Photo taken from Google Images

Listening to the most recent comments Sandy Alderson made to the New York Post, it has become more likely that he has little to no interest in adding any more players before spring training. Very few fans expected this team to do much this offseason, but it is impossible for a team who needed so much to improve to do so little. We can talk all day about the financial constraints, but it is pretty obvious Alderson did all his work in one day. Remember, he has JP Riccardi and Paul Depodesta on his staff; apparently they are only needed for the draft.
As a Mets fan, it is most frustrating because any free agent, no matter how little the price, can be worked into the Mets roster and make the team a little deeper. And because of this lack of interest, the Mets will employ players on their team that don’t belong in the major leagues. In return, there will be players who will start the 2012 season without a team. The players union should be concerned about what the Mets are doing, even though they can’t prove the Mets are colluding against bringing in players.
So the Mets will go into opening day with what they have right now, exciting right? I wanted to compose a list of the top ten concerns going in to the 2012 season, but there a lot more than that. So, I had to keep it to the composition of the roster. That means concerns like David Wright and Jason Bay returning to form, Lucas Duda playing right field, Ruben Tejada playing every day at shortstop, Mike Pelfrey getting over his psychological issues and Ike Davis returning from his surgery all have to be left off this list. If I missed anything, I apologize and feel free to leave it in the comment section below. Without further due, here are the top ten roster concerns that the Mets refused to address. I will refer to this before opening day as well as at the all-star break and the end of the 2012 season and see how many of these issues blow up in the Mets face.
10. Frank Francisco as the closer: I understand the Mets could have done worse. The main reason I think the Mets upgraded their bullpen is the addition of Ramon Ramirez. Francisco has had some injury problems in his career. He had just 17 saves being the Toronto Blue Jays closer last season. That was not the first time Francisco was given a closer’s job and he wasn’t the primary closer. He was given the job in spring in 2010 with the Texas Rangers and lost the job to eventual rookie of the year Neftali Feliz. He spent some time as a middle reliever, so his 49-70 save completion ratio is not as bad as it looks. The bigger questions are whether he will last the entire season as the closer and if he can stay healthy for the entire season. Good chance Ramon Ramirez becomes the closer and if that happens, what kind of role does Francisco have for the balance of the next two years?
9. Jon Rauch as 8th inning set-up man: Rauch is coming off a terrible season with the Toronto Blue Jays. The optimist would point to his 2010 year with the Minnesota Twins when he was 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 21 saves in 53 games. But, 2011 should be a concern. He finished with a 4.85 ERA and gave up 11 homeruns in just 52 innings pitched. He’s not that old, just 33, but there were many others the Mets could have signed for $3.5 million or less. Perhaps a return to the National League will help Rauch and let’s understand that there are eight bigger concerns with this team than the back of the Mets bullpen.
8. Ronny Cedeno: I didn’t like the Cedeno signing from the beginning. Jack Wilson and Ryan Theriot had more versatility and if Alderson knew then that he wouldn’t bring in any additional depth, a roster spot is being tied up for a player who will only be able to do one thing, back up at shortstop. Cedeno will not be an option as a pinch hitter, perhaps can play 2nd base and that’s it and has little to no speed.
7. Scott Hairston- back up centerfielder: Last year, the Mets started the season with Hairston and Willie Harris backing up in centerfield and this year it will be just Hairston. They also ended up keeping Jason Pridie to play CF for the remainder of the season. With Pridie gone, the Mets have nobody else but Hairston to do the job. Yes, options like Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt DenDekker exist, but they are most likely to start the season in AAA unless either have a tremendous spring training.
6. Last bullpen spot: My biggest concern here is if the last spot goes to DJ Carrasco because he is making $1.2 million for 2012. Pedro Beato may need to spend a little more time in AAA. Some say there is a need for another lefty reliever. If they need to give the job to a lefthander, it will be either journeyman Daniel Herrera or minor league starting pitcher Robert Carson. There are no other legitimate contenders for the position unless you want to include Garrett Olson and Chuck James. A perfect spot for the team to bring a couple of proven arms who will take a minor league contract at this point, but Sandy says the team is “all set”.
5. Daniel Murphy 2B: Murphy is coming off a very good offensive season but still faces many critics. Some feel he may not be able to keep up with the .320 average and may not be the offensive player he was in 2011. Murphy’s biggest concern will be his switching to playing second base full time in 2012. His last two seasons have ended because of collisions at second base turning double plays and he is not known to be the most fleet footed. I understand he is working very hard to get himself ready, but this has to be a concern. If he struggles a little bit defensively, it could affect him at the plate. If it is determined that he can’t play second base, there may not be another place he can play at a regular basis on this team. If it works, his numbers should stand out among 2nd basemen in the NL.
4. Mike Nickeas- back-up catcher: I don’t have a problem if Nickeas won the job in spring training, but it seems like he is getting the job by default. He’s not a bad game caller, but has not spent a full season in the big leagues. Josh Thole needs to be challenged for playing time, and it does not look good if Nickeas is playing every day against left handed pitchers. Perhaps Rob Johnson can win the job, but Thole is the undisputed best catcher on the team and will get the majority of playing time. Still options are available, but the back-up catcher will be one of the team’s biggest weaknesses.
3. Mike Baxter/ Adam Loewen- back-up outfielder/ first off the bench: It will be hard to see either of these players starting in the outfield if either Jason Bay or Lucas Duda gets hurt. Baxter looked overmatched in AAA last season and despite a good 2011 for Loewen, he may need a little more time to gain confidence. Neither would be considered a 4th outfielder on any other team and neither gives a fan confidence as a pinch hitter. Another spot where you would like to see a veteran compete, but it looks like Baxter or Loewen will be in Queens come opening day.
2. Miguel Batista- sixth starter: More speculation states that Johan Santana may not be ready for opening day. Alderson still doesn’t think the Mets need a veteran to compete? Miguel Batista is a competitor. I like what he showed last season. But, at 41, I can’t see him making 30 starts for the Mets this season. We continue to hear that the Mets will not rush Matt Harver, Jeurys Familia and Zach Wheeler, but there is little on this roster that gives the team insurance if one or more starter goes down. And Santana is one of the biggest question marks among starting pitchers in baseball this season?
1. Andres Torres CF: Some of the prior concerns have helped solidify Torres as the number one concern. He hit .221 with 4 HR and 19 RBI in 112 games with the Giants last season. He is, without a doubt, the Mets starting centerfielder. There is also nobody who will be considered to play CF unless Torres gets hurt. When he needs a day off, Hairston is the Mets CF. Jon Heyman agrees with the executive that says Torres is a fifth OF. There is hope that he will be better in the clubhouse than Angel Pagan, but that will only be evident if he is a better hitter than 2011. Why, if the price is right, would the Mets not want to have more depth in their outfield?
I’m sure there are more concerns that will affect the 2012 New York Mets. As I have said before, this team is one major injury away from playing non-major leaguers for the fourth consecutive season. We all know the hope is in the future. But, let’s be honest, it will be a miracle for this team to be competitive. They will need everybody to be healthy, everybody to perform at the top of their game and some of the non-major league players on this projected team need to play above their heads. Good luck!

Phillies LF Raul Ibanez

With the lack of interest the New York Mets have in upgrading their team this offseason, the media and those who blog tend to overanalyze every move they make as well as every player the team is rumored to have interest in. If this was a prior- more active- offseason, most of the discussions Mets fans have had over the past couple of weeks would probably not exist. So now we have gotten complete breakdowns of Mark Tuiasosopo, Rob Johnson and Jeremy Hefner (which were all well done, by the way) simply because Mets fans have nothing better to talk about.
The latest headline grabbing news involves the Mets search for a fourth outfielder. It started with their effort to lowball Cody Ross, who signed with the Red Sox. Now reports say the team has interest in free agents Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Kosuke Fukudome and Rick Ankiel. Of course, the most logical fit is Ankiel, who can play all three OF positions and is known to be a good defensive outfielder. He is also the most affordable and may be had for as little as a minor league contract. Fukadome may be the next choice, but he is not known to be as good of a defender.

Image via Wikipedia

In addition to the probability that Damon and Ibanez are out of the Mets price range, it is fair to question how much of a fit each one would be (not a fit like Cody Ross, which was a reaction from the Mets after Ross was about to take a better contract). Damon is pretty much a designated hitter at this stage of his career. He played little outfield at all last season, playing in just 16 games in left field for the Tampa Bay Rays. If Damon was added, he could be asked to make a return to CF, which he hasn’t played in a couple of years. It’s a wonder if his return to the outfield would affect his offensive production which is still decent (.261, 16, 73 in 2011).
Ibanez is coming off a three year contract he signed with the Phillies and has driven in 80+ runs in each of the last seven years. It should get him a contract where he can play every day, especially since he is still a decent outfielder. Ibanez may be looking for regular playing time, something the Mets cannot guarantee. He would get to play more than expected, though.
The problem is spots are drying up and the chance of Ibanez ($12,166,666) or Damon ($5.25 million) getting anywhere near what they got last year is not looking good. Should the Mets make them an offer? Even if it is the patented Sandy Alderson contract offer of 1 year and $1 million (which he should trademark, by the way)? I think they should. I know its unlikely Damon or Ibanez would sign for that little, but perhaps some incentives can be thrown in. At the very least, the offers would be weighed against some of the other teams. I think it’s worth a try.

Image via Wikipedia

If it fails, which it probably will, they can focus on Fukudome and Ankiel, who will be more attainable. Though Fukudome is coming off a 4 year, $48 million deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs (making $14.5 million in 2011), he is expected to get less of a deal than Ibanez and Damon are expected to get. He is weighing options of maybe going back to Japan against the pay cut he is expected to take.
Damon and Ibanez going elsewhere and Fukudome going back to Japan will lead the Mets to Ankiel, where they were expecting to be all along. I personally think it’s at least worth a try to get the others. Particularly with Damon and Ibanez, they can be traded midseason if necessary. We all understand the unlikeliness that either would sign, so if either would, I say do it. This team can use some buzz, like I suggested with Manny Ramirez. There is nothing wrong with offering what the team is willing to pay. If they take it, great, if not, it’s no big deal.

Carter photo taken from Google Images

We should all say a prayer today for Gary Carter, who is fighting a terrible battle with cancerous tumors reemerging in his brain. First and foremost, hopes are that the kid can fight this terrible disease. After that point is made, there has been a lot of talk amongst Mets fans about whether or not his number 8 should be retired.
As a player who spent the majority of his career with the Montreal Expos, many feel he didn’t play for the Mets long enough. Others didn’t see him as the backbone of that team (which I couldn’t disagree with more) citing Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden and Keith Hernandez as whom the team revolved around. Others cite the fact that he only had three very good seasons for the Mets. To me, the last statement is the most convincing of all. The question is: Should a New York Mets player who had three very good seasons with the Mets have his number retired?
To me it’s not a matter of seniority in my book. Carter was hurt and near the end of his career in 1989 with the Mets. He had a down year in 1988, hitting .242, 11, 46 (BA, HR, RBI). Though his impact on the team cannot be overstated, the quest to have his number retired has to bring reasons that are above and beyond his time with the Mets. I do think he was the backbone of that team, but he shared it with Hernandez and the team could not have won in 1986 and the division in 1988 without Strawberry and Gooden, amongst others.
Here is the reason to retire his number. Once he was elected to the baseball Hall of Fame in 2003, the Mets decided they were not issuing his number 8 again. Prior to that, after leaving the Mets after the 1989 season, the number eight was issued to three players (Dave Gallagher, Carlos Baegra and Desi Reliford- all for short periods of time) and briefly to three coaches (Cookie Rojas, Steve Swisher and Matt Gallante). The fact that the number 8 is not being issued again because of Carter is a reason in my opinion to retire it. Numbers are retired as an honor to that player and by not issuing the number again; the Mets have essentially retired it. Why not go the extra mile and put it up at Citi Field? It’s not being issued again (I know I keep repeating this). If not, it should be re-issued just like 16, 17, and 18.
While we are at, the Mets have honored Willie Mays by only issuing his number 24 twice (once by accident and once to Rickey Henderson) since he retired after the 1973 season. I understand Mays was nothing more than a symbol of his name in his season and a half with the Mets. While his number being retired is not a symbol of what he did for the Mets, it should be retired because the number is not being issued because of Mays. But, if not, similarly to Carter, if the number is not being retired, it should be issued again. The Mets are one of the only teams that almost never retire their players’ numbers and have to be the only team to not issue a number again in honor of a player and not retire it.
I agree with Matt Cerrone of Mets Blog, who says Carter’s number should not be retired just because he is sick. That being said, I think either one of two things have to happen. Retire his number because the decision was made not to issue the number again in Carter’s honor. Or, issue the number again as he has been honored already, amongst others, in the Mets Hall of Fame.

Photo of Mike Napoli aken from Zimbio via Google Images

A lot is still to be determined with all the free agents still on the board. With players like Prince Fielder, Francisco Cordero, Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, and Raul Ibanez still available this late in the offseason, rosters could look quite different going into the 2012 season.
One team that is “all set” for the 2012 season, is the New York Mets. Nobody really knows what the future holds for the Mets and their ownership, though every story seems to be getting worse. Is there any chance the Mets can be on their feet by the end of this season?
The almost unanimous response to my question would probably be no. But, let’s play devil’s advocate for a minute. Let’s say, for some strange reason, the Mets ownership situation resolves itself. Maybe they are forced to sell. Perhaps the real estate market changes and the value of houses goes up again. What if the Mets are the cinderella team of 2012 and a lot more fans than expected go to the games? Come up with your own scenario if you want, but the bottom line is I am envisioning something happening which will put the Mets in business after this coming season and offseason (Sorry for taking the optimistic road, but this is what I am going with).
It’s hard to determine exactly who will become free agents after the 2012 season. Perhaps it is a bit early. If David Wright is traded, which I don’t see happening, he will be a free agent after this season due to a clause in his contract that voids his 2013 option if he is traded. Many players have team or player options, where time will tell whether they are exercised or the players become free agents. So, I have decided not to mention any player who has an option for 2013. Also, among the list of top free agents, five players are most likely to remain with their current teams or sign an extension before the season’s end. Those players are Mariano Rivera, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Ichiro and Miguel Montero.
Among the potential free agents I wouldn’t mess with if I were the Mets are Josh Hamilton, Carlos Lee, James Loney and Jonathan Sanchez. Hamilton is a great player but his injury history makes a long-term contract scary. One could wonder what Lee even has left coming off a down season. Plus the fact his body is wearing down makes him DH- American League material. Loney plays 1B and the Mets have a first baseman. And if you don’t think Jonathan Sanchez reminds you of a young Oliver Perez, you are not paying attention.
A secondary list of free agents I would consider would have to be at the right price. These are players that the Mets should consider if they can be had for below market value, because none of these players can change the landscape of the team by simply being added. I’m talking about C Russell Martin, OF Marlon Byrd and RP Juan Carlos Oviedo. I wouldn’t commit more than a year to Martin or two years to Oviedo and Byrd, assuming these were team friendly contracts. If not, I wouldn’t expect the Mets to pursue these players.
I have comprised a list of the top eight players the Mets should pursue as free agents, assuming they become available and assuming the team is back in business next offseason. Now, I’m not suggesting 7-10 year contracts. But to land some of these players, it will take more than the standard 1 year contract Sandy Alderson has been generally floating out there.

8. RHP Brandon League: Mariners. The hard throwing reliever finally broke through when given the chance to be the Mariners closer in 2011. He was an all star, who finished the season with 37 saves, replacing injured RHP David Aardsma. He has a good fastball and has always been known to miss bats. Scouts have always liked his stuff and he has shown signs of becoming as good as the scouts have said.

7. LHP Sean Marshall: Reds. It’s safe to say Marshall is a reliever now. He may get a chance to close some for the Reds this year, along with Aroldis Chapman. The last two seasons, he has pitched in 80 and 78 games, respectively and has also struck out more batters than innings pitched. Similarly to League, scouts have been high on Marshall and he is starting to prove them right.

6. RHP Zach Greinke: Brewers. The only problem with Greinke is the thought of signing him to a ridiculous contract that good pitchers are looking for. That may be the only reason to stay away. That and maybe the fact that there’s a question of whether he could handle New York at any cost. Greinke has ace stuff, and maybe his value goes down a little bit being second fiddle to Yovanni Gallardo another year, but it is very reasonable to see how a team may overpay for his services over the next several years. Talent and ability alone makes him worthy of being further up this list.

5. OF Andre Ethier: Dodgers. For the Mets to add a corner outfielder, something would have to happen with their current OFs, mainly Jason Bay. But, in a fantasy world, anything can happen. I could see Ethier being a fit for the Mets assuming he isn’t looking for $14- $16 million a season. A fair contract would be about three years and about $35 million total. For today’s standards, not a bad deal. His price will go up if he has a similar season to what he had in 2009 when he hit .272, 31, 106.

4. RHP Anabal Sanchez: Marlins. Sanchez could fall under the radar with the Marlins this season. Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson are anchoring the top of the rotation and Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano are behind them. Despite an 8-9 record last year in 32 starts, (15 no decisions) he had 202 strikeouts in 196 1/3 IP as well as 3 CG- 2 shutouts. He should make about $6-$7 million in arbitration this season. As an impending free agent, that puts him at about 3 years and less than $30 million guaranteed. That could be a steal.

3. OF BJ Upton: Rays. Upton is the type of player you like to have when you trying to put together a team. He has become a very good defensive outfielder, especially considering he has only played there a couple of years. He hits for power and has tremendous speed, which can put him anywhere in the lineup. Unfortunately his batting average and sometimes his attitude have not been up to par, He hit just .241 in 2009, .237 in 2010 and .243 last year while having the propensity for striking out a lot. He draws his share of walks keeping his OBP as respectable as could be based on his BA.

2. OF Michael Bourn: Braves. Bourn would be number one on this list if it wasn’t for one reason. After Carl Crawford got his contract and Jose Reyes got his, it is quite possible that Bourn will be looking for something in that neighborhood. As good of a player as he is, he is not in the same league as Crawford or even Reyes. Therefore, teams shouldn’t put him in the same category. But somebody may. He strikes out way too much for a leadoff batter and is more of a slap hitter than gap hitter, which better describes Crawford and Reyes. If a fair contract agreement could be reached, I see Bourn filling a hole as the Mets leadoff batter and center fielder for years to come. Another team swiping him away with a foolish contract offer is the only thing keeping me from ranking him number one.

1. C Mike Napoli: Rangers. The Rangers would be wise to lock him up when they have the chance. He is a superstar in the making, coming off a year where he hit .320, 30, 75 as a catcher. Not only that, but he handles himself well behind the plate and throws out base runners. He throughout 36% of base stealers last year and pitchers don’t seem to mind throwing to him.

How many of these free agents could the Mets possibly add? At this point, none. But hopefully things improve to a point where the Mets can put a competitive product on the field. If that’s the case, maybe we can talk about the additions of Bourn, Napoli, Sanchez and Marshall next offseason. But, maybe I’m just living in a fantasy world.

Fernando Martinez photo taken from Google Images

The New York Mets finally gave up on a prospect that never materialized. Yesterday, they waived Fernando Martinez (maybe somebody can tell me why he and Daniel Herrera were classified as waived when every other 40 man roster move says the player has been designated for assignment) who has an arthritic knee condition that is not going to get any better even though he is only 23. I understand how some fans are upset over this move, being any Mets news become the Mets fans’ equivalent to the Super Bowl or politics around the presidential election. The truth is, this is not a major move. As great as it would be to see F-Mart play in the majors this season, it was still unlikely unless he could prove that he could stay healthy. And he hasn’t done that in the past five years.
The last three years in particular have been difficult on Martinez, who has not been able to stay on the field. Other than a cup of coffee with the Mets, (5-22, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI) he played in just 63 games for the Buffalo Bisons last season. Prior to that, he played in 71 minor league games in 2010 and 75 in 2009. Overall in his parts of three major league seasons, he hit .183 (24-131) with 8 2B, 2 HR and 12 RBI.
His potential may have been a reason to keep him. But this guy has a knee condition similar to the one that ended Mo Vaughn‘s career. And outside of DJ Carrasco, I don’t see a better move the Mets could have made to get down to 40 players on their roster. F-Mart’s stock has fallen to a point where he is no more a prospect than Zach Lutz, Josh Satin or Armando Rodriguez. Maybe there’s a chance he clears waivers, and gets one last spring training chance to make the Mets. The Mets have the right to outright him to the minors if he clears waivers. But, he likely won’t clear. He has minor league options for 2012 and there are enough teams that think he is worth a 40 man roster spot, at least for this one season.
While I can see him being claimed by any team, including the Marlins, Phillies, and Yankees, I can see him most likely going to the San Diego Padres. Prior to 2005, the Padres offered him more money than the Mets but he wanted to play for the Mets because of Pedro Martinez. He signed with the Mets for $1.35 million. The General Manager that signed him was none other than Omar Minaya, who is now an Assistant General Manager for the Padres. Minaya will sell it to the Padres as a “What do we have to lose?” proposition.
It may be time to say good-bye to a player who was on the Mets in the first spring training I attended in 2008. Though he remains somewhat a threat with his bat, the chances of him remaining on a major league field long enough for the Mets to miss him is unlikely. But, then again, as a Mets fan, you learn to expect the worst.

Photo taken from Google Images

Has there ever been a more uninspiring offseason than the Mets this winter? Sure, you can point to the fact that the owners are broke. You can say it’s part of the rebuilding process. Both valid points, but fans are still faced with the daunting task of having to root for a team that will not be competitive. All Mets fans went through 2009, but that team was expected to be good. The last couple of seasons there was hope that if the key players could stay healthy, they should be able to compete. Of course, that didn’t happen, but at least there was something to root for.

Sandy Alderson says he is done adding players to the 40 man roster. And he says it as if he just finished building a championship team and he can’t fit any more good players on it. We all know he has his eye on the future, but he gives the impression he can care less about the present.

As for any team, there is the hope that things will break perfectly. In a perfect world, Johan Santana will return healthy and instantly becomes the old Johan Santana. David Wright, Jason Bay and Ike Davis are all healthy and hit 30 plus home runs. Daniel Murphy makes a seamless transition to second base and hits like he did last season. Ruben Tejada becomes Placido Polanco (prior to last season) and Lucas Duda gives the Mets four 30 homerun hitters. Frank Francisco has an all star season, finishing with 40 saves and Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee combine to win over 40 games.

A fan can dream, right? The difference is this season the team needs most of the before mentioned to do right just to avoid last place. The Marlins are improved and there is no reason to think the Braves and Phillies are going to take a step back because they have good teams. Even the Nationals added Gio Gonzalez and I still see them as a favorite to add Prince Fielder. And let’s be honest, to finish 3rd, 4th or 5th gets you no consolation prize and who cares about finishing third just because there were two worse teams than you.

I would like to see more depth on this team. There is very little in the Mets spending range, (minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, and if the player makes the team, they will get the league minimum) as most of the players that may play for that are either coming out of retirement, coming off of a major injury or can’t play anymore but want to stay in the game for the love of it. I compiled a list that I don’t even want to share. But, the problem remains that this team will not survive any injuries this season and injuries are part of the game.

Picture an injury to a Mets outfielder. Yes, it could be a blessing to see Kirk Nieuwenhuis debut in the majors. But, otherwise it will be Scott Hairston. Justin Turner and Ronny Cedeno will play every day if anything happens to the starting infield. If Wright and Davis are out again at the same time, Cedeno will play 2B, Turner would play 3B and Murphy would be at 1B. An injury to a starting pitcher (Santana being an obvious concern) will bring in Miguel Batista and outside of Pedro Beato, there is no relief ready to help this season in the minors.

Fans can keep talking about the future. And you will be the ones that will not go to games. You can root for your NY Giants, Rangers and Knicks and only have a small part of the season that you have to pay attention. But, what if you go to games regardless? What if you go to spring training every year? It sucks for us. Fans say it’s not as bad as the late 70s, but at least then, things improved in the 80s. There is no guarantee things will improve this time.

Image of Reyes taken from Google Images

Just before the trade deadline, Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson faced a dilemma; Trade his shortstop, best player, and the face of the franchise, for prospects that could help the team in the future, or hold on to him and receive draft pick compensation if Reyes were to go elsewhere in Free Agency. Alderson decided Reyes had more value to the team as a shortstop than a trade chip, and decided to allow Reyes to finish out his contract with the Mets.

When Reyes hit the market this offseason, his departure was something of a foregone conclusion. The Mets’ offered Reyes five years at $80 million, which was not enough to prevent Reyes from inking last night with the Miami Marlins on a six-year, $106M deal.

From the Mets’ perspective, Reyes signing with the Marlins is basically a worst-case scenario. On the field, they’ll have to see Reyes suit up for their division rival 18 times per year for the foreseeable future. That’s not even the worst of it, though. At 72-90, the Marlins finished in the bottom half of MLB teams, meaning they have a pick in the first half of the first round that is protected from being given up as compensation for Free Agent signings. Additionally, the team has already signed Heath Bell, who is a higher-ranked Free Agent according to Elias’ rankings, despite Reyes receiving a contract for more than double the guaranteed money. Because of the new CBA’s reordering of Type A and Type B Free Agents, the Marlins will not need to give up their second round pick to the Padres, although the Padres still receive a compensation pick directly before the Marlins’ second-rounder. So, since Bell was a higher-ranked free agent under the old system, he bumps the Reyes compensation pick back a round, while the Marlins won’t have to actually give up that pick because of the changes to arbitration rules for relievers under the new system. This is a coup for the Marlins, who have exploited the shift in CBA arbitration policies perfectly, while the Mets get the short end of the stick, as their compensation pick for Reyes will be no higher than the Marlins’ third rounder, and could very easily drop from there.

The buzz around baseball suggests that the Marlins aren’t done spending. If they go on to sign another Type A Free Agent ranked higher than Reyes, the Mets’ compensation pick could be bumped back even further. The Marlins are still considered players for Albert Pujols and to a lesser extent Prince Fielder and CJ Wilson, all of whom receive a better Elias score than Reyes and the signing of any of whom would result in the Mets’ compensation for their best shortstop in franchise history being a fourth round pick.

While trading Reyes might have been tough to swallow for the Mets’ fanbase, holding onto him has resulted in yet another obstacle to their returning to contention. The Mets should be looking to restock their farm system and add young talent through any means possible, in order to set themselves up to compete sometime around 2014 or 2015. By trading Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez at the deadline, they did so to a certain extent, but by hanging on to Reyes the Mets may have missed out on most of the value they could have gotten from their best trade chip.

This situation is quite unique, as it required the change in compensation systems and the Marlins’ decision to push for most of the top-tier Free Agents to their lineup. However, it offers a reminder of the uncertainty surrounding any Free Agent market and the old Elias Ranking compensation rules. For a team that needs young talent as badly as the Mets, holding onto Reyes to appease the fanbase for a few months was simply a risk they couldn’t take. Although I’ve been impressed by Sandy Alderson’s tenure with the Mets so far, taking the PR hit at the deadline would have been worth trading Reyes, as it now represents the difference between the prospects that might have been available in a deadline deal and the third- or fourth-round draft pick the team will now receive. If Reyes had signed for a team that would have resulted in the Mets’ receiving a first-round pick as compensation, the Mets still probably could have gotten more value for him in a trade. With a first-rounder as the best-case scenario, and the possibility for that pick to drop further, the team should have taken Reyes’ value in prospects when they had the opportunity. Instead, Reyes’ compensation represents another setback for the Mets in their push to return to the playoffs and emerge from the shadow of their cross-town rivals.

Will Reyes still call Citi Field home in 2012?

After some encouraging moments, the 2011 season is essentially over for the Mets. Actually, it’s been over for a while.

So it’s not too soon to talk about 2012, since General Manager Sandy Alderson is building for next year and beyond. Here is how next year’s starting lineup shapes up:

JOSH THOLE (C): Thole needs to play 120-130 games next year for the Mets to see if he can be a solid starter. The jury is still out on Thole, who probably needs to hit .280 with a little more power to solidify the starting job. Defensively, hopefully he can make progress as well.

IKE DAVIS (1B): It was so unfortunate to see Davis go down with a serious injury on such a fluke play (when he collided with David Wright). If Davis is ready to go in 2012, he should be a 30-HR, 100-RBI guy, or close to it.

JUSTIN TURNER (2B): As with Thole, the Mets need to find out how Turner would do with more than 500 at-bats. If Turner can hit for a higher average (.280) and a little more power, the Mets would probably be happy.

JOSE REYES (SS): Everyone on the planet knows Reyes is going to be a free agent, and indications are the Mets are going to try hard to keep him. Despite the injury risk, the Mets need to keep the most exciting player on their roster. He still may become the first Mets player to win a batting title – the only drama left at Citi Field in 2011.

DAVID WRIGHT (3B): The Mets just need Wright to be Wright, and stay injury-free. No one seemed to avoid the injury bug this year, and hopefully next season the Mets’ fortune in this area will change.

JASON BAY (LF): The best thing the Mets could do for Bay would be to trade him to a team such as the Rockies or the Cubs with a hitter-friendly stadium. If the Mets pick up some of the salary, maybe some team would take a flyer on Bay. However, this is about as unlikely as winning the lottery, and Bay will likely remain a Met. Can he find his power stroke at Citi? I am pessimistic, but you never know.

ANGEL PAGAN (CF): The Mets need the Pagan of 2010, not 2011. The way Pagan is playing now, though, his numbers at the end of the year may come close to matching the numbers of 210, where he hit .290 with   37 steals. Pagan is hitting .261 with 25 steals through Friday. The Mets are not a bad team with Reyes and Pagan batting 1-2.

LUCAS DUDA (RF): Duda, aka The Big Lebowski, has become my favorite player of 2011. He is playing first base right now, but should play right field next season with Davis back. I love the power potential this guy has.

DANIEL MURPHY (UTILITY): Murphy is a Met without a position, but he would be perfect in a utility role next year. As we saw this year, injuries can happen in bunches, and Murph most likely will get 300-500 at-bats next season filling various roles.

Francisco Rodriquez (aka K-Rod) image taken from Google Images

The Mets’ trade of Francisco Rodriquez to the Brewers was a good one because it gives them a much better chance of signing Jose Reyes in the offseason.

The Mets dumped their closer to Milwaukee for players to be named later. In doing so, they don’t have to worry about the financial repercussions of K-Rod’s contract anymore. The potential $19 million the financially-troubled Mets would have had to pay Rodriguez next season has now disappeared. The Mets have more financial freedom to make Reyes a big offer, which they will need to do come the winter.

And losing K-Rod on the field is not a devastating blow. While K-Rod is a solid closer, he is not irreplaceable. Jason Isringhausen and Bobby Parnell will be adequate replacements, and the Mets will not lose much, if anything.

Once the Mets trade Carlos Beltran, though, the impact will be felt more strongly. Beltran  was an All-Star this season and the Mets’ only consistent power threat. But hopefully by the time Beltran is traded before the July 31 deadline, the Mets will have David Wright and Reyes back in the lineup. Both should be back within a week.

Should K-Rod finish 55 games – he has finished 34 so far this year – the Brewers will be on the hook for a whopping $17.5 million in 2012. Rodriguez has been among the elite relievers of the past decade and is still only 29 years old, but his shine has come off in recent seasons due to decline, injury and his notorious arrest after assaulting his father-in-law in 2010. K-Rod has merely been much closer to an average reliever rather than an elite since signing his heafty 3-year, $37 million contract with the Mets in 2008. $17.5 million would be financially crippling to a mid-market team such as the Brewers as they try to reload for 2012.

With the Brewers tied for first place at the halfway mark, this calculated dice-rolling continues a pattern we have seen from Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin since last offseason. After 2010, many experts speculated the Brewers would trade their star first baseman Prince Fielder – a free agent after 2011 – for club-controlled talent to create a window for contention a few years down the road. However, the Brewers front office identified current market trends that undervalued players one or two years away from free agency while the price of prospects had risen in recent years. Thus, the Brewers decided not to trade Fielder, mortgage the farm for star pitchers Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, and declared 2011 as the year the Brewers go all-in for the NL Central crown.

Axford has been an integral part of the Brewers success in 2011 and they will probably count on him in 2012 as well, but with the financial complications K-Rod brings with him to the team, Axford’s health and performance may be the most important asset to the Brewers success in the present and near future.