Introduction

This article is a follow up to the one published here on Monday, December 12th. In this article I will delve in more detail into the Red Sox current Pitching situation. Here we will break things down by talking about the current list of injured pitchers and the effect that has on the team, the 2011 pitchers that are currently free agents, the rotation, the bullpen, pitchers that were not on the Red Sox in 2011 that are now free agents & pitchers that might be available via trade.

The Injuries

Almost like a team plague, Tommy John Surgery seems to have hit the Red Sox like a virus over the past two years. First, I believe, there was Junici Tazawa who had returned late last season from his surgery & since his there have been three more players that have succumbed to it…

SP Rich Hill – Recovering from Tommy John surgery (on June 9th) and was recently non-tendered. His recovery will probably result in him being out until after the start of 2012, but with Boston having so many lefties under team control (Morales, Doubront and Miller) without the ability (options) to sent them to Pawtucket (AAA), they had to release him. Although, if one of those guys were involved in a possible trade, that would open the door up to the Red Sox re-signing him. I personally think he’s be a better option for them than two of them if not all three.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka - will miss at least half of the 2012 season due to recovery from his Tommy John surgery. It is hoped that his return will be the equivalent of a trade deadline acquisition as he might be back sometime after the All Star game. Although, given the tendency of pitchers returning from this procedure having control problems coupled with Dice-K’s insistence on nibbling around the plate sounds like a recipe for some scary innings of work (hopefully the Red Sox can keep him in AAA Pawtucket during that awkward time is his rehab). I don’t see him being a reliable option at the major league level until the All Star break at the earliest.

Picture of John Lackey taken by Tony Molica

SP John Lackey - He is the last pitcher to succumb to this injury as of late and because he didn’t address this injury until after the 2011 season, he will miss all of 2012. On the bright side, it looks like the injury that made this procedure a necessity was directly related to Lackey’s poor 2011 performance (it seems as if he may have pitched with this injury most of the season knowing that he couldn’t hurt himself further), one that was the worst by any Red Sox starting pitcher in the team’s storied history for a full season.  Some have also reported that he stayed off the DL for the team’s sake given the state of the staff and took one for the team so to speak. So, maybe he will look more like the pitcher we saw with the Angels in 2013!

Former Red Sox Pitchers that are now Free Agents
RP Trever Miller (age: 38) - Miller only pitched in 2 innings for the Red Sox (in 3 outings) while recording 1K without giving up a hit, a walk or a run. In all of 2011 between the Blue Jays, Cardinals and the Red Sox he only pitched in 21.1 innings over 48 outings and had an 0-1 record with 1 SV 3 blown saves and 5 holds, while maintaining a 3.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

RP Dan Wheeler (age: 34) - Wheeler is a Type B free agent. He declined the Red Sox offer of arbitration. He was on and off the DL during the 2011 season posting a line of 2-2 with 4 Holds, 0 blown saves, 39 K, 1.11 WHIP, 4.38 ERA in 49.1 IP. For his career he boasts a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 43 saves, a 25-43 record with 553K in 628.1 IP.

SP Tim Wakefield (age: 45) - With Wakefield’s reoccurring back problems over the past few years and his painful-to-watch attempt to get his 200th victory last year, it is probably only a 50/50 chance at best that the Red Sox re-sign him for the 2012 season. And the latest news is that Theo (I mean Jed Hoyer) may seek to sign Wakefield (and possibly even Varitek) with the Cubs. 2011 saw Wakefield go 7-8 with 93Ks, a 1.36 WHIP, .267 BAA and a 5.12 ERA in 154.2 innings pitched with 1 CG in only 23 starts (10 relief appearances) while giving up a whopping 25 HRs. In contrast to those numbers, he has a career average of a 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (so that didn’t change) with 2156 Ks in 3226.2 innings pitched over 463 starts (164 relief appearances) with 33 CGs with 6 of those being shutouts. Bottom line: I’d bring him back even if it was just for insurance. He’s a great team player, can both start and pitch in the bullpen and can eat up innings. On top of all of that, when he gets going (if), he can string together a bunch of consecutive wins (if you have a catcher that can catch him and not many can).

The Rotation

Jon Lester - In my opinion Lester is the Ace of this staff! He has won 15 or more games in his last four seasons (19 in 2010) and 2012 should see him pitch in over 200 innings once again (he had only 191.2 IP last year, the first time under 200 in those same four seasons) and be in contention for the Cy Young Award once again with  also hitting the 200K mark again.

Josh Beckett - If Beckett has post another sub 3.00 ERA he might be in line to go head to head with Lester for that Cy Young Award, but he will more likely have an ERA under 4.00 and 190 or more Ks. Last year, for at least half of the season, he proved that he can still be a co-Ace on this staff and Bobby V might be the type of manager that can motivate him to do so once again, but his best years are behind him at this point, I’m affraid.

Clay Buchholz - I see Clay as being, realistically speaking, a solid number two pitcher on this staff with a performance that is in between his 2010 (.708 winning percentage) and 2011 (.667 winning percentage) seasons if he can stay healthy.

Daniel Bard – At first, I wasn’t sure how to take the news of Bard joining the rotation, but with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey I have to agree with it. I think Bard, if the opinion of Curt Young (Red Sox 2011 Pitching Coach) is accurate, is well suited to transfer into the rotation like the Rangers have done recently with CJ Wilson, Alexi Ogando, etc. Young mentions the addition of a newly mastered changeup to go with his fastball and slider as reasons that back a move to the rotation. I think he’ll do just fine and might end up in the pen three quarters of the way into the season due to the added workload after being a short reliever up until now.

Picture of Alfredo Aceves taken by Tony Molica

Alfredo Aceves - If no one besides one of the slew of low risk starters the Sox have signed to this point pans out, Alfredo should be the fifth starter (or at least the first guy out of the pen to spot start). His 2011 performance when called upon has earned him that right.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL: Tommy John Surgery) - Dice-K might just be the equivalent to a mid season aquisition when he returns from Tommy John surgery. With Bobby V at the helm, it just might be what the doctor ordered for Dice-K in his final months as a member of the Red Sox due to Bobby’s time spent managing in Japan. I expect the best performance we’ve seen up to this point upon his return if he is healthy enough post-surgery to accomplish it.

The Bullpen

Bobby Jenks - In December, Jenks has lower back surgery to remove bone fragments and less than a month later has had a second operation on his back and will probably miss the start of spring training. If he can stay healthy he would be a valuable 7th or 8th inning option along with Malanson; otherwise, he’s sure to be DFA’d or traded during the season.

Scott Atchison - Atchison has his best numbers in the following categories in 2011: ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.20), but his SO/9 were at a career low at 5.0. He also had very good command as seen with a BB/9 rate of 1.8 and he did not give up even one HR. I’d keep him, but would monitor his SO/9 and H/9 rates to see if they loose any more ground. If they do, I’d expect that to affect his ERA and WHIP numbers, too and if that happens I’d cut ties with him. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options). Due to the signing of OF Cody Ross, Atchison has been designated for assignment. In my most humble opinion, this should have been Albers. Sorry Matt!

Matt Albers - The only thing I like about Albers stat line for 2011 was his increase in SO/9 which was almost 3 points higher than his previous season high. What I don’t trust is a RP with a WHIP of 1.43, which sadly enough was his second best total in his career. I’ll see if there were any takers on him & try to get a decent prospect out of it. Maybe put him into a package to the Cubs in an attempt to land a better compensation deal for Theo.

Franklin Morales – His totals in Boston were his best since his rookie year of 2007. In Boston he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, a 2.82 SO/BB and a SO/9 of 8.6 second only to his 9.2 in 2009. That and the fact that he’s a lefty and only 25 years old tells me that he is a keeper. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Michael Bowden - If Bowden can continue to lower his H/9, ERA and WHIP as well as increase his SO/9 while he continues to adjust to pitching in relief, he might have his best year in a Red Sox uniform in 2012. But even if he does, it might not be enough unless it is more significant than his progress thus far seeing his WHIP was 1.50. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Junichi Tazawa - There’s not much to go on here so it all depends upon his efforts in spring training, but I don’t see a situation where he breaks camp with the big club. He’ll probably wind up in Pawtucket for some more seasoning of his game and see how he progresses as the season goes on. After all, he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Felix Doubront - Doubront’s numbers last year in Boston were not very good as can be seen over at Baseball-Reference.com and unless he can show signs of bouncing back in 2012, I would add him in with Albers and try to flip him to the Cubs in the Theo compensation deal. It’s time to cut bait on him or change the way they are using him (which may be the best route to travel if they cannot find a taker for him). The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Andrew Miller  - I don’t see where they can use him in Boston except in mop up duty unless he turns a corner in 2012 and starts living up to his potential. After all, he is just 26 years old. Just look at his numbers over at Baseball-Reference.com to see what I am talking about. His WHIP alone scares me away. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

RP Rich Hill - Was recently resigned to a minor league deal with the Red Sox that will pay him $750K if he makes it to Boston in 2012 after recovering from Tommy John surgery he had back in June 2011. I see him as a big part of the Red Sox bullpen if he can bounce back from the surgery.

Currently Available Free Agent Pitchers

SP’s

Rich Harden – I think they have gotten enough players like Harden already; therefore, I do not see them going after him, too! Although he can be dominant when healthy, but the problem is, lately, he rarely is…

Edwin Jackson - is going to cost too much for them to sign him this off season both in years and overall salary. He’d be a good number 4 or 5 starter though (much like Paul Maholm who was signed by the Cubs to an affordable one-year contract, darn you Theo!).

Roy Oswalt – On a one-year contract under $10M (probably around the $8M mark), I do that deal in a heart beat even if it means trading a few minor pieces to get it done! Come on Ben, sign him already!

Brandon Webb – He is damaged goods that I don’t think even the Red Sox would take a flyer on at this time. Let’s see what he can do on a one year contract for someone else before we jump to a final assessment on him for the long haul…

Chris Young – I still think that Young would be a good back end of the rotation kind of guy, but the question is…can he handle playing in Boston with the media frenzy and all? We may never know…the Sox may be done shopping for the rotation at this point.

RP’s

I have only listed the available arms I’d be interested in. If you would like to know my opinion on another name not listed here, please ask me in the comments below and I’ll get back to you ASAP!

Mike Gonzalez - If Gonzalez can get back to his 2009 form, he would be a nice lefty out of thre pen, but his ERA and K/9 are both trending in the wrong way, he is not a groundball pitcher and even his xFIP was over 3.7 which is a bit high for my taste for a bullpen arm.

Chad Qualls – My main concern with Qualls is the drop in his K/9 last year. He went from being over 7 and 8 (with a low of 7.47 in 2010) over the last four years, to a 5.21 in 2011. In fact, it has been dropping ever since it’s height in 2008 at 8.67. Although 2010 saw his ERA spike at 7.32, his xFIP was actually 3.72. Another bonus is that his groundball percentages have been 55% or more his whole career, which fits into the new GM’s mold for pitchers.

DFA List

SP Micah Owings – He’s coming off a year that saw him hit his best numbers in ERA (3.57), appearances (33, with 4 starts) and BABIP (.258) in the majors, but his xFIP was 4.51 (but even that was his best thus far in his career). I’d like to see him get his K/9 back up around 9.45 (2010 with the Reds). He can also be a long reliever, another spot start option or might be useful pitching in the 7th inning right in front of Melancon. A role he has not been in up to this point in his early career, but is something that could rejuvenate his career and allow him to regain those high K/9 numbers.

What I like most about his is his ability to be another right handed bat off the bench, something you don’t normally think about with a pitcher these days! Read this: in only 217 PA he has hit .286 with 27 R, 35 RBI, 9 HR, .313 OBP, .507 SLG a 106 wRC+, .222 ISO, .389 BABIP and holds a 3.8 WAR as a hitter. It’s almost like carrying an extra bench player! This move is a no brainer to me, especially when you consider that he only made around $423K last year.

Pitchers that Might be Available via Trade

If 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks sets AAA ablaze offensively and maintains his deffensive prowess, we might see Kevin Youkilis jettisoned out in a trade for one of these guys. If not, then a multi-player deal surrounding the likes of Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Matt Albers, Felix Dubront, Andrew Miller, Bobby Jenks or Michael Bowden (pick a few from this list, but there are others not mentioned that could be had) might pry one of these guys loose.

SP Matt Garza (Cubs) – Probably the least likeliest of trade possibilities, but it could happen. I just don’t think Theo and Jed would do it unless they were blown away (including Middlebrooks, Iglesias or Brittan) and I don’t see Cherrington doing that. The Cubs could use Youk, too.

SP Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) – I’m sort of luke-warm on Wandy…I just am not sold on him and I have no idea if we could handle the pressure cooker that is pitching in Boston. He also could be had on the cheap!

SP Brett Myers (Astros) – My least favorite choice. Myers is a poor mans Schilling and simply not good enough in my estimation, but could probably be had on the cheap.

SP – Tom Gorzelanny (Nationals) - Although I’d take Masterson or Garza ahead of him, Gorzelanny would work out well (if healthy) at the end of the rotation if he could handle the pressure in Boston. The deal that would net him wouldn’t be as costly either!

SP – Justin Masterson (Indians) – Probably my favorite choice on this list (which is admittedly short). I was disappointed to hear that he was a part of the Victor Martinez trade to begin with, although I would have never admitted to thinking he’d be this good as a starter. I always projected him as a long-to-short reliever. But after seeing what he’s doing in Cleveland, I’d be tickled pink to have him at the end of the Red Sox rotation! And…the Indians are looking to upgrade at 1B (Youk’s best position), too.

SP – Gavin Floyd (White Sox) - If the remaining free agent starting pitchers sign elsewhere or are asking for more (in terms of either years or dollars) than what the Red Sox are willing to shell out, then maybe the speculated trade for Floyd would be a nice option. The “other” Sox team has been either trading away players(Carlos Quentin) letting them walk (Buehrle) or signed to a long term contract (John Danks); making it difficult to understand what direction they are going in at the  present time. But seeing what the asked for in exchange for Quentin, Boston might be able to put a deal together either before the start of the season or by the trading deadline in July. I like this idea, but it would depend upon what they’d need to give up. The price might still be too high.

Hot Stove Season Transactions To Date

RP Mark Melancon - He was obtained via trade for INF Jed Lowrie and P Kyle Weiland. Melancon is primed to become a late inning arm that will be a big threat in either the 7th, 8th or 9th innings for Boston in 2012. He is young (will turn 27 during the season), comes inexpensive and will be under team control until after the 2016 season. He became the Astros closer after an injury to Brandon Lyon in May saving 20 in 25 opportunities over 74.1 innings (in 71 appearances) with an ERA of 2.78 and a 1.22 WHIP with 3 Holds. His other stats include a 7.99 K/9, .234 BAA and 2.54 K/BB. With the trade for Bailey, Melancon becomes the set up man for him taking over for Bard who will now be free to convert to the starting rotation.

Closer Andrew Bailey - He was obtained (along with OF Ryan Sweeney) via trade for OF Josh Reddick, 1B/3B Miles Head and P Raul Alcantara. Bailey, who is also 27 (like Melancon) is a two-time All Star as the A’s closer & will remain under team control until 2014.

Aaron Cook – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Cook, Silva and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Cook has only had 10+ wins twice in his career (16 in 2008 and 11 in 2009).

Carlos Silva – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is a long shot who will probably start the season in AAA and be kept as insurance, but might help out in long relief if he regains his accuracy. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Silva, Cook and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Silva has only had 10+ wins in a season four times (2004, 2006-2007 and 2010). I like the possibility of Silva regaining his touch over Cook. Silva has also been better more recently than Cook, too.

Justin Germano - Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but after seeing his numbers per Baseball-Reference, and the signings of Cook and Silva, I don’t see him making the big club out of spring training.

Vicente Padilla – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is my favorite choice out of the pack obtained to vie for the 4th & 5th spot in the rotation because he’s had more recent success than the others. He has also had four seasons with 10+ wins, but in those seasons he has been more consistent (14 wins three times in 2003-04 and 2008 and 15 wins in 2006) and his xFIP (3.40 and 3.47 in 2011 and 2010 in LA) has been more consistent throughout his career.

John Maine – Was recently signed to a minor league deal and will probably start off the season at AAA as a relief pitcher.

The Free Agent Pitchers, To Date, Who They Should Have Signed

The following pitchers all signed one year deals that the Red Sox could have afforded and should have made.

Hiroki Kuroda (SP) - Signed for $10,000,000 with the Yankees and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. This is the one fish I am really sad to see get away and the fact that he went to the arch rival Yankees makes it hurt even worse!

Paul Maholm (SP) - Signed for $4,750,000 with the Cubs and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. Why the Red Sox didn’t beat Theo to the punch on this one is beyond me unless they had no idea he could be had for so cheap and for just one year!

Jon Rauch (RP) – Signed for $3,500,000 with the Mets. He’d have been a nice addition to the pen…

George Sherrill (RP) - Signed for $1,100,000 with the Mariners. He would have been a nice guy to pitch to lefties (as much as I hate this tactic) out of the pen.

Joel Zumaya (RP) - Signed for $850,000 with the Twins and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. At this price, he was so worth the risk!

In closing, if you have any questions about a player I have either mentioned or neglected to mention, but should have, let’s discuss that in the comments below. I look forward to seeing you there!

Photo taken from Google Images

The following is a list of 5 MLB GMs (and 1 video of new Astros owner Jim Crane) that were all recorded before the winter meetings this past week (Monday through Thursday).

Of these GMs, which ones stuck to their plan and which ones did not execute thier plan this past week?

Reds GM Walt Jocketty discusses his club’s offseason plans, including adding starting pitching and re-signing Francisco Cordero.

Dan Duquette talks about his return to baseball, Matt Wieters and the future in Baltimore.

Yankees senior VP and GM Brian Cashman talks about his plans for the 2012 starting rotation, including Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova.

Braves EVP and GM Frank Wren talks about how trades come together quickly at the GM Meetings and his club’s offseason plans.

Nationals EVP of baseball operations and GM Mike Rizzo talks about what positions the club will address heading into 2012.

New Astros owner Jim Crane talks about finishing the sale and the team’s eventual move to the American League.

Should K-Rod finish 55 games – he has finished 34 so far this year – the Brewers will be on the hook for a whopping $17.5 million in 2012. Rodriguez has been among the elite relievers of the past decade and is still only 29 years old, but his shine has come off in recent seasons due to decline, injury and his notorious arrest after assaulting his father-in-law in 2010. K-Rod has merely been much closer to an average reliever rather than an elite since signing his heafty 3-year, $37 million contract with the Mets in 2008. $17.5 million would be financially crippling to a mid-market team such as the Brewers as they try to reload for 2012.

With the Brewers tied for first place at the halfway mark, this calculated dice-rolling continues a pattern we have seen from Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin since last offseason. After 2010, many experts speculated the Brewers would trade their star first baseman Prince Fielder – a free agent after 2011 – for club-controlled talent to create a window for contention a few years down the road. However, the Brewers front office identified current market trends that undervalued players one or two years away from free agency while the price of prospects had risen in recent years. Thus, the Brewers decided not to trade Fielder, mortgage the farm for star pitchers Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, and declared 2011 as the year the Brewers go all-in for the NL Central crown.

Axford has been an integral part of the Brewers success in 2011 and they will probably count on him in 2012 as well, but with the financial complications K-Rod brings with him to the team, Axford’s health and performance may be the most important asset to the Brewers success in the present and near future.

Ellis, a 9 year veteran who has spent his entire career with the A’s, has struggled offensively this season to the tune of a .217/.253/.290 line with just one HR and 16 RBI in 233 plate appearances. Oakland’s starting second baseman for the past few seasons, Ellis’s season was interrupted by a hamstring injury. By the time he returned from the DL his starting spot had been comfortably taken over by rookie Jemile Weeks who is batting .309/.349/.469 through his first 160 career at bats. Ellis, who steadfastly believes he is still capable of being a starting second baseman, welcomed the trade in quotes passed along by the Associate Press (via ESPN):

I’ve been proud to have been a part of it for 10 years. It’s going to be tough. There’s a time in everybody’s life where this stuff happens. This just happens to be my time to move on. ….. I still see myself as an everyday second baseman and this is an opportunity to do that.

For the A’s the move makes sense, despite Ellis’s tenure with the organization. He no longer fit into their starting lineup and playing time would be limited. He will be a free agent at season’s end. He does make a manageable salary and provides clubhouse leadership, while valuable to Oakland, would be valuable to another team which potentially stood a better chance at reaching the postseason. Colorado was willing to part with Billings and a PTBNL for him to help solve one of their chief lineup concerns.

Billings has spent most of the season at Triple-A where he has pitched to a 6-2 record with a 4.47 ERA in 29 appearances (50.1 innings) out of the bullpen. He did make his Major League debut on May 27 against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing one run over two innings of work. Presumably he’ll be assigned to Oakland’s Triple-A team initially.

Joining the Rockies should allow Ellis to step back into such a starting role despite his struggles at the plate this year, as the team has struggled to stop the revolving door they’ve had to use through the season’s first half. To date the team has used Jose Lopez, Chris Nelson, Eric Young Jr., Alfredo Amezega, Jose Morales, and Jonathan Herrera at second base. Collectively they have batted a combined .236/.291/.319 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 8 2B, and a 2:1 K:BB ratio in 361 plate appearances.

Herrera has received the bulk of playing time at second. He got off to a strong start to the season, hitting for average and showing good speed on the basepaths. Nelson and Young have also seen time at third base and center field, in addition to second. Neither has hit consistently enough to stay in the lineup but have the potential to be solid contact hitters. Morales is a catcher by trade and only played a total of 3.0 innings at second over his two appearances. Amezega found himself back in Triple-A where he is swinging the bat well but he’s never truly impressed at any one thing over his journeyman career. Lopez started at second on Opening Day, played 38 games for the Rockies, and then was released. He is now coming off the bench for the Marlins but still struggling at the plate.

Colorado will also receive about $2 Million from the A’s, leaving them with just a $1 Million cost for Ellis’s services the remainder of the season. The deal gives them an additional veteran presence in the clubhouse and hopefully stabilizes a lineup for a team still potentially in the playoff hunt in the NL West. But, should the team falter, could the move to acquire Ellis be detrimental to the team longterm?

If the Rockies fall out of contention before mid July and subsequently trade Ellis to a contender then this is a moot point. But if the team is out of it, and they continue to start Ellis over the young options then could this stunt their development? Also, could this prevent the team from taking a serious look at this group of players – namely Herrera, Nelson, and Young – in terms of what their respective future is with the organization? Each possess certain tools that make them valuable, but none of the three have been able to produce in any capacity on a consistent basis and the organization can’t keep all three on the roster without production. These evaluations will go a long way towards determining if they are part of the 2012 team or potential trade bait this offseason in any efforts to improve going forward.

Josh Willingham photo taken from Google Images

The Washington Nationals sent Josh Willingham to the Oakland Athletics for Henry Rodriguez and Corey Brown. This is in response to the Nationals getting Jayson Werth as a free agent earlier in the winter.

Willingham will be a free agent after next year, so there isn’t that much risk. He could be up for a contract extension with the A’s, but that is still to be seen. He has spent the last two year in our nations capital. In those two years he hit .263 with 40 homers and 117 runs batted in combined in 247 games.  He hit two grand slams for the Nationals on 7/17/09, becoming the 13th player to do so.

Josh was traded to the Nationals from the Florida Marlins with whom he was drafted in the 17th round of the 2000 draft. He spent five year in Miami, hitting a combined .266 with 63 homers and 219 runs batted in.

He came up through the Marlins system primarily as a third baseman. The fish moved him to catcher for awhile then out to the outfield.

The Nationals received Henry Rodriguez as one of the players in return for Willingham. Well Rodriguez, a pitcher, can fire the ball 100+mph. He just needs to find the plate. Yes, last year he found the plate more than before, so hopefully he is learning. In Sacramento last year he went 0-2 with a 1.69 era in 20 games as their closer. He had 11 saves in 17 games finished. He pitched 21.1 innings, only giving up 10 hits and 4 earned runs. Rodriguez walked nine and struck out 31. This was his second year in Sacramento, as he went 2-1 with a 5.77 era in 37 games in 09.

It hasn’t been the same in the majors as he is still learning to pitch off of the fastball. Last year he went 1-0 with a 4.55 era in 29 games for the A’s. He struck out 33 in 27.2 innings, with 13 walks. He spent a lot of the time going back and forth between Sacramento and Oakland these last couple of years. He is a converted starter. He was starting games as recently as 2008 in AA Midland.

Corey Brown was the second player involved in the deal that went to the Nationals. He is a former first round pick of the Athletics (59th overall) in the 2007 draft out of Oklahoma State University. He was a compensation pick for the loss of Barry Zito. His career has been marred with injuries. In 2008 he hurt his shoulder, and fouled a ball off of his knee. Hopefully he is finally healthy, but only time will tell for sure.

Last year he spent the majority of it in AA Midland, where he hit .320 in his second time around the league. This time as a 24 year old. He hit 10 homers and had 49 runs batted in, playing 90 games. He stole 19 bases out of 20 attempts. He had actually started the year in AAA Sacramento before losing his spot on the roster due to, too many outfielders. In Sacramento he hit .193 in 41 games in his first attempt at AAA pitching. He had five homers and 20 runs batted in.

The year before, 2008 he was in Midland. He hit .268 with nine homers and 43 runs batted in, playing in 66 games. The one thing on Brown is he has struck out 443 times in his career in 390 games, while walking 185. He has 65 homers and 48 stolen bases in that time also.

The Position Players

Here’s a list of the only worthy players (in my opinion) that the Red Sox should consider for either 1B/3B or in the OF. The spreadsheet below lists the player’s age and whether or not he is a type A or B free agent.

I would have considered Pena if he did not hit so poorly (for average) last year & I don’t think that Troy Glaus is durable enough for a whole season. Even though Beltre recently stated that he’d like to return, I don’t think the Sox will give him the number of years he’s looking for. I think that with Werth’s terrifying RISP numbers, I would hope that they don’t sign him as I see him as going to be vastly overpaid despite his solid defense (he has a great arm & can play all 3 positions in the OF), good baserunning, but he has only hit 30 HR & 100 RBI once in his career in a hitter-friendly park in Philly. I also don’t see them adding Konerko due to his age and length of contract it would take to land him. Therefore, that leaves us with either Derrek Lee or Adam LaRoche (for another possible short stay). If Crawford doesn’t sign with either the Yankees or Angels, Boston just might be the landing spot if they can talk him down to only 6 years and he’ll be 37 at the end of the contact that he is seeking…8 years. This would make an OF made up of Crawford in left, Ellsbury in center and a combo of Drew and Kalish in right. Not a bad OF if you ask me!

BUT after today’s BIG news it looks as if Beltre, Lee & LaRoche will be looking for jobs in cities other than Boston. If you have to ask why, you haven’t been listening to the news at all today! An agreement has been made between the Red Sox and Padres that will bring All Star, Gold Glove 1B Adrian Gonzalez to Boston in exchange for minor leaguers SP Casey Kelly (Boston’s # 1 prospect according to Baseball America, who can also play SS, but doesn’t hit well…yet), 1B Anthony Rizzo (Boston’s # 3 prospect according to Baseball America, who hit 25 HR & 100 RBI between single & double A in 2010) and OF Reymond Fuentes (Boston’s # 6 prospect according to Baseball America). Theo, who was already out in San Diego, flew with Gonzalez to Boston this morning & he has already passed (according to reports) his physical. The only thing that could prevent this deal from happening would be the exxtension between Boston and Gonzalez beyond the 2011 season. It has been reported that the two parties have until 2pm EST to get that done and that’s not a very long time!

I will comment on the trade once it is made official…probably on Monday!

The Ailing Bullpen Situation

Here’s a list of the only worthy players (in my opinion) that the Red Sox should consider for their bullpen. The spreadsheet lists the player’s age and whether or not he is a type A or B free agent.

If the Gonzalez trade goes through, I doubt the Red Sox would sign Cliff Lee, but if they did, I’d expect to see then flip Matsuzaka to a National League team where he would be more effective.

Out of the remaining type A free agents, the only two I would want to give up prospects for would be either Matt Guerrier (who was with the Twins last year) and possibly former Blue Jay Scott Downs. But seeing the Gonzalez trade sent top pitching prospect Kelly to San Diego, the Red Sox may not be too willing to sign a type A free agent (2011 draft picks are now going to be more important than in other years).

Now onto the type B free agent class…The player that peak my interest would be SP Kevin Correia (again, making this move would probably cause the Red Sox to make a counter move of trading away Matsuzaka to a National League team (reason can be found above)), RP’s Jon Rauch, Chad Durbin, J.J. Putz, and Koji Uehara all could be 7th inning targets. Except for Putz, a former closer, who could assist Bard if the Red Sox trade away Papelbon before they lose him to free agency and while his value may be at it’s best it’s going to be before then! I would love to see them get either Rauch, Durbin or Putz although I’d have to admit that seeing that Durbin was kind enough to grant me an interview after the 2008 World Series, I may be a little bias where he is involved.

Then there is former starter turned reliever Micah Owings. The thing I like with signing him is that he could be a decent long relief candidate AND an extra bat off the bench…the kid can hit better than he can pitch and even has some HR power in his bat!

And as for the pitchers that are neither type A or B you have Jeremy Bonderman, Pedro Martinez, Chris Young and Brandon Webb. All are starters and are potential risks due to coming back from injuries except for Martinez who did not play in 2010 and is now 39. It would be nice to see Pedro back, but I’m not sure how his ego would take being Boston’s number 5 starter after his years as their Ace! Bonderman, at only 28, might be an intriguing option and might be able to start down in triple A to begin the season to get his timing and former form back (even if it’s only a shadow of his old self). Chris Young might be the player with the least amount of risk, but any addition from this rank would clearly pave the way for a Matsuzaka trade by mid-season at the latest.

But enough about who I’d like to see them sign, who would YOU like to see the Red Sox sign this off season??!!

About the BBA Baseball Talk radio show on Blog Talk Radio…

When: Tomorrow Night (11/30) at 9:30pm EST

Co-Hosts: Kenn Olson, contributor here at Baseball Reflections who has his own site at Going Yard & professional (female) umpire Perry Lee Barber (pictured to the right & interviewed here back in January!

The interview (in two parts) can be found here & here!

Join us to talk about free agents, the newly appointed managers this off season & more!

The best part of the hot stove season is anticipating player moves. This first real week of movement was no exception. It’s like playing those silly scoreboard games to guess which hat the ball is under, although anyone with a good set of eyes or a good seatmate can guess this. Not so with player movement. Every fan watches with apprehension hoping that their team makes the right moves.

There are thousands of general managers for each team, each with their own ideas on where to improve. I mean, all a GM has to do is poll these people before any major deal. The odds that all agree are bigger than winning the Grand Prize at the World Series of Poker.

So let me play armchair general manager and let the second-guessing begin.

Boston Red Sox

Pitchers Andrew Miller and Taylor Buccholz.

GM Theo Epstein wants to improve the bullpen and began with these two pickups. He’s hoping that Buccholz can duplicate his 2008 season with the Rockies when he went 6-6 with a 2.17ERA and an .098 WHIP. Yet he missed all of 2009 and most of this year after surgery so there is an upside risk.

Meanwhile Miller a perennial lefthanded prospect was a major bust in the Marlins’ system. How he will help the bullpen remains to be seen. Obviously Epstein wants to avoid using 19 different pitchers in the bullpen like this year.

Epstein also has to plan to replace Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez as both want longer contracts then the four years both were offered.

Oakland Athletics

OF David DeJesus

DeJesus has been a steady player during his career.  The moving truck will back up here and a pack of current outfielders will be loaded up to make room.  I don’t expect Gabe Gross or Jack Cust to be back and would be surprised if Conor Jackson, Coco Crisp and Jeremy Hermida stay as well. Chris Carter is a top rated prospect but has yet to hit during his short stays in the big leagues. The team may include him in a future trade.

Atlanta Braves

2b Dan Uggla

This is the most intriguing move thus far. The Marlins offered Uggla a decent salary but it was well known that he was envious of the bucks Hanley Ramirez was getting.

By picking up Uggla, the Braves are apparently going to move other infielders. Look for shortstop Alex Gonzalez to be gone and Martin Prado to be moved to third with All-Star Omar Infante settling in at short and Derek Lee getting the contract he wants to stay at third. Troy Glaus then becomes a bench platoon at first and third or is also on the street.

The trade was most likely influenced by new manager Freddi Gonzalez who had Uggla in Florida.

It begs the question: Is this it for Chipper Jones because it appears that there is no more room for him as an everyday player.

Florida Marlins

C John Buck

A good signing as they used Uggla’s money to sign Buck to a three year deal. There’s a question whether John Baker will be ready in the spring and Ronny Paulino will probably not be tendered. Buck offers the team a solid catcher for a few years.

Detroit Tigers

P Joaquin Benoit

Benoit has eye-popping stuff but was shelved in 2009 due to rotator cuff surgery. He put in a solid year in 2010 for the Rays who did not overwork him (44 games). He will set up closer Jose Velvarde. Good move by the Tigers to solidify their bullpen.

The Rumor Mill Is Grinding Fast and Furious

Cliff Lee will sign with the Yankees.

They’re willing to trade Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner for the right player.  Of those three, Granderson will draw the most value because he is younger than Swisher and has more skills than Gardner. There are two likely scenarios: They would trade Granderson to the Diamondbacks as part of a deal for  Justin Upton or will part with one of the three if they sign Carl Crawford, which assumes there will be any money left after signing Lee and re-signing Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Upton apparently is also drawing the interest from the Marlins who just parted ways with Cameron Maybin.

Orlando Hudson will be seeking yet another a new team. I’m not sure why they want to trade him, but word is that they will tender JJ Hardy instead. Apparently they can’t afford both. Hudson is a solid player who needs some love with a team that will do more than rent him for a year.

Jorge de la Rosa is a getting serious attention by the Orioles, Pirates, Nationals,  Rangers, Yankees and Brewers. The Rockies will not re-sign him if he wants more than 3 years. If de la Rosa leaves, the Rocks will pursue Carl Pavano, Javier Vasquez or Jon Garland.

After two lost seasons, Brandon Webb will leave the D’backs and there is plenty of suiters. The Dodgers, Pirates, Rangers and Twins are intensely interested while the Nationals, Reds and Cardinals will take a look.

Finally, the Dodgers are trying to decide whether to keep Russell Martin.

Photo by Icon SMI

As most baseball fans know, free agency officially began on Sunday (11/7). That in of itself is unique. Usually, the waiting period after the World Series is a few weeks. On the one hand, it’s hard to catch your breath when free agency starts five days after the end of the World Series. On the other hand, it will make the general manager meetings and owner’s meetings that much more entertaining. As a blogger, I preferred the mental break, but off we go on this great adventure.

The first thing most people do is determine whether there are any trends coming from the playoffs and World Series. The Giants were pitching rich while the Rangers were hitting rich. Still, both teams were largely built from within. The Rangers core of hitters came from either their farm system or key trades. Vladimir Guerrero was the notable exception and he was rendered ineffective during the World Series (as were most of the Rangers hitters). Barry Zito is the only notable free agent from the Giants pitching staff and he was in witness protection during the playoffs.

So, before we look at what is available we must look at the Astros regulars. The club finished 15^th in the National League in runs scored and the same or worse in all of the major categories. I’m sure most people would want to begin there so that is where we will begin. That being said, we will look at four major categories and offense is only one of those. We will also look at base-running (closely related to offense), fielding bible, and age. Looking at all of them will give us some idea.

We should start with some good news. Most of the players here are either in their prime or are still growing. In fact, Carlos Lee is the only regular in his mid-thirties and the Astros are looking to deal him this winter. In particular, the Astros can expect growth out of Jason Castro and Brett Wallace. The other good news exists in the outfield when three out of the four regular outfielders are plus defenders. Put Carlos Lee at first base (or trade him) and add in another plus defender and you have the makings of a great defensive outfield.

There is another area of interest as I left out the fifth outfielder and sixth infielder. There will be a competition this spring for those positions, so there is no sense in listing any players now. So, the outfield appears to be in good shape. Now, we get to the bad news. The infield (including the catchers) are horrible offensively and in terms of fielding and base-running.

The question from the Astros perspective is whether it is worth it to spend major money for a left fielder (should Lee move to first or be traded) or whether to spend at catcher, shortstop, or even second base. There are options there for the having. The Marlins are looking to deal Dan Uggla and he would fit nicely in the lineup, but he also has struggled with the glove. Victor Martinez is available as a free agent catcher, but he has had injury trouble and a spotty history as a defensive catcher. Naturally, most people would focus on Carl Crawford in left field, but his offense would not necessarily add what the Astros need.

So, in terms of offense, the Astros are better off letting it ride with what they have. They do have openings in the infield and outfield for their bench. Maybe a better option in left field would allow them to move Lee to first. Maybe another middle infield/third base player would give them some insurance on Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella. Either way, free agency isn’t going to make the difference between fifth place and first place.