At a recent family meal, I became embroiled in a baseball debate with my uncle. A staunch Yankee fan like myself, he stated that Mariano Rivera was the Yankees’ best pitcher prior to his freak ACL injury, emphasizing Mo’s unparalleled success in the postseason. While I have nothing but respect for the all-time saves leader, I played devil’s advocate, arguing that a good starter like CC Sabathia is worth more to the Bombers.

How can a reliever who throws for a single inning be more valuable than a starter who hurls six, seven, or eight innings? I pointed out. It’s pretty obvious that the guy who pitches more innings will have a bigger say in a game’s decision.

Unfortunately, my logic was lost on him, as he had quickly nodded off on the couch from either close-mindedness or a full stomach. Regardless, it seems that the baseball community continues to overvalue relievers, especially closers. Even with sabermetrics now urging us to think more objectively about America’s pastime, we still fail to recognize the faulty baseball tradition of the closer.

Since the save statistic became official in 1969, teams’ best relievers have been ordered to take the ball with a slim lead in the ninth inning. But does a save situation have the greatest probability of affecting the final score? In an article in “Baseball Between the Numbers” (an excellent book that reevaluates common knowledge in baseball), Keith Woolner suggests that save opportunities have less leverage on a game’s score than other situations for relievers. He concludes that by not using closers (presumably the bullpen’s top reliever) in these higher-leverage situations, teams miss out on nearly 2 wins per season, which clearly has huge ramifications for close wild-card races.

If Woolner’s piece isn’t enough to convince you that closers and saves are flawed constructs, then take a look at the position’s turnover in 2012. As of two weeks ago, 15 teams were no longer using their primary closer in save situations due to injuries, ineffectiveness, and roster moves (ESPN). Even now, several teams continue to flip-flop on who should enter the game in save situations. The White Sox recently had Chris Sale bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, and the Reds’ flamethrower Aroldis Chapman may have grabbed the reins from incumbent Sean Marshall after the latter nearly blew Saturday’s lead against the Yankees.

This year’s “bullpen unrest” only adds to the existing instability of the closer role. With a smaller sample size of innings pitched, relieving is a boom-or-bust endeavor, especially during “high-pressure” ninth innings. One or two mistakes can easily destroy a pitcher’s statistics and bring about his demotion. A fastball hits the dirt with the bases loaded or a curveball hangs to the cleanup hitter, and the manager immediately starts second-guessing his closer’s ability to shut the door. A few mess-ups will have a reliever sentenced to the purgatory of middle relief.

With pitchers either sustaining injuries or performing inconsistently left and right, it may be time to rethink the bullpen, starting with the closer role. The first step would be to get rid of the stigma associated with saves. A three-run lead in the ninth inning is only considered a “high-pressure” situation because we allow ourselves to believe it. In baseball and life, we frequently get swept up in mass psychology, using it as a faulty tool for valuation and analysis. Who says Facebook’s new stock should initially sell for $38 and not $37 or even $27?

Instead of arbitrarily placing importance on minutia, we should see things like the stock market and save opportunities for what they really are. Forget saves and closing, and all of the related stress would evaporate. Honestly, major-league hurlers are incredibly talented, and their ability should trump any mental angst caused by the game’s taboos concerning innings and score.

As a Yankee fan that has watched the same man finish games for 15 years straight, I cannot offer the perfect cure for the league-wide bullpen woes. However, closer volatility this season demonstrates how sorely managers need to reevaluate how and when they employ their relievers. Yes, we’re talking about reinventing the wheel here, but without bold men like Billy Beane and Joe Madden, we would be stuck in the dark ages of RBI totals and ERA. If baseball is Darwinian, then the first team to evolve its bullpen will beat MLB’s natural selection.

Check out Peter Schiller’s article about the Modern Day Use of The Bullpen in Baseball!

Related articles

• Are Closers Overrated? (baseballreflections.com)

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

Justin Verlander (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(1) Justin Verlander regains the number one F12 Rating after pitching his latest masterpiece 7IP/ 2H/ 1ER/ 1BB/ 8K against the Oakland Athletics.  The 2011 American League Cy Young Award winner holds a 31.009 Factor12 Rating.

(2) Gio Gonzalez has dominated opposing hitters in his last seven outings.  The left-hander has pitched 45 IP/ 22H/ 8ER/ 16BB/ 54K.  Gonzalez currently trails the F12 top position by only .06 points.

(3) Brandon Beachy vaults into the number three spot after pitching his first career complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night.  The Atlanta Braves right-hander has posted an MLB best 1.33 ERA.

(4) Zack Greinke has regained his 2009 AL Cy Young form after his first eight starts.  The right-hander makes his first appearance on the Top 5 F12 ranking.

(5) Ryan Dempster is a perfect example of why pitching win totals are overrated.  The veteran right-hander is winless this season despite compiling a 1.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP after six starts.

                       ***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on May 17th:

Related articles

• Factor12 (F12) Rating Leaders: Week 1 (baseballreflections.com)
• Factor 12 Leaders Week 2 (baseballreflections.com)
• Factor 12 Leaders: Week 3 (baseballreflections.com)
• Factor 12 Leaders: Week 4 (baseballreflections.com)
• Factor 12 Leaders: Week 5 (baseballreflections.com)

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

Jered Weaver (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(1) Jered Weaver retains the current top spot on the Factor12 Top12 in 2012 with a 32.589 rating.  The Los Angeles Angels right-hander continues to pitch superb baseball compiling a 1.60 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his first seven starts of the season.

(2) Jake Peavy has regained his 2007 NL Cy Young form.  The Chicago White Sox hurler has pitched outstanding baseball over his first seven starts of the season.  Peavy has thrown 52.33 IP/ 35H/ 11ER/ 7BB/ 44K while posting a 1.89 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

(3) Gio Gonzalez has baffled opposing hitters in his last five starts.  The left-hander has thrown 33 IP/ 13H/ 3ER/ 10BB/ 35K.  Gonzalez would rank higher on the list if not for a poor first start against the Chicago Cubs.

(4) Stephen Strasburg continues to dominate on the mound.  The 23 year-old right-hander has pitched 44IP allowing two home runs, walking ten batters, and striking out an NL-leading fifty-one.  The Washington Nationals ace trails the top spot by just .989 points.

(5) Felix Hernandez continued his dominating start to the 2012 season pitching 8IP/ 1H 0ER/ 2BB/ 9K against the Minnesota Twins.  The 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner holds a 31.195 F12 Rating.

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on May 10th:

Related articles

• Factor 12 Leaders: Week 3 (baseballreflections.com)
• Factor 12 Leaders: Week 4 (baseballreflections.com)

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

(1) Jered Weaver pitched the first no-hitter of his career against the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night.  The Los Angeles Angels right-hander currently holds the top spot on the F12 Top12 in 2012 with a 33.207 rating.

Justin Verlander with burst bubble at Dodger Stadium. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(2) Stephen Strasburg continues to astound the baseball world.  The 23 year-old right-hander has pitched 32IP allowing zero home runs, walking six batters, and striking out thirty-four.  The Washington Nationals ace trails the top spot by just .336 points.

(3) Jake Peavy has regained his 2007 Cy Young form.  The Chicago White Sox right-hander has pitched outstanding baseball over his first five starts of the season.  Peavy has thrown 37.67 IP/ 21H/ 7ER/ 5BB/ 33K while posting a 1.67 ERA and 0.69 WHIP.

(4) Justin Verlander continued his dominating start to the 2012 season pitching 8IP/ 6H 2ER/ 1BB/ 7K against the Kansas City Royals.  The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner holds a 31.541 F12 Rating.

(5) Gio Gonzalez has baffled opposing hitters in his last four starts.  The left-hander has thrown 26 IP/ 9H/ 2ER/ 9BB/ 28K.  If not for a below average first start of the season against the Chicago Cubs, Gonzalez would be ranked higher on the list.

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on May 4th:

Related articles

• Factor 12 Leaders: Week 3 (baseballreflections.com)
• Phillies Vs: Nationals: Stephen Strasburg Starts Series Opener Against Division Rivals (dc.sbnation.com)
• Jered Weaver pitches no-hitter in Angels’ 9-0 win over Twins (abclocal.go.com)
• Healthy Peavy is blessed with new perspective (mlb.mlb.com)

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

(1) Justin Verlander continued his dominating start to the 2012 season pitching 6IP/ 4H 0ER/ 3BB/ 8K against the Texas Rangers.  The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner currently holds the number one position on the F12 Rating list with a 33.341 or 32.6 percent above league average.

(2) Kyle Lohse holds steady in the second position.  The St. Louis Cardinals’ right-hander has pitched outstanding baseball over his first four starts of the season.  Lohse has thrown 27.33 IP/ 16H/ 3ER/ 2BB/ 16K while sporting a 0.99 ERA.

(3) Gio Gonzalez has dominated opposing hitters in his last three starts.  The left-hander has thrown 20 IP/ 6H/ 0ER/ 4BB/ 21K.  If not for a sub par outing in his first start of the season against the Chicago Cubs, Gonzalez would be the current Factor12 leader.

(4) Stephen Strasburg continues to amaze the baseball world.  The 23 year-old right-hander has pitched 25IP allowing zero home runs, walking six batters, and striking out a batter per inning.  The sky is the limit for the Washington Nationals ace.

(5) Duane Below is the most surprising entry to the F12 Top12 in 2012.  The Detroit Tigers left-hander makes the top 5 edging out Jake Peavy with an impressive pitching line of 12IP/ 7H/ 0ER/ 0BB/ 9K.  However, pitchers completing less than the average yearly innings (i.e. 12.61 in 2012) will have their F12 Rating weighed by the percentage of innings completed in relation to league average.

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on April 26th

Related articles

• Factor 12 Leaders Week 2 (baseballreflections.com)
• Factor12 (F12) Rating Leaders: Week 1 (baseballreflections.com)
• Introducing The Factor12 Rating (baseballreflections.com)

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

(1) Justin Verlander continued his dominating start to the 2012 season by pitching a complete game win against the Kansas City Royals.  The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner hurled 9IP / 7H / 2ER / 2BB / 9K.  Verlander currently holds the number one position on the F12 Rating list with a 34.148 or .349 percent above league average.

(2) Kyle Lohse is the most surprising entry to the Factor12 Top in 2012.  The St. Louis Cardinals’ right-hander has pitched superb baseball over his first three starts of the season.  Lohse has thrown 20.33 IP/ 10H/ 2ER/ 2BB/ 11K while sporting a 0.89 ERA.

(3) Matt Cain has been utterly dominant over his last two starts.  The right-hander has thrown 18 IP/ 3H/ 0ER/ 1BB/ 15K.  If not for a sub par outing in his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cain would be the current Factor12 leader.

(4) Aroldis Chapman was the reigning F12 leader after Week 1.  The left-hander continues to dominate the opposition by posting 8IP/ 3H/ 0ER/ 0BB/ 15K.  However, pitchers completing less than the average yearly innings (i.e. 9.12 in 2012) will have their F12 Rating weighed by the percentage of innings completed in relation to league average.

(5) Felix Hernandez rounds out the top five after posting an amazing performance against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night.  The right-hander tossed 8IP/ 5H/ 0ER/ 1BB/ 12K throwing 126 pitches.  “The King” appears to be rounding into mid-season form.

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on April 20th:

***The Factor12 Top 12 in 2012 through games on April 12th:

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

F12 consists of the following twelve statistics incorporating every aspect of pitching.

Innings Pitched (IP); Strikeouts Minus Walks (SO-BB); Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP); Earned Run Average (ERA); Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP); Home Runs per 9 innings (HR/9); Walks per 9 innings (BB/9); Strikeouts per 9 innings (SO/9); Opponents Batting Average (OBA); Opponents On-Base Average (OOBA); Opponents Slugging Average (OSLG); Modified Base-Out Percentage (MBOP) has been adjusted to include wild pitches and balks.

The traditional strikeout statistic places too much value on a pitcher’s ability to retire a hitter via strikes.  In fact, strikeouts minus walks differential illustrates a clearer image of a pitcher’s true dominance over hitters and mastery of the strike zone.  In 1974, Nolan Ryan recorded a whopping 367 strikeouts while issuing a staggering 202 walks producing a 165 SO-BB differential.  Last season, Clayton Kershaw amassed 248 strikeouts and allowed only 54 walks equaling a 194 SO-BB differential.  On first glance, Ryan appears to be more dominant.  However, Kershaw was far superior in controlling the strike zone.

F12 produces a numeric total value using the percentage difference equation for the ten pre-defined ratio categories.  Each pitcher is ranked according to league average performance using 2.000 as the baseline.  Categories have a maximum value of 4.000 and a minimum of 0.001.

Percentage difference equals the absolute value of the change in value, divided by the average of the 2 numbers, all multiplied by 100.  To illustrate, the average MLB pitcher compiled a 3.94 ERA in 2011.  Clayton Kershaw finished his Cy Young campaign with a 2.28 ERA: =((3.94-2.28)/((2.28+3.94)/2))*100.  The Factor12 Method adds: /100+2 to utilize an easy number less than, greater than, or equal to 2.000.  As a result, Kershaw received a 2.536 F12 value for ERA last season.

The Innings Pitched (IP) and Strikeout Minus Walks (SO-BB) categories utilize a percentage change formula, which does not contain a fixed range.  Percentage change represents the relative change between the old value and the new one.  For example, the average MLB pitcher totaled 65.75 innings pitched in 2011.  Clayton Kershaw compiled 233.33 innings pitched: =((233.33-65.75)/65.75)*100.  The Factor12 Method adds: /100+2 and Kershaw earned a 4.549 value for IP last season.

A pitcher’s F12 is the sum of the percentage difference/change value of the twelve statistical categories.  The league average performance is 24.000 and a minimum of 0.001.  Pitchers recording zero innings pitched will receive a 0.000 F12 Rating.  Elite pitchers will accumulate a 30.000+ seasonal rating.

Pitchers completing less than the average yearly innings (i.e. 65.75 in 2011) will have their F12 Rating weighed by the percentage of innings completed in relation to the league average (i.e. Sergio Romo 48 IP/65.75).  This adjustment enables starting pitchers and relievers to be compared together based on different workloads for the season.

Factor12 rates yearly performance, with the potential for future projections.  Daily updates will be available during the 2012 season to quantify every pitcher in Major League Baseball using F12 on 60ft6in.com.

Josh Robbins is a Video-Journalist and Baseball Historian living in Gilbert, Arizona.  In 2010, he earned a Master’s Degree in Sport Management from CSU-Long Beach.  From June 16 to July 11, 2008, he watched a game in all 30 MLB stadiums in a world record 26 days by car.  Please email Josh at robbinsjosh@hotmail.com or visit 60ft6in.com for more information about the Factor12 Rating.

What does the Factor12 Rating Really Mean?

As previously defined, the Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers on 60ft6in.com.

In basic terms, F12 is a rating that utilizes all aspects of pitching.  It produces a number on a scale of 0.000-infinity (theoretically), where the average pitcher’s value is 24.000.

Justin Verlander opened the season at Comerica Park and dominated the Boston Red Sox hitters for eight innings.  8IP/ 2H/ 0R/ 1BB/ 7K or F12 Rating: 38.907

Through April 7th: 137 pitchers appeared in a MLB game while compiling 351.67 innings pitched.  As a result, the average pitcher has thrown 2.57 IP in 2012 (351.67/137)

Yet, what does the 38.907 really mean?

The IP and SO-BB categories do not use a fixed range (0.001-4.000).

So, it is possible to accumulate more than 4 points.

The ten ratio statistics do use a fixed range (0.001-4.000).

**The F12 Rating is simply the twelve stats added together.

**The F12 AVG is (F12 Rating minus 24.000).

**F12 can be viewed as the percentage difference for each pitcher above or below actual MLB league average performance (F12%>AVG).

Look for the first week F12 Rating stats later today!

Photo taken from Google Images

When the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano last year to a three year $35 million contract, it raised an interesting question: do productive set-up men deserve as much pay as closers? Traditionally, the resounding answer has been “no”, as most believe there is some intrinsic value in a closer that no set-up man could ever approach. But are closers really that much more valuable than an effective set-up man? I would argue the contrary. Table 1 shows the top relievers in baseball last year, in terms of WPA. Saves and innings pitched are also included as a point of reference.

WPA (win probability added) approximates how many wins a player contributed to his team over the course of a season. It takes the win expectancy before and after each batter a reliever faces, calculates the differences, and adds them all together over the course of a season. For instance, if David Robertson is called in with the bases load, no outs, and a slim lead, the Yankees win expectancy may only be .500. If he manages to get out of the inning without letting in any runs, maintaining the lead, the Yankees may now have a win expectancy of .850. In this circumstance, Robertson would be awarded .350 WPA.

Referring back to the chart, one notices that the top ten relievers in WPA are split evenly between closers and other relievers. Tyler Clippard, a middle reliever, actually accumulated the highest WPA last season. This was, in part, due to his high inning count, but also his effectiveness in those innings. Not all outs and innings are equally important, but clearly any inning pitched is valuable to a player’s team. Every inning pitched relieves other starters and relievers on the team, so there is an additional value to pitching the extra innings. In this group, non-closers averaged approximately nine more innings than the closers did.  The average WPA for the non-closers was 4.098, while the WPA of the closers was only 3.802. So taking the top relievers from the league, it appears that closers are actually less valuable to their teams than an affective set-up reliever in terms of innings and WPA.

This is not to say that closers are, on average, inferior to other relievers; to the contrary, I would say closers are typically the most skilled relievers on their teams. The problem exists in the way managers choose to use their relievers, saving their supposed best relievers for the ninth inning only. If Craig Kimbrel “won” the closing job out of spring training, then why did the Braves decide to pitch Johnny Venters 11 more innings? There is a glaring flaw in the system where teams manage their bullpens in a way that does not optimize the innings that their “best” reliever pitches.

So when the Yankees signed Soriano last year, with the intention of making him their set-up man, it was not necessarily the wrong move. Granted, Soriano underperformed horribly but if he had performed at the level he had in 2010, this time in a set-up role, he would have been more valuable to the Yankees than Mariano Rivera. A fundamental shift needs to take place in baseball, either with the way managers handle closers, or the way owners pay their relievers. With the increased focus on advanced statistics in management and scouting, this shift may occur sooner than expected.

Works Cited:

Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball.Baseball Info Solutions. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://www.fangraphs.com/>.

Photo taken via Google Images

Though advanced statistics attempt to objectively tell you who the best players are, the winner of the MVP award is ultimately up to the sports writers that vote, and which statistics they tend to favor. Therefore, we must first determine which statistics define an MVP.  Since the general consensus of baseball writers changes over time, only the last 5 MVP award winners from each league should be used as evidence.Table 1 shows the MVP award winners for each league over the last five seasons, and their league rank in each of the major standard statistics and WAR (Baseball Reference.com).

Before analyzing this data, a few adjustments must be made. Obviously, Verlander is a pitcher, unlike the others on this list; unless a pitcher manages to win the MVP award next year (the last pitcher to win one prior to Verlander was Eckersley in 1992), Verlander should be disregarded. Also Dustin Pedroia and Jimmy Rollins are statistical outliers in almost every category because they were not power hitters. Typically, MVP candidates are power-hitters so for the purpose of focusing on the right statistics, these two will be eliminated from the chart as well. Table 2 includes the adjustments.

With the new data set, some very clear patterns are evident. Quite clearly, every single one of these power-hitting MVPs from the last five years led the league in both SLG and OPS. Essentially, it appears as though the award will go to the winner of these two categories, barring some unforeseen pitching or non-power-hitting candidate. Interestingly, the player with the highest WAR in his respective league rarely won the award, showing that sports writers do not have complete confidence in this Sabermetric statistic. If writers truly believed this was a perfect statistical measurement of a player’s worth, then the award would go to the leader in this category every year. Now that we know sports writers tend to favor SLG and OPS, the next logical step is to predict who will lead the league in these statistics in 2012. OPS+ adjusts a player’s OPS to variables that could have proved favorable or unfavorable to him over the course of the season, and sets it to a 100 scale (100 is league average). Table 3 shows last year’s leaders in OPS+ in their respective leagues.

*moved from NL to AL

Most of next year’s candidates can be taken directly from this list. Suprisingly, Pujols is nowhere to be found on this list, but with an average OPS of 1.075 in the three seasons prior to last, he cannot be counted out.  Whether Pujols’s underproduction was a result of aging or simply an “off-year” is hard to know for sure. Pujols, like Fielder will be moving from the NL to the AL.

Image via Wikipedia

With the given information, my AL choices can be narrowed down to the 5 players I feel are most likely to lead the league in OPS: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, and Albert Pujols. It is hard to say how Pujols and Fielder will adjust to their new league, but both happen to be moving to slightly easier hitters’ parks (based on rotoworld park factors). Both, however, will need to adjust to the competition in the AL, which may hurt their statistics initially. Fielder will certainly benefit from Cabrera hitting in front of him, as Cabrera posted an outstanding .448 OBP, an astonishing .051 higher than Braun; however, Fielder’s averages with runners on base in his career are almost identical to his averages with the bases empty. As a result, Fielder’s SLG and OPS should not see a marked improvement. Though Pujols has inarguably been the best player in baseball over the last 5 years, his line drive rate has dipped below his career average in his last three seasons; as a result, his batting average finally dropped below .300 for the first time in his career.  His walk rate also fell an astonishing 3.7% below his career average, lower than it has ever been.  Sadly enough, Pujols might be past his prime, and his numbers should stay about where they were last season. Gonzalez is undoubtedly a great player, but he experienced a ridiculously high .380 BABIP last season, which was .058 higher than his career average. This could be due, in part, to the friendlier dimensions of Fenway or “lineup protection” but a .058 spike is too significant to have not involved some luck. A return to normalcy in BABIP will ultimately lower Gonzalez’s batting average, thus lowering his OBP and OPS in the process. Finally, that leaves only Miguel Cabrera and the enigmatic Jose Bautista. Though I firmly believed that Jose Bautista should have won the MVP last season, I have to give the edge to Cabrera. Bautista’s league leading OPS was due, in large part, to an absurdly productive first few months of the season. He posted an OPS of 1.170 in the first half and a .896 in the second, as he came down to earth. Bautista is an excellent baseball player, and one of my favorites, but he is incapable of keeping up the level of play that he showed the MLB in the first half of last season. And finally there is Miguel Cabrera, in my opinion, the best hitter in Major League Baseball. Since (ostensibly) overcoming his alcoholism two seasons ago,Cabrera has been a statistical monster.Over the last two seasons, Cabrera has averaged an OPS of 1.038 and has walked more than he has struck out, posting a BB/K of 1.21 (.16 higher than Pujols).With the Tigers poised to dominate the Central, Fielder coming to Detroit, and Cabrera entering his age-29-season, everything seems ideal for another solid campaign.Expect Cabrera to be as good, if not, better than he was last season and win the AL MVP award in 2012.

In the National League, the candidates are slightly less appealing. With Braun already out for 50 games and two of the best players (Pujols and Fielder) switching leagues, the National League MVP candidates are slim. Kemp and Votto seem like obvious candidates, and Mike Stanton and Justin Upton could certainly contend. Kemp was nothing short of amazing last season, as he produced throughout every statistical category while playing an offensively deficient position. Though he is too talented to call last year an anomaly, the advanced statistics suggest otherwise. His BABIP, like Gonzalez’s, was extremely high. The .380 mark he achieved last season was .028 points above his career average, but he did not switch ballparks or lineups as Gonzalez did; there are no explanations for the sudden increase beyond pure luck. His 23.1% K% was right around his career 23.4% average and his line-drive rate only rose slightly, so neither suffices to explain the spike in BABIP and batting average. I expect a decrease in Kemp’s SLG and OPS next season as his BABIP returns to where it should be. Mike Stanton may be the most powerful hitter in baseball. With an ISO of .275, he was first in the NL last season, and .013 higher than the next logical NL MVP candidate next season (Kemp). Having Reyes and a productive Hanley Ramirez batting in front of him will certainly improve Stanton’s statistics, as he will come to the plate with runners on base more often; however, he actually batted .048 lower with runners on base last year than he did when the bases were empty. Confusingly, he actually struck out 3.7% less in these situations, so I expect to see his luck to improve with runners on base. Stanton, however, has an embarrassing .42 BB/K ratio, that will make it hard for him to accumulate a tremendous OPS next season, even if he manages to hit 45 homeruns. Justin Upton, unfortunately, has the same problem, with a .47 BB/K last season. These two hitters simply strikeout too often and walk too little to improve to MVP status at this point in their careers; both are young, however, and will definitely contend in the foreseeable future.  Finally we are left with Votto, who, with the sudden exodus of the NL’s best hitters, (Pujols, Fielder, Braun-ish) may now be the best hitter in his league. With a lifetime OPS of .955 and unquestionable consistency over the last few seasons, Votto is the most likely candidate. His .85 BB/K last year was markedly better than the previously mentioned candidates and there is no reason to believe we will see a dip in his batting average as his .349 BABIP last year was actually below his career average. A .950+ OPS next season, along with plenty of standard and advanced statistics to accompany it, should be more than enough to win the NL MVP award.

Works Cited:

Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball.Baseball Info Solutions. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://www.fangraphs.com/>.

Baseball-Reference.com – Major League Baseball Statistics and History.Baseball Info Solutions. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://www.baseball-reference.com/>.

“MLB on Yahoo! Sports – News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games.” Yahoo! Sports – Sports News, Scores, Rumors, Fantasy Games, and More.ABC News Network. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb;_ylt=AoUOlYeYlAhhl_Z1gncOJOw5nYcB>.

Gleeman, Aaron. “ESPN and RotoWorld Park Factors.” Advanced Fantasy Baseball.Rotoworld. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://www.advancedfantasybaseball.com/2009/01/espn-and-rotoworld-park-factors.html>.