While both National League Divisional Series will be going to a decisive Game 5 tonight, the Tigers and Rangers have each earned a berth to their league’s Championship Series. We’ll take a look at how these two teams match up to try to determine which club will represent the AL in the World Series.

Offense

Each of these clubs featured one of the more prolific offenses in the AL. The Rangers scored the third most runs of any AL team over the course of the season, while the Tigers scored the fourth most. However, the gap between them is larger than that statistic might indicate. The Rangers were the only team that was able to keep up with the big-money clubs in New York and Boston, as their 855 runs were only 20 behind the league-leading Sox. After the Rangers, there’s a large gap, as the Tigers scored 787 runs to finish fourth in the league. Advanced statistics suggest the gap between the teams’ offenses is a little smaller, as the Rangers’ wRC+ of 113 outpaced the Tigers by only 4%.

The Rangers’ offense got big production from some surprising places this year, while several of the players who carried the team to last season’s World Series have taken a step back. The team’s leader in offensive value was catcher Mike Napoli. Napoli spent 2010 splitting time behind the plate in Anaheim with Jeff Mathis. This offseason, Napoli momentarily went to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells, although the deal was more about losing Wells’ massive contract and less about actually acquiring Napoli from the Jays’ perspective. Napoli was sent packing once again almost immediately, this time in exchange for closer Frank Francisco. Napoli has taken advantage of his new opportunity in Texas, putting up a 5.6 WAR in only 113 games through an impressive 178 wRC+. Napoli hit 30 home runs in 432 plate appearances during the regular season. The next lowest PA total for a 30-homer hitter was 525, nearly 100 chances more than Napoli. So, if you picked Napoli to lead the AL in slugging this year, well… I don’t believe you.

I discussed Ian Kinsler in my AL MVP post, but he deserves another mention, as he’s been incredibly valuable on both sides of the ball and had the most prolific offensive year of his career by a long shot. His 7.7 WAR was the best mark on the club. Adrian Beltre’s 5.7 WAR led the team’s position players other than Kinsler, and his 134 wRC+ was second only to Napoli. In his first season in Texas, Beltre earned the first installment of his big multiyear deal signed last offseason and then some, putting up big offensive numbers and playing the premium defense at the hot corner we’ve come to expect from him. It’s rare that 4.2 WAR is considered a letdown, but Josh Hamilton produced less than half as much this season as his MVP campaign in 2010. While his numbers may not make him an MVP candidate again this year, he’s certainly a dangerous hitter. After a season of unrest between Michael Young and his front office that ended with him requesting a trade, Young gave the Rangers some serious reasons to retain him. Young gave the team positional flexibility and another big bat in their deep, potent lineup. The Rangers were the only team in baseball with five players who produced 20 or more runs above average on offense, and that’s not even counting Nelson Cruz, who had a big down year after a breakout 2010.

While the Rangers do have a better lineup, the Tigers aren’t exactly slouches. Led by Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have a number of big bats in the middle of their lineup. Alex Avila’s breakout season was interrupted by a deep slump down the stretch and during the divisional series. The Tigers will have to hope he can bounce back during this series and continue to cement himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. Victor Martinez, acquired last offseason to protect Cabrera, has been effective in that role, as his 130 wRC+ this season tied a career high. Delmon Young, acquired on a waiver trade, has been a force in Detroit’s lineup over the final stretch of the team’s regular season, and then set a franchise record with three ALDS home runs. However, he left Game 5 with an oblique strain after his first inning home run. If the injury is significant, Young could be done for the postseason. The Tigers will be hoping it’s only a minor strain. Then there’s Jhonny Peralta who led all AL shortstops with 120 wRC+. Peralta put up a career-high 5.2 WAR in an outstanding season.

Pitching

C.J. Wilson is the clear ace of the Rangers staff. Wilson will hit free agency this season, and it’s been speculated that they’re likely to lose him to another team. Wilson’s 3.29 SIERA was 10th in the AL. He’ll be followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison. Holland had something of a breakout this year, putting up 3.6 WAR. He was behind only Neftali Feliz among the Rangers’ top pitching prospects in 2009 before joining the big club, and may be beginning to realize some of that potential. Harrison also had a pretty big breakout campaign, putting up 4.2 WAR in 30 starts after never topping 0.7 in his previous three seasons in the majors. Harrison is one of two Rangers who successfully moved from the bullpen to the rotation this season, as Alexi Ogando’s success as a starter has been a big storyline for this team. Ogando has been moved back to the bullpen for the playoff. He performed admirably throughout the Rangers’ series against the Rays, culminating in a spotless eighth inning of game 4 setting up Neftali Feliz for the series ending save. Ogando and Harrison’s success may pave the way for Feliz to move to the rotation next season, but the Rangers won’t begin to discuss that decision in earnest until the end of their playoff run.

Across the diamond, Justin Verlander put together one of the best seasons from any pitcher in recent memory. His last start of the season gave him a shot at being the first 25 game winner since Bob Welch in 1990. Not much else needs to be said about the Triple Crown winner, other than the fact that the Tigers will pitch him as many times as they possibly can in this series and every time they do he will almost certainly give them a chance to win. Verlander will be followed in the rotation by Rick Porcello, as the Tigers used both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer in their game 5 victory. Porcello and Scherzer are both young guys with big stuff, but who haven’t seen the results to match their potential yet. Both put up 2.7 WAR this season, Fister may end up being the most important acquisition by any team at this year’s trade deadline, although Hunter Pence will certainly give him a run for his money. Fister has produced 5,6 WAR this season, including 2.4 and a 2.63 SIERA in 70.1 innings with Detroit. These starters will hand the ball to the Tigers’ impressive bullpen, led by Jose “Papa Grande” Valverde. Valverde certainly has a tendency to make the ninth inning a bit of an adventure, but he’s 51-for-51 in save opportunities this season after closing out the ALDS in New York.

Home field advantage, which the Rangers clinched over the Tigers on the final day of the season, could be a huge deciding factor in this series. In the bandbox in Arlington, the Rangers’ potent office could take over games and simply out-mash the Tigers. However, in the expansive Comerica Park, the Tigers’ pitching will have a decided advantage. I think the Tigers will win at least two of their three home games, and I will be very surprised if Justin Verlander doesn’t give his team a fairly good chance to win at least one of the games in Arlington. If the Rangers can take the other three games in Arlington, that would likely set up a Verlander vs. Wilson in game 7 in Texas for all the marbles. In a deciding game, with the team on his back, it’s hard to bet against the best pitcher in the American League, so I’m going to take the Tigers to advance in what should be a thoroughly entertaining series.

They are not calling it a fire sale.  Let’s get that out of the way first.

The GM meetings don’t usually bring much noise, and there were no major moves made by the Tigers during this round of meetings which wrapped up last night in Chicago.  But what we learned may give us a deep insight into the immediate and long-term future of the Detroit franchise.

News first broke Tuesday that the Tigers were at least listening to, and possibly even making offers on deals that included all-star right hander Edwin Jackson.  It was also reported that catcher Gerald Laird was made available by the Tigers.  Then Wednesday, straight out of a Lynn Henning wet dream, word spread that Detroit was open to dealing to the fray, all-star Curtis Granderson.  By the end of the day, all-star third baseman Brandon Inge’s name had been added.

Is this simply a case of a GM doing his due diligence and being open to talking about deals that might improve his club, deals that would routinely be spoken about in any given off season?  Or is there something bigger here?

I’ll not get into the economic state that the Detroit area finds itself in.  We all know what’s happened with the auto industry and the sky-high unemployment rate.  We also know that the Tigers have salary commitments for 2010 that they will not be able to move.  No GM, in this economy, will be persuaded to take on the bad contracts the Tigers would like to dump.

So it would appear that Dombrowski might be open to moving some of the team’s younger players like Jackson and Granderson in an attempt to restock the thinning farm system and hopefully bring back some pieces they can add to the major league roster for 2010.

But make no mistake, the economy does play a factor here.  Would the Tigers like to deal away the names that have been mentioned? In a perfect world, the easy answer is no.  Ideally, the Tigers would build their club around players like Jackson and Granderson.  They would like to have Laird as the mentor to Alex Avila behind the plate and they would want Inge’s glove manning the hot corner.

Image via Wikipedia

Or is it simply that Detroit is exploring the possibilities of selling off on Jackson when his value is at its peak?  If all are healthy, the Tigers appear to have a surplus of potential starting pitchers, none whose trade value is as high as Jackson’s (Verlander and Porcello obviously have higher value, but they aren’t going anywhere).

If the Tigers feel they can plug a hole at shortstop (for example) by trading Jackson and still have a solid group of starting pitchers, they would be fools not to do that.  Jackson would begin next season as the number three starter in Detroit, but there are others that can conceivably fill that role.  While neither Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, nor Armando Galarraga have inspired much confidence, all will be a part of the team next year.  If someone fails, Eddie Bonine and Zach Miner can step in as well.

I think there is a strong possibility that Jackson does end up getting dealt, but I doubt that Granderson does.  Granderson had a terrible season (excluding all the home runs) last year, so trading him makes little sense, especially at a still affordable $5 million next year.  With Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen penciled in as corner outfielders, the Tigers need Granderson in center.

As far as Laird and Inge go, Laird is arbitration eligible and will get a good-sized raise from his $2.7 million salary of a season ago.  Detroit may and should feel like there are cheaper options to nurture Avila along while splitting duties behind the plate.  Inexpensive backup-type catchers are seemingly always available, so there should be plenty of options in replacing Laird on the team, with minimal impact on the outcome of games.  For all that Laird brought to the 2009 Tigers defensively, the guy simply struggles with the bat.  Those catchers don’t cost $3.5 million per year.

Inge is entering the final year of his contract that pays him $6.3 million next season.  His first half of 2009 was amazing, but once he injured his knees, his offense fell off the map.  A healthy Inge is essential to this team, especially with the glove, but he has never been a strong hitter.  Trading Inge would free up some payroll that could be allocated to re-signing a Brandon Lyon or a Fernando Rodney, but it would also leave a gaping hole at third base.  If the Tigers could find a suitable replacement (and I don’t think that player is currently in the organization), it may be wise to make such a move.

(major hat tip, as always, to MLB Trade Rumors)

Editor’s note: This will be John’s last post here at Baseball Reflections & I personally wanted to tank him for his work and support over these months!

Detroit 5, Minnesota 6

Final Record 86-77 (second place)

Devastation.  That’s what I felt Tuesday night as the Twins celebrated following their 12th inning walk off, that’s what I’m feeling Wednesday morning as I write this.

The back and forth nature of this game made it a classic.  The stakes made it one of the greatest in recent memory.  As a Tiger fan, I think it may be easy to get so wrapped up in the disappointment of losing and miss that this was one of the great games in the last several years.

The long and short is that the Twins won the game on a walk-off single by Alexi Casilla, a player whose game last night and season this year might personify the Twins better than any other.  Casilla began the year as the starting second baseman in Minnesota.  He struggled and was sent to the minor leagues.  When he got back, Nick Punto had taken his job.  Now he is the Twins’ biggest hero.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

There is plenty of second guessing to be done now that the results are in.  Why was Fernando Rodney left out there for his fourth inning of work?  Why did Jim Leyland send Zach Miner back to the mound in the seventh after he had struggled in the sixth?  Why would you walk Delmon Young to get to Casilla when he was 3/5 in his career versus Rodney?

The answers no longer matter, there was no game for the Tigers on Wednesday or for the rest of the 2009 season.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Critics will call this Tigers team chokers.  They will note that Detroit is the first team to miss the playoffs after holding a three game lead with four to play.  What they forget is that the Twins won 17 of the last 21 games to pass them.  Let it be noted that three of those four losses came versus the Tigers.  Minnesota just stopped losing to anyone else.  A team that had played under .500 all year took off when two of their best hitters were lost for the season.  The Twins were a freight train.  There was no stopping them.

Cheers for

• Magglio Ordonez- Maggs got the scoring started with a run scoring single, then tied the game with a solo home run when hope appeared lost in the eighth.  It was the second straight game in which Magglio homered.  He had an amazing second half.

• Miguel Cabrera- for all he put himself through over the weekend, Cabrera delivered a double and a two-run homer in his first two at bats.  As Chip Caray noted, “Redemption, thy name is Cabrera.”

• Fernando Rodney- The numbers will show that Rodney allowed the tying run in the 10th and then the winning run in the 12th, but Rodney pitched his heart out and had to work around a misplayed triple that put the tying run on base in that 10th inning.  I don’t know, but I would guess he went up by at least five points in Leyland’s book.  Too soon?

• Rick Porcello- It feels like months ago that Porcello started this game.  He tied his career high with eight strike outs and pitched very well, all things considered.  It’s going to be fun watching him pitch in Detroit for years to come.

• The Minnesota Twins- They just stopped losing.  I would hope that this incredible run is remembered by history far more than the Tigers’ losses.  Detroit did not go 2-13 down the stretch or anything like that, Minnesota just caught fire and there was nothing that could stop them.  Congratulations to the Division Champs.  Now go kick the hell out of the Yankees.

Jeers to

• Zach Miner- Miner came up small in the biggest spot of the year, unable to keep Orlando Cabrera in the ballpark and turning a one run lead into a deficit.  He can be an effective pitcher, but he thinks he’s a starter.  Trade him to someone else that agrees.

• Ryan Raburn- Raburn helped the cause with two hits and he gunned down the winning run at the plate, but his defense cuts the other way, too.  Raburn leapt into (and not over) the wall on the Cabrera homer that gave Minnesota the lead, a more experienced outfielder would know to give himself more room to jump.  He also played Micheal Cuddyer’s single into a triple to lead off the 10th with a one run lead.  You absolutely have got to keep that ball in front of you, he did not.

What’s on tap

Sadly, nothing.  The Tigers end the season in second place after leading the division for 163 straight days.  There is a long, cold winter ahead.  Brandon Inge faces knee surgery, several players will be moving on to new clubs, and several new faces will take their place.

I’ll have a season recap coming soon.  In the meantime, watch the playoffs and hope that this club can play meaningful games next October as well.  That’s really all you can ask for.

As the July trade deadline neared, there was much rumbling about the Tigers lack of offensive prowess.  The general consensus was that Detroit had to make a move to bring in a big bat.  He should be left handed and be able to hit for some power.  Instead, Dave Dombowski pulled the trigger on a deal for LHP Jarrod Washburn.

Then in mid-August, the Tigers added that hitter, acquiring Aubrey Huff from Baltimore.  So far, neither Washburn nor Huff have been the key to maintaining the Tigers’ divisional lead.

The difference maker so far has been a healthy Carlos Guillen.

Since returning from injury on July 24, Guillen has provided very solid production.  Coupled with a resurgence from Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco, Guillen has taken his rightful place in the middle of the Tigers order and this lead to a much stronger team offense.

When the 2009 season began, Guillen was slated to play left field for Detroit.  The former All-Star short stop had moved to first base and then third base in 2008, trying to cope with a body that was failing him.  In order to shore up in infield defense, Guillen was shuttled out to left, allowing Brandon Inge to take over as the everyday third baseman.

Guillen wasn’t ready.  Guillen broke camp with a bad Achilles and was trying to play through a throbbing right shoulder.  The results were not good.  Before the injuries finally pushed Guillen to the disabled list, he had limped through 24 games, mostly limited to DH duties.  During that time, he had a paltry line of .200/.267/.244/.512 in 90 at bats.

As his time on the DL grew, the reports were not encouraging.  As late as early July, there were rumors of a possible surgery to be performed on Guillen’s shoulder, a move that would cost him the rest of the year.  But Guillen pressed forward with his rehab, and eventually saw some improvements.

Guillen began feeling good enough to begin a rehab assignment with AAA Toledo in mid-July.  With the Tigers facing the rival White Sox for a five game series, Detroit made the move to recall Guillen, though he was not yet completely healthy.  In fact, he’s still not.

Image via Wikipedia

Though listed as a switch hitter, Guillen’s shoulder has not yet healed enough to allow him to hit right handed.  He only recently began playing defense again, seeing time at first base and left field.  But what he has done, at half strength, has been a huge shot in the arm for a sagging Tigers offense.

In 33 games since his return, Guillen has belted eight home runs, and has driven in 23 runs.  Prior to his disabled list stint, he had zero homers and just six RBI.  While his season totals don’t look all that impressive, he has carried a .287/.354/.523/.877 line since his return.

Since being acquired prior to the 2004 season, Guillen has been a fixture in the heart of the Tigers order.  Guillen’s return to form, along with solid contributions from Ordonez and MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera, has kept the Tigers in first place through August.

The Tigers will play rivals Minnesota and Chicago 13 more times before the season’s end.  If Detroit plans to hold off both of those clubs, it will take a strong effort from the entire team.  But specifically, it will take a healthy dose of Carlos Guillen.

When you take a peek at the poor offensive statistics that the Tigers have posted as a team this year, it would easy to have the knee-jerk reaction to want to see Legendary Lloyd given his walking papers.  Maybe a new voice is needed to wake these guys up.  But when Kurt looked deeper at the numbers of a couple of players, what he found was that McClendon role in the steady decline of the Tigers’ offense was minimal at best.

McClendon took over as the hitting coach in 2007, after serving as bench coach the year prior.  2007 saw career years from Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco and the Tigers finished second in the AL in runs scored at 5.87 per game.

Even a quick glace at the three players listed above this season will show a significant drop in production this season.  Remember though, Ordonez and Polanco are both on the wrong side of their primes, as they were back in ‘07, so a decreased level of performance should certainly have been expected.

As for Granderson, what we may be seeing is the evolution of him as a hitter.  Two seasons ago, Granderson was still a gap hitter focused on line drives and using his speed to gain extra bases.  This season, Granderson has hit home runs (and fly balls) at a significantly higher rate, thus leading to a lower batting average and OBP.  Kurt also points out that his BABIP is down from years past, which will happen as fly ball rates increase, but also illustrates that bad luck is playing a role.

Granderson was certainly never a prototypical lead-off hitter, and he appears more suited now to hit in the middle of the order.  But again, that is something that had always been projected to happen as he matured.

If the Tigers have been guilty of anything as it pertains to offense this season, it was that they came into this season relying too much on older hitters to stay healthy and maintain production levels they had in the past.  In the post-Steroid Era, it is much more likely that older players will see drops in production earlier and more severely than they had over the past 12 to 15 years.  The days of outfielders staying healthy and continuing to mash into their late 30’s are very simply behind us.

As was the case with the overwhelming majority of players prior to the steroid explosion of the 90’s, hitters today will see sharp declines at an earlier age.  Ordonez, now 35, has been victimized by declining bat speed that really began last season, but has taken a sharp down-turn this year.  There is very little chance he will be able to regain that bat speed at any point as he gets older.

Similarly, Polanco and Carlos Guillen have a lot of games on their bodies, and while much of Polanco’s struggles can be attributed to bad luck, Guillen’s injuries are something that are likely to continue.  Again, when you enter the season relying on thirty-somethings to carry the load, you run the very real risk of having to then rely on AAA players to pick up slack that they frankly are not yet capable of doing.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As far as McClendon is concerned, he has done a phenomenal job getting Brandon Inge to finally take instruction, and the results have been there.  Inge has been one of the very few bright spots on this team, and without his production, the Tigers would very likely be looking up from third place.

Through his tutelage, McClendon has also succeeded in getting solid production from hitters like Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn, and Adam Everett, while still not a major threat with the bat, is having his best offensive season is recent memory.

The problem with this team’s offense is absolutely not the hitting coach, it is in fact two-fold.  The lack of quality players still in their prime is the biggest issue.  Granderson is evolving into the hitter he likely will be throughout the next decade, and Miguel Cabrera continues to assault opposing pitchers, but nearly everyone else is either on the down side of their careers or not yet to their prime.

Coupled with that, the Tigers rank near the bottom in the AL with a .327 OBP and also have grounded into more double plays than any other AL club.  So when they do get runners on base, frequently those runners are eliminated via the double play.

The Tigers have actually stranded fewer runners than any AL team.  So part of the issues lie simply in hitters being too aggressive and not waiting for a quality pitch to hit.  It is difficult to teach pitch recognition, and that has been an organization problem for decades.

As the All-Star break draws near, many teams around the league are looking for upgrades. Your Motor City Kitties are no exception. The Tigers need for a another bat has been well chronicled, and many names have been tossed around the blogosphere. Unfortunately, the Tigers failed to pounce on the one name that I would have liked them to target; Eric Hinske.

On Tuesday June 30, the Pirates made their annual trade with the Yankees, sending Hinske to New York along with cash for two minor leaguers. You may recall that over the past several seasons, the Pirates have made several deals with the Yankees, sending them Craig Wilson, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, and Xavier Nady. The Pirates always seem to get the short end of such trades.

The Yankees use these players to solidify their push to the playoffs, while the Pirates continue to flounder until the next season, when they repeat the process. It has been said that the definition of insanity is to repeat your actions and expect different results. I believe the Pirates’ executives to be insane.

Image by afagen via Flickr

So what’s left for Detroit? Guys like Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott are likely still available, as are Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson, but all will have a bigger price tag than Hinske.

Perhaps, the Tigers’ answer will come from within, as Carlos Guillen is progressing nicely from his shoulder injury that has cost him most of the season. If he can regain any type of the form at the plate he has displayed over the past several seasons, he would be a welcome addition to the Tigers’ inconsistent attack.

The simple facts are that if the Tigers plan to make it to October, the offense needs a boost. If players like Guillen and Magglio Ordonez can find the fountain of youth, they should have enough to get there. If not, and I would not put a ton of faith in that happening, the team must look outside the organization for help.

A versatile left handed hitter that’s capable of hitting the long ball would be ideal. With Hinske’s name scratched from the shopping list, I will throw my support behind Chad Tracy of the Diamondbacks.

Tracy has spent the last month on the disabled list, but when healthy, has shown good pop throughout his career, twice hitting at least 20 home runs in a season. He can play first base and third base. He played in the outfield regularly prior to 2006, so he could probably get by there again.

Tracy could be activated by this weekend and while it’s true that he has been injury prone over the past three seasons, it would be a risk to take him on, the Tigers wouldn’t need him to play everyday. He could be used in a platoon situation to help offset the losses of production the team was counting on from Ordonez and Guillen.

Given his injury history and the D-backs roster full of young talent, Arizona shouldn’t ask for a ton in return, as they don’t really have a place for him to play.  Tracy has a $7 million option for next season with a buyout of $1 million, so he should fit into the Tigers’ plans financially as well.

Quality left-handed pitching seems to be lacking, to put it gently, and quality left-handed hitting is a problem as well. The lineup protection for is drying up, which could lead teams to pitch around him more and more.

If this team intends on staying in first place these shortcomings need to be addressed, and quickly.

It should be a buyers market this year. The state of our economy has impacted everyone, including major league franchises. A number of teams are beyond out of the running for a playoff berth and are likely weeks or even days away from a rebuilding purge of veteran talent. This trade deadline bonanza should be as rich and fruitful as any in the last decade.

It’s too bad that the Tigers won’t be able to capitalize on it.

Adding quality talent at the deadline requires two things – prospects to trade away and money to pay the players you are acquiring. The Tigers are desperately short on prospects and have a payroll that is not only bursting at the seams, but with players who are not helping this team win to boot.

I’ve spent the better part of a week scouring the internet, searching for one reputable baseball publication that considers the Tigers farm system to be in good shape. I can’t find one.

Trades for Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis sent most of the top tier talent in the system elsewhere. The #1 prospect in the organization coming into this season was Rick Porcello, who is no longer a prospect and definitely not for sale. The same can be said for Ryan Perry, who has been elevated to the big club once again, so starved for bullpen depth. A flurry of position players have come up through the system to the Tigers thus far, with barely an impact.

It’s time to tell it like it is – the Tigers farm system, as a whole, is awful.

What little quality talent exists in the minor league affiliates is either penciled in for next season or blocked by unmovable contracts on the 25 man roster. Placido Polanco and Matt Treanor are free agents at the end of this season and Gerald Laird is in his last arbitration year. Many people, including myself, expect Scott Sizemore and Dusty Ryan to take their place in 2010, meaning they would be off-limits come trading time.

What does that leave available for the Tigers to offer in exchange for the quality talent they need right now?

Not much.

Of the top 100 prospects listed by Baseball America the Detroit Tigers have one, the aforementioned Rick Porcello.  Beyond The Box Score rated the Tigers farm system as having the least value in all of baseball, and that was including Porcello. Scouting Book has a matrix of the top 393 prospects in baseball, including their ranks with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Aside from Porcello (19) and Perry (97) the next Tiger on the Scouting Book list is shortstop Cale Iorg at 137. He is un-ranked by both BA and BP. The same can be said for Jeff Larish (251), Dusty Ryan (254), Casey Crosby (287), Fu-Te-Ni (317) and Scott Sizemore (358).

The cupboard is bare my friends.

Major league teams looking to unload high-priced, high-talent veterans want inexpensive, young talent in return. Dave Dombrowski can’t give what he doesn’t have. Opposing MLB GM’s won’t take what they don’t want. Complicating matters even more are the debilitating contracts littering the major league roster, chained to the ankles of management like boulders.

I think it’s fair to state that Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman are not helping this ballclub win very many games this year. They are however draining the Tigers cash reserves at an alarming rate.

The Tigers will pay these five players a combined $55,500,000 this year. While the contract of Gary Sheffield comes off the books for 2010 the other four remain, at a staggering $47,500,000 for next season. That’s more than one hundred million dollars over two years for five players that for one reason or another are doing nothing to help this team win. To be fair, Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman have succumbed to injuries, so the argument can be made that there was some bad luck here, although I believe these were bad contracts regardless of health. However you figure it, that money is going to be paid out, like it or not.

Even if the team were able to pull a fast one and acquire some veteran talent for nothing, the Tigers will have to pay these players. Am I the only one wondering where the money would come from?

It certainly isn’t coming from ticket revenue, as attendance at Comerica Park is down, in a big way. Last season the Tigers set an all-time record for attendance, drawing more than three million fans and averaging 39,538 fans per home game. So far this season the Tigers have drawn 795,717 fans through 28 home games, for an average of 28,418. That’s a 28% drop from last season, and the team has been in first place for weeks, something that did not happen last year.

I understand that Mike Ilitch is a wealthy man, and that he loves winning, but can we really expect him to pad a payroll that is already the fifth highest in all of baseball? When attendance is down 28%? We haven’t even explored the fact that next years payroll will be even higher.

Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Joel Zumaya among others will be arbitration eligible and will get enormous raises. The Tigers will see Fernando Rodney, Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon and Adam Everett hit the free agent market – meaning they will need to be re-signed or replaced, which is going to cost money.

When the big picture is examined in this light I struggle to find any rational arguments that support the Tigers being buyers at the deadline, at least for big name talent. Yes, Mike Ilitch has stated that he is willing to do whatever it takes to win, but sometimes desire alone is not enough.

I hope I’m wrong. I sincerely do. I would love nothing more than to see the Tigers add the missing pieces to a championship run and march through the playoffs unabated. I just don’t see how the organization can transform a litiny of mediocre prospects into star power, or where the money will come from to pay them. We’ll see. It’s a long summer and anything is possible. But I won’t be surprised if July 31 passes quietly in Detroit this year.

Hazaa

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The St. Louis Cardinals have traded for former Padres SS Khalil Greene for two minor league players, one is pitcher Mark Worrell and a player to be named later. That’s not much for a major league SS with pop in his bat. I’m surprised that the Padres couldn’t get more for him than that.

The White Sox have sent SP Javier Vazquez to the Braves in a 6-player deal. Along with Vazquez the Braves also received RP Boone Logan in exchange for catcher Tyler Flowers, infielders Jonathan Gilmore and Brent Lillibridge and left-handed pitcher Santos Rodriguez. I would have thought that the White Sox would have required a major league ready player in exchange for Vazquez.

The Red Sox have signed Free Agent pitcher from Japan Junichi Tazawa for 3 years and $3.3M and should start the 2009 season in the minors, probably in AA-Portland (Sea Dogs).  He has pitched 4 years in the Japanese Industrial League (non-pro). He has both started and pitched out of the bullpen so it will be up to the Red Sox how they will use him, but my guess is out of the bullpen.

The Red Sox have also signed 2007 Rookie of the Year and 2008 MVP 2B Dustin Pedroia to a new 6 year contract, locking him up for the remainder of his arbitration years at $40.5M and 2 years beyond that which averages out to be $6.75M/year.

Holes to Fill

As mentioned earlier, the Tigers need to do anything they can that will make them allow fewer runs in 2009 than they did last season.This means that they will have to look at gaining some pitching this off season in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. As reported earlier by BaseballReflections.com, the Tigers may be looking to deal both Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson. One has to imagine they are probably only going to get anything decent for Robertson as Willis completely fell apart last season.

There seems to be no answer in the bullpen as perennial closer Todd Jones turned in his retirement papers while everyone else is spending the off season attempting to find their control.In addition to that, they need upgrades in nearly every defensive position (save centerfield where Curtis Granderson has been Gold Glove caliber). While they are not going to sacrifice some of their poor defenders’ bats in the line-up, they could at least keep them at the same position instead of moving them around, or in and out of the line-up.

Free Agents

Their free agents include right handed pitchers Freddy Garcia and Kyle Farnsworth, left handers Casey Fossum and Kenny Rogers, shortstop Edgar Renteria and catcher Vance Wilson.

The only one of the aforementioned that has a chance of coming back is Rogers, but he may be looking at Jones holding his fishing rod and comparing him to another woeful season in Detroit.Most of those players will not be missed at all, but with Wilson going, it leaves them with a real gaping hole at the catcher spot where they will have to find someone to serve at least as a backup.

The Outlook

There are not many reports out there that have the Tigers trading any of their current players to bring in some help that way, so that means if they are going to bring anyone in, it has to be through free agency or the farm system.

Detroit has a few outstanding names in their farm system, but most of those, like AA outfielder Wilken Ramirez and A pitcher Rick Porcello, are at least one more minor league season away form joining the big club. Unless someone surprises early on, it’s hard to see how the Tigers could improve at least this season from what they currently have in their farm system.

It’s hard to see the Tigers improving a good deal over what they did last season. Unless they decide to go after a big time free agent, it’s going to be hard for them to really make strides in their win/loss record and it is unclear if they are ready to spend more when their last spending spree didn’t exactly work out.

They may be able to move up to third in the division next season, but unless something major changes, it’s hard to see them going any higher than that.