrie when he’s healthy and when he’s hurt you get the added value of his replacement. At the very least, Lowrie should crush left-handed pitching (.326 11 HR, 58 RBI in 279 ABs in his career). Bottom line: If he can improve against righties in the weaker league and stay on the field, you could be looking at a top 10 shortstop.

Projection: .280/14/60/60/3

Other potential sleepers: Zack Cosart, Eduardo Nunez (if/when Alex Rodriguez gets hurt) and Ruben Tejada

Photo taken from Zimbio via Google Images

New Red Sox skipper Bobby Valentine has gone on the record as saying that adding a starting pitcher isn’t at the top of his priority list.  He thinks they have plenty of arms in the mix when they get to Ft. Myers in three weeks, so for right now, it’s not at the top of his wish list.

Um, excuse me, Mr. Valentine, but if not now, when?

While everyone is focusing on the team’s epic September collapse, let’s not also forget the team’s dreadful start to 2011: 2-11.  It started with an opening-series sweep at the hands of the Rangers.  Fine, I’ll grant you, they were the defending AL champions and just happened to be on their way to heading right back to the World Series.  I get it, one of the best teams in the league knocked ‘em around a little.  But then you get to Cleveland and get swept?  Come on.

The Red Sox scored a total of 11 runs in those first six games while their opponents took extra BP and scored 38.  That kicked off a month that ended in an 11-15 record.  Clearly the traditional cliché of a marathon versus a sprint applies, as anyone who watched game 162 with baited breath will tell you.  It simply cannot be understated how important it will be for this 2012 team to get off to a good start.

Which brings us back to the issue of the starting pitching staff.  This year’s team features not a single pitcher who reached the 200-inning plateau in 2011.   While Josh Beckett and Jon Lester each had fine seasons (September struggles not withstanding), neither of them reached that critical marker.  Add to that the losses of John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka to Tommy John surgery.  Then add to that the Clay Buchholz injury watch.  Then add to that the unknown of Daniel Bard pitching as a starter instead of as a lights-out setup man.  Do you see where this is going?

The Red Sox finished with 90 wins last year, a number that for all intents and purposes should have assured them a playoff spot (stay tuned for the introduction of the second wild card this year).  The problem is all intents and purposes get checked at the door to the AL East.

Image via Wikipedia

The Yankees mixed and matched all season until they found a mix that clinched the division.  Then in the offseason they’ve added an underrated workhorse in Hiroki Kuroda, wresting him away from possibly playing in Boston, and traded for an act on the rise in Michael Pineda.

The Rays, who did what the Red Sox couldn’t on September 28^th last year to claim the Wild Card, have arguably the best pitching staff in the American League in David Price, James Shields, rookie phenom Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Wade Davis.  They didn’t stand pat either, bringing in a couple lefty bats in Carlos Pena and Luke Scott, both with plenty of experience in the AL East, to help back that staff.

So now the ball is in the Red Sox’ court.  They had a shot to get Kuroda and missed.  Now they’re in supposed conversations with Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson.  One guy gets hurt (meaning he makes your bad back look like a stubbed toe), the other guy has played for six teams in eight years.  They simply don’t know what to expect from three-fifths of their rotation, whether it’s injury concerns or simply not knowing who will take the ball the next day.  They’re taking it down to the likes of Carlos Silva, Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Felix Doubront, Justin Germano, Clayton Mortenson, and last year’s pitching hero, Alfredo Aceves.  Leaves you feeling all warm and tingly inside, doesn’t it?

So it’s time to ask again: if not now, then when?