Photo by Icon SMI

As most baseball fans know, free agency officially began on Sunday (11/7). That in of itself is unique. Usually, the waiting period after the World Series is a few weeks. On the one hand, it’s hard to catch your breath when free agency starts five days after the end of the World Series. On the other hand, it will make the general manager meetings and owner’s meetings that much more entertaining. As a blogger, I preferred the mental break, but off we go on this great adventure.

The first thing most people do is determine whether there are any trends coming from the playoffs and World Series. The Giants were pitching rich while the Rangers were hitting rich. Still, both teams were largely built from within. The Rangers core of hitters came from either their farm system or key trades. Vladimir Guerrero was the notable exception and he was rendered ineffective during the World Series (as were most of the Rangers hitters). Barry Zito is the only notable free agent from the Giants pitching staff and he was in witness protection during the playoffs.

So, before we look at what is available we must look at the Astros regulars. The club finished 15^th in the National League in runs scored and the same or worse in all of the major categories. I’m sure most people would want to begin there so that is where we will begin. That being said, we will look at four major categories and offense is only one of those. We will also look at base-running (closely related to offense), fielding bible, and age. Looking at all of them will give us some idea.

We should start with some good news. Most of the players here are either in their prime or are still growing. In fact, Carlos Lee is the only regular in his mid-thirties and the Astros are looking to deal him this winter. In particular, the Astros can expect growth out of Jason Castro and Brett Wallace. The other good news exists in the outfield when three out of the four regular outfielders are plus defenders. Put Carlos Lee at first base (or trade him) and add in another plus defender and you have the makings of a great defensive outfield.

There is another area of interest as I left out the fifth outfielder and sixth infielder. There will be a competition this spring for those positions, so there is no sense in listing any players now. So, the outfield appears to be in good shape. Now, we get to the bad news. The infield (including the catchers) are horrible offensively and in terms of fielding and base-running.

The question from the Astros perspective is whether it is worth it to spend major money for a left fielder (should Lee move to first or be traded) or whether to spend at catcher, shortstop, or even second base. There are options there for the having. The Marlins are looking to deal Dan Uggla and he would fit nicely in the lineup, but he also has struggled with the glove. Victor Martinez is available as a free agent catcher, but he has had injury trouble and a spotty history as a defensive catcher. Naturally, most people would focus on Carl Crawford in left field, but his offense would not necessarily add what the Astros need.

So, in terms of offense, the Astros are better off letting it ride with what they have. They do have openings in the infield and outfield for their bench. Maybe a better option in left field would allow them to move Lee to first. Maybe another middle infield/third base player would give them some insurance on Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella. Either way, free agency isn’t going to make the difference between fifth place and first place.

The following article was originally posted at James’ site Astros County back on July 11th!

It’s not often you get an email in church that makes you go, “Whoa!” in the middle of the Lord’s Supper. But that’s exactly what happened this morning.

Alyson Footer first broke this morning that Sean Berry has been relieved of his duties as Astros “hitting” coach, and Jeff Bagwell is in uniform and will be in the dugout today.

First, some thoughts:

*Hopefully Bagwell will run his finger over his throat at Mark McGwire at some point during today’s game.

*Sean Berry deserves a lot of the blame for how terrible the Astros have been. But not all of it. Footer and Ed Wade both said that Berry was one of the hardest-working and most-prepared coaches they had seen. We don’t see how much he works with the “hitters” (and yes, I use that term loosely). He can work with the players for ten or twelve hours after the game, preventing them from sleeping or seeing their families. But when it’s game time, he can’t make Carlos Lee chase a ball halfway down the first base line.

*Ed Wade (it’s a multi-tweet quote, so just go to Footer’s feed for the whole thing):
In 34 years in baseball I think Sean was the best prepared hitting coach I’ve been around. But the results speak for themselves. We need to figure this out. Not just the front office level, but the players level as well. Sean has become somewhat of a victim of circumstance this year because of the fact that our offense has struggled…. We know we’re not the ’27 Yankees. But we’re better than this. And if we’re not better than this, we need to use the time remaining to assess the talent on the club and act accordingly. A lot of this falls to the players.”

Let’s evaluate. From 2007-last night’s game, the Astros had hit:
2007: (1457×5605) .260/.330/.412 – 2311 total bases
2008: (1432×5451) .263/.323/.415 – 2261 total bases
2009: (1415×5436) .260/.319/.400 – 2175 total bases
2010: (691×2916) .237/.295/.348 – 1015 total bases

That works out to be 4995×19408, or a .257 average and a .400 SLG percentage. Maybe some time soon we’ll get the OBP, but not right now, because I’m too amped up to do any more math. But what we really need to see is that, in his best year, the Astros topped out at a .330 on-base percentage. The Astros are last in walks in 2010, with 233, or 2.64 per game.

For a significant portion of the season we ran a ’62 Mets watch. And when you’re comparing your offense – in every way unfavorably – to one of the worst teams of all time, something had to be done. And the Astros aren’t going to fire Carlos Lee.

(And for the record, through 88 games, the ’62 Mets were hitting .238/.318/.361).

Wade is right, Berry is a victim of circumstance, and the Astros just got a guy fired. Berry has been given the opportunity to stay on in a development role within the organization, but hasn’t decided if he’ll accept.

So now we get to Jeff Bagwell as hitting coach. This is more of a functional role, as opposed to a figurehead role for Bagwell. It may sell some tickets, though I don’t know who buys tickets to see the hitting coach (unless Bagwell donkey kicks Carlos Lee out of the cage and shows him how it’s done). But Bagwell has been around a lot of the guys the Astros will ideally be bringing up as a special assistant to the GM for the past four years.

Yet we do know that Bagwell is a career .297/.408/.540 hitter. Shut your sloppy mouth about doing steroids or crouching in the box. Bagwell is a consummate professional, and represents a bridge from the past to the future. Footer says he’ll sign on for the rest of the season, and be re-evaluated at the end of the season.

Does it guarantee success? Hell, and no, it doesn’t. The Cardinals are hitting .260 as a team (7th in the NL) in McGwire’s first season as hitting coach, though their .745 OPS is 5th in the National League.

But it generates some excitement, and makes things a little interesting, and certainly brings a face to the bench who has experience in dealing with Chris Johnson, Jason Castro, Hunter Pence, and those who will arrive in 2011-2012.

Image via Wikipedia

Okay, so the two guys who are likely to be moved are obviously Berkman and Oswalt. Oswalt has the highest trade value, since he’s been whining over the last month or so, and is more motivated to apparently get out of dodge.

Citizen Spruce asked the following question:

All right, Constable, a question for you: What would you like to see the Astros get in return if they were going to trade Roy?

Well, the Mets report this morning drew some good comments:

From OremLK:

They have several good SS/2B prospects: one of Ruben Tejeda, Wilmer Flores, or Reese Havens would all be a good centerpiece. Pitchers Brad Holt or Jeurys Familia could be intriguing throw-ins….There’s no way you’re going to get multiple ML ready A-/B+ prospects for Oswalt… not on that contract. The best case is probably more like a couple B- guys and filler, and maybe not even that.

From Joe:

Havens and Familia with a C guy…I love how everyone on clutchfans.net thinks we will easy net Mejia, Davis, and Havens because they have no clue how Oswalt’s value has diminished over the past three years. Funny to hear someone who actually has a grasp on the truth.

Roy Oswalt Photo by Icom SMI

The crux of this is what the Astros want in return. You all know that I believe my own conspiracy theory that Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon to force Detroit into signing Jose Valverde, thus getting two extra draft picks.

Under my own, possibly deluded, thinking, I could see how the Astros would be willing to eat some (or most) of Roy’s contract to get better prospects and replenish the top of the farm system.

If it’s just salary relief, then a couple of B/C prospects might get the job done. If the Astros want someone like Ike Davis (whom I have a hard time believing the Mets would part with), then they will have to eat a part of his contract.

The whole Trade Oswalt scenario comes down to expectations, and what the Astros are out to accomplish. But as John Royal points out this morning, this Oswalt v. Houston Astros Base Ball Club could get ugly. The more Oswalt whines, the worse the trade market will get for Easy Eddie. I think we’ve all made peace with the fact that Oswalt is going to get sent to a farm in Connecticut, where he’ll get to run with other pitchers, but let’s hope that he keeps the whining to a minimum so as not to sink what teams are willing to do to get him.

The big question for Astros fans (and Astros bloggers) today is, with about 15 hours of hindsight, what happened to Cecil Cooper? By every single account, Cecil Cooper is a good man. By almost every paragraph following that statement, Cecil Cooper was a pretty terrible baseball tactician, and also had issues communicating with his players. I’ve been waiting for Cooper to get fired for about two months now, but I’m kind of sad he’s gone; because while he didn’t really do anything to save his job, he was put in a precarious position.

Many in the Houston media see this as a referendum on Ed Wade, who made splashy moves like trading five players for Miguel Tejada…the day before the Mitchell Report was released. Or signing Kaz Matsui, who has been a complete flop. Or signing Mike Hampton. Or signing Russ Ortiz. Or in 2008, when he signed Shawn Chacon, who later choked him in the clubhouse. Cooper just tried to win with them, and did (171-170 record at the time of firing), just not enough.

To me this is more of a referendum on hands-on owner Drayton McLane, who has now fired 18 managers since 2000 (approximately). McLane has never been one to rebuild, a plan that should have been in action two seasons ago – or at least before Carlos Lee got $100 million. It was Ed Wade who offered Randy Wolf $29 million over three years in the last off-season before that offer was pulled. McLane wants the Astros to contend, and is willing to spend to do it – the 2009 payroll is around $107 million – but it just was not spent well. In this post from April 5 (http://www.astroscounty.com/2009/04/breaking-down2009-payroll.html) Astros County broke down the 2009 payroll to see where it was spent. Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada made 61.3% of the total payroll. That might work for GoldmanSachs, but it doesn’t work so well for a baseball team. It was just noted that Coop’s record was 171-170. Setting aside the 2007 season, which he finished after Phil Garner got canned, Coop managed the Astros to a 156-154 record. If you go by the Pythagorean W-L, the Astros should have gone 142-168.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

That said, there were four instances I can think of off-hand that were handled poorly this season with Cecil Cooper. (1) April 19 – Astros pick up Cooper’s option for 2010. This was – obviously – a terrible decision. Not only do the Astros owe Cooper $850,000 to not manage the team next season, it only shows that whomever comes in to replace Cooper isn’t going to have a stable job. McLane/Wade could sign Miller Huggins to a 10-year deal, and in the back of Huggins’ mind, he would wonder about getting canned 18 months into it.

(2) May 15 – The Houston Chronicle called out Cooper for continually running reliever Geoff Geary out to the mound, even after he complained of soreness. Geary was placed on the DL on May 14, activated on June 10, and sent to Round Rock – and didn’t pitch in Houston again. This is actually part of a larger issue in which Cooper mishandled his pitching staff. Jerking Felipe Paulino back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen; doing the same with Russ Ortiz; continually sending Jose Valverde out to the mound with a bum leg, leading to a more-extended stay on the DL than perhaps necessary; letting Brandon Backe throw 20 more pitches in his first start since coming off the DL than his previous two appearances…combined; letting Wesley Wright throw 51 pitches in relief at Wrigley Field at the end of July, resulting in Wright suffering from dehydration and leaving the clubhouse in an ambulance. You can list Geoff Geary, Russ Ortiz, and Brandon Backe as three pitchers who had an issue with Cooper, or had questions about their usage, who are not on the 40-man roster.

(3) May 26 – Cooper throws Roy Oswalt under the bus. Oswalt tried to stop a comebacker with his pitching hand, which was bruised by said comebacker. Oswalt got shelled in the next inning and was pulled. Cooper said, “With your (ace) on the mound, you figure if you don’t have it you got a pretty good chance of getting it. And we let two leads slip away there. We just need him to step up to be who he’s supposed to be.” This was not the first – nor would it be the last – instance in which Cooper was in trouble for handling his players in the media. Five days later Nick Cafardo said, “Cooper has the rap, true or not, that he throws players under the bus in the media and never fully has their trust.” That’s hard to live down. Later in the season, Cooper would have to apologize in a team meeting for not congratulating Pudge Rodriguez after he broke the all-time record for Games Caught. Is that nitpicky? If Cooper had the support of his players, would it have happened? Maybe not. But you have to know when you’re treading thin ice, and take advantage of opportunities to increase your standing among the guys who can get you fired – and Cooper did not do that.

(4) Aug 11 – Cooper walks Nick Johnson to get to Hanley Ramirez, who hit an RBI single that broke open an 8-6 Marlins win. This was actually the second stupid walk in eight days, as on August 3, Cooper walked Albert Pujols to get to Matt Holliday, who was then hitting .586 with the Cardinals. As fans without access to the manager, it’s hard to know when a managerial decision pays off and wins a game. But sometimes it’s pretty easy to spot the decisions that lose you a game.

The bottom line is that Cooper looked overmatched throughout the season and never seemed comfortable. It’s not hard to see why, because Tracy Ringolsby put him on the hot-seat on January 30 (http://www.astroscounty.com/2009/01/tracy-ringolsby-is-gunning-for-coops.html), and he was on the chopping block approximately ten minutes after the Astros picked up his option. So am I sad that Cooper is no longer managing the Astros? Not necessarily – Cooper wasn’t given much of a chance, though the chances he was given were not taken advantage of. I just hope the next manager gets a little more support and integrity from the organization – from Drayton to the players themselves.

Today we’re featuring an incredible interview with Greg Rajan, sports writer for the Corpus Christi Caller-Times. He has covered the team since its inception, and we’ve done these e-mail interviews with a number of people – this is, by far, the most extensive. Captip to Greg for taking the time to answer these questions thoroughly. Let’s get to it:

Astros County: Who are the players that stand out for the Hooks that we can expect to see in an Astros uniform in 2010/2011?

Greg Rajan: I would say the two players on the current Hooks roster who have a shot to make it to Houston next year are Jason Castro and Chia-Jen Lo. Both are guys on the fast track, as you can see by how little time they spent in the A-ball ranks before coming to Corpus Christi. I would be surprised if Castro isn’t given every opportunity to be the starting catcher in 2010. As for Lo, he has a nice arm and certainly given the Astros’ bullpen woes of recent years, would be a welcome addition if he can continue to improve. Drew Locke is an intriguing guy, but it’s hard to gauge his standing in the organization right now. You usually don’t see many guys with 100-plus RBI still in the Texas League in mid-August. Other than those three guys, the prospect pool is rather thin at Double-A right now.

AC: How does Jason Castro look – his stats certainly indicate that Double-A hasn’t been much of a problem for him.

GR: Castro has made pretty much a seamless transition to Double-A. Given the demands of the catcher position and having to learn a new staff at near the midpoint of the season, he’s done remarkably well. I’ve covered the team since its inception and it’s safe to say Castro is among only a handful of guy where you know that it’s not a matter of if they make it to the majors, but when. A couple of other guys who had that trait were Hunter Pence and Ben Zobrist. When J.R. Towles was here two years ago as part of his rocket-like ascent through the system, I don’t think anybody thought “catcher of the future” when they watched him. You immediately think that with Castro. While he hasn’t put up the power numbers yet in Double-A, that should come. His defense is pretty impressive.

AC: Has Drew Locke’s season been as unbelievable as it looks? What is his approach to the game?

GR: Locke’s season really has been remarkable. When the year started, he was the fourth outfielder behind Collin DeLome, Josh Flores and Mitch Einertson. In hindsight, that seems almost ridiculous. Locke has been pretty consistent, but to me the most impressive part of his season was how he rebounded from hitting .238 in June. A lot of guys during their second turn through the Texas League will be exposed. Locke, however, made the necessary adjustments and regained his early season form. I’m not sure if there’s anything all that unique about his approach to the game. He’s a pretty patient hitter who will look for his pitch and hit it. He has a plan and he sticks to it. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Locke after this season. The Astros will have to protect him because he surely would get taken in the Rule V draft this winter. But where do they play him with an entrenched Lee-Bourn-Pence outfield? I wondered if they might try Locke out at second or third in the instructional league this fall, but I’m not sure how well he’d take to those positions. If he keeps hitting like he has this year, they will find a place to play him.

AC: What effect has Mitch Einertson’s suspension had on the team?

GR: Honestly, I’m not sure if it’s had any effect. From talking to people when the suspension went down, they were sad for Einertson, but nobody seemed to dwell on his absence. The thing a lot of people don’t realize about minor league baseball is that it’s essentially an individual sport within a team framework. Everybody in the minors is there to move up, from the players to the trainers. So in that respect, there’s a degree of selfishness involved. So while Einertson will be missed because he’s a genuinely nice guy who everyone liked, his absence creates an opportunity for somebody else.

AC:What has been the reaction – team and fan – to Aaron Boone‘s rehab return?

GR: I think it’s a great story that he’s returned so soon after open heart surgery, but it’s not quite like Jeff Bagwell being here in 2005 or Roger Clemens‘ tuneup start in 2006. Had Boone hit his memorable ALCS homer last fall instead of six years ago, maybe there’s more of a buzz about his presence here. But other than polite applause every time he comes to bat, I can’t say the fans have been particularly captivated by Boone’s presence. As far as the team, I’m sure they like having a big leaguer around because those guys usually spring for the postgame spread during rehab assignments. Boone has been a professional and I think any leadership he provides while he’s here is by example more than words.

Unreal insight from Greg.

So we briefly touched on this a while back at Astros County, but I thought…off day and all, we can revisit it a little more closely (editor’s note: this was written during the All Star Break). This is the issue of attendance among MLB teams, specifically the Astros, from 2008 to 2009. And this is a good time to look at it, since the Astros of 2008 have played the same number of home games as the Astros of 2009 (again, as of the All Star Break).

Let’s look at some of the basic stats…

Total attendance through 47 home games in 2008: 1,710,939 (8th in MLB)
Average attendance through 47 home games in 2008: 36,403 (10th in MLB)

Total attendance through 47 home games in 2009: 1,373,284 (11th in MLB)
Average attendance through 47 home games in 2009: 29,432 (13th in MLB)

Difference from 2008 to 2009: -327,655 (3rd biggest drop off in MLB)
Difference in per-game average: -6,971 (also 3rd biggest drop off in MLB)

That’s a -19.8% difference from 2008 to 2009, something I’m sure Run-DMc (owner Drayton McLane to you newbies) has an eye on. But while your initial thought may be for the Astros to “put a better team on the field,” an idea with which we would not argue, there are some other reasons for such a drop off. Want to hear them? I thought you might…

First let’s take into account games versus the Astros’ chief “rivals,” which we’ll call the Cubs and Cardinals. By the All-Star Break 2008, the Astros had played 9 home games against the Cubs and Cardinals, which averaged 35,581 fans per game. To this point in the 2009 season, the Astros have played 8 home games against the Cubs, but none yet against the Cardinals. Those eight Cubs games averaged just under 32,099 fans.

Image via Wikipedia

We should also look at the number of weekend home series. In 2008, the Astros enjoyed being at home during seven weekends in the first half; in two of those weekends the Astros played interleague series’ against the Yankees and Red Sox. This can’t be overlooked. The Astros had over 40,000 fans in eight games before the All-Star Break – six of those were during the Yankees and Red Sox’ visit to Minute Maid. Average crowd of the Yankees/Red Sox series? Just under 42,856 fans per game.

The 2009 Astros hosted three interleague series: Texas (over a weekend), Kansas City (mid-week), and Detroit (weekend).

So for interleague home games in 2008, average attendance was: 40,722
For interleague home games in 2009, average attendance was: 33,744

Interestingly enough, the Silver Boot portion of the schedule did see a decline from 2008 to 2009, but only by 340 fans total. So there’s a 62,000+ fan difference between the Yankees/Red Sox and Royals/Tigers in six games.

The 2009 Astros have also played seven weekend series at home, but instead of playing the Marlins, Rockies, Brewers, Phillies (Lidge’s first series back to Houston), Cardinals, Yankees, and Red Sox, in 2008 the Astros have played the Reds, Brewers, Padres, Rangers, Pirates, Tigers, and Nationals. Not exactly a star-studded weekend lineup, and it showed in the average attendance:

Average weekend series attendance in 2008 (Fri-Sun): 38,995
Average weekend series attendance in 2009 (Fri-Sun): 30,776

Holiday weekends are a major source of ticketing revenue, as well. And in 2008, the Astros played a 4-game Thursday-Sunday Memorial Day Weekend series against the Phillies at home (and were off on Memorial Day. No team should ever be off on Memorial Day). The Thursday game was rough going, with 29,263 paying fans, but Friday-Sunday games averaged 42,297 fans.

Not so in 2009. The Astros were in Pittsburgh over Memorial Day Weekend, and San Francisco over July 4 weekend. That means the two big summer holidays (before the All-Star Break), the lights were off and the roof was closed at Minute Maid Park. Even the 2008 mid-week series had impressive opponents, and as a result, impressive attendance. 2008′s schedule featured mid-week series against the Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers – meaning mid-week games were getting weekend revenues.

There is hope for the 2009 revenue, though. Coming back from the All-Star Break, the first two home series are against the Cards midweek, and the Mets over the weekend. There are home weekend series remaining against the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Labor Day Weekend with the Phillies, Pirates, and Reds. High-profile mid-week series remain against the Cardinals (twice), Giants, and Braves. So yes, the Astros’ attendance differential is down, and while we can chalk up a recession to account for part of it, it’s not the whole story.

Coming off a year in which almost the entire team was overhauled and still were one big hurricane away from carrying a playoff chase into the final days of the season, the Astros were the first team this off-season to plead economic downturn, and it showed. GM Ed Wade, under orders from legendarily hands-on owner Drayton McLane, trimmed a projected 2009 payroll from $120 million to just over $100 million to compensate for a recession.

It was an off-season full of Plan Fs and Plan Gs. Let go were Brad Ausmus, Ty Wigginton and Randy Wolf. Brought in were Toby Hall, Aaron Boone and Mike Hampton. The biggest questions in the off-season were behind the plate, the starting rotation, and third base –  and I’m not entirely sure those questions have been answered.

The lack of depth at the minor-league level, ranked either at the bottom or very close to it from many sources, hurt the club in that there just weren’t the pieces available to get big deals done. It seems the biggest rumors about the Astros involved the players they did not sign: the Brewers and Padres could not find enough pieces to get a deal with Wade for Ben Sheets or Jake Peavy.

Humberto Quintero, J.R. Towles, and Rule 5 pick Lou Palmisano failed to distinguish themselves after Toby Hall suffered an arm injury, so Ed Wade went out and nabbed All-Star Ivan Rodriguez. Brandon Backe gave up a league-high 36 home runs in 2008, so Ed Wade signed Russ Ortiz and Clay Hensley to minor-league deals. When December signing Aaron Boone had to leave the Astros in March due to a heart complication, the Astros look poised to let prospect Chris Johnson give it a shot – unless Wade goes in another direction in the last week of Spring Training.

So there are plenty of questions abound about the Astros, but one aspect of the team in which there is no question is the bullpen. Anchored by $8 million closer Jose Valverde – NL saves leader for two years running – the bullpen is a mixture of veterans like LaTroy Hawkins and Doug Brocail – and youngsters like 2008 Rule 5 pick Wesley Wright. Behind Roy Oswalt in the rotation are uncertainties like Wandy Rodriguez, who is lights-out at home and flat-out suspect on the road; Brian Moehler, who stepped up in a major way for the Astros in 2008; the fifth starting pitcher in the rotation looks as though it belongs to Russ Ortiz, who hasn’t been solid since 2004. But nobody knows what to expect from #3 starter Mike Hampton, whose last season pitching in more than 13 games came in 2004.

Michael Bourn will start the season in center field after an atrocious 2008 campaign, but 2^nd-year manager Cecil Cooper is praising Bourn’s focus on plate discipline, bunting, and hitting to opposite fields. Kaz Matsui needs to be healthy for the Astros to compete after spending a lot of fluke time on the DL.

Cecil Cooper and Lance Berkman don’t see any reason the Astros can’t win 90+ games, but in many ways, the Astros aren’t just trying to catch lightning in a bottle – they’re trying to catch 2004’s lightning in a bottle. With stars Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Roy Oswalt’s careers peaking (or declining, depending on who you talk to), Wade and McLane look as though they are trying to keep the Astros competitive in a division in which no club has made a major impact. The 2005 NL Champion Astros weren’t supposed to do anything special, and neither are the 2009 version – but with superstars and veterans fitting around a minor rebuilding plan, anything can happen. And that includes winning – or losing – 90 games.

For more of James’ work check him out at Astros County

The Astros last left us by missing the playoffs with an 86-75 record to finish third in the National League Central. Although they were in the heat of the race for a while, they dropped off at the end when they were forced to play home games in Milwaukee because of the hurricanes that were whipping through their city. While long time first baseman’s Lance Berkman’s performance seemed to be in an inverse relationship with the team’s winning percentage (as he had an amazing first half when the team was disappointing and came back to earth when the team went 14-1 after the All-Star break), the team still had some other bright spots to focus on. The acquisitions of LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf before the trade deadline made the ‘Stros a much better team in the second half and helped them fight for the Wild Card spot.

Holes to Fill

Overall, the Astros seem to have a solid team with no gaping holes to point a finger at. If one or two balls bounce their way during the season, they may have been in the playoffs so general manager Ed Wade may not be looking to be doing much wheeling and dealing this off season unless something (or someone) really peaks his interest.With Carlos Lee hopefully coming back from his injury next season, the Astros will, in a sense, be adding some pop to their lineup without going on the market. Perennial Cy Young contender Roy Oswalt once again provided his usual stellar season, but he could use some help in the starting rotation. Whether that is going to come from relief from the farm system or in free agency is hard to tell, but it would serve the ‘Stros well to pick up at least one arm on the open market this off season to take some pressure off of Oswalt. Houston may also be looking to add some talent that is known for their ability to get on base as well as some speed. They have some players with considerable speed in their farm system, but would probably have to add the on base component in free agency.

Free Agents

The Astros currently have four free agents on the open market with relief pitcher Doug Brocail, catcher Brad Ausmus, infielder Mark Loretta and left hander Randy Wolf all seeking deals. It seems Wade will not be offering any contract at all to Ausmus this off season even though he has been with the team for some time. With the lift that Wolf provided at mid-season, he is currently the team’s number one priority in the market. They see him as a better than solid number two starter behind Oswalt and believe he could have made the difference in their playoff run if he had been an Astro during the entire season.

The Outlook

While they are probably going to increase their payroll (which was ranked 14^th in the majors last year at $88.9 million) don’t expect the ‘Stros to spend like crazy on the open market. If they are going to open their pocket books for someone, it is going to be a pitcher who they believe will be able to make the rotation more stable. They do not seem to have many pieces to trade during the off season, but could move outfielder Michael Bourn, if they receive the right kind of interest in him. Houston plays in a tough division where they are probably going to have to win 90 games to have any shot at all at competing for the playoffs. To do this, manager Cecil Cooper is going to have to use all of the pieces Wade gives him in spring training to keep opponents on their toes at all times. With Lee coming back to the line-up, they will no doubt improve on their runs scored total of 712 from last season (which ranked them 11^th in the Bigs). If the team can jump a few spots in this category and retain stable pitching without injuries throughout the season, they could see the four or five game jump needed to be in the playoff picture even later than they were in 2008.

Off Season Moves Made so Far

The ‘Stros have been very busy this off season with their latest move being the purchasing of the contracts of three players (second baseman Drew Sutton, shortstop Tommy Manzella and outfielder Brian Bogusevic) from the AA team in Corpus Christi. Two other notable moves they have made recently were to sign pitcher Chia-Jen Lo to a minor league contract and to tie up pitcher LaTroy Hawkins for one more year. They recently signed 41-years-old, Brocail for 1 more year at $2,750,000.