At the time of this writing, on the eve of the 2011 season, the season is beginning to come into focus for the Atlanta Braves.  A strong lineup and the best starting rotation outside of Philadelphia seems to point to a return to the playoffs, but will it be enough to overcome the vaunted rotation of the Phillies?

Starting Pitching

Anchored by the veterans Derrick Lowe and Tim Hudson – who showed forms of returning to dominance in September and who was in Cy Young consideration in 2010, respectively – the Braves have one of the top rotations in the NL outside of the Phantastic Phour and San Francisco.  While both of those teams possess higher caliber front line starters, Atlanta loses very little from starters 1 through 5.  A question remains regarding Jair Jurrgens’ ability to pitch to begin the season following an injury from spring training. If he is unable to go, Mike Minor will most likely be called up to start (and he was) – a solid replacement.  Kris Medlen should also return from injury late in the season, adding to the coming log jam of pitching in Atlanta.

Offense

The addition of Dan Uggla to Prado, Chipper, McCann, and Heyward finally gives the lineup the right-handed power bat that it has needed for some time.  ESPN the Magazine calls this “the deepest lineup in the league,” and is definitely the strongest in the NL East.  While not the most exciting lineup in baseball, it certainly has a solid feel.  Much of the success of this offense will depend on their ability to stay healthy and for CF McLouth to return to his All-Star form.  At the risk of sounding clichéd: If the top of the lineup can get on base  as they should, then McCann, Uggla, and Heyward should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.  The Braves gave the eventual World Champion Giants a run for their money last year in the playoffs without Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, or Dan Uggla.  Oh, and that’s also with Nate “Below the Mendoza Line” McLouth and Melky “Huh?” Cabrera patrolling center… *Shudder*.

Reserves and Bullpen

The Braves led the majors last year in final at bat wins with 25, which speaks to the depth of the team and their ability to stay in games via their bullpen.  The loss of super-utility man Omar Infante certainly hurts Atlanta’s All-Star presence flexibility, but the addition of journeyman Matt Young should provide more pop off of the bench.  Brandon Hicks provides some much needed speed, and also carries the odd distinction of scoring more runs than plate appearances.

The bullpen also projects to be a strength for the Braves.  Gone are Dunn, Saito, Farnsworth and Wagner, but full seasons of “Everyday”-Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel and the addition of George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink should be enough to keep the Braves in games late.

Opening Day Roster

Infielders (6): Brooks Conrad, Brandon Hicks, Freddie Freeman, Alex Gonzalez, Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla

Outfielders (5): Jason Heyward, Eric Hinske, Nate McLouth, Martin Prado, Matt Young

Catchers (2): Brian McCann, David Ross

Pitchers (12): Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Jair Jurrjens, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Peter Moylan, Eric O’Flaherty, George Sherrill, Scott Linebrink, Cristhian Martinez

I now see that it is much easier doing one of these with at least one more person like on the BBA Baseball Talk podcasts or online with the guys over at Pro Rumors TV.

Either way, I hope you enjoy this & I’ll work on improving this as I do more of these solo webcasts thanks to my new laptop with the built in webcam!

So without further ado, on with the webcast…

Sorry for the delay…we have some technical difficulties with YouTube earlier that had to wait until I got home from work. I went 2:05 over the allowed 15 minute time frame.

American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions from Peter Schiller on Vimeo.

This 17 minute webcast (my first) is my American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions.

Please let me know if you think it is too long.
Thanks!

I was listening to the radio and Scott Franske pointed out just how far the Phillies have come. On July 22 the Phillies were 7 games back of the Atlanta Braves and sat in third place in the NL East.

Yet now the Braves find themselves 3 back of the Phillies. Since their 7 game lead the Atlanta Braves have gone 28-25. That’s not exactly a terrible record, but the Braves may not have been prepared for the freight train heading their way.

Photo in Tribute of Braves Manager Bobby Cox by Icon SMI

That record isn’t quite good enough when the team following you goes 38-15. That’s right, the Phillies have played 23 games above .500 since July 22. That makes for a .717 winning percentage. Work that over an entire season and you get 116 wins.

We have become accustomed to streaks like that with Charlie Manuel‘s teams, but that is pretty ridiculous.

Braves 3B Chipper Jones photo by Icon SMI

Tuesday night, Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones tweaked his left knee fielding a sixth inning grounder against Houston.

Today, he had an MRI…and it’s not good.

According to Atlanta’s 790 The Zone, the 38 year-old has a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. But let me throw this out…is his career over as well?

If so, we’ve had the honor of watching one of this generation’s best third basemen. And no, Yankees fans…I am not talking about Alex Rodriguez.

Initially a shortstop and occasionally a left fielder…Jones has anchored the hot corner for the Atlanta Braves for more than 80% of the games he’s played. But why doesn’t he get mentioned in the same breath as baseball’s elite?

Here’s a guy who isn’t stuck in a smaller market. Atlanta is on the East coast and TBS (or the Turner Broadcast System to you high brow muckety-mucks) carried “America’s Team” from 1972 until 2007, so obviously Jones got his fair share of exposure.

He hasn’t bounced around from team to team every year a la Matt Stairs or Royce Clayton (both played for close to a dozen teams)…he’s been with ONE team since he was selected with the first overall pick in the 1990 amateur draft.

There is absolutely no need to look at the transaction wire to see where Number 10 is suiting up next.

And arguably, while he his status as one of baseball’s best hitters has dimished slightly (he was batting just .265 with ten bombs this season)…he is possibly the greatest switch hitter the game has ever seen. With all apologies to Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray…it’s Jones who holds the distinction of being the ONLY switch hitter to have a career batting average of .300 (currently .306) and 400 or more home runs.

Add to that the fact that Jones’ 2008 league leading batting average of .364 is only one tick off of Mantle’s season best .365 for a switch hitter and you’ve got more than just a great hitter from both sides of the dish…you’ve got one heck of a ball player.

Chipper Jones Photo by Icon SMI

From 1996 to 2008, Jones has hit .295 or higher in all but one season. Prior to 2009, he had 14 straight seasons with 20 or more home runs and eight straight seasons (nine total) of 100 or more RBI.

And speaking of streaks, Jones also played in an amazing ELEVEN straight post seasons from 1995 to 2005.

Incidentally (perhaps coincidentally), the Braves brought Atlanta their lone World Series championship in Jones’ rookie year, 1995. That post-season, he hit .364 and finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Hideo Nomo. As a sidenote, Nomo lost his only start that post-season as the Dodgers were swept by the Reds.

Four seasons later, in 1999, Jones brought home the MVP trophy when he hit .319 with 45 home runs and 110 RBI. He also swiped 25 of 28 bases! And not to sound like a broken record, but in 12 of his 14 seasons…he’s nabbed some MVP votes.

For his career, Jones has belted 436 home runs…third most for a switch hitter behind Mantle (536) and Murray (504). 358 of them coming as a third baseman.

I wrote before that by the end of this season, he’d have easily surpassed 1500 RBI and 2500 hits. Unfortuantely, it might be stuck at 1491 and 2490. His career OPS of .941 is 30th all-time and the only two players ahead of him that are Hall eligible and NOT enshrined are Mark McGwire and Lefty O’Doul.

The six-time All-Star holds most of the ATLANTA Braves team records and is situated alongside Hank Aaron and Mathews atop many of their franchise records. Should he come back, he’ll have eclipsed most of Mathews’ numbers except home runs. It’s safe to say he’ll never touch what “Hammerin’ Hank” did.

That being said…the dude is a lock for Cooperstown. He could retire today and waltz in without any more icing needed for the top of the proverbial Hall of Fame cake.

Hopefully, it’ll be on his terms and not because of injury.

How improbable was the Braves 6 run comeback Thursday night?  Lance Nix of the Reds couldn’t believe it. Brooks Conrad – who hit the home run – couldn’t believe it.  Besides it being the largest 9^th inning deficit comeback ever for the Atlanta Braves, it was only the 2^nd pinch hit grand slam to overcome a three run deficit in Major League history.  To put that into perspective there have been:

Perfect Games:                                                                   19

Unassisted Triple Play:                                                   15

Four Home Runs in a game:                                          15

Two Grand Slams in a game (same player):            13

Walk-off Pinch Hit Grand Slam:                                     2

These stats came from Baseball-Almanac.com

This is the Braves’ third straight walk-off win.  For a team that has been looking UP at the Mendoza line most of the year, this must be encouraging.  The Braves may finally be playing up to their preseason expectations.

Editor’s Note: For those of you who missed Conrad’s Grand Slam, here it is…by the way I do not blame the pitcher, he made a good pitch that was tailing away from the batter off the plate, PLUS the outfielder (Laynce Nix) should have caught that ball! This wasted another great outing by SP Mike Leake!

5. Who will bat leadoff?

Since Nate McLouth has single handedly been trying to turn the Braves into the Pittsburg Pirates, one would wonder if he’s going to permanently be hidden in the 8 hole be given time to work on his swing.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of McLouth, and he seems to make the offense better when he plays.  He has won Bobby’s loyalty and gives 115% every day, so I look for him to be a big part of the team.  I think that Bobby will continue to tinker with the lineup into May as he normally does, but look for Melky to take that lead-off spot when he’s in left field.

4. How will Jason Heyward perform?

Photo by Icon SMI

We all know that the savior has come to Turner Field, wrapped in swaddling cloth and heralded by the ESPN wise men.  Will he live up to the hype?  Everything seems to point to yes.  Not only is he an outstanding athlete, but he has a good head on his shoulders.  Guess that comes from his Ivy League parents.  His development in season should be a priority for the Braves.  If he thinks that he has to carry the team should Chipper struggle and the rest of the league catches on and walks McCann every time, then he could press too hard.  The last thing we need in right field is another Failcoeur.  Shudder.

3. How will the reclamation bargain bin veteran free agents do?

Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, and Troy Glaus. Enough said.

2. Was trading Vasquez a prudent move?

In this day and age, it’s hard to fathom sending your best pitcher away for spare parts and a prospect.  Ugh, and to the Yankees.  Anyway, the Braves have one of the best rotations in the National League outside of Philly with or without Vasquez.  I have this feeling that Vasquez was playing above his level last year – his WHIP and ERA were both strikingly low last year.  Who knows which version of Vasquez will show up this year.  Melky Cabrera, who was part of the trade for Vasquez, looks to be fitting in nicely so far and could provide a leadoff hitter if McLouth continues to think he’s still a Pirate.

1. How will Chipper hold up?

Photo by Icon SMI

Chipper is aging, but he is still the core of the Braves’ offense.  The Braves need him to hit well to succeed – McCann, Prado, and Escobar will be solid, but they cannot carry a team the way Chipper can.  He will be playing hard, given that it’s Bobby’s last year.  Hopefully he will not play too hard and press the issue.  Chipper needs to play 140 games and drive in 100 runs.

I’d be more than glad to be proven wrong here. And I welcome all comments without symbols. Have a great day.

Rather than signing high profile free agents, the Braves have made strategic additions designed to solidify the weaknesses exposed during their 72-90 campaign of a year ago.

The Braves 2009 pitching staff will never be confused with their dominant rotations of the mid-1990s, but they have upgraded from a year ago.

Though longtime Braves’ faithful will miss the presence of John Smoltz, the reality is that the move by Smoltz to Boston was probably the best thing for both sides. The Braves needed a reliable starter capable of giving the team 200 innings of service, while Smoltz is better off in a situation where he can rehab his surgically repaired shoulder without the pressure of being ready to contribute in April.

Ironically, the Braves have turned to a former Red Sox hurler, Derek Lowe, to fill the pitching void. Lowe earned 42 wins in 100 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers over the last three years and hurled eight shutout innings in winning his first start as a Brave in the season opener against Philadelphia.

Newcomer Javier Vazquez (12-16, 4.67 ERA in 2008 for the White Sox) and second year starter Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 3.68) are solid middle of the rotation starters. Former Japanese League pitcher Kenshin Kawakami will also be given an opportunity to earn a regular spot in the rotation.

Future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine (2-4, 5.54) started the season on the injured reserve, but should be ready to pitch soon. If the Braves are still in the playoff hunt when perennial ace Tim Hudson is expected to return from Tommy John surgery in July or August, then the staff could be loaded for a final playoff push.

The bullpen was a significant weakness for the Braves in 2008 as they blew 40% of all save opportunities. They already have gotten off to a shaky start in 2009 by blowing a seven run lead to the Phillies in the first loss of the season.

Mike Gonzalez (14 saves, 4.28), Rafael Soriano (3 saves, 2.57) and Peter Moylan (1.59 ERA) lead the bullpen. Jorge Campillo (8-7, 3.91) provides Cox with flexibility as he can serve as both a starter and reliever.

The Braves finished sixth in the league in runs scored in 2008 despite having injuries and inconsistency hamper a number of regulars. Those numbers should improve in 2009, as the Braves will send out a talented starting lineup that includes a good mix of veterans and rising stars.

While every other spot in the lineup has turned over multiple times since his arrival in 1995, Chipper Jones (.364 BA, 22 HR, 75 RBI) has remained a steady rock at third base and in the middle of the lineup for the Braves. There is little question that the success of the Braves is in large measure tied to whether Jones can withstand the rigors of an entire season. He has not played more than 137 games since 2003 and has driven in 100 runs only once in the last five years.

The remainder of the infield is solid and capable of getting better with experience. First baseman Casey Kotchman (.272 BA, 74 RBI for the Angels and Braves) will look to improve his production in his first full

season in Atlanta. Second baseman Kelly Johnson (.287 BA, 69 RBI) and shortstop Yunel Escobar (.288 BA, 60 RBI) have the potential to be one of the best middle infields in the league.

Sometimes the best deals are the one you didn’t make. After being rebuffed at the last minute by Ken Griffey Jr., the Braves instead ended up with veteran Garret Anderson (.293 BA, 84 RBI). Anderson provides veteran experience in left field and is a proven run producer.

After hitting a home run in his first major league at bat, rookie center fielder Jordan Schafer will carry the burden of expectation with him throughout the season. It is a burden known all-too-well by right fielder Jeff Francouer (.239 BA, 71 RBI), who will look to regain the form he showed while driving in more than 100 runs during both the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Image via Wikipedia

Given the potential he has displayed in his first four seasons, 25-year-old catcher Brian McCann (.301 BA, 23 HR, 87 RBI) could become the next face of this franchise. He is quietly emerging as the top catcher in the National League and it seems to be only a matter of time before he has a breakout season that puts him in the discussion for MVP honors.

Because of their history over the last 20 years as one of the most consistent winners in baseball, there is a general expectation that the Braves will be battling with the Mets, Phillies and Marlins until the end. They certainly have the talent to contend, but will probably have to shore up the bullpen if they want to return to the postseason for the first time since 2005.

To read more from Dean, go to his sports blog: Sports Then and Now

Another year without postseason play after all of those consecutive years in it makes for unhappy Braves fans. But this time, I would have to say that a lot of the problem was caused by the myriad of injuries sustained, but especially those to their pitching staff, both starters and relievers alike. Beyond that, there was their lack of power and the disappointing season of their RF Jeff Francoeur.

Holes to Fill

I see the holes that need to be filled being primarily in the OF. They need more production from all three OF positions, but especially out of the corners (Francoeur included). They need another starter and possibly a battle tested closer as well if they want to compete for the division.

Free Agents

They have 8 free agents in this off season. They are: SP Elmer Dessens (37), SP Tom Glavine (42), SP Mike Hampton (36) who has already signed with the Houston Astros for 1 year and $2M, RP Jorge Julio (29) who has already signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for 1 year and $950K, LF Greg Norton (36), RP Will Ohman (31), SP John Smoltz (41) a type B free agent and RP Julian Tavarez (35). The two players I would resign if I were them would be Smoltz and Ohman, then they need to get a power hitting outfielder after that. Glavine will likely retire as Greg Maddux recently did.

This month they have signed C David Ross to a two-year contract. The question that still remains, will they resign long time Braves pitcher, 41 year old John Smoltz or not?

The Outlook

With the aquisition of Vazquez, the Braves are on their way to improving upon their dissapointing 2008 campaign, but with the recent moves by the Mets, they still have a way to go if they want to challenge for the NL East in 2009. The realization is that they are probably 2 or more years away from contending in the division unless injuries plague the teams ahead of them. They should finish a solid third above the Marlins and Washington.

Off Season Moves Made So Far
They got help for thier rotation in the trade with the White Sox. They aquired SP Javier Vazquez and RP Boone Logan from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for C Tyler Flowers, INF’s Jonathan Gilmore and Brent Lillibridge and LHP Santos Rodriguez.