Photo taken from Google Images

Hello all, my name is Jimmy Moberg and I will be giving you a monthly update from a fans perspective this season on the Minnesota Twins. I will air my frustrations and joy at the decisions of the Twins and the way that they are playing. There will also be some insights, I am sure, on the happenings of the rest of the league mixed in. Now on the off-season recap and look at Spring Training, hope you enjoy.

This has been one of the more daunting off-seasons that I remember as a Twins fan. Some big names that were due new contracts or else they were going to leave. Injury concerns to other stars. Development tracking on prospects and front office moves that always happen. All of that was expected.

Image by Neal Portnoy of www.idrawpeople.com

Now for what all actually did happen:

- Terry Ryan in and Bill Smith out as GM

- Cuddyer, Kubel, Nathan, and Mijares gone to Free Agency

- Slowey traded for a prospect/internal cap space

- Arrival of Zumaya, Willingham, Carroll, and Marquis among others

- Mauer announcing full health and Morneau starting “baseball activites”

- Sano and Hicks make preseason top prospect lists

With a 63-99 final record last season, most Twins fans where left wondering what happened to their team. One large part of the answer was injuries. Mauer played the fewest games since 2004, his first year in MLB, with just 82 and that was after what most fans called a disappointing 2010 season. Morneau missed over half of his second consecutive season with concussion symptoms. Denard Span missed over half of the season also with a myriad of injuries that included a concussion that ended 2011 early for him. The brand new big money import 2B/SS Nishioka missed a large chunk of games early because of a broken leg. Our starting rotation seemed to have a separate rotation of their own in response to further injuries and there was no consensus on the closer role because of Joe Nathan’s recovery from Tommy John’s Surgery. With all of that listed in front of me, I’m kind of surprised that the Twins stayed relevant to the All-Star break before finishing with almost 100 losses.

To say that all of the woes of last season were resulting from injuries is just wrong. Most fans have noticed a marked change in the Twins’ front office strategy for player personnel since moving into Target Field. Now don’t get me wrong, I have been screaming for years to have the organization start spending money on players, but the way that it happened is firmly what I believe lead to bringing Terry Ryan back as the General Manager. Nothing against Bill Smith but $14.3M for an unproven foreign player and then make him switch positions. Who really thought that was a good idea? I like Nishi, but at 2B where he is used to playing and seeing the field. I did like the move of locking Mauer up to a long-term contract but you have to still allow some space for spending on other areas of the team like pitching. What used to be a strength for the Twins was a huge liability all last season with our pitching and defense severely lacking.

Enough about last year that caused the fans to start looking towards “Next Season” for the first time since ‘07. Time to prepare for this season and look towards the future. The Twins have made some moves to replace the loss of some long time fan favorites, some I like and others are head scratchers. The Jamey Carroll pick up should help Gardenhire to move Nishi back to his preferred 2B position and give us a go to everyday double play combo. Jason Marquis should help a rotation that right now looks like Pavano and Liriano, but after that you have Diamond (who has to stay with the Twins because he was a Rule 5 pick), Baker, Blackburn, and Duensing. Zumaya should be great in the setup role if he can return from his broken elbow. Doumit should help Mauer stay healthy and provide a capable replacement in case of injury. Lastly Willingham should prove to be able to replace Cuddy in right but not his versatility.

Here is what positional lineup of how I see the Twins starting this year if all are healthy:

C - Joe Mauer

1B- Justin Morneau

2B- Tsuyoshi Nishioka

SS- Jamey Carroll

3B- Danny Valencia

LF- Denard Span

CF- Ben Revere

RF- Josh Willingham

DH- Chris Parmalee

Starting Pitchers

Carl Pavano

Francisco Liriano

Scott Baker

Scott Diamond

Nick Blackburn

Set Up Man - Joel Zumaya

Closer - Matt Capps

Some of the guys on the bench will be Rene Tosoni, Ryan Doumit, Sean Burroughs and 2 out of Casilla/Tolbert/Plouffe/Hughes. Duensing and Marquis will be the first looks if any starters get hurt or just can’t get the job done. Parmalee could start at 1B if Morneau isn’t ready in time or needs a day off and be one of the big pinch hitters with Burroughs.

This season I am optimistic because frankly the Twins cannot get much worse than they were last year. With the M & M boys getting healthy again and with Terry Ryan back as GM to renew the focus on developing talent, I see improvement. I just don’t see us getting back to the playoffs unless Detroit is nailed with injuries we had last year (already lost Victor Martinez for the year). I do see the Twins competing for the #2 spot in the Central again. The dynamic could change in the division any year though because the Royals keep improving, the Indians seem to be making strides and Chicago has to get used to a new manager after the departure of Ozzie to Miami.

Don’t agree, fully agree or just some things to point out to me, just let me know. I welcome all comments.

I now see that it is much easier doing one of these with at least one more person like on the BBA Baseball Talk podcasts or online with the guys over at Pro Rumors TV.

Either way, I hope you enjoy this & I’ll work on improving this as I do more of these solo webcasts thanks to my new laptop with the built in webcam!

So without further ado, on with the webcast…

Sorry for the delay…we have some technical difficulties with YouTube earlier that had to wait until I got home from work. I went 2:05 over the allowed 15 minute time frame.

American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions from Peter Schiller on Vimeo.

This 17 minute webcast (my first) is my American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions.

Please let me know if you think it is too long.
Thanks!

As is the case with all other teams, health is the first key to success. The close second, though, would be the effectiveness of the starting rotation. The Twins lack a clear ace, although they have no fewer than three very capable No. 2 or No. 3 starters along with a plethora of No. 5 options.

Scott Baker has been named the Opening Day starter, with Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, and most probably Francisco Liriano rounding up the rotation. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak will both be waiting in the wings, however, should anyone struggle.

Minnesota shouldn’t have a problem scoring runs, but the key to a successful season will be the starting rotation.

Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

I haven’t done any real projections lately, but I would say the Twins will have a final record of 90-72 and finish first in the AL Central. They will defeat their ALDS opponent in five games, but fall in the ALCS in five games.

Photo by Icon SMI

If you haven’t already heard, Francisco Liriano appears to be back to his old self. After putting up a 0.80 ERA in just under 50 innings of work in the Domincan Winter League, Liriano has impressed scouts to no end. He struck out over eleven batters per nine innings, while walking a total of five. You would be hard-pressed to find a scout that doesn’t believe Liriano is a prime candidate for a breakout season in 2010.

Although I don’t claim to be anything close to an expert, I compiled three pitches from Liriano from throughout his short career. The first one is from July 4 of 2009, against the Detroit Tigers. The second one is a bullpen pitch from Spring Training in 2008, and the third one is from last night, in the final game of the Dominican Winter League.

(Video courtesy of espn360.com, twinsbaseball.com, and an amateur clip picked up off YouTube)

(As you can tell by the video, this is an amateur attempt in every sense of the word. I simply captured these three clips, slowed them down a little, and uploaded them via the ever-helpful Photobucket. The frame counts I reference later were counted by slowing the videos down much more, but those versions weren’t uploaded. Also, this is a .wmv format. The “real” scouts combine dozens of stills into a .gif. The “analysis” that follows is very much from an untrained eye, and should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. If you have some expertise to add, please leave it in the comments or shoot me an email!)

By slowing down the most recent video further, I counted a total of 26 frames from the balance point — right before the knee begins to fall — to the release of the ball. This was the same in the July 4, 2009 game. According to the Baseball Think Factory, Liriano boasted an incredibly quick 22-frame delivery in 2006, when he was obviously at his best. From what I’ve learned, a faster delivery is better because of the increased momentum a pitcher can utilize as he releases the ball.

Photo by Icon SMI

Other than this tempo discrepancy, most of Liriano’s delivery remains the same (again, according to my very untrained eye). The number of frames from when Liriano lifts his left arm to the release of the ball has remained consistent (11 or 12 frames), his elbow leads his arm and is seen at a horizontal angle, his knees bend and his rump moves to the right (“sitting down,” as some scouts call it), and his right arm has remained firm throughout the years.

Liriano lives and dies by his slider. In 2006, he was pitching quick and was throwing his slider as fast as he could, which gave him a slider 23 runs above average. After his injury that year, though, the Twins tried to slow him down and extend his delivery to better protect against injury risk. As a result of this, Liriano’s slider was not as dominant as before (single-digit value), and his confidence took a free-fall.

This is baseball ethics at their finest. Should a pitching coach allow his pitcher to throw an extremely effective pitch that puts him at an injury risk (which could be relatively insignificant for Liriano after his surgery), or should he protect his pitcher, no matter the cost? In Liriano’s case, not being allowed to throw the way he did in 2006 could spell an end to his career — in Minnesota, at least.

Liriano has one of the highest potentials of any pitcher currently on the 40-man roster. Having his future decided by whether or not pitching coach Rick Anderson and manager Ron Gardenhire allow him to throw hard is disconcerting, to say the least.

But watching him throw his slider without holding back during the Dominican Winter League was extremely enjoyable. If he doesn’t succeed with the Twins, I wish him the best of luck with another organization.

What do you think? Will the Twins allow Liriano to throw the way he did in 2006, or will they slow him down again in 2010? What is your statistical projection for Liriano in 2010? Be sure to let us know in the comment section!

Kansas City Royals

Unfortunately, they’re right where everyone thought they would be come August. Dead last in the AL Central. They have a solid closer, SP Zack Greinke has proved to be a solid starter as well and Jose Guillen has proved that he can still hit. Beyond that, the Royals have a very young team that needs to mature and couldn’t hurt to gain a few veterans along the way to help round things out. I don’t see them climbing out of the basement of this division in the near future.

Cleveland Indians

The have clearly given up on 2008. They released former closer Joe Borkowski, traded away 3B Casey Blake and last year’s Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia. Granted, they were hit hard by injuries to Victor Martinez (C/1B), Travis Haffner (DH) and ever Fausto Carmona (SP) for a spell. Some bright spots can be seen as the play of C Kelly Shoppach, RP Rafael Betancourt and the amazing year that SP Cliff Lee is having. A healthy 2009 can see them back above .500 and possibly in the hunt for the division with a good off season.

Detroit Tigers

What happened here?! They are knocking in more runs than anyone else in their division, but they still do not have the pitching that can sustain those leads their bats can provide them with. Outside of the surprising year that Armando Galarraga (SP) is having and Justin Verlander, who has been shaky at times this year, they don’t have anyone else they can count on. Kenny Rogers is finally showing his age (43) and others in the bullpen can’t seem to stay healthy (Zumaya, Jones) and Bonderman’s injury sure didn’t help matters either. I won’t even include Dontrelle Willis here until 2009 if he can get back to form.

This has become a 2 Team Race

Minnesota Twins

They may not have Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Carlos Silva or Matt Garza anymore but the Twins still find themselves neck and neck with the Sox for the central division lead. Instead, they have Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins. They also have the reigning Home Run Derby winner in 1B Justin Moureau with a complimentary cast of C Joe Mauer, Closer Joe Nathan, et al. It is my opinion that pitching wins in baseball, but I just don’t know if their offense is good enough to overtake Chicago. Unfortunately, RF Michael Cuddyer has been injured most of the year, which has hurt them in the middle of their line up.

Chicago White Sox

They have strength in their starting rotation with Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, John Danks and Gavin Floyd with Octavio Dotel as their set up man and Bobby Jenks to close out games. Then they have a ton of hitting with C A.J. Pierzynski, 1B/OF Nick Swisher, 1B Paul Konerko, DH Jim Thome, SS Orlando Cabrera, LF Carlos Quentin, CF and newly acquired Ken Griffey Jr. (and future Hall of Famer) and RF Jermaine Dye. All I have to say is wow! They are my choice to take this division due to their offence and if their starting pitching can hold out.

1.      Tigers : They might have arguably the best line-up in all of baseball 1-9, but their pitching, in my opinion, is suspect past the first three starters and especially their bullpen! As good as their hitting will/should be in ’08, their pitching might be the great neutralizer. Outside of Verlander, there are some concerns. Can Bonderman last a full season? Will D-Train find his former form and be effective once again? Can Kenny Rogers go one more year into his 40’s? Only time will tell. Look for new 3B Cabrera to be in the running for the AL MVP this year! 

2.      Indians : If it wasn’t for the Renteria and M. Cabrera/Willis deals, the Tribe would have a shot at this division, but the Tigers just have too much fire power! In my opinion, the Tribe has the better pitching staff of the two, they just have to manage the innings better for Sabathia & Carmona due to how tired they looked in the playoffs last year. Their bullpen, aside from their closer, whom I don’t trust in that role, is like night and day compared to the Tiger’s pen! Their line-up only has 2 question marks, but they’re at the corner OF slots which are typically your power spots! 

3.      White Sox : Last year’s poor hitting, in my opinion, was a fluke! To have that many bats with histories that prove my point, are reason to believe that the White Sox have no place to go but up in this weaker Central Division. Plus with the additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher, you can see signs of improvement on the offense as precautions.  

4.      Twins : Losing the pitching trio of Santana, Garza & Silva will be sorely missed in 2008, but Liriano, if healthy, will make the transition a little more bearable. Just keep in mind that Liriano probably won’t be as good in ’08 as he is likely to be in 2009 after this type of injury. There was also the loss of Torii Hunter in CF also, but they still have Mauer (C), Morneau (1B), Cuddyer (RF) and Delmond Young (LF)! And a better supporting cast made up of Brendan Harris (2B), Mike Lamb (3B), Closer Joe Nathan and one of the best defensive SS in the game today in Adam Everett. But he can’t hit his weight…scratch that, he only weighs 178lbs so he beats that by 70 points on average, but he’s also in the AL now & that career BA was in the NL, so it might drop to a mere .228 this year as he makes the adjustment (see J.D. Drew in Boston last year). 

5.      Royals : Their strength comes from their top three starters in Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke and their closer, Joakim Soria, is a talented young pitcher as well. The problem here lies in a thrown together bullpen, then again, most MLB bullpen with a few exceptions, have that thrown together feel to them. If they can just get from those three starters to Soria, then they have a chance to improve! On the offensive, their strength is in C John Buck, LF Mark Teahen & RF Jose Guillen with up and comers 1B/DH Billy Butler, SS Tony Pena, Jr. and 3B Alex Gordon. If those last three can live up to their potential, then the Royals might be more of a threat to the Twins and the Sox, but are a far cry from the Tigers and the Indians.