You can tell there is a different perception of the Reds in Cincinnati when fans seem to be getting impatient and worried after a 14-13 start in April.  The Reds had a very easy schedule, facing the Astros, Pirates, Padres and Diamondbacks twice, but were unable to capitalize because of injuries and all around inconsistent play.  Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto will be just returned, which should provide a much needed pitching boost, but can the rest of the team play better as well?  Last year the Reds were 12-11 after April, and ended up winning the NL Central, so there is no need to panic one month in.

Position Players

C: Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez have almost split playing time right down the middle with Hanigan getting 50 at bats compared to Hernandez’ 49.  The catching tandem has been pretty successful so far this year, but Hanigan has had a weak April with a .220 batting average.  During the first three games of the season this duo combined for 9 hits (3 home runs, 7 RBI) including Hernandez’s walk off on Opening Day and Hanigan’s 2 home run game vs Milwaukee, but have since cooled down.

Grade: B-

1B: Joey Votto follows up his MVP year with an incredible April, where he had a .504 OBP and reached base in every single game.  Votto batted .370 and never had his OPS fall below 1.000 and also had 10 multi-hit games throughout the month.  He also lead the team in runs scored (24), walks (23), and total hits (34).  Votto performed much better than last year in April; with 5 more walks and 8 less strikeouts as well as 12 more hits and double the runs scored.  Joey Votto leads the team or is second in every major hitting category with 5 home runs, 16 RBI, and a .504 OBP.  ESPN analysts Buster Olney and Jayson Stark have declared Votto the Player of the Month for April in the National League, over Andre Eithier who has had a hit in nearly every game so far this year.  It’s safe to say that if Votto performs anything like this all year he will be in the running for another NL MVP award and the Reds will be in the race for the NL Central crown.

Grade: A+

2B: Brandon Phillips has been exceptional this April both offensively and defensively.  His batting stats are much higher than his career numbers, which indicates a very hot Brandon Phillips as well as an improved one.  At age 29, Brandon Phillips is in his prime, and from the stats one can assume that he has made mature adjustments at the plate this year.  He went on a tear in early April where he scored 8 runs in 3 games where he got on base 10 times, and was in first in MLB in runs scored for the first half of April until he got hurt and missed 4 games.  After looking at some numbers, it’s fairly obvious where Brandon has improved – his vision.  His K to walk ratio is at 1.25, which is easily a career high.  In his last two years he finished at a 1.70 and 1.80 K/BB ratio. Now we can look a little deeper to see maybe why that number has gone down.  A quick glance at his plate discipline stats shows why Brandon has made improvements, with a 95.6% Zone Contact rate.  That basically means of all the strikes that he swings at, he makes contact with 95.6% of them, which has a drastic increase from last year where he was at 88.7%.  There are other factors for his improvement, but that stat alone shows that Phillips is putting more balls into play, which equals a better chance of getting more hits.

Grade: A+

3B: Third base has been an issue for the Reds in April, where Scott Rolen, Juan Francisco, Miguel Cairo and Paul Janish have all started games.  Rolen suffered a shoulder injury and has been out since April 21^st, leaving it up to the other four guys to split time.  Francisco was the original replacement until he also got hurt, and since then Cairo and Janish have split starts at 3^rd.  While Rolen was playing, he still had a very weak April with only 2 walks in 60 at bats, while striking out 11 times.  This lead to an atrocious .250 OBP for Scott.  Hopefully the time off for Rolen brings him back for a strong late-May return.

Grade: D

SS: Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria have been a decent tandem at shortstop, with Janish getting 86 at bats in April versus Renteria’s 51 at bats.  Janish had a solid April with a .291 average and 25 hits when he started at shortstop.  Renteria has been a sufficient back-up at short batting .255 with a .328 OBP when called upon.  Nothing special from either of the guys, but pretty much what reasonable Reds fans expected out of this position.

Grade: B-

LF: Jonny Gomes has been getting the bulk of the at bats in left field, with an occasional Chris Heisey appearance, and he had a very wacky April.  Gomes sat right on the Mendoza line at the end of April, but had an amazing month in terms of getting on base with a .374 OBP.  He also led the team in home runs with 6, while driving in 16 runs.  Obviously Gomes’ average could be tolerable if he kept up this walk rate, but looking at his career numbers it’s highly unlikely he continues to walk at this rate.  His rates are easily explainable by ridiculous changes in his plate discipline stats.  The changes have occurred in his swinging % at balls outside of the zone and inside of the zone.  His overall swing % has gone down from 51.7% in 2010 to 33.7%, his swinging at strikes % has gone down from 70.7% to 52.7%, and his swinging at balls % has gone from 37.7% to 19.8%.  Notice the 18% difference in swinging at strikes, and 17.9% change in swinging at balls – nearly exact replicas.  This tells me Gomes may just be guessing beforehand what pitches to swing at and not swing at, regardless of where they end up.  This will be a fun trend to follow for next month’s edition of the review.

Grade: C+

CF: Drew Stubbs had a decent April, following his career splits almost identically.  He had a .250 average and had 5 home runs on 27 hits and was among the league leaders in runs with 20.  It’ll be interesting to see if there is any improvement over the whole season from Stubbs, or if he will stay like this for his whole career.

Grade: B

RF: Jay Bruce had a very weak April, but did show some signs of improvement near the end.  He ended up with a .228 and a weak .301 OBP.  In the first half of the month he had 6 multi strikeout games, but showed signs of improvement in the second half with only 2 multi strikeout games.  7 of his 10 walks also occurred during this second half of April, which also shows Bruce is starting to see the ball better which may lead to a better May.

Grade: C

Starting Pitchers

The headlines for the Reds’ rotation in April easily were Mike Leake stealing t-shirts from Macy’s and Edinson Volquez giving up at least a run in the first inning of 4 of his 5 starts.  Reds’ starters were a combined 9-7 in the month of April, but really had an issue getting to the 7^th inning – which only happened 4 times all month.  Reds’ fans are hoping the return of Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey in early May provide a much needed boost to the rotation that will most likely demote Sam Lecure and Wood/Leake to the bullpen or AAA.  The best starter has easily been Arroyo who is 3-2 and is the only Reds’ starter who has an ERA below 4.00 with a 3.64 ERA.  He’s also the only starter to have an outing without giving up an earned run.

Grade: C+

Bullpen

The bullpen has had its rough spots, but in general has been very strong despite slow starts from Nick Masset and Jordan Smith.  Bill Bray, Francisco Cordero, Aroldis Chapman and Logan Ondrusek all had ERAs under 1.50.  I have a little write-up on why I think Masset will turn it around on my blog, check it out here: http://redscheatsheet.blogspot.com/2011/04/off-day-masset-tidbits.html .  Jordan Smith may not be a huge asset to this bullpen, especially with his slow start.  With all of the depth (Lecure + Leake/Wood, Arredondo in minors, Fisher, etc) at the ML level and minor league level a player may not last very long if they don’t perform.  Cordero had a solid April with only giving up 2 runs and not blowing a save in 4 chances, it’s safe to expect a great year from him as he is in a contract year.

Grade: B

I now see that it is much easier doing one of these with at least one more person like on the BBA Baseball Talk podcasts or online with the guys over at Pro Rumors TV.

Either way, I hope you enjoy this & I’ll work on improving this as I do more of these solo webcasts thanks to my new laptop with the built in webcam!

So without further ado, on with the webcast…

Sorry for the delay…we have some technical difficulties with YouTube earlier that had to wait until I got home from work. I went 2:05 over the allowed 15 minute time frame.

American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions from Peter Schiller on Vimeo.

This 17 minute webcast (my first) is my American & National League Divisional Series Preview/Predictions.

Please let me know if you think it is too long.
Thanks!

The first choice of Reds fans would be the popular and powerful Gomes. A fun-loving type, Gomes won over Cincinnati baseball fans much as he had in Tampa Bay, and is regarded as a strong, positive force in the clubhouse. Gomes hit .267 and belted 20 HR in 291 AB during the 2009 season, posting the team’s second highest OPS+ behind only Joey Votto. The knocks on Gomes are a sluggish glove in the corner outfield spots, and a bat that performs better against lefty pitching than right-handers. Most of Gomes’ work in 2009 was against lefties. There is also the matter of cost. Gomes would be the most expensive of the LF options, requiring either a multi-year agreement, arbitration, or exposure to the free agent pool. After his solid season, Gomes figures to get a seven- figure deal. He has indicated he would accept arbitration if the Reds offer it, but wants to go where he can play full-time.

Balentien is a choice similar to Gomes, though he is four years younger and has a less impressive track record. Unfortunately, Reds manager Dusty Baker did not see fit to use Balentien regularly down the stretch to test his readiness, instead favoring lesser choices like Darnell McDonald and Laynce Nix. Balentien is a better fielder than Gomes, but has had struggles at bat even though he has shown excellent power potential. He has the highest ceiling of any candidate, but also carries the most risk.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The other two candidates and their availability also depends on how the center field job is awarded. If youngster Drew Stubbs is awarded CF on the basis of his solid audition at the end of 2009, then both are available for LF duty. If that is the case, Dickerson would be a strong candidate for LF, and to lead off. Dickerson kept pushing himself into more playing time last year, doing good things every time he was in the lineup. He also has good speed and excellent on-base skills, plays strong defense, and hits for some power. If Gomes is not retained, the most likely situation is a Dickerson/Balentien platoon, as Dickerson is the only left-handed hitting candidate for the job. In any case, Dickerson will get plenty of playing time in center and/or left, if he can stay healthy enough to remain in the lineup. This was his biggest problem last year.

The wild card in this situation is veteran Willy Taveras, signed for $4 million for 2010. Taveras was signed to fill the center field and leadoff roles, but played badly in 2009 and was also sidelined for a great deal of time, which allowed first Dickerson and then Stubbs openings to impress. Now, given
manager Dusty Baker’s love of veterans, Taveras might get a lot of center field play anyway, but a Juan Pierre-like move to left field with Stubbs in center is not out of the realm of possibility. This is the true unknown for 2010, what will be done with Taveras. Many Reds fans would just as soon he be tarred and feathered, but if the club cannot move him, he is likely to be on the roster, and if he is Baker will find ways to play him.

The first marker to look for is whether Gomes is offered arbitration. If he is, the other dominoes will fall. If he is not, then things will only have begun to get interesting.

A team needs a plan.  A losing team especially needs a plan.  So, the Cincinnati Reds need a plan.  Do they have one?  Recent evidence calls this into question.

Owner Robert Castellini has installed a win-now team, going with a veteran manager in Dusty Baker and a veteran general manager in Walt Jocketty. Castellini said at one point, “We just aren’t going to lose any more”  All these things point to a win-now philosophy.  At the same time, at the end of last season Jocketty dealt off sluggers Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn as their contracts expired, with the team not expecting to re-sign either.   That pointed to a rebuilding phase.  So, which was it?  It’s still hard to tell.

Plans for 2009 were scattered.  The Reds planned to switch to a pitching, defense, and speed strategy, with their main power sources gone.  New young arms were in place, Willy Taveras was signed to lead off and play center field, and there were plans to play youngsters in many spots.  At the same time, veteran Ramon Hernandez was also brought in, and Alex Gonzalez was returning to the shortstop job, so this wasn’t exactly an all-in youth movement.

Projections indicated that the Reds had a shot at a .500 record for the first time since 2000, with veterans filling spots not belonging to improving young talent.  That looked promising to fans, who were tired of the sluggardly sluggers clogging up bases and striking out while doing poorly afield.  This would be a more exciting Reds team.  The year began with low expectations but a sense of fun.

After starting the year with two losses, things got better, and the team hung around .500 for awhile, reaching a peak of 20-14 on May 14, on which date they were tied for the division lead.  They were last at .500 on July 7, at 41-41. At that point the bottom fell out on the season as the injuries began. The Reds sank to the bottom of the standings.  Now what?

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The smart team would start running auditions for next year, maybe trade off some veterans for young talent, trying to build the next good team. The Reds…traded for a 35-year old third baseman, Scott Rolen.  To get him, they traded their younger 3B, Edwin Encarnacion, and two young pitchers.  They also picked up a young outfielder cheap in Wladimir Balentien. Balentien, talented but struggling in Seattle, is the type of talent a struggling team should pick up. But Rolen?

The deal is indicative of the same bipolar condition of the franchise.  At one and the same time, they seem to be trying to rebuild while acquiring pieces designed to win now.  A player like Rolen is a short-term fix, while Balentien is a project. Do the Reds really think that Rolen will lead them to victory?

This is just speculation, but it seems almost like Jocketty is trying to rebuild without telling his owner what he is doing.  Unfortunately, Baker doesn’t seem to be in on the secret, because he keeps giving playing time to guys who are spare parts (Darnell McDonald) instead of to the projects the Reds need to develop, or decide to discard (Balentien). Rolen becomes something of a Red herring, brought in because he is a native (from southern Indiana) who wanted to return home, and could provide that valued veteran leadership. Whether he can still play at a championship level is open to question, but Rolen is a seasoned veteran.

At the same time, Paul Janish getting playing time at shortstop is a positive, and Ryan Hanigan has given reason for hope behind the plate.  With Taveras hurt, Drew Stubbs has been able to get a chance to impress.  They could all be part of the next Reds team that exceeds .500.  The question of whether that will be in 2010 or in a later year remains to be seen.  Part of the answer will depend on whether the right decisions are made the rest of this season, and in the offseason.

The Reds sit at 26-22 on the last day of May, just 2.5 games out of first place.  This should be a familiar record for the Reds this season.  With their brand of strong starting pitching, team speed, and improved defense, this team will be between three and seven games over .500 for most of the season.  The big question will be how they handle the pressure of September.  Trading away Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. was necessary for this team to create it’s own identity, shifting away from two ‘stars’ that simply did not want that leadership role.

This season, the Reds have a manager in Dusty Baker (proven winner) and a GM Walt Jocketty (2006 World Series to his credit) that both know how to win, and know how to put the right pieces together.  As Herb Brooks famously said before the 1980 Olympics…It’s not about the best players, it’s about the right ones.

The Reds still have their issues:  no consistent right-handed power threat in the lineup (although Jonny Gomes can provide pop off the bench), Jay Bruce failing to make adjustments since his hot start last season, and what the hell is wrong with Joey Votto?

That all being said, the Reds have held their own with patchwork lineups because of a rock solid 1-4 pitching rotation and Micah Owings consistently giving the team five innings and five earned runs, which at least gives them a fighting chance.

Outside of Jared Burton and Mike Lincoln (who have been train wrecks this season), the bullpen has been fantastic.  Arthur Rhodes and David Weathers have given up just six earned runs between them and Francisco Cordero is 13 for 13 in save opportunities.

Image by team doster via Flickr

The most notable ‘under the radar’ performance this year comes from Nick Masset, who is 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings pitched.  Not bad for someone that was an afterthought in the Ken Griffey, Jr. trade last season.

The Reds need to get their stars healthy (Phillips and Votto) and need to continue to get strong performances from their bullpen.  If that happens, the Reds will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt when September rolls around.  Their starting pitching is just too good for it not to happen.

The real question is whether the team can reel off 20 wins in September to seal the deal.

Though Cincinnati has not posted a winning record since the 2000 season, there is a renewed sense of optimism in 2009 that the decade of disappointment may finally be over.

While early season performance is rarely an accurate measurement for how a team will perform over a 162-game season, the 4-3 start posted by the Reds does at least illustrate that the team has the potential to be a contender in 2009.

Recognizing that most competitive teams need a mix of talented youngsters and seasoned veterans, the Reds have created a roster that has an excellent balance between youth and experience.

1B Joey Votto

Leading the way is talented first baseman Joey Votto. After hitting .297 with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs in his first full major league season a year ago, Votto has started 2009 on fire with a .393 average and 10 RBIs in the first seven games of the season.

Though he has not exploded out of the box in 2009 at the same level as Votto, second year starting rightfielder Jay Bruce has the talent to serve as an excellent compliment to Votto. Bruce hit .254 with 21 home runs last season and could be an anchor in the outfield for the Reds for many years to come.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.261 BA, 21 HR, 78 RBI in 2008) and third baseman Edwin Encarnacion (.251 BA, 26 HR) combine with Votto to give the Reds a young and talented infield. Veterans Alex Gonzalez and Jerry Hairston Jr. provide the Reds with depth and experience in the infield.

After hitting .304 during his first major league action late last season, Chris Dickerson will look to earn regular playing time in 2009. Willy Tavares (.251 BA, 64 runs for Colorado in 2008), Darnell McDonald and Laynce Nix will also see action in the outfield.

Veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez (.257 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI for Baltimore) provides leadership and experience behind the plate. Backup Ryan Hanigan (.271 BA) was solid after being given a chance to play extensively during the final month of 2008 and gives the Reds much needed depth behind the plate.

The Reds pitching staff also includes a mixture of veterans and young hurlers.

Leading the starting rotation is a quartet of hurlers capable of lasting late into games. Edinson Volquez (17-6, 3.21 ERA) was a key addition a year ago and has the ability to be a staff ace.

The 6-17 record posted by Aaron Harang a year ago was as much a result of a lack of run support as it was due to his own performance. Bronson Arroyo (15-11, 4.77) is another solid veteran hurler who provides depth and experience.

Second year pro Johnny Cueto posted a 9-14 record as a rookie, but showed glimpses of being a top-of-the-rotation pitcher down the road. Micah Owings (6-9, 5.95 for Arizona) also can be a solid starter for the Reds.

The bullpen includes closer Francisco Cordero (34 saves) as well as veteran setup men David Weathers (4-0, 3.25) and Arthur Rhodes (4-2, 2.04 for Seattle). Jared Burton (5-1, 3.22) and Nick Masset (2-0, 3.92) are among the young relievers who provide depth in the bullpen.

Given the annual volatility experienced in the National League Central, it is tough to predict whether the Reds will contend this season. While the Chicago Cubs, winners of the last two division titles, will likely be in contention, it is difficult to predict which other teams will be around come playoff time. In addition to an improving Cincinnati team, the St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers all have the potential to be in contention throughout the season.

To read more from Dean, go to his sports blog: Sports Then and Now

Cincinnati had a dismal season once again, going 74-88 and finishing fifth in the National league Central. After the hire of manager Dusty Baker in the off season, many believed the Reds would improve this year and while they received some good individual performances from some young talent, they were still disappointing in the standings. Their general manager, Walt Jocketty was able to get rid of his overpaid talent when he traded both Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn during the middle of the season. In return for their trades, it seems like the Reds made some smart moves and acquired some talent that looks promising and may even contribute as soon as next season. While they are not famous for spending a lot of money, they did have a respectable $74.1 million invested last season which placed them 18^th in the majors.

Holes to Fill

Like every other team this off season, the Reds will be looking to add some power to their line-up in various places. While they were able to get rid of some aging, or overpaid talent, they were not able to pick up any proven power hitters to replace them. Near the end of the season, it seemed like there was very little pop from a line-up that has been known for having no trouble tearing the cover off the ball at times. They have needs at almost every position including left and center field, shortstop (although it seems like Alex Gonzalez could win that spot if he can stay healthy), third base and catcher. Obviously they would be happy with any power in any of these positions. Their young starting rotation is no doubt the strength of their team, but they are extremely inexperienced. Acquiring one, or even two, mid-level free agents to compliment what Baker already has in his rotation could only help their young guns learn the ropes in the majors.

Free Agents

The Reds free agents include right handed pitchers Mike Lincoln, Josh Fogg and David Weathers, left handed pitchers Kent Mercker and Jeremy Affeldt, outfielder Corey Patterson, catchers Paul Bako and Havier Valentine, as well as utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. The majority of these players will probably leave via free agency, or in the case of Mercker, retire. Although the team has expressed interest in attempting to re-sign some of the players and Hairston has headed this list. Weathers is another name that the Reds seem content on keeping as long as the price fits what they are aiming for and it seems very likely that he could end up playing in south west Ohio again next season.

The Outlook

The Reds really need to improve across the board in all statistical categories and seemed to make moves during the season that would better them for the future. While they have yet to land any player via free agency or trade thus far in the young off season, Jocketty is usually good at targeting the players he deems to be future performers at his price range and some how corralling them to Cincinnati. While the play of Joey Votto at first was no doubt one of the highlights for the Reds this season, they have many holes to fill and while his stability is nice, Jocketty will be looking to build a line-up around him that can hopefully use his skill set to its fullest potential. Starters Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez started the season wet behind the ears, but were featured on national sports shows perhaps more than any other Red because of their sterling performances this season. Even though these players preformed well for the team last year, the Reds are still a long way from competing (especially in their division). They may be able to climb up a spot, in their division ranking, but going any further than that would seem unlikely.

Off Season Moves Made so Far

The Reds have not made a single transaction this off season. The last acquisition they made was on September 12 when they named pitcher Micah Owings the player to be named later in a deal they made earlier in the season with the Arizona Diamondbacks.