Photo taken from Zimbio via Google Images

New Red Sox skipper Bobby Valentine has gone on the record as saying that adding a starting pitcher isn’t at the top of his priority list.  He thinks they have plenty of arms in the mix when they get to Ft. Myers in three weeks, so for right now, it’s not at the top of his wish list.

Um, excuse me, Mr. Valentine, but if not now, when?

While everyone is focusing on the team’s epic September collapse, let’s not also forget the team’s dreadful start to 2011: 2-11.  It started with an opening-series sweep at the hands of the Rangers.  Fine, I’ll grant you, they were the defending AL champions and just happened to be on their way to heading right back to the World Series.  I get it, one of the best teams in the league knocked ‘em around a little.  But then you get to Cleveland and get swept?  Come on.

The Red Sox scored a total of 11 runs in those first six games while their opponents took extra BP and scored 38.  That kicked off a month that ended in an 11-15 record.  Clearly the traditional cliché of a marathon versus a sprint applies, as anyone who watched game 162 with baited breath will tell you.  It simply cannot be understated how important it will be for this 2012 team to get off to a good start.

Which brings us back to the issue of the starting pitching staff.  This year’s team features not a single pitcher who reached the 200-inning plateau in 2011.   While Josh Beckett and Jon Lester each had fine seasons (September struggles not withstanding), neither of them reached that critical marker.  Add to that the losses of John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka to Tommy John surgery.  Then add to that the Clay Buchholz injury watch.  Then add to that the unknown of Daniel Bard pitching as a starter instead of as a lights-out setup man.  Do you see where this is going?

The Red Sox finished with 90 wins last year, a number that for all intents and purposes should have assured them a playoff spot (stay tuned for the introduction of the second wild card this year).  The problem is all intents and purposes get checked at the door to the AL East.

Image via Wikipedia

The Yankees mixed and matched all season until they found a mix that clinched the division.  Then in the offseason they’ve added an underrated workhorse in Hiroki Kuroda, wresting him away from possibly playing in Boston, and traded for an act on the rise in Michael Pineda.

The Rays, who did what the Red Sox couldn’t on September 28^th last year to claim the Wild Card, have arguably the best pitching staff in the American League in David Price, James Shields, rookie phenom Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Wade Davis.  They didn’t stand pat either, bringing in a couple lefty bats in Carlos Pena and Luke Scott, both with plenty of experience in the AL East, to help back that staff.

So now the ball is in the Red Sox’ court.  They had a shot to get Kuroda and missed.  Now they’re in supposed conversations with Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson.  One guy gets hurt (meaning he makes your bad back look like a stubbed toe), the other guy has played for six teams in eight years.  They simply don’t know what to expect from three-fifths of their rotation, whether it’s injury concerns or simply not knowing who will take the ball the next day.  They’re taking it down to the likes of Carlos Silva, Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Felix Doubront, Justin Germano, Clayton Mortenson, and last year’s pitching hero, Alfredo Aceves.  Leaves you feeling all warm and tingly inside, doesn’t it?

So it’s time to ask again: if not now, then when?

Introduction

This article is a follow up to the one published here on Monday, December 12th. In this article I will delve in more detail into the Red Sox current Pitching situation. Here we will break things down by talking about the current list of injured pitchers and the effect that has on the team, the 2011 pitchers that are currently free agents, the rotation, the bullpen, pitchers that were not on the Red Sox in 2011 that are now free agents & pitchers that might be available via trade.

The Injuries

Almost like a team plague, Tommy John Surgery seems to have hit the Red Sox like a virus over the past two years. First, I believe, there was Junici Tazawa who had returned late last season from his surgery & since his there have been three more players that have succumbed to it…

SP Rich Hill – Recovering from Tommy John surgery (on June 9th) and was recently non-tendered. His recovery will probably result in him being out until after the start of 2012, but with Boston having so many lefties under team control (Morales, Doubront and Miller) without the ability (options) to sent them to Pawtucket (AAA), they had to release him. Although, if one of those guys were involved in a possible trade, that would open the door up to the Red Sox re-signing him. I personally think he’s be a better option for them than two of them if not all three.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka - will miss at least half of the 2012 season due to recovery from his Tommy John surgery. It is hoped that his return will be the equivalent of a trade deadline acquisition as he might be back sometime after the All Star game. Although, given the tendency of pitchers returning from this procedure having control problems coupled with Dice-K’s insistence on nibbling around the plate sounds like a recipe for some scary innings of work (hopefully the Red Sox can keep him in AAA Pawtucket during that awkward time is his rehab). I don’t see him being a reliable option at the major league level until the All Star break at the earliest.

Picture of John Lackey taken by Tony Molica

SP John Lackey - He is the last pitcher to succumb to this injury as of late and because he didn’t address this injury until after the 2011 season, he will miss all of 2012. On the bright side, it looks like the injury that made this procedure a necessity was directly related to Lackey’s poor 2011 performance (it seems as if he may have pitched with this injury most of the season knowing that he couldn’t hurt himself further), one that was the worst by any Red Sox starting pitcher in the team’s storied history for a full season.  Some have also reported that he stayed off the DL for the team’s sake given the state of the staff and took one for the team so to speak. So, maybe he will look more like the pitcher we saw with the Angels in 2013!

Former Red Sox Pitchers that are now Free Agents
RP Trever Miller (age: 38) - Miller only pitched in 2 innings for the Red Sox (in 3 outings) while recording 1K without giving up a hit, a walk or a run. In all of 2011 between the Blue Jays, Cardinals and the Red Sox he only pitched in 21.1 innings over 48 outings and had an 0-1 record with 1 SV 3 blown saves and 5 holds, while maintaining a 3.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

RP Dan Wheeler (age: 34) - Wheeler is a Type B free agent. He declined the Red Sox offer of arbitration. He was on and off the DL during the 2011 season posting a line of 2-2 with 4 Holds, 0 blown saves, 39 K, 1.11 WHIP, 4.38 ERA in 49.1 IP. For his career he boasts a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 43 saves, a 25-43 record with 553K in 628.1 IP.

SP Tim Wakefield (age: 45) - With Wakefield’s reoccurring back problems over the past few years and his painful-to-watch attempt to get his 200th victory last year, it is probably only a 50/50 chance at best that the Red Sox re-sign him for the 2012 season. And the latest news is that Theo (I mean Jed Hoyer) may seek to sign Wakefield (and possibly even Varitek) with the Cubs. 2011 saw Wakefield go 7-8 with 93Ks, a 1.36 WHIP, .267 BAA and a 5.12 ERA in 154.2 innings pitched with 1 CG in only 23 starts (10 relief appearances) while giving up a whopping 25 HRs. In contrast to those numbers, he has a career average of a 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (so that didn’t change) with 2156 Ks in 3226.2 innings pitched over 463 starts (164 relief appearances) with 33 CGs with 6 of those being shutouts. Bottom line: I’d bring him back even if it was just for insurance. He’s a great team player, can both start and pitch in the bullpen and can eat up innings. On top of all of that, when he gets going (if), he can string together a bunch of consecutive wins (if you have a catcher that can catch him and not many can).

The Rotation

Jon Lester - In my opinion Lester is the Ace of this staff! He has won 15 or more games in his last four seasons (19 in 2010) and 2012 should see him pitch in over 200 innings once again (he had only 191.2 IP last year, the first time under 200 in those same four seasons) and be in contention for the Cy Young Award once again with  also hitting the 200K mark again.

Josh Beckett - If Beckett has post another sub 3.00 ERA he might be in line to go head to head with Lester for that Cy Young Award, but he will more likely have an ERA under 4.00 and 190 or more Ks. Last year, for at least half of the season, he proved that he can still be a co-Ace on this staff and Bobby V might be the type of manager that can motivate him to do so once again, but his best years are behind him at this point, I’m affraid.

Clay Buchholz - I see Clay as being, realistically speaking, a solid number two pitcher on this staff with a performance that is in between his 2010 (.708 winning percentage) and 2011 (.667 winning percentage) seasons if he can stay healthy.

Daniel Bard – At first, I wasn’t sure how to take the news of Bard joining the rotation, but with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey I have to agree with it. I think Bard, if the opinion of Curt Young (Red Sox 2011 Pitching Coach) is accurate, is well suited to transfer into the rotation like the Rangers have done recently with CJ Wilson, Alexi Ogando, etc. Young mentions the addition of a newly mastered changeup to go with his fastball and slider as reasons that back a move to the rotation. I think he’ll do just fine and might end up in the pen three quarters of the way into the season due to the added workload after being a short reliever up until now.

Picture of Alfredo Aceves taken by Tony Molica

Alfredo Aceves - If no one besides one of the slew of low risk starters the Sox have signed to this point pans out, Alfredo should be the fifth starter (or at least the first guy out of the pen to spot start). His 2011 performance when called upon has earned him that right.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (DL: Tommy John Surgery) - Dice-K might just be the equivalent to a mid season aquisition when he returns from Tommy John surgery. With Bobby V at the helm, it just might be what the doctor ordered for Dice-K in his final months as a member of the Red Sox due to Bobby’s time spent managing in Japan. I expect the best performance we’ve seen up to this point upon his return if he is healthy enough post-surgery to accomplish it.

The Bullpen

Bobby Jenks - In December, Jenks has lower back surgery to remove bone fragments and less than a month later has had a second operation on his back and will probably miss the start of spring training. If he can stay healthy he would be a valuable 7th or 8th inning option along with Malanson; otherwise, he’s sure to be DFA’d or traded during the season.

Scott Atchison - Atchison has his best numbers in the following categories in 2011: ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.20), but his SO/9 were at a career low at 5.0. He also had very good command as seen with a BB/9 rate of 1.8 and he did not give up even one HR. I’d keep him, but would monitor his SO/9 and H/9 rates to see if they loose any more ground. If they do, I’d expect that to affect his ERA and WHIP numbers, too and if that happens I’d cut ties with him. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options). Due to the signing of OF Cody Ross, Atchison has been designated for assignment. In my most humble opinion, this should have been Albers. Sorry Matt!

Matt Albers - The only thing I like about Albers stat line for 2011 was his increase in SO/9 which was almost 3 points higher than his previous season high. What I don’t trust is a RP with a WHIP of 1.43, which sadly enough was his second best total in his career. I’ll see if there were any takers on him & try to get a decent prospect out of it. Maybe put him into a package to the Cubs in an attempt to land a better compensation deal for Theo.

Franklin Morales – His totals in Boston were his best since his rookie year of 2007. In Boston he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, a 2.82 SO/BB and a SO/9 of 8.6 second only to his 9.2 in 2009. That and the fact that he’s a lefty and only 25 years old tells me that he is a keeper. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Michael Bowden - If Bowden can continue to lower his H/9, ERA and WHIP as well as increase his SO/9 while he continues to adjust to pitching in relief, he might have his best year in a Red Sox uniform in 2012. But even if he does, it might not be enough unless it is more significant than his progress thus far seeing his WHIP was 1.50. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Junichi Tazawa - There’s not much to go on here so it all depends upon his efforts in spring training, but I don’t see a situation where he breaks camp with the big club. He’ll probably wind up in Pawtucket for some more seasoning of his game and see how he progresses as the season goes on. After all, he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Felix Doubront - Doubront’s numbers last year in Boston were not very good as can be seen over at Baseball-Reference.com and unless he can show signs of bouncing back in 2012, I would add him in with Albers and try to flip him to the Cubs in the Theo compensation deal. It’s time to cut bait on him or change the way they are using him (which may be the best route to travel if they cannot find a taker for him). The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

Andrew Miller  - I don’t see where they can use him in Boston except in mop up duty unless he turns a corner in 2012 and starts living up to his potential. After all, he is just 26 years old. Just look at his numbers over at Baseball-Reference.com to see what I am talking about. His WHIP alone scares me away. The Red Sox no longer have the ability to option him to the minors (he is out of MiLB options).

RP Rich Hill - Was recently resigned to a minor league deal with the Red Sox that will pay him $750K if he makes it to Boston in 2012 after recovering from Tommy John surgery he had back in June 2011. I see him as a big part of the Red Sox bullpen if he can bounce back from the surgery.

Currently Available Free Agent Pitchers

SP’s

Rich Harden – I think they have gotten enough players like Harden already; therefore, I do not see them going after him, too! Although he can be dominant when healthy, but the problem is, lately, he rarely is…

Edwin Jackson - is going to cost too much for them to sign him this off season both in years and overall salary. He’d be a good number 4 or 5 starter though (much like Paul Maholm who was signed by the Cubs to an affordable one-year contract, darn you Theo!).

Roy Oswalt – On a one-year contract under $10M (probably around the $8M mark), I do that deal in a heart beat even if it means trading a few minor pieces to get it done! Come on Ben, sign him already!

Brandon Webb – He is damaged goods that I don’t think even the Red Sox would take a flyer on at this time. Let’s see what he can do on a one year contract for someone else before we jump to a final assessment on him for the long haul…

Chris Young – I still think that Young would be a good back end of the rotation kind of guy, but the question is…can he handle playing in Boston with the media frenzy and all? We may never know…the Sox may be done shopping for the rotation at this point.

RP’s

I have only listed the available arms I’d be interested in. If you would like to know my opinion on another name not listed here, please ask me in the comments below and I’ll get back to you ASAP!

Mike Gonzalez - If Gonzalez can get back to his 2009 form, he would be a nice lefty out of thre pen, but his ERA and K/9 are both trending in the wrong way, he is not a groundball pitcher and even his xFIP was over 3.7 which is a bit high for my taste for a bullpen arm.

Chad Qualls – My main concern with Qualls is the drop in his K/9 last year. He went from being over 7 and 8 (with a low of 7.47 in 2010) over the last four years, to a 5.21 in 2011. In fact, it has been dropping ever since it’s height in 2008 at 8.67. Although 2010 saw his ERA spike at 7.32, his xFIP was actually 3.72. Another bonus is that his groundball percentages have been 55% or more his whole career, which fits into the new GM’s mold for pitchers.

DFA List

SP Micah Owings – He’s coming off a year that saw him hit his best numbers in ERA (3.57), appearances (33, with 4 starts) and BABIP (.258) in the majors, but his xFIP was 4.51 (but even that was his best thus far in his career). I’d like to see him get his K/9 back up around 9.45 (2010 with the Reds). He can also be a long reliever, another spot start option or might be useful pitching in the 7th inning right in front of Melancon. A role he has not been in up to this point in his early career, but is something that could rejuvenate his career and allow him to regain those high K/9 numbers.

What I like most about his is his ability to be another right handed bat off the bench, something you don’t normally think about with a pitcher these days! Read this: in only 217 PA he has hit .286 with 27 R, 35 RBI, 9 HR, .313 OBP, .507 SLG a 106 wRC+, .222 ISO, .389 BABIP and holds a 3.8 WAR as a hitter. It’s almost like carrying an extra bench player! This move is a no brainer to me, especially when you consider that he only made around $423K last year.

Pitchers that Might be Available via Trade

If 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks sets AAA ablaze offensively and maintains his deffensive prowess, we might see Kevin Youkilis jettisoned out in a trade for one of these guys. If not, then a multi-player deal surrounding the likes of Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Matt Albers, Felix Dubront, Andrew Miller, Bobby Jenks or Michael Bowden (pick a few from this list, but there are others not mentioned that could be had) might pry one of these guys loose.

SP Matt Garza (Cubs) – Probably the least likeliest of trade possibilities, but it could happen. I just don’t think Theo and Jed would do it unless they were blown away (including Middlebrooks, Iglesias or Brittan) and I don’t see Cherrington doing that. The Cubs could use Youk, too.

SP Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) – I’m sort of luke-warm on Wandy…I just am not sold on him and I have no idea if we could handle the pressure cooker that is pitching in Boston. He also could be had on the cheap!

SP Brett Myers (Astros) – My least favorite choice. Myers is a poor mans Schilling and simply not good enough in my estimation, but could probably be had on the cheap.

SP – Tom Gorzelanny (Nationals) - Although I’d take Masterson or Garza ahead of him, Gorzelanny would work out well (if healthy) at the end of the rotation if he could handle the pressure in Boston. The deal that would net him wouldn’t be as costly either!

SP – Justin Masterson (Indians) – Probably my favorite choice on this list (which is admittedly short). I was disappointed to hear that he was a part of the Victor Martinez trade to begin with, although I would have never admitted to thinking he’d be this good as a starter. I always projected him as a long-to-short reliever. But after seeing what he’s doing in Cleveland, I’d be tickled pink to have him at the end of the Red Sox rotation! And…the Indians are looking to upgrade at 1B (Youk’s best position), too.

SP – Gavin Floyd (White Sox) - If the remaining free agent starting pitchers sign elsewhere or are asking for more (in terms of either years or dollars) than what the Red Sox are willing to shell out, then maybe the speculated trade for Floyd would be a nice option. The “other” Sox team has been either trading away players(Carlos Quentin) letting them walk (Buehrle) or signed to a long term contract (John Danks); making it difficult to understand what direction they are going in at the  present time. But seeing what the asked for in exchange for Quentin, Boston might be able to put a deal together either before the start of the season or by the trading deadline in July. I like this idea, but it would depend upon what they’d need to give up. The price might still be too high.

Hot Stove Season Transactions To Date

RP Mark Melancon - He was obtained via trade for INF Jed Lowrie and P Kyle Weiland. Melancon is primed to become a late inning arm that will be a big threat in either the 7th, 8th or 9th innings for Boston in 2012. He is young (will turn 27 during the season), comes inexpensive and will be under team control until after the 2016 season. He became the Astros closer after an injury to Brandon Lyon in May saving 20 in 25 opportunities over 74.1 innings (in 71 appearances) with an ERA of 2.78 and a 1.22 WHIP with 3 Holds. His other stats include a 7.99 K/9, .234 BAA and 2.54 K/BB. With the trade for Bailey, Melancon becomes the set up man for him taking over for Bard who will now be free to convert to the starting rotation.

Closer Andrew Bailey - He was obtained (along with OF Ryan Sweeney) via trade for OF Josh Reddick, 1B/3B Miles Head and P Raul Alcantara. Bailey, who is also 27 (like Melancon) is a two-time All Star as the A’s closer & will remain under team control until 2014.

Aaron Cook – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Cook, Silva and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Cook has only had 10+ wins twice in his career (16 in 2008 and 11 in 2009).

Carlos Silva – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is a long shot who will probably start the season in AAA and be kept as insurance, but might help out in long relief if he regains his accuracy. The 5th spot in the rotation (that is if Bard is the # 4 starter) is between Silva, Cook and Padilla (edge to Padilla) and he’ll need to earn it! Plus Silva has only had 10+ wins in a season four times (2004, 2006-2007 and 2010). I like the possibility of Silva regaining his touch over Cook. Silva has also been better more recently than Cook, too.

Justin Germano - Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, but after seeing his numbers per Baseball-Reference, and the signings of Cook and Silva, I don’t see him making the big club out of spring training.

Vicente Padilla – Was recently signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He is my favorite choice out of the pack obtained to vie for the 4th & 5th spot in the rotation because he’s had more recent success than the others. He has also had four seasons with 10+ wins, but in those seasons he has been more consistent (14 wins three times in 2003-04 and 2008 and 15 wins in 2006) and his xFIP (3.40 and 3.47 in 2011 and 2010 in LA) has been more consistent throughout his career.

John Maine – Was recently signed to a minor league deal and will probably start off the season at AAA as a relief pitcher.

The Free Agent Pitchers, To Date, Who They Should Have Signed

The following pitchers all signed one year deals that the Red Sox could have afforded and should have made.

Hiroki Kuroda (SP) - Signed for $10,000,000 with the Yankees and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. This is the one fish I am really sad to see get away and the fact that he went to the arch rival Yankees makes it hurt even worse!

Paul Maholm (SP) - Signed for $4,750,000 with the Cubs and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. Why the Red Sox didn’t beat Theo to the punch on this one is beyond me unless they had no idea he could be had for so cheap and for just one year!

Jon Rauch (RP) – Signed for $3,500,000 with the Mets. He’d have been a nice addition to the pen…

George Sherrill (RP) - Signed for $1,100,000 with the Mariners. He would have been a nice guy to pitch to lefties (as much as I hate this tactic) out of the pen.

Joel Zumaya (RP) - Signed for $850,000 with the Twins and the Red Sox were known to be interested in him. At this price, he was so worth the risk!

In closing, if you have any questions about a player I have either mentioned or neglected to mention, but should have, let’s discuss that in the comments below. I look forward to seeing you there!

Photo taken from Google Images

Maturity and success aren’t always aligned with years on the diamond; just ask Australian sensation Justin Erasmus.  The Boston Red Sox know this, having snapped Erasmus up as a free agent at just 17.  This now 21-year-old right handed pitcher is carving his name around the globe in baseball.

Currently on the Brisbane Bandits roster, Erasmus is a star player in his second season with the newly revived Australian Baseball League.  Here are some insights into his quirky superstitions, how he keeps his money-maker in check, the Sox and what really goes on in the bullpen…

Sox Prospects describes your pitch as “Smooth, over-the-top and deliberate”, can you elaborate?

I think they’ve got it spot on – I try to be as sound as I can with my mechanics.  I’ll go with pretty much exactly what they said.

How do you keep your arm in check?

I do a shoulder program around three times a week, but every day I’ll do Thera-Band work and pretty much just throwing and lots of stretching.  Every time at the field I’ll do internal and external rotations, more stretching, then recovery – involves loads of ice.

General fitness – what do you do to maintain your performance level?

It is pretty difficult; I’m on a Red Sox Training Program and a gym routine. Right now it’s five days a week and it’s tough because I’ve got training and then pitching on the weekend.  So I go – Monday I’ll do legs, Tuesday upper body, Wednesday legs again, Thursday upper body, Friday is a light kind of mellow recovery day and weekends I’m running around playing baseball.

Which aspects of your pitching game are you currently working on and aiming to improve?

Throwing strikes, trying to throw a Cutter right now which is pretty much a fastball but a little different.  Throwing a Cutter is my focus, more change ups, pretty much pitching in general, just trying to do something different than just straight.  It’s all about finger pressure and how you release the ball.

Considering your high pressure role, are you always tense during games?

When I’m there, this might sound really weird, but I don’t pay much attention to the actual game, I try to mellow out, have some fun in the bullpen and then when they call ‘Erasmus do you want to get ready?’ I go through my pregame routine; before I go out there I give everyone a fist pump thing, pump myself up a little bit and once I get to the mound, I know my job is to get that guy out any way, shape or form.

How do you relax and then go straight in to playing mode?

It’s turning it on.  If you’re 100% ready to go every single game and you don’t throw the first three games, by the fourth you are mentally drained.  When you finally go on to pitch, you won’t be as good as you should be.  I’ve learnt how to turn it on and turn it off, so most of the time I’m off and then, when my name gets called, I just mentally flip, I don’t talk too much, I do what I need to do to get warm.  When I run out there it’s all adrenaline and then I slow down. When the first hitter steps in, I’m ready and then it’s just trying to get him out – any way.

How do you pass the time in the bullpen?

You chill out, you have fun.  Obviously you watch a bit of the game, you’ve got to note what some hitters do but you’re not 100% on the game.  You’ve got to be able to zone out and a change back really quickly, like snap back into it.

Once on the mound, what do you end up saying to yourself?

Before I get to there, I’ve got a lot of pregame/prepitch superstitions so that’s pretty much the switch – saying “Alright, you’ve got to go to work” and I just tell myself “Hey, stay back, throw the ball down, throw a strike” – that’s pretty much it.  Hit a spot, I’m confident in everything I throw so I just make sure I hit that spot.

A lot of people have asked me to find out what the ball-behind-the-head routine is about.  Can you explain it?

What it is, is a tap the back of my right foot and touch my hat and it’s like a signal – right, go to work.  It’s a switch, you’ve just thrown your first pitch and that’s over and done with and now you’ve got to do it all over again, start again.  So if I miss and throw a ball, I’ll do that and prepare myself for the next pitch, hopefully a better one.

Pitchers in particular are known to be superstitious players, I guess only you can really understand it…

I have a lot of rituals, superstitions, and that works so I’m not going to go changing it.  If you could get a video of these superstitions that would be pretty funny but there are also a lot of behind the scenes superstitions no one really knows about.

Fair to say you’re quite a controlled player…

Yes, I am focused, I’m over analytical, I think a lot which makes me aggressive on the mound.  I know my job, I know what I’ve got to do and I’ll do anything to get that job done.

Obviously you understand it’s not just harnessing your skill in one way…

Baseball is 90% mental – once you’re happy with yourself and have developed your own strategies, it makes it a whole lot easier.  I learnt that from Phil Jauncey (Australia’s foremost Performance Psychologist), he gives you a test that defines your approach to life and getting ahead and you go from there.  I am a ‘Mozzie’ thinker which means I talk a lot, I’ve got a lot of energy and when it comes down to it, I like to analyze things and make sure I’ve got it all sorted out properly.

Finally – why Bandits, why a second time around?

Pretty much working with KJ (Kevin Jordon, Bandits Manger and former Philadelphia Phillies infielder) again.  I spoke to him a lot last season, he is a great guy who knows so much about baseball. He knows my situation; he knows what I’ve got to do.  KJs been in the big leagues – I respect him a lot.  Right now, I’m back living at home with my family which is great because I spend 9 to 10 months out of the country, being around them when I can is really important.

Erasmus was one of just two Brisbane Bandits handpicked to play for Team Australia in the Australian Baseball League All-Stars game in Perth on December 21st which aired on the MLB Network.

This article was originally posted at BaseballDigest.com on December 4^th, but was updated for this publication due to a few transactions that have occurred since it was written.

A Look Back at Boston’s 2011 Season

First, they had that horrific 0-6 start which led to their 11-15 April finish and this was after being tabbed as the AL heir to the Pennant due to their roster with the additions of 1B Adrian Gonzales (moving Kevin Youkilis to 3B) and LF Carl Crawford. Then they went on a tear where they were one of the hottest teams in baseball…until September rolled around. At this point I think we all know what happened then (too much probably), so I won’t rehash it here.

Boston’s Offseason So Far…

This resulted in ownership not picking up longtime manager, Terry (Tito) Francona’s 2-year option leaving the team in search of a replacement. Then there was the long and drawn out process of the Cubs prying away GM Theo Epstein to be their new head of Baseball Operations. Although Boston has promoted Ben Cherrington, who has held almost every possible Baseball Operations position since being hired by Dan Duquette (Boston’s former GM, who is now the new GM of the rival Orioles), they still have not reached an agreement on the compensation package for Epstein who was still under contract with Boston. The next step and the team’s top priority, as new GM Cherrington noted when hired, was to find a new manager.

In the process they lost out on the chance to resign longtime closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies via Free Agency (signed to a record breaking contract for closers, 4 years at $50M with an option for a 5^th year). I’m not sure if this was a rookie mistake, a poorly communicated course of action or just the reaction to the current team situation (the seemingly disharmony between the front office, team field management and the players) because Papelbon didn’t even offer the Red Sox, the team who drafted him and the only place where he has played in his career, the chance to match or beat the offer. Seeing how his annual salary won’t be much different than his 2011 salary with the Red Sox is what makes this decision that much more interesting. Maybe Papelbon, who is not known to be the brightest bulb in the box, just didn’t realize that the reason why the Red Sox hadn’t contacted him yet (he did sign a lot earlier in the offseason that I would have estimated) was because they were solely focused on hiring the next team manager. Oddly enough, shortly after Papelbon’s signing, reports came out that Cherrington contacted either Ortiz or his agent to at least discuss the team’s interest in their longtime DH. Hmm…interesting. Does that move hint towards a rookie mistake in not extending the same courtesy to their former closer or were they simply just ready (and expected) to see him walk and sign elsewhere?

Happy Valentine’s Day, Boston

That brings us to the latest news…the hiring of the 45^th Red Sox manager, Bobby Valentine (former manager of the Texas Rangers from 1985-1992, Chiba Lotte Marines in 1995, the New York Mets from 1996-2002 and another stint with the Chiba Lotte Marines from 2004-2009 where he won a Championship in 2005). Many people have questioned the signing and even the interest in Mr. Valentine by the new GM due to Valentine’s longtime friendship to team President & part principle owner, Larry Lucchino, but if you look into this signing more closely his hiring actually makes sense. As the rumored leaked out of Valentine’s candidacy, I have to admit, as a fan, I wasn’t happy (not knowing much of the man except that he managed the Mets in the US and the Marines in Japan aside from the fact that he had the reputation of not getting along with upper management). However, in the last 24 hours and a little research, I have come to the conclusion that outside of Joe Torre or current Yankees bench coach Tony Pena (my personal preferences for the Boston managerial job), Valentine was the best choice for the job and here are some of the reasons why I now think so…

As Tim Kurkjian writes in his recent article entitled, “Bobby Valentine’s one of a kind”

concerning how Valentine would handle the personalities in the clubhouse after the issues that came to view after the season ended, “Valentine will not allow Josh Beckett to not work in between starts. Valentine will find out how three of Carl Crawford’s five tools disappeared last year, and he will make sure he finds them in 2012.” Kurkjian also writes, “He has no patience for some of the clichéd teaching techniques today, and the common misconceptions about the game.”

Kurkjian goes on to state how age has changed Valentine since his last stint managing in MLB,  “He’s not as smug and as arrogant as he used to be, but not much else has changed. No one sells a team, and the game, better than Valentine. When he takes on a project, “I have to do the whole thing,” he said.”

Kurkjian also mentions Valentine’s effect he has had on the game he writes, “Valentine managed seven years in Japan. He won a championship, but he did much more. In some ways, he changed the way they played baseball in Japan. He changed the way players approached the game and he humanized the players, which wasn’t easy given the structured nature of Japanese baseball.”

Scott Lauber recently spoke with Valentine’s former GM in NY, Steve Phillips about his relationship with his former manager and if he think he would be a good fit in Boston and this is what he had to say, “I think Bobby would be great,” Phillips told the Herald by phone today. “You’ve got an experienced manager who has opinions, who is a new-age thinker. Bobby, he’s not an old-school guy. He thinks outside of the box — a lot. Stats mean something to him. Numbers mean something to him. He actually suits the philosophy of the Red Sox very, very well. Based upon how I would evaluate the Red Sox, I think Bobby would be an excellent fit for them.”

“With the Mets, Phillips said Valentine sat in on meetings in which suggestions were made. He described Valentine as “very vocal,” yet receptive to ideas, especially if they were presented in a respectful way.”

By the way, Lauber started off that article with this statement (for those of you who don’t remember), “Nobody had a more volatile relationship with Bobby Valentine than Steve Phillips.

As the Mets’ GM-manager tandem for six seasons (1997-2002), Phillips and Valentine frequently feuded, often through the media.”

Remaining Free Agents from the 2011 Team

RP Dan Wheeler – if he can pitch in 2012 like he did in Tampa that any team would love to have him, but last season was one where he was inconsistent (probably due to injury) which makes him a questionable option.

P Tim Wakefield (45) – if they don’t get anyone from outside the system to pitch in 2012, then I would definitely bring him back on cheap money due to his recent back problems. I‘d bring him back in that scenario due to his flexibility to spot start on a moment’s notice, be a long man out of the pen or even a 7^th or 8^th inning set up to whomever the closer may be.

C Jason Varitek (39) – with Ramon Hernandez & Chris Iannetta are both in new homes already, unless they make a surprise signing, I think they should bring back the captain as their back up. All bets are off if they sign a starting catcher & move Salty to a backup role.

Player(s) To Look Out for in 2012

SS Jose Iglesias will get some platoon time under Valentine if he proves he can hit. If not, they may bring him up as a defensive specialist late in games. OF Ryan Kalish will get a serious look if he can stay healthy. If they do not resign either Varitek or Ortiz, then that would open up a roster spot for C/DH Ryan Lavarnway who has the ability to impress with his bat in 2012.

Holes that Need to be Filled

RF, 4^th & 5^th starter, bullpen arms and possibly a closer.

Now with Valentine’s propensity to platoon players, I could see them not make a move at all and go with both Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick. Otherwise, look for them to pick up someone like Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willingham now that Theo signed David DeJesus to play RF for the Cubs in 2012.

Possible free agent 4^th and 5^th starters could be selected from the following list: Mark Burhle, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Edwin Jackson, Paul Maholm, Roy Oswalt, C.J. Wilson and Chris Young. From this list, Harang’s tendency to be a fly ball pitcher may not do well at home in Boston and it is unclear in Young, Oswalt and Capuano can stay healthy for the entire year. On top of that, I think that Wilson will cost more than he’s worth.

Possible free agent RPs could come from the following list: Todd Coffey, Octavio Dotel, Chad Durbin (who can spot start), Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Chad Qualls (in a set up role and Joel Zumaya (if he can stay healthy).

Possible Trade Bait

The top names I would expect to see traded would be anyone who they can move that refuses to play under Valentine (there have been rumors of player unrest over the selection of Valentine) including Josh Beckett. Other possible options would be Kevin Youkilis, Josh Reddick, Marco Scutaro or Jed Lowrie (depending on which wins the starting SS job in the spring) and Matt Albers (although he may not bring back much on his own). This would happen if Iglesias has a good Spring Training or it allows them to get a decent 4^th or 5^th starter, a right fielder or a quality arm in the bullpen.

Step up to the plate with David Ortiz…
And help make a difference for kids in need.

The fourth-annual David Ortiz Celebrity Golf Classic will bring some of the biggest names in sports to the Dominican Republic this week in support of the slugger’s charitable efforts. Fishing Lodge Cap Cana, a Salamander Caribbean Resort that opened on Oct. 12, 2011, will play host to this year’s events, which includes a celebrity golf classic played at the world-renowned Punta Espada Golf Course in Cap Cana, DR. If you cannot make it to the Dominican Republic for the event there is still a chance to donate and help provide critical care services to children in need.

Image via Wikipedia

Fans can bid in this year’s auction! Bidding is going on now and some of the items that fans will bid on include:
• Hitting lessons from David Ortiz
• The chance to play catch with Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia
• Two (2) tickets for VIP access to Style360, a multi-day fashion showcase during New York Fashion Week
• A thirty (30) minute tennis session with Andy Roddick
• Two (2) US Open Suite tickets for one (1) day session during the first week of the Tournament
• A once-in-a-lifetime vacation for 12 people at the Golden Dolphin Villa located on the North Coast of
the Dominican Republic
• Autographed memorabilia from Red Sox players and other professional sports stars

The online auction bidding will be open until 3:40 p.m. ET on December 3, 2011, where items will then move live to the event. Online bidders will be represented by proxy on-site at the event.

In its first three years, the Classic has netted more than $650,000 and has impacted hundreds of lives in New England and the Dominican Republic.

Which leads to an interesting question for general manager Ben Cherington: what is the ultimate goal to be accomplished with this hire?  The last time the Red Sox had to fill this position, the organization was still licking its wounds from Aaron Boone’s ALCS-clinching home run off of Tim Wakefield in 2003.  Owners John Henry, Larry Lucchino, and Tom Werner were furious with Grady Little’s inability to acknowledge the staggering evidence that Pedro’s arm might as well fall off after 100 pitches in a ballgame.  Grady was an easygoing player’s manager, but faltered in the key aspect.

Enter Terry Francona, a man with former major league managing experience in Philadelphia (a town frequently compared to Boston and New York for their fan bases’ passion towards sharing their opinions).  Here was a guy who could do what Little did and take it one step further.  The result: bye-bye Bambino curse, hello Duck Boat parades in 2004 and 2007.

With those successes under the team and city’s belts, suddenly every September and October game took on added meaning and additional pressure.  The payroll ballooned to meet the demands of a passionate fan base for whom anything less than a championship meant dismal failure, much like their rival brethren four hours down I-95.  Somewhere along the way, with all that money being handed out to Jonathan Papelbon (who refused to talk long-term contract in order to squeeze every dime out of his arbitration years), Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, JD Drew, and so on, the players became too comfortable with their surroundings, as if they owned the place.

The qualities that made Terry Francona such a perfect fit for the job in 2003 were put to the test.  That clubhouse had grown so comfortable with his style that there was little maneuvering left for him to push people into when the team wasn’t going well.  Which brings us to today.

What does this team need in their next skipper?  The curse is gone, a new tradition of winning, not just contending, is in place.  But you have a team that lost their way in both April (don’t forget that horrific 11-15 start that was just as much to blame for the Sox’s position at the end of the year) and September, with the bulk of the team returning for 2012.   So what does this team need to put last year’s demons behind them?

Enter the new manager.  This team needs a new identity, a new chemistry, and a new voice to bring those two things together.  Which is why the pool of candidates is so interesting.

None of these men have an established managerial track record or reputation.  Which is PERFECT for this club.

A blank slate is the best place to start.  This team needs to start from scratch.  While there are still holdovers that have come up through the Red Sox system like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jacoby Ellsbury, this is still a relatively mixed group that has been acquired in recent years like Beckett, Lackey, and Adrian Gonzalez.  This team needs to develop a new identity the way the 2004 Red Sox came up with the “Band of Idiots” moniker.  That team had fun together and subsequently won together.

While the candidates for the job have learned from some of the games best managers (Charlie Manuel in Philly, former Sox pitching Coach John Farrell in Toronto, Jim Leyland in Detroit), they can learn and foster their abilities and team identity with the 25 players in that cramped clubhouse on Yawkey Way.

The Red Sox had self-imposed a deadline of Thanksgiving to have named their next skipper, but with their seeming top choice headed for the North Side of Chicago, it seems they don’t mind taking their time and having a new guy in place by the winter meetings.  It will be interesting to see which face they intend to stamp on that clubhouse as they try to bury the end of last year’s story when they report to Ft. Myers.

The trouble with hiring someone without a track record is we don’t have much to go on as far as predicting what they’ll bring to the table.  The reason is simple: the only people in proper position to judge their characters are Ben Cherington and whoever he brings in the room for the interview.  Nobody necessarily knew what men like Joe Maddon would bring to Tampa or Bud Black to San Diego.

This club needs someone who can be a stoic field boss in leading the troops on the field, can take proper direction from Cherington & Co. on how to deploy the players at his disposal, and help the 25 guys in the clubhouse remember to have fun despite the enormous pressures of playing in Boston.

While this seems like a monumental task, it also seems to be the mold many clubs have built successfully.  Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay is one such example of a guy who understands the philosophies of the front office but has served as a catalyst for his players, leading them to three playoff berths in the past four years despite one of baseball’s lowest payrolls.

The Red Sox will likely continue their hunt for the latest treasure in that mold of manager and hope it will reignite that perfect chemistry between front office, manager, and clubhouse that turned Fenway Park into the powerhouse baseball destination we’ve come to know it as for the past decade.

As Ben Cherington, the new GM for the Boston Red Sox, completes interviews with all of the candidates for the new manager’s job, he and the Red Sox ownership cabal are faced with many considerations. The new skipper will have to be a master of numerous disciplines.

In addition to executing Sabermetrics, the manager will need to have the social and motivational skills to ride herd over what can be a very difficult clubhouse, and the baseball experience to gain the respect of the players. Last, but certainly not least, one of the primary considerations is how much experience the manager possesses managing the media.

When it comes to the media, there are not a lot of towns like Boston (Not to mention media spread out over six New England states that cover the Red Sox).

New York, of course, is the media center of the world, but its media and fans do not work themselves up into the fever pitch that always has existed in Boston about one, and only one, local nine. In Gotham, there are more newspapers, but there are also two baseball teams to cover and other innumerable distractions.

For sheer determination, in the Hub, the white-hot glare of the media is like no other place. There have been players and managers here, too numerous to mention, (okay just two—Edgar Renteria and Grady Little) who have simply melted under the pressure.

Ted Williams famously (and rather sarcastically) called the ink-stained wretches that followed the Red Sox “the Knights of the Keyboard.” Today the Monarchs of the Media that he would have to add would be the intrusive Lancelots of the Lens, The Court of 24-Hour Cable, The Royal Radio Pontificators, the Wolseys of the Web, and the Behemoths of the Blogosphere. There may not be the 10 Boston papers Williams had to deal with, all competing viciously, sometimes making things up and, as Ted would have it, carrying out a vendetta against him, but we have our own megawatt monoliths, in all of their modern incarnations (Regarding making stuff up:  It may have happened recently; think drinking in the dugout).

While discussing the cult of celebrity and connotations of Camelot, it’s interesting to note that Williams may have been the first celebrity to get paparazzi-like harsh treatment from the media, ushering in a new era of media scrutiny in the ’40s and ’50s. Why then, if this was already happening, did the press in the early ’60s give JFK the gloves-off treatment that Williams never received? Perhaps there was a double-standard when it came to politicians and sports figures. Or, in Boston anyway, Williams was not the native son, or not yet the fully adopted son.

Today, generally, the fandom and the public do not have much sympathy for modern athletes and, more recently, managers and coaches suffering from media scrutiny. The sentiment may be, if they squirm a little, so be it. It’s a small price to pay for the benefits that modern athletes reap. But do the managers and the coaches deserve it?

Indeed, the pressure can be enormous. You can criticize Terry Francona for losing control of the Red Sox clubhouse but not for mismanaging the press. He built a reputation for giving the media something, while protecting his players perhaps a little too much, and had the tough skin and right attitude to take it all. Occasionally it was fractious (Prime example:  not-so-subtly reminding a young reporter, probably whose knees were shaking, who made a mistake in referring to him, “I’m not the coach, I’m the manager”). Isn’t it ironic to think that if often Tito took that tone with his players more he might still have a job?

Of course, Francona probably extracted (as in pulling teeth) a few media lessons from the master himself, the wizard of the wayward deflection down on Route 1, the incomparable and incorrigible media savant Bill Belichick. Patriots’ owner Bob Kraft must think that watching Belichick stay on message (or avoid any messages) is worth at least $4 million of the five he pays Belichick annually. For those in the know, it’s a big part of the coach’s skill set and, some might say, his genius.

If you ask the media if they have the same opinion of Belichick you would get a different answer. While there are some that can objectively take a step back and admire his obvious obfuscations, the beat guys and gals can get very frustrated with the Belichickian banter. They have a job to do, and must answer to editors and producers, (and readers, listeners and viewers) who want more information. And Belichick, more often than not, will just not give it to them if it does not suit his purposes.

Woe is the occasional intrepid reporter, often a newcomer who shouts out a follow-up question to a Belichick non-answer, calling him on it, if you will. It can be great theater, usually ending with the curtains going up in flames.

So, as the Red Sox ownerships begins Act Two, and the new manager, whoever he may be, takes center stage, the media considerations are mighty. In Boston, unlike most other places, the spotlight giveth and the spotlight taketh away. Sometimes quickly.

In the immortal words of the head coach of the local football eleven, “It is, what it is.”

Most of these discussions, especially over the airwaves of WEEI sports radio here in Boston, ultimately center around two players: Trot Nixon, the tough-as-nails scrapper who held down right field from 1998 through 2006, and J.D. Drew, the never-lived-up-to-his-potential and oft-injured man who replaced him starting in 2007.

According to notes from Terry Francona’s pregame press conference last Friday, there are new injury concerns with Drew. Already on the DL with a shoulder impingement since July 19th, it would appear as though he’s hurt himself once again while on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket. He suffered an avulsion fracture to his middle finger and now is coping with some neck pain. To most who have watched this team over the lifetime of Drew’s tenure in Boston this is merely more of the same. One has to wonder if this effectively ends his 2011 season and in turn, his Boston career.

So, with Drew’s Boston career coming to an end, it would seem to be the most appropriate timing to settle the great debate and determine which of these two players was the better right fielder.

A first round draft pick (#7 overall) in the 1993 Draft, Nixon worked slowly through the minor leagues, repeating both Double-A and Triple-A in his journey to the Major Leagues. Three consecutive seasons (1994-1996) he was ranked in the Top 50 MLB Prospects by Baseball America. While he wasn’t rushed, the expectations were high as Nixon took over the starting job entering the 1999 season. From 1999 through 2006 he had 3,797 plate appearances over 967 games, an average of 475 PA and 121 G per season.

Drew was also a first round draft pick – twice, technically – and made his MLB debut for the Cardinals just a few weeks after the 1998 Draft. He would immediately take over the bulk of the playing time in right field the following season and would occupy the position for the team until they traded him to the Braves following the 2004 season. Following a season in Atlanta and two in Los Angeles Drew would reach free agency, upon which he signed a five year contract to play for the Boston Red Sox. From 2007 through this season he had 2,364 plate appearances over 602 games, an average of 473 PA and 120 G per season.

As you may have noticed, the two players have nearly identical averages when it comes to plate appearances and games played per season. While Nixon’s time in Boston was longer (in terms of years, games, etc.), the similarity in playing time does open the door to view their statistical numbers on an even plane. So, let’s lay out the two players’ season averages side-by-side:

Across the board Nixon put up better numbers in every category with the exception of walks. However, the differences between the two are minimal. Remember, these are season averages for each player during their tenure with the Red Sox, not overall totals. So taking into consideration an equal amount of playing time it would seem initially that Nixon was the better player solely from a statistical standpoint. However, we know that the discussion must include more factors than a simple look at the two player’s season averages.

Defensively both players were strong fielders – so for the most part this part of the discussion is a moot point. The pair both displayed decent range and solid arms in right field. Some could argue that Nixon was the better fielder because he was a bit more fearless from a defensive standpoint. Nixon is remembered much more for his diving plays and tough-as-nails demeanor in the field. Drew has made his share of diving catches and crashes into the bullpen wall, but his injury plagued career has provided a much different reputation amongst fans.

Drew has long been known, especially by Boston fans, as being a little fragile. Every bump, bruise, or scratch seems to keep him out of the lineup. This trend has plagued Drew his entire career, not just his time in Boston. Yet, considering the amount of money he has been earning his inability to stay on the field has been a source of frustrations for Red Sox fans for much of the past five season. Ultimately this has been one of the most common catalysts for these Nixon vs. Drew discussions.

Using bWAR as part of these discussions, we can see that Nixon was worth roughly 20.5 wins, or 2.05 wins per season (he spent the better part of 10 seasons with the Red Sox). Drew has only been worth 13.2 wins, or 2.64 wins per season (over 5 seasons). From a bWAR standpoint it would seem as though Drew was the more valuable player. So let’s take this one step further.

According to his Baseball Reference page, Nixon earned roughly $27 Million during his time in Boston. Taking his 20.5 bWAR and his total earnings into consideration, Nixon was paid roughly $1.3 Million per win. Drew, on the other hand, will earn $70 Million over his time with the Red Sox, approximately $5.3 Million per win.

In the end, using bWAR gives us a different look depending on what angle we view the statistic from. Nixon had the highest total but Drew had the better season average. Yet, due to salary considerations, Drew was paid far more per win, thus negating some of the value he provided. It would seem that once again the discussion would seem to favor Nixon.

Other factors are much less significant. Drew made it to one All Star Game. Neither player ever garnered serious consideration for any year-end awards during their time in Boston. Both players were able to win the World Series with the Red Sox. Nixon hit .357/.400/.571 with 3 RBI in the 2004 sweep over the Cardinals. Drew hit .333/.412/.467 with 2 RBI in the 2007 win over the Rockies.

Like any comparative discussion, the end results are largely affected by how the information is presented. However, based on the above it would certainly seem as though Nixon was the more valuable player over the lifetime of his Boston Red Sox tenure. He was better, albeit it marginally, from an offensive standpoint over the course of an average season. Defensively he’s remembered for being more fearless. He certainly is remembered more favorably than Drew will be by Boston fans. And the numbers tell the story as well. Nixon was worth more wins at a lower organizational cost.

Right field for the Red Sox has not been consistently filled with a superstar type talent for quite some time, but over the past 15 seasons it would seem safe to say that the production has at least been relatively consistent  from a pure statistical standpoint. Yet, production has been slipping the past few seasons – as Drew isn’t the player Nixon was – and the fanbase of the Red Sox is growing increasingly tired of waiting for things to improve. Perhaps this offseason will begin to shed some light on the situation as we can finally put to bed this great debate.

Perhaps the most fantasy-rich team in baseball with six players in our top 100 (see below), the Red Sox feature an excellent lineup that includes both speed and power.

Key Additions:

Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Taylor Buchholz, Alfredo Aceves,  Max Ramirez

Key Losses:

Victor Martinez, Adrian Beltre, Bill Hall

Projected Lineup:

1. CF—Jacoby Ellsbury (L)

2. 2B—Dustin Pedroia (R)

3. LF—Carl Crawford (L)

4. 1B—Adrian Gonzalez (L)

5. 3B—Kevin Youkilis (R)

6. DH—David Ortiz (L)

7. RF—J.D. Drew (L)

8. C—Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)

9. SS—Marco Scutaro (R)

There’s been much debate over who will hit where, but this order makes the most sense. Pedroia fits nicely in the two hole. Crawford isn’t an ideal No. 3 hitter, but leading off with him would bump Ellsbury to nine, significantly cutting into the at-bats of a career .291 hitter.

Four of the top five hitters in this projected lineup have a career batting average above .290; Gonzalez is the odd man out with a career .284 batting clip. Gonzalez also boasts 40-HR power, and may even push for 50 now that he’s finally free of Petco Park.

Projected Rotation:

1. LHP Jon Lester

2. RHP Clay Buchholz

3. RHP Josh Beckett

4. RHP John Lackey

5. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka

Jon Lester’s three-year averages (17 wins, 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.72 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 in 207 innings per) make him a legitimate Cy Young contender and a bonafide fantasy ace.

Clay Buchholz is due for a major regression in 2011 after posting the lowest ERA (2.33) for an A.L. East pitcher since Pedro Martinez’s 2.22 mark in 2003. His BABIP (.261), FIP (3.61) and xFIP (4.20) scream fluke. Also, Buchholz’s strikeout (6.22) and walk (3.47) rates were both below the league average in 2010. He’s more realistically a 3.50 pitcher at this point in his career. Without useful strikeout totals, the 26-year-old doesn’t warrant his current 99 ADP on Mock Draft Central.

Josh Beckett was bad in 2011. Real bad. His 5.78 ERA was third-worst among starters with at least 120 innings. His strikeout rate (8.18) declined slightly, while his walk rate (3.17) was by far the highest it’s been since 2006. He spent 65 days on the DL due to a back injury, and was hardly worth a roster spot by September, allowing 19 earned runs in 16 innings during a three-start stretch in August.

Luckily, there is reason for hope. Unfortunately, Beckett’s post season career has painted a false portrait of him. He had one outstanding season in 2007, posting a 3.27 ERA with stellar peripherals. His ERA in 2008 and 2009? 4.06 and 3.86, respectively. His career ERA? 3.96. His 2010 xFIP (4.01) suggests a return to normalcy is likely, while his BABIP (.338) and LOB rate (65.3 percent) suggest luck played a role in his career-worst 2010 season.

John Lackey also suffered arguably the worst season of his career in 2010, though there are signs of revival. While his strikeout and walk rates have steadily deteriorated in recent seasons, his .319 BABIP, 69.3 percent LOB, and 3.85 FIP (compared to his 4.40 ERA) all suggest a shred of poor luck. Although he’s no longer the 3.00-3.50 pitcher he was between ‘05 and ‘07 with the Angels, he remains capable of a 4.00 ERA with decent win totals as a No. 4 starter on perhaps the best team in baseball.

Dice-K’s strikeout rate (career 8.33) is appealing, but his horrific walk rate (career 4.27) and lack of durability aren’t worth the risk.

Projected Bullpen:

RHP Jonathan Papelbon (closer)

RHP Daniel Bard

RHP Bobby Jenks

RHP Dan Wheeler

RHP Tim Wakefield

LHP Hideki Okajima or LHP Rich Hill or LHP Dennys Reyes

Papelbon’s 2010 ERA (3.90) was double that of his previous career ERA of 1.84. Yet his 2010 strikeout total (76 in in 67 innings) was identical to that of 2009 (76 in 68 innings). Further, he walked just 28 batters last year opposed to 24 in 2009. His BABIP didn’t change much (.278 vs. 287), and his ground-ball rate actually improved (26.7% to 38.3%). The only real difference was in the timeliness of the hits allowed, as his LOB rate fell from 89.3 percent in 2009 to 68.7 percent last year. (Shout out to Rotowire’s Dalton Del Don for digging these stats up.) I’m convinced last year was a fluke.

Just in case Papelbon falters, the Red Sox have Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenkswho are both capable of closing games. Bard is thought to be the future closer. Both he and Jenks are likely to accumulate gobs of holds this season.

Sleepers:

On a team as stacked as the Red Sox, it’s difficult to find anyone who qualifies as a sleeper. In fact, every Boston player has a target on his back. If I was forced to choose, I might go out on a limb and say Jarrod Saltalamacchia could finally gain fantasy relevance, tapping into double-digit power with a .250 batting average. He’ll only be worth owning in deep leagues.

Rookies to Watch:

The Red Sox don’t have much room for rookies, so none of their prospects are likely to gain fantasy relevance this year. Southpaw Felix Doubront could win a bullpen spot, but his fantasy value will be limited there. Ryan Kalish would likely fill in should J.D Drew fall to injury, but for now he shouldn’t be on anyone’s radar.

Player Projections:

• Adrian Gonzalez
• Carl Crawford
• Kevin Youkilis
• Dustin Pedroia
• Jon Lester
• Jacoby Ellsbury

Be sure to check back tomorrow as we continue our in-depth fantasy preview of all 30 MLB teams!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• No. 81: Yovani Gallardo

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 

Photo taken by George Campbell who also wrote this article

In Monday’s Red Sox / Orioles game, Darnell McDonald kicked off the Red Sox ninth inning rally with a double. It brought the crowd to their feet as they appreciated what Darnell does for this team. He came into the game as a substitute and delivered when his name was called. The Sox would win the game 6-5 after being down a run in the eighth inning.

After bouncing around with ten different minor league teams since 1998, McDonald has found a home with the Red Sox. He had brief major league stints with the Orioles, Twins and Reds over the years before finally landing with the Sox in 2010. He certainly made the best of his opportunity in 2010, and became a fan favorite as a back-up player in Boston.

Darnell hit a surprising .412 in his first spring training with the Sox last year, eventually earning the fourth outfielder role for the team, behind Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron and JD Drew. As it turned out, Ellsbury and Cameron spent much of the year on the DL, opening a spot for McDonald to play 117 games, more than twice what he had played in the majors before 2010. He was versatile in the outfield, playing 69 games in center, 34 in right and 30 in left. He was versatile at the plate too. In his 363 plate appearances he batted .270 with 18 doubles, nine homeruns and nine stolen bases.

With the addition of Carl Crawford to the Red Sox already potent outfield this year, Darnell appears to be Boston’s fifth outfielder. He is embracing this role, but he doesn’t refer to it as the fifth outfielder, his role is really just to be ready for anything.

“My role is to be ready when my name is called,” Darnell said.  “Basically that’s what I did last year, stay ready, you never know when your name’s gonna be called. The main thing for me is to stay ready, that’s pretty much what my role is.”

He has appeared in six of the team’s first nine spring training games and is batting .286.

“It’s going well, I’m just trying to get in the swing of things, stay healthy and get ready for the season,” McDonald explained. “As a hitter, we’re all just trying to work on the same thing, getting used to seeing live pitching again, working on our timing and putting some good swings on the ball.”

He is happy to be a part of this team, one that is favored by many to have a great year.

“Everyone feels like we have the opportunity to do something special this year. Everyone is focused and ready to start the season.”

Nobody can predict how many games Darnell will appear in this year, but whatever the number, he plans to be ready.