<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Baseball Reflections &#187; Reflections on the Phillies</title>
	<atom:link href="http://baseballreflections.com/category/nl/nl-east/reflections-on-the-phillies/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://baseballreflections.com</link>
	<description>A blog where old school baseball meets Sabermetrics while covering every MLB team, bringing you breaking MLB news, fantasy baseball insight, product reviews (equipment, books, movies, etc.), &#38; interviews.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 25 May 2012 14:15:38 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2</generator>
		<item>
		<title>Are the 2012 Phillies starting to resemble the 2009 Mets?</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/05/12/are-the-2012-phillies-starting-to-resemble-the-2009-mets/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/05/12/are-the-2012-phillies-starting-to-resemble-the-2009-mets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 May 2012 20:00:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Pielli</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Mets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Nationals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2009 World Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cole Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Galvis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roy Halladay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington Nationals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=8497</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ I know this is a crazy thought. And perhaps it is too early to make this assumption. A couple of things the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies have that the 2009 New York  Mets did not was starting pitching. Going back to 2009, the Mets had a staff led by Johan Santana and a younger Mike Pelfrey. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="blog-title"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Halladay_perfect2.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-8512" title="Halladay_perfect" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Halladay_perfect2.jpg" alt="" /></a></div>
<div> I know this is a crazy thought. And perhaps it is too early to make this assumption.</div>
<div></div>
<div>A couple of things the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies have that the 2009 New York  Mets did not was starting pitching. Going back to 2009, the Mets had a staff led by Johan Santana and a younger Mike Pelfrey. Pitchers like John Maine and Oliver Perez had fizzled out. Obviously the current Phillies have the distinct advantage of having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and at least for the rest of the season, Cole Hamels. Also, this is a team that won the National Leaguie East five years in a row, something the Mets only did once. Of course, the Mets followed that up with two winning seasons that fell just short of making the postseason.</div>
<div></div>
<div id="blog-content">
<div>Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro suggested in an article written for baseballreference.com that the Phillies could actually be sellers if they &#8220;keep playing like this.&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div>Sports Illustrated had picked the Mets to win the 2009 World Series due to the improvement of their bullpen. The Phillies were still heavily favorited to win the NL East again this season. Unfortunately for the Phillies, their injury problems started during the last out of the 2011 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, when first baseman Ryan Howard tore his ACL running out a ground ball. Second baseman Chase Utley has been out all season to this point and left-handed pitcher Cliff Lee has just returned after missing less more than two than weeks.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Going back to the 2009 Mets, they lost first basemen Carlos Delgado after 26 games, followed by shortstop Jose Reyes after 36 games and only had centerfielder Carlos Beltran for 81 games that season. Oliver Perez, fresh off the three-year, $36 million contract he just signed, made 14 starts. right-handed pitcher JJ Putz, expected to be the best eighth inning set-up man in baseball, pitched just 29 games and Santana missed all of September having bone chips removed from his elbow.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Here is the main similarity: What has all the talk been in Philadelphia? It&#8217;s all about holding things together until Howard and Utley return. One of the reasons Mets manager Jerry Manuel put himself out of favor with fans was when he said similar things when guys like Delgado, Reyes and Beltran were out. You have to stress the importance of winning, even when you are not at full strength. Are the Phillies simply holding out for Howard and Utley? I hope not. They need proven leaders, such as Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco, to pick up the slack, something that has not happened. They acquired Hunter Pence from the Houston Astros to eventually take over as the best offensive player on this team. Good teams don&#8217;t tread water until the stars get back. They find ways to win.</div>
<div>I understand it&#8217;s early, but even with the starting pitching advantage, things have to change dramatically for them to make a run in this competitive division. The Miami Marlins are playing well and the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals have taken their solid starts to the top of the division. They have to win games now, not after their stars return. What happened to the 2009 Mets was other players got hurt, and that can certainly happen. The &#8220;hold up until our guys get back&#8221; way of thinking gets more complicated once other big time players get hurt.</div>
<div></div>
<div>After the Delgado injury, the Mets resembled nothing close to their opening day line-up the rest of the season. While the Phillies&#8217; fans have seen a lot of Freddy Galvis and Laynce Nix, Mets fans saw a lot of Jeremy Reed, Alex Cora and Cory Sullivan in 2009. The opening day lineup that year was Reyes, shortstop; Murphy, left field; Beltran, center field; Delgado, first base; Wright third base; Church, right field; Schneider, catcher; Castillo, second base; Santana, pitcher . Gary Sheffield, who did not have a bad season for the Mets, was the first off the bench. Only Murphy (mostly at first base), Wright and Castillo played more than 140 games that season.</div>
<div></div>
<div> Very interesting comments by Amaro, stating the possibility of being sellers for the Phillies. The bullpen has been an embarassment to this point and if they excpect to be in contention, this has to change immediately. Is that the first sign of this being considered a &#8220;lost&#8221; season?</div>
<div></div>
<div>With teams on the rise like Washington and Miami, it would be the wrong season to accept that. Once the Mets dropped out of contention in 2009, they have failed to be taken seriously. It&#8217;s three years later. I&#8217;d be careful before preparing to concede this season, especially with the concern over the return of Cole Hamels. What if they never get back to the top? The Phillies will be even older next season, and the last thing they need to do is give the Nats and Marlins some life and a postseason appearance. Look at what the Phillies did when they took the torch from the Mets (LOL I know it was just one season).</div>
<div></div>
<div>Years down the road, we may be talking about how a run by Miami or Washington started when the Phillies waited for their injured stars to return.</div>
</div>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/?px"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=fb73d971-e30c-4571-bc20-51c75eaed7f2" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Are the 2012 Phillies starting to resemble the 2009 Mets?" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Are+the+2012+Phillies+starting+to+resemble+the+2009+Mets?" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/05/12/are-the-2012-phillies-starting-to-resemble-the-2009-mets/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Phillies 2012 Predictions</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/04/07/phillies-2012-predictions/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/04/07/phillies-2012-predictions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Apr 2012 10:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charlie Manuel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cole Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cy Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hunter Pence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Blanton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Mayberry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillie]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=8145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Opening Day is upon us, so it is time for our 2012 Phillies predictions. If you haven&#8217;t already, check out the predictions for pitching and hitting. Phillies Run Differential Wins and losses generally come down to run differential: how many more(or less) runs did you score than you gave up? Last year, the Phillies had [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/citizens.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8148" title="Source: Philly.com via Google Images" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/citizens.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a></p>
<div><a class="zem_slink" title="Opening Day" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opening_Day" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Opening Day</a> is upon us, so it is time for our 2012 Phillies predictions. If you haven&#8217;t already, check out the predictions for pitching and hitting.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Phillies Run Differential</div>
<div></div>
<div>Wins and losses generally come down to run differential: how many more(or less) runs did you score than you gave up? Last year, the Phillies had a differential of +184, which was 101 runs more than the second best team. I like to start with a guesstimate of how many runs the Phillies will gain(or lose) at each position and go from there.</div>
<div></div>
<div>I expect roughly the same production from Ruiz, Rollins, Polanco, and Victorino. Let’s say the Phillies lose 30 runs without Howard and 20 without Utley. I expect Mayberry/Nix/Pierre to essentially equal Ibanez in runs (you heard me right &#8211; see <a class="zem_slink" title="John Mayberry" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mayberry" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">John Mayberry</a> projections) and gain 25 runs with a full year of Pence in right field. That’s a total drop of 25 runs. That would give the Phillies 688 runs and would leave their NL ranking unchanged from last year at 7th place.</div>
<div></div>
<div>As far as the pitching is concerned, let’s assume no change with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. In Worley’s spot, let’s say he gives up 10 more runs than last year&#8217;s combo of Worley and Oswalt. In the number 5 spot, Blanton will give up roughly the same runs as Blanton/Kendrick last year. I have my concerns about the bullpen, so I’m going to say the Phils give up 15 more runs in the bullpen. That’s a difference of 25 runs for a total of 554 runs given up, still leaving them with the best pitching in baseball.</div>
<div></div>
<div>With 25 less runs scored than last year (688 total) and 25 more given up (554 total), the Phillies would have a difference of +134 runs in 2012. That still puts them way above everyone else in the <a class="zem_slink" title="National League" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_League" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">National League</a>. Consider this: the Phils were +132 in 2010 and won 97 games. I won&#8217;t go quite that far this year.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Phillies prediction: 94 wins</div>
<div></div>
<div>The offense is a bit scary right now, but the situation is not as bleak as you might think. Yes, the 2012 Phillies are missing Howard, Utley, and Oswalt, but they also gained <a class="zem_slink" title="Hunter Pence" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Pence" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Hunter Pence</a> and <a class="zem_slink" title="Joe Blanton" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Blanton" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Joe Blanton</a>, and replaced Madson with an equally effective closer in Papelbon. The Phillies have a great leader in <a class="zem_slink" title="Charlie Manuel" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Manuel" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Charlie Manuel</a> and team of hungry players anxious to prove they are still the best team in <a class="zem_slink" title="MLB" href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb" rel="cbssports" target="_blank">Major League Baseball</a>. And, oh yeah, we still have three guys named Halladay, Hamels, and Lee.</div>
<div></div>
<div>The Phillies definitely took a step back, but considering the huge differential between the Phillies and the rest of the entire league, I don’t think the Phillies dropped far enough and or that the NL East improved by enough to knock the Phillies off their perch.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Overall Phillies Predictions</div>
<div></div>
<div>Record: 94-68</div>
<div></div>
<div>Hitting: WORSE<br />
<a class="zem_slink" title="Starting pitcher" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starting_pitcher" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Starting Pitching</a>: SAME<br />
Bullpen: WORSE<br />
Defense: SAME</div>
<div></div>
<div>NL East Divisional finish : 1st</div>
<div>Phillies final result: WORLD CHAMPS</div>
<div><a class="zem_slink" title="Cy Young" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cy_Young" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Cy Young</a> winner: <a class="zem_slink" title="Cole Hamels" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cole_Hamels" rel="wikipedia" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a></div>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=0c03226b-8074-435f-8889-7901efd68b79" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Phillies 2012 Predictions" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Phillies+2012+Predictions" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/04/07/phillies-2012-predictions/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Cole Hamels Ready to Win 2012 Cy Young Award</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/03/28/cole-hamels-ready-to-win-2012-cy-young-award/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/03/28/cole-hamels-ready-to-win-2012-cy-young-award/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2012 22:00:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Kershaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cole Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cy Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cy Young Award]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roy Halladay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vance Worley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=8033</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[National League Cy Young winner for 2012 Cole Hamels? Why not? In 2011, his 2.79 earned run average ranked sixth in the NL, his walks plus hits per innings pitched ranked second at 0.99, and he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting. I looked like a genius for a while when I picked Hamels [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_8036" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/cole.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8036" title="Phillies" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/cole-300x195.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="195" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Cole Hamels looks ready for a Cy Young season.</p></div>
<p>National League Cy Young winner for 2012 Cole Hamels? Why not?</p>
<p>In 2011, his 2.79 earned run average ranked sixth in the NL, his walks plus hits per innings pitched ranked second at 0.99, and he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting.</p>
<div></div>
<div>I looked like a genius for a while when I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young Award in 2011. But when he came up a little short, I received no praise and my brilliance went unnoticed. I bet he wins it this year, just to take my credit. Maybe I’ll have to pick Vance Worley this year…</div>
<div></div>
<div>Obviously Hamels is my pick again this year, but is he really a Cy Young candidate? He’s been a good pitcher, but does Hamels really rank up there with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or even Clayton Kershaw? He’s not there yet, but there are plenty of reasons to believe Hamels will have a monster 2012 season and can win the Cy Young Award. Before we look at his stats on paper, we would be remiss if we ignored his obvious maturity.</div>
<div></div>
<div><strong>Mental lessons for Hamels</strong></div>
<div>Hamels was born with a good fastball and one of the best change-ups in the game, but, in my mind, the biggest reason to believe Hamels is a Cy Young candidate is that he is finally ready mentally.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Hammels proved in the 2008 postseason that he is not afraid of a little pressure, but according to a line in The Mental ABC’s of Pitching, &#8220;if you want to know who I am, watch me when things aren&#8217;t going my way.&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div>Things were not going Hammel&#8217;s way in 2009. Hamels experienced failure for the first time in his entire life that season and had no clue how to handle it. His body language was terrible, he constantly complained to umpires, and, in some cases, he even showed up his teammates. Hamels was a textbook case of what not to do.</div>
<div></div>
<div>So, like any good pitcher, Hamels worked on his mental game. Even though his pitching was poor in April 2010 and he received visits from boo birds, Hamels hung in there. His body language was good, he did not complain to the umps, and never even once lashed out at the fans who booed him despite almost single-handedly ending their championship drought two years earlier. Hamels stated in a recent press conference that &#8220;it really made me discover who I was. That was the best stepping stone I could ever have in my career &#8211; to really dig down deep and work harder.&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div>The 2010 season also provided more examples. When the Philadelphia Phillies brought Lee back to town, Hamels was now considered the fourth best starter on his own team. That might have bothered the old Cole Hamels, but the new one barely noticed. He didn’t whine a bit when his team gave him no run support for the second straight season.</div>
<div></div>
<div>However, the best example of his growth came in Game 3 of the National League Divisional Series against the Cardinals. In that game, the home-plate umpire was squeezing him, the Cardinals were fouling off every pitch within a yard of the plate, and his pitch count rose exponentially. While I threw stuff at the TV, Hamels tuned out the frustration and maintained his cool in six of the toughest innings I can remember. As Hamels himself said, &#8220;I knew that every pitch mattered. Every inning mattered. We&#8217;re not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep.&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div><strong>New pitch, new pitcher</strong></div>
<div>A 10-11 record and 4.32 ERA in 2009 forced Hamels to add another pitch &#8211; a cutter &#8211; to his arsenal.</div>
<div></div>
<div>After some early struggles in 2010 and a 4.08 ERA through June, he boasted a 2.28 ERA in the last three months of the season. Last season, Hamels set season career best marks in ERA, complete games, WHIP, hits per nine innings, home runs per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Hamels had an ERA of 2.61 in the 18 months since “mastering” the cutter.</div>
<div></div>
<div>That mark alone is better than the ERAs of four of the last eight Cy Young winners.</div>
<div></div>
<div><strong>Can Hamels keep it going?</strong></div>
<div>The question that remains &#8220;Is Hamels ready to take the next step towards becoming an elite pitcher?&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div>The numbers say Hamels is plenty capable of doing just that.</div>
<div></div>
<div>First of all, Hamels was consistent in 2011. Comparing his averages each month, his WHIP ranged from 0.80 to 1.11, his walks per nine innings from 1.3 to 2.1, and his hits per nine innings from 5.9 to 7.6. He was not just lucky.</div>
<div></div>
<div>His overall improvement compared to his career averages is also encouraging. His home runs per nine innings improved from 1.09 to 0.79, his home runs-to-flyballs from 11.5 percent to 9.9 percent, his extra base hit percentage from 8.1 percent to 6.2 percent, and his line drive percentage from 18.7 percent to 15 percent. Those increases suggest that hitters made weaker contact. Less line drives meant less quality hits and subsequently fewer extra base hits. Fewer home runs per fly balls meant he was likely jamming hitters more frequently and keeping them off-balance more often.</div>
<div></div>
<div>His walks per nine innings also improved from 2.26 in his career to 1.83 in 2011, both well in line with Roy Halladay&#8217;s 1.35 and Cliff Lee&#8217;s 1.62.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Bottom line: Hamels has improved in nearly every facet of his game and that increase has been consistent.</div>
<div></div>
<div><strong>Other factors</strong></div>
<div>Hamels admitted himself during his recent press conference that his sports hernia and loose bodies in his elbow were &#8220;both uncomfortable.&#8221;</div>
<div></div>
<div>Common sense tells you that Hamels should pitch even better with those problems resolved.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Finally, how much better might Hamels be if got a little run support?</div>
<div></div>
<div>A 2012 Cy Young Award for Hamels is a reality</div>
<p>When I picked Hamels to win the Cy Young last year, it was little more than blind faith and hope since he had never performed at quite that level previously. But there now exists 18 months of statistics to back up a Cy Young prediction.</p>
<p>I just hope he wins the award after the Phillies lock him up long term and not before the New York Yankees steal him in free agency.</p>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=c89dce59-24d9-497f-962e-457dbe14fbe7" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Cole Hamels Ready to Win 2012 Cy Young Award" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Cole+Hamels+Ready+to+Win+2012+Cy+Young+Award" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2012/03/28/cole-hamels-ready-to-win-2012-cy-young-award/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Jimmy Rollins Signs 3 yr $33 Million Contract With Philly</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/12/28/jimmy-rollins-signs-3-yr-33-million-contract-with-philly/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/12/28/jimmy-rollins-signs-3-yr-33-million-contract-with-philly/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Dec 2011 19:17:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Campbell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Rollins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player Award]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mayberry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National League East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rollins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=7188</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[News of the Rollins signing has had negative comments rising up in Philly Phans, who wished to see a faltering SS who had a horrible playoff and has a history of lackluster effort in jogging to first, go to another team for a cheaper option. &#160; However, Rollins has had positive contributions to this team [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_7189" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 604px"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Rollins.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-7189" title="Rollins" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Rollins.jpg" alt="" width="594" height="395" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Zimbio photo of Jimmy Rollins found on Google Images</p></div>
<p>News of the <a class="zem_slink" title="Jimmy Rollins" href="http://www.jimmyrollins.com" rel="homepage">Rollins</a> signing has had negative comments rising up in Philly Phans, who wished to see a faltering <a class="zem_slink" title="Schutzstaffel" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=52.5072222222,13.3825&amp;spn=0.01,0.01&amp;q=52.5072222222,13.3825 (Schutzstaffel)&amp;t=h" rel="geolocation">SS</a> who had a horrible playoff and has a history of lackluster effort in jogging to first, go to another team for a cheaper option.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>However, Rollins has had positive contributions to this team and for three years and an option for a fourth, he signed for cheaper than what the <a class="zem_slink" title="Brewers" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/MIL" rel="homepage">Brewers</a> were offering. With Rollins back and Wiggington on the roster that also means versatile but weak hitting Michael Martinez will go to AAA where he belongs.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 246px"><a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:RollinsJ.jpg"><img class="zemanta-img-inserted" title="J-Roll before the March 10, 2007 split-squad g..." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/RollinsJ.jpg" alt="J-Roll before the March 10, 2007 split-squad g..." width="236" height="429" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Image via Wikipedia</p></div>
<p>It also gives Freddy Galvis time to find his swing in AAA, as he did not impress so much last year and at 22 he still has time to develop, although he seems to be a subpar prospect at best. That will give the <a class="zem_slink" title="Philadelphia Phillies" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Phillies" rel="wikipedia">Phillies</a> an option of waiting two years for Galvis and perhaps trading Rollins by the <a class="zem_slink" title="Trade (sports)" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_%28sports%29" rel="wikipedia">trade deadline</a> in his 3rd year, or another SS turns into a good prospect or FA picture.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With Rollins now in place that means <a class="zem_slink" title="Polanco (Mexico)" href="http://www.polanco-online.com.mx" rel="homepage">Polanco</a> will man 3rd with help from Wigginton, and that barring any big signing; <a class="zem_slink" title="Mayberry" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayberry" rel="wikipedia">Mayberry</a> Jr. will be the starting LFer. Polanco is old and fragile, Mayberry is unproven and last year seemed like a career year for a fringe player&#8230;but with a team that needs to win now before they become old in the rotation, getting Rollins aboard for 3 years is good for the timeline of the closing window of the Phillies being atop the <a class="zem_slink" title="National League East" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_League_East" rel="wikipedia">NL East</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Rollins has hinted at being a HOFer, which is a stretch at best. He will not have another (disputed) <a class="zem_slink" title="Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player Award" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_Most_Valuable_Player_Award" rel="wikipedia">MVP award</a> season in him, but if he continues to improve his pitches seen per <a class="zem_slink" title="Plate appearance" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_appearance" rel="wikipedia">plate appearance</a> to be top 30 in that category, he will still be a valuable leadoff hitter.</p>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=276717ff-b000-402a-bba0-20368ca973a3" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Jimmy Rollins Signs 3 yr $33 Million Contract With Philly" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Jimmy+Rollins+Signs+3+yr+$33+Million+Contract+With+Philly" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/12/28/jimmy-rollins-signs-3-yr-33-million-contract-with-philly/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Partial Papelbon Press Conference in Philly</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/11/15/partial-papelbon-press-conference-in-philly/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/11/15/partial-papelbon-press-conference-in-philly/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2011 18:41:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Schiller</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Breaking News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[closer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Papelbon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=6945</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Former Red Sox Closer (since 2005 with 219 saves, most by any Boston pitcher) recently signed a 4 year (with a vesting option on a 6th) deal with the Phillies for $50M&#8230; &#160; Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_6946" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 610px"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/PapelbonPhilly.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-6946" title="AFP-Getty_132810405" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/PapelbonPhilly.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="340" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Image taken from Google Images</p></div>
<p>Former Red Sox Closer (since 2005 with 219 saves, most by any Boston pitcher) recently signed a 4 year (with a vesting option on a 6th) deal with the Phillies for $50M&#8230;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<br />
<object width="600" height="454"><param name="movie" value="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/flash/video/share/ObjectEmbedFrame.swf?content_id=19983605&#038;topic_id=&#038;width=400&#038;height=254&#038;property=mlb" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="scale" value="noscale" /><param name="salign" value="tl" /><embed src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/flash/video/share/ObjectEmbedFrame.swf?content_id=19983605&#038;topic_id=&#038;width=400&#038;height=254&#038;property=mlb" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="never"  allowfullscreen="true"  width="600" height="454" scale="noscale" salign ="tl" /></object></p>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Partial Papelbon Press Conference in Philly" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Partial+Papelbon+Press+Conference+in+Philly" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/11/15/partial-papelbon-press-conference-in-philly/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Hamels Pitched A Remarkable Game, In Case Anyone Noticed</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/06/hamels-pitched-a-remarkable-game-in-case-anyone-noticed/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/06/hamels-pitched-a-remarkable-game-in-case-anyone-noticed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2011 22:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Breaking News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cole Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Games]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rich Dubee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=6658</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With Cole Hamels on the mound Tuesday night, I bet you couldn&#8217;t keep your eyes off the little blue batter’s box on TBS with a teeny pitch count above it. We watched Hamels’ pitch count climb higher and higher, while Garcia finished his innings quicker than a trip to the bathroom. &#160; By the third [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_5289" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 610px"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Cole-Hamels.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-5289" title="Cole-Hamels" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Cole-Hamels.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Photo taken from Google Images</p></div>
<p>With <a class="zem_slink" title="Cole Hamels" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cole_Hamels" rel="wikipedia">Cole Hamels</a> on the mound Tuesday night, I bet you couldn&#8217;t keep your eyes off the little blue batter’s box on TBS with a teeny <a class="zem_slink" title="Pitch count" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitch_count" rel="wikipedia">pitch count</a> above it. We watched Hamels’ pitch count climb higher and higher, while Garcia finished his innings quicker than a trip to the bathroom.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>By the third inning it was clear that Hamels was struggling.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Then <a class="zem_slink" title="Rich Dubee" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Dubee" rel="wikipedia">Rich Dubee</a> made some funny comments. Dubee praised Hamels for his poise and presence on the mound, the velocity on his fastball and the movement on his pitches. Were we watching the same game?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Wait a minute. Let’s think about this for a second. Maybe Hamels deserves the praise. He faced a very dangerous Cardinals team who showed us exactly why they have the best offense in the league. Yes, Hamels threw a lot of pitches, but that was his only choice against a patient Cardinals squad. I mean, look at what happened to Halladay and Lee when they left pitches over the plate, giving up 8 runs between the two of them.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hamels explained his approach perfectly. &#8220;I was trying to make pitches and just keep them down. If I missed, I knew I got another opportunity. If you&#8217;re making your mistakes up in the zone, you&#8217;re pretty much going to pay for it really bad. But if they&#8217;re down, you give yourself probably a better opportunity to get out of the inning.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>You have two choices against an offense like the <a class="zem_slink" title="St. Louis Cardinals" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis_Cardinals" rel="wikipedia">St. Louis Cardinals</a>. You keep working the corners and watch your pitch count rise or you start creeping toward the middle of the plate and meet the same fate as Hamels’ opponent. Garcia made one mistake and it lost him the game. Hamels made none and wound up the victor.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;I knew that every pitch mattered,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Every inning mattered. They had a great pitcher on the mound . . . We were 1-1 in the series . . . We&#8217;re not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Yet his performance has already been gone and forgotten. Go to <a href="http://philly.com/" target="_blank">philly.com</a> and <a href="http://phillies.com/" target="_blank">phillies.com</a> and you will see what I mean. Only one article on <a href="http://philly.com/" target="_blank">philly.com</a> about Hamels and none on Phillies.com. In fact, Cole Hamels name was mentioned exactly 4 times in three Game 3 articles on <a href="http://phillies.com/" target="_blank">phillies.com</a>. He has the second lowest <a class="zem_slink" title="Earned run average" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run_average" rel="wikipedia">ERA</a> (1.81) in Division Series history and became the winningest pitcher in Phillies postseason history, yet he had a GRAND TOTAL OF 4 MENTIONS.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A <a class="zem_slink" title="Championship ring" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Championship_ring" rel="wikipedia">World Series ring</a> and <a class="zem_slink" title="2008 National League Championship Series" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_National_League_Championship_Series" rel="wikipedia">2008 NLCS</a> and <a class="zem_slink" title="World Series Most Valuable Player Award" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_Most_Valuable_Player_Award" rel="wikipedia">World Series MVP</a> honors didn’t get Hamels noticed and neither did 4 postseason wins in 2008, 7 postseason wins overall, a 2.65 postseason ERA since 2007, or 6 shutout innings last night.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The question is, how many championships will it take before Hamels gets the respect he deserves?</p>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=af3d9ebf-09a8-476b-85ed-3f45566019a6" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Hamels Pitched A Remarkable Game, In Case Anyone Noticed" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Hamels+Pitched+A+Remarkable+Game,+In+Case+Anyone+Noticed" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/06/hamels-pitched-a-remarkable-game-in-case-anyone-noticed/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Remember Michael Stutes?</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/05/remember-michael-stutes/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/05/remember-michael-stutes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2011 22:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Breaking News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Eaton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Antonio Bastardo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Coste]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Herndon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earned run average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Stutes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Madson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=6636</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When did Michael Stutes all of a sudden become Adam Eaton? &#160; Michael Stutes had one bad month in August and all of a sudden everyone is ready to toss him aside like yesterday’s sports page. &#160; This weekend I heard two reporters (David Murphy and some other guy) agree that essentially Stutes is no [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_6637" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 604px"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/MichaelStutes.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-6637" title="MichaelStutes" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/MichaelStutes.jpg" alt="" width="594" height="350" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Image taken from Zimbio</p></div>
<p>When did Michael Stutes all of a sudden become <a class="zem_slink" title="Adam Eaton" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Eaton" rel="wikipedia">Adam Eaton</a>?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Michael Stutes had one bad month in August and all of a sudden everyone is ready to toss him aside like yesterday’s sports page.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This weekend I heard two reporters (David Murphy and some other guy) agree that essentially Stutes is no more than a last resort or a “mop-up” guy.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a class="zem_slink" title="Chris Coste" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Coste" rel="wikipedia">Chris Coste</a> said he would have chosen Herndon over Stutes for the final NLDS roster spot. Herndon?! <a class="zem_slink" title="David Herndon (baseball)" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Herndon_%28baseball%29" rel="wikipedia">David Herndon</a>?! Admittedly, Herndon’s <a class="zem_slink" title="Earned run average" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run_average" rel="wikipedia">ERA</a> (3.32) is better than Stutes (3.63), but c’mon! Tell me he hasn’t fallen that far?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Stutes ran into some big time struggles in August, surrendering eight runs in 12.1 innings and an 5.84 ERA for the month. But that was a month ago. Stutes bounced back with a 3.00 ERA in September and seemed to regain his form, but it apparently didn’t put him in favor of the <a class="zem_slink" title="Philadelphia Phillies" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Phillies" rel="wikipedia">Phillies</a> media.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In some ways, you might say there is reason to have MORE confidence in Stutes, not less. In The Mental ABC’s of Pitching the author writes, &#8220;If you want to know who I am, watch me when things aren&#8217;t going my way.&#8221; Things clearly weren&#8217;t going his way in August. But Stutes&#8217; ERA in September ranked 2nd out of his five full months and it was his third best month in BB/9, K/9, and <a class="zem_slink" title="Walks plus hits per inning pitched" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walks_plus_hits_per_inning_pitched" rel="wikipedia">WHIP</a>. Stutes struggled for the first time in his young big league career and survived to find the light at the end of the tunnel. That speaks volumes to the character of Michael Stutes!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Maybe this argument would have been better BEFORE he gave up three runs in a third of an inning in Game 1 of the NLDS, but Stutes does not belong in the back of the bus just yet. You can argue that <a class="zem_slink" title="Ryan Madson" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Madson" rel="wikipedia">Madson</a>, <a class="zem_slink" title="Antonio Bastardo" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Bastardo" rel="wikipedia">Bastardo</a>, Lidge, Worley, and even Kendrick all belong ahead of Stutes, but just not Herndon.</p>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=b52d2c93-a564-4d41-a8c5-2e32eb0ce197" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Remember Michael Stutes?" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Remember+Michael+Stutes?" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/05/remember-michael-stutes/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Analyzing Phillies in the Playoffs</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/01/analyzing-phillies-in-the-playoffs/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/01/analyzing-phillies-in-the-playoffs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2011 12:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Breaking News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National League Championship Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National League Division Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NLDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Win–loss record]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yankees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=6606</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s playoff time, and if the past is any indication the Phillies are ready. Since 2007 (we can forget getting swept in 2007, right?), the Phillies are 25-13 in the postseason, have reached the NLCS in three straight seasons, and have only lost two series in three years. We can learn much more about the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/nlds_2011_475x310_q85.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6607" title="nlds_2011_475x310_q85" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/nlds_2011_475x310_q85.jpg" alt="" width="475" height="213" /></a></p>
<div>It’s <a class="zem_slink" title="Playoffs" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playoffs" rel="wikipedia">playoff</a> time, and if the past is any indication the <a class="zem_slink" title="Philadelphia Phillies" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Phillies" rel="wikipedia">Phillies</a> are ready.</div>
<div>Since 2007 (we can forget getting swept in 2007, right?), the Phillies are 25-13 in the postseason, have reached the <a class="zem_slink" title="National League Championship Series" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_League_Championship_Series" rel="wikipedia">NLCS</a> in three straight seasons, and have only lost two series in three years. We can learn much more about the Phillies playoff character by digging a little deeper into their postseason record. With 38 games to choose from, we can get a good idea of how the Phillies handle just about any situation. Let’s take a closer look at what they’ve done in the playoffs:</div>
<div><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmOZ4YWXSI68dDBhVWZaaENzQ3VOanI1bC1pVEFjU0E&amp;single=true&amp;gid=0&amp;output=html&amp;widget=true" frameborder="0" width="500" height="300"></iframe></div>
<div>The Phillies have been solid in just about any playoff situation. We can see that the Phillies start out hot (7-1 in game 1’s), are great frontrunners (13-4 with the lead), and they know how to close it out (6-1 in clinchers). The Phillies also have a 15-5 record at home and an 11-2 record in the <a class="zem_slink" title="National League Division Series" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_League_Division_Series" rel="wikipedia">NLDS</a>. In a nutshell, the Phillies are excellent when they are in the driver’s seat and they know how to kick a guy when he’s down (hope you like cliches).</div>
<div>And the Phillies have given themselves the advantage a whole lot. They had not trailed in a series until the <a class="zem_slink" title="Yankees" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/NYY" rel="homepage">Yankees</a> in 2009, have only trailed at any point in 2 out of 8 series, and only played behind in a series in 8 of 38 games.</div>
<div>That said, the Phillies are no slouches when dealing with pressure situations. They have an even 5-5 record when tied or trailing in a series, have extended the two series in which they faced elimination, and they have a 6-1 record closing out series. Their only smudge is an 0-2 record in game 6’s.</div>
<div>Those are all very exciting numbers, but the only numbers that really matter now are 2 <a class="zem_slink" title="World Series" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series" rel="wikipedia">World Championship</a>, 11 more <a class="zem_slink" title="Win–loss record" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win%E2%80%93loss_record" rel="wikipedia">wins</a>, and 1 more parade.</div>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=9f6c3546-db7c-430f-81a4-194bc9a04f51" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Analyzing Phillies in the Playoffs " /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Analyzing+Phillies+in+the+Playoffs+" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/01/analyzing-phillies-in-the-playoffs/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Importance of Kendrick and Worley to the Phillies</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/09/26/the-importance-of-kendrick-and-worley-to-the-phillies/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/09/26/the-importance-of-kendrick-and-worley-to-the-phillies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Sep 2011 22:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Utley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earned run average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Kendrick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lehigh Valley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roy Oswalt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vance Worley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=6583</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Phillies clinched the division with 12 games left and should still (we hope) have the most wins ever for the franchise. &#160; Now imagine where they would be without Kyle Kendrick or Vance Worley. &#160; Kendrick and Worley&#8217;s contributions to this Phillies team aren&#8217;t just nice stories; they changed the entire complexion of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_6584" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 608px"><a href="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Kyle-Kendrick-Vance-Worley.jpeg"><img class="size-full wp-image-6584" title="Kyle Kendrick-Vance Worley" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Kyle-Kendrick-Vance-Worley.jpeg" alt="" width="598" height="322" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Image taken from Phillies Sport Daily</p></div>
<p>The Phillies clinched the division with 12 games left and should still (we hope) have the most wins ever for the franchise.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Now imagine where they would be without <a class="zem_slink" title="Kyle Kendrick" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyle_Kendrick" rel="wikipedia">Kyle Kendrick</a> or <a class="zem_slink" title="Vance Worley" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vance_Worley" rel="wikipedia">Vance Worley</a>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Kendrick and Worley&#8217;s contributions to this Phillies team aren&#8217;t just nice stories; they changed the entire complexion of the Phillies season. Worley and Kendrick combined for a 16-6 record and a 3.01 <a class="zem_slink" title="Earned run average" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run_average" rel="wikipedia">ERA</a> as starters. Think about that for a second. That is a 3.07 ERA for the FOURTH AND FIFTH STARTERS. Most teams would kill to get that ERA for their TOP starters.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The numbers are drastically different from the 2010 campaign where the Phils’ fours and fives went 22-19 with a 4.56 ERA, a difference of 1.55 points. Just taking the winning percentage alone, the Phillies would have 4 less wins. To put that in perspective, 4 less games at the all-star break would have put the Phillies 1 game back of the Braves.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><span style="color: #ff0000;">Worley’s importance</span></h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The impact of Vance Worley runs much deeper than just four games when you consider the timing of his arrival. When Worley made his first start for the Phillies on April 29th, <a class="zem_slink" title="Roy Oswalt" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Oswalt" rel="wikipedia">Oswalt</a> had just gone to the DL and <a class="zem_slink" title="Chase Utley" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chase_Utley" rel="wikipedia">Chase Utley</a> was still nearly a month away from joining the squad. Having now lost one of their aces, the Phillies were not hitting, had no idea if and when Utley would ever return and had a mess on their hands in right field. The Phillies needed a morale booster desperately. Enter Vance Worley and the story begins.</p>
<p>After getting shipped to <a class="zem_slink" title="Lehigh Valley" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehigh_Valley" rel="wikipedia">Lehigh Valley</a> upon Oswalt&#8217;s return on May 17th, Worley was brought back again on June 18th when Oswalt returned to the DL. Once again, Vance Worley to the rescue.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><span style="color: #ff0000;">Kendrick’s impact</span></h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>And don&#8217;t lose sight of Kendrick&#8217;s contribution. As a starter in 2011, Kendrick is 5-4 with a 3.21 ERA. After his Jekyl and Hyde performance in 2010, Kendrick has been rock solid this season, giving his team a chance to win each time he takes the mound. He bounces around from starter to reliever on a daily basis and never complains. Kyle simply takes the ball and does his job. Even the danger of living with a pregnant wife didn’t effect him.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><span style="color: #ff0000;">Life without Worley and Kendrick</span></h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>There’s no doubt the Phillies would have made the playoffs with or without Kendrick and Worley. But the Phils would certainly have had a lot less rest without them. And rest might be the most important thing for an old <a class="zem_slink" title="Philadelphia Phillies" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Phillies" rel="wikipedia">Philadelphia Phillies</a> team entering the playoffs…</p>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=55337948-6a52-4ce1-9a1a-2048910ddd66" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for The Importance of Kendrick and Worley to the Phillies" /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+The+Importance+of+Kendrick+and+Worley+to+the+Phillies" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/09/26/the-importance-of-kendrick-and-worley-to-the-phillies/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Who can Phillies least afford to lose: Rollins, Utley, or Howard?</title>
		<link>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/09/02/who-can-phillies-least-afford-to-lose-rollins-utley-or-howard/</link>
		<comments>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/09/02/who-can-phillies-least-afford-to-lose-rollins-utley-or-howard/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2011 11:00:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflections on the Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bobby Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charlie Manuel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chase Utley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Rollins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Run batted in]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Howard]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://baseballreflections.com/?p=6390</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The injury bug has infected practically anything wearing a Phillies uniform this season. Rollins is the 11th player to join a DL club that includes 5 position players, 3 starters, and 3 relievers. Heck, even the Phanatic got knocked on his keester this year. With the best record in baseball and a nice little cushion [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Jimmy-Rollins-744586.jpg" alt="" width="275" height="235" /></div>
<div>The injury bug has infected practically anything wearing a <a class="zem_slink" title="Philadelphia Phillies" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Phillies" rel="wikipedia">Phillies</a> uniform this season. Rollins is the 11th player to join a <a class="zem_slink" title="Deputy Lieutenant" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Lieutenant" rel="wikipedia">DL</a> club that includes 5 position players, 3 starters, and 3 relievers. Heck, even the <a class="zem_slink" title="Phillie Phanatic" href="http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/phi/fan_forum/phanatic.jsp" rel="homepage">Phanatic</a> got knocked on his keester this year. With the best record in baseball and a nice little cushion on the Braves, the Phillies can withstand the storm for now. As with the recent earthquake, the Phillies can consider it little more than mild discomfort.</div>
<p></p>
<div>But we don&#8217;t want injuries when October rolls around, so I started wondering who the Phillies could least live without. Let&#8217;s say the Phillies lose Rollins, Utley, or Howard for the rest of the season and throughout the playoffs (which isn&#8217;t a stretch since all have been hurt at some point). Who can the Phillies afford to lose least?</div>
<p></p>
<div>Let&#8217;s examine each player, case by case.</div>
<p></p>
<div><strong><a class="zem_slink" title="Jimmy Rollins" href="http://www.jimmyrollins.com" rel="homepage">Jimmy Rollins</a></strong></div>
<div>Jimmy Rollins is unquestionably the worst hitter of the three. At this point in his career Rollins has good but not great speed, is a below average hitter, and has limited power. But losing his defense (Rollins has the second best fielding percentage EVER) is a huge loss. Martinez and Valdez have held their own, but they don&#8217;t stabilize the middle of the infield like Jimmy and do not evoke the same trust from Phillies pitchers.</div>
<div>You also lose your leadoff man. Rollins is not, and never has been, a prototypical <a class="zem_slink" title="Leadoff hitter" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadoff_hitter" rel="wikipedia">leadoff hitter</a>, but he is the best candidate to leadoff and he allows Victorino and Polanco to bat where they belong.</div>
<p></p>
<div>Then there is his leadership. There is not one single player in that dugout who is better suited to lead than Rollins. It is impossible to quantify how much of an effect he has on the team, but the Phillies immediately improved the minute Rollins become the unofficial leader after <a class="zem_slink" title="Bobby Abreu" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Abreu" rel="wikipedia">Bobby Abreu</a> was traded in 2006. Since that point the Phillies have a .620 winning percentage. Seems like darn good evidence to me.</div>
<p></p>
<div><strong><a class="zem_slink" title="Chase Utley" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chase_Utley" rel="wikipedia">Chase Utley</a></strong></div>
<div>Think back to when it was possible we might not see Chase Utley at all. It was a bleak time. The team performed well, but everyone knew it would be immeasurably tougher to win in the playoffs.</div>
<p></p>
<div>Number three hitters don&#8217;t grow on trees, and Utley is the perfect #3 hitter. His absence disrupts the entire lineup and removes a huge chunk of the fear in opposing teams.</div>
<p></p>
<div>Offensively, Utley hits for a decent average, can run a little, and can drive the ball well, but is nowhere near Howard in the power category. The drop-off in offense between Utley and Valdez or Martinez is roughly 50 points in average and a bunch of home runs and <a class="zem_slink" title="Run batted in" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_batted_in" rel="wikipedia">RBIs</a>. No doubt it would hurt to lose his bat.</div>
<p></p>
<div>Utley is no better than average at second base, but he works well with Rollins at an extremely important position. Even so, Valdez, Polanco, or Martinez can play at least as well defensively.</div>
<p></p>
<div><strong><a class="zem_slink" title="Ryan Howard" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Howard" rel="wikipedia">Ryan Howard</a></strong></div>
<div>Howard haters see the strikeouts, poor average, and apparent lack of adjustments. But, as they say, &#8220;there is no defense against a home run.&#8221; Removing Howard from the lineup eliminates the one true power threat. Howard doesn&#8217;t average 30+ homers and 120+ RBIs each season by shear luck. Life without Ryan Howard is simply not as good.</div>
<p></p>
<div>However, if there is one position that be filled the easiest, it is 1st base. Utley, Ibanez, or Mayberry could play first base in place of Howard and give <a class="zem_slink" title="Charlie Manuel" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Manuel" rel="wikipedia">Charlie Manuel</a> a lot of flexibility. Mayberry is the obvious choice, and he may actually not be as dramatic a decline offensively as we once thought.</div>
<p></p>
<div><strong>Phils are better without all three? </strong></div>
<p></p>
<div>To get a gauge of how the team plays with and without Rollins, Utley, and Howard, I looked at the Phillies records with and without each player from 2006 through 2011. 2006 was a good starting point since that was the first time all three players started together.</div>
<p></p>
<div>The numbers say the Phillies are better without Rollins, Utley, or Howard. Overall as a team, the Phillies have a .574 winning percentage and an average of 93 wins since 2006. Here is how they perform without Rollins, Utley, and Howard:</div>
<p>
<iframe width='500' height='300' frameborder='0' src='https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AmOZ4YWXSI68dFVWc3VMTnNvTTkxMDZpVmVBVU4xelE&#038;output=html&#038;widget=true'></iframe></p>
<div>The Phillies have the same winning percentage with or without Rollins, but they are better without Utley and WAY better without Howard. I don&#8217;t trust any statistic that suggests the Phillies would be a significantly better team without Ryan Howard, but it does make you think…</div>
<p></p>
<div><strong>The Verdict</strong></div>
<div>Considering their impact on the field, at the plate, and in the clubhouse, as well considering who will replace them, in my mind the Phillies can least afford to lose Jimmy Rollins. I feel like a crazy man even as I write this, but the overall impact on the team might be greater without Rollins.</div>
<p></p>
<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top: 10px; height: 15px;"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" title="Enhanced by Zemanta" href="http://www.zemanta.com/"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" style="border: none; float: right;" src="http://img.zemanta.com/zemified_e.png?x-id=60980971-34e4-4f11-bbc7-6c31b78c29c0" alt="Enhanced by Zemanta" /></a></div>
<p class="buymebeer"><form action="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr" target="paypal" method="post"><input type="hidden" name="cmd" value="_xclick" /><input type="hidden" name="business" value="peter@baseballreflections.com" /><input type="hidden" name="return" value="For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below." /><input type="hidden" name="item_name" value="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal! for Who can Phillies least afford to lose: Rollins, Utley, or Howard?  " /><input type="hidden" name="currency_code" value="USD" /><input type="hidden" name="amount" value="" /><input type="image" src="http://baseballreflections.com/wp-content/plugins/buy-me-beer/icon_cafe.gif" align="left" alt="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" title="Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!" hspace="3" /></form><a href="https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_xclick&amp;business=peter@baseballreflections.com&amp;currency_code=USD&amp;amount=&amp;return=For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win one of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section below.&amp;item_name=Help+support+Baseball+Reflections+and+buy+me+a+coffee+with+PayPal!+for+Who+can+Phillies+least+afford+to+lose:+Rollins,+Utley,+or+Howard?++" target="paypal">Help support Baseball Reflections and buy me a coffee with PayPal!</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://baseballreflections.com/2011/09/02/who-can-phillies-least-afford-to-lose-rollins-utley-or-howard/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

<!-- Served from: baseballreflections.com @ 2012-05-25 18:17:45 by W3 Total Cache -->
