September General Overview:

September Record 13-15

Season Record 77-81 (with 4 games to go)

The Brewers came into September clearly outside of playoff contention. However, they did have a couple opportunities to impact the Wild Card chase as they had a couple of the front-runners on the schedule in September. In their first chance, they lost 2 of 3 to a Giants team that had legitimate playoff hopes at the time. In their second chance to play spoiler, they fared even worse. They got swept by a Rockies team that finds new ways to win on a daily basis. It was a disappointing but not surprising way to finish off what has been a disappointing season. A season which started very promising and even included about a solid month of being in first place turned into a disappointing season where the Brewers were battling (unsuccessfully) to at least get back to .500. With that in mind it’s time to hand out some bests and worsts for the month of September.

Bests And Worsts of September:

Best Hitter — Casey McGehee .337./394/.565

Casey McGehee ended his rookie year with a bang. He has strengthened his case for both the Rookie of the Year and to hold down third base for the Brewers for 2010 and beyond.

Best Pitcher – Trevor Hoffman 1-1 1.80 era 7/8 saves

Since Hoffman was handed this award last month, I tried the best I could to justify handing it to another pitcher. I almost gave this to Chris Narveson but considering he couldn’t make it out of the 6th the other night against the Rockies, I had to look elsewhere. Sure, Hoffman did have a blown save in September but he has been so dominant and so much better than the rest of the pitching staff that he gets the pitcher of the month award.

Worst Hitter — Craig Counsell .205/.279/.282

As recently as Tuesday, Jason Kendall was penciled in for this “award”. Overall, Kendall wasn’t great this month but he did just enough in the Colorado series to avoid this dubious distinction. That led me to look elsewhere, eventually leading to Craig Counsell. Counsell obviously isn’t known for his bat but he still needs to produce more offensively to justify the playing time he has gotten this year.

Worst Pitcher – Dave Bush 2-4  7.85 era

This was a disappointing end to a less than ideal season for David Bush. He just hasn’t been the same pitcher since being struck by a line drive in May and his struggles in September has been a microcosm for the 2009 season.

Best Game — September 6 (2-1 win over the Giants)

For this award, it was a toss up between this game and the win on the 26th over the Phillies. This game got the nod due to a better pitching performance. While the Brewers were out of contention this year, this game had a playoff feel to it. A strong pitching duel (between Braden Looper and Jonathan Sanchez), key defensive plays (Pablo Sandoval robbing the Brewers of a game winning hit in the 10th) and Most importantly, this game also involved the Brewers getting the last word. Prince Fielder capped this game by hitting a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th. To top it off, the Brewers followed up on the walk-off homer with the rest of the team greeting him at home plate and falling down like bowling pins when he stepped onto home plate.

Worst Game — September 7 (3-0 loss to the Cardinals)

How did the Brewers follow up this epic game? Well, they pretty much got steamrolled by Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals. Granted Carpenter was on his game but when the only thing separating your team from a no-hitter is a Jody Gerut double, it’s pretty hard to play any worse.

Since the baseball season is winding to a close I will add another set of awards to the normal monthlies: pleasant surprise/biggest disappointment.

Pleasant Surprise – Casey McGehee .304/.365/.507 128 OPS+

This call isn’t even close. McGehee was picked up off of waivers from the Cubs in the off-season. When the Brewers signed him it was more or less an afterthought. For the first couple months of the season, he was “that guy” that they let come off the bench for an at bat or two a week. However, with Rickie Weeks being lost for the season in May, McGehee got more opportunities to play and he made the most of it.

Watching Casey McGehee play has been one of the few bright spots in what has been a disappointing year. He’s had to deal with playing on a bad knee and having to split playing time with Craig Counsell and Mat Gamel. Still he gave it his all, hasn’t missed a beat and proven to be more than capable of hitting Major-League pitching.

Biggest Disappointment — Manny Parra 11-10 6.16 era 68 ERA+

I could have gone in many directions here since there were many others “worthy” of this distinction (Hall, Hardy, Looper, Suppan, Kendall, Bush, etc.), but Manny Parra trumped them all. After losing Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia after the 2008 season, the Brewers were counting on Yovani Gallardo and Parra to be the 1-2 pitchers in the rotation if the Brewers were to have any hopes of contention this year.

Gallardo did his part but Manny Parra was inconsistent for most of the season and downright terrible in the other parts (even by Brewers rotation standards). Instead of building on a decent 2008 season, Parra seemed to regress backwards. He fell off so deep that he ended up being sent back to Nashville for a while. While he showed some signs of life after coming back, the damage had already been done to his season.

What’s Next for Current Brewers Players?

With the 2009 season winding down and a return trip to the playoffs not happening, it is time to look ahead to what’s next heading into the 2010 season. The first step towards that is what’s going to happen to the players with expiring contracts. While it is too early to speculate who the Brewers will try to sign from other teams, we can look ahead to which Brewers players may or may not be moving on between now and April.

Mike Cameron .249/.343/.454 108 OPS+

Mike Cameron has held down center for the last couple seasons. He’s done what he has always done, hit around .250 with some power and defense mixed in. While he has his flaws, he still is one of the better center fielders in the league and is a better option than the reserve outfielders that the Brewers have (Jody Gerut, Frank Catalanotto). With Cameron I wouldn’t be too surprised regardless of whether he’s brought back or let go.

Braden Looper 13-7 5.10 82 ERA+

Looper does have a club option for 2010 that would pay him $6.5 million. Based on his performance this year, I’m not too crazy about Braden Looper coming back AND being paid more to do so. He’s managed to stay healthy and attain a good win-loss record (due primarily to strong run support). Still, his performance this year led a lot to be desired and he was still one of the poster children for the Brewers pitching struggles.

Jason Kendall .244/.333/.308 71 OPS+

Jason Kendall seems to be a good person, team mate and the pitchers seem to like him. However, on a team that usually needs to out-slug the other team to win, letting someone like Kendall start 130+ games a season isn’t the best idea. To put it another way, there are 86 National League players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. When you sort those 86 player by OPS+ Kendall ranks 84th. In other words, the Brewers are better off looking elsewhere for next year’s starting catcher job.

Granted, his backup Mike Rivera hasn’t hit much better (.227/.328/.345 79 OPS+), but with Rivera hitting there’s at least an outside chance that he can do something productively offensively. While Rivera isn’t starting material, Rivera is still an upgrade over Jason Kendall in case the Brewers can’t find another catcher through Free Agency.

Trevor Hoffman 2-2 1.76 era 238 ERA+

The Brewers NEED to bring back Hoffman. When the Brewers signed him for a reasonable price last winter, I knew it was a good move. I just didn’t realize it was a brilliant move. Hoffman has been a rock at the back of the Brewers bullpen. This is something that definitely hasn’t been taken for granted (this happens when the predecessors in this job include Dan Kolb, Derrick Turnbow, Eric Gagne and Solomon Torres). While it’s tough to say if he’ll be this dominant in 2010, Hoffman is still one of the elite closers in this league.

Craig Counsell .279/.350/.404 99 OPS+

Counsell has historically been known more for his defense and grittiness than his bat. Armed with an adjusted batting stance, he turned in one of his better years at the plate. It’s likely the Brewers will bring him back. Personally, I’m not too crazy about Counsell coming back as he’s unlikely to replicate these numbers. I don’t mind him coming off the bench occasionally but when he’s in a platoon with Casey McGehee, he’s probably getting too many at-bats. I would prefer to see the Brewers go in a different direction here (i.e. re-sign Felipe Lopez instead).

Felipe Lopez .318/.406/.449 126 OPS+

Lopez was acquired from the D-Backs in July and has held down the second base/lead-off spot ever since. He had a nice 4-hit game in his first Brewers appearance and he hasn’t stopped hitting since. There’s been nothing dominant about his hitting, but he has a knack for finding his way on base.

It’s tough to see where the Brewers would have room for him on the 2010 team (assuming Weeks is healthy) but I would rather see Lopez fill-in the starter/platoon infielder role that’s likely to go to Craig Counsell. He’s just as versatile defensively, younger, a better hitter and even has a little bit of pop in his bat.

When Dayton Moore was hired as general manager and David Glass decided it was okay to spend a little money, most of us were sure that the Royals were on the road back to respectability.

Bolstered by a better than it really was September, the Royals won more games in 2008 than they had since 2003 and finished out of last place for the first time since that magical 03 run, too.

There was legitimate thoughts of contending in 2009 from some and certainly expectations of finishing around .500 from most. A few of you sage commenters out there correctly projected that the Royals’ 2008 campaign was skewed by an 18-8 September and forecasted a three or four game decline. Did anyone expect the 2009 Kansas City Royals to be battling the Washington Nationals for the title of worst team in baseball?

Well, welcome to the last week in August, where the Royals are just three and one-half games out of having to negotiate with Bryce Harper next June.

This Royals team has managed to dig into rock bottom in spectacular fashion. They traded their best setup man, Ramon Ramirez, for Coco Crisp: who gave the team six good weeks and is now out until mid-season of 2010. They traded their next best setup man, Leo Nunez, for a designated hitter in Mike Jacobs who might not be better than a guy the team already had in AAA (Kila Kaaihue) and has all of SIX more home runs than the team’s lead off hitter.

This is an organization that pinned its hopes on a second year shortstop in Mike Aviles, who, even before being injured, was a prime candidate for at least some regression. The backup plan? Why Tony Pena Jr., of course!

When Aviles did finally go down (and drew the ire of the organization for hiding his injury and trying to play through it – hell, if Tony Pena Jr. was MY backup, I’d figure I needed to play at all costs, too) the organization panicked into trading an underachieving yet high on potential pitching prospect for an overpaid, underranged shortstop long on reputation and short on production.

Along the way, the Royals have coddled their star closer to the point of making him irrelevant (although it should be noted that Trey Hillman has at last opted to salvage a few games by going outside the box and using Joakim Soria for multiple two inning saves) and overused their staff leader, Gil Meche, to the point that he is a shell of the pitcher he had been the previous two seasons.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

The fall back to baseball’s laughingstock has included posting a sub-five hundred record in games started by the league’s best pitcher (Zack Greinke), sending down third baseman Alex Gordon just last week after rushing him through his rehab from injury (they had 30 days to play him in the minors and instead opted to bring him back two weeks early) and carrying 13 pitchers and three catchers on their 25 man roster.

This past weekend, a sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, a team with no more money than the Royals who happened to draft and develop the heart of their batting order, we saw two different rightfielders (Josh Anderson and Willie Bloomquist) misplay the team out of a victory and multiple bullpen meltdowns highlighted by Kyle Farnsworth’s actual incernation on the mound.

All the while, this organization seems to be sailing serenely forward as if all is going according to plan. They have used just 17 pitchers this season: none of them rookies, four of them (Jamey Wright, Horacio Ramirez, Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen) vagabond veterans. In fact, not one player has made his major league debut for the Royals this season.

This is an organization that seems to almost be afraid to ‘find out’ about players. They don’t want to play speedy Josh Anderson in centerfield because ‘Kaufmann Stadium has a lot of area to cover’. They don’t want to give Brayan Pena three months to prove or disprove if he is a starting catcher because they want Miguel Olivo’s ‘slug’ in the lineup. A call up of Kila Kaaihue or Jordan Parraz (before he got hurt…again) would have necessitated exposing one of the teams EIGHT relievers to waivers. GASP! The horror!

Submarining reliever Chris Hayes or fireballing reliever Carlos Rosa or Chris Nicoll, Jason Godin, Victor Marte or even Brandon Duckworth or Lenny DiNardo, might help this wretched assembly of ineffectiveness that Kansas City calls a bullpen. Instead, the Royals stay with the same group. I’m sure if Doug Waechter had not been injured all would have been solved.

Trust me, I tried to ‘trust the process’. I thought Ramirez for Crisp was a reasonable gamble and even was not abhorred by the Nunez for Jacbos deal. I was not against Gil Meche throwing 132 pitches – remember the last batter was a 10 pitch plate appearance – although the idea of tossing him 121 pitches after he claimed of a dead arm on July 1st remains a criminal offense. I believed in Juan Cruz and thought he and Ron Mahay would be a capable setup tandem

Well, I was wrong, but I’m willing to admit that. By mid-June, I was thinking about changes that could be made to improve this team: if not for 2009, at least for 2010. It is easy for me to admit mistakes, given that my quotes don’t get published in the newspaper and I don’t have to sign the checks for said mistakes. I get that it is hard, maybe counterproductive, for Dayton Moore and crew to say ‘hey, we screwed up, we’ll have to start over, again’.

My concern, however, is that they truly don’t believe they have done anything wrong: that, if not for injuries, the Royals would be in contention. That is the only reasoning I can see for this organization’s complete lack of substantial movement, outside of acquiring Betancourt, as the season crumbled around them.

Die hard Royals fans know baseball and they continue to show up season after season. They follow the draft with great anticipation and many can name thirty or more of the players in the minor leagues. They care, period.

The casual fans may have rightfully packed it in. The ones that remain, going to games, devouring every morsel of Royals’ coverage, writing and commenting on blogs and forums: they get it. They know baseball, good and bad, and they know when they are being laughed at.

Thank you, Dayton Moore, David Glass and Trey Hillman, you have led us back…all the way to 2004. I bet Ruben Mateo and Abraham Nunez are waiting by the phone right now.

In a month in which Roy Halladay’s name occupied the airwaves 24/7, and in which Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, and Jarrod Washburn were all traded to contenders, the Cubs came away from the trading deadline with . . . Tom Gorzelanny? A guy who was solid but not great for the Pirates in 2007, and split time in 2008 and 2009 with the Pirates’ Triple-A club. Are we supposed to believe that the Cubs hope to win the NL Central with a guy who wasn’t good enough to break the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation?

The funny part is that the Cubs actually gave up a guy in Kevin Hart who has had some success at the major league level in 2009.

Who knows – perhaps Gorzelanny is a good pitcher from a bad team who will improve mightily on a winning team like the Cubs. I don’t think that will be the case, but who knows? On the bright side, Gorzelanny has dominated Triple-A since 2006, and he is a lefty where Hart was a righty.

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The other big move made by the Cubs was the acquisition of Toronto Blue Jays cast-off B.J. Ryan, who despite being owed more than $15 million on his contract was released in June. But who knows, this could work out great as well. Thirty-three year old relievers with bad mechanics two-and-a-half years removed from Tommy John surgery often work out great, right?

Chicago Cubs apologists will be quick to point out that the Cubs have been hamstrung by the fact that their parent, the Tribune Company, is currently in bankruptcy proceedings. This may be. Nevertheless, it is questionable not only whether the moves the Cubs are making will improve the team, but whether the moves may actually be making the team worse. It remains to be seen.

The good news for the Cubs is that July was their hottest month of the season so far. During the past month the Cubs won 18 of 27 games, including 6 out of 8 on the road. The bad news is that the Cubs played 19 of their 27 games at home in July, where they are a better team that they are on the road. In August, the Cubs play 16 out of 29 games on the road, and will have only 2 days off. Plus, while the Cubs benefited from a weak schedule in July, in August they face off against Florida, Colorado, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and the Mets. It will be a grueling month.

On the other hand, if a month from now the Cubs are still within 2 games of first place in the NL Central, then they may be primed to make another move or two before the August 31st deadline, whereas should they slip in the standings they’ll know that such a move would be futile. That is probably a good position to be in.

Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir Update

Wanna hear something weird? Jake Fox currently has a 141 OPS+ and a .955 OPS, but he has performed significantly better on the road than he has at Wrigley Field, to the tune of .275/.328/.529/.857 at home and .339/.365/.679/1.044 on the road. Anyone who can put up those numbers on the road playing for any team is likely the real deal. Though it is a relatively small sample size, this is very good news for what has been one of the few bright spots in the Cubs’ lineup in 2009.

Humorously (or should I say, humorlessly), Fox has seen his playing time limited of late for the preposterous reason that, with Geovanny Soto on the DL, Fox is the team’s emergency catcher and must be kept available in case Koyie Hill gets injured. Any chance we can make Milton Bradley the emergency catcher?

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While Jake Fox has been bringing it for the Cubs on the road, Hoffpauir has not. He is solid at home, with an .887 OPS and a .278 batting average, but on the road he is awful, to the tune of .575 and .204. Ouch. Plus, he has 3 walks and 29 strikeouts on the road. Ooof.

I am beginning to wonder about the Cubs farm system and its ability to produce major league hitters. Seriously, when was the last time a Cubs prospect became a bona fide major league hitter? Let’s count backwards the number of Cubs major league prospects who failed to pan out – Micah Hoffpauir (at least for now), Geovanny Soto (one year does not out a pan), Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Corey Patterson, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Jason DuBois, Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill, Augue Ojeda, Roosevelt Brown, Kevin Orie, Gary Matthews, Jr., Julio Zuleta, Jason Smith, Brant Brown, Chad Meyers, Robin Jennings, Jose Nieves, Brooks Kieschnick, Doug Glanville, Kevin Roberson, Mike Hubbard, Rey Sanchez, Derrick May, Rick Wilkins, Doug Dascenzo, Hector Villaneuva, Gary Scott, Alex Arias, Dwight Smith, Jerome Walton, Damon Berryhill, Greg Smith, Rick Wrona, Joe Girardi, Earl Cunningham, Ty Griffin, Mark Grace.

Okay, I wasn’t expecting that – I figured that the list would be long, but I did not expect to have to go all the way back to Mark Grace. Is that it? Has it been 20 years since the Cubs developed a star major league hitter? Amazingly, the Cubs drafted Mark Grace in 1985, the same year they drafted Rafael Palmeiro. So it has been almost 25 years since the Cubs drafted and developed a star major league hitter. How is that possible? Something is seriously wrong!

I guess, theoretically, the Cubs could take credit for developing Sammy Sosa. But Sosa was signed by the Rangers and traded to the White Sox before he was traded to the Cubs as a 23 year old, so it would be hard for them to claim credit for his development when he was in baseball for six years before joining the Cubs.

Just to complete the exercise, let’s go through Major League Baseball and take a look at a random sampling of homegrown star hitters from each franchise:

Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Scott Rolen, Jimmy Rollins

New York Mets: David Wright, Jose Reyes

Florida Marlins: Miguel Cabrera

Washington Nationals: Vlad Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, Jose Vidro

Atlanta Braves: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal, Brian McCann

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols,

Houston Astros: Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio

Pittsburgh Pirates: Aramis Ramirez

Cincinnati Reds: Adam Dunn

Milwaukee Brewers: Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney

Arizona Diamondbacks: Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton

Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitski, Matt Holliday

San Diego Padres: Jason Bay

San Francisco Giants: Pedro Feliz, Pablo Sandoval

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, Jorge Posada

Boston Red Sox: Jeff Bagwell, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury

Tampa Bay Rays: Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Aubrey Huff, Evan Longoria

Toronto Blue Jays: Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells

Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis

Chicago White Sox: Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko

Detroit Tigers: Curtis Granderson,

Minnesota Twins: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer,

Cleveland Indians: Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Brian Giles, Richie Sexson

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Joe Randa

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Darin Erstad, Jim Edmonds, Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon, Garrett Anderson

Texas Rangers: Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Travis Hafner

Seattle Mariners: Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez, Raul Ibanez

Gee whiz. It is one thing to say it has been a long time since the Cubs developed a good major league hitter, but taking even a cursory glance at what all the other teams have done in recent years reveals just what a feat this has been. Do the Cubs simply have the worst farm system in baseball over the last 20 years? It looks like only the Giants and Pirates systems have done even close to as bad of a job.

This is a shocking development.

Indeed, when one looks at recent Chicago Cubs stars, it is a list of hitters acquired from other teams almost exclusively. Consider: Derrek Lee (acquired from the Marlins), Aramis Ramirez (Pirates), Sammy Sosa (White Sox), Juan Pierre (Marlins), Alex Gonzalez (Blue Jays), Andre Dawson (Expos), and Ryne Sandberg (Phillies).
I’ll tell you what this tells me – if the Cubs have star offensive prospects in their minor league system and they think they can use them to acquire established hitters or pitching help, they should do so. And whether or not they win the division in 2009 may depend on whether or not they heed history’s advice.

When you take a peek at the poor offensive statistics that the Tigers have posted as a team this year, it would easy to have the knee-jerk reaction to want to see Legendary Lloyd given his walking papers.  Maybe a new voice is needed to wake these guys up.  But when Kurt looked deeper at the numbers of a couple of players, what he found was that McClendon role in the steady decline of the Tigers’ offense was minimal at best.

McClendon took over as the hitting coach in 2007, after serving as bench coach the year prior.  2007 saw career years from Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco and the Tigers finished second in the AL in runs scored at 5.87 per game.

Even a quick glace at the three players listed above this season will show a significant drop in production this season.  Remember though, Ordonez and Polanco are both on the wrong side of their primes, as they were back in ‘07, so a decreased level of performance should certainly have been expected.

As for Granderson, what we may be seeing is the evolution of him as a hitter.  Two seasons ago, Granderson was still a gap hitter focused on line drives and using his speed to gain extra bases.  This season, Granderson has hit home runs (and fly balls) at a significantly higher rate, thus leading to a lower batting average and OBP.  Kurt also points out that his BABIP is down from years past, which will happen as fly ball rates increase, but also illustrates that bad luck is playing a role.

Granderson was certainly never a prototypical lead-off hitter, and he appears more suited now to hit in the middle of the order.  But again, that is something that had always been projected to happen as he matured.

If the Tigers have been guilty of anything as it pertains to offense this season, it was that they came into this season relying too much on older hitters to stay healthy and maintain production levels they had in the past.  In the post-Steroid Era, it is much more likely that older players will see drops in production earlier and more severely than they had over the past 12 to 15 years.  The days of outfielders staying healthy and continuing to mash into their late 30’s are very simply behind us.

As was the case with the overwhelming majority of players prior to the steroid explosion of the 90’s, hitters today will see sharp declines at an earlier age.  Ordonez, now 35, has been victimized by declining bat speed that really began last season, but has taken a sharp down-turn this year.  There is very little chance he will be able to regain that bat speed at any point as he gets older.

Similarly, Polanco and Carlos Guillen have a lot of games on their bodies, and while much of Polanco’s struggles can be attributed to bad luck, Guillen’s injuries are something that are likely to continue.  Again, when you enter the season relying on thirty-somethings to carry the load, you run the very real risk of having to then rely on AAA players to pick up slack that they frankly are not yet capable of doing.

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As far as McClendon is concerned, he has done a phenomenal job getting Brandon Inge to finally take instruction, and the results have been there.  Inge has been one of the very few bright spots on this team, and without his production, the Tigers would very likely be looking up from third place.

Through his tutelage, McClendon has also succeeded in getting solid production from hitters like Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn, and Adam Everett, while still not a major threat with the bat, is having his best offensive season is recent memory.

The problem with this team’s offense is absolutely not the hitting coach, it is in fact two-fold.  The lack of quality players still in their prime is the biggest issue.  Granderson is evolving into the hitter he likely will be throughout the next decade, and Miguel Cabrera continues to assault opposing pitchers, but nearly everyone else is either on the down side of their careers or not yet to their prime.

Coupled with that, the Tigers rank near the bottom in the AL with a .327 OBP and also have grounded into more double plays than any other AL club.  So when they do get runners on base, frequently those runners are eliminated via the double play.

The Tigers have actually stranded fewer runners than any AL team.  So part of the issues lie simply in hitters being too aggressive and not waiting for a quality pitch to hit.  It is difficult to teach pitch recognition, and that has been an organization problem for decades.

The early part of the month was dominated, in Cardinal talk, by the MLB All-Star Game, which was held in Busch Stadium on July 14.  All the hype, all the hoopla, all the surrounding events cast their shadow on a team that came into the break in first place in the NL Central, 2.5 games ahead of their nearest competitor.  St. Louis won 8 of their 12 games before the break and looked to be riding high, even as the offense continued to sputter.

John Mozeliak was maneuvering behind the scenes, however, and on July 22, after a day of swirling comments and controversy, he swapped Chris Duncan and either a player to be named later or cash to the Boston Red Sox for Julio Lugo.  The controversy came when it was reported early that day at Viva El Birdos, one of the top Cardinal blogs, that the deal had been nixed due to threats from Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan.  Chris Duncan was then demoted to Memphis, a move some saw as a compromise between the GM and field manager, before the trade was completed.  While official sources have continued to deny that LaRussa and Duncan played any role in the delay of the trade, indicating instead it was due to haggling out financial issues, Dave Duncan has come out and publically indicated his displeasure.

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All of that was quickly left behind, though, two days later, when Mozeliak sent three prospects, including Brett Wallace, the crown jewel of the farm system, to Oakland for Matt Holliday and cash.  Holliday had been coveted by LaRussa and Cardinal management for a long while, as they were continually linked to him in the winter when Colorado was shopping him.  Fans bewailed the cost involved in this deal, especially with no extension as part of the agreement, but agreed that the boost in offense would be a welcome sight.

Lugo and Holliday, coupled with the return of June trade acquisition Mark DeRosa from the disabled list, have given the Cards the offense that they have been searching for since a promising April decended into a scuffling May and June, with the pitching staff the only reason the Cards were afloat.  From Friday, July 24, when all of them showed up in the same lineup, through Wednesday, July 29, the offense has put up 32 runs against top teams Philadelphia and Los Angeles.  They have already rallied from a 3-run deficit, something they had only done three times prior to these moves.  While the offense has tapered off some since then, scoring only 7 runs in a weekend set against the Astros, it awaits only the stirring of Albert Pujols, mired in one of his rare slumps, to get going again.

If the offense is what will push the Cardinals, who now sit just a half-game ahead of the Cubs for the NL Central lead as they reach their first off day in August, into October, it is likely to be the pitching that keeps them there.  Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have continued to be the aces people expected out of them and Joel Pineiro continues to not be what people expected out of him.  Kyle Lohse returned from the disabled list and has shown some rust, but also the ability to stay in games.  Four of the five rotation slots usually give the Cardinals a good chance to win, especially with the revamped hitting attack.

Then there is Todd Wellemeyer.  Wellemeyer continued to struggle in July, with one good game early followed by numerous starts where he gave up as many runs as innings pitched.  With the changes in the offense, the Cardinals could not keep conceding every fifth game and so, earlier this week, the word came that Mitchell Boggs will replace Wellemeyer in the rotation for a while, with Wellemeyer moving on to the bullpen.

The Cardinals have proven that they are in “win now” mode and have put together a team that has a good chance of doing that.  The All-Star Summer just might turn into a Red October.

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a precarious situation. A team that was built from the inside with three-fourths of an infield (Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy), a pair of slugging corner outfielders (Ryan Braun, Corey Hart) and an ace in the making (Yovani Gallardo), is now being looked at as thin when it comes to minor league prospects. With Dave Bush on the DL, Jeff Suppan suffering an oblique injury that threatens his next start and the rest of the staff being either inconsistent or inexperienced at best, the Brewers need help and may not have the tools to get something done.

Here’s what reporter Jay Jaffe had to say about the Brewers at the trade deadline:

“One reason the Brewers might be standing pat is that their prospects are generating very little interest. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is seen as untouchable, and while sources indicate that there might be some interest in dealing for Mat Gamel, not only does Milwaukee not really have a place for him, his defensive limitations have him pegged by scouts as an AL-only type of player. Beyond that, the system has taken a bit of a step backwards, and they simply don’t have the chips on the table to pull off a big deal.” – Jay Jaffe

That is not what Brewers fans want to hear. Especially the two dopes I sat behind at a Brewers-Cubs game a couple of months ago that made sure to high five after every Brewer accomplishment and exclaim condescendingly, “How did we get that guy? Oh yeah, drafted him!” Fantastic.

Well here it is, your “drafted” team, dropping two in a row to the Nationals, at home. I think they forgot to include pitching in that scouting process, and it’s starting to show.

Last season the Brewers grabbed CC Sabathia, the prize of the deadline. It payed off immensely. CC single handedly carried their team into the playoffs. What they gave up was Zach Jackson and minor leaguers Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley and Rob Bryson. Not bad. LaPorta is hitting well in Columbus but his defense remains questionable at best. Brantley is well liked by scouts, who think he could be a “Kenny Lofton-type producer.” Jackson, now at Columbus, was hit hard in three appearances this season. All-in-all it looks like it served Milwaukee’s purposes well.

Now they are left with Alcides Escobar and Matt Gamel as their top two prospects, and it seems they are untouchable. Without the willingness to deal the “big chips” the Brewers won’t be able to pull off a deal good enough to save this season.

So what can they do?

They are now two games below .500 and they trail the division leading Cardinals by 4.5 games. They can at best only split this 4 game series with the Nationals, and they are about to head out on the road for 9 games, 6 of those out west (3 with LA). The schedule in August looks to be pretty soft, so maybe there is some time to make it up there. But…you know the phrase, “if you can’t spot the sucker at the table…”. Well, the more you look at the schedule and proclaim, “it gets easier in ____”, the more you start to forget that others are looking at their schedule and saying the same when they see your team coming. It was thought by many that this team would be an 80-85 win club. Each day it’s looking more and more likely that they will finish right around that number.

Despite all my nay-saying and doom-daying, the Chicago Cubs woke up on July 27th and found themselves in first place in the NL Central.  Outside of any performance by the Cubs, here are five reasons which this has happened:

5.         The St. Louis Cardinals have no hitting. A month into the season, the Cardinals looked to have five legitimate, major-league-starter caliber outfielders.  I even joked that maybe one of them could play first base.  Now the Cardinals are trying to give these guys away (literally – they just traded away Chris Duncan, the son of their own pitching coach).  The Cardinals have Albert Pujols and not much else on offense, though Ryan Ludwick is coming around, and it has undermined their pitching staff.  Despite having three dynamite starters, the Cards staff’s won-loss percentage does not reflect their dominance.

4.         The Milwaukee Brewers have no pitching. The Brewers have discovered this season that you can have two of the premier hitters in baseball (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder), some talented support, and one of the greatest closers in baseball history in a renaissance season, and it won’t do anything to cover the sin of a bad rotation.  After Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have four below-average pitchers in Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush (as much as it pains me to say that), Braden Looper, and Manny Parra.  If you don’t have starters, you aren’t in the conversation.

3.         The Cincinnati Reds have no coaching. Dusty Baker has taken a lot of criticism for a lot of things, but none so prescient as that leveled by Larry Dobrow of cbssportsline.com last year when, referring to Baker’s infatuation with Corey Patterson, he noted that Baker cannot accept the fact that speedy defensive minded centerfielders are not always the best leadoff men.  Baker has made this point critically obvious in 2009, as he has refused to notice that Willy Taveras is a terrible leadoff hitter.  To be fair, Baker doesn’t have a lot of options with this lineup period, but he has made the least of the situation.  And frankly, everything else falls in from there.

2.         The Houston Astros have no Lance. Or at least haven’t had Lance Berkman on track so far this season.  But that seems to be changing – Lance’s OPS has been over 1.000 in each of the last two months, and his OBP is over .500 for July.  The Astros lineup revolves around this guy, so when he is off, they are off.  Now that he is back, could the Astros be making a run?

1.         The Pittsburgh Pirates have no chance. Economists have a term called stagflation, in which there is high inflation without economic growth.  In theory, this is worse than a recession or inflation, and can be much more difficult to break out of than either of the alternatives.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a similar situation – they aren’t contenders, which makes them sellers approaching the trade deadline, but they also don’t have enough talent to bring in top name prospects from contending teams.  So they are stuck.

It would appear, thus far, if my theory is correct, that the Cubs are in first place in the NL Central purely based upon the failings of the other teams in the division.  To a certain extent this is correct.  The Brewers, Astros and Cardinals are all either underachieving compared to the production of their players, or underperforming compared to the talent level of their teams.  And Chicago has been the beneficiary.

Nevertheless, some credit must be given to the Cubs.   Credit must start with Derrek Lee, whom I have been deriding all of this season and most of last season.  Lee has stepped up his production dramatically in 2009, has already matched last year’s homerun total, and is hitting into way fewer double plays.  But lest we get excited, he is still a home-field hero – he has a .757 road OPS and 15 of his 20 homeruns have come at home.  He is better, but let’s not go celebrating to vehemently.

Aramis Ramirez also appears to be ready to contribute again, after an extended stint on the disabled list.  He is hitting over .300 with an OPS over .900 in July, and will be a crucial factor in the second half.

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The real story of the Chicago Cubs fall from grace in 2009 has been the horrendous play of Alfonso Soriano and Geovanny Soto.  For Soto’s part, he looked like he was starting to turn things around before getting hurt earlier this month.  He is a young guy and you might expect inconsistency.  But for Soriano, the dropoff has been stunningly inexplicable.  Soriano is the type of player that playoff teams have to be able to count on, a guy who can be penciled in for a certain level of performance, and he simply has not given it in 2009.  Despite a recent return to form (.342/.383/.553/.935 in the month of July), Soriano is still on pace for the worst season of his career.  Forget Derrek Lee – if the Cubs are going to the playoffs, Soriano has to be one of the top 15 outfielders in the National League.

Complain as we may about the bewilderingly inconsistent Cubs’ offense, the pitching staff is quietly having a good season.  The encouraging news is that the Cubs have been led thus far by Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano.  Rich Harden is actually having the worst season of the five starters, and his ERA is only 4.55.  If Harden can get it together and the Cubs offense can get these guys to the playoffs, the pitching should (should) be in a position to take the club deep.

Cheekiness aside, the Chicago Cubs really are in first place in the NL Central division by happenstance at this point.  They are lucky to be there – their 52-45 record is the second worst among division leaders, and would be good for fourth place in the NL West and AL East – but they don’t have to relinquish the position.  If their top performers can perform the way they are supposed to and their second tier talent can continue to produce, they have a real honest shot at fending off the Astros, Cards and Brewers.

Chicago Cubs Notes:

- The Cajun Connection, Cubs infielders Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot, who played together at LSU, got so much press in the pre-season I wondered whether these guys had retained their own PR firm.  As a Cubs fan from Louisiana, I love these guys and wish them all the best, but they have struggled at the plate in 2009.  But, look at the bright-side – Aaron Miles, who came to camp to compete for a middle infielder spot, has a 30 OPS+, and an OPS of .500.

- Cubs pitchers are second in baseball in strikeouts, but third in baseball in walks.

- No Cubs pitcher with 25 or more innings pitched has given up over a hit per inning this season.  They are third in the NL in this category behind LA and San Francisco, which is remarkable – both the Dodgers and the Giants have outstanding pitching staffs and play in pitcher friendly parks, while the Cubs have a solid but not great staff and play in a hitter friendly park.  The Cubs defense has to be part of this (maybe I was too quick to dawg the Cajun Connection).

- The Cubs offense has the fourth most homeruns and the fourth lowest batting average in the National League.  Homeruns you can fake – all it takes is a small ballpark.  Batting average can’t be faked.  This is not a great hitting team.

- The Chicago Cubs are the sixth oldest team in baseball, behind the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Astros.  Here’s the thing – the Phillies have Matt Stairs (41) and Jamie Moyer (46), which throws off their average age.  The Red Sox have Tim Wakefield (42), John Smoltz (42), and Takashi Saito (39) tilting their age.  The Yankees have seven guys aged 35 or older, many of whom are future Hall of Famers, and the Astros have a host of elder-statesmen veterans.  What do the Cubs have?  Their oldest player is Chad Fox (38), and then the next oldest guy is 33.  This is just, across the board, an old team.

- Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle pitched a perfect game last week in which he struck out six batters.  This is destined to spark a debate amongst Chicagoans as to the most dominant pitching performance in Chicago Baseball History – Buehrle’s perfecto or Wood’s 20 strikeout one-hitter on May 6, 1998.  The only two base-runners in Wood’s game came on a hit and a hit batsman.  Ironically, a great play by DeWayne Wise saved Buehrle’s game, while a lousy play marred Wood’s game – a miscue by third baseman Kevin Orie which could (should, by some accounts) have been called an error.  For my part, I’ll take the guy against whom 20 of 27 batters couldn’t make contact with the ball.

There were once high hopes for the Kansas City Royals, but no longer.   While the problems plaguing the Royals began even as they raced out of the 2009 starting gate to an 18-11 record and three game Central Division lead, the last thirty days provide a perfect illustration of the state of this franchise.

Since June 25th, Kansas City has won just eight out of twenty-six games.   Along the way, they have:

• Scored 89 runs, 7 less than the next lowest scoring American League team and 90 less than the Angels, who lead the lead over that period of time
• Hit just 18 home runs, 3 less than the Orioles, 4 less than the A’s and 14 fewer than the league leading Tigers
• Struck out 185 times, fifth worst in the league
• Walked only 60 times – dead last by 8
• Compiled a 4.82 earned run average – 12th in the American League
• Walked 99 opposing batters – only the Blue Jays have issued more free passes
• Thrown 15 wild pitches – most in the American League and more than the Red Sox, Twins, Tigers and Orioles combined
• Given up 33 home runs – second only to the Angels in most allowed
• Blown 6 saves – only Detroit has been worse
• The bullpen, excluding closer Joakim Soria, has allowed 44 earned runs and 44 walks in 61 innings of work

In addition to the above, over the course of the entire season, the Royals have committed more errors (71) than every other AL team except Seattle and given that Kansas City acquired Mariners’ shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt just prior to the All-Star break, they may well be in position to change that ranking.

Not to worry about base running, either.   Using Bill James’ plus/minus base running evaluation, Kansas City is the worst team in baseball at running the bases…..by a large margin.

Simply put, the Kansas City Royals are a bad baseball team at this point in time.  The question becomes, can this be fixed?  The answer, sadly, is probably ‘no’.

Even as recently as last month, I thought the Royals could at least be respectable if David DeJesus returned to form and Joakim Soria got healthy.  Well, DeJesus has gone .314/.402/.431 over the past thirty days and overall team improvement has not come. Even with Mark Teahen posting a thirty day OPS of .850 and Billy Butler one of .876, the Royals offense has been anemic.

Joakim Soria has indeed returned and allowed just two runs and eight hits over 11 innings of work while striking out sixteen batters.  Yet he has appeared in only eleven games, three of those blowout losses.   In fact, manager Trey Hillman did not use Soria even once in a recent three game set against Tampa Bay in which the Royals’ bullpen blew eighth inning leads in all three contests.

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How bad is it in Kansas City?  Ask the guys in the starting rotation. Zack Greinke has a 2.43 ERA over his last five starts, but only two wins.   Brian Bannister has a respectable 3.52 ERA over his last six starts, but only a 1-3 record to show for it.   While Luke Hochevar has stepped up to become a quality middle of the rotation guy, and rotation stalwart Gil Meche missed his first start in two and one-half seasons last week.

That paints a bleak picture for the Royals that might lead many to believe the Royals will be big sellers on the trade market.  Yet, Royals’ GM Dayton Moore seems content to ‘stay the course’ and ‘trust the process’, believing that injuries and bad luck have had more to due with Kansas City’s decline than the actual roster construction.

While deals may yet be made, the truth is that the Royals will not trade Greinke, Meche or Soria and place a much higher value on Alex Gordon and Billy Butler than the other 29 teams do.   As such, the only trading chips of value left are DeJesus, Teahen, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar – all four are believed to be part of the core group of players that the Royals believe can lead them to contention in the future.

All indications out of Kansas City point towards few, if any, deadline deals and likely nothing of an earth-shaking variety.   The Royals believe they are on the right track.   The numbers seem to say otherwise.

Mark Buehrle led the White Sox to victory in grand fashion today, by tossing a perfect game, and his second career no-hitter.  His first came on April 18th, 2007, also at U.S. Comiscular Field.  This is only the 18th perfect game in MLB history, Randy Johnson being the last to do so in 2004. The magnificent performance improved Buehrle’s record to 11-3 and lowered his ERA to 3.28 on the year, and he could be on his way to his best season yet.

Editor’s Note: But don’t just take our word for it, good friend of Baseball Reflections.com (and our former White Sox writer) The Zoner was at the game! Check out his reaction HERE!