Photo taken of Daniel Hudson from Zimbio via Google Images

For all intents and purposes, the NL West race is over. Improbably, the Diamondbacks sit at the top of the division, a year after finishing dead last in the division and 27 games out of the playoff picture. Back in June, I said that I expected the D’Backs to stay in the race, but at that time it was still the Giants’ race to lose. Fortunately for Arizona, that’s what they did, as the champs are just 37-41 since that post, while the Diamondbacks are an incredible 48-30.

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As with most teams, this turnaround can’t be attributed to a single player. Justin Upton is in the thick of the MVP race, and Miguel Montero has been one of the top catchers in the NL. The historically bad bullpen of 2010 has been reworked and currently sits at sixth in the NL in WAR, thanks to a combination of free agent signings (J.J. Putz), trades (David Hernandez), and essentially every other way a team could go about an overhaul, including adding impressive Rule V draft pick Joe Paterson. However, the team’s rotation has led the way, and after finishing 12th in NL starter WAR last season, the Diamondbacks’ rotation has risen to sixth with the 2011 regular season nearly complete.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Specifically, three of Arizona’s starters deserve credit for stepping their games up. Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy have continued their development and cemented themselves as true staff aces, while rookie Josh Collmenter’s deceptive delivery and impressive control have allowed him to provide a solid third option on the mound.

Hudson, 24, flashed his impressive skills last season on the way to a 3.64 SIERA and 2.3 WAR in 14 starts for the White Sox and Diamondbacks. Hudson moved to Arizona just before the trade deadline in exchange for Edwin Jackson in a deal orchestrated by interim GM Jerry Dipoto. Hudson’s absurd 1.69 ERA was fueled by incredible (and unsustainable) underlying numbers, especially his .216 BABIP against and 91.5% strand rate. However, 2011’s 3.41 ERA is essentially luck-neutral, as Hudson’s 3.56 SIERA shows that he’s for real. His strikeout rate has fallen by nearly a batter per game, but this dip has been offset by large improvements in both his walk rate and groundball rate. After a slight drop in his velocity last season, Hudson is once again averaging 93 MPH on his fastball, and has increased his velocity on the rest of his arsenal as well. Whether this is due to improved strength, conditioning, mechanics, or some other factor is unclear. Whatever the case may be, Hudson’s stuff is getting better, and his improved walk rate suggests he’s also learning the art of pitching. At only 24, Hudson has a lot of career in front of him. If he can continue this career trajectory, it’ll spell trouble for the rest of the NL West.

Sharing ace duties with Hudson, Ian Kennedy has reinvented himself in the desert. Kennedy’s 2.4 WAR in 32 starts last year wasn’t particularly impressive, but it was certainly a step forward from his early career struggles. As a top prospect in the Yankees’ organization, Kennedy was under the microscope, and may have had trouble handling the pressure. Though 2010 was a success as Kennedy’s first full season in the starting rotation, it was only an appetizer for what he has provided the Snakes this season. No matter the metric, Kennedy looks like a true ace this year. Like Hudson, Kennedy has done a better job of limiting his walks and inducing grounders, but unlike Hudson, it hasn’t been at the expense of his strikeouts, as he’s up to nearly eight K’s per nine innings. From his 3.34 SIERA to his 19-4 record, the old-school and new-school numbers are in complete agreement on Kennedy’s dominance this season.

Though both Kennedy and Hudson’s seasons are a positive development for Arizona, neither is a complete surprise, as both have shown impressive potential at various points earlier in their respective careers. More surprising is the success of soft-tossing rookie Josh Collmenter. Collmenter’s fastball is averaging 87.4 MPH, and he hasn’t thrown a pitch harder than 90 all season. Nonetheless, Collmenter has thrown the pitch nearly 70% of the time to great effect, as his deceptive mechanics make his fastball-changeup combo much more effective than his pedestrian velocity would suggest they should be. Though he won’t blow any of his pitches by hitters (7.9% swinging strike rate, below league average), he has found ways to be effective without pure stuff. With crafty pitching and consistent command, Collmenter has been a solid addition to the back of the team’s rotation, putting up a 3.55 FIP and 3.94 SIERA. Behind the team’s two young aces, he’s done exactly what the team has asked of him, and as a result the rookie might very well get a chance to fulfill his lifelong dream of making an October start.

We can’t point to any one reason for the Diamondbacks’ worst-to-first turnaround, as they’ve made huge strides on both sides of the ball and from the top to the bottom of the roster. However, their rotation seems to be leading the way, as Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson have been a dominant tandem at the top of the rotation and Collmenter has filled in admirably behind them. More help is on the way, as the word on the street is that third overall pick in the 2011 draft Trevor Bauer and top prospect Jarrod Parker will get called up for a taste of the pennant chase sooner rather than later. If both are ready to join the D’Backs rotation full-time in 2012, Arizona’s starting staff will be a force to be reckoned with. However, thanks to Kennedy and Hudson, Arizona is still focused on 2011, where their young aces will lead them into the playoffs as they hope to catch some October magic.

Manager Kirk Gibson photo by Icon SMI

In addition to removing the interim tag from manager Kirk Gibson‘s title, here
are the major changes precipitated by the Towers hiring:

General Manager

Old: Jerry Dipoto (interim)  New: Kevin Towers

Towers was named GM on September 22, narrowly beating out Dipoto, the other
finalist.  Dipoto was offered another role in the organization.
Eventually, he accepted.

Assistant General Manager

Old: Peter Woodfork  New: Jerry Dipoto

Dipoto’s new position is actually “vice president of
scouting and player personnel.”  Whatever the title, Dipoto will serve as
Towers’ right-hand man in much the same way as Woodfork did for departed GM Josh
Byrnes.

Director of Player Development

Old: Mike Berger  New: Rico Brogna

Brogna had served as a scout for the D-backs from 2006-2009 before becoming
manager of the Double-A Mobile BayBears this past season.  He was also the
interim Minor League field coordinator in 2008.  Berger has been reassigned
to Director of Professional Scouting, which is a position beneath the overall
Director of Scouting (see below).

Assistant Director of Player Development

Old: None New: Quinton McCracken

This is a new position within the organization.  McCracken spent four years
roaming the outfield as an Arizona Diamondback, but has no front office
experience.

Scouting Director

Old: Tom Allison New: Ray Montgomery

In the biggest head-scratcher move of the bunch, Allison was relieved of his
head scouting duties after four extremely successful drafts.  His
replacement worked as the Milwaukee Brewers‘ Midwest cross-checker from 2007-10,
and Montgomery also served as Milwaukee’s assistant director of amateur scouting
in each of the last two seasons.  Allison had worked for seven seasons as a
Brewers’ scouting cross-checker prior to joining the D-backs for the 2007
season.

Photo of new Bench Coach Alan Trammell by Icon SMI

Bench Coach

Old: Bo Porter New: Alan Trammell

Porter began the 2010 season as the D-backs’ third base coach, then replaced
Gibson as bench coach once Gibson was named interim manager.  Trammell
played alongside Gibson on a dozen Detroit Tigers teams spanning three decades,
and Gibson had been Trammell’s bench coach for the three seasons that Trammell
managed the Tigers (2003-2005).  The past four seasons, Trammell has been
bench coach of the Chicago Cubs.

“I’ve probably talked more baseball with Alan Trammell than anybody since I’ve
been involved in the game,” Gibson said in a conference call.  “We have
similar beliefs and philosophies.”

Hitting Coach

Old: Jack Howell  New: Don Baylor

Howell’s dismissal was unsurprising, as he had taken a lot of heat for Arizona’s
setting a new record for team strikeouts in one season.  Baylor has nine
years of  managerial experience with the Cubs and Rockies, but has always
enjoyed greater acclaim for his work as a hitting coach.  As a player,
Baylor notably hit 338 home runs in his career without once ranking among the
top 10 in his league in strikeouts.

Pitching Coach

Old: Mel Stottlemyre Jr.  New: Charles Nagy

Stottlemyre Jr. was offered another role in the organization, but there is no
word on what position nor whether he has accepted.  He had previously
served as minor league pitching coordinator, a role now manned by Jeff Pico.
Nagy was the pitching coach for Triple-A Columbus of the Cleveland Indians
organization this past season, and pitched in three postseasons with the Indians
in the 90s.

First Base Coach

Old: Matt Williams  New: Eric Young

Young served as minor league outfield/baserunning coordinator for the Houston
Astros in 2010.  His 465 career stolen bases is tied for 44th all-time and
ranks third among players whose careers began after 1990.  Williams shifts
across the diamond for 2011.

Third Base Coach

Old: Joel Youngblood  New: Matt Williams

Youngblood was offered another role in the organization, but there is no word on
what position nor whether he has accepted.  He had previously served as the
D-backs’ minor league outfield/baserunning coordinator.

“We feel like we’ve added a lot of experience to the coaching staff,” concluded
Towers in a conference call.

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Last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks began the season unable to generate any
offense whatsoever despite playing in one of the best hitter’s parks in all of
baseball.  They hit .231/.308/.394 as a team during the month of April,
resulting in the dismissal of the coaching staff and wholesale changes to the composition to the roster.  New manager A.J. Hinch, who had no prior managerial experience, didn’t find acceptance from his players or success until late in the summer.

But the D-backs did have success, going 29-26 in the months of July and August before tailing off again in September.  The difference in those months was the team’s offense: a .776 July OPS and a .791 August OPS for a team that could not manage an OPS of .740 in any other month.  The Snakes certainly had problems on the mound all year with the absence of Brandon Webb causing a chain reaction to the entire staff, but when the offense was clicking, the D-backs were still a winning team.

This is very good news, because even though Arizona’s pitching staff isn’t going to be any better than it was last year, they have an offense built to score runs consistently throughout the season.

Part of the reason the offense clicked beginning in late June was that Miguel Montero became the starting catcher around that time.  From June 27 onwards, Montero posted a .912 OPS, making him one of the elite offensive catchers in all of baseball.  His defense also took a big step forward, as only two catchers saved more runs than he did defensively last year, according to John Dewan’s Runs Saved system.

The trouble is that Chris Snyder joined Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy, and Chris Young as players that general manager Josh Byrnes signed to long-term contract extensions despite their having shown only brief success.  While some large market teams wouldn’t be crippled by having a defensive catcher of Snyder’s caliber as a backup at $11.25 million over the next two seasons, the small-market D-backs are desperate to deal him, particularly with minor league catchers John Hester, Sean Coughlin, and Konrad Schmidt each looking like
capable big league backups at the very least.  To that end, Chris Snyder is going to take a lot of at-bats away from Montero in the early going in order to showcase his health and make him tradable.

Recent long-term extensions were also given to Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, although these moves do not figure to backfire.  Just 22-years old, Upton was the best overall right fielder in the game last year and has a Hall of Fame career ahead of him.  Reynolds, 26, is more of a risk with his
inconsistent defense and tendency to set the all-time strikeout record every year.  Nevertheless, Reynolds possesses some of the best raw power in all of baseball and can draw walks and steal bases to boot.

Add to Montero, Upton, and Reynolds a first baseman in Adam LaRoche who has averaged 66 extra base hits a year over the past four seasons, and you have an offense that is in business.  LaRoche could even wind up having a career year at the age of 30, as he is playing in a hitter’s park now and is coming off consecutive 25-homer campaigns.  At the very least, he is an immeasurable upgrade over the first basemen Arizona used last year that combined to bat just
.229.

After that fearsome foursome, the D-backs plan to start four position players who were disappointments in 2009, but who are each still young enough to have bounce-back seasons to regain their former glory.

Stephen Drew wasn’t actually bad last year, but after he finished the 2008 season so very strong, the D-backs were expecting nothing less than an All-Star season and received nothing more than a solid contribution instead.  At age 27, Drew should be one of the better offensive shortstops in the league once again this season, although it appears that he may never be the superstar he was
billed as.

Left Fielder Conor Jackson has had an excellent spring, which is an encouraging sign from someone who missed most of 2009 due to illness.  He turns 28 in May, and if he can repeat the .376 on-base percentage he managed at age 26, this team is going to score a ton of runs.  Hinch plans to rotate Jackson and Drew in the 1-2 spots in the batting order.  That duo won’t steal many bases, but they shouldn’t need to with the guys slated to hit behind them.

Second baseman Kelly Johnson has declined since his excellent 2007 season, culminating in a disastrous .224 batting average last year.  Like fellow former Atlanta Brave Adam LaRoche, Johnson should benefit from hitting in the
desert.  The 28-year-old second-sacker might also do better hitting at the bottom of the order, as his career splits suggest.

At 26, Chris Young is the youngest of these four comeback candidates, but he has also had the least prior success.  In over 1900 major league plate appearances, Young is a .235 career hitter with a .307 OBP.  He’ll hit some homers whenever a pitcher is foolish enough to throw him a fastball and steal some bases on the rare occasions that he reaches base safely, but this isn’t someone from whom you should expect much production.  Fortunately, all the D-backs expect from him at this point is that he covers Chase Field’s spacious centerfield with his excellent speed.

If even two of those four players have renaissance seasons, the D-backs should have one of the top five offenses in the National League. If a couple of those fours continue their downward offensive spiral, it won’t be a complete disaster, as the D-backs have a lot more depth than they did a year ago. So much so that super-utilityman Ryan Roberts will begin the season in the
minors after leading the D-backs with a .367 on-base percentage last year. Rusty Ryal grabbed the super utility role from Roberts by slugging .600 this spring to show that his 20 homers, 8 triples, and 39 doubles combined between Reno and Arizona last year were no fluke.  Fourth outfielder Gerrardo Parra hit .290 last season and won’t turn 23 until May.  Middle infielder Tony
Abreu hit .345 this spring and finished second on the club with 14 RBI.

With Roberts, Hester, and big first base prospect Brandon Allen also waiting at Triple-A Reno, this is a Diamondbacks team that can sustain quite a bit of unexpected injury or ineffectiveness among their position players and still have a productive lineup.

Unfortunately, that position player depth is not matched on the pitching staff.  The Diamondbacks dealt away young phenom Max Scherzer, citing him as an injury risk.  Oddly enough, they dealt him (along with top bullpen prospect Daniel Schlereth) for two even bigger injury risks in Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy.  Not only do those two pitchers combine for only four successful major league months between them, but Jackson was one of the most overworked pitchers in baseball last year and Kennedy already has an injury history at the age of 25.

Jackson and Kennedy would be nice pitchers to have at the bottom of your rotation, but because the organization failed to replace workhorses Jon Garland and Doug Davis and because Webb’s surgically repaired shoulder is healing behind
schedule, those are the team’s number two and number three starters to begin the season.  Granted, the rotation is going to look a lot better once Webb has rejoined the fold, but by that time, there is a good chance that either Kennedy or Jackson has fallen prey to an injury themselves.

To be honest, the D-backs’ postseason chances died the minute that Rodrigo Lopez was named the team’s fourth starter.  At this stage in his career, the 34-year old Lopez should be a Triple-A starter that gets called up only if disaster strikes the big league rotation and he has proven himself over the span of a few months.  Instead, based on five solid spring starts, the D-backs will turn to Lopez every four games until a fifth starter is added to the rotation on April 17.  And let me tell you, the selections available to fill that role – Billy Buckner, Kris Benson, Kevin Mulvey, and Bryan Augenstein – don’t exactly inspire much confidence at this point in their respective
careers.

Dan Haren has established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, but even more so than last year, he will be the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal rotation.

The D-backs think they improved their bullpen by acquiring veterans Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman, but those two will be hard-pressed to improve upon the production of Jon Rauch and Tony Pena, both of whom got dealt late last year. Much like the Ryan Roberts head-scratcher, southpaw Clay Zavada will begin the year in Triple-A after being one of Arizona’s best bullpen arms last year. Instead of the mustache man, the D-backs will turn to Jordan Norberto as the
only left-hander on their pitching staff.  Norberto throws hard, but he has pitched only 23.2 innings above A-ball in his life and he allowed 29 hits, 18 walks, and 23 runs (21 earned) in that time.  Maybe the Diamondbacks can just intentionally walk any dangerous left-handed batter whom they face in the late innings.

Closer Chad Qualls had a terrific season last year before suffering a gruesome injury to his knee.  Juan Gutierrez came on very strong at the end of last season, but doesn’t have the track record to be counted on as the second-best pitcher in your bullpen.  All in all, the Diamondbacks bullpen
figures to be about as good as it was last year, when it was overworked and inconsistent.

Final Word

The Diamondbacks are the most improved team in the NL West because of their offense and the possible return of Brandon Webb, but with only 70 wins last year, they didn’t improve enough to compete for a playoff spot.  They obviously are unable or unwilling to acquire the extra starting pitcher that would be required to make this a postseason team.  The plan may be to find one after they trade Chris Snyder, but the D-backs are going to need to include money with any Snyder deal at this point, so they don’t figure to net enough dough to get a pitcher of much consequence.

The good news for D-backs fans is that there are a lot of star players in place for the next few years here.  With Chase Field set to host the 2011 All-Star Game and deferred debt from a decade ago finally disappearing, the D-backs should soon have enough green to fill out a complete pitching staff. Furthermore, the D-backs took a terrific haul in last year’s draft, making it possible for this to be the Team of the Teens even if the 2010 season is nothing to write home about.

In order to make that determination, I’m going to go through the fantasy draft rankings for Diamondbacks players in the 2010 FoxSports.com
Fantasy Guide and give my input as to whether they should actually rank higher or lower in your draft.

(The number in parenthesis is where FoxSports.com ranks each player among the players who qualify for the position listed)

Catcher – Miguel Montero (11)

This ranking is pretty absurd.  FoxSports ranked Chris Snyder 11th last year coming off a season in which he hit .237.  Montero hit .294 last year and .326/.371/.540 over his final 78 games of the season.  This 26-year-old backstop should not be selected any lower than sixth among all catchers.  Remember, he hit 30 doubles in 425 at-bats last year.  If Montero turns a few of those into homers, he could be looking at 25 dingers and 90 RBI over a full season to go with a batting average around .300.

First Base – Mark Reynolds (7), Adam LaRoche (30), Conor Jackson (37)

This Fantasy Guide magazine was penned before Adam LaRoche signed with the D-backs, so it’s reasonable to assume the news that he would be playing half his games at Chase Field would have bumped him up to 25 or so.  He is just a .238 hitter with a .661 OPS in 42 career at-bats there, but he claims to like Chase’s sightlines and would figure to threaten the 30-homer and 100-RBI marks in a full season in the desert.  It’s hard to justify using a draft pick on LaRoche, however, since he always does his best work later in the season (.252/.326/.447 career before the All-Star break and .300/.363/.546 afterwards).  It may be preferable to let another owner draft him and wait for either an easy trade opportunity or even for the unwitting owner to drop LaRoche in frustration with an early season slump.

Conor Jackson appears fully recovered from the bout of Valley Fever that sidelined him for most of 2009, as he has looked good both in winter ball and in early spring action.  He still doesn’t provide enough power for a starting first baseman, however, and should be considered only for late-round outfield help and as an occasional first base plugin.

Second Base – Ryan Roberts (24), Kelly Johnson (30)

Clearly, these rankings were based on last year’s performance and little else.  Ryan Roberts was a career minor leaguer before last season and is now 29-years old.  Kelly Johnson was a top-notch fantasy performer at the age of 25.  Johnson has since declined in two straight seasons, but is still younger than Roberts, plus is the starter in Arizona.  Definitely draft Johnson before Roberts, and only consider drafting Roberts at all if you really need his multiple position eligibility of second base, third base, and outfield.

Shortstop – Stephen Drew (8)

Unless triples is a category in your league, Stephen Drew was a big disappointment last year.  Injuries were part of the problem, but it’s beginning to look as though 2008 was the outlier, not the rule for Drew.  Drew has much more value in daily leagues.  His career OPS against righties is .797, but it is just .696 versus southpaws.  At Chase Field, he has an .834 OPS, but it is just .710 on the road.  There aren’t a lot of five-category shortstops around, so if you can nab Drew in the middle rounds and get someone like Everth Cabrera in the final rounds to platoon, you’ll be alright.  Cabrera also has disparate splits (although he is significantly better on the road) and can provide steals while Drew supplies the average and pop.

Third Base – Mark Reynolds (2)

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Reynolds had a terrific season last year – particularly fantasy-wise, assuming you are not penalized by strikeouts.  Still, this ranking is too high.  One good season does not put Reynolds above the likes of Aramis Ramirez, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Michael Young, Chone Figgins, and Kevin Youkilis.  While Reynolds’ power is legit, there is no way he steals 24 bases again this year.  Even if his strikeouts do not directly hurt you fantasy-wise, they prevent him from ever hitting for a high batting average.  He belongs in a class with Ryan Zimmerman and Pablo Sandoval – guys coming off one elite season who need to prove that their numbers are repeatable – not the perennial fantasy stars listed above.

Outfield – Justin Upton (7), Chris Young (78)

I like these rankings a lot.  Upton is the real deal.  Still just 22, he is only going to get better.  .300-30-100 is probable if Upton stays healthy, and unlike Reynolds, Upton’s speed is legit.  One caveat is that Upton is unlikely to repeat his .360 batting average on balls in play from
last season.  He will therefore need to cut down on his strikeouts in order to hit .300 again.

Many people are predicting a rebound season for Chris Young.  I need to see him hit a decent curveball before I’m willing to take a flyer on him.  Young succeeded in 2007 partly because he saw a preponderance of fastballs while batting leadoff.  A.J. Hinch doesn’t appear to be as willing to take the OBP hit out of the leadoff position that Bob Melvin was just to make Chris Young a viable fantasy option.

Starting Pitching – Dan Haren (6), Brandon Webb (25), Edwin Jackson (41)

Dan Haren has exceeded my expectations since he joined the Diamondbacks two winters ago.  It seems that the benefit of not facing a designated hitter has outweighed the detriment of pitching in Chase Field in his case.  While Haren’s inhuman strikeout-to walk ratio (5.87 last year) certainly makes him
worthy of being one of the first ten pitchers drafted, make sure you trade him to an unsuspecting owner before your league’s trade deadline.  His career ERA before the All-Star break is 3.08 while afterwards it is a robust 4.21.

Edwin Jackson is similar to Haren in that he is transitioning from a pitcher’s park in a DH-league to Chase Field and had some disparate pre-post splits in 2009 (2.52/5.07).  But while Haren had three solid seasons with the A’s prior to joining the D-backs, Jackson only has a few months of success on his
resume.  Moreover, Jackson’s velocity and sudden recent workload makes him a substantial injury risk.  FoxSports has him rated correctly.

I personally like to draft high-upside starting pitchers in the draft, as it is generally easy to pick up solid innings-eater types off the waiver wire midseason, even in 12 and 14 team leagues.  So while ranking Webb at 25 accounts for the substantial risk involved in taking someone who hasn’t pitched in a year and who will begin the season on the disabled list, the chance that he will give you 150-180 innings of Cy Young goodness is one worth taking among the first 20 pitchers.  Draft him, stick him on your DL, then add a high-upside youngster from the undrafted free agent pool.  When Webb is ready towards the end of April, you can use him to replace whatever pitcher of yours is getting hit the hardest.

Relievers – Chad Qualls (10)

While I like to take risks with starting pitchers, I err on the conservative side for relief pitching.  Outside of Mariano Rivera, closers tend to be an unpredictable lot, and even Rivera’s save totals fluctuate greatly.  Moreover, with only 30 pitchers accumulating a significant amount of saves at any given time in Major League Baseball, it is very difficult to find replacement closers mid-season if the ones you drafted are injured or ineffective.  So while Chad Qualls had a fantastic 2009 season that included the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any closer (6.43), I would not draft him among the first half of teams’ closers due to the gruesome knee injury he suffered at the end of last season and the fact that Arizona has two relievers with closing experience backing him up in Bob Howry and Juan Gutierrez.

Each year, BaseballEvolution.com doles out Mark Redman Awards for both leagues, recognizing pitchers who began the season surprisingly well but crashed back to earth in the second half of the season.  New Arizona Diamondback Edwin Jackson won the 2009 AL Award.  Does that have any predicative value for Jackson’s 2010 season and beyond?

Baseball Evolution first created the Mark Redman Award in 2006, so we only have follow-up data for a half dozen pitchers.  Let’s see what we can glean from it:

Jose Contreras 2006: 13-9, 4.27 in 196 IP

Jose Contreras 2007: 10-17, 5.57 in 189 IP

Jose Contreras 2008: 7-6, 4.54 in 121 IP

Jose Contreras 2009: 6-13, 4.92 in 131.2 IP

The inaugural AL winner certainly continued to tumble after a poor end to the 2006 season.  In fairness, Contreras was listed as a 34-year old in 2006 and may in fact have been much older.   His decline may not be relevant to Jackson, who won his award during a season in which he was primarily 25 years old.

Jeremy Bonderman 2007: 11-9, 5.01 in 174.1 IP

Jeremy Bonderman 2008: 3-4, 4.29 in 71.1 IP

Jeremy Bonderman 2009: 0-1, 8.71 in 10.1 IP

Here is a far better comparison, since Bonderman was 24 when he won his award and is a fellow Tiger to boot.  The record and ERA here are misleading, as the former 1st-round pick struck out 145 batters while walking 48 in 2007 before fanning just 44 and walking 36 in fewer than half as many innings the following year.  Bonderman’s record and ERA weren’t far worse in 2008 only because of a fluke of small sample size.

And with Bonderman, the lack of a meaningful sample size is the real story.  He certainly lost effectiveness after his Redman win, but he more starkly lost his health.  After averaging 30 starts per season in his first five big league seasons, Bonderman has made only 13 over the past two years.

Garrett Olson 2008: 9-10, 6.65 in 132.2 IP

Garrett Olson  2009: 3-5, 5.60 in 80.1 IP

Olson, too, lost playing time in the season following his Redman Award, but in his case, it was not due to injury.  The Seattle Mariners were in contention last season, and could not afford to put up with bad Olson outings the way that perennial cellar-dwellers like the Baltimore Orioles could in 2008.  So even though Olson’s 2009 numbers were a substantial improvement over what he managed in 2008, the M’s put him in Triple-A for two stints totaling nearly two months and shuttled him between the rotation and the bullpen while he was in the majors  And actually, in his 11 starts, Olson went 3-5 with a 6.49 ERA, which isn’t an improvement on his 2008 numbers.

Like Bonderman, Olson was 24 in his Redman season, so his failure to recapture the success he had in the first half of 2008 is applicable to Edwin Jackson.

Derrick Turnbow 2006: 4-9, 6.87 in 56.1 IP

Derrick Turnbow 2007: 4-5, 4.63 in 68 IP

Derrick Turnbow 2008: 0-1 15.63 in 6.1 IP

Relievers are notoriously fickle.  That said, Derrick Turnbow had one of the most drastic turnarounds of any reliever in history.  Turnbow was one of the most effective closers in baseball in 2005.  Four years later at the age of 31, he was out of baseball.  Clearly, the turning point was the summer of 2006, although Turnbow was at least serviceable in 2007.  His situation is certainly different from Edwin Jackson’s as a starter, but there’s no denying that his disastrous second half in 2006 was a bad omen of things to come.

John Maine 2007: 15-10, 3.91 in 191 IP

John Maine 2008: 10-8, 4.18 in 140 IP

John Maine 2009: 7-6, 4.43 in 81.1 IP

Not much to analyze here.  Maine has seen his effectiveness and durability steadily decline in two years since winning a very tight Redman Award over Jason Marquis.  It is worth noting that Marquis has been pretty solid over the past two seasons (although he still falters in the second half).  Had he gotten the Redman nod over Maine, this analysis would look a bit better for Jackson and the D-backs.

Jonathan Sanchez 2008: 9-12, 5.01 ERA in 158 IP

Jonathan Sanchez 2009: 8-12, 4.24 ERA in 163.1 IP

Finally, we found a Redman winner who was legitimately better the following season.  Sanchez and Jackson won their awards at the exact same age.  The difference was in their component ERAs.  Sanchez had a Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 3.90 in 2008, over a full run lower than his actual ERA of 5.01.  Jackson had a FIP of 4.34 last season, nearly three-quarters of a run higher than his actual 3.62 ERA.  Redman issues aside, we would expect Sanchez to improve on his 2008 ERA and Jackson to decline from his 2009 ERA based on the ratios of strikeouts, walks, and homers for each pitcher.  Sanchez was unlucky in 2008 while Jackson was fortunate in 2009.

Conclusions

Looking solely at the season following a Redman Award, we total the following:

The Redman Year: 61-59, 4.97 in 908.2 IP

Year After Redman: 38-51, 4.78 in 712 IP

This isn’t at all what I expected.  I figured that with the first part of a Redman season being so uncharacteristically dominant, the following season would necessarily be a letdown.  It turns out that the second half of Redman seasons tend to be uncharacteristically bad as well, so the following season tends to feature some evening out.  The win-loss record of Redman winners tends to get a little worse while their earned run averages improve a bit.  Neither trend is very statistically significant.

But there is something to be gleaned here.  Check out those innings pitched totals.  After averaging 151 innings per season during their Redman years, these six pitchers averaged just 119 the following season.  Remove the one reliever from the group and we see a decline from 170 to 129.  When we move one more year past the Redman season, things get even worse.  A disastrous second half could be indicative of an injury for starting pitchers – injuries that recur in subsequent seasons and become career-threatening in some instances.

This is particularly bad news for Edwin Jackson, who already had so many injury red flags surrounding him that you might think a swarm of NFL coaches were watching instant replays near him.  Jackson surpassed his 2008 innings pitched total by just over 30 last season, which is the point at which we can expect injury trouble in the subsequent season due to the sharp increase in workload.  Furthermore, Jackson had 18 starts in which he threw over 100 pitches, three in which he surpassed 120, and one dubious start in which he was asked to throw 132 pitches.  Since Jackson regularly throws his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s, these high pitch counts take their toll on him more so than they would for a soft-tosser.

The ironic part of all this is that the D-backs purportedly traded the younger, cheaper, and more-talented Max Scherzer for Jackson because they believed that Scherzer was an injury waiting to happen.  On the contrary, Jackson is unlikely to reach 150 innings in 2010 and I will go on record as saying that he will not reach 200.  Things could get even worse beyond 2010, but focusing just on this upcoming season, Edwin Jackson is extremely unlikely to spend the entire season healthy and effective.

With the lack of depth in their starting rotation, the Diamondbacks can ill-afford to have that happen.

The Diamondbacks entered the offseason with holes to fill in both the starting rotation and in their bullpen.  After their deal with the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, they will be weaker in both areas despite taking on a significant amount of new salary.

Neither Ian Kennedy nor Daniel Schlereth is arbitration-eligible, so their exchange does not affect the Diamondbacks financially.  Edwin Jackson, on the other hand, made $2.2 million during a career year in 2009 and figures to make at least $5 million next season.  Max Scherzer, meanwhile, is going to make about $2 million in 2010 before becoming arbitration-eligible next year.  Aaron Heilman, acquired last week from the Chicago Cubs, figures to make just over $2 million himself after raking in $1.625 last season.

Essentially, the D-backs have swapped Heilman for Schlereth in the bullpen, Jackson for Scherzer as their #3 starter, and added Kennedy as their #4 starter at a net cost of around $5 million.  So the questions are whether the two exchanges favor the D-backs and whether there was a free agent pitcher of Kennedy’s caliber to be had for a $5 million price tag.

The second question is somewhat difficult to answer this early in the winter, as only the top pitchers available have signed thus far.  The only free agent starting pitchers who have signed anywhere near the $5 million price tag are Brad Penny and Rich Harden, each of whom accepted $7.5 million, one-year deals.  Obviously, those two pitchers are far superior to Ian Kennedy. If this year’s middle-tier starting pitcher market is similar to last winter’s, the D-backs could have done better than Kennedy.

Jon Garland signed with the Diamondbacks for $7.25 million last January and won 11 games, tossed over 200 innings, plus finished with an ERA just over 4.00.  Braden Looper signed with the Brewers for $5.5 million.  He went 14-7 tossed just under 200 innings, but led the league with 39 home runs allowed and finished with a 5.27 ERA.  Andy Pettitte signed for the same money as Looper did and matched him in both wins and innings pitched, but had a far more impressive 4.16 ERA.  Randy Wolf improved upon his base salary of $5 million by hitting a lot of incentives on the road towards going 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA over 214.1 innings.

There’s some variation here, but it seems likely that the D-backs would have at least been able to get a decent 200-inning workhorse in the $5 million range.  What can we expect from Ian Kennedy in 2010?  It’s difficult to say, but he certainly won’t pitch 200 innings.   Kennedy has averaged just over 100 innings in his three full professional seasons due in part to being injured with an arm aneurysm for most of last season.  When Kennedy has pitched in the minors, he’s been dominant, at 19-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 273 strikeouts in 248.2 innings.  That success has not translated to the majors, where he is 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 59.2 innings.  The biggest difference is that Kennedy has walked twice as many batters per nine innings in the majors as he did in the minors – 5.6 to 2.8.

The problem likely isn’t command, but rather a lack of confidence that his stuff can get major league hitters out in the strike zone. He has a five-pitch arsenal, but his fastball only averages about 90 MPH.  His changeup was his most effective pitch in the minors, but it doesn’t appear to be as deceptive to major league hitters.  One reason for future optimism is that Kennedy has refined his two-seam fastball, a pitch which he has only recently added to his repertoire and one that can only be further aided by pitching in a rotation alongside Brandon Webb.

“Before, I couldn’t command my two-seamer; it was always talking off the plate and no one would swing at it,” Kennedy recently told the New York Times. “Right now, it’s something to get guys to swing at and put the ball in play and save pitches.”

Kennedy turns 25 this month and figures to improve with more innings under his belt, but isn’t likely to contribute much at the big league level this season.  On the other hand, Edwin Jackson is a year older than Max Scherzer is and three years closer to free agency than is Scherzer.  His acquisition is a play for the short-term, but in fact he does not even improve the D-backs for this year.

Jackson entered the 2009 season with a 5.15 ERA and then posted a 3.62 mark for Detroit.   Although this was seemingly a breakout year for a 25-year old pitcher, it wasn’t quite as impressive as it first seems.  His ERA in the second half of the season was 5.07, so he has basically only had four good months in a big league career that has spanned 670 total innings.   While he did improve his walk and strikeout rates in 2009, most of his success came courtesy of the Detroit Tigers’ top-notch defense.  His fielding independent ERA was 4.24 as compared to Scherzer’s mark of 3.90, with Scherzer’s edge coming on the strength of of 9.2 whiffs per nine innings as opposed to Jackson’s 6.8 K/9.  Jackson also allowed 27 home runs in a spacious ballpark that favors pitchers, and is moving to the home run haven known as Chase Field.

The one possible argument for Jackson is that he may be less of an injury risk, although that argument does not hold much water.  Jackson throws slightly harder than Scherzer does, plus increased his workload in 2009 by over 30 innings from 2008.  Even more alarmingly, Jackson had a dozen starts of 110 or more pitches and three of over 120, with a high of 132.   Although Scherzer also saw an increased workload in 2009, the D-backs were relatively careful with him.  He only had three starts of over 110 pitches and never hit 120.

Similarly, the biggest question surrounding Daniel Schlereth was his health. Schlereth throws nearly as hard as Scherzer does, but lacks Scherzer’s size.  Like Kennedy, Schlereth has dominated the minor leagues (1.13 ERA in 39.2 innings) but struggled so far in the majors (5.89 in 18.1).  His command was even a concern in the minors, however, as he walked 5.2 batters per nine innings there.  As the 26th overall pick of 2008, Schlereth was rushed to the majors even more so than Kennedy.  He would have joined Clay Zavada as the D-backs’ left-handed relievers this year and might have been groomed as the closer of the future.

He is replaced by the right-handed Heilman, whom manager A.J. Hinch believes to be capable of getting left-handed hitters out.

“One thing that’s really good about him, he’s very effective against lefties with that changeup, and that’s very good to have,” Hinch said during his winter meeting press conference.  “Being able to put a guy in a full-inning reliever or four outs, which I like to do, and him being able to get left-handed hitters out is key.”

In fact, Heilman’s career batting average against is four points lower against left-handed hitters than it is against righties.  His OPS against, however, is 66 points higher against lefties than it is against right-handers.  Heilman can certainly hold his own against left-handed hitters, but with Schlereth and Scott Maine both gone, there will be a lot of unfavorable late-inning matchups for the Diamondbacks unless the team acquires another
southpaw.

Unfortunately, it is much more difficult to find a quality left-handed bullpen arm than it is to find a right-hander, and there is no doubt that Schlereth has more upside than the 31-year old Heilman does.  Worse yet, it sounds as though the Diamondbacks may be content not to add another left-hander to their bullpen.  Similarly, the acquisition of Kennedy and increased expenditure on Heilman and Jackson may lull the organization into believing that it does not need to add another starting pitcher for depth.  Surely, losing Webb for the 2009 season taught the organization a lesson about the need for depth in the rotation, right?

Even if the team does acquire another starter and another southpaw for the bullpen, this deal still makes the team worse for both 2010 and beyond.  The real kicker is that the team has been made worse despite adding about $5 million to its 2010 payroll.  For a team with limited financial resources, this could be a devastating blow.

Catcher:

Damian Miller, 1998-2002
.269/.336/.437 in 1632 PA

Best Year: 2000 (10-44-.275)

Miller never had a standout year offensively, but he was consistently a productive bat out of the catcher position for four years.  His biggest contributions came as a defender, as he generally ranked in the upper echelon of caught stealing percentage.  Some people would no doubt want to consider 2001 as Miller’s best year because he hit a career high 13 homers while shouldering the biggest workload in his career in a season that would culminate in a World
Championship.  Not only were all of Miller’s offensive rate stats superior in 2000, but his defense was markedly better.  He committed six errors, lost three passed balls, and allowed 17 wild pitches in 2000 as compared to seven errors, 11 passed balls, and 27 wild pitches the following season.
In 2000, he tossed out 40% of baserunners, a figure that would drop to 36% in 2001.  Furthermore, Miller wasn’t terribly impressive during the 2001 postseason.

Chris Snyder actually spent more time with the D-backs in terms of seasons, games caught, and plate appearances, but Snyder’s batting average is 36 points lower and his slugging average is 39 points lower.  He is almost certainly on his way out of the organization to make way for Miguel Montero, who will almost certainly pass Miller as the best backstop in franchise history in a couple of seasons.

First Base:

Conor Jackson, 2005-2009
.281/.361/.431 in 1854 PA

Best Year: 2008 (12-65-.300)

This was a very difficult choice. Tony Clark had his incredible 2005 season in which he slugged .636, plus came up with lots of big hits during the magical 2007 season.  Greg Colbrunn and Mark Grace formed a formidable righty/lefty, offense/defense platoon during the Bob Brenly years.  Erubiel Durazo had teamed up with Colbrunn prior to Gracie’s arrival and actually has the best OPS of any Diamondbacks first baseman at .918.

In the end, I had to go with CoJack.  He played at a very consistent level for three seasons as the D-backs’ primary first baseman rather than as a platoon guy.  He’s driven in 74 more runs than the runner up Diamondbacks first baseman (Travis Lee).  Although he’s not a strong defensive first baseman, he’s not such a liability as to negate his combination of productivity,
consistency, and longevity at the dish.

Second Base:

Jay Bell, 1998-2002
.263/.355/.458 in 2547 PA

Best Year: 1999 (38-112-.289)

It’s easy to forget just how good Jay Bell was in Diamondbacks purple.  He was the first free agent to ever sign with the franchise, was one of their best hitters in the inaugural 1998 season as a shortstop, had one of the best seasons ever by a second baseman the following year, and scored the winning run in the 2001 World Series.  He was a heady baseball player, a solid
defender, and a class act.  What’s not to like?

Unfortunately, Bell is remembered more for the ill-advised $34 million contract that he was given than the fact that he lived up to that contract better than anyone could have realistically expected.  He is remembered more for his failed sacrifice bunt in Game Seven than the fact that he scored the winning run.  He was overshadowed by Luis Gonzalez, Randy Johnson, and
Curt Schilling.  You could make a decent argument that Orlando Hudson deserves this title because he played better defense and because Bell spent time at other positions, but Bell’s counting stats with the D-backs simply dwarf Hudson’s.

Third Base:

Matt Williams, 1998-2003
.278/.327/.421 in 2462 PA

Best Year: 1999 (35-142-.303)

Like Bell, Williams is somewhat maligned for not living up to a large contract apart from a monster 1999 season.  Williams carries the additional stigma of being named in the Mitchell Report, although Bell’s career path certainly raises some eyebrows in that regard as well.

Chad Tracy’s career numbers are very similar to Williams’ as a Diamondback, but only about half of Tracy’s games have come at the hot corner, and his defense there pales in comparison.  Mark Reynolds edges out Williams in terms of rate stats, but Williams wins in every counting stat, including strikeouts and errors.  A couple more seasons like 2009 and Reynolds will
snatch the honor from Williams, but for now, Carson Crusher is the best Diamondbacks third baseman of all time.

Shortstop:

Stephen Drew, 2006-2009
.270/.326/.445 in 2103 PA

Best Year: 2008 (21-67-.291)

It’s Tony Womack versus Stephen Drew here.  Do you prefer Womack’s huge edge in stolen bases or Drew’s gargantuan advantage in slugging?  Interestingly, neither is an ideal leadoff hitter – Womack because he could get on base more than a third of the time and Drew because he isn’t much of a base stealer.  As they are both imperfect as table-setters, I had to go with the
player who can also drive in runs when needed.

The interesting thing about Drew is that he has hit very well while leading off or batting low in the order, but poorly in the #2-#5 lineup slots.  It will be interesting to see what role he eventually settles in and whether he can improve upon his fantastic 2008 season.  Even if you aren’t yet convinced that he is the D-backs’ best all-time shortstop, you likely will be by the end of
2010.

Left Field:

Luis Gonzalez, 1999-2006
.298/.391/.529 in 5246 PA

Best Year: 2001 (57-142-.325)

This is, of course, the easiest call of all.  Gonzo is not only the best offensive force in Diamondbacks history, but arguably the only left fielder.  Eric Byrnes is the only other Diamondback to play over 200 games there, and he spent a considerable amount of time in center as well.  The only year in which Byrnes started more than 50 games in left field was in 2007, when he stated 113 contests.  Gonzo started over 100 games in left for eight straight seasons with the D-backs, and in seven of those, he started over 140.

Now a member of the front office, Gonzalez has been a valued member of the Arizona community for over a decade.  Barring a Brandon Webb contract extension, Gonzalez and Randy Johnson will still be considered the faces of the franchise for years to come.

Center Field:

Steve Finley, 1999-2004

.278/.351/.500 in 3449 PA

Best Year: 2000 (35-96-.280)

This is another runaway.  Chris Young is the only other true centerfielder in Diamondbacks history.  The rest of the notable centerfielders were just athletic corner outfielders who were filling in: Byrnes, Danny Bautista, Shawn Green, Quentin McCracken, David Dellucci. Even in his late-30s, Finley was a legitimate defensive centerfielder.  He was also a late-bloomer offensively who continued to hit during his entire Diamondbacks tenure.

Ironically, Finley had his worst offensive season during the 2001 World Series run.  The bat came alive in the playoffs though, as Finley would hit .322 and drive in nine runs that postseason.  His claims to fame include being one of six members of the 300/300 club
and playing in 162 games while hitting 36 homers as a 39-year old centerfielder in 2004.

Right Field:

Justin Upton, 2007-2009
.272/.350/.485 in 1157 PA

Best Year: 2009 (26-86-.300)

I have to admit, I was surprised when I came up with Upton’s name here after basically just two seasons, but the numbers back this up.  Bautista has played more games in right field than any other Diamondback, but he was rarely more than a role player.  Reggie Sanders was terrific in 2001, but his season was no better than Upton’s was this year, and it was Reggie’s only season
as a Diamondback.  The closest competitor of Upton’s is Shawn Green. While Green has six more hits and two more doubles as a Diamondback, Upton has nine more triples, 10 more homers, seven more runs scored, 15 more RBI, 21 more walks, and nine more stolen bases.

Upton turned 22 in August, and appears to be the best bet to usurp Luis Gonzalez as the best position player in franchise history.  The question isn’t even whether Upton will put up the numbers; it’s whether the Diamondbacks will have the resources to keep him once he is eligible for free agency.

Right-handed Starting Pitcher:

Brandon Webb, 2003-2009
87-62, 3.27 ERA in 1319.2 IP

Best Year: 2007 (18-10, 3.01)

Left-handed Starting Pitcher:

Randy Johnson, 1999-2004, 2007-2008
118-62, 2.83 ERA in 1630.1 IP

Best Year: 2002 (24-5, 2.32)

No, I’m not going to cop out and leave it at this.  Randy Johnson is also the best starting pitcher overall, and there’s nothing Webb can even do about it this year except sign long-term.  Both pitchers have the same amount of losses while the Big Unit has 31 more victories, 1,012 more strikeouts, and an ERA 44 points lower.  Then there are the four consecutive Cy Young Awards (and he deserved a fifth in 2004), the utter dominance in the 2001 postseason (culminating in the co-MVP Award for the World Series), and the 2002 Triple Crown (one of the 50 best pitching seasons of all time).  I don’t want to sound as though I don’t respect Webb… it’s just tough to be compared to Randy Johnson, which is why I’ve carved out a niche for
Webb as best right-handed starter.

Curt Schilling deserves an honorable mention, though.  He was only with the club for three-and-a-half seasons, but managed a better winning percentage than Randy Johnson and a lower ERA than Brandon Webb.  His 875 strikeouts with the D-backs ranks third all-time; Miguel Batista is fourth with 454.

Meanwhile, Schilling is 10th on the walks list with 117.  He was even better in the postseason than Johnson was.  Dan Haren also merits a shout out, as he figures to pitch with the club for at least four more seasons and might eventually challenge Webb for the title of best right-hander.

Relief Pitcher:

Jose Valverde, 2003-2007
98 Saves, 3.29 ERA in 260 IP

Best Year: 2007 (47/54 SV, 2.66)

Matt Mantei and Byung-Hyun Kim are the only other Diamondbacks with at least 50 saves.  It surprised me to learn that Mantei has an ERA just over 4.00 with the D-backs while Kim’s rests at 3.43 and would be considerably lower had he not made 10 ill-advised starts with the Diamondbacks.  Kim is of course best known for allowing just one hit and no runs in his first 6.1 postseason innings, then eight hits, eight runs, three homers, and five walks over his next
5.0 playoff innings, so it’s east to forget just how dominant he was prior to facing the Yankees in the World Series.

Mantei, like Valverde, was frightfully inconsistent; every other year was a bad one, and he sat out most of the 2001 and 2002 playoff seasons with injury.  Valverde may have been inconsistent, but without him, the Diamondbacks do not make the playoffs in 2007.  The closer’s role has always been a revolving door in Arizona, so it is hard to predict who will eventually surpass Valverde.
Chad Qualls has a lower ERA at the moment, but becomes a free agent after this year.  All it would take is three full seasons as the Diamondbacks closer for someone to pass Valverde in saves, but it still may not happen in the next decade.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks traded six of their best prospects for Dan Haren in December of 2007, I was vehemently opposed to the deal from the Diamondbacks’ perspective.  Not only was I extremely high on the prospects involved – Outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham, Southpaws Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, and Dana Eveland, and first baseman Chris Carter – but I felt that Dan Haren was a flash-in-the-pan starting pitcher who was the product of a spacious ballpark and a stellar defense behind him.

Approximately a year-and-a-half later, it’s obviously too early to grade the prospect package (although the 21-year old Anderson has a 1.89 ERA, .185 BAA, and .476 OPSA in his last half-dozen starts). But it’s becoming pretty clear that I was wrong about Haren for the most part.

In Haren’s July 23rd start, he allowed more than three runs for just the second time in his 20 times on the bump, shooting his ERA back over 2.00.

Haren’s 2.14 ERA and 210 ERA+ are the best marks that Major League Baseball has seen since Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA and 226 ERA+ in 2005.  Prior to that, Pedro Martinez managed a 210 ERA+ in 2003 and a 1.74 ERA way back in 2000.  Haren’s 0.84 WHIP is the lowest the majors has seen since Pedro got his as low as 0.74 in that unbelievable 2000 season.

So as of right now, Dan Haren is arguably having one of the top three pitching seasons of the decade.  Certainly, it is among the top five.  The fact that he is “only” 10-5 for the 42-56 Arizona Diamondbacks due to a lack of run support is well-documented.  But the fact that his hits totals are so low despite playing in a hitter’s park with a mediocre defense behind him is not discussed nearly often enough.

Surprisingly, Haren’s one hamartia – the home run – does not appear to be a function of Chase Field, as 7 of his 13 longballs were allowed on the road.  In fact, 4 of them came in his homecoming against Oakland in May and might be attributed to his emotional state in that start. The home runs alone account for a whopping one-third of Haren’s total 36 runs allowed (34 earned), and represent part of the reason I threw around the phrase “for the most part” when bashing my prior evaluation of the ace hurler.

The other reason is Haren’s history of second-half slides.  As good as Haren was in his Diamondbacks debut last year, he wound up with a 4.12 ERA and .294 BAA after the All-Star Break.  For his career, Danny H now has an ERA over one full run higher in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. His mediocre start against the Pirates could be the beginning of his annual trend rather than a mere bump in the road.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

So even though Haren looks as though he could toss his name in the same Hat of Dominance as Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez right now, it is more likely that he returns to earth a little bit as the summer winds down. I wouldn’t even necessarily call him the favorite in the NL Cy Young race with the likes of reigning winner Tim Lincecum, his suddenly-fortunate teammate Matt Cain, perennial favorite Johan Santana, unhittable-when-healthy Chris Carpenter, his workhorse teammate Adam Wainwright, homeboy Wandy Rodriguez, the young-and-alliterative Jair Jurrjens and Josh Johnson, and the Welchian Jason Marquis all enjoying fine seasons as well in the senior circuit.

But even if Haren isn’t on his way to a historically great season; or even a Cy Young Award; even if he is merely solid every second half from now though 2013, when his contract extension with the D-backs runs out; and even if Brett Anderson and Carlos Gonzalez win an ERA and home run title in 2011, it’s clear that this trade was not the complete disaster that I portended it to be.  Dan Haren has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past season-and-a-half, and the Arizona Diamondbacks would be battling the Washington Nationals for the title of the Worst Team in Baseball if they did not have Haren going every fifth day.

If Brandon Webb can return to his pre-injury form next year, the Diamondbacks could surprise a lot of people in 2010.

Predicted Dan Haren Finish: 16-9, 2.64 ERA

Melvin was a good guy and a great interview. What he did with the 2007 Diamondbacks was incredible, leading that team to the best record in the National League despite fielding a team that scored 20 fewer runs than it allowed. Unfortunately, that success created unrealistic expectations for 2008 and 2009, and now he’s seeing the fallout of that.

Things began to sour for Melvin after his club put up a 20-8 April record last year. Since then, the D-backs have gone 74-89, although much of this year’s struggles can be attributed to injuries to the team’s best pitcher (Brandon Webb) and position player (Stephen Drew).

The club also dismissed Rick Schu as hitting coach.  The Diamondbacks were dead last in baseball in team batting average (.222) and on-base percentage (.296) at the time of the firings, despite the fact that the D-backs play in one of baseball’s best hitters parks.  Their road stats (.185/.243/.299) are even more laughable.  The offense can’t go anywhere but up, so Schu’s replacement is going to look good no matter what.

Bryan Price also resigned as pitching coach after he learned of Melvin’s dismissal.  The Diamondbacks have consistently put together one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball under Price’s supervision despite the unfavorable pitching conditions at Chase Field.  His departure could offset any improvement garnered from shaking things up at the top.

Hinch, Melvin’s replacement, has no managerial experience at any level, making him a baffling choice to replace Melvin.  Organizational stalwarts such as Chip Hale and Brett Butler have resumes that more closely fit the profile of a big league manager.

As farm director, Hinch oversaw the development of many of the club’s current stars, such as Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, and Tony Pena. Perhaps the thinking is that Hinch understands the strengths and weaknesses of these players better than anyone, or perhaps the hope is that Hinch won’t be afraid to replace struggling players with current prospects who are playing well, such as Gerardo Parra, Cyle Hankerd, Hector Ambriz, and Bryan Augenstein.  Just two days ago, Josh Whitesell, who had seven major league at-bats, was named the club’s starting first baseman going forward.

Hinch enters a favorable situation, as the Diamondbacks will soon benefit from the return of Webb and Drew from the disabled list.  It’s hard to imagine the club playing worse than their initial 12-17 record with the addition of those two stars.  The club missed the playoffs after their 20-8 start to last season, so there’s no reason they can’t make the playoffs after their lackluster start to 2009.  Whether replacing the big league coaching staff with inexperience will make that happen remains to be seen.

Read more of Keith’ Diamondbacks analysis at FutureBacks.com.