Here are some quotes from a recent Boston Herald article, Harper Welcomes Ellsbury to the Record Book written by Sean McAdam.

Tommy wasn’t at Tuesday’s game, but he was watching and here is his comment upon watching the pitch that Ellsbury broke the record on, “I saw the ball pop out of the catcher’s glove,’’ said Harper this morning. “He got a good jump – I could see that. With Freddy Garcia, he’s pretty slow to the plate. It was a pretty good combination.’’

McAdam then asked how he felt about his 35 year record being broken and here’s what he had to say about that, “I’m glad for him,’’ said Harper. “I was there Sunday. I spoke with Jacoby Sunday. Over the course of the season, I would make some notes and every month or so, we would talk. But lately, he’d been going so well, there was no reason. I wished him luck. I’ve always told people that it’s good to know somebody personally who’s going to break (your record).’’

Harper was then asked about when he first started working with the man who would eventually break his record. “The minor league people wanted me to work with him,’’ Harper recalled. “He was playing in an intra-squad game. I went over and introduced myself to him and we went from there. I could see right there that he was eager to learn. We just hit it off. He’s a nice person and respectful.  I didn’t work with him on technique – just theory, when he should run. I told him about team philosophy.’’

To catch a glimpse of the potential of “the human spark plug”, please read what Harper told McAdam about the difference between their two styles. “His style was a lot different than mine,’’ said Harper. “I got a bigger lead.  As an instructor, you can’t make people do what you did. The main goal is to be safe at second. I got a bigger lead and stood a little taller. He has a crouch, like Rickey (Henderson).  He stays down and drives from there.’’

To further compare Ellsbury’s potential, all one has to do is take a look at his AL base stealing rival, LF Carl Crawford of the Rays and see how the two players compare statistically so far during this season (2009). As of this writing (Thursday afternoon, 8/27) Ellsbury has a 1 steal lead over Crawford (currently in his eighth season). It is my belief that in the next few seasons Ellsbury will easily top this season’s stolen base totals with improvements made in the following key statistics.  First, Crawford is currently hitting 21 points better than Ellsbury which translates into 10 more hits, which translates into 10 more possibilities to steal. Likewise, Crawford’s OBP is also 31 points higher, giving him that many more attempts more than Ellsbury.

So far, the player I like to call “the human spark plug” has been stealing bases at a clip of 11/month which would put him at 66 or so by the end of the season. What I am speculating is that if Ellsbury can improve upon his BA and OBP like he has shown possible from last season to this one, it is entirely possible to see him gain more opportunities to improve upon his SB numbers because he will be on base more. Therefore, I can see him stealing 80 or more bases next year and even reaching 100 in a few years from now. We have already seen him steal home against the Yankees, so the sky’s the limit, wouldn’t you say?

Related posts:

1. Top 10 Fantasy CF in 2009
2. Red Sox Trade Bait & Prospects
3. Red Sox Reflections After 25 games

Hi all. Time for our monthly look in from north of the border. Actually, it is well past time.  Sorry,

What has happened in the world of the Jays in the last month? You might have heard that we didn’t trade Roy Halladay after the most publicized trade negotiations in the history of baseball. JP Riccardi stated at the start that he would only trade Doc if the price was right. I’m actually kind of proud of him that he stuck to his guns on that one.

We did trade Scott Rolen. Rolen was a favorite of mine, he is great fun to watch on the field. Defensively he makes at least one amazing play a series and he was hitting terrific for us this year. Apparently he wanted to be traded closer to home. I think JP did pretty well getting Edwin Encarnicion, who is not near his equal defensively, but he had 26 homers last year. He’s not been as good this year but then he hurt his hand at the start of the season. It will likely take till next year before he is 100% again.

But the best part of the trade is the 2 young pitchers we picked up: Josh Roenicke (son of Gary who played for the Orioles) is in our bullpen now and looks like he could have the stuff of a future closer and Zachry Stewart looks like he could be a terrific starter in the future. He’s in Triple-A now but likely will be in the fight for a starting job next year. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training he likely will be up at some point. For a trade that Rolen asked for, Riccardi did a good job of getting value for him.

What else did the Jays do? Oh yeah. We gave away 2 time All-Star Alex Rios for nothing. Rios has great talent. I guess the best way I could put it was to steal something Bill James wrote years ago about another underachiever: he’s a $100 million airport with a $50 control tower. His mind often doesn’t seem to be in the game and I’m not sure he is teachable. His contract really isn’t that bad but he wore out his welcome in Toronto. So when the White Sox claimed him the Jays said ‘go ahead’.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

On the field the Jays have finally called up Travis Snider again. Which is good since we aren’t playing for anything at least we ought to get a look at our best prospect. We also called up long time minor leaguer Randy Ruiz. Randy hit a homer in each of his first two games against the New York Yankees. He likely won’t be great but he can’t be worse than Kevin Millar has been for us.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Beyond that we are just playing out the string now. The good part is that we have 3 really good looking left-handed starting pitchers that are making our future starting rotation look like it could be good. Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Marc Rzepczynski (who we are calling Scrabble for his 40 point name) are all looking good. Cecil will likely have to be sat down for September to keep his innings pitched down to a reasonable amount this season. Each of the three look like they could be strong members of our rotation next year and in the future.  And we get to watch Doc pitch every 5th day.

There are rumors that Jay’s ownership are going to loosen the purse strings this off season. Some figure they will give the team $20 million more to play with for player salaries.  Other interesting off season stories will include the possibility that the Roy Halladay trade talks will heat up again and JP Riccardi’s future with the team will likely be a topic of conversation. JP’s been GM for 8 seasons and hasn’t lead the Jays into the playoffs yet.

Related posts:

1. Blue Jays Reflections on the New GM
2. June Reflections on the Blue Jays
3. The Blue Jays Are On Fire!

When Dayton Moore was hired as general manager and David Glass decided it was okay to spend a little money, most of us were sure that the Royals were on the road back to respectability.

Bolstered by a better than it really was September, the Royals won more games in 2008 than they had since 2003 and finished out of last place for the first time since that magical 03 run, too.

There was legitimate thoughts of contending in 2009 from some and certainly expectations of finishing around .500 from most. A few of you sage commenters out there correctly projected that the Royals’ 2008 campaign was skewed by an 18-8 September and forecasted a three or four game decline. Did anyone expect the 2009 Kansas City Royals to be battling the Washington Nationals for the title of worst team in baseball?

Well, welcome to the last week in August, where the Royals are just three and one-half games out of having to negotiate with Bryce Harper next June.

This Royals team has managed to dig into rock bottom in spectacular fashion. They traded their best setup man, Ramon Ramirez, for Coco Crisp: who gave the team six good weeks and is now out until mid-season of 2010. They traded their next best setup man, Leo Nunez, for a designated hitter in Mike Jacobs who might not be better than a guy the team already had in AAA (Kila Kaaihue) and has all of SIX more home runs than the team’s lead off hitter.

This is an organization that pinned its hopes on a second year shortstop in Mike Aviles, who, even before being injured, was a prime candidate for at least some regression. The backup plan? Why Tony Pena Jr., of course!

When Aviles did finally go down (and drew the ire of the organization for hiding his injury and trying to play through it – hell, if Tony Pena Jr. was MY backup, I’d figure I needed to play at all costs, too) the organization panicked into trading an underachieving yet high on potential pitching prospect for an overpaid, underranged shortstop long on reputation and short on production.

Along the way, the Royals have coddled their star closer to the point of making him irrelevant (although it should be noted that Trey Hillman has at last opted to salvage a few games by going outside the box and using Joakim Soria for multiple two inning saves) and overused their staff leader, Gil Meche, to the point that he is a shell of the pitcher he had been the previous two seasons.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

The fall back to baseball’s laughingstock has included posting a sub-five hundred record in games started by the league’s best pitcher (Zack Greinke), sending down third baseman Alex Gordon just last week after rushing him through his rehab from injury (they had 30 days to play him in the minors and instead opted to bring him back two weeks early) and carrying 13 pitchers and three catchers on their 25 man roster.

This past weekend, a sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, a team with no more money than the Royals who happened to draft and develop the heart of their batting order, we saw two different rightfielders (Josh Anderson and Willie Bloomquist) misplay the team out of a victory and multiple bullpen meltdowns highlighted by Kyle Farnsworth’s actual incernation on the mound.

All the while, this organization seems to be sailing serenely forward as if all is going according to plan. They have used just 17 pitchers this season: none of them rookies, four of them (Jamey Wright, Horacio Ramirez, Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen) vagabond veterans. In fact, not one player has made his major league debut for the Royals this season.

This is an organization that seems to almost be afraid to ‘find out’ about players. They don’t want to play speedy Josh Anderson in centerfield because ‘Kaufmann Stadium has a lot of area to cover’. They don’t want to give Brayan Pena three months to prove or disprove if he is a starting catcher because they want Miguel Olivo’s ’slug’ in the lineup. A call up of Kila Kaaihue or Jordan Parraz (before he got hurt…again) would have necessitated exposing one of the teams EIGHT relievers to waivers. GASP! The horror!

Submarining reliever Chris Hayes or fireballing reliever Carlos Rosa or Chris Nicoll, Jason Godin, Victor Marte or even Brandon Duckworth or Lenny DiNardo, might help this wretched assembly of ineffectiveness that Kansas City calls a bullpen. Instead, the Royals stay with the same group. I’m sure if Doug Waechter had not been injured all would have been solved.

Trust me, I tried to ‘trust the process’. I thought Ramirez for Crisp was a reasonable gamble and even was not abhorred by the Nunez for Jacbos deal. I was not against Gil Meche throwing 132 pitches – remember the last batter was a 10 pitch plate appearance – although the idea of tossing him 121 pitches after he claimed of a dead arm on July 1st remains a criminal offense. I believed in Juan Cruz and thought he and Ron Mahay would be a capable setup tandem

Well, I was wrong, but I’m willing to admit that. By mid-June, I was thinking about changes that could be made to improve this team: if not for 2009, at least for 2010. It is easy for me to admit mistakes, given that my quotes don’t get published in the newspaper and I don’t have to sign the checks for said mistakes. I get that it is hard, maybe counterproductive, for Dayton Moore and crew to say ‘hey, we screwed up, we’ll have to start over, again’.

My concern, however, is that they truly don’t believe they have done anything wrong: that, if not for injuries, the Royals would be in contention. That is the only reasoning I can see for this organization’s complete lack of substantial movement, outside of acquiring Betancourt, as the season crumbled around them.

Die hard Royals fans know baseball and they continue to show up season after season. They follow the draft with great anticipation and many can name thirty or more of the players in the minor leagues. They care, period.

The casual fans may have rightfully packed it in. The ones that remain, going to games, devouring every morsel of Royals’ coverage, writing and commenting on blogs and forums: they get it. They know baseball, good and bad, and they know when they are being laughed at.

Thank you, Dayton Moore, David Glass and Trey Hillman, you have led us back…all the way to 2004. I bet Ruben Mateo and Abraham Nunez are waiting by the phone right now.

Related posts:

1. A Royal Thirty Days of Stink
2. Royals Showcase Textbook Bad Baseball
3. The Royals Become Relevant

Another trade deadline passed, another swirl of rumors connecting the Angels to nearly every premium player out there, and disappointingly but not unexpectedly – another stretch run in which the Angels have decided to sit on their hands and stand pat.

Last year’s acquisition of Mark Teixiera not withstanding, the Angels have been quiet more often than not on deadline day, despite owner Arte Moreno’s demonstrated willingness to take on payroll.

But while their annual post-season rivals in Boston and New York are constantly tinkering with their rosters, the Angels have demonstrated a cautious reluctance to part with their own prospects.   So season after season, the Angels have clung onto highly touted prospects like Dallas McPherson, Jeff Mathis, Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick, only to see their values plummet as they’ve failed to live up to lofty expectations.

To get over the post-season hump that’s plagued the Angels since winning it all in 2002, is it necessary for them to be more aggressive…. and more willing to part with their prized prospects?

The Angels success this season -  while playing significant stretches without their two best hitters and two best pitchers, and suffering the tragic death of teammate Nick Adenhart – speaks to the depth of talent in the organization.

But while top tier prospects Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood have struggled, lower ceiling organizational products like Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales and lower-budget acquisitions like Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis have lead the team to within percentage points of the best record in baseball.

The departure of Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez and Jon Garland provided a bounty of 2009 draft choices – 5 of the top 48 picks -  with which to re-stock the system.  And with Morales putting up similar numbers to Teixiera at a fraction of the cost, they could have afforded to add a difference maker like Roy Halladay – even at the exorbitant price that JP Ricciardi was reported to be asking.

Halladay presented an interesting opportunity for the Angels.  With Toronto’s expressed preference to trade him outside the division, despite Boston’s last minute aggressive pitch – rare is the opportunity to acquire a highly coveted player that the Angels have a leg up on the Yankees and Red Sox.  Last season, they couldn’t compete for Teixiera or Sabathia.  If Halladay gets to the free agent market after 2010, the Angels will be bidding against two teams with much deeper pockets.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Combined with the pending free-agency of Angels’ ace John Lackey, the Angels had a pressing need to add a front line arm for the playoff push and beyond – but apparently not enough for Reagins to pull the trigger.

While it’s hard to come down too hard on Reagins for not making a deal when we don’t know what was being asked of him, he and his predecessor Bill Stoneman have a clearly demonstrated preference for the free agency pool, where they’ve had more hits than misses.  But you could probably count the number of Angel in-season moves this decade on one-hand.  This is a team built to win in the regular season… not necessarily the post season.

The success of the team in the absence of key contributors has only reinforced the high opinion of the Angels talent evaluation skills.  Teixeira leaves and they don’t miss a beat with Morales.  Kendrick disappoints and Maicer Izturis carries the load and a plus .300 average.  The game turns it’s back on Bobby Abreu, and the Angels get the free agency deal of the year – and an OBP setting example that has influenced the offensive approach of the entire team.  The historically impatient Angels are #2 in OBP in all of baseball… percentage points behind the Yankees.   The top 3 pitchers go down with injuries, and Matt Palmer comes from out of nowhere to win his first 6 games consecutively.

With that kind of track record in evaluating talent, Reagins and company can afford to be a little bolder in the future when opportunities occur at the deadline.

This is my first guest post for BaseballReflections.com . Peter Schiller has assembled a really unique and informative baseball site by attracting an eclectic group of bloggers, and I’m grateful to be a part of it.

Related posts:

1. Reflections on the Brewers at the Trade Deadline
2. Red Sox Trade Bait & Prospects
3. Why The Trade Deadline May Be Disappointing For Tigers Fans

As the Baltimore Orioles complete another disappointing season and prepare for 2010, there are 4 key questions that team president Andy MacPhail must answer.

Can The O’s Contend in 2010?

Before any other decisions about the team’s future can be addressed, MacPhail and the Baltimore front office must assess the team and realistically determine if they think the Orioles are capable of being a contender in 2010. If so, then they should be much more aggressive in the off-season looking for the final pieces to help the Orioles challenge in the toughest division in the game.

If MacPhail thinks the team is still not quite ready to make the push, then they will certainly approach the off-season differently as they continue grooming the talented young players on the club.

I know the AL East is the toughest division in the game and contending against the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees is a lot different than trying to compete with the Twins, Tigers and White Sox, but I personally think it is time for the Orioles to stop playing for the future and instead make the commitment to winning in 2010.

The team may not have a very good record in 2009, but the pieces are there to be a consistent contender. To accomplish that, MacPhail and the ownership must be committed to spending the money it will take to get the Orioles the top-line players needed to push them toward the top of the division.

Should Dave Trembley Be The Manager in 2010 and Beyond?

This is a tough, but critical question. Since taking over as manager of the Orioles during the 2007 season, Dave Trembley has posted a record of 156-213 (.423 winning percentage). The Orioles have had a winning record in only 3 of the 13 months during his tenure and have not had a winning month in 2009.

Trembley is a career baseball guy who finally earned his chance to be a major league manager after years toiling away in the minors and as a major league coach. He seems to be well liked and has earned praise for how he handles the young players.

However, one of the ingredients that will be crucial if the Orioles are to ever break out of their decade long losing streak is a new, winning attitude. That attitude must start at the top with a manager who exudes confidence and expects for the team to win every single night.

Given that he has been a part of so much losing, I’m not sure that Trembley can be the guy to create that new attitude in the locker room.

Who Will Be The Number One Starting Pitcher?

More than any other move the Orioles make prior to the 2010 season, who they envision being the “staff ace” will speak volumes as to whether the Orioles front office sees the team as a contender.

Securing a top-line starting pitcher to anchor a talented young pitching staff would illustrate a commitment to winning. In recent years the Orioles have filled their pitching staff primarily with retreads while waiting for their “young guns” to mature.

The “young guns” are now ready, but need a veteran “ace” to lead the way.

Jeremy Guthrie has been the number one starter the last two seasons and while Guthrie is a solid pitcher, he is not a quality number one pitcher. If the Orioles don’t make a significant pitching move and are looking for Guthrie or one of the young pitchers currently on the team to be the staff leader, then it will be another long year for the Birds.

There is no question that putting significant money into a starting pitcher is a little bit of a gamble. However, for the Orioles it would be one worth taking. This is a pitching staff that desperately needs a leader.

You could argue that except for brief periods in the tenures of Erik Bedard and Sidney Ponson, the Orioles have not had a real staff ace since Mike Mussina left following the 2000 season.

Mussina was one of those pitchers that you knew would give you a chance to win every single time he took the mound. The Orioles need someone like a Mussina or CC Sabathia, Johan Santana or Roy Halladay who grabs the ball every fifth day and makes things happen.

Acquiring Halladay and signing him to a long-term contract would potentially be a franchise-changing move for the Orioles.

Adding Halladay or another top-line veteran hurler would not only improve the Baltimore pitching staff, but also immediately provide a spark to the rest of the team. Making a move of that nature would signal to the entire franchise that the front office believes they can win.

Even if they are not ready or able to spend the money on a pitcher like Halladay, at the very least the Orioles need to bring in a pitcher like Derek Lowe or Brad Penny who may not be a staff ace, but is a solid pitcher and can be expected to regularly pitch good enough for the team to win.

Who Will Play Third Base?

What the Orioles do at third base will probably be contingent on whether they are making a playoff push in 2010 or building for 2011.

It seems apparent that Melvin Mora’s days as the Orioles third baseman are coming to a close. He has been a solid player for the team over the last decade, but his numbers have diminished in 2009.

Baltimore had hoped that Scott Moore would be the third baseman of the future, but that is looking more doubtful as he has struggled with injuries. Josh Bell, who was acquired in the George Sherrill trade, could be the third baseman of the future, but is still in need of seasoning.

The Orioles could get by in 2010 with Ty Wigginton as the regular and acquire another versatile infielder to provide depth.

However, if the Orioles are looking to contend, they will instead need to acquire a regular third baseman and then allow Wigginton to continue in his role as a role player, that is if he doesn’t now move over to first base with the recent departure of Huff to Detroit.

So, it is obvious that the off-season will be an interesting one for the Orioles as Andy MacPhail continues to orchestrate the future of the franchise.

He has made some great decisions over the last couple years and put the team in a position to eventually become a contender.

However, all will be forgotten if he cannot make the final moves that push the team over the top and back to contending in the AL East.

It is great to build for the future, but the time has come and McPhail needs to make the moves that illustrate to the Orioles and their fans that next year has finally arrived.

Related posts:

1. Baltimore Orioles Announce Return of Dave Trembley For 2010
2. Baltimore Orioles Need To Provide Young Pitchers With Offensive Support
3. Baltimore Orioles Midseason Report: Seeing Past the Ugliness

The Texas Rangers have traditionally had a rough time with the second half of the season, but this season seems to be a little different. While they are winners of 7 out of 10 games, they do have hit a bump in the road with the AL-worst Oakland Athletics.  The Rangers were quiet during the trade deadline and stand only 4 ½ games back from the Angels in the West and only 3 ½ games back from the Wild Card as of the time of this writing (8/6/09).

With Nolan Ryan emphasizing pitcher endurance during the offseason, the fruits of his labor are being shown this late into the season.  The bright spot of the Rangers pitching spot has been the health of Kevin Millwood (until recently with a gluteus strain). Millwood, the ace of the staff, has 8 quality starts and a 3.39 ERA.  Pitching is keeping the Rangers afloat in the race, while the offense has tailed off.  Quite a paradox when someone considers that the Rangers have prided themselves on offense and offense alone.  Scott Feldman, surprisingly has 10 wins on the season and leads the club in wins.

Texas is now in the top 8 in the AL in strikeouts, BAA, quality starts, walks and ERA.  The bullpen is ranked as the fourth best bullpen in the AL.  While things are looking up on the pitching staff, the Rangers need to find their bats once again.  Their bats this season has landed them in the bottom five in BA, on-base percentage and runs scored.  In 2008, they finished the season first in all those categories.

Many critics had the Rangers finishing third in the West, but the Rangers find themselves in the playoff hunt with a month and a half to go in the regular season.  Pitchers like Derek Holland and Scott Feldman have filled in their roles as starters for the injured Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison, and have done a good job.  The bullpen is amongst the best in the league and Josh Hamilton is finding his groove back at the plate.

Texas had the number 1 rated farm system coming into the season.  We’ve seen many of those players in and out and they have produced.  One such player was Neftali Feliz, who struck out 4 straight and had a sickening 101 MPH fastball.  Another player that could be called up later this month is Justin Smoak, who is batting .379 in AAA.  He was drafted in ’08.

There is plenty of baseball to be played and not many expected to see Texas in contention this season.  Ron Washington’s job is safe for another season.  It’s anyone’s race in the West and it may very well come down to the last series of the season for the Angels and the Rangers.

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If you have any questions, please feel free to shoot me an e-mail at peter@baseballreflections.com.

Related posts:

1. The Rangers Struggled in June
2. The Texas Rangers Are In First Place Still!
3. Rangers Reflections: The First 3 Weeks

The Yankees went 18-9 in July, with a phenomenal 13-3 home record. But the month wasn’t all fireworks and picnics for the Bombers, who ended the month in first place.

The Yanks started the month in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. Then they had their usual hellish games against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, with the team’s longtime nemesis sweeping the Yanks in the last series before the All-Star Break.

Fortunately for Yankee fans, the Bombers gave them a homestand to remember after the break, winning 9 of 10 games. The Yanks swept 3 teams – Minnesota, Detroit, and Baltimore, and beat Oakland 3 games to 1.

Two other things delighted fans during that homestand. First was Old Timers’ Day. The highlight was seeing Don Zimmer cheered on his return after the coach quit the team in a huff 6 years ago. Some fans wondered whether his return to Old Timers’ Day would reverse the alleged Curse of Zim – the Yankees haven’t made it out to the World Series since his resignation after the 2003 season.

The other non-game related highlight of the Yankees’ homestand was the Yankees first annual HOPE Week. HOPE, which stands for Helping Others Persevere & Excel, brought every single Yankee player into the community to help and honor others, and brought those honored into the stadium to see games in person. The Yanks’ heartwarming events included putting on a nighttime carnival at the stadium for chidren who can’t be exposed to sunlight, and brightening the day of an Army veteran with ALS. It was fitting that the Yanks won every HOPE Week game, and that the players got high-fives on the field after each win from the people they honored.

After this tremendous home series – the best for the Bombers this year – the Yanks won 2 out of 3 against Tampa Bay on the road. But Chicago wasn’t their kind of town – they finished the month with 2 losses against the White Sox.

Image via Wikipedia

Joba Chamberlain, who had a disappointing first half, with a lethargic pace, strike-zone nibbling, and arguments with his catchers, turned it around in July. After the All-Star Break, Joba became Joba again, with 3 electric wins in a row, giving up only 2 runs and 8 hits in 21.2 innings. And in all 3 games, he made it past the sixth inning, something he had struggled with all season.

Another Yankee pitcher having a great July was A.J. Burnett. He went 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 5 July games and proved to be one of the Yankees’ best additions this year. Derek Jeter was July’s hitting star, with a .438 OBP and a .357 batting average.

The end of July means a flurry of trades in baseball, but the Yanks didn’t do much during the trading deadline – supersub Jerry Hairston Jr. was the only pickup. However, they did get great production from Eric Hinske, a player they traded for at the end of June. Hinske had 7 hits (5 of them homers) in just 21 July at-bats.

On the down side, Chien-Ming Wang went to see Dr. James Andrews and was diagnosed with a shoulder injury. The pitcher underwent arthoscopic surgery and could be out for as long as a year.

But all in all, July gave the Yankees a lot to hope about, in more ways than one.

Related posts:

1. Yankees Say Goodbye – and Hello – to Old Faces
2. Yankees’ Ten Most Pivotal Postseason Performers
3. New York Yankees Are Sailing, But Not Coasting

When you take a peek at the poor offensive statistics that the Tigers have posted as a team this year, it would easy to have the knee-jerk reaction to want to see Legendary Lloyd given his walking papers.  Maybe a new voice is needed to wake these guys up.  But when Kurt looked deeper at the numbers of a couple of players, what he found was that McClendon role in the steady decline of the Tigers’ offense was minimal at best.

McClendon took over as the hitting coach in 2007, after serving as bench coach the year prior.  2007 saw career years from Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco and the Tigers finished second in the AL in runs scored at 5.87 per game.

Even a quick glace at the three players listed above this season will show a significant drop in production this season.  Remember though, Ordonez and Polanco are both on the wrong side of their primes, as they were back in ‘07, so a decreased level of performance should certainly have been expected.

As for Granderson, what we may be seeing is the evolution of him as a hitter.  Two seasons ago, Granderson was still a gap hitter focused on line drives and using his speed to gain extra bases.  This season, Granderson has hit home runs (and fly balls) at a significantly higher rate, thus leading to a lower batting average and OBP.  Kurt also points out that his BABIP is down from years past, which will happen as fly ball rates increase, but also illustrates that bad luck is playing a role.

Granderson was certainly never a prototypical lead-off hitter, and he appears more suited now to hit in the middle of the order.  But again, that is something that had always been projected to happen as he matured.

If the Tigers have been guilty of anything as it pertains to offense this season, it was that they came into this season relying too much on older hitters to stay healthy and maintain production levels they had in the past.  In the post-Steroid Era, it is much more likely that older players will see drops in production earlier and more severely than they had over the past 12 to 15 years.  The days of outfielders staying healthy and continuing to mash into their late 30’s are very simply behind us.

As was the case with the overwhelming majority of players prior to the steroid explosion of the 90’s, hitters today will see sharp declines at an earlier age.  Ordonez, now 35, has been victimized by declining bat speed that really began last season, but has taken a sharp down-turn this year.  There is very little chance he will be able to regain that bat speed at any point as he gets older.

Similarly, Polanco and Carlos Guillen have a lot of games on their bodies, and while much of Polanco’s struggles can be attributed to bad luck, Guillen’s injuries are something that are likely to continue.  Again, when you enter the season relying on thirty-somethings to carry the load, you run the very real risk of having to then rely on AAA players to pick up slack that they frankly are not yet capable of doing.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As far as McClendon is concerned, he has done a phenomenal job getting Brandon Inge to finally take instruction, and the results have been there.  Inge has been one of the very few bright spots on this team, and without his production, the Tigers would very likely be looking up from third place.

Through his tutelage, McClendon has also succeeded in getting solid production from hitters like Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn, and Adam Everett, while still not a major threat with the bat, is having his best offensive season is recent memory.

The problem with this team’s offense is absolutely not the hitting coach, it is in fact two-fold.  The lack of quality players still in their prime is the biggest issue.  Granderson is evolving into the hitter he likely will be throughout the next decade, and Miguel Cabrera continues to assault opposing pitchers, but nearly everyone else is either on the down side of their careers or not yet to their prime.

Coupled with that, the Tigers rank near the bottom in the AL with a .327 OBP and also have grounded into more double plays than any other AL club.  So when they do get runners on base, frequently those runners are eliminated via the double play.

The Tigers have actually stranded fewer runners than any AL team.  So part of the issues lie simply in hitters being too aggressive and not waiting for a quality pitch to hit.  It is difficult to teach pitch recognition, and that has been an organization problem for decades.

Related posts:

1. Carlos Guillen Key for Tigers’ Pennant Chances
2. Tigers Still looking for Bats
3. Why The Trade Deadline May Be Disappointing For Tigers Fans

To save you, the reader, from any boring details I will only look at the catchers who have appeared in over 40 games and are hitting .250 or better. I then looked at the scouting reports from Sox Prospects.com on those top hitting catchers to get a feel for their defensive ability.

I looked at the stats of these catchers from AAA Pawtucket, AA Portland, A Advanced Salem, A Greenville, A Short Season Lowell & R Ft. Myers through 7/29/09.

This whittled the list down to 4 catchers, 2 of whom are still in level A ball, we’ll start with them. The other 2 come from both Portland and Pawtucket.

Tim Federowicz

After 76 games between single A Greenville (55 games) and Salem Advanced (21 games), Federowicz had some pretty impressive numbers. He scored 43 runs on 94 hits (most than any other catcher in the Sox system),  24 of those were doubles and 11 were HRs (most than any other catcher in the Red Sox system), while knocking in 40 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .278 with an OBP of only .316 with 2 SBs. Unfortunately, he also has the most errors than any other catcher in the system with 8. Another mark against him is hi BB/K ratio of 18/53.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Behind the plate, Federowicz presently is above average defensively, and has the tools to develop into a very good major league defensive catcher. Extremely strong and accurate arm with a quick release.  Outstanding at throwing runners out.  Calls a good game and handles the pitching staff well.  Glovework can use a little bit of improvement.

Luis Exposito

Exposito has played all of his 74 games in single A Salem Advanced and most of his numbers, except for runs, hits and HRs, are improvements from Federowicz. He scored only 28 runs on 78 hits, 24 of those were doubles, 1 triple and 6 were HRs (second most than any other catcher in the Red Sox system), while knocking in 45 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .279 with an OBP of .338 with 3 SBs. Unfortunately, he also has the second most errors than any other catcher in the system with 7. Another mark against him is hi BB/K ratio of 23/48.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Behind the plate, Exposito has tremendous catcher’s tools, including very good blocking skills, a strong arm, great instincts, and outstanding game calling ability.  However, he could use some improvement with his glovework and his throwing accuracy.  Gunned down 28.5% of attempted base stealers in 2008, which is below average.

Juan Apodaca

Apodaca has played all of his 41 games in AA Portland where he has scored 19 runs on 35 hits, 9 of them being doubles and 2 HRs while knocking in 17 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .250 with an OBP of .325 with 1 SB. He has 4 errors from behind the plate and another mark against him is his BB/K ratio of 14/34.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Apodaca has good catching skills and a strong arm.  Works with pitchers well.

Mark Wagner

Wagner is currently in Triple A Pawtucket where he has played in 16 games and is currently catching knuckleballer Charlie Zink. He played 42 games in AA Portland. He has scored a total of 26 runs on 58 hits, 25 of them being doubles and 3 HRs while knocking in 26 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .256 with an OBP of .334 with 1 SB. He has only 1 error from behind the plate and that’s after catching Zink. He also sports a BB/K ratio of 32/37. Also worthy to not are his AA/AAA splits. He hit .301 with an OBP of .410 and a BB/K ratio of 28/26 in Portland in those 42 games. In the 16 games in Pawtucket so far, he has only hit .211 with an OBP of .258 and a BB/K ratio of 4/11. I wonder how much of his adjustments in Pawtucket have to do with working on catching the knuckleball.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Good defensive catcher with a sturdy frame.  Excellent at throwing runners out.  Average at blocking balls in the dirt and catching mistake pitches off the plate.  Calls a good game, but needs to improve framing pitches.  Nimble behind the plate, looks very good fielding bunts.  Has the potential to be an excellent defensive catcher at the major league level.  He is said to be an extremely hard worker with strong leadership ability.

My Analysis

Federowicz has to work on his glove work (8 errors) as was noted in the scouting report above. In my opinion, this is critical to a catcher’s job security, but maybe this can be improved along with his plate discipline. I do like what his bat brings to the table, especially his power numbers. Other than that and MiLB seasoning, he might be a viable option in 3 or 4 years. Unfortunately, it would be unwise to play more than another year with Varitek as the Red Sox starting catcher.

Exposito, I am told, is high up on the prospect list internally for the Red Sox. He too needs to strengthen his glove work (7 errors) and after reading his scouting report, I wonder how many of those errors were throwing related. Other than that, the scouts have given him glowing reviews defensively and with a little more plate discipline, he would be a very good offensive catcher in the majors.

Apodaca is not mentioned as highly by the scouts defensively as the rest of these guys are, but he is now the starting catcher I believe in Portland so he’ll be a player to look out for in the second half to see if his defense improves. His bat alone isn’t good enough to make it.

If Wagner can bring his offensive numbers closer to his Portland totals with more games under his belt, along with his ability to catch Zink (barring no obvious hiccups), he just might get called up to Boston in September. The only player in his way is current Pawtucket catcher Dusty Brown and Brown would need one of two things to happen in order to block Wagner. Either Wagner struggles to hit like he did in Portland or Brown starts hitting at least 20 to 30 points higher than he is currently. The only knock the scouts had on Wagner behind the plate was in framing pitches and I assume that can easily be learned.

Honorable Mention

John Otness is currently playing at AAA Pawtucket after starting the year in AA Portland. He is having a good offensive year so far, but doesn’t seem to be too high on the Red Sox depth chart at the catcher position.

Related posts:

1. The Top 10 Fantasy Catchers of 2009
2. 2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: Catchers
3. Red Sox Trade Bait & Prospects

What have the Tampa Bay Rays shown us in 2009?  They have shown us that they are, indeed, a very good baseball team.  More importantly, they’ve shown remarkable depth – as we watch the New York Mets crash and burn because three of their biggest stars haven’t been healthy in 2009, it is impressive to see a younger and inexperienced team play eight games above .500 despite a myriad of injuries and underachievement.

Surely the disappointing pitching of Scott Kazmir (6.69 ERA), Andy Sonnanstine (6.61), and David Price (5.60 ERA, 33 BB and 11 HR in 53.0 innings pitched) would be enough to undo a team with less depth.  The Rays, however, have seen Jeff Niemann (3.81 ERA) emerge as a full time quality starter, and seen James Shields and Matt Garza develop as the new duo at the top of the rotation.

Had the Rays been mediocre this season, one could certainly have pointed to the injuries that have forced Jason Bartlett to miss 20 games, or Carlos Pena’s .217 batting average, or B.J. Upton’s continued two season funk as the explanation.  But Evan Longoria has continued to impress, Carl Crawford is playing better than ever, and Ben Zobrist, of all people, has emerged as a major league star, while Gabe Gross has finally come through on some of the potential I’ve been touting for so long (it is annoying).  Meanwhile, Wily Aybar and his 116 OPS+ may be one of the truly under-heralded players of the year so far.

Unfortunately for the Rays, this isn’t 2008, and this isn’t the AL Central.  Despite having a record that would lead three divisions, and would be half a game behind the NL wild card leader, the Rays find themselves 7.5 games behind the Yankees and 5.0 games behind the Red Sox.  It is beginning to look like the Rays are a very good team in a great division.  It is a sad truth, one which went one sabbatical in 2008 and came back refreshed and dominant as ever in 2009.

Image via Wikipedia

So what are the Rays to do?  Fortunately, they are a good, young, and (most importantly) inexpensive team, which means it is not fire-sale time.  In fact, it could be time to build for next year by taking advantage of this year’s replaceable parts.  If the Rays are not going to be in the playoffs – which it certainly appears is the case, though the season is far from over – they owe it to themselves to be better prepared for next season.  And here’s how:

Take advantage of this year’s contenders. While it is less demonstratively true than it was last year at this time, the Rays are still loaded with pitching talent.  Thus, I renew my call to trade struggling ace Scott Kazmir.  I said at the beginning of the season that he would likely never again be as valuable as trade bait as he was before the 2009 season, and now we are getting to the point where the Rays may never again be able to bluff about him being past whatever issues he was having.  If the Rays could throw Kazmir into the mix for some contending team, then they could possibly add a prospect who might be capable of contributing as soon as next season.

Sack Pat Burrell.  I don’t think they can trade this guy – I’m not sure what the market is for a guy who is hitting .226 with a .700 OPS, can’t be trusted to play in the field, and is in the first year of a big contract.  But I do know this – Burrell is the Rays third oldest hitter behind Gabe Kapler and Joe Dillon, and every time Joe Maddon inserts Burrell into the lineup he’s taking away playing time from some young player who could be both developing their talent and contributing to the club in a way that Burrell does not.

By the way, props to the Phillies for discarding a guy who was on their World Series team, who was their former number one overall draft pick, and who was climbing the all time franchise leader-boards in order to sign a guy who is five years older and doesn’t have the same monster-mash pedigree.  All Raul Ibanez has done with the Phillies this year is put up career numbers, stabilize left field from a defensive standpoint, and establish himself as the leading contender for the National League MVPOTAP (Most Valuable Player Other Than Pujols) Award.

Pretend to contend, and make a killer move. This is probably the most intriguing of the choices – what if the Rays paraded themselves around town as a team that was looking to make a strong roster move in order to shore up its chances at the post-season, with an eye towards next season.  Acquiring a guy for the second half of the season would (in theory anyway) give them an inside track to re-signing the guy when his contract is up.  What if Brandon Phillips or Josh Willingham were available for a relative paucity of minor league talent?

Demote Andy Sonnanstine. I don’t know what Sonnanstine’s issue in 2009 has been, and I don’t care.  The Rays need to find themselves a pitching guru – is Greg Maddux available?  Curt Schilling?  Bob Tewksbury? – and send Sonnanstine to pitch on whichever of their minor league teams is closest to whichever guy will work with him.  Sonnanstine is a control-style pitcher who, with tutoring, could be an effective pitcher, and without tutoring could be the next Brian Lawrence or Dave Bush.  Let Sonnanstine take some time to figure out what is bothering him, and get ready for next season.

At the end of the day, the Tampa Bay Rays do not have to be one of these teams that every ten years or so puts together a surprising season, like Kansas City, Baltimore, Cincinnati, or Florida.  Tampa Bay could be a legitimately decent franchise that plays around .500 ball every season, and from time to time things click and they are in the playoff mix – like the Astros, Phillies, Padres, and Mariners.  They certainly play in a big enough market in the Tampa/St. Pete area to make it happen.  What we are seeing right now is likely the beginning of that.

But if this franchise is going to operate on that level, then there needs to be a new mindset (which the Rays have, apparently, begun to adopt).  Bad teams scrap themselves when they are out of it in July and wait until next year, but decent teams, though still out of it by August, make themselves better through both player development and smart front office moves year round, knowing that next year could be their special year.  That is where I think the Rays are now.

Related posts:

1. Breaking News: The Rays Are Sellers, and Looking Towards 2010
2. The Rays After 40 Games
3. Rays Reflections