Introduction

This article is a follow up to the one published here on Monday, December 12th. In this article I will delve in more detail into the Red Sox current Pitching situation. Here we will break things down by talking about the current list of injured pitchers and the effect that has on the team, the 2011 pitchers that are currently free agents, the rotation, the bullpen, pitchers that were not on the Red Sox in 2011 that are now free agents & pitchers that might be available via trade.

The Injuries

Almost like a team plague, Tommy John Surgery seems to have hit the Red Sox like a virus over the past two years. First, I believe, there was Junici Tazawa who had returned late last season from his surgery & since his there have been three more players that have succumbed to it…

SP Rich Hill – Recovering from Tommy John surgery (on June 9th) and was recently non-tendered. His recovery will probably result in him being out until after the start of 2012, but with Boston having so many lefties under team control (Morales, Doubront and Miller) without the ability (options) to sent them to Pawtucket (AAA), they had to release him. Although, if one of those guys were involved in a possible trade, that would open the door up to the Red Sox re-signing him. I personally think he’s be a better option for them than two of them if not all three.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka - will miss at least half of the 2012 season due to recovery from his Tommy John surgery. It is hoped that his return will be the equivalent of a trade deadline acquisition as he might be back sometime after the All Star game. Although, given the tendency of pitchers returning from this procedure having control problems coupled with Dice-K’s insistence on nibbling around the plate sounds like a recipe for some scary innings of work (hopefully the Red Sox can keep him in AAA Pawtucket during that awkward time is his rehab). I don’t see him being a reliable option at the major league level until the All Star break at the earliest.

Picture of John Lackey taken by Tony Molica

SP John Lackey - He is the last pitcher to succumb to this injury as of late and because he didn’t address this injury until after the 2011 season, he will miss all of 2012. On the bright side, it looks like the injury that made this procedure a necessity was directly related to Lackey’s poor 2011 performance (it seems as if he may have pitched with this injury most of the season knowing that he couldn’t hurt himself further), one that was the worst by any Red Sox starting pitcher in the team’s storied history for a full season.  Some have also reported that he stayed off the DL for the team’s sake given the state of the staff and took one for the team so to speak. So, maybe he will look more like the pitcher we saw with the Angels in 2013!

Former Red Sox Pitchers that are now Free Agents
RP Trever Miller (age: 38) - Miller only pitched in 2 innings for the Red Sox (in 3 outings) while recording 1K without giving up a hit, a walk or a run. In all of 2011 between the Blue Jays, Cardinals and the Red Sox he only pitched in 21.1 innings over 48 outings and had an 0-1 record with 1 SV 3 blown saves and 5 holds, while maintaining a 3.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

RP Dan Wheeler (age: 34) - Wheeler is a Type B free agent. He declined the Red Sox offer of arbitration. He was on and off the DL during the 2011 season posting a line of 2-2 with 4 Holds, 0 blown saves, 39 K, 1.11 WHIP, 4.38 ERA in 49.1 IP. For his career he boasts a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 43 saves, a 25-43 record with 553K in 628.1 IP.

SP Tim Wakefield (age: 45) - With Wakefield’s reoccurring back problems over the past few years and his painful-to-watch attempt to get his 200th victory last year, it is probably only a 50/50 chance at best that the Red Sox re-sign him for the 2012 season. And the latest news is that Theo (I mean Jed Hoyer) may seek to sign Wakefield (and possibly even Varitek) with the Cubs. 2011 saw Wakefield go 7-8 with 93Ks, a 1.36 WHIP, .267 BAA and a 5.12 ERA in 154.2 innings pitched with 1 CG in only 23 starts (10 relief appearances) while giving up a whopping 25 HRs. In contrast to those numbers, he has a career average of a 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (so that didn’t change) with 2156 Ks in 3226.2 innings pitched over 463 starts (164 relief appearances) with 33 CGs with 6 of those being shutouts. Bottom line: I’d bring him back even if it was just for insurance. He’s a great team player, can both start and pitch in the bullpen and can eat up innings. On top of all of that, when he gets going (if), he can string together a bunch of consecutive wins (if you have a catcher that can catch him and not many can).

The Rotation

Jon Lester - In my opinion Lester is the Ace of this staff! He has won 15 or more games in his last four seasons (19 in 2010) and 2012 should see him pitch in over 200 innings once again (he had only 191.2 IP last year, the first time under 200 in those same four seasons) and be in contention for the Cy Young Award once again with  also hitting the 200K mark again.

Josh Beckett - If Beckett has post another sub 3.00 ERA he might be in line to go head to head with Lester for that Cy Young Award, but he will more likely have an ERA under 4.00 and 190 or more Ks. Last year, for at least half of the season, he proved that he can still be a co-Ace on this staff and Bobby V might be the type of manager that can motivate him to do so once again, but his best years are behind him at this point, I’m affraid.

Clay Buchholz - I see Clay as being, realistically speaking, a solid number two pitcher on this staff with a performance that is in between his 2010 (.708 winning percentage) and 2011 (.667 winning percentage) seasons if he can stay healthy.

Daniel Bard – At first, I wasn’t sure how to take the news of Bard joining the rotation, but with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey I have to agree with it. I think Bard, if the opinion of Curt Young (Red Sox 2011 Pitching Coach) is accurate, is well suited to transfer into the rotation like the Rangers have done recently with CJ Wilson, Alexi Ogando, etc. Young mentions the addition of a newly mastered changeup to go with his fastball and slider as reasons that back a move to the rotation. I think he’ll do just fine and might end up in the pen three quarters of the way into the season due to the added workload after being a short reliever up until now.

Picture of Alfredo Aceves taken by Tony Molica

Alfredo Aceves - If no one besides one of the slew of low risk starters the Sox have signed to this point pans out, Alfredo should be the fifth starter (or at least the first guy out of the pen to spot start). His 2011 performance when called upon has earned him that right.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL: Tommy John Surgery) - Dice-K might just be the equivalent to a mid season aquisition when he returns from Tommy John surgery. With Bobby V at the helm, it just might be what the doctor ordered for Dice-K in his final months as a member of the Red Sox due to Bobby’s time spent managing in Japan. I expect the best performance we’ve seen up to this point upon his return if he is healthy enough post-surgery to accomplish it.

The Bullpen

Bobby Jenks - In December, Jenks has lower back surgery to remove bone fragments and less than a month later has had a second operation on his back and will probably miss the start of spring training. If he can stay healthy he would be a valuable 7th or 8th inning option along with Malanson; otherwise, he’s sure to be DFA’d or traded during the season.

Scott Atchison - Atchison has his best numbers in the following categories in 2011: ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.20), but his SO/9 were at a career low at 5.0. He also had very good command as seen with a BB/9 rate of 1.8 and he did not give up even one HR. I’d keep him, but would monitor his SO/9 and H/9 rates to see if they loose any more ground. If they do, I’d expect that to affect his ERA and WHIP numbers, too and if that happens I’d cut ties with him. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options). Due to the signing of OF Cody Ross, Atchison has been designated for assignment. In my most humble opinion, this should have been Albers. Sorry Matt!

Matt Albers - The only thing I like about Albers stat line for 2011 was his increase in SO/9 which was almost 3 points higher than his previous season high. What I don’t trust is a RP with a WHIP of 1.43, which sadly enough was his second best total in his career. I’ll see if there were any takers on him & try to get a decent prospect out of it. Maybe put him into a package to the Cubs in an attempt to land a better compensation deal for Theo.

Franklin Morales – His totals in Boston were his best since his rookie year of 2007. In Boston he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, a 2.82 SO/BB and a SO/9 of 8.6 second only to his 9.2 in 2009. That and the fact that he’s a lefty and only 25 years old tells me that he is a keeper. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Michael Bowden - If Bowden can continue to lower his H/9, ERA and WHIP as well as increase his SO/9 while he continues to adjust to pitching in relief, he might have his best year in a Red Sox uniform in 2012. But even if he does, it might not be enough unless it is more significant than his progress thus far seeing his WHIP was 1.50. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Junichi Tazawa - There’s not much to go on here so it all depends upon his efforts in spring training, but I don’t see a situation where he breaks camp with the big club. He’ll probably wind up in Pawtucket for some more seasoning of his game and see how he progresses as the season goes on. After all, he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Felix Doubront - Doubront’s numbers last year in Boston were not very good as can be seen over at Baseball-Reference.com and unless he can show signs of bouncing back in 2012, I would add him in with Albers and try to flip him to the Cubs in the Theo compensation deal. It’s time to cut bait on him or change the way they are using him (which may be the best route to travel if they cannot find a taker for him). The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Andrew Miller  - I don’t see where they can use him in Boston except in mop up duty unless he turns a corner in 2012 and starts living up to his potential. After all, he is just 26 years old. Just look at his numbers over at Baseball-Reference.com to see what I am talking about. His WHIP alone scares me away. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

RP Rich Hill - Was recently resigned to a minor league deal with the Red Sox that will pay him $750K if he makes it to Boston in 2012 after recovering from Tommy John surgery he had back in June 2011. I see him as a big part of the Red Sox bullpen if he can bounce back from the surgery.

Currently Available Free Agent Pitchers

SP’s

Rich Harden – I think they have gotten enough players like Harden already; therefore, I do not see them going after him, too! Although he can be dominant when healthy, but the problem is, lately, he rarely is…

Edwin Jackson - is going to cost too much for them to sign him this off season both in years and overall salary. He’d be a good number 4 or 5 starter though (much like Paul Maholm who was signed by the Cubs to an affordable one-year contract, darn you Theo!).

Roy Oswalt – On a one-year contract under $10M (probably around the $8M mark), I do that deal in a heart beat even if it means trading a few minor pieces to get it done! Come on Ben, sign him already!

Brandon Webb – He is damaged goods that I don’t think even the Red Sox would take a flyer on at this time. Let’s see what he can do on a one year contract for someone else before we jump to a final assessment on him for the long haul…

Chris Young – I still think that Young would be a good back end of the rotation kind of guy, but the question is…can he handle playing in Boston with the media frenzy and all? We may never know…the Sox may be done shopping for the rotation at this point.

RP’s

I have only listed the available arms I’d be interested in. If you would like to know my opinion on another name not listed here, please ask me in the comments below and I’ll get back to you ASAP!

Mike Gonzalez - If Gonzalez can get back to his 2009 form, he would be a nice lefty out of thre pen, but his ERA and K/9 are both trending in the wrong way, he is not a groundball pitcher and even his xFIP was over 3.7 which is a bit high for my taste for a bullpen arm.

Chad Qualls – My main concern with Qualls is the drop in his K/9 last year. He went from being over 7 and 8 (with a low of 7.47 in 2010) over the last four years, to a 5.21 in 2011. In fact, it has been dropping ever since it’s height in 2008 at 8.67. Although 2010 saw his ERA spike at 7.32, his xFIP was actually 3.72. Another bonus is that his groundball percentages have been 55% or more his whole career, which fits into the new GM’s mold for pitchers.

DFA List

SP Micah Owings – He’s coming off a year that saw him hit his best numbers in ERA (3.57), appearances (33, with 4 starts) and BABIP (.258) in the majors, but his xFIP was 4.51 (but even that was his best thus far in his career). I’d like to see him get his K/9 back up around 9.45 (2010 with the Reds). He can also be a long reliever, another spot start option or might be useful pitching in the 7th inning right in front of Melancon. A role he has not been in up to this point in his early career, but is something that could rejuvenate his career and allow him to regain those high K/9 numbers.

What I like most about his is his ability to be another right handed bat off the bench, something you don’t normally think about with a pitcher these days! Read this: in only 217 PA he has hit .286 with 27 R, 35 RBI, 9 HR, .313 OBP, .507 SLG a 106 wRC+, .222 ISO, .389 BABIP and holds a 3.8 WAR as a hitter. It’s almost like carrying an extra bench player! This move is a no brainer to me, especially when you consider that he only made around $423K last year.

Pitchers that Might be Available via Trade

If 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks sets AAA ablaze offensively and maintains his deffensive prowess, we might see Kevin Youkilis jettisoned out in a trade for one of these guys. If not, then a multi-player deal surrounding the likes of Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Matt Albers, Felix Dubront, Andrew Miller, Bobby Jenks or Michael Bowden (pick a few from this list, but there are others not mentioned that could be had) might pry one of these guys loose.

SP Matt Garza (Cubs) – Probably the least likeliest of trade possibilities, but it could happen. I just don’t think Theo and Jed would do it unless they were blown away (including Middlebrooks, Iglesias or Brittan) and I don’t see Cherrington doing that. The Cubs could use Youk, too.

SP Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) – I’m sort of luke-warm on Wandy…I just am not sold on him and I have no idea if we could handle the pressure cooker that is pitching in Boston. He also could be had on the cheap!

SP Brett Myers (Astros) – My least favorite choice. Myers is a poor mans Schilling and simply not good enough in my estimation, but could probably be had on the cheap.

SP – Tom Gorzelanny (Nationals) - Although I’d take Masterson or Garza ahead of him, Gorzelanny would work out well (if healthy) at the end of the rotation if he could handle the pressure in Boston. The deal that would net him wouldn’t be as costly either!

SP – Justin Masterson (Indians) – Probably my favorite choice on this list (which is admittedly short). I was disappointed to hear that he was a part of the Victor Martinez trade to begin with, although I would have never admitted to thinking he’d be this good as a starter. I always projected him as a long-to-short reliever. But after seeing what he’s doing in Cleveland, I’d be tickled pink to have him at the end of the Red Sox rotation! And…the Indians are looking to upgrade at 1B (Youk’s best position), too.

SP – Gavin Floyd (White Sox) - If the remaining free agent starting pitchers sign elsewhere or are asking for more (in terms of either years or dollars) than what the Red Sox are willing to shell out, then maybe the speculated trade for Floyd would be a nice option. The “other” Sox team has been either trading away players(Carlos Quentin) letting them walk (Buehrle) or signed to a long term contract (John Danks); making it difficult to understand what direction they are going in at the  present time. But seeing what the asked for in exchange for Quentin, Boston might be able to put a deal together either before the start of the season or by the trading deadline in July. I like this idea, but it would depend upon what they’d need to give up. The price might still be too high.

Hot Stove Season Transactions To Date

RP Mark Melancon - He was obtained via trade for INF Jed Lowrie and P Kyle Weiland. Melancon is primed to become a late inning arm that will be a big threat in either the 7th, 8th or 9th innings for Boston in 2012. He is young (will turn 27 during the season), comes inexpensive and will be under team control until after the 2016 season. He became the Astros closer after an injury to Brandon Lyon in May saving 20 in 25 opportunities over 74.1 innings (in 71 appearances) with an ERA of 2.78 and a 1.22 WHIP with 3 Holds. His other stats include a 7.99 K/9, .234 BAA and 2.54 K/BB. With the trade for Bailey, Melancon becomes the set up man for him taking over for Bard who will now be free to convert to the starting rotation.

Closer Andrew Bailey - He was obtained (along with OF Ryan Sweeney) via trade for OF Josh Reddick, 1B/3B Miles Head and P Raul Alcantara. Bailey, who is also 27 (like Melancon) is a two-time All Star as the A’s closer & will remain under team control until 2014.

Aaron Cook – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Cook, Silva and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Cook has only had 10+ wins twice in his career (16 in 2008 and 11 in 2009).

Carlos Silva – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is a long shot who will probably start the season in AAA and be kept as insurance, but might help out in long relief if he regains his accuracy. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Silva, Cook and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Silva has only had 10+ wins in a season four times (2004, 2006-2007 and 2010). I like the possibility of Silva regaining his touch over Cook. Silva has also been better more recently than Cook, too.

Justin Germano - Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but after seeing his numbers per Baseball-Reference, and the signings of Cook and Silva, I don’t see him making the big club out of spring training.

Vicente Padilla – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is my favorite choice out of the pack obtained to vie for the 4th & 5th spot in the rotation because he’s had more recent success than the others. He has also had four seasons with 10+ wins, but in those seasons he has been more consistent (14 wins three times in 2003-04 and 2008 and 15 wins in 2006) and his xFIP (3.40 and 3.47 in 2011 and 2010 in LA) has been more consistent throughout his career.

John Maine – Was recently signed to a minor league deal and will probably start off the season at AAA as a relief pitcher.

The Free Agent Pitchers, To Date, Who They Should Have Signed

The following pitchers all signed one year deals that the Red Sox could have afforded and should have made.

Hiroki Kuroda (SP) - Signed for $10,000,000 with the Yankees and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. This is the one fish I am really sad to see get away and the fact that he went to the arch rival Yankees makes it hurt even worse!

Paul Maholm (SP) - Signed for $4,750,000 with the Cubs and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. Why the Red Sox didn’t beat Theo to the punch on this one is beyond me unless they had no idea he could be had for so cheap and for just one year!

Jon Rauch (RP) – Signed for $3,500,000 with the Mets. He’d have been a nice addition to the pen…

George Sherrill (RP) - Signed for $1,100,000 with the Mariners. He would have been a nice guy to pitch to lefties (as much as I hate this tactic) out of the pen.

Joel Zumaya (RP) - Signed for $850,000 with the Twins and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. At this price, he was so worth the risk!

In closing, if you have any questions about a player I have either mentioned or neglected to mention, but should have, let’s discuss that in the comments below. I look forward to seeing you there!

Photo taken from Google Images

The Detroit Tigers were silent long enough. An offseason that had so far peaked with the weak uneventful signing of reliever Octavio Dotel and plummeted with the news of Victor Martinez tearing his ACL just got a lot more exciting. Prince Fielder joins Miguel Cabrera to form the best middle of the lineup in baseball for the foreseeable future.

The Signing

Rumors swirled around Detroit all off-season about possible additions to shore up pitching or hitting. The “big” names included Matt Garza, Yoennis Cespedes, and Jose Reyes, as Detroit needed speed or a solid third starter. Detroit wasn’t supposed to have a lot of money to spend. Dombrowski himself said Detroit wouldn’t pay for another $20 million per year player. And Prince Fielder? Besides not truly needing another power hitter, let alone a first baseman, many thought he wouldn’t play where his estranged father Cecil became a star.

Then Martinez got hurt…

Whether Detroit was serious about Fielder before the injury is unknown. Even if the team claims the two are unrelated, something went through Mike Ilitch’s mind the moment he heard his star DH was most likely out for the season. Ilitch has desperately sought a World Series win after tasting a sample of what could be in 2006. Maybe he thought the dream was now slipping away. That gave the remaining ammo for Dombrowski to use all money necessary for Scott Boras to bring Prince Fielder to Detroit.

Mike Ilitch, once known as the worst owner in baseball, has officially solidified himself near the top.

2012

Before the signing, the Tigers were still easy favorites in what may be the weakest division in baseball, the AL Central.  This move puts them right on par with the Angels, Rangers and Yankees after their big pitching heist earlier in the offseason.

But Detroit might not be finished.

Signing Fielder may be great for the lineup, but Detroit entered the offseason with some pitching question marks. Justin Verlander and Doug Fister give the team a solid 1-2 punch, but the inconsistencies of Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer cannot be overlooked. Add in a still vacant fifth spot in the rotation and work remains for the front office.

As baseball continues to prove yearly with teams touting monster lineups, pitching still wins championships.

Ilitch must continue to give Dombrowski free reign of the baseball world to complete the All Star roster Detroit has begun to assemble. Members of the farm system become more expendable as the roster sees less spots open for the future.

The rumored Matt Garza deal may come to fruition still or Roy Oswalt deciding to join in on the Detroit bandwagon, but Detroit doesn’t have to act immediately. A combination of the weak AL Central and the depth of the lineup; however, allow the Tigers to take their time making a move. A team never knows what pitchers will become available by the trade deadline as Detroit proved by grabbing Doug Fister last season.

Without Martinez for the season Fielder and Cabrera should play every game of the season as they switch off days at DH. This can also help ease Cabrera back into a third base role so he can readjust to the riggers of the hot corner.

As for the lineup itself, Jim Leyland would be wise to glue Miguel Cabrera at the three spot with Prince Fielder cleaning up. This would mirror his situation with Ryan Braun in Milwaukee, a spot he dominated.

The lineup as a whole should look like this:

Austin Jackson

Brennan Boesch

Miguel Cabrera

Prince Fielder

Delmon Young

Alex Avila

Jhonny Peralta

Don Kelly/Brandon Inge

Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn

Uncertainty still exists with the leadoff spot and the very bottom, but there is very little room to pitch around anybody.

Fielder and Cabrera should continue with their annual .400 OBPs coupled with 35+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. If Austin Jackson improves on his strikeouts and Boesch exhibits patience at the plate, pitchers will have nowhere to go.

In addition, Delmon Young should parlay the strength in front of him with last season and continue to be a valuable contributor for the Tigers. A healthy Alex Avila, who has a now serviceable backup in Gerald Laird, should get back the hitting groove that solidified the catcher position as his own. Detroit won’t need to ride Avila as hard with consistency and power coming from Cabrera and Fielder.

All that being said, an MVP pitcher and lineup featuring two potential Hall of Famers in their prime makes winning the AL Central simply not good enough.

Beyond 2012

Assuming the world doesn’t end after the 2012 baseball season, the Detroit Tigers will have at least five years with that core of Cabrera, Fielder, and Verlander. This announces to baseball: World Series or bust!

Add a healthy Victor Martinez in 2013 and 2014 to an already terrifying lineup for opposing hitters and the future only gets brighter. If the supporting cast of pitchers and hitters succeed in their roles there’s no reason to think Detroit won’t be playing in late October at least once.

If Detroit doesn’t win a World Series over the length of Prince’s contract, regardless of his numbers, he becomes the one of the most disappointing free agent signings in baseball history.

If I’m the Tigers, however, I like my chances.

NPB SP Yu Darvish image taken from Google Images

The Texas Rangers have been very busy in the last couple of weeks. Right now the Rangers are still trying to negotiate a deal with Yu Darvish but there is a limited amount of information and insight on the negotiations. Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported earlier this week that The Texas Rangers are becoming increasingly optimistic that the deal will get done by the Wednesday, Jan. 18 deadline.

I am sure the Rangers would like to sign Darvish for a “Dice-K” – like contract. Dice-K (Daisuke Matsuzaka) signed a 6-year $52 million contract with the Boston Red Sox six years ago. Times have changed since then, many executives and player’s agents in the league believe that Darvish will sign a 6-year deal closer to $70 million. Time will only tell and that time runs out at 4:00 p.m. central time on Jan. 18^th.

With Spring Training rolling right around the corner, the Rangers have invited 8 players to camp this march. Texas prospects Mike Olt and Tommy Mendonca will both be trying to transition themselves to a new position. Olt, normally a third baseman, will be going into Spring Training as a first baseman as well. Mendonca will try to transition to the catching position. Pitchers Fabio Castilla, Greg Reynolds (acquired in trade with COL), Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers and Ben Snyder along with infielder Greg Miclat were also extended invitations.

Quick Hits

-      Mike Napoli’s and Derek Holland’s contact extension negotiations will be tabled until a later date. With the Ranger’s front office is focusing on Yu Darvish, Mike and Derek are on hold.

-      Reliever Mike Adams recently underwent Hernia surgery, but team officials are confident that he will be ready for opening day.

-      Minor League corner infielder Chad Tracy was traded to Colorado a few days ago for former 1^st round draft pick RHP Greg Reynolds. Reynolds has since been invited to Spring Training.

-      The Rangers have been showing some real interest in veteran OF/1B Brad Hawpe. Hawpe could take some time at 1B as Moreland recovers from his injury.

-      Ticket prices for 2012 have been released; most prices are higher than they have ever been, obviously due to recent success. The construction of Vandergriff Plaza in Center Field is also coming along nicely.

Photo taken from Google Images

The following is a list of 5 MLB GMs (and 1 video of new Astros owner Jim Crane) that were all recorded before the winter meetings this past week (Monday through Thursday).

Of these GMs, which ones stuck to their plan and which ones did not execute thier plan this past week?

Reds GM Walt Jocketty discusses his club’s offseason plans, including adding starting pitching and re-signing Francisco Cordero.

Dan Duquette talks about his return to baseball, Matt Wieters and the future in Baltimore.

Yankees senior VP and GM Brian Cashman talks about his plans for the 2012 starting rotation, including Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova.

Braves EVP and GM Frank Wren talks about how trades come together quickly at the GM Meetings and his club’s offseason plans.

Nationals EVP of baseball operations and GM Mike Rizzo talks about what positions the club will address heading into 2012.

New Astros owner Jim Crane talks about finishing the sale and the team’s eventual move to the American League.

Photo taken from Google Images

In what can only be described as stunning, the Angels shook the baseball world today in a way normally reserved only for earthquakes on Southern California’s notorious San Andreas Fault by announcing they have reached an agreement on a 10 year contract with first baseman Albert Pujols and a 5 year agreement with starting pitcher CJ Wilson. While the final numbers won’t be known for a few days, the Pujols deal is reported to be in excess of $254 million andWilson’s deal is reported to be worth in the neighborhood of $77 million. For a franchise that was advising GM candidates in interviews 6 weeks ago that they weren’t going to be major free agent players this year, this is earth shattering news. As an ardent MLB follower in multiple media forums (XM/Sirius Radio, ESPN, MLB Network, Twitter) I can tell you the Angels were mentioned as interested in Pujols, but never mentioned as serious players. Watching the reactions on the faces of people around MLB this morning – it appears this has really shocked most of the baseball world. If you’re an Angels fan you can’t help but love the wall to wall coverage the team is receiving by landing the best hitter on the planet. Only this kind of shocking news could have overshadowed the Miami Marlins spending spree (except perhaps the Marlins hideous new uniforms) this week at MLB’s winter meetings.

Perhaps an even bigger side to this is the fact that the Angels are reported to have only entered onto the Team Pujols radar as late as Tuesday. That means the Angels managed to close a deal for the best professional baseball hitter in under 48 hours. The Angels in recent years have been rebuffed by big name stars such as CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Carl Crawford. This time the Angels offered up the cash and terms needed to close the deal and got the guy they wanted as the anchor to their lineup and face of their franchise. By all appearances it appears the Angels offered at least $30 million more in cash than the Cardinals offered and the no trade clause that the Marlins refused to include.

The Angels also got CJ Wilson to sign at below market value for a lower dollar amount and fewer years than other offersWilsonwas said to have received. Interestingly Wilson (who is from Southern California and has a beach condo, a home inBeverly Hillsand grew up in near byHuntington Beach) said in a radio interview today that his first choice was the Dodgers, (more on that to follow) but they never even made an offer.Wilsonjoins an outstanding starting rotation that includes Jared Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana giving the Angels 4 starting pitchers who all pitched over 200 innings with ERA’s under 4.00 last season and should give them a chance to win in most every game in 2012.

Of lesser note is the Angels signing of LaTroy Hawkins to stabilize the back end of their bullpen. His presence and experience brings some stability to the later innings for the Angels bullpen. All the Angels appear to need is a dependable closer to meet their existing needs to make a run at the NL West and Texas Rangers 2 year hold on that division and the American League Pennant.

The question is where does all this leave the Angels as a baseball team and a competitor in theLos Angelesarea media and entertainment market? As a baseball team it sets the Angels up very well offensively with speedy players like Erik Aybar and Peter Bourjos hitting in front of Pujols. Mike Trumbo hit 29 home runs as a rookie and the Angels hope Kendrys Morales will be healthy after missing most of the past 2 seasons recovering from a broken ankle. Those 2 players combined with the presence of Pujols hitting in the 3 hole potentially gives the Angels formidable home run and RBI production in the middle of their lineup. In solid if unspectacular players like Howie Kendrick, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells the Angels now have a balanced lineup with people hitting in the correct lineup spots that maximize their talents and abilities. The only question mark today appears to be at closer where rookie Jordan Walden struggled with consistency in 2011. Hard to imagine the Angels would spend over $320 million for Pujols and Wilson and not address the need for a reliable closer. Then again they didn’t pursue Heath Bell before he signed with the Marlins either. They have interesting young pieces to offer in a trade (Trumbo, Mike Trout) for what they need and they have options via free agency in Ryan Madsen. Most experts place the addition ofWilsonat 5 wins above replacement (war) and Pujols war at 5 as well. That’s a composite of 10 games better than 2011 when the Angels won 86 games. 96 wins puts them in the playoffs, and with their outstanding rotation, solidified bullpen and diversified offense, the Angels become a very formidable team in the playoffs to be dealt with.

By all accounts the Angels have put together a dream team. In 2011 many thought the Boston Red Sox had done the same thing. I have a couple of thoughts to offer on that front. All of these players have excellent reputations as good clubhouse guys and hard workers. With Mike Scioscia as manager, don’t expect to hear things like Angels players running amuck eating fried chicken and drinking beer in the clubhouse during games. The Angels appear to have invested in good, solid people as well as terrific players. LaTroy Hawkins was quoted today on Sirius/XM: “I’ll pitch whatever inning the team needs me to pitch to give us the chance to win ball games”. That’s heady stuff for a 35 year old veteran pitcher.

It appears the Angels positioned themselves for this spending spree and a serious run at the World Series after new revenues they received as a result of a new television deal with Fox. The Angels timing of these signings positions them perfectly to have several seasons of winning, competitive baseball and to take advantage of their main rival’s (Dodgers) current dreadful ownership situation. All this comes at a time when the Dodgers 2012 payroll is believed to not be above $90 million. This is notable as even the Minnesota Twins (yes the Twins in the 14^th-15^th largest media market) will have a payroll at or exceeding $100 million next season. As a lifelong resident ofSouthern California, the perception out here is that the Angels have always been the younger nagging sibling to the big brother bully Dodgers. These moves make it clear that Owner Arte Moreno is serious about establishing the Angels brand by winning now and the next several years. One look at the most recent moves made by the Dodgers are in stark contrast (Mark Ellis, Chris Capuano, Matt Treanor, Aaron Harang, Josh Bard, Jerry Hairston Jr, etc) to the moves the Angels have just completed. In the long term the Angels have positioned themselves to take over the greater LA media market and brand name recognition for quite some time. Signing a marquee, superstar player like Albert Pujols to be the face of their franchise secures that the Angels will be relevant for years into the future as he chases World Series titles and MLB records in his Hall of Fame career.

The downside ? Obviously the 10 year length of the offer will be measured at the middle to end of the 10 years as much as the first 3-4. For a player in his early 30’s, it is risky in the long term. But the potential upside rewards are also very high. One thing the Pujols and Wilson signings do is immediately change the MLB landscape and especially the AL West. One thing the Angels with Pujols won’t be is irrelevant for a long time.

Image of Reyes taken from Google Images

It makes some sort of ironic sense that the biggest splash of baseball’s offseason signing season so far is made by the Fish. The newly crowned Miami Marlins made a big move in reshaping the image of their franchise by stepping up to the plate and landing shortstop Jose Reyes on Sunday night. The Marlins have been no stranger to the headlines this offseason, as they are in the process of reshaping everything from the structure to the look of their club this offseason.

The deal they struck with the National League’s 2011 batting champion was a major statement in a variety of ways. It showed that the annually frugal Marlins are serious about erasing their image as a cost hindered, bottom feeder in a big money NL East. It also shows that no contemporary in place will get in the way of their efforts to rebuild this team, as Reyes bumps their land standing franchise player, Hanley Ramirez, to third base. Finally, it’s the type of power move that shows that the idea of them being full of talk, but not high on action, in their all-inclusive pursuit of nearly every premier name on the market, is indeed legit.

However, there is a second level to this method that has to be observed as well. While Miami’s management has been aggressive in restricting the team and point it in a clear direction to become a competitor, the road to the quick fix could lead for some long-term woes as well, especially in the case of Reyes. For as dynamic as he was this past summer (.337 average, 16 triples, 39 steals), the dark side of the moon that’s followed him for years was still there. He missed time with yet another leg injury, the same issues that have kept him from reaching the 135 game mark since 2008. That’s over a month lost in the best case scenario each year. Not exactly the type of benchmark that you want leading a franchise revival. For a player who’s biggest gift is speed, repeated leg injuries, with also becoming a factor during the course of this deal, there’s a lot of people that say that revisionist history may be set in Miami before October greatness is reached.

This episode has played out many times before. The Chicago Cubs and the boulder that is Alfonso Soriano is a booming example. In the midst of trying to buy their way into a big run into October, the Cubs threw around all sorts of money in a major “win now” scenario, and capped it off with a $136 million pact over eight years with Soriano. But he sunk like a stone, yet still tops the Cubs payroll years after his time as an impact player ended.

There are a ton more cases like this (Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth and Vernon Wells) that show that dropping big checks for big names isn’t always the smart path to becoming relevant. Reyes’ upside is clear; he’s easily one of the top three shortstops in the game…now. But a six year investment goes a lot further than the now and for a team that is looking to become a perennial contender, living in the now could come back to haunt them much later if some strategy isn’t shown in their push to see their name in bright lights on the Major’s marquee.

Image via Wikipedia

Ever since a federal arbitrator ruled that baseball’s reserve clause was too restrictive in a 1975 ruling the players have seen their average salary soar higher than a launched projectile.

As late as 1986 the average salary was $413,000. Today it is $3 million and climbing.

There’s no doubt that this historic ruling has made even utility infielders richer beyond their wildest dreams. And at the top of the pay pyramid the salaries are beyond belief going as high as $30,000,000 per year. That’s $2,500,000 per month!

But there is also an unpleasant side of free agency as players, especially veterans, are increasingly finding out after each season.  Teams like Boston, the Yankees and Mets, the Phillies and Angels will continue to overspend but the model among most other teams seems to be like this: build around a star or two by filling in the roster with home grown (and cheap) players and reasonably priced free agents.

This formula can work if a team’s farm system can harvest a solid core of top prospects as Minnesota, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, San Diego, Texas and recently Cincinnati has proven.

That’s why “moderately” priced free agents can usually sign with a new team without much difficulty.

The players that are most effected by this model are veteran free agents near the end of their career. Who wants to pay millions for over-the-hill one-dimensional players like Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero or Manny Ramirez when a much less expensive option is available?

So the same system that they were able to enrich themselves with is one that will also take away their livelihood.

If any GM ends up signing any of these players then they are throwing the teams money away instead of building for the future. Will they ever learn that most veteran free agents are not worth even their reduced price?

Werth photo taken by Icon SMI

Wow is all I can say right now.  I knew Jayson Werth’s new contract was ridiculous but I had no idea how ridiculous it was.  Let’s examine the 18 million dollar man.

After going through some numbers of the greatest players in baseball history the player who closest resembles Jayson Werth is….Paul Konerko.  Also, please note I had to go way down the list to come up with Paul.  Paul is a good big league player and he has had a nice career but one of the elite he is not.  Need Proof? Good, I was hoping you would say yes.  Then I further researched the issue against a player who just signed a deal last year for 17 million.  The numbers are astounding.

The numbers provided are a per year average of each statistic.

Paul Konerko:12 Million per year

(BA.280)(HR-32)(2B-30)(BB-64)(K-96)(Runs+RBI-186) (OB%-.356)(SLG%-.498)

Jayson Werth:18 million per year

(BA.272)(HR-25)(2B-29)(BB-75)(K-152)(Runs+RBI-176)(OB%.367)(SLG%.481)

Matt Holliday:17 million per year

(BA.317)(HR-29)(2B-44)(BB-63)(K-112)(Runs+RBI-218)(OB%-.388)(SLG%.543)

I guess Matt Holliday picked the wrong year to be a free agent.  Matt would probably get 25 million this off season…Sorry Matt.

This is unreal besides Walks per season Mr. Holliday completely dominates Mr. Werth but is 1 million per year his Junior.  Did you hear that sound?  It was the sound of ticket prices going up yet again.  Oh the other sound was Babe Ruth saying he would get 50 million per year, and he is probably right.

I can say without any doubt in my mind that this contract is worse for baseball than the contract the Mariners gave Ichiro.  Jayson Werth is at best an average big league player and is now making the money reserved for great players, or at least really good players.

The Position Players

Here’s a list of the only worthy players (in my opinion) that the Red Sox should consider for either 1B/3B or in the OF. The spreadsheet below lists the player’s age and whether or not he is a type A or B free agent.

I would have considered Pena if he did not hit so poorly (for average) last year & I don’t think that Troy Glaus is durable enough for a whole season. Even though Beltre recently stated that he’d like to return, I don’t think the Sox will give him the number of years he’s looking for. I think that with Werth’s terrifying RISP numbers, I would hope that they don’t sign him as I see him as going to be vastly overpaid despite his solid defense (he has a great arm & can play all 3 positions in the OF), good baserunning, but he has only hit 30 HR & 100 RBI once in his career in a hitter-friendly park in Philly. I also don’t see them adding Konerko due to his age and length of contract it would take to land him. Therefore, that leaves us with either Derrek Lee or Adam LaRoche (for another possible short stay). If Crawford doesn’t sign with either the Yankees or Angels, Boston just might be the landing spot if they can talk him down to only 6 years and he’ll be 37 at the end of the contact that he is seeking…8 years. This would make an OF made up of Crawford in left, Ellsbury in center and a combo of Drew and Kalish in right. Not a bad OF if you ask me!

BUT after today’s BIG news it looks as if Beltre, Lee & LaRoche will be looking for jobs in cities other than Boston. If you have to ask why, you haven’t been listening to the news at all today! An agreement has been made between the Red Sox and Padres that will bring All Star, Gold Glove 1B Adrian Gonzalez to Boston in exchange for minor leaguers SP Casey Kelly (Boston’s # 1 prospect according to Baseball America, who can also play SS, but doesn’t hit well…yet), 1B Anthony Rizzo (Boston’s # 3 prospect according to Baseball America, who hit 25 HR & 100 RBI between single & double A in 2010) and OF Reymond Fuentes (Boston’s # 6 prospect according to Baseball America). Theo, who was already out in San Diego, flew with Gonzalez to Boston this morning & he has already passed (according to reports) his physical. The only thing that could prevent this deal from happening would be the exxtension between Boston and Gonzalez beyond the 2011 season. It has been reported that the two parties have until 2pm EST to get that done and that’s not a very long time!

I will comment on the trade once it is made official…probably on Monday!

The Ailing Bullpen Situation

Here’s a list of the only worthy players (in my opinion) that the Red Sox should consider for their bullpen. The spreadsheet lists the player’s age and whether or not he is a type A or B free agent.

If the Gonzalez trade goes through, I doubt the Red Sox would sign Cliff Lee, but if they did, I’d expect to see then flip Matsuzaka to a National League team where he would be more effective.

Out of the remaining type A free agents, the only two I would want to give up prospects for would be either Matt Guerrier (who was with the Twins last year) and possibly former Blue Jay Scott Downs. But seeing the Gonzalez trade sent top pitching prospect Kelly to San Diego, the Red Sox may not be too willing to sign a type A free agent (2011 draft picks are now going to be more important than in other years).

Now onto the type B free agent class…The player that peak my interest would be SP Kevin Correia (again, making this move would probably cause the Red Sox to make a counter move of trading away Matsuzaka to a National League team (reason can be found above)), RP’s Jon Rauch, Chad Durbin, J.J. Putz, and Koji Uehara all could be 7th inning targets. Except for Putz, a former closer, who could assist Bard if the Red Sox trade away Papelbon before they lose him to free agency and while his value may be at it’s best it’s going to be before then! I would love to see them get either Rauch, Durbin or Putz although I’d have to admit that seeing that Durbin was kind enough to grant me an interview after the 2008 World Series, I may be a little bias where he is involved.

Then there is former starter turned reliever Micah Owings. The thing I like with signing him is that he could be a decent long relief candidate AND an extra bat off the bench…the kid can hit better than he can pitch and even has some HR power in his bat!

And as for the pitchers that are neither type A or B you have Jeremy Bonderman, Pedro Martinez, Chris Young and Brandon Webb. All are starters and are potential risks due to coming back from injuries except for Martinez who did not play in 2010 and is now 39. It would be nice to see Pedro back, but I’m not sure how his ego would take being Boston’s number 5 starter after his years as their Ace! Bonderman, at only 28, might be an intriguing option and might be able to start down in triple A to begin the season to get his timing and former form back (even if it’s only a shadow of his old self). Chris Young might be the player with the least amount of risk, but any addition from this rank would clearly pave the way for a Matsuzaka trade by mid-season at the latest.

But enough about who I’d like to see them sign, who would YOU like to see the Red Sox sign this off season??!!

Jeter Photo by Icon SMI

Seems like a perfectly asinine question. Of course, most teams should be after Derek Jeter. He has great leadership qualities and is one of the top ten hitting shortstops in the history of the game. The trouble is that there is so much more about the game. Even when you include the hitting, he is due to get worse before he is due to get better. However, to be generous to Jeter, let’s take the last three seasons and compare them with other prominent shortstops. We will look at ten prominent shortstops and their wins above replacement over the last three seasons.

There are two ways to look at these numbers. You could be positive and point out that only three of the ten shortstops have been better over the three year period. You could also be negative and point out that every shortstop on the list had a better 2010 than Jeter. Remember, we just cut it off at ten. The problem is that the Yankees are already offering Jeter more money than any of these players. He wants between 23 and 24 million dollars. That is double the annual rate of any of these players. The problem comes down to defense. Despite all of those Gold Gloves, Jeter is an awful defender according to most metrics. Here are his Dewan ratings as far back as they go.

Remember we are only going back as far as 2005. If we were to go back further we would see even more red ink. If you peruse baseballreference.com you will find that he has only two seasons where he has a positive defensive WAR rating. So, obviously he has never been a good defender and only sporadically has been mediocre. He isn’t likely to get better in his latter thirties.

Here is where the traditionalists come into play. How can we possibly understand the greatness of Derek Jeter with all of these numbers? Fair question. Jeter has the reputation of being a money player. So, if Jeter goes to the Astros, Pirates, or even a team like the Athletics, would he have the opportunity to produce in money situations? Will that famed leadership make a difference on a team destined to win 75 games? Does a Derek Jeter (who has been in the playoffs every year but one) want to go to one of these teams where the playoffs are a remote possibility?

I hate to side with the Yankees on any dispute, but you have to side with them here. Derek Jeter needs the Yankees more than they need him. Sure, having him finish his career there is a feather in their cap, but I doubt it’s a feather that is worth more than fifty million dollars over the life of a contract. As tough a pill as it is to swallow, Jeter needs to realize he isn’t an elite shortstop anymore. When all things were considered he might not have ever been an elite shortstop in terms of the game’s history. Often times, reputation and reality just never meet.