Both Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum are in the middle of working on contract extensions. The Milwaukee infield is abysmal with the exception of Rickie Weeks. The Brewers really relied on the Fielder/Braun combo for a large portion of their offensive production. If I were the GM over in Milwaukee I would use this opportunity to rebuild. Don’t sign fielder, shop Greinke and Marcum and get some pieces that will help you for 2013-’14 because 2012 is essentially a loss without Braun in the lineup. I think the biggest mistake would be to continue the game plan and hope that they can pick back up in the second half of 2012. The offense isn’t strong enough to hold everything together without Braun in such a strong division.

Billy Beane decided to essentially toss any hope for A’s fans out the window yesterday when he dealt young ace in the making Trevor Cahill and effective RP Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for SP prospect Jarrod Parker and two “prospects”. This move is significant for the D’backs as their outlook on 2012 takes a sudden jump by adding a ground ball specialist with the best sinker in the game since former D’Backs ace, Brandon Webb.

By adding Cahill the D’backs add a ton of depth in a rotation that was questionable at the end. I think Cahill is the best pitcher on the D’backs right now, and will likely continue to get better if he can command his sinker a bit better going forward. I tweet’d yesterday that I have been wary of Cahill’s health. While watching him in 2012 I noticed a slight difference in both his arm angle and the depth of his sinker. Although he regressed on a statistical end, which was expected, he also gave me warning signs on the eye test. If I’m wrong, which is quite possible, Arizona wins this trade in a vacuum. Reason I say that is because Parker will likely perform significantly better in Oakland than he would in Arizona. The ballpark factor cannot be denied here in Parker’s side, much less in Cahill’s due to his extreme ground ball splits. I would look to see Cahill back off of the slow breaking curve and use his power sinker a bit more, especially when pitching at home vs. teams with pop.

Parker is your typical scouts dream. He’s got big velocity, a change with depth and a slider that was much better prior to Tommy John surgery which may return but if not he can use it as a show me pitch. I don’t necessarily see how this trade really benefits anybody other than Arizona, as Cahill is likely to be better than Parker even if only by a small margin, and is cost efficient and we know what he’s going to make until 2017. If Parker develops into an ace, Oakland will almost certainly need to move him and move him quickly because they’re about the same age, only difference is that Cahill signed a team-friendly extension last season. The prospects given along with Parker aren’t of impact, unless Ryan Cook magically learns how to command his breaking ball.

Arizona fans have a lot to be excited about if Cahill is healthy, but I am one of the few out there who isn’t exactly sold on that fact. Time will tell.

Arte Moreno passed on several big names (or was outbid) over the past couple of off-seasons. He passed on Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in 2010, and last year passed up on Carl Crawford and his recently departed #1 starter in John Lackey. By doing so, he has landed the best hitter of my lifetime and arguably the best hitter of all time in Albert Pujols. At 10 years/$254MM, the Angels are betting that within the next 2-3 years they will be a major threat to win the World Series. By signing Wilson to a 6-year $77MM deal, they provided depth in their rotation that is a fearsome group. Not to mention, there are still rumors that they will look to deal defensive wiz Peter Bourjos in order to bolster their bullpen. This would allow Mike Trout to get a full season of solid defense and base-running for Mike Soscia with the potential that he advances with the bat and provides some pop.

With an excellent rotation, and a solid lineup the Angels look like they’ve leaped ahead of division rival Texas Rangers. Even if Texas goes out and signs Prince Fielder, I’m not sold on their rotation or their bullpen for that matter. Neftali Feliz, although talented, is an arm strength guy at this point in his career and will have some growing pains that will be tough to swallow when the club is built to win now. Texas is hoping that Feliz and Holland develop, and do so quickly otherwise they will not beat the Angels in a 5 or 7 game series.

Let me be clear here: I am not as excited about LA’s lineup as others are. There are still holes and aging players  all through the lineup. Pujols will not be put in many situations to win games single-handedly as there is no real offensive threat behind him. Guys like Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and carry heavy salaries. The window is short, and there will be an enormous amount of pressure on Jerry DiPoto to win and win NOW.

Nobody is going to tell me that pitching wins did not have a part of the decision here. Zack Greinke had a season two years ago that was arguably more dominant than Verlander, and the discussion at the time was whether or not he could possibly win the Cy Young due to his low win-total. Last year you saw Felix Hernandez dominate hitters all season long, and again, the discussion was whether or not he should win the Cy (even though he inevitably did win). Now Verlander comes along and puts up very impressive numbers, but also 24 wins to boost his case and he wins the MVP after making 36 apperances.

The ironic part of this all is that it seems as though Granderson, Ellsbury and Bautista took votes away from each other. There was a writer in Boston who basically said he voted for Verlander because “nobody stood out” to him. That is a ridiculous argument that makes me embarrassed to say he collects a paycheck to write his opinion. The award is given to the player who provides the most value. It seems as though there has been no real discussion of the standards of the award. But then again, some writers still vote based on pitching win totals, so I won’t get too far ahead of myself.

With that said, here’s my final ranking of who I would have voted for given a ballot:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Jose Bautista
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Justin Verlander
5. Miguel Cabrera

David Freese and Allen Craig have shown a very advanced approach at the plate. They get on base, can hit for extra bases and work counts into their favor. At the beginning of 2011 it looked as though if Pujols leaves, the Cards are in a world of hurt. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Recently the Cards picked up Adam Wainwright’s club option for 2012 and 2013 due to his progress in rehab. There was a rumor of a slim chance that Wainwright would possibly be available to pitch in the World Series, but I’m sure nobody believed that. It is a good sign that he is regaining his stuff.

Aside from the development of Freese and Craig, the Cards have two fireballers that are major league ready for 2012. It would come as no shock if Chris Carpenter regresses due to his age, but even if he is 85% the pitcher he is now, the Cardinals will have a fearsome pitching staff come second half of 2012 and beginning of 2013. Both Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez are aces in the making, with Miller ready to produce now. Martinez may need some additional development to start 2012, but the originally drafted Red Sox throws in the upper 90′s, touching triple digits at times even into the later innings.

There is no discounting the major loss in production that losing the best hitter of all time will have on the Cards, but not all is lost. With some minor complimentary pieces added, they could be a force over the next 4-5 years. There is a press conference with Tony LaRussa scheduled and rumor is a possible retirement. If so, it’s possible that Dave Duncan moves over to take the reigns. He has been reluctant to a management opportunity in the past, but a promotion in St. Louis would be completely different circumstances, ones which I believe Duncan would embrace.

Now there is less and less room for error in front offices, and clubs are finding value in players that they previously overlooked. Teams are finding an even more “true” value for all the analytical metrics out there. Stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) are a way for the less statistically inclined, but hardcore fan to take a look at a players overall value. The counting stats that almost everyone can relate to are taking a backseat to true value-based stats. This is the concept behind Money Ball, but it’s just becoming common knowledge and lingo now.

St. Louis Cardinals are a great example of a mid-market team capitalizing on their peak skill level. They may (and probably will) lose arguably the best hitter of all-time in the off-season to free agency, but their team is deep, and there is a wave of talent coming up that will allow them to soften the blow of losing Pujols. Other mid-market teams are losing these types of players and taking years, if not decades to recover.

That’s what makes this series so interesting. You have the Rangers powerful lineup full of sluggers, and big power arms. Then you have the Adam Wainwright-less St. Louis Cardinals with an AL-style lineup with depth and a bullpen that is performing well at the right time. That’s really the key to playoff baseball, getting in a rhythm when it matters most. You can say that teams play 162 games all year to lose a small series and be out of contention and denote the importance of the playoffs, or you can take it for what it is and enjoy it. I choose to enjoy it, and relish at how incredibly close in talent these two teams are.

Enjoy this World Series and think about how the game has changed. Embrace it, because in a league with no salary cap, we’re finally seeing the day we never thought we would see.

Through my time as a professional poker player in college, I dabbled and experimented and educated myself in any way possible to gain an edge on the competition. For those of you whom are not aware, poker has adapted (especially online poker) from old school degenerate gamblers who are dumb as rocks, to extremely intelligent and talented mathematicians who are ready and willing to exploit any edge they can identify. It has adapted beyond a game of cards, into a smaller, less complex version of the stock market. One of the topics I found extremely interesting was game theory. In essence, what game theory teaches you, or attempts to teach you is the way to “solve” a particular set of problems. In reality, that’s what any game is: a set of problems that must be solved as efficiently as possible to achieve the greatest result. As in poker, there is a few players who are so talented mathematically that they have “solved” heads-up limit hold’em to create a situation where no opponent can achieve an edge more than 50%. Incredible, but even a computer cannot beat these brilliant minds when playing optimally over a big enough sample size.

Baseball analysis is advancing at light speed. The terms the average fan uses now were advanced concepts 10 years ago. The thing that GM’s are using now are ways to come as close to an optimal decision as possible, all things considered of course. They may not be right every single time, but they’re right more often.. and that’s all you can really do in business, in the markets, and in life. Using mathematics with an ever-increasing sample size is allowing the brilliant minds to undercover things the naked eye can’t and won’t see. About a month ago I was on a plane and thought of how many similar parts there are to poker, investing and baseball.

So I proposed a question that I still don’t quite have the answer to: Is it possible to apply game theory to pitch selection. And if so, are pitchers and/or pitching coaches currently using these methods in pre-game preparation and analysis of opposing pitchers? If a pitcher throws a 3-2 fastball too often, he’s not optimally presenting enough of a portfolio of pitches and will likely be hit hard. Almost anybody can figure this out, but is there room for improvement and who is capable of doing this? The first guy that comes to mind is Cliff Lee. He is mechanically sound, and doesn’t give away what he is throwing. He is able to throw 5-6 different pitches and command/control them all with great proficiency. He often throws a pitch that you don’t expect him to because he has the ability to locate every pitch in his arsenal. But is that feel, or does he apply math to his pitching sequences? I have no clue because I am not his pitching coach, but it’s interesting to think about and if this is something pitching coaches and organizations have philosophically taken on.

What do you think?

Photo taken from Google Images

Listening to the most recent comments Sandy Alderson made to the New York Post, it has become more likely that he has little to no interest in adding any more players before spring training. Very few fans expected this team to do much this offseason, but it is impossible for a team who needed so much to improve to do so little. We can talk all day about the financial constraints, but it is pretty obvious Alderson did all his work in one day. Remember, he has JP Riccardi and Paul Depodesta on his staff; apparently they are only needed for the draft.
As a Mets fan, it is most frustrating because any free agent, no matter how little the price, can be worked into the Mets roster and make the team a little deeper. And because of this lack of interest, the Mets will employ players on their team that don’t belong in the major leagues. In return, there will be players who will start the 2012 season without a team. The players union should be concerned about what the Mets are doing, even though they can’t prove the Mets are colluding against bringing in players.
So the Mets will go into opening day with what they have right now, exciting right? I wanted to compose a list of the top ten concerns going in to the 2012 season, but there a lot more than that. So, I had to keep it to the composition of the roster. That means concerns like David Wright and Jason Bay returning to form, Lucas Duda playing right field, Ruben Tejada playing every day at shortstop, Mike Pelfrey getting over his psychological issues and Ike Davis returning from his surgery all have to be left off this list. If I missed anything, I apologize and feel free to leave it in the comment section below. Without further due, here are the top ten roster concerns that the Mets refused to address. I will refer to this before opening day as well as at the all-star break and the end of the 2012 season and see how many of these issues blow up in the Mets face.
10. Frank Francisco as the closer: I understand the Mets could have done worse. The main reason I think the Mets upgraded their bullpen is the addition of Ramon Ramirez. Francisco has had some injury problems in his career. He had just 17 saves being the Toronto Blue Jays closer last season. That was not the first time Francisco was given a closer’s job and he wasn’t the primary closer. He was given the job in spring in 2010 with the Texas Rangers and lost the job to eventual rookie of the year Neftali Feliz. He spent some time as a middle reliever, so his 49-70 save completion ratio is not as bad as it looks. The bigger questions are whether he will last the entire season as the closer and if he can stay healthy for the entire season. Good chance Ramon Ramirez becomes the closer and if that happens, what kind of role does Francisco have for the balance of the next two years?
9. Jon Rauch as 8th inning set-up man: Rauch is coming off a terrible season with the Toronto Blue Jays. The optimist would point to his 2010 year with the Minnesota Twins when he was 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 21 saves in 53 games. But, 2011 should be a concern. He finished with a 4.85 ERA and gave up 11 homeruns in just 52 innings pitched. He’s not that old, just 33, but there were many others the Mets could have signed for $3.5 million or less. Perhaps a return to the National League will help Rauch and let’s understand that there are eight bigger concerns with this team than the back of the Mets bullpen.
8. Ronny Cedeno: I didn’t like the Cedeno signing from the beginning. Jack Wilson and Ryan Theriot had more versatility and if Alderson knew then that he wouldn’t bring in any additional depth, a roster spot is being tied up for a player who will only be able to do one thing, back up at shortstop. Cedeno will not be an option as a pinch hitter, perhaps can play 2nd base and that’s it and has little to no speed.
7. Scott Hairston- back up centerfielder: Last year, the Mets started the season with Hairston and Willie Harris backing up in centerfield and this year it will be just Hairston. They also ended up keeping Jason Pridie to play CF for the remainder of the season. With Pridie gone, the Mets have nobody else but Hairston to do the job. Yes, options like Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt DenDekker exist, but they are most likely to start the season in AAA unless either have a tremendous spring training.
6. Last bullpen spot: My biggest concern here is if the last spot goes to DJ Carrasco because he is making $1.2 million for 2012. Pedro Beato may need to spend a little more time in AAA. Some say there is a need for another lefty reliever. If they need to give the job to a lefthander, it will be either journeyman Daniel Herrera or minor league starting pitcher Robert Carson. There are no other legitimate contenders for the position unless you want to include Garrett Olson and Chuck James. A perfect spot for the team to bring a couple of proven arms who will take a minor league contract at this point, but Sandy says the team is “all set”.
5. Daniel Murphy 2B: Murphy is coming off a very good offensive season but still faces many critics. Some feel he may not be able to keep up with the .320 average and may not be the offensive player he was in 2011. Murphy’s biggest concern will be his switching to playing second base full time in 2012. His last two seasons have ended because of collisions at second base turning double plays and he is not known to be the most fleet footed. I understand he is working very hard to get himself ready, but this has to be a concern. If he struggles a little bit defensively, it could affect him at the plate. If it is determined that he can’t play second base, there may not be another place he can play at a regular basis on this team. If it works, his numbers should stand out among 2nd basemen in the NL.
4. Mike Nickeas- back-up catcher: I don’t have a problem if Nickeas won the job in spring training, but it seems like he is getting the job by default. He’s not a bad game caller, but has not spent a full season in the big leagues. Josh Thole needs to be challenged for playing time, and it does not look good if Nickeas is playing every day against left handed pitchers. Perhaps Rob Johnson can win the job, but Thole is the undisputed best catcher on the team and will get the majority of playing time. Still options are available, but the back-up catcher will be one of the team’s biggest weaknesses.
3. Mike Baxter/ Adam Loewen- back-up outfielder/ first off the bench: It will be hard to see either of these players starting in the outfield if either Jason Bay or Lucas Duda gets hurt. Baxter looked overmatched in AAA last season and despite a good 2011 for Loewen, he may need a little more time to gain confidence. Neither would be considered a 4th outfielder on any other team and neither gives a fan confidence as a pinch hitter. Another spot where you would like to see a veteran compete, but it looks like Baxter or Loewen will be in Queens come opening day.
2. Miguel Batista- sixth starter: More speculation states that Johan Santana may not be ready for opening day. Alderson still doesn’t think the Mets need a veteran to compete? Miguel Batista is a competitor. I like what he showed last season. But, at 41, I can’t see him making 30 starts for the Mets this season. We continue to hear that the Mets will not rush Matt Harver, Jeurys Familia and Zach Wheeler, but there is little on this roster that gives the team insurance if one or more starter goes down. And Santana is one of the biggest question marks among starting pitchers in baseball this season?
1. Andres Torres CF: Some of the prior concerns have helped solidify Torres as the number one concern. He hit .221 with 4 HR and 19 RBI in 112 games with the Giants last season. He is, without a doubt, the Mets starting centerfielder. There is also nobody who will be considered to play CF unless Torres gets hurt. When he needs a day off, Hairston is the Mets CF. Jon Heyman agrees with the executive that says Torres is a fifth OF. There is hope that he will be better in the clubhouse than Angel Pagan, but that will only be evident if he is a better hitter than 2011. Why, if the price is right, would the Mets not want to have more depth in their outfield?
I’m sure there are more concerns that will affect the 2012 New York Mets. As I have said before, this team is one major injury away from playing non-major leaguers for the fourth consecutive season. We all know the hope is in the future. But, let’s be honest, it will be a miracle for this team to be competitive. They will need everybody to be healthy, everybody to perform at the top of their game and some of the non-major league players on this projected team need to play above their heads. Good luck!