Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Martin was the No. 1 drafted catcher in most leagues this year, but has failed to live up to those expectations.

The 26-year-old is currently on pace to set career lows in HR (five), RBI (48), and batting average (.260). His .304 BABIP doesn’t suggest any poor luck, and he’s only collected 19 extra-base hits all season.

Martin is having a terrible season, and is showing no signs of turning things around. Kurt Suzuki, A.J. Pierzynski, Miguel Montero, Yadier Molina, and even John Baker are all out-producing Martin.

If you own Martin in a public league, it’s probably time to cut your losses. Keeper and dynasty league owners can only pray this season-long slump doesn’t carry into 2010.

Honorable Mention: Geovany Soto

First Base – Adrian Gonzalez

Gonzalez went bonkers in April and May, bashing 20 long balls while driving in 40 runs with a .282 average. Since then, he’s managed to hit just 13 HR with 33 RBI and a .261 average.

A recent surge, which included a six-hit night, has put a halt to his downward spiral. One two-week stretch, however, cannot save the last three months.

The 27-year-old does have 33 HR, but just 73 RBI to go along with it. In his previous two seasons, Gonzalez has hit 30 and 36 long balls, while knocking in 100 and 119 runs each year, respectively. His current .272 batting average is his worst since arriving in San Diego in 2006.

Unless you owned Gonzo in a roto league back in April and May, he’s likely been a huge disappointment. The big lefty is an exceptional hitter, but Petco Park and the Padres’ weak lineup is holding him back.

If you were able to cash in on Gonzalez’s hot start, pat yourself on the back. For the rest of you, try using his 33 HR as a selling point to land someone whose best performance has yet to come.

Honorable Mention: Aubrey Huff

Second Base – Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla carries a big stick, but is prone to the strikeout and is a career .257 hitter.

While the 29-year-old does have 22 HR, (something that should not go unnoticed at his position) his .237 average can really hurt your team.

After his 97/32/92/.260 2008 season, Uggla was probably being counted on to produce as the sixth or seventh best second basemen. Instead, he currently ranks No. 21 at his position, behind the likes of Clint Barmes, Mark DeRosa, and Jose Lopez.

Honorable Mention: Howie Kendrick

Third Base – Chipper Jones

This is likely to be an unpopular pick, but the numbers don’t lie. While it’s unfair to say that Chipper, (or any player for that matter) has played without injuries this season, he has not missed any significant time.

The following is a table that displays Chipper’s 2009 production (or lack there of) compared to his 2008 totals, in just 68 fewer at-bats. 

Russell Branyan and Casey Blake have produced at a higher level than Chipper this season; go figure!

Honorable Mention: Garrett Atkins

Shortstop – Rafael Furcal

Furcal is a .284 career hitter, and has never finished the season with an average under .270.

That could change this year, as the soon to be 32-year-old is turning in a lack-luster 2009 campaign, with just 67 runs, six bombs, 35 RBI, and six steals to go along with his .259 average.

The man who began his career with eight consecutive seasons of at least 22 steals may not reach double-digits in 2009, limiting his fantasy value considerably. Marco Scutaro, Yunel Escobar, Erick Aybar, Cristian Guzman, and even Alberto Callaspo have out-performed Furcal, proving his worthlessness to fantasy owners.

Honorable Mention: Jhonny Peralta

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

Soriano was likely the No. 2 left fielder in fantasy baseball before the season began, but he currently ranks

31^st on the list at his position. Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez have stats lines that are comparable to Soriano’s, but with a much better batting average.

Soriano is currently batting .240, despite being a career .278 hitter. His batting average was as low as .226 in early July, and fantasy owners never got the prolonged hot streak they were hoping for.

Soriano’s production has gotten progressively worse each season since signing with the Cubs before 2007, and there’s little reason to believe the 33-year-old will ever return to his 40/40 or even 30/30 form anytime soon.

Honorable Mention: Elijah Dukes

Center Field – B.J. Upton

Upton is an extremely tough player to figure out. In 2007, he hit 24 HR, batted .300, and swiped 22 bases. Last season he hit just nine long balls, but increased his stolen base count to 44, while batting .273.

This year, Upton has yet to regain his power stroke, hitting just nine HR. His .237 batting average leaves something to be desired, though his 36 steals are nice to own.

The truth is, however, that Michael Bourn and Denard Span are out-producing Upton, and are likely much cheaper on the trade market; especially in keeper leagues. From here on out, I have no idea what to expect from the enigma that is B.J. Upton, and that’s not a good thing.

Honorable Mention: Vernon Wells

Right Field – Milton Bradley

After an amazing 2008 season in Texas which saw him post 78/22/77/.321 in just 414 at-bats, Milton Bradley has been a colossal disappointment this year with the Cubs.

Through 316 at-bats, Milton Bradley has totaled just nine HR and 31 RBI to go along with his .250 batting average. To put this into perspective, teammate Aramis Ramirez has knocked in seven more runs in 126 fewer at-bats.

Fantasy owners have been expecting Bradley’s bat to wake up, but it has yet to do so. Jonny Gomes is currently out-producing Bradley, to the tune of six more HR, three more RBI and a batting average that’s 31 points higher in 129 fewer at-bats.

Simply put: Milton Bradley should not be owned, even in the deepest fantasy leagues.

Honorable Mention: Nick Swisher

Starting Pitcher – Cole Hamels

I hate to admit it, but I was wrong about Cole Hamels. 2009 has been a disaster for last year’s World Series MVP, despite the Phillies’ continued success. While a few things point to bad luck, there’s no denying his 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

On the season, Hamels owns a .285 batting average against, compared to his career mark of .244. Since the All-Star Break, Hamels has turned in just three quality starts, while Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf, and Jarrod Washburn have all out-pitched the 2002 first-rounder.

On the flip side, Hamels owns a 2.00 BB/9 ratio, and his FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale) of 4.16 suggests he hasn’t been quite as bad as his ERA may lead you to believe.

The good news is Hamels is only 25, and next year will be a fresh start for him. The bad news is 2009 hates Cole Hamels, and as a fantasy owner, you should too.

Honorable Mention: A.J. Burnett

Closer – Kerry Wood

The American League has not been kind to Kerry Wood, as the 32-year-old has recorded just 15 saves this season while posting a 4.70 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Walks continue to be a problem for him too, as made evident by his 4.50 BB/9.

Most fantasy managers who drafted him in March were hoping for something similar to 2008, which saw him save 34 games and post a 3.26 ERA. Instead, guys who weren’t even closing at the beginning of the season such as LaTroy Hawkins, J.P. Howell, and C.J. Wilson, have out-produced the over appreciated Kerry Wood.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Marmol

I know you all have some opinions on this one, so let me hear them! Who did I miss, and who did I wrongfully include on the list?

 

Related posts:

1. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: The All-August Free Agent Team
2. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: The All-Underappreciated Team
3. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Second Half Studs Part Two

Related posts:

1. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Top Spot Starters for Week 25
2. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: The All-Overappreciated Team
3. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Second Half Studs

Ricky Nolasco

After a breakout campaign in 2008 which saw him go 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings, the former fourth round pick of the Cubs appeared ready to claim a spot among the top 25 starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.

A horrific April and May, however, landed Nolasco in Triple-A after posting a 9.07 ERA through nine starts with the Marlins.

After two starts in the minors, the 26 year-old found himself back in the big leagues, and appears to be back to his old self.

In two starts since returning to Florida, Nolasco has posted a 2.77 ERA, and a 13/4 K/BB ratio in 13 innings.

A closer look at Nolasco’s splits suggest he has been the victim of very bad luck.

Through 11 starts with the Marlins this season, Nolasco’s BABIP stands at a whopping .399, compared to the .284 mark he posted in 2008, and his Major League career total of .314. His high BABIP is supported by a line drive percentage of 24.7, up from 18.8 percent in 2008. These totals are all sure to drop.

What’s most promising is Nolasco’s K/9 ratio, (7.94) which is in line with his 2008 total of 7.88. While his BB/9 ratio (2.70) is higher than his 2008 total of 1.78, it’s still fairly low.

Another encouraging sign in Nolasco’s FIP, (Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale) which measures only the factors that a pitcher is responsible for. Nolasco’s FIP is currently 4.11, a far cry from his actual ERA of 7.62, yet in line with his 3.77 FIP in 2008.

All of these factors lead me to believe Nolasco is prepared for a big turn around. Because of his horrific start, Nolasco’s 2008 totals are unattainable. However, I expect Nolasco to post a 3.50 ERA from here on out, which would give him the following year end totals:

Cole Hamels

After failing to post a quality start in April, Hamels rebounded nicely in May, pitching six or more innings, while allowing three runs or less in four of his five starts. After a complete game, five-hit shutout on June 4 against the Dodgers, the 2008 World Series MVP had fantasy owners believing the Cole Hamels we all know and love was back.

In his next start, however, Hamels allowed four runs on 11 hits in five innings against the Mets, leaving many scratching their heads.

A closer look at the numbers show that Hamels, like Nolasco, owns an unusually high BABIP of .348. Hamels’ career mark of .291 suggests success is in his future.

Hamels’ current line drive percentage of 25.9 is sure to drop as well, based on his career mark of 20.7 percent. His HR/FB ratio is also elevated, currently at 16.4 percent, compared to 12.4 percent for his career. This total is likely to drop.

What’s even better is that Hamels’ K/9 (8.09) is up from last year’s 7.76 mark, and in line with his career total of 8.53. His BB/9 is actually the lowest it’s ever been, currently at 1.73, compared to 2.32 for his career. Hamels also sports a stellar 4.67 K/BB ratio, which further supports my “bad luck” theory.

Hamels’ splits show he’s historically most effective after the All-Star Break. While his ERA and WHIP are currently 4.62 and 1.38, respectively, now is the best time to trade for him. I expect Hamels to post a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP from here on out. If you can get him for anything less than what a top-five starter would normally be worth, pull the trigger.

Koji Uehara

The 33 year-old Japanese pitcher has gone relatively unnoticed in his first year in the Major Leagues.

His 4.37 ERA is somewhat misleading because of the beating he took in Arlington in his second start of the season. If you discount that game, Uehara’s ERA is a respectable 3.55

In four starts against the A.L. East, (one against Boston and Tampa Bay, two against New York) Uehara has totaled a 2.56 ERA in 24 2/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts and just three walks.

Six of Uehara’s ten starts have qualified as quality starts. In one of the non-quality starts, he pitched three scoreless innings before being removed with a hamstring injury. In his return from the DL on June 11, he allowed just one hit through the first two innings, before a 27-minute rain delay broke his rhythm. After the delay, Uehara allowed three straight hits, and was removed after five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits.

What’s most impressive about Uehara is his control. Through 55 2/3 innings, he owns a sparkling 1.94 BB/9 rate. Uehara has issued two or less free passes in nine of his ten starts; with the aforementioned Texas game being the only blip on the radar.

If your opponents have failed to noticed Uehara’s success, scoop him up now before the secret gets out. Because he plays for Baltimore, a low win-total is likely to limit his value. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Uehara finish the season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a sub-1.25 WHIP, to go along with a solid K/9.

What do you think of my buy-low candidates, and who’s on your buy-low list?

Related posts:

1. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Top Spot Starters for Week 25
2. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: The Art of Spot Starting
3. Nick Kappel’s Fantasy Focus: Second Half Studs Part Two

The Phillies beat the Tampa Bay Rays, MLB’s Cinderella story of 2008, to become the World Series Champs! What more needs to be said about 2008 except that Cole Hamels proved that he IS a # 1 starter with his performance in the playoffs. Just in case anyone was questioning his ability on baseball’s biggest stage. Also, despite an insane amount of K’s and a low average, 1B Ryan Howard once again had an MVP-type of season only to be outdone by a fellow first baseman who will go unnamed here for now.

Holes to Fill

For the first few months of the season there will be a gaping hole at 2B with Chase Utley’s hip surgery sidelining him until around June. After that, they might want to look at replacing Feliz at 3B and if Boston gets Teixeira, they may be able to land Mike Lowell for less than usual given his hip injury. It’s a gamble, but might be worth it for the right price. Then, depending on what happens with free agen Pat Burrell (see below), they might need another OF to man LF and they’ll need someone with some power. Then there’s the problem with replacing Moyer in the rotation if they don’t resign him.

Free Agents

The reigning World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies have  4 players from their championship team in free agency this off season and they are LF Pat Burrell (32), RP Tom Gordon (41), SP Jamie Moyer (46), RP Rudy Seanez (40). It is probably safe to say that everyone here 40 and over will not be playing for Philly in 2009 unless Moyer takes what they offer which might not be much. Look for a hometown discount if anything is offered at all. In the case of Burrell, it all depends on who else is pursuing him and how affected the market is this off season by the economy. Most guys seem to be getting equal or lesser value than they have in recent years.

The Outlook

I don’t see any reason why the Phillies won’t be in the running for a playoff spot next year, but I won’t go so far as 1st place in the NL East again until I see what transpires with the NL East via trade or free agency this off season. Also, if Utley comes back healthy and has as good of a second half (right after he returns from the DL) as his first half of 2008, that will be the equivalent of a HUGE trade deadline move! It can only help, all they have to do is stay healthy and within reach of first place until then.

Off Season Moves Made So Far
None so far.

Related posts:

1. Phillies Fans It Is Not Time To Panic
2. Washington Nationals Off Season Report
3. Florida Marlins Off Season Report

The Philadelphia Phillies have won the 2008 World Series 4 games to 1 over the Tampa Bay Rays, ending their (the Rays’) Cinderella season. 48 hours after the start of Game 5, they resumed it from the bottom of the 6th tied at 2. They won the series 4 games to 1, but it was a much more exciting series than those numbers evoke. There was only 1 blowout and all of the remaining games were decided.

Game 1 in Tampa Bay: Phillies 3 Rays 2
Game 2 in Tampa Bay: Rays 4 Phillies 2

Game 3 in Philly: Phillies 5 Rays 4
Game 4 in Philly: Phillies 10 Rays 2
Game 5 in Philly: Phillies 4 Rays 3

Game 5

In the bottom of the 6th, the Phillies went ahead 3-2 on a Werth (RF) single, scoring Jenkins (PH) who had doubled to lead off the inning only to have a Rocco Baldelli (RF) HR tie it back up again in the top of the 7th. Then in the bottom of the 7th, Feliz (3B) singled home Bruntlett (LF) to go ahead 4-3 and that’s how the game ended with closer Brad Lidge closing the door in the 9th to seal the Championship and end the series.

JC Romero got the win, JP Howell the loss and Lidge got the save with more detail of the importance of that last stat a little later in this post.

2008 World Series MVP

Starting pitcher Cole Hamels who went 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 8 K’s in his two starts (he started game 5 Monday night) won the MVP award and a 2010 Camaro on his wife’s birthday (last night, 10/29) and said that the car will be hers.

Cole had 4 victories in this post season and almost had his 5th in game 5 if it were not for Baldelli’s 7th inning HR. 5 wins would have been a single player record for the post season!

Who else would have made a good choice as series MVP?

Philly 2008 Milestones

1. The Phillies were 86-0 after leading through 8 innings this year
2. Closer Brad Lidge was 48-48 in saves this year. 41-41 in the regular season and 7-7 in the playoffs with 2 of those coming in the World Series.

Phillies Franchise Milestones

1. 126 years old
2. over 10,000 losses
3. 2 World Series Victories (1980 & 2008): Priceless!
   

Related posts:

1. Philadelphia Phillies Off Season Report
2. For the First Time in World Series History…
3. Philadelphia is One Win Away from Baseball Euphoria!