The Diamondbacks entered the offseason with holes to fill in both the starting rotation and in their bullpen.  After their deal with the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, they will be weaker in both areas despite taking on a significant amount of new salary.

Neither Ian Kennedy nor Daniel Schlereth is arbitration-eligible, so their exchange does not affect the Diamondbacks financially.  Edwin Jackson, on the other hand, made $2.2 million during a career year in 2009 and figures to make at least $5 million next season.  Max Scherzer, meanwhile, is going to make about $2 million in 2010 before becoming arbitration-eligible next year.  Aaron Heilman, acquired last week from the Chicago Cubs, figures to make just over $2 million himself after raking in $1.625 last season.

Essentially, the D-backs have swapped Heilman for Schlereth in the bullpen, Jackson for Scherzer as their #3 starter, and added Kennedy as their #4 starter at a net cost of around $5 million.  So the questions are whether the two exchanges favor the D-backs and whether there was a free agent pitcher of Kennedy’s caliber to be had for a $5 million price tag.

The second question is somewhat difficult to answer this early in the winter, as only the top pitchers available have signed thus far.  The only free agent starting pitchers who have signed anywhere near the $5 million price tag are Brad Penny and Rich Harden, each of whom accepted $7.5 million, one-year deals.  Obviously, those two pitchers are far superior to Ian Kennedy. If this year’s middle-tier starting pitcher market is similar to last winter’s, the D-backs could have done better than Kennedy.

Jon Garland signed with the Diamondbacks for $7.25 million last January and won 11 games, tossed over 200 innings, plus finished with an ERA just over 4.00.  Braden Looper signed with the Brewers for $5.5 million.  He went 14-7 tossed just under 200 innings, but led the league with 39 home runs allowed and finished with a 5.27 ERA.  Andy Pettitte signed for the same money as Looper did and matched him in both wins and innings pitched, but had a far more impressive 4.16 ERA.  Randy Wolf improved upon his base salary of $5 million by hitting a lot of incentives on the road towards going 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA over 214.1 innings.

There’s some variation here, but it seems likely that the D-backs would have at least been able to get a decent 200-inning workhorse in the $5 million range.  What can we expect from Ian Kennedy in 2010?  It’s difficult to say, but he certainly won’t pitch 200 innings.   Kennedy has averaged just over 100 innings in his three full professional seasons due in part to being injured with an arm aneurysm for most of last season.  When Kennedy has pitched in the minors, he’s been dominant, at 19-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 273 strikeouts in 248.2 innings.  That success has not translated to the majors, where he is 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 59.2 innings.  The biggest difference is that Kennedy has walked twice as many batters per nine innings in the majors as he did in the minors – 5.6 to 2.8.

The problem likely isn’t command, but rather a lack of confidence that his stuff can get major league hitters out in the strike zone. He has a five-pitch arsenal, but his fastball only averages about 90 MPH.  His changeup was his most effective pitch in the minors, but it doesn’t appear to be as deceptive to major league hitters.  One reason for future optimism is that Kennedy has refined his two-seam fastball, a pitch which he has only recently added to his repertoire and one that can only be further aided by pitching in a rotation alongside Brandon Webb.

“Before, I couldn’t command my two-seamer; it was always talking off the plate and no one would swing at it,” Kennedy recently told the New York Times. “Right now, it’s something to get guys to swing at and put the ball in play and save pitches.”

Kennedy turns 25 this month and figures to improve with more innings under his belt, but isn’t likely to contribute much at the big league level this season.  On the other hand, Edwin Jackson is a year older than Max Scherzer is and three years closer to free agency than is Scherzer.  His acquisition is a play for the short-term, but in fact he does not even improve the D-backs for this year.

Jackson entered the 2009 season with a 5.15 ERA and then posted a 3.62 mark for Detroit.   Although this was seemingly a breakout year for a 25-year old pitcher, it wasn’t quite as impressive as it first seems.  His ERA in the second half of the season was 5.07, so he has basically only had four good months in a big league career that has spanned 670 total innings.   While he did improve his walk and strikeout rates in 2009, most of his success came courtesy of the Detroit Tigers’ top-notch defense.  His fielding independent ERA was 4.24 as compared to Scherzer’s mark of 3.90, with Scherzer’s edge coming on the strength of of 9.2 whiffs per nine innings as opposed to Jackson’s 6.8 K/9.  Jackson also allowed 27 home runs in a spacious ballpark that favors pitchers, and is moving to the home run haven known as Chase Field.

The one possible argument for Jackson is that he may be less of an injury risk, although that argument does not hold much water.  Jackson throws slightly harder than Scherzer does, plus increased his workload in 2009 by over 30 innings from 2008.  Even more alarmingly, Jackson had a dozen starts of 110 or more pitches and three of over 120, with a high of 132.   Although Scherzer also saw an increased workload in 2009, the D-backs were relatively careful with him.  He only had three starts of over 110 pitches and never hit 120.

Similarly, the biggest question surrounding Daniel Schlereth was his health. Schlereth throws nearly as hard as Scherzer does, but lacks Scherzer’s size.  Like Kennedy, Schlereth has dominated the minor leagues (1.13 ERA in 39.2 innings) but struggled so far in the majors (5.89 in 18.1).  His command was even a concern in the minors, however, as he walked 5.2 batters per nine innings there.  As the 26th overall pick of 2008, Schlereth was rushed to the majors even more so than Kennedy.  He would have joined Clay Zavada as the D-backs’ left-handed relievers this year and might have been groomed as the closer of the future.

He is replaced by the right-handed Heilman, whom manager A.J. Hinch believes to be capable of getting left-handed hitters out.

“One thing that’s really good about him, he’s very effective against lefties with that changeup, and that’s very good to have,” Hinch said during his winter meeting press conference.  “Being able to put a guy in a full-inning reliever or four outs, which I like to do, and him being able to get left-handed hitters out is key.”

In fact, Heilman’s career batting average against is four points lower against left-handed hitters than it is against righties.  His OPS against, however, is 66 points higher against lefties than it is against right-handers.  Heilman can certainly hold his own against left-handed hitters, but with Schlereth and Scott Maine both gone, there will be a lot of unfavorable late-inning matchups for the Diamondbacks unless the team acquires another
southpaw.

Unfortunately, it is much more difficult to find a quality left-handed bullpen arm than it is to find a right-hander, and there is no doubt that Schlereth has more upside than the 31-year old Heilman does.  Worse yet, it sounds as though the Diamondbacks may be content not to add another left-hander to their bullpen.  Similarly, the acquisition of Kennedy and increased expenditure on Heilman and Jackson may lull the organization into believing that it does not need to add another starting pitcher for depth.  Surely, losing Webb for the 2009 season taught the organization a lesson about the need for depth in the rotation, right?

Even if the team does acquire another starter and another southpaw for the bullpen, this deal still makes the team worse for both 2010 and beyond.  The real kicker is that the team has been made worse despite adding about $5 million to its 2010 payroll.  For a team with limited financial resources, this could be a devastating blow.

Related posts:

1. The Mark Redman Award Effect: Edwin Jackson
2. Big News From Day 4 of the Baseball Winter Meetings
3. Updates From The Winter Meetings: 2 Days In

It’s really hard for me in the midst of a brutal

I posted my thoughts on Derek Lee and his contributions to the Cubs season in my last post and I can not reiterate enough what a valuable player he was during a rough year. Now on my return trip to the Baseball Reflections landscape I wanted to play a little game I call: Good Idea / Bad Idea. The game is simple, and unfortunately for you, I am the only one who can play until the comments section. I’ll just jump right in, I think you’ll get the hang of it pretty quick.

Good Idea: Make a move for Curtis Granderson

What an entrance Tom Ricketts could make if he were able to pull a deal off for a top of the lineup guy with pop in his bat and speed on the bases. Granderson is just 28 years old and the Tigers are in some financial distress, the only question is if the Cubs will be willing to part with or if they even have the prospects needed to make a deal like this. You can forget a Milton Bradley to Detroit scenario, it’s not happening. So it would be up to Hendry to decide if he is willing to part with players like Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox or even Starlin Castro (not likely). Another nugget: Granderson is from Lynwood.

Bad Idea: Bringing Back Milton

I would hope that this one is a no brainer. Milton, while not the only problem in Chicago last season, was one of the biggest. Not only did he disappoint on the field, but apparently he was loathed in the clubhouse by most.

One of the things the Cubs of 2008 had was chemistry. All that went out the door when Uncle Milty came to town. I heard a recent report that players actually applauded when informed of his suspension from the team. The Cubs would be wise to do whatever it takes to rid themselves of this guy, and I think they will.

Good Idea: Move Ryan Theriot to second base

I like Ryan, he’s scrappy (do we ever say that about non-white players, I suppose that’s another article), but the guy needs to go over to second base. There are two good reasons for this: 1) he does not have the range or the arm to play short the way the Cubs need him to, though D. Lee does make a lot of infielders look better. 2) the door would then be open for a real shortstop, maybe even a veteran who they could use for one season.

Who am I thinking of? Well there are two names that come to mind, Miguel Tejada and Marco Scutaro. Scutaro had a career year in 2009, batting .282 with 12 HRs and 60 RBI. Tejada, who is on the downside of his career, and who is a Cubs nemesis, is 35 but hit .315 with 12 HRs and drove in 86. I would like to see either playing in a Cubs uniform, but I won’t hold my breath.

Bad Idea: Make Kosuke Fukudome your CF

I don’t think the Cubs have any intention of doing this, but they need to find a switch hitting or left handed OF to play center to avoid this. I have already made my case for Granderson in CF, but that may not be a possibility. Another player that Hendry liked in years past was Marlon Byrd. Byrd was another career year guy in 2008. His 20 HRs and 89 RBI were both career highs, and with Rudy Jaramillo now on the Cubs bench, this could be the answer in CF. He doesn’t answer the lefty concern, but a move for him would put Fukudome back in right, the place where he belongs.

Good Idea: Let Rich Harden and Reed Johnson go

Two more players that I really like. Unfortunately Rich is a constant health concern and his inability to go deep in games really hurt the Cubs in 2009. His talent level is obviously there but he leaves too big of a question mark in the rotation.

Reed Johnson is so white and grindy, and if he had been healthy he might have fit well in the Cubs plans for ’09. For 2010 the Cubs must move on and the asking price for Johnson might be too high for what would most likely be a platoon role in CF.

Bad Idea: Staring directly in to the face of Sammy Sosa

Seriously? What is the deal with that? I was worried that if I looked at that picture too long I was going to lose my sight.

So those are some thoughts on the Cubs for late November. I am sure there are others and hopefully you will share your thoughts.

Related posts:

1. As the Cubs Roll Into August…
2. Cubs Reflections on Being in First Place
3. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL

Natalie Niekro threw out the first pitch at the Houston Astros game on September 13, 2009. She will be throwing out the first pitch at three Arizona Fall League games between October 26-31 as part of “Aneurysm Awareness Week” at the Arizona Fall League.

Unlike the deceptive and tricky pitch that her father used to record 221 major league victories, Natalie Niekro’s goal for the Joe Niekro Foundation is very straightforward and simple. She is determined to turn the tragedy of his death from a brain aneurysm three years ago into a positive by using his memory and celebrity to increase awareness about and funding for brain aneurysm research.

Following on the heals of the foundation’s successful initial fundraiser earlier this year, the Joe Niekro Foundation is continuing its mission of “Knuckling Up for Aneurysm Research” by teaming up with the Arizona Fall League to raise money and increase awareness.

The Fall League has designated the week of October 26 as “Aneurysm Awareness Week.”  As a result, every strikeout recorded that week by a pitcher from one of the seven teams that Joe Niekro played for during his 22-year career in the majors will result in a donation to the foundation.

“So far we have three sponsors that each will donate $36 per strikeout,” Natalie Niekro said. “The number 36 is important to us because that was my dad’s number.”

In addition, Natalie, a marketing executive in Scottsdale, and her husband, Luke Woosley, will match each donation.

Joe Niekro began his major league career in 1967 with the Chicago Cubs and went 24-18 with the Cubs before being traded to the San Diego Padres early in the 1969 season. He also pitched for the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves before landing in Houston at the start of the 1975 season.

Joe Niekro began his 22-year major league career with the Chicago Cubs in 1967.

It was during his 11 seasons in Houston that Joe Niekro became an All-Star.

Like his brother, Hall of Famer Phil Niekro, Joe used the fluttering knuckleball to frustrate hitters.

After being used both as a starter and reliever throughout his career, in 1979 Niekro became the ace of the Houston staff and finished second in the Cy Young Award balloting with a 21-11 record and 3.00 ERA.

The following season, he won 20 games as the Astros reached the National League Championship Series for the first time in team history.

After winning 144 games for the Astros, Niekro was traded to the New York Yankees in September 1985. Though the trade ended his long tenure with the Astros, it allowed Joe to be reunited with his brother just in time to watch Phil record his 300th career victory on October 6, 1985.

Joe was traded to the Minnesota Twins in 1987 and was a member of their World Series Championship team during that season. He finished his career with the Twins in 1988.

Joe Niekro won 144 of his 221 career victories with the Houston Astros. He finished second in the 1979 Cy Young Award voting.

The 539 career victories by the Niekro brothers are the most by a brother tandem in baseball history.

Following his retirement, Niekro worked with a number of aspiring professional baseball players, including future Boston Red Sox hurler Tim Wakefield, who learned the knuckleball from Niekro.

He also worked with his son, Lance, who played college baseball at Florida Southern College and spent parts of four seasons with the San Francisco Giants.

On October 26, 2006, Niekro suffered a brain aneurysm and passed away the following day.

“Aneurysm Awareness Week” in the Arizona Fall League will coincidentally start three years to the day of his attack.

During the week, information brochures and public address announcements will help increase awareness about aneurysms and the foundation.

“Steve Cobb [Executive Director of the Arizona Fall League] has been very supportive,” Natalie said. “This is a great opportunity to increase awareness about the foundation and brain aneurysms both with the general public, but also within baseball.”

In addition, Natalie will be throwing out the first pitch at three games. Those games are: 10/26 – Peoria Sports Complex – 6:35 p.m.; 10/30 – Scottsdale Stadium – 6:35 p.m., and; 10/31 – Good year -12:35 p.m.

While most of us might be a little intimidated by the thought of throwing out the first pitch at multiple baseball games, Natalie approaches it just as you would expect from the daughter of a major leaguer.

In fact, when she threw out the first pitch at the Houston Astros game in September, Natalie was ready to throw the family special.

“Lance Berkman was catching the pitch and said I could move up to throw if I needed to,” Natalie recalled. “My dad taught me the knuckleball when I was three. I told him I would be okay.”

Natalie was happy to report that the pitch was a strike down the middle that “even fluttered a little.”

In addition to raising funds for the foundation, Natalie also hopes the week will assist in her mission to make people aware that brain aneurysms are common, deadly, and treatable.

“One in 15 people have a brain aneurysm,” she said. “They are treatable, but most people don’t know they have one until it is too late.

“Our mission is to raise enough money that they can develop an affordable detection method.”

She will have a chance to take the message to a national audience on November 7th, which would have been her father’s 65th birthday, thanks to the MLB Network. The Network will be televising the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Game that night and Natalie has been invited to be a guest in the broadcast booth during the game.

Natalie’s passion and persistence has been helpful in getting the Joe Niekro Foundation off the ground and making a difference in a relatively short period of time.

The foundation was originally scheduled to hold its first fundraising event in Houston in September 2008. Unfortunately, Hurricane Ike hit the Galveston-Houston area that week and the event had to be postponed.

Natalie Niekro and the Niekro Foundation was recognized before the Astros game with Pittsburgh on September 13, 2009.

Undeterred, Natalie kept moving forward and on July 31, 2009 the First Annual Knuckle Ball took place at Minute Maid Park. The formal event was a huge success as it raised $450,000 for aneurysm research.

Natalie is already planning for the 2010 event.

She is hopeful that the partnership with the Arizona Fall League will lead to additional opportunities with the Cactus League in Arizona as well as with other entities within Major League Baseball.

Because her father played so long and with so many teams, his legacy has touched many organizations and individuals across baseball and made it easier for Natalie to make contacts and leverage opportunities.

In addition, having a Hall of Fame pitcher for an uncle also has helped Natalie increase her Rolodex. While she does not anticipate having another event similar to the Knuckle Ball in other cities, she is hopeful that eventually the foundation will be able to forge connections with all the teams for which her father played.

“I’m very pleased with what we have done in a short time and appreciate all the people who have helped us,” Natalie said, “but I know there is much more that we can do.”

If you are interested in becoming a sponsor for the Arizona Fall League “Aneurysm Awareness Week”, please write to nniekro@joeniekrofoundation.org. To simply donate to the cause please visit the website at www.joeniekrofoundation.org.

Dean Hybl is a supporter of A Glove of Their Own, the award winning children’s book that teaches Paying it Forward through baseball. Visit the site and purchase using donor code JNF636 The Joe Niekro Foundation as $3. from each purchase will go directly to the JNF.

Related posts:

1. Not In A League Of Their Own Anymore
2. Astros Attendance By the Numbers
3. Arizona Wants Ex-Diamondbacks Back

What can you offer up about the Cubs that hasn’t already been said? The Cubs have been a major disappointment in 2009 and yet, following Wednesday’s game they only find themselves 5.5 games out of first place. Yes, they also trail four other teams besides the Colorado Rockies, and yes they don’t even resemble in the least a playoff team, but that glimmer of hope is something that Cubs fans have grown accustomed to holding on to.

For the purposes of this post, which is my first as the resident Cubs voice on Baseball Reflections, I wanted to focus not on the negative, which is plentiful, but rather on the positive, of which there is little.

The Cubs of 2009 will become part of Cubs lore, much like the goat, the black cat, 1984, Alex Gonzalez (you know what I’m talking about) and all that crap. They will be remembered for what they couldn’t do rather than what they could, and that is so Cubs-like. They will be remembered for their contracts, their salaries and their failures.

And then there is Derrek Lee.

Where would the Cubs be without Derrek Lee? If you think things are bad now, picture what they could have been like if Lee had not stepped in and played the way he did this season. When Aramis Ramirez went down any number of Cubs could have kicked their game into another gear and pulled the Cubs through, but none did, except Derrek Lee.

Ramirez went down on May 8th in Milwaukee while Lee was battling an injury himself. At the time the Cubs were 16-13 and Lee was hitting just .208 on the young season (and you know who you are if you called for Micah Hoffpauir). When Derrek returned on May 12th he immediately began to contribute like the leader of a team should, hitting .300 for the remainder of the month of May. In June, when the Cubs as a team hit just .233, Lee hit .333 with six home runs and 20 RBI. Lee followed June with a .295 average and nine home runs and 27 RBI in July. In August it was .318/6/22.

Looking into Derrek’s splits only makes one appreciate him more. The Cubs have struggled this season with runners in scoring position hitting under .250 in those spots. In those same situations Derrek is hitting .303 with nine homers and 68 driven in. He is hitting .287 with runners on base and if their loaded watch out. He is not quite Pujols like, but his .615 average, two Grand Slams and 24 RBI are enough to make opposing pitchers nervous.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

It is more than the numbers when it comes to Derrek Lee though. He also provides leadership with his demeanor. While Carlos Zambrano is busy accosting Gatorade coolers and breaking bats over his knees, and Milton Bradley is occupied with the fans, Lee has remained a rock. As turbulent as 2009 has been, Lee hasn’t once made headlines with his words or actions, other than when they are positive.

It is easy to take for granted a guy like Derrek Lee who has been with the Cubs for six seasons now. He isn’t flashy. You won’t get a great sound bite from him. He hasn’t led the league in any offensive categories since his break out year of 2005. He hasn’t won any major awards, and he probably won’t this season either. It would be wise if Cubs fans took notice, in a year as forgettable as this, of what they have in a player like Derrek Lee. You would have a hard time convincing me that any player in baseball has done more for his team than Derrek Lee has in 2009 for the Chicago Cubs.

Related posts:

1. The Top 10 Fantasy 1B of 2009
2. Playing Good Idea/Bad Idea with the Cubs Offseason
3. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL

We will be raffling off 9 MLB team keychains. There will be links below to the WholesaleKeychain.com page of the 9 teams (these links will open up in a new tab or page) selected for this raffle.

There will be at least 1 team representing all 6 divisions! I looked up the Baseball Reflections.com demographics to find the cities that have the most Baseball Reflections readership, per the AW Stats (our site stats counter).

The winners will have their choice of keychains from that team’s page and if it is an engravable keychain, WholesaleKeychain.com will engrave 3 lines up to 11 characters per line for you, too!

So, without further ado, here are the teams:

AL

East:

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Central:

Cleveland Indians

West:

Texas Rangers

NL

East:

New York Mets

Central:

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

West:

LA Dodgers

SF Giants

Here’s how this will work: For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win 1 of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion above! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section on the screen you make your donation from.

You can make donations for this raffle by clicking on this button below:

If you have any questions, please feel free to shoot me an e-mail at peter@baseballreflections.com.

But, if you don’t want to wait to buy a MLB keychain (others, too), please check out WholesaleKeychain.com and use the promotion code: breflections for 10% off your purchase now through the end of August!

Related posts:

1. A WholesaleKeychains.com Giveaway c/o Baseball Reflections
2. Reminder: MLB Keychain Raffle
3. Baseball Reflection’s MLB Keychain Raffle

We will be raffling off 9 MLB team keychains. There will be links below to the WholesaleKeychain.com page of the 9 teams (these links will open up in a new tab or page) selected for this raffle.

There will be at least 1 team representing all 6 divisions! I looked up the Baseball Reflections.com demographics to find the cities that have the most Baseball Reflections readership, per the AW Stats (our site stats counter).

The winners will have their choice of keychains from that team’s page and if it is an engravable keychain, WholesaleKeychain.com will engrave 3 lines up to 11 characters per line for you, too!

So, without further ado, here are the teams:

AL

East:

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Central:

Cleveland Indians

West:

Texas Rangers

NL

East:

New York Mets

Central:

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

West:

LA Dodgers

SF Giants

Here’s how this will work: For each dollar donated to Baseball Reflections between Sunday, 8/9/09 and Sunday, 8/23/09 you will receive a virtual raffle ticket to win 1 of the 9 MLB keychains listed in the promotion above! Please specify which team keychain you are buying a raffle ticket for in the notes section on the screen you make your donation from.

You can make donations for this raffle by clicking on this button below:

If you have any questions, please feel free to shoot me an e-mail at peter@baseballreflections.com.

But, if you don’t want to wait to buy a MLB keychain (others, too), please check out WholesaleKeychain.com and use the promotion code: breflections for 10% off your purchase now through the end of August!

Related posts:

1. A WholesaleKeychains.com Giveaway c/o Baseball Reflections
2. Reminder: Keychain Raffle Has Only 8 Days Left!
3. Baseball Reflection’s MLB Keychain Raffle

In a month in which Roy Halladay’s name occupied the airwaves 24/7, and in which Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, and Jarrod Washburn were all traded to contenders, the Cubs came away from the trading deadline with . . . Tom Gorzelanny? A guy who was solid but not great for the Pirates in 2007, and split time in 2008 and 2009 with the Pirates’ Triple-A club. Are we supposed to believe that the Cubs hope to win the NL Central with a guy who wasn’t good enough to break the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation?

The funny part is that the Cubs actually gave up a guy in Kevin Hart who has had some success at the major league level in 2009.

Who knows – perhaps Gorzelanny is a good pitcher from a bad team who will improve mightily on a winning team like the Cubs. I don’t think that will be the case, but who knows? On the bright side, Gorzelanny has dominated Triple-A since 2006, and he is a lefty where Hart was a righty.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The other big move made by the Cubs was the acquisition of Toronto Blue Jays cast-off B.J. Ryan, who despite being owed more than $15 million on his contract was released in June. But who knows, this could work out great as well. Thirty-three year old relievers with bad mechanics two-and-a-half years removed from Tommy John surgery often work out great, right?

Chicago Cubs apologists will be quick to point out that the Cubs have been hamstrung by the fact that their parent, the Tribune Company, is currently in bankruptcy proceedings. This may be. Nevertheless, it is questionable not only whether the moves the Cubs are making will improve the team, but whether the moves may actually be making the team worse. It remains to be seen.

The good news for the Cubs is that July was their hottest month of the season so far. During the past month the Cubs won 18 of 27 games, including 6 out of 8 on the road. The bad news is that the Cubs played 19 of their 27 games at home in July, where they are a better team that they are on the road. In August, the Cubs play 16 out of 29 games on the road, and will have only 2 days off. Plus, while the Cubs benefited from a weak schedule in July, in August they face off against Florida, Colorado, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and the Mets. It will be a grueling month.

On the other hand, if a month from now the Cubs are still within 2 games of first place in the NL Central, then they may be primed to make another move or two before the August 31st deadline, whereas should they slip in the standings they’ll know that such a move would be futile. That is probably a good position to be in.

Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir Update

Wanna hear something weird? Jake Fox currently has a 141 OPS+ and a .955 OPS, but he has performed significantly better on the road than he has at Wrigley Field, to the tune of .275/.328/.529/.857 at home and .339/.365/.679/1.044 on the road. Anyone who can put up those numbers on the road playing for any team is likely the real deal. Though it is a relatively small sample size, this is very good news for what has been one of the few bright spots in the Cubs’ lineup in 2009.

Humorously (or should I say, humorlessly), Fox has seen his playing time limited of late for the preposterous reason that, with Geovanny Soto on the DL, Fox is the team’s emergency catcher and must be kept available in case Koyie Hill gets injured. Any chance we can make Milton Bradley the emergency catcher?

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

While Jake Fox has been bringing it for the Cubs on the road, Hoffpauir has not. He is solid at home, with an .887 OPS and a .278 batting average, but on the road he is awful, to the tune of .575 and .204. Ouch. Plus, he has 3 walks and 29 strikeouts on the road. Ooof.

I am beginning to wonder about the Cubs farm system and its ability to produce major league hitters. Seriously, when was the last time a Cubs prospect became a bona fide major league hitter? Let’s count backwards the number of Cubs major league prospects who failed to pan out – Micah Hoffpauir (at least for now), Geovanny Soto (one year does not out a pan), Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Corey Patterson, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Jason DuBois, Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill, Augue Ojeda, Roosevelt Brown, Kevin Orie, Gary Matthews, Jr., Julio Zuleta, Jason Smith, Brant Brown, Chad Meyers, Robin Jennings, Jose Nieves, Brooks Kieschnick, Doug Glanville, Kevin Roberson, Mike Hubbard, Rey Sanchez, Derrick May, Rick Wilkins, Doug Dascenzo, Hector Villaneuva, Gary Scott, Alex Arias, Dwight Smith, Jerome Walton, Damon Berryhill, Greg Smith, Rick Wrona, Joe Girardi, Earl Cunningham, Ty Griffin, Mark Grace.

Okay, I wasn’t expecting that – I figured that the list would be long, but I did not expect to have to go all the way back to Mark Grace. Is that it? Has it been 20 years since the Cubs developed a star major league hitter? Amazingly, the Cubs drafted Mark Grace in 1985, the same year they drafted Rafael Palmeiro. So it has been almost 25 years since the Cubs drafted and developed a star major league hitter. How is that possible? Something is seriously wrong!

I guess, theoretically, the Cubs could take credit for developing Sammy Sosa. But Sosa was signed by the Rangers and traded to the White Sox before he was traded to the Cubs as a 23 year old, so it would be hard for them to claim credit for his development when he was in baseball for six years before joining the Cubs.

Just to complete the exercise, let’s go through Major League Baseball and take a look at a random sampling of homegrown star hitters from each franchise:

Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Scott Rolen, Jimmy Rollins

New York Mets: David Wright, Jose Reyes

Florida Marlins: Miguel Cabrera

Washington Nationals: Vlad Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, Jose Vidro

Atlanta Braves: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal, Brian McCann

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols,

Houston Astros: Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio

Pittsburgh Pirates: Aramis Ramirez

Cincinnati Reds: Adam Dunn

Milwaukee Brewers: Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney

Arizona Diamondbacks: Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton

Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitski, Matt Holliday

San Diego Padres: Jason Bay

San Francisco Giants: Pedro Feliz, Pablo Sandoval

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, Jorge Posada

Boston Red Sox: Jeff Bagwell, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury

Tampa Bay Rays: Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Aubrey Huff, Evan Longoria

Toronto Blue Jays: Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells

Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis

Chicago White Sox: Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko

Detroit Tigers: Curtis Granderson,

Minnesota Twins: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer,

Cleveland Indians: Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Brian Giles, Richie Sexson

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon, Joe Randa

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Darin Erstad, Jim Edmonds, Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon, Garrett Anderson

Texas Rangers: Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Travis Hafner

Seattle Mariners: Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez, Raul Ibanez

Gee whiz. It is one thing to say it has been a long time since the Cubs developed a good major league hitter, but taking even a cursory glance at what all the other teams have done in recent years reveals just what a feat this has been. Do the Cubs simply have the worst farm system in baseball over the last 20 years? It looks like only the Giants and Pirates systems have done even close to as bad of a job.

This is a shocking development.

Indeed, when one looks at recent Chicago Cubs stars, it is a list of hitters acquired from other teams almost exclusively. Consider: Derrek Lee (acquired from the Marlins), Aramis Ramirez (Pirates), Sammy Sosa (White Sox), Juan Pierre (Marlins), Alex Gonzalez (Blue Jays), Andre Dawson (Expos), and Ryne Sandberg (Phillies).
I’ll tell you what this tells me – if the Cubs have star offensive prospects in their minor league system and they think they can use them to acquire established hitters or pitching help, they should do so. And whether or not they win the division in 2009 may depend on whether or not they heed history’s advice.

Related posts:

1. Cubs Reflections on Being in First Place
2. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

Despite all my nay-saying and doom-daying, the Chicago Cubs woke up on July 27th and found themselves in first place in the NL Central.  Outside of any performance by the Cubs, here are five reasons which this has happened:

5.         The St. Louis Cardinals have no hitting. A month into the season, the Cardinals looked to have five legitimate, major-league-starter caliber outfielders.  I even joked that maybe one of them could play first base.  Now the Cardinals are trying to give these guys away (literally – they just traded away Chris Duncan, the son of their own pitching coach).  The Cardinals have Albert Pujols and not much else on offense, though Ryan Ludwick is coming around, and it has undermined their pitching staff.  Despite having three dynamite starters, the Cards staff’s won-loss percentage does not reflect their dominance.

4.         The Milwaukee Brewers have no pitching. The Brewers have discovered this season that you can have two of the premier hitters in baseball (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder), some talented support, and one of the greatest closers in baseball history in a renaissance season, and it won’t do anything to cover the sin of a bad rotation.  After Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have four below-average pitchers in Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush (as much as it pains me to say that), Braden Looper, and Manny Parra.  If you don’t have starters, you aren’t in the conversation.

3.         The Cincinnati Reds have no coaching. Dusty Baker has taken a lot of criticism for a lot of things, but none so prescient as that leveled by Larry Dobrow of cbssportsline.com last year when, referring to Baker’s infatuation with Corey Patterson, he noted that Baker cannot accept the fact that speedy defensive minded centerfielders are not always the best leadoff men.  Baker has made this point critically obvious in 2009, as he has refused to notice that Willy Taveras is a terrible leadoff hitter.  To be fair, Baker doesn’t have a lot of options with this lineup period, but he has made the least of the situation.  And frankly, everything else falls in from there.

2.         The Houston Astros have no Lance. Or at least haven’t had Lance Berkman on track so far this season.  But that seems to be changing – Lance’s OPS has been over 1.000 in each of the last two months, and his OBP is over .500 for July.  The Astros lineup revolves around this guy, so when he is off, they are off.  Now that he is back, could the Astros be making a run?

1.         The Pittsburgh Pirates have no chance. Economists have a term called stagflation, in which there is high inflation without economic growth.  In theory, this is worse than a recession or inflation, and can be much more difficult to break out of than either of the alternatives.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a similar situation – they aren’t contenders, which makes them sellers approaching the trade deadline, but they also don’t have enough talent to bring in top name prospects from contending teams.  So they are stuck.

It would appear, thus far, if my theory is correct, that the Cubs are in first place in the NL Central purely based upon the failings of the other teams in the division.  To a certain extent this is correct.  The Brewers, Astros and Cardinals are all either underachieving compared to the production of their players, or underperforming compared to the talent level of their teams.  And Chicago has been the beneficiary.

Nevertheless, some credit must be given to the Cubs.   Credit must start with Derrek Lee, whom I have been deriding all of this season and most of last season.  Lee has stepped up his production dramatically in 2009, has already matched last year’s homerun total, and is hitting into way fewer double plays.  But lest we get excited, he is still a home-field hero – he has a .757 road OPS and 15 of his 20 homeruns have come at home.  He is better, but let’s not go celebrating to vehemently.

Aramis Ramirez also appears to be ready to contribute again, after an extended stint on the disabled list.  He is hitting over .300 with an OPS over .900 in July, and will be a crucial factor in the second half.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The real story of the Chicago Cubs fall from grace in 2009 has been the horrendous play of Alfonso Soriano and Geovanny Soto.  For Soto’s part, he looked like he was starting to turn things around before getting hurt earlier this month.  He is a young guy and you might expect inconsistency.  But for Soriano, the dropoff has been stunningly inexplicable.  Soriano is the type of player that playoff teams have to be able to count on, a guy who can be penciled in for a certain level of performance, and he simply has not given it in 2009.  Despite a recent return to form (.342/.383/.553/.935 in the month of July), Soriano is still on pace for the worst season of his career.  Forget Derrek Lee – if the Cubs are going to the playoffs, Soriano has to be one of the top 15 outfielders in the National League.

Complain as we may about the bewilderingly inconsistent Cubs’ offense, the pitching staff is quietly having a good season.  The encouraging news is that the Cubs have been led thus far by Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano.  Rich Harden is actually having the worst season of the five starters, and his ERA is only 4.55.  If Harden can get it together and the Cubs offense can get these guys to the playoffs, the pitching should (should) be in a position to take the club deep.

Cheekiness aside, the Chicago Cubs really are in first place in the NL Central division by happenstance at this point.  They are lucky to be there – their 52-45 record is the second worst among division leaders, and would be good for fourth place in the NL West and AL East – but they don’t have to relinquish the position.  If their top performers can perform the way they are supposed to and their second tier talent can continue to produce, they have a real honest shot at fending off the Astros, Cards and Brewers.

Chicago Cubs Notes:

- The Cajun Connection, Cubs infielders Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot, who played together at LSU, got so much press in the pre-season I wondered whether these guys had retained their own PR firm.  As a Cubs fan from Louisiana, I love these guys and wish them all the best, but they have struggled at the plate in 2009.  But, look at the bright-side – Aaron Miles, who came to camp to compete for a middle infielder spot, has a 30 OPS+, and an OPS of .500.

- Cubs pitchers are second in baseball in strikeouts, but third in baseball in walks.

- No Cubs pitcher with 25 or more innings pitched has given up over a hit per inning this season.  They are third in the NL in this category behind LA and San Francisco, which is remarkable – both the Dodgers and the Giants have outstanding pitching staffs and play in pitcher friendly parks, while the Cubs have a solid but not great staff and play in a hitter friendly park.  The Cubs defense has to be part of this (maybe I was too quick to dawg the Cajun Connection).

- The Cubs offense has the fourth most homeruns and the fourth lowest batting average in the National League.  Homeruns you can fake – all it takes is a small ballpark.  Batting average can’t be faked.  This is not a great hitting team.

- The Chicago Cubs are the sixth oldest team in baseball, behind the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Astros.  Here’s the thing – the Phillies have Matt Stairs (41) and Jamie Moyer (46), which throws off their average age.  The Red Sox have Tim Wakefield (42), John Smoltz (42), and Takashi Saito (39) tilting their age.  The Yankees have seven guys aged 35 or older, many of whom are future Hall of Famers, and the Astros have a host of elder-statesmen veterans.  What do the Cubs have?  Their oldest player is Chad Fox (38), and then the next oldest guy is 33.  This is just, across the board, an old team.

- Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle pitched a perfect game last week in which he struck out six batters.  This is destined to spark a debate amongst Chicagoans as to the most dominant pitching performance in Chicago Baseball History – Buehrle’s perfecto or Wood’s 20 strikeout one-hitter on May 6, 1998.  The only two base-runners in Wood’s game came on a hit and a hit batsman.  Ironically, a great play by DeWayne Wise saved Buehrle’s game, while a lousy play marred Wood’s game – a miscue by third baseman Kevin Orie which could (should, by some accounts) have been called an error.  For my part, I’ll take the guy against whom 20 of 27 batters couldn’t make contact with the ball.

Related posts:

1. As the Cubs Roll Into August…
2. The Cubs Are Slumping and on the DL
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

I have a theory about Carlos Zambrano that I have stated repeatedly, and I will do so again here: Carlos Zambrano is pretty close to becoming the greatest pitcher in the history of Wrigley Field. There have simply been very few pitchers who have sustained success over several years pitching in Wrigley. The best pitcher is probably Ferguson Jenkins, and Zambrano is probably second. Already. At the age of 28.

Fact is, Wrigley Field chews up pitchers, and unfortunately for Big Z, I think it is chewing him up as we speak. His best year was 2004, his best three years were 2004-2006, and he currently appears to be in Year Three of a three year decline. But I don’t blame Carlos, and I wished he’d get more credit than he does. I would imagine it is awfully hard to get on a roll when you have to pitch at Wrigley Field.

The rest of the staff is suffering much the way Zambrano is, and they are currently posting classic 21st Century Cubs numbers – second in the league in strikeouts, third in the league in homeruns allowed. Throw in Rich Harden’s latest trip to the DL – premised upon a “no, really, it’s not my shoulder, I’m just a little sore around the knees!” that no one believes – and the Cubs’ pitching staff looks like it could be in for a bruising.

The only consolation for the Cubs in the bullpen is that the jettisoned Kerry Wood is pitching horribly in Cleveland, so he probably wouldn’t be doing better than Carlos Marmol or Kevin Gregg. Gregg can barely keep the ball in the park, and while Marmol strikes out over a batter per inning he almost walks that many as well. Wrigley Field will simply chew guys up.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

At the end of the day, though, the Cubs pitchers are pitching well enough to win ballgames if their offense would show up, but it simply hasn’t. The Cubs currently have several players hitting unimpressively – Alfonso Soriano, Micah Hoffpauir, Ryan Theriot – and several players hitting terribly – Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto, Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot, Milton Bradley. The Cubs’ two best hitters at this point are Aramis Ramirez, who is hurt, and Kosuke Fukudome, who got off to a fast start last year before crashing down to earth. All would appear to be lost for this squad on offense.

So what does this team need to do to improve? I don’t know, but Alfonso Soriano recently suggested he would be up to playing second base if it helped get Hoffpauir more at-bats in the outfield. I am not sure having a guy who was terrible at second base when he last played there five years ago is the answer to the Cubs problems.

I am also not terribly sure there is a lot to be done for this team by way of trade. I think the word is out on Derrek Lee at this point, and no one is going to rid the Cubs of his bat. Milton Bradley has only just signed what already looks like a terrible $30 million deal, and the answer to the Cubs pitching woes is not likely to be trading away the few talented pitchers they have.

The pity of it all is that the Cubs find themselves with a bunch of over-priced veterans at a time when they should be playing talented youngsters that they’ve developed. While the team pays its absurd, underachieving Bradley-Fukudome-Soriano outfield a combined $40 million, minor league leftfielder Jake Fox is hitting .423 with a 1.389 OPS and 17 homeruns and 50 RBI in 40 games so far this season with no hope of being called up. As Derrek Lee toils away for the Cubs, his career all but over, to the tune of $13.25 million, Micah Hoffpauir can’t get on the field.

The Chicago Cubs have somehow become the New York Yankees.

There are some lessons to be learned here, and some potential upside. Fact is, one of the Cubs top two starters and one of their top three hitters are out right now – any team would have trouble in that situation. And the pitching, though struggling, can improve if it can simply get control of itself. Despite the fact that the Cubs have given up the seventh most homeruns in the major leagues, they have allowed the third fewest hits in the majors. This means that the defense is doing its job, and this team is built to succeed if the pitching staff doesn’t kill itself.

Another strange statistic for the pitching staff is K/BB ratio. The Cubs currently lead major league baseball in strikeouts per inning, which is impressive given the Giants’ and Marlins’ staffs. However, the Cubs have given up the seventh most bases on balls in all of baseball as well.

The Chicago Cubs have become the team-pitching version of Nolan Ryan.

Basically, the Cubs are giving up runs and losing ballgames because of defense-independent statistics. This simply has to stop. Whether we were all wrong about Geovanny Soto, or Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild is losing his touch, these guys have got to stop walking batters and stop giving up long balls.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As for the hitting, well, as discussed above, the Cubs are not currently putting their best offense on the field. Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox should be playing everyday at this point, and Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot, and Milton Bradley should not be. Unlike the pitching staff, the offense does not seem loaded with talented offensive players right now, and that is unfortunately unlikely to change in the near future. Unless teams are looking to acquire Milton Bradley and Derrek Lee, which they aren’t.

Add on top of all this the fact that three NL Central teams look to have come to play in 2009, and it is beginning to look like a long summer for the Cubbies.

Related posts:

1. As the Cubs Roll Into August…
2. Cubs Reflections on Being in First Place
3. What to Expect From The Cubs in 2009

After a promising April, which saw the Cardinals sit at 16-7 and on top of the NL Central by 3 ½ games, everything was right with the world. Albert Pujols was mashing, the four outfielders were rotating in and out and being productive, third base was covered by Rookie of the Month Brian Barden and equally effective Joe Thurston, and the starting rotation was keeping the team in games. About the only flaw was the bullpen, which had a nasty habit of spontaneously combusting like they had in 2008.

So after this bright and sunny month, Cardinal Nation was feeling good. Then it entered the small, dilapidated house known as May and the horror began.

Through May 19, the Cardinals are 6-10. That comfy lead has vanished and the Redbirds trail in the division by three games, though they are still tied for second. The offense that averaged 5.8 runs per game in April has plummeted to 3.5 in May. The pitching staff that had a combined ERA of 3.65 in the first month is at 4.82 in the second, and that latter number comes after Joel Pineiro threw a complete-game shutout.

The biggest news over the last month has been injuries. Chris Carpenter pulled his oblique muscle back in April and was out an extended period of time. Rick Ankiel thought he was Superman as he ran head-on into the Busch Stadium wall, requiring a DL stint. Ryan Ludwick pulled a hamstring going after a ball which forced him onto the disabled list as well.

With Ankiel and Ludwick down, coupled with the season-long absence of Troy Glaus, over 50% of 2008’s offense was sitting on the bench. Without Pujols, who has struggled some (for him) since Ankiel went down, the offense would be in even worse shape than it is.

On the mound, the starters stopped giving quality outings about the same time the bullpen finally flipped the switch and became effective. Todd Wellemeyer has had a couple of strong outings, but when he’s gone bad, he’s gone real bad and unfortunately that’s been the more likely result of him taking the ball.

Adam Wainwright looked nothing like the ace he was expected to be. For a while, his command issues and large numbers of hits allowed didn’t come into play as he was able to work out of jams. However, the law of averages says that couldn’t continue indefinitely and he was rocked for seven runs in six innings against Philadelphia and four in six against Cincinnati to start the month.

When the Cardinals have gotten a lead in the late innings, though, Ryan Franklin has been there to lock it down. Franklin has nailed down nine saves, only blowing one (a game the Cardinals came back to win) and has allowed only two runs (both in the blown save) all year long. Whether this is an adjustment he has made to the closing role after last season’s shaky performance or a case where the teams will eventually hit him remains to be seen, but the results are positive at the moment.

This horrific month did come with a silver lining, the possibility that there was hope on the other side of the door.  Starting with Joel Pineiro’s start on May 19, the Cardinals put on an exceptional show of pitching.  The entire team posted a 0.95 ERA during the seven game span ending on Memorial Day with Chris Carpenter working on a perfect game before the Cards lost in extra innings 1-0.  Pineiro threw a shutout and two other games were combined shutouts.  The worst game in this stretch was a three-run, seven-inning performance by Pineiro, which was good enough to be among the best of the month before this stretch.

The suspense is still there, though.  The Cardinals still have not scored on a regular basis and have lost the last two games in this pitching stretch.  The offense has to come around or there will be more months like May.  Here’s hoping this horror movie doesn’t have a sequel.

Related posts:

1. For The Cardinals, It Was A Stuttering September
2. The Cardinals Are Picking Up Steam
3. The Cardinals: Two Weeks in April