NPB SP Yu Darvish image taken from Google Images

The Texas Rangers have been very busy in the last couple of weeks. Right now the Rangers are still trying to negotiate a deal with Yu Darvish but there is a limited amount of information and insight on the negotiations. Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported earlier this week that The Texas Rangers are becoming increasingly optimistic that the deal will get done by the Wednesday, Jan. 18 deadline.

I am sure the Rangers would like to sign Darvish for a “Dice-K” – like contract. Dice-K (Daisuke Matsuzaka) signed a 6-year $52 million contract with the Boston Red Sox six years ago. Times have changed since then, many executives and player’s agents in the league believe that Darvish will sign a 6-year deal closer to $70 million. Time will only tell and that time runs out at 4:00 p.m. central time on Jan. 18^th.

With Spring Training rolling right around the corner, the Rangers have invited 8 players to camp this march. Texas prospects Mike Olt and Tommy Mendonca will both be trying to transition themselves to a new position. Olt, normally a third baseman, will be going into Spring Training as a first baseman as well. Mendonca will try to transition to the catching position. Pitchers Fabio Castilla, Greg Reynolds (acquired in trade with COL), Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers and Ben Snyder along with infielder Greg Miclat were also extended invitations.

Quick Hits

-      Mike Napoli’s and Derek Holland’s contact extension negotiations will be tabled until a later date. With the Ranger’s front office is focusing on Yu Darvish, Mike and Derek are on hold.

-      Reliever Mike Adams recently underwent Hernia surgery, but team officials are confident that he will be ready for opening day.

-      Minor League corner infielder Chad Tracy was traded to Colorado a few days ago for former 1^st round draft pick RHP Greg Reynolds. Reynolds has since been invited to Spring Training.

-      The Rangers have been showing some real interest in veteran OF/1B Brad Hawpe. Hawpe could take some time at 1B as Moreland recovers from his injury.

-      Ticket prices for 2012 have been released; most prices are higher than they have ever been, obviously due to recent success. The construction of Vandergriff Plaza in Center Field is also coming along nicely.

Image taken from Google Images

For the second straight season, the Rangers beat the Tampa Bay Rays to advance to the ALCS.  For the second straight season, their success was largely based on recent player acquisitions.

In 2010, Rangers GM Jon Daniels made several key moves in both the offseason and prior to the trade deadline, including the additions of Colby Lewis, Bengie Molina, Jeff Francoeur, and the biggest splash, Cliff Lee.  Lee and Lewis earned wins in five of Texas’ eight total postseason victories, and Molina and Francoeur had big hits that led to the club’s first ever American League pennant.

Despite the Rangers’ well-publicized failure to retain Lee for 2011 and beyond, the front office remained vigilant.  Daniels resisted the temptation to shell out the nine figures necessary to lure Carl Crawford to his home state, and opted to sign Adrian Beltre away from Boston for $85 million.  When an opportunity arose to jump in on a three way deal with the Angels and Blue Jays, Daniels pounced, landing Mike Napoli in exchange for reliever Frank Francisco.

While Napoli’s addition gave the offense a boost, the loss of Francisco, combined with the transition of Alexi Ogando from set up man to starter left a large hole in the bullpen.  Daniels responded.  The Rangers dealt for two of the top relief options available in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara in July.  Seemingly never satisfied, Daniels didn’t stop there, and dealt for lefty-specialist and former closer Mike Gonzalez.

Fast forward to the 2011 ALDS.  Napoli and Beltre hit six of the team’s eight total home runs and propelled Texas past Tampa Bay by razor thin margins.  The added bullpen depth gave Ron Washington favorable matchups to work with, and Texas held off the Comeback Kids.

It’s easy to look ahead to next year and expect the Rangers to once again have a good team.  It’s easy to wonder what will happen to them if C.J. Wilson departs as a free agent.  It’s also easy to imagine that the front office will respond accordingly, and make the right moves to send the Rangers deep into October again in 2012.  After all, possibly the best acquisition they have ever made was not a player.  The best move in franchise history may have been the chance they took in signing a young and inexperienced general manager named Jon Daniels.

While both National League Divisional Series will be going to a decisive Game 5 tonight, the Tigers and Rangers have each earned a berth to their league’s Championship Series. We’ll take a look at how these two teams match up to try to determine which club will represent the AL in the World Series.

Offense

Each of these clubs featured one of the more prolific offenses in the AL. The Rangers scored the third most runs of any AL team over the course of the season, while the Tigers scored the fourth most. However, the gap between them is larger than that statistic might indicate. The Rangers were the only team that was able to keep up with the big-money clubs in New York and Boston, as their 855 runs were only 20 behind the league-leading Sox. After the Rangers, there’s a large gap, as the Tigers scored 787 runs to finish fourth in the league. Advanced statistics suggest the gap between the teams’ offenses is a little smaller, as the Rangers’ wRC+ of 113 outpaced the Tigers by only 4%.

The Rangers’ offense got big production from some surprising places this year, while several of the players who carried the team to last season’s World Series have taken a step back. The team’s leader in offensive value was catcher Mike Napoli. Napoli spent 2010 splitting time behind the plate in Anaheim with Jeff Mathis. This offseason, Napoli momentarily went to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells, although the deal was more about losing Wells’ massive contract and less about actually acquiring Napoli from the Jays’ perspective. Napoli was sent packing once again almost immediately, this time in exchange for closer Frank Francisco. Napoli has taken advantage of his new opportunity in Texas, putting up a 5.6 WAR in only 113 games through an impressive 178 wRC+. Napoli hit 30 home runs in 432 plate appearances during the regular season. The next lowest PA total for a 30-homer hitter was 525, nearly 100 chances more than Napoli. So, if you picked Napoli to lead the AL in slugging this year, well… I don’t believe you.

I discussed Ian Kinsler in my AL MVP post, but he deserves another mention, as he’s been incredibly valuable on both sides of the ball and had the most prolific offensive year of his career by a long shot. His 7.7 WAR was the best mark on the club. Adrian Beltre’s 5.7 WAR led the team’s position players other than Kinsler, and his 134 wRC+ was second only to Napoli. In his first season in Texas, Beltre earned the first installment of his big multiyear deal signed last offseason and then some, putting up big offensive numbers and playing the premium defense at the hot corner we’ve come to expect from him. It’s rare that 4.2 WAR is considered a letdown, but Josh Hamilton produced less than half as much this season as his MVP campaign in 2010. While his numbers may not make him an MVP candidate again this year, he’s certainly a dangerous hitter. After a season of unrest between Michael Young and his front office that ended with him requesting a trade, Young gave the Rangers some serious reasons to retain him. Young gave the team positional flexibility and another big bat in their deep, potent lineup. The Rangers were the only team in baseball with five players who produced 20 or more runs above average on offense, and that’s not even counting Nelson Cruz, who had a big down year after a breakout 2010.

While the Rangers do have a better lineup, the Tigers aren’t exactly slouches. Led by Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have a number of big bats in the middle of their lineup. Alex Avila’s breakout season was interrupted by a deep slump down the stretch and during the divisional series. The Tigers will have to hope he can bounce back during this series and continue to cement himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. Victor Martinez, acquired last offseason to protect Cabrera, has been effective in that role, as his 130 wRC+ this season tied a career high. Delmon Young, acquired on a waiver trade, has been a force in Detroit’s lineup over the final stretch of the team’s regular season, and then set a franchise record with three ALDS home runs. However, he left Game 5 with an oblique strain after his first inning home run. If the injury is significant, Young could be done for the postseason. The Tigers will be hoping it’s only a minor strain. Then there’s Jhonny Peralta who led all AL shortstops with 120 wRC+. Peralta put up a career-high 5.2 WAR in an outstanding season.

Pitching

C.J. Wilson is the clear ace of the Rangers staff. Wilson will hit free agency this season, and it’s been speculated that they’re likely to lose him to another team. Wilson’s 3.29 SIERA was 10th in the AL. He’ll be followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison. Holland had something of a breakout this year, putting up 3.6 WAR. He was behind only Neftali Feliz among the Rangers’ top pitching prospects in 2009 before joining the big club, and may be beginning to realize some of that potential. Harrison also had a pretty big breakout campaign, putting up 4.2 WAR in 30 starts after never topping 0.7 in his previous three seasons in the majors. Harrison is one of two Rangers who successfully moved from the bullpen to the rotation this season, as Alexi Ogando’s success as a starter has been a big storyline for this team. Ogando has been moved back to the bullpen for the playoff. He performed admirably throughout the Rangers’ series against the Rays, culminating in a spotless eighth inning of game 4 setting up Neftali Feliz for the series ending save. Ogando and Harrison’s success may pave the way for Feliz to move to the rotation next season, but the Rangers won’t begin to discuss that decision in earnest until the end of their playoff run.

Across the diamond, Justin Verlander put together one of the best seasons from any pitcher in recent memory. His last start of the season gave him a shot at being the first 25 game winner since Bob Welch in 1990. Not much else needs to be said about the Triple Crown winner, other than the fact that the Tigers will pitch him as many times as they possibly can in this series and every time they do he will almost certainly give them a chance to win. Verlander will be followed in the rotation by Rick Porcello, as the Tigers used both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer in their game 5 victory. Porcello and Scherzer are both young guys with big stuff, but who haven’t seen the results to match their potential yet. Both put up 2.7 WAR this season, Fister may end up being the most important acquisition by any team at this year’s trade deadline, although Hunter Pence will certainly give him a run for his money. Fister has produced 5,6 WAR this season, including 2.4 and a 2.63 SIERA in 70.1 innings with Detroit. These starters will hand the ball to the Tigers’ impressive bullpen, led by Jose “Papa Grande” Valverde. Valverde certainly has a tendency to make the ninth inning a bit of an adventure, but he’s 51-for-51 in save opportunities this season after closing out the ALDS in New York.

Home field advantage, which the Rangers clinched over the Tigers on the final day of the season, could be a huge deciding factor in this series. In the bandbox in Arlington, the Rangers’ potent office could take over games and simply out-mash the Tigers. However, in the expansive Comerica Park, the Tigers’ pitching will have a decided advantage. I think the Tigers will win at least two of their three home games, and I will be very surprised if Justin Verlander doesn’t give his team a fairly good chance to win at least one of the games in Arlington. If the Rangers can take the other three games in Arlington, that would likely set up a Verlander vs. Wilson in game 7 in Texas for all the marbles. In a deciding game, with the team on his back, it’s hard to bet against the best pitcher in the American League, so I’m going to take the Tigers to advance in what should be a thoroughly entertaining series.

I now see that it is much easier doing one of these with at least one more person like on the BBA Baseball Talk podcasts or online with the guys over at Pro Rumors TV.

Either way, I hope you enjoy this & I’ll work on improving this as I do more of these solo webcasts thanks to my new laptop with the built in webcam!

So without further ado, on with the webcast…

Sorry for the delay…we have some technical difficulties with YouTube earlier that had to wait until I got home from work. I went 2:05 over the allowed 15 minute time frame.

American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions from Peter Schiller on Vimeo.

This 17 minute webcast (my first) is my American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions.

Please let me know if you think it is too long.
Thanks!

Cliff Lee Photo by Icon SMI

From the words of Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels, the Rangers, not Yankees, are the winners of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. They will be sending star 1B prospect Justin Smoak, and minor leaguers RHP Blake Beavin, RHP Josh Lueke, and utility man Matt Lawson to the Mariners. The Rangers also receive RHP Mark Lowe and $2.5 million in cash.

In the Rangers press conference, it was announced Lee will start his first game as a Ranger tomorrow. Lee was scheduled to start today as a Mariner versus the Yankees.

After a morning of reports of a near-certain deal with the Yankees, the Rangers made a strong push to land the ace southpaw. At least for today, Yankees biggest trade chip C/DH prospect Jesus Montero will remain in their organization.

Lee is a major addition to the Rangers, as he goes to the top of the rotation, bumps everyone else down a slot, which gives them an ace for the rest of the season instead of a replacement-level #5 production. Lee’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection of a 3.11 FIP would give the Rangers an additional 3 WAR. Lowe will provide value to the Rangers in the bullpen in 2011 and beyond, as he is on the DL for the rest of 2010.

With the Rangers already 7.5 games ahead of the second place Angels, they had an 83.7 percent chance of making the playoffs without Lee, so this deal is clearly a move to improve their odds to advance in the playoffs. The Rangers in their history have never played in a League Championship Series or World Series.

For the Mariners, the 23-year-old Smoak becomes a long term answer at first base and is under club control for 6 years. A switch-hitter and solid defensive first baseman, he has drawn comparisons from prospect mavins to Mark Teixeira. Beavin, 21,  touches the mid-90s with his fastball and has displayed excellent control in Double-A Frisco with a 0.94 BB/9 and projects as a mid-rotation starter. Lueke, 25, is old compared to his peers in High-A and Double-A but owns a 1.73 FIP this season. It will be a surprise if Lawson, 24, ever becomes a Major Leaguer.

Mariners receive prospect package with Jesus Montero as the centerpiece

Cliff Lee Photo by Icon SMI

The most talked-about sweepstakes at the trade deadline this year is coming to a close. THUH-UH-UH-UH—YANKEES WIN!

Despite missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, LHP Cliff Lee places 4^th among pitchers in the WAR leaderboards at 4.0 according to Fangraphs. This includes an AL-leading 5 shutouts and an MLB-leading and mind-blowing K/BB of 14.83, which more than doubles second place Roy Halladay who owns an exceptional 6.61 mark. Cliff Lee is simply the best left-handed pitcher in baseball.

For the Yankees, who according to Cool Standings had an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs before the trade, this may just seal up a coveted spot to play October baseball and give them an absolutely fearsome top of the rotation for a 5- and 7-game series. CC Sabathia and Lee would certainly be Game 1 and 2 starters, while rising star Phil Hughes and playoff veteran Andy Pettite would both make excellent Game 3 and 4 starters. If early reports yield true, the Yankees will not trade away anyone on their 25-man roster.

Jesus Montero Photo by Icon SMI

In return, the Mariners will receive catcher and uber prospect Jesus Montero. Montero owns a .726 OPS at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre. This isn’t a noteworthy mark on its own, but as a 20-year-old catcher one step away from the Majors playing in a notorious pitcher-friendly league, this is above-average production. According to Baseball America, Montero is the #5 prospect in baseball, and joins second baseman Dustin Ackley (#7) and RHP Michael Pineda as Mariners in the top 11.

Montero alone would be a much bigger haul than what the Mariners sent to the Philadelphia Phillies before the 2010 season to acquire Lee. Other players are rumored to be heading to Seattle, including Double-A second baseman David Adams.

Clearly, the Mariners did extremely well for themselves in the Cliff Lee saga in Mariners history.

4:00 PM EST  **UPDATE**

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets the deal has fallen through. The Mariners are extremely cautious of the ankle health of infielder David Adams and another team has jumped into the sweepstakes.

Image via Wikipedia

Much of the spring training coverage for the Rangers has focused on all their options at starting pitcher. Now that the opening day rotation is set we should probably examine if they are really as deep as we think.

I think the biggest concern for this rotation is will it eat up enough innings as it did last year. If you add up all the pitchers (including the bullpen), 477 of the 1,435 innings were thrown by pitchers no longer on the club. Clearly the biggest loss was Millwood’s 198 innings.  Kevin may not have ever lived up to the top-tier ace that was expected when he came to Texas, but last year only 36 players threw more innings. Only 19 of them did it with a better ERA.  He also had 3 complete games; only 6 pitchers had more.  Halladay, Grienke, Beckett, Cain, Linecum, Weaver.  So how will the Ranger’s replace those innings?

Rangers Starting Rotation

Can Feldman strike out almost twice as many batters as he walks for 190 innings over 34 games again? Sure, at some point you have to just believe in this guy.  The problem here is that we are hoping he replaces his own production from last year; he won’t help cover for Millwood’s loss.

Rich Harden’s past numbers look like this: in 2009 141 innings, 2008 148 innings, 2004 189 innings.  How can we assume anything better than 150 innings and a 4 ERA.  Let’s give him that and be generous (and thrilled) if he gets close.

CJ Wilson threw more than 70 innings in relief last year.  His numbers and results were very good, but if you watched the games you were on the edge waiting for it to come unraveled on each pitch.  Hopefully we get 130 innings of the same this year.  The concerns about a relief pitcher more than doubling his work load in one year is well documented and doesn’t need to be rehashed here.

Colby Lewis. Really? 37 innings and 1 game started for Oakland last year doesn’t scream, “mark him down as a guaranteed starter”, but the Rangers have just that from the beginning.

Matt Harrison is a solid bottom of the rotation pitcher.  I think both Chone and I are being optimistic for him to see 110 innings.  This is where the depth comes in.

The Rangers don’t have a true number one any more but they have a bunch of solid number 4’s.  AAA Oklahoma has a starting rotation that includes Tommy Hunter (when he’s healthy), Derek Holland and Brandon McCarthy.  Every one of these guys will be beating the door down to get back on the Major League club.  They all have proven they have the talent to be there.  I would imagine as soon as Hunter shows he’s healthy he will get called up.  McCarthy I think has to show he can stay healthy over a period of time, but he could be a great tool to help fill the gap if Wilson struggles late in the year. Holland is crazy talented and just needs to learn to ‘pitch’ a little; frankly I think he can do that just as well in the big leagues.

The bullpen will have more to deal with this year.  I think any bullpen with Feliz, Francisco and O’Day will be fine.

For the top 8 starting pitchers we could be as deep as anyone.  The problem is we are counting on 3 players to do more than they ever have in the top 4 with Wilson, Harden and Lewis.  The safe bet is that the starting 5 will look very different in August than it does now.

For a detailed look at the new approach to pitching and how pitchers are to train and be handled by a coaching staff, please read the ESPN Magazine article (if you can) by Tim Keown dated September 7th, 2009.

From that article, Ryan’s goal was simple, “I want to build a well-rounded ball club, not one based on just hitting”.

When Ryan was asked about how the babying of pitchers came to be, this is what he told Keown, “All this outside crap came into play,” Ryan says. “All of a sudden you have people who haven’t pitched and haven’t played and don’t understand baseball driving the front offices to come up with a number. ‘Oh, he’s at 100 pitches. I need to take him out.’ No, he should be getting one more out to get out of the inning.”

After a season in 2008 that saw the Rangers allow the most runs in the majors they had allowed the fewest in 2009 up to mid-August (when the article was written). This fact alone should open up some eyes and begin to break down the barriers teams have that prevent pitchers to throw more and train more effectively. If Ryan’s methodology is implemented I think that teams will get more for their money out of these high priced pitchers than they currently do.

Before the 2009 season began, this was the new team philosophy/edict that was laid out before the Rangers, “A pitch count is a limit. You have no limits.”

To help reinforce this new (or rather old) methodology, Ryan hired former pitcher Mike Maddux as the rangers new pitching coach. This is an insight into the Ranger’s new team philosophy under Ryan as is preached by Maddux, “If you throw 10 pitches an inning, you can throw 15 innings,” Maddux says. “But a 10-pitch inning when you give up a two-out double is a lot different from a 10-pitch inning when you give up a leadoff double. We’ve had to reeducate guys to understand a perfect inning isn’t nine pitches and three strikeouts; it’s three pitches and three outs.”

Now with that being said, there will be some exceptions to the rule. Players who just don’t have the physical make up to withstand a grueling 162 game season without the current babying/codling that we’ve seen over the last 15-20 years in baseball.

Since Ryan has been in the Rangers organization in this capacity the team has gotten rid of players who do not accept the new methodology.

Futhermore, Ryan’s claimed that pitchers are not conditioned in a way to exceed expectations. He is quoted as saying, “These guys weren’t conditioned to go deep into games,” Ryan says. “They had to change their mind-set. We had to get them in shape, make them throw more. Once they bought into it, they realized we weren’t asking them to do something they couldn’t do. They got tougher. They realized mental toughness is a result of physical toughness.”

But don’t take my word for it, let’s see what some of the players who have been in this environment have to say about it!

“At first, I didn’t know if my arm was going to hold up,” Feldman says. “Now, more than halfway through the season, I can see where it helped.”

Upon Ryan’s insistence that pitchers throw live batting practice in spring straining (before the 2009 season) brought on the following comments from both Ryan and 13 year veteran Kevin Millwood. “That’s how you learned to read hitters,” Ryan says. “That’s how you learned what works and what doesn’t.” “I was working on some things and just felt good,” Millwood says. “I lost track of time. And I was getting so much out of it, I just kept throwing.”

They have also changed the menu in the clubhouse to once that is more nutritional that they think will help players beat the Texas heat and provide them with more endurance, too.

They have also created a new “unofficial” baseball term/position, the utility pitcher which might be similar to a spot starter. Here’s that the player who held this position in 2009 for the Rangers, Jason Jennings had to say about the new position. “If the starter pulls a hamstring after one pitch, I’m the guy. And if a game goes 14 innings, I’m the guy. The only ‘utility’ I’d heard of in baseball was ‘utility infielder,’ ” says the 31-year-old Jennings. “But I’m glad to have the job. It’s kept me in the big leagues.”

So after reading this and the original Keown article, what are your thoughts on what Nolan Ryan is trying to do with the Texas Rangers pitching staff. Do you think the other MLB teams will copy cat the idea if it works? Do ou think it will work at all? I for one hope it does!

I look forward to the ensuing discussion…

Here are a few links to the trades and signings this Hot Stove Season from teams who are either not currently covered here or haven’t been covered in a while…in alphabetical order and from the blogs currently on my blogroll. If you want to be added to my team blogrolls just send me an e-mail with a link to the blog.

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox acquire Mark Teahan from the Royals

The Chicago White Sox re-sign Mark Kotsay

The Chicago White Sox sign Omar Vizquel to a 1-year deal

The Chicago White Sox sign Andruw Jones

Cleveland Indians

Castrovince: Indians Name Manny Acta Manager

Tim Belcher named the new Indians pitching coach

Tolman, Radinsky, Smith added to Acta’s Staff

Sandy Alomar Jr. returning to Tribe

Transactions: Shoppach Traded

Florida Marlins

Scott Proctor gets a new gig

Hermida Shipped Out to Boston

Texas Rangers

Salt hurt in winter league.

The Texas Rangers have traditionally had a rough time with the second half of the season, but this season seems to be a little different. While they are winners of 7 out of 10 games, they do have hit a bump in the road with the AL-worst Oakland Athletics.  The Rangers were quiet during the trade deadline and stand only 4 ½ games back from the Angels in the West and only 3 ½ games back from the Wild Card as of the time of this writing (8/6/09).

With Nolan Ryan emphasizing pitcher endurance during the offseason, the fruits of his labor are being shown this late into the season.  The bright spot of the Rangers pitching spot has been the health of Kevin Millwood (until recently with a gluteus strain). Millwood, the ace of the staff, has 8 quality starts and a 3.39 ERA.  Pitching is keeping the Rangers afloat in the race, while the offense has tailed off.  Quite a paradox when someone considers that the Rangers have prided themselves on offense and offense alone.  Scott Feldman, surprisingly has 10 wins on the season and leads the club in wins.

Texas is now in the top 8 in the AL in strikeouts, BAA, quality starts, walks and ERA.  The bullpen is ranked as the fourth best bullpen in the AL.  While things are looking up on the pitching staff, the Rangers need to find their bats once again.  Their bats this season has landed them in the bottom five in BA, on-base percentage and runs scored.  In 2008, they finished the season first in all those categories.

Many critics had the Rangers finishing third in the West, but the Rangers find themselves in the playoff hunt with a month and a half to go in the regular season.  Pitchers like Derek Holland and Scott Feldman have filled in their roles as starters for the injured Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison, and have done a good job.  The bullpen is amongst the best in the league and Josh Hamilton is finding his groove back at the plate.

Texas had the number 1 rated farm system coming into the season.  We’ve seen many of those players in and out and they have produced.  One such player was Neftali Feliz, who struck out 4 straight and had a sickening 101 MPH fastball.  Another player that could be called up later this month is Justin Smoak, who is batting .379 in AAA.  He was drafted in ’08.

There is plenty of baseball to be played and not many expected to see Texas in contention this season.  Ron Washington’s job is safe for another season.  It’s anyone’s race in the West and it may very well come down to the last series of the season for the Angels and the Rangers.

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