Photo of Dan Duquette taken from Google Images

The Dan Duquette era in Baltimore has started with a collective yawn among the orange and black clad faithful.  Duquette said all the right things in his introductory press conference about building the farm system, increasing the team’s International scouting presence, and generally upgrading the talent level across the organization.  Perhaps it’s unfair to judge Duquette’s clearly long range goals after less than two months but the Orioles do have a season to play in a few months and several gaping holes left on an already unspectacular roster.

Baltimore stills needs an everyday third baseman, assuming Mark Reynolds stays at first.  The internal options at third are the defensively challenged Chris Davis and 26 year old rookie Matt Antonelli who is a second baseman by trade.  Former prospect Josh Bell has been so overmatched in his stints in Baltimore that he shouldn’t be counted on as more than organizational filler at this point.   Baltimore selected Cubs minor leaguer Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 draft.  Flaherty has some power but has struggled to play third in the minors.  He could get a look at the hot corner in Spring Training.  There are no reliable third base options on the free agent market so any answer will have to come through a trade or one of the options mentioned above.

The Orioles also need a second baseman.  The status of two time All Star Brian Roberts is still unclear.  Roberts missed the last four months of the 2011 season with post concussion symptoms.  Roberts also missed over 100 games in 2010 and can no longer be considered a regular contributor despite the $20 million he’s owed over the next two seasons.  Baltimore’s options at second base include the aforementioned Antonelli, Roberts, Robert Andino and prospect Ryan Adams.  Andino filled in admirably in Roberts’ absence last season but he is best suited for a super utility role.

While second and third base are huge question marks, the Orioles biggest area of need remains starting pitching.  Former GM Andy MacPhail‘s mantra of “Grow the arms, buy the bats” was a colossal flop.  Now it’s up to Duquette to sort out the mess and come up with a new slogan.  The Orioles have added two potential starters this offseason though neither has garnered much faith among the fan base.  Duquette traded for former Oakland starter Dana Eveland during the Winter Meetings.  Eveland spent most of the 2011 season with the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate but did make a few starts for LA and was a likely non-tender candidate.  He should join once promising prospects Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen and Jake Arrieta for a spot at the back end of the Orioles rotation.  The other starter added by Duquette is Japanese lefty Tsuyoshi Wada, a 30 year old control artist likened to Jamie Moyer.  Wada reportedly tops out at around 89 mph with his fastball.  He exhibited excellent control during his tenure in Japan.  It will be interesting to see how he fares in the AL East.  In addition to Wada the Orioles have been rumored to have interest in two other Japanese free agent pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Hisashi Iwakuma.  If Duquette is able to land another Japanese starter perhaps he can copyright “Import the arms, buy the bats.”  The only thing the Orioles grow in abundance is fan unrest.

Duquette was once able to bring in talent like Pedro when he was with the Red Sox. How will he do with Baltimore?

November was an eventful month for the Baltimore Orioles.  The team’s clumsy, haphazard search for a new General Manager concluded with Baltimore taking former Red Sox front man Dan Duquette out of mothballs.  Duquette built half a championship team in Boston before he was kicked to the curb to make way for whiz kid Theo Epstein nearly a decade ago.  Frankly, the Orioles are probably lucky to have landed someone with as much experience and past success as Duquette.  Most of the young up and comers around baseball’s front offices turn downed the Orioles with Toronto Assistant GM Tony LaCava apparently leaving Baltimore at the altar.

Now that Duquette has the job he has the unenviable task of fixing the Orioles two biggest ongoing problems: lack of pitching depth and a chronically broken player development system.  Actual, the Orioles biggest problem sits in the owner’s box and signs Duquette’s checks, but that’s another concern in itself.  Time will tell if Duquette has the authority to truly fix the Orioles.  His predecessors all spoke of returning the Orioles to glory and we’ve seen how those efforts have turned out.

Duquette’s first move as GM was a bit of a head scratcher.  He signed minor league infielder Matt Antonelli to a major league contract.  Antonelli was once a top prospect in the Padres system before injuries derailed his career.  He has only 65 Major League plate appearances, all with the 2008 Padres, to his credit.  He missed most of the 2009 and 2010 seasons due to injury before bouncing back to post a .853 OPS for Syracuse of the International League last season.  While the major league deal for a 26 year old career minor league seems rather odd, Antonelli does give the Orioles another option at second base to go along with the oft-injured Brian Roberts, Robert Andino and prospect Ryan Adams.  He also reportedly could be in consideration for playing time at third base.

For years the Orioles have been criticized for their lack of activity in acquiring talent from the International market.  Duquette has moved quickly to rectify that problem as the Orioles are reportedly close to a deal with Korean pitcher Chong Tae-Hyon.  He is reportedly a submarine style right hander who could help bolster the Orioles beleaguered bullpen.  He would probably be the fourth righty in the pen after Kevin Gregg, Jim Johnson and Pedro Strop.  There is speculation that Johnson could be moved to the rotation placing even more importance on Chong’s potential addition.

The Orioles have also reportedly signed 17 year old Venezuelan right hander Yeizer Marrugo to a contract with a $120k bonus.  Marrugo may not help the Orioles at the Major League level for years, if at all, but the fact that Baltimore is actively signing International talent in the first few weeks of Duquette’s reign is a significant shift in philosophy from the Andy MacPhail era.

I don’t expect the Orioles to be particularly active in the free agent market.  Duquette has essentially said that fans shouldn’t expect any major free agent additions.  It is more likely that Duquette will approach building the team’s depth through trades, minor league free agents, perhaps some additional Asian imports, and repairing the farm system.  All of that probably means another disappointing season in 2012, but hopefully a deeper farm system and improved long term prospects.  When you’ve been terrible for over a decade there are simply no quick fixes.

The Baltimore Orioles wrapped up another disappointing season a few weeks ago. 

The team did end the season on a high note as they posted a winning record (15-13) in September. The most memorable moment of the year occurred on the season’s last play as Robert Andino‘s sinking liner to left evaded Carl Crawford‘s glove and knocked the Red Sox out of the playoffs.

The team has much work to do in preparation for the 2012 season, beginning with the hiring of a new general manager to replace the departing Andy MacPhail (above). In MacPhail’s four seasons in Baltimore the club’s on field performance didn’t improve, but I do think he did some things that will prove to be positives for the organization in the long run. The creation of a true spring training site in Sarasota
solves an organizational problem that existed for far too long. The ability to have all of the players, both major and minor leaguers, in one spring location is a positive step. The fact that it took nearly 20 years to happen is ridiculous, but that’s too often how things are done with the Orioles. MacPhail also brought in potential cornerstone players in Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy, and allowed the club to begin drafting and signing overslot players in the June draft.

The search for MacPhail’s replacement is under way. Buck Showalter is expected to have a great deal of influence in the hiring process. It doesn’t seem like a great idea to me to have the field manager essentially hiring his boss, and it will clearly create a rather strange hybrid management structure in the Orioles baseball operations, but again Peter Angelos‘ Orioles operate a little differently than other clubs. The search seems to be focused on established executives like Jerry DiPoto, Tony LaCava, Al Avila and potentially Jerry Hunsicker or J.P. Ricciardi.

The Orioles have seven players participating in the Arizona Fall League. The list of names doesn’t include any of the club’s top prospects. The Orioles seem to be using the AFL as a chance to sort out some potential 2012 bullpen options in Steve Johnson and Cole McCurry. Joe Mahoney is in Arizona trying to make up for time lost due to injury this season. Mahoney played just 88 games in 2011. He was impressive when healthy as he posted 11 home runs, 67runs batted in and a .845 OPS in 315 at bats for AA Bowie. All Oriole farmhands are playing for the Mesa Solar Sox.

2011 has been a source of frustration for Roberts and the Orioles.

Coming into the season, the Baltimore Orioles had high expectations on getting the team back to a competing level. With all the key moves the Orioles were hoping this would become reality. Let’s take a look back at the Orioles first half of the season.

First off the Orioles started the season fast and hot, as they would go 6-4 in the first ten games of the season. They would soon cool down; they would go 12-13 in the first month of the season. That’s not too bad of a mark, but that needs to be better to compete.

With the start of May, the Orioles were hoping to win some more games and try and climb in the standings. They would finish the month with a 12-16 mark, as they would have a back and forth fight with winning and losing. After 2 months of the season the Orioles had a 24-29 record not too bad, but still needs some fixing.

Just like in the beginning of the season the Orioles would have the same result in their first 10 games of June (6-4). They would start off hot, but that would cool down, as the Orioles would go 11-14 in the month of June. The Orioles would have a record of 35-43 and would be 8 games under 500 heading into July.

The beginning of July was horrible as they would go 1-9 in the last 10 games before the All-Star Break. The Orioles would have an overall record of 36-52 and would be 12 games under 500, which is not good at all.

The record does not show everything, but it shows a lot. The Orioles would have some key injuries to star players like J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, and Brian Roberts. The Orioles would get back both Hardy and Lee, but would not get their lead-off man back. This does show a reflection in the record.

As the second half of the season is upon us, the Orioles are 2-3 so far after 5 games of the second half. With a 38-55 record, the Orioles look to get this turned around and start winning some more games.

With the talent the Orioles have and with the help of manager Buck Showalter, the Orioles should be able to fix some stuff and get this season back on track. Not saying the Orioles can get this turned and become a contender this season, but I am saying they can finish with a much better record than they have in the past.

So let’s take a seat and watch what the Orioles can accomplish in the second half of the season.

Image taken from Google Images c/o Zimbio

After suffering through an injury-riddled season in 2010, it looks like Brian Roberts will be spending a significant stretch on the sidelines again in 2011 following a serious concussion suffered in mid-May. Though the Orioles’ table-setter isn’t the All-Star he used to be, he is still a crucial part of the Baltimore offense and replacing his production will be a key as the O’s try to stay in contention in the AL East.

Much as it was the case a year ago, a big struggle for the Orioles in 2011 has been scoring runs in a consistent manner. The O’s rank 21^st in the majors in runs scored and have scored three or fewer runs in 25 of their first 51 games.

In an era when run production is down across the entire league, the Orioles must find ways to manufacture runs and try to improve their overall run production. They rank 16^th in team batting average, 19^th in walks, 26^th in stolen bases.

Even when Roberts was in the lineup, the two-time All-Star wasn’t playing at his peak, hitting just .221 with three home runs, 19 RBI and 18 runs scored during his first 39 games.

However, without Roberts the Orioles don’t have a legitimate leadoff hitter capable of regularly getting on base and sparking the offense. Felix Pie and Robert Andino, who have split the leadoff duties in Roberts’ absence, have combined to score only five runs since replacing Roberts as the leadoff hitter.

Baltimore has not scored a run in the first inning of a game since the last game Roberts was in the lineup and scored first in a game only once during the first 11 games of his absence.

These results are not significantly different than a year ago when the Orioles struggled to generate runs in the nearly four months that Roberts was out of the lineup. Baltimore was 29-62 during his absence in 2010 and then went 29-26 in games in which he played over the final two months.

Though Roberts will likely never return to the level that saw him average 100 runs scored every season between 2004 and 2009, he still is a solid veteran and capable table-setter.

However, given his recent lack of durability, it may be time for the Orioles to look for a permanent replacement to Roberts at the top of the lineup.

The O’s are obviously giving Andino a chance to audition while Roberts is on the sideline, but while a solid defensive player, he has shown no indication to be a top-level leadoff man. He has scored just three runs when serving in the leadoff role and in 35 total games so far this season has a .274 average with 11 runs scored and two RBI.

As the Orioles teeter on the edge of contention in the American League East, figuring out how to increase offense at the top of the lineup will be a key to whether they stay in the hunt or fall back during the heat of summer.

After more than a decade of mediocrity and a continual “building for the future” mentality, it appears that the future has finally arrived for the Baltimore Orioles.

Buoyed by the 34-23 (.596) record posted once Buck Showalter became manager in August of last season, the Orioles’ front office decided in the off-season to make moves designed to help the team take immediate steps toward contention in the difficult American League East.

The result is an everyday lineup that is comparable to the other powerhouse lineups in the American League.

For the Orioles in 2011, the key to success will be on the mound where the Orioles are relying on their young crop of talented hurlers to compete against the powerful American League lineups.

Below is a look at the 2011 lineup for the Orioles

Catcher:

After a promising rookie campaign in 2009, catcher Matt Wieters struggled for much of the 2010 campaign and finished with a .249 average, 11 home runs and 55 RBI. He has all the tools to be an All-Star and will look to have a breakout campaign in 2011.

Infield:

Image via Wikipedia

First base was a black hole for the Orioles in 2010, but the position should be in capable hands in 2011 with the acquisition of veteran Derrek Lee.   The three-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star hit .260 with 19 home runs and 80 RBI a year ago. He will be playing in the American League for the first time after a 14-year career terrorizing National League pitchers.

Often you don’t know someone’s true value until they are gone. That was the case for the Orioles last season with second baseman Brian Roberts. Spending the first half of the season without their table-setter, the Orioles had trouble scoring runs and were the worst team in baseball. Though he was never at top form, the return of Roberts in late July coincided with the return to respectability.

Shortstop Cesar Izturis has been a steady defensive performer and occasional offensive threat for the Orioles over the last two seasons. However, the team signed veteran J.J. Hardy in the offseason with the hope that he will provide more offensive spark. If both players remain on the roster, the Orioles should be well positioned at this important position.

Another disappointing position for the Orioles a year ago was third base. They are hopeful that Mark Reynolds, who hit 32 home runs for the Diamondbacks a year ago, can fill the void and give the Orioles another powerful offensive weapon.

Outfield:

Image via Wikipedia

The outfield duo of Nick Markakis (.297 BA, 12 HR, 60 RBI) and Adam Jones (.284, 19, 69) is as solid as any centerfeld and rightfield combo in baseball. Both players struggled when Brian Roberts was out of the lineup because the Orioles were unable to get men on base. However, the additions to the lineup this season should help take offensive pressure off both players.

The third outfield spot will likely be split between Felix Pie and Luke Scott. After struggling with injuries for much of the season, Pie was healthy for most of the second half of 2010 and showed that he could be an everyday fixture in leftfield. Scott hit .284 with a team-high 27 home runs last season and could see time at a variety of spots in 2011.

Designated Hitter:

Newcomer Vladimir Guerrero could be the addition that puts the Orioles lineup over the top. A proven winner, Guerrero has been in the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons and Baltimore is hopeful that he can deliver similar magic for the O’s like what he did for the Texas Rangers a year ago. Now 36-years-old, Guerrero hit .300 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI a year ago.

Starting Pitchers:

It will be left to see if the decision not to bring in a quality veteran to go with the young starting rotation was a smart move or a regrettable one.

Instead, team president Andy MacPhail spent significant money on upgrading the offense and will look for the pitching staff to continue the strides made over the final two months of the 2010 season.

Though veteran Jeremy Guthrie (11-14, 3.83 ERA) is the opening day starter, the success of the Orioles in 2011 will go hand-in-hand with the performance of the young starters in the rotation.

Brian Matusz (10-12, 4.30) showed glimpses of brilliance a year ago and has the ability to be a number one starter.

Brian Bergesen (8-12, 4.98) was never as good in 2010 as he had been during his rookie campaign of 2009. He is a solid control pitcher who puts the ball in play. However, last season he allowed 26 home runs and more than a hit per inning. If he can regain his 2009 form, Bergesen will be a solid third starter.

Both Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.66) and Chris Tillman (2-5, 5.87) are talented hurlers who could become staples of the rotation. If they can harness that talent, the Orioles will have a solid starting staff.

The one veteran brought into the mix is former Oakland A’s All-Star Justin Duchscherer. Primarily a reliever with the A’s before moving into a starters role the last three years, he serves as a backup plan if one of the young guns falters.

Relief Pitchers:

In the bullpen, the Orioles have a number of solid arms led by closer Kevin Gregg. Koji Uehera, Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson and Jason Berken are all solid pitchers who give the Orioles important pitching depth.

The key for the pitchers in 2011 will be for the starters to go deep enough into games that the bullpen isn’t asked to pitch four or more innings per game. That was a big difference after Showalter’s arrival in 2010 as the starters went an extra inning per game and the bullpen was no longer over-burdened on a nightly basis.

If the Orioles can replicate that situation for the entire 2011 season then they should have enough quality arms to contend.

Overall:

There is little doubt that the Orioles will be able to score runs, but the offensive key will be for the top of the lineup to get on base enough to allow the power hitters to drive them home.

The pitching staff is young, but if the glimpse of promise displayed in the final months of the 2010 campaign can be duplicated then the Orioles should post their first winning season since 1997.

Unfortunately, since the Orioles live in the same division as the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, they may end up as the best fourth place team in baseball.

However, while that won’t excite the Orioles’ faithful, the fact that the team is starting a season thinking about this year instead of the future should bring a renewed excitement to Camden Yards.

Photo taken from Google Images

With the recent signings by the New York Yankees of Bartolo Colon and Andruw Jones, the Tampa Bay Rays of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez and the Baltimore Orioles of Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero you have to wonder if these teams realize that it is 2011 and not 2005.
If it were 2005, the impact of these signings would without question make these three contenders the top teams in the division and favorites for the World Series.
In 2005, Bartolo Colon won 21 games for the Anaheim Angels and was named the American League Cy Young Award winner.
In the2005 American League MVP race, Vladimir Guerrero finished third, Manny Ramirez was fourth and Johnny Damon placed 13th.
On the National League side, Andruw Jones placed second while Derrek Lee was third.
Unfortunately as the Yankees, Rays and Orioles look toward 2011, most of these former superstars are years removed from performing at that high level.
That is especially the case for the two new Yankees Jones and Colon.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Since his Cy Young season, Colon has won a grand total of 14 major league games and did not pitch in the majors in 2010. With the retirement of Andy Pettitte and inconsistency of A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes, the Yankees are crossing their fingers that Colon and fellow non-roster invitees Freddy Garcia (third in 2001 Cy Young voting) and Mark Prior (third in 2003 Cy Young voting) can return to past form.
They are also hopeful that at the age of 33, five-time All-Star Andruw Jones still has some pop in his bat. Though expected to serve as the fourth outfielder for the Yankees, the team would certainly like to see him provide another offensive weapon. However, if recent years are any indication, how much pop he has left is questionable. In his final three years with the Atlanta Braves (2005-2007), Jones smashed 118 home runs and drove in 351 runs. In the three seasons since he left Atlanta, Jones has hit a grand total of 39 home runs and driven in 105 runs. He also has gone from being a 10-time Gold Glove fielder to being a part-time outfielder and part-time designated hitter.
But New York is not alone in looking to the past to help save their present.
While the Tampa Bay Rays cut significant salary during the off-season, they still have a solid nucleus that is capable of contending in 2011. For that reason, the addition of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez is hoped to help fill some of the void left by the loss of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena.
Though he is now 37 years old, Damon is still capable of serving as a table setter for the Rays. Last season he played in 145 games for the Tigers and hit .271 while scoring 81 runs. He is no longer a base stealing threat, but he should be a solid addition to the lineup.
It is difficult to predict what the Rays will get out of Ramirez, who will turn 39 on May 30th. Since serving a 50-game suspension for violating the MLB drug policy in 2009, Ramirez hasn’t been the same dominating player that he was for most of his career.
Splitting time between the Dodgers and White Sox in 2010, Ramirez played in only 90 games and hit .298 with nine home runs and 42 RBI.
If he is healthy and motivated in 2011, he could be a huge addition to the lineup. However, if he struggles, Ramirez could become a distraction and have a short tenure with the Rays.
Of the three teams that went back in time looking for help in 2011, the Baltimore Orioles seem to have the best chance of seeing big dividends.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

The 36-year-old Guerrero had a tremendous season in 2010 helping lead the Texas Rangers to the World Series. Though he struggled during the playoffs, his regular season was still tremendous as he hit .300 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI.
If he can come close to a repeat performance in 2011 Guerrero will give the Orioles a much needed run producer in the middle of the lineup and take pressure off the young Baltimore hitters.
A similar statement can be made about the other big signing for the Orioles in first baseman Derrek Lee. The 35-year-old Lee had a solid season in 2010 with 19 home runs, 80 RBI and a .260 average. In 2009 he hit 35 home runs with 111 RBI and a .306 average for the Cubs.
If Lee is able to produce at a level somewhere in between those two seasons, he will be a huge improvement over what the Orioles had at first base a year ago.
Though the Orioles could have used a veteran starting pitcher, signing Guerrero and Lee will certainly help make them even more competitive in 2011 than they were over the final two months of the 2010 season when they went 34-23 under new manager Buck Showalter.
Because it is 2011, instead of 2005, the reality is that all three teams will likely spend the season chasing the only team in the division that spent the offseason signing players actually reaching the peak of their careers, the Boston Red Sox.

Photo of Orioles Manager Buck Showalter by Icon SMI

Buck Showalter has made a great early impression on the Baltimore Orioles during his first weeks on the job already guiding the O’s to more wins in August than they have registered in any previous month this season. As we look toward the long-term future for the Orioles, there are five keys that Showalter will have a chance to evaluate over the final 40 games.

1. Starting pitching – The biggest reason for the turnaround during the month of August has been the performance of the starting pitchers. After barely averaging five innings per outing and posting an ERA above 5 through the first 100 games, the starting pitcher has pitched at least six innings in 15 of the first 18 games for Showalter with an ERA under 3.

The question moving forward is whether Showalter and crew have found the key to pitching success or if at some point the starters will return to their old ways. With three of the five starters in just their first or second season in the majors, the hope is that they are building for long-term success.

Though veteran Kevin Millwood has pitched better in August, if the Orioles hope to make significant improvement in 2011 they will need to add at least one additional proven winning pitcher to the starting rotation.

1. Corner Infield – When the Orioles were the best team in baseball in the early 1970s they had superstars at both third base in Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson and at first base in 1970 league MVP Boog Powell.

In 2010, those two positions are significant weaknesses for the Birds. Showalter will have the next six weeks to see if rookie third baseman Josh Bell can be the long-term answer for the Orioles. So far, Bell has definitely not earned the spot for next season as he is hitting just .216 with no home runs and 4 RBI in 23 games. With the Orioles out of contention it doesn’t hurt to give him a long look. However, if he doesn’t turn things around soon the Orioles will definitely need to address the position in the off season.

At first base, Ty Wiggington has been seeing most of the action lately. Though he earned an All-Star trip, Wiggington has been inconsistent over the last couple months. He has a .252 average with 18 home runs and 61 RBI, but since the All-Star game he has only four home runs and 16 RBI. While Wiggington is a good utility player to have on the squad, if he is the regular first baseman for the Orioles in 2011 they will not be a contender in the American League East.

1. Closer – You get the sense that of all the Orioles auditioning for a spot on the team in 2010, reliever Alfredo Simon is getting a very hard look from Showalter. He has pitched in nine of Showalter’s first 18 games and registered two saves and one blown save. However, since blowing a save against the White Sox on August 9^th, all four of his appearances have been in non-save situations and as early in the game as the seventh inning.

The hard-throwing right-hander has a 3-2 record with 17 saves and 32 strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in 40 appearances since joining the Birds in late April. Though he is 29-years old and has been in professional ball since 1999, Simon has little more than a year of major league experience, is earning $450,000 this season and is not arbitration eligible in 2011. So, I think Showalter is trying to assess if Simon can be a quality set-up man or closer for the O’s in 2011.

1. Leftfield – The Orioles have players in center and rightfield that should be anchors of the team for years to come. However, they have not been able to find the same consistency in leftfield. Entering the season many thought that Nolan Reimold would build on his solid rookie season and join Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in forming one of the best young outfields in the game.

Unfortunately, Reimold struggled from the beginning and was demoted after hitting only .205 with two home runs in 29 games. If he does return to the Orioles it could possibly be at first base instead of in the outfield.

Corey Patterson has had a solid season seeing significant action at the position, but at 30-years-old Patterson makes the team stronger if he is the fourth outfielder and not an everyday player.

The 25-year-old Felix Pie could still become that third regular starter, but injuries have hampered his season. He is hitting .284 with four home runs, 15 RBI and 21 runs scored in 46 games, but will have to put up greater production if he wants to play every day. If he can remain healthy over the final 40 games he should get plenty of chances to prove to Showalter that he deserves a spot in 2011.

Phot of Orioles DH Luke Scott by Icon SMI

1. Designated Hitter – One player who is definitely making the most of his audition for Showalter is Luke Scott. Seeing action primarily as the designated hitter, Scott is hitting .353 with five home runs in the month of August. He has seen some action at both first base and leftfield this season, but has primarily been used as the designated hitter.

Scott is earning $4.05 million in 2010 and is eligible for arbitration in 2011, but is not eligible for free agency until 2013. A good sign of whether the Orioles think they can contend in 2011 could be what they do with Scott. He will likely get another raise, so if they are willing to pay him and not deal him in the off-season it would be an indication that they are looking to make significant improvement in 2011.

The final six weeks should be interesting for the Orioles as they prepare for 2011. Showalter has certainly resuscitated a floundering franchise, but the question remains whether he can keep that momentum over the long term.

Baltimore seems to have components in place to start making major strides, but they will still have to make some big decisions regarding payroll and free agency before they are ready to compete in baseball’s toughest division.

Buck Showalter Photo taken from Google Images

After two months under the guidance of interim manager Juan Samuel, the Baltimore Orioles finally have a permanent captain for their floundering ship with the hiring of Buck Showalter to take over the team beginning on August 3^rd.

After hiring the interim manager to eventually be the permanent manager after each of the last two managerial firings, the former manager of the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Rangers becomes the first Baltimore manager to be hired from outside the organization since Lee Mazzilli in 2004.

Showalter began his coaching career in the New York Yankees organization and became manager in 1992. He led the Yankees to the best record in the American League in the strike shortened 1994 season and in 1995 led them to the first wild card playoff berth.

Despite the success, a deteriorating relationship with Joe Torre led to his dismissal following the 1995 season. The Yankees went on to win the World Series in 1996 and again from 1998-2000.

Hired by the expansion Arizona Diamondbacks in 1996 to serve as their skipper when the team opened play in 1998, he helped craft a roster that won 100 games and reached the playoffs in just their second season. However, a disappointing third place finish in 2000 led to his dismissal after three seasons.

In a repeat of his New York experience, Showalter left a team that went on to win a World Championship (ironically over the Yankees) in the year after his departure.

After moving to television as an analyst for ESPN, Showalter returned to the dugout in 2003 with the Texas Rangers. He led the Rangers to an 89-73 record in his second season, but after consecutive losing campaigns was fired following the 2006 season.

He returned to ESPN and served as a studio analyst until being hired by the Orioles.

Only 54 years old, Showalter has spent 11 years as a major league manager and has an overall career record of 882 and 833 (.514). He was named the American League Manager of the Year in both 1994 and 2004.

Showalter will have his toughest managerial assignment turning around a franchise that has a storied tradition, but has developed a culture of losing over the past decade. Baltimore has not had a winning season since reaching the American League Championship Series in 1997.

The 2010 Orioles have the worst record in baseball with a 31-70 record and have shown only brief glimpses of hope. A four game sweep in Texas the weekend before the All-Star Game has been the brightest highlight for the Orioles in 2010. The team also has demonstrated a surprising propensity for comeback victories and has a 7-3 record in extra inning games.

Hiring Showalter now gives the new manager nearly two months to review and analyze the team as they prepare for 2011. Despite the struggles this season, the team does include a number of talented young players and with the right tutelage could make great strides in a short span.

Unfortunately, as a member of the American League East it is likely that any significant improvement will simply get the team closer to the middle of the pack. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are both built to annually contend and both the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays have developed a bevy of young talent.

So, Showalter will have his work cut out for him. However, he has turned around teams before and should bring a much needed new attitude to the clubhouse as the Birds look to regain respectability.

O's GM & President Andy MacPhail Photo by Icon SMI

Less than two weeks ago, Baltimore Orioles president Andy MacPhail said that the team was in no hurry to hire a new manager because “it’s not like the barn is on fire right now. The players are doing a nice job for Juan [Samuel].”

Over the last two weeks, the Orioles have won just two of 13 games and suddenly there is again reasonable doubt as to whether the Orioles can muster enough victories over the final two months of the season to avoid eclipsing the modern record for baseball futility established when the New York Mets went 40-120 during their inaugural 1962 season.

So, my question to Mr. MacPhail is whether the barn is burning now?

The energy the team showed early in the tenure of interim manager Juan Samuel has disappeared.

Since staging a dramatic comeback on July 20^th to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 11-10 in 13 innings, the Birds have managed just one win in eight games and been outscored 52-20.

Despite some speculation that the hiring of former Yankees, Diamondbacks and Rangers manager Buck Showalter was inevitable, MacPhail doesn’t seem significantly closer to having a permanent manager than he did when firing Dave Trembley nearly two months ago.

As I have written several times before, in my opinion, every day MacPhail waits to hire a full-time manager is another wasted day.

If the Orioles’ manager for 2011 turns out to be Showalter or anyone else who is not currently working as a manager or coach, MacPhail will have wasted significant time that could have been used to evaluate players and set the tone for change that is desperately needed in Baltimore.

While the team president may not be alarmed by the current play of the Orioles, it is obvious that a growing number of Oriole fans are tired of the methodical indifference that seems to be exhibited by MacPhail.

In their recent 10-game home stand that included two weekends of baseball, the Orioles averaged 18,820 fans with only three of those 10 games drawing crowds in excess of 20,000.

For a team and city that has such a great baseball tradition, that is sad and simply not acceptable.

I certainly am not blaming Baltimore fans for voicing their displeasure with the current team by leaving plenty of empty seats at Camden Yards. Considering the current economy and exorbitant cost to attend a professional sporting event, the Orioles are probably lucky to be averaging that many fans.

Of course what has made it worse is that losing is unfortunately no longer a new thing in Baltimore. The 2010 season will mark the 13^th straight losing campaign for the Orioles. And barring a shocking late season turnaround, the Orioles will likely have the worst record during that stretch and have a very good chance of eclipsing the team record for losses in a season set in 1988 when the Orioles went 54-107.

Astute Oriole fans know that team began the season with 21 straight losses. However, that team actually had a better record after 100 games (32-68) than the current Orioles (31-69).

Following that season, the Orioles jettisoned a number of longtime veterans, including future Hall of Famer Eddie Murray, and in 1989 Baltimore surprised the baseball world by contending for the division title into September and finishing with an 87-75 record.

It would be great if the Orioles could repeat that kind of turnaround in 2011, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

In the first place, baseball has dramatically changed over the last 20 years. While every team was generally on a level playing field in those days, we all know that baseball today is setup so that the Red Sox and Yankees are pretty much guaranteed of being contenders every year.

The Orioles have the misfortune of not only being in the same division as both of those teams, but also with two solid teams with lots of young talent in the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays.

That means the Birds play a guaranteed 76 games every year against teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations.

That is a big reason that when Andy MacPhail took over as team president in 2007 he recognized that the answer for the Orioles was not a quick fix.

However, after three years of making moves designed to help the Orioles contend for the long haul, Baltimore is not only nowhere near contending, but they seem to be making steady steps backwards.

The victory total for the Orioles has declined every year since 2004 with no sign of team improvement in any area. In 2009, the Orioles won 64 games while scoring 4.57 runs per game and having a team ERA of 5.15. So far in 2010, the Orioles are scoring 3.61 runs per contest with a team ERA of 5.18.

MacPhail has staked the future of the Orioles on building a stable of young pitching arms designed to give the Birds enough talented pitchers to contend with the Yankees and Red Sox.

So far, that plan has been a complete disaster. The five members of the pitching staff who are 25 or younger have a combined record of 14-34 with a 5.72 ERA.

SP Kevin Millwood Photo by Icon SMI

MacPhail has tried to supplement the staff with inexpensive veterans, but that hasn’t been too successful either. In the last two years, Mark Hendrickson, Koji Uehara and Kevin Millwood have all been brought in with the expectation they would be inning eating starters.

Hendrickson and Uehara are now members of the Baltimore bullpen and Millwood has a 2-10 record with a 5.96 ERA this season.

Though not as prolific as a year ago, the Baltimore offense still has some solid components. However, if the Orioles ever want to become a contender, they must make major upgrades at the pitching position and cannot expect that fix to come from within the minor league system.

What MacPhail doesn’t seem to understand is that this is not the same Baltimore Orioles farm system that produced Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, Storm Davis, Mike Flanagan, Dennis Martinez and Mike Boddicker. Even though the Orioles have been loading up on young arms, there is no guarantee that any of those pitchers will emerge as legitimate major league starters.

The game has also changed quite a bit since the Orioles were producing all those home-grown starters. Of the 11 primary starting pitchers for the Yankees and Red Sox in 2010, only four came up through the minor league system of either organization.

Top teams may have one or two starters who came up from within their organization, but they do not expect the entire staff to be homegrown talent. They supplement the home grown pitchers with top level starters from other teams. Not with aging veterans who are well past their prime.

I have applauded Andy MacPhail for trying to patiently build this team, but at some point he needs to become aggressive and signal to the Orioles, Baltimore fans and the baseball world that the Orioles are ready to win today.

It will take more than hiring a manager to signal that, but it would certainly be a good start. Then Baltimore needs to identify the top five available free agents for 2011 and make a legitimate attempt to add at least two of them to the roster.

Unless significant steps are made to jump start the franchise the cry of every season will be “wait until next year.” Then when “next year” finally arrives (if it ever does) it won’t matter because there will be no one left to care.