Despite all my nay-saying and doom-daying, the Chicago Cubs woke up on July 27th and found themselves in first place in the NL Central.  Outside of any performance by the Cubs, here are five reasons which this has happened:

5.         The St. Louis Cardinals have no hitting. A month into the season, the Cardinals looked to have five legitimate, major-league-starter caliber outfielders.  I even joked that maybe one of them could play first base.  Now the Cardinals are trying to give these guys away (literally – they just traded away Chris Duncan, the son of their own pitching coach).  The Cardinals have Albert Pujols and not much else on offense, though Ryan Ludwick is coming around, and it has undermined their pitching staff.  Despite having three dynamite starters, the Cards staff’s won-loss percentage does not reflect their dominance.

4.         The Milwaukee Brewers have no pitching. The Brewers have discovered this season that you can have two of the premier hitters in baseball (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder), some talented support, and one of the greatest closers in baseball history in a renaissance season, and it won’t do anything to cover the sin of a bad rotation.  After Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have four below-average pitchers in Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush (as much as it pains me to say that), Braden Looper, and Manny Parra.  If you don’t have starters, you aren’t in the conversation.

3.         The Cincinnati Reds have no coaching. Dusty Baker has taken a lot of criticism for a lot of things, but none so prescient as that leveled by Larry Dobrow of cbssportsline.com last year when, referring to Baker’s infatuation with Corey Patterson, he noted that Baker cannot accept the fact that speedy defensive minded centerfielders are not always the best leadoff men.  Baker has made this point critically obvious in 2009, as he has refused to notice that Willy Taveras is a terrible leadoff hitter.  To be fair, Baker doesn’t have a lot of options with this lineup period, but he has made the least of the situation.  And frankly, everything else falls in from there.

2.         The Houston Astros have no Lance. Or at least haven’t had Lance Berkman on track so far this season.  But that seems to be changing – Lance’s OPS has been over 1.000 in each of the last two months, and his OBP is over .500 for July.  The Astros lineup revolves around this guy, so when he is off, they are off.  Now that he is back, could the Astros be making a run?

1.         The Pittsburgh Pirates have no chance. Economists have a term called stagflation, in which there is high inflation without economic growth.  In theory, this is worse than a recession or inflation, and can be much more difficult to break out of than either of the alternatives.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a similar situation – they aren’t contenders, which makes them sellers approaching the trade deadline, but they also don’t have enough talent to bring in top name prospects from contending teams.  So they are stuck.

It would appear, thus far, if my theory is correct, that the Cubs are in first place in the NL Central purely based upon the failings of the other teams in the division.  To a certain extent this is correct.  The Brewers, Astros and Cardinals are all either underachieving compared to the production of their players, or underperforming compared to the talent level of their teams.  And Chicago has been the beneficiary.

Nevertheless, some credit must be given to the Cubs.   Credit must start with Derrek Lee, whom I have been deriding all of this season and most of last season.  Lee has stepped up his production dramatically in 2009, has already matched last year’s homerun total, and is hitting into way fewer double plays.  But lest we get excited, he is still a home-field hero – he has a .757 road OPS and 15 of his 20 homeruns have come at home.  He is better, but let’s not go celebrating to vehemently.

Aramis Ramirez also appears to be ready to contribute again, after an extended stint on the disabled list.  He is hitting over .300 with an OPS over .900 in July, and will be a crucial factor in the second half.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The real story of the Chicago Cubs fall from grace in 2009 has been the horrendous play of Alfonso Soriano and Geovanny Soto.  For Soto’s part, he looked like he was starting to turn things around before getting hurt earlier this month.  He is a young guy and you might expect inconsistency.  But for Soriano, the dropoff has been stunningly inexplicable.  Soriano is the type of player that playoff teams have to be able to count on, a guy who can be penciled in for a certain level of performance, and he simply has not given it in 2009.  Despite a recent return to form (.342/.383/.553/.935 in the month of July), Soriano is still on pace for the worst season of his career.  Forget Derrek Lee – if the Cubs are going to the playoffs, Soriano has to be one of the top 15 outfielders in the National League.

Complain as we may about the bewilderingly inconsistent Cubs’ offense, the pitching staff is quietly having a good season.  The encouraging news is that the Cubs have been led thus far by Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano.  Rich Harden is actually having the worst season of the five starters, and his ERA is only 4.55.  If Harden can get it together and the Cubs offense can get these guys to the playoffs, the pitching should (should) be in a position to take the club deep.

Cheekiness aside, the Chicago Cubs really are in first place in the NL Central division by happenstance at this point.  They are lucky to be there – their 52-45 record is the second worst among division leaders, and would be good for fourth place in the NL West and AL East – but they don’t have to relinquish the position.  If their top performers can perform the way they are supposed to and their second tier talent can continue to produce, they have a real honest shot at fending off the Astros, Cards and Brewers.

Chicago Cubs Notes:

- The Cajun Connection, Cubs infielders Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot, who played together at LSU, got so much press in the pre-season I wondered whether these guys had retained their own PR firm.  As a Cubs fan from Louisiana, I love these guys and wish them all the best, but they have struggled at the plate in 2009.  But, look at the bright-side – Aaron Miles, who came to camp to compete for a middle infielder spot, has a 30 OPS+, and an OPS of .500.

- Cubs pitchers are second in baseball in strikeouts, but third in baseball in walks.

- No Cubs pitcher with 25 or more innings pitched has given up over a hit per inning this season.  They are third in the NL in this category behind LA and San Francisco, which is remarkable – both the Dodgers and the Giants have outstanding pitching staffs and play in pitcher friendly parks, while the Cubs have a solid but not great staff and play in a hitter friendly park.  The Cubs defense has to be part of this (maybe I was too quick to dawg the Cajun Connection).

- The Cubs offense has the fourth most homeruns and the fourth lowest batting average in the National League.  Homeruns you can fake – all it takes is a small ballpark.  Batting average can’t be faked.  This is not a great hitting team.

- The Chicago Cubs are the sixth oldest team in baseball, behind the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Astros.  Here’s the thing – the Phillies have Matt Stairs (41) and Jamie Moyer (46), which throws off their average age.  The Red Sox have Tim Wakefield (42), John Smoltz (42), and Takashi Saito (39) tilting their age.  The Yankees have seven guys aged 35 or older, many of whom are future Hall of Famers, and the Astros have a host of elder-statesmen veterans.  What do the Cubs have?  Their oldest player is Chad Fox (38), and then the next oldest guy is 33.  This is just, across the board, an old team.

- Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle pitched a perfect game last week in which he struck out six batters.  This is destined to spark a debate amongst Chicagoans as to the most dominant pitching performance in Chicago Baseball History – Buehrle’s perfecto or Wood’s 20 strikeout one-hitter on May 6, 1998.  The only two base-runners in Wood’s game came on a hit and a hit batsman.  Ironically, a great play by DeWayne Wise saved Buehrle’s game, while a lousy play marred Wood’s game – a miscue by third baseman Kevin Orie which could (should, by some accounts) have been called an error.  For my part, I’ll take the guy against whom 20 of 27 batters couldn’t make contact with the ball.

Related posts:

1. As the Cubs Roll Into August…
2. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

It’s been 10 days since the All-Star break, the Mariners have been 5-3; 51-45 overall, 25-19 at home, and .500 on the road.  The momentum is good.  Since the All-Star break Felix Hernandez won his 50th game, becoming the 15th-youngest to reach that mark since 1919. The Mariners won the series against Detroit. Ryan Rowland-Smith returned to the line-up and on the funny side of things, Flo-Rida rewrote his song “Jump” with lyrics about Ichiro after hearing he used it as his at bat music.  Good Stuff.

How does the rest of the season look?  If Russell Branyan can keep it up, he could definitely be a key player in this positive momentum for a team that is 6.5 games behind. His 2 run-homer against Detroit was part of the stuff that just makes baseball fun to watch. Don Wakamatsu described it as ‘majestic’ – everyone reading this is now looking up and thinking of the most majestic play in baseball they have ever seen…

Who am I watching for the remainder of the season?  Obviously King Felix, Ichiro, Branyan, and Franklin Gutierrez.  If Guti can overcome his most recent injury (sustained while crashing into the scoreboard) and keep doing what he’s been doing – batting .292 and adding to his 12 HR’s and 42 RBI’s he might be destined to be the next Mariner’s Super Hero.

The future also seems to hold great things for Ryan Langerhans, the 29 year old Texas native.  Since his debut with the Mariners, he’s been playing well. In 18 games he’s had 57 at bats; 6 runs, 4 RBI’s, and 1 HR. He will definitely need a nickname if he keeps it up – Langerhans is much to long for fans to chant.

The contributions from Felix, Ichiro, and Branyan are what Mariner’s fans have come to expect based on their performance this year.   Guti is working on becoming that player that we can count on to perform game after game.  Langerhans is new and young with his entire career ahead of him, but if he continues this season with the momentum he has, the future is bright.

So, if the offense and defense can continue to show up and play together in the same game, it’s possible to make up the 6.5 game deficit. An appearance in the post-season isn’t out of reach, yet.

Related posts:

1. Mariners Griffey Present, Hernandez the Future
2. I still have hope for the Mariners
3. Reflections on the Mariners

Looking at the 2009 Rockies is a lot like looking at the 2008 Rockies. Only with a bit more urgency attached.

Urgency in that if these Rockies don’t get off to a solid start, Clint Hurdle may not be in charge for long.

This is Hurdle’s eighth season, and for the first time, he is managing in the last year of his contract. That, plus the fact that former Dodgers/Pirates skipper Jim Tracy is part of the coaching staff, should tell you all you need to know.

The problem for Hurdle is that urgency wasn’t necessarily felt in the front office this off-season. As you may have noticed, the Rockies traded their best player – Matt Holliday – and didn’t offer their All-Star closer – Brian Fuentes – enough money to keep him from leaving through free agency for the Los Angeles Angels.

Throw in the loss of Jeff Francis to shoulder surgery, and missing are three key performers in the Rockies’ surprising run to the 2007 NL pennant. Seems longer than 17 months ago, doesn’t it?

And other than the return package for Holliday – Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez (who will start the season in Triple-A) — improvement will have to come from within.

At least much more is expected from Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton, both of whom suffered through injury-interrupted 2008 seasons – and the Rockies’ offense showed it.

What had been the league-leading offense in terms of on-base percentage in 2007 turned into a just-above-average, fifth-best mark in 2008. But it took more than the wide swaths of time missed by Tulo (61 games) and Helton (79 games) for the offense to fall from grace.

Garrett Atkins had a relatively down year, Willy Taveras stole 68 bases but otherwise remained miscast in Coors Field, and the revolving-door second-base situation couldn’t match Kaz Matsui’s 2007 production.

So here’s what six weeks of spring training are telling us about the 2009 season:

The good news is Helton, after working his way in slowly, has been terrific at the plate, displaying much of his old power.

Seth Smith has convinced club officials that he’s going to hit enough – nothing near Holliday-esque, but enough – to play regularly in left field.

Chris Iannetta cemented his place among the game’s top catchers with a strong World Baseball Classic showing.

Ian Stewart is forcing Hurdle to figure out ways to work him into the lineup – left field, third base, even second base. But that means there will be no room for Jeff Baker, who likely will be traded.

And Dexter Fowler’s exciting combination of skills are making the idea of him opening the season in Colorado more of a possibility (although still not likely).

The tease is this: With Fowler leading off and playing center field, the Rockies vastly upgrade their defense and speed, and deepen the bench, with Ryan Spilborghs becoming a high-quality fourth outfielder.

The risk is exposing Fowler too soon, and then having to send him back to Triple-A if he struggles at the big-league level. But at some point very soon, you’re going to see the start of the Fowler era in Coors Field.

But here’s what’s not going right, and if you think it sounds familiar, you’re correct:

Jason Marquis is the No. 3 starter behind dependable ace Aaron Cook and budding star Ubaldo Jimenez, and the Angels lit up Marquis for 10 runs in three innings the other day.

Nobody has stepped up and grabbed the fourth and fifth spots. The Rockies are counting on Jorge De La Rosa continuing to show he finally has it figured out. But the spring results haven’t been great.

Greg Smith probably will get the other spot on the strength of allowing 169 hits in 190 innings with Oakland last season, but has been slowed by two bouts of the flu this spring.

Image via Wikipedia

And we’re still waiting for Franklin Morales (inconsistent), Jason Hirsh (injured again) and Greg Reynolds, who was sent back to minor-league camp early.

The loss of Taylor Buchholz, who emerged in a setup role last season, takes away a quality late-inning option – no matter how the closer role duel between Street and Manuel Corpas turns out. Buchholz (strained elbow ligament) is expected back in mid-May.

And the April schedule does Hurdle no favors, as the Rockies will play 11 of their first 14 games on the road.

At least there isn’t much expectation for a contending club here; and that could buy Hurdle a bit more time. Then again, another sub-.500 season isn’t exactly resume-building stuff for Hurdle or GM Dan O’Dowd, who also is in the final year of his contract, but apparently under less fire.

Projected Opening Day lineup: CF Ryan Spilborghs, LF Seth Smith, 1B Todd Helton, 3B Garrett Atkins, RF Brad Hawpe, SS Troy Tulowitzki, C Chris Iannetta, 2B Clint Barmes, P Aaron Cook

UPDATE:

The late-spring roster decisions went this way:

The fourth and fifth spots in the rotation went to Jorge De La Rosa and Franklin Morales, the latter of whom won out over Greg Smith, who is a bit behind schedule due to two spring bouts with the flu.

Dexter Fowler was kept on the Opening Day roster, and the assumption has to be that the 23-year-old will get regular at-bats. Veteran Scott Podsednik and Carlos Gonzalez, part of the Holliday trade, didn’t make the club.

Ian Stewart won a reserve spot, and at least for now, so did Jeff Baker — even though both play the same set of positions: first base, second base, third base and the corner-outfield spots. They do hit from opposite sides of the plate, and figure to be key pinch hitters.

Hard-throwing rookie Juan Morillo — out of options — will be part of the bullpen.

For more from Tony, please check him out at The Examiner and NBC Sports

Related posts:

1. Mariners Griffey Present, Hernandez the Future
2. Helton Reaches Career Milestone
3. Schmidt’s long road back ends with victory, tentative hope for future

Hi everyone, and greetings from the great white north (metaphorically speaking, in my case– I actually live in Washington DC).  I’m Hugo, and Rincewind and I (more on that later) run

If you forgot that Toronto has a major-league baseball team this offseason, you can be forgiven, since we’ve been in the news only as the team that sent A.J. Burnett over to his new digs in the Bronx.  It’s been strange, JP Ricciardi hasn’t even accused a player he wasn’t able to get of not liking baseball (although, let’s face it – whoever Riccardi’s new bosses are at Rogers Communications, they don’t seem to have much of an affection for the game themselves).

Yes, it’s true, the economy isn’t doing so well (Though you wouldn’t know from a look at the ledgers of Rogers Communications, which continues to post huge profits, at least last quarter.  People don’t seem to cut back on TV, internet, or cell phones as a first resort in tough economic times).  Anyway, it makes sense that baseball, and the Jays, aren’t immune from the sluggish economy.  But when you’re biggest offseason acquisition (thus far) is Matt Clement on a minor-league deal, a guy coming off major shoulder surgery and who hasn’t pitched in the majors since a disastrous 12-start stint in 2006, that’s not belt-tightening, it’s a hunger strike.

What is upsetting about the offseason to us Jays’ fans is that, if you look at it from the right way, the Jays really should’ve been spending this offseason.  If you look behind the win-loss record (86-76), you see a team that scored 714 runs and allowed only 610, good for a +104 run differential and a Pythagorean record of 93-69.  In fact, as luck is defined by deviation from expected record, the Jays were the unluckiest team in the league last season, and they still managed to win 86 games.  According to run differential, the Jays were the 4^th best team in all of baseball last year (behind the Sox, the Phillies, and the Cubs) and 1 run ahead of the AL East winning Tampa Bay Rays.  It wouldn’t have taken but a drop of luck, and the Jays would’ve been a 95-game winner, which would have tied them with the Red Sox for the wild card.

Behind a lights-out starting pitching staff consisting of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, a crazy-deep bullpen (the best in baseball) and an excellent defense, the Jays allowed, by far, the fewest runs of any team in the AL.  In fact, they allowed the fewest runs of any team in baseball.   Unfortunately for the 2008 Jays, they also scored the 4^th fewest runs in the AL, dragged down by horrible performance at DH and left-field, two offense-first lineup spots (well, one offense-first spot and one offense-only spot).

With a number of hitting-first types: Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley and, dare-I-say-it? Manny Ramirez on the free agent market, one would’ve thought that the Jays, who have not been afraid to spend over the last several years, would pounce on one of these hitters, tweak a few other things, and plan for the parade to roll down Yonge Street.   Some of these players are still on the market, but the Jays haven’t so much as squeaked about any of them, nor have they signed any pitchers, other than Matt Clement and fellow shoulder-casualty Mike Maroth, to fill the holes in the rotation left by A.J. Burnett, who left to don the accursed pinstripes, and Shaun Marcum, who, after a brilliant 2008, went under the knife in September for ligament replacement surgery.

That said, even though no big names have been brought in, there’s reason for Jays’ fans to be optimistic.  Other than Marcum and Burnett, all the significant contributors to the 2008 Jays are back, and none of the duds are.  Adam Lind and wunderkind Travis Snider are set to start their first full seasons in the bigs at the aforementioned DH and LF spots, and while the two lefties will doubtless undergo some growing pains, they are all but sure to better what their positional predecessors managed (Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench managed 71, 69, 68, 81 OPS+es, respectively, over 600 soul-crushing at-bats last season).   Aaron Hill, an exceptional fielder and good hitter, will be back manning the keystone after an admirable fill-in job by Joe Inglett.  Vernon Wells had a very good season in 2008  (124 OPS+) marred by a wrist he broke on a diving catch in center field.  And a rejuvenated Alex Rios hit like we Jays fans expect him to (.299/.336/.540) after the all-star break.

Image via Wikipedia

Yes, Marcum and Burnett will be missed in 2009, but the Jays return an incredible bullpenand the best pitcher in the AL (sorry C.C.) as well as a cast of young starters (Jesse Litsch, Casey Janssen, Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Dustin McGowan, who may be back by May) more than capable of filling the shoes of the dearly departed.  It has been a long, cold, and quiet winter, but I’m excited to see the kids, and I have a feeling 2009 looks a lot better for the Jays than many folks (particularly those in the Toronto media) think they will.  If you can’t get optimistic about your team in late January and early February, when baseball withdrawal kicks into high-gear, you’re not a baseball fan (well, or you root for the Pirates).

Hugo also writes for Bluebird Banter. Please follow the link provided to read his and Rincewind’s work there.

Related posts:

1. Blue Jays Reflections: Playing for Next Year?
2. June Reflections on the Blue Jays
3. Reflections on the Blue Jays