Photo taken from Google Images

With Cole Hamels on the mound Tuesday night, I bet you couldn’t keep your eyes off the little blue batter’s box on TBS with a teeny pitch count above it. We watched Hamels’ pitch count climb higher and higher, while Garcia finished his innings quicker than a trip to the bathroom.

By the third inning it was clear that Hamels was struggling.

Then Rich Dubee made some funny comments. Dubee praised Hamels for his poise and presence on the mound, the velocity on his fastball and the movement on his pitches. Were we watching the same game?

Wait a minute. Let’s think about this for a second. Maybe Hamels deserves the praise. He faced a very dangerous Cardinals team who showed us exactly why they have the best offense in the league. Yes, Hamels threw a lot of pitches, but that was his only choice against a patient Cardinals squad. I mean, look at what happened to Halladay and Lee when they left pitches over the plate, giving up 8 runs between the two of them.

Hamels explained his approach perfectly. “I was trying to make pitches and just keep them down. If I missed, I knew I got another opportunity. If you’re making your mistakes up in the zone, you’re pretty much going to pay for it really bad. But if they’re down, you give yourself probably a better opportunity to get out of the inning.”

You have two choices against an offense like the St. Louis Cardinals. You keep working the corners and watch your pitch count rise or you start creeping toward the middle of the plate and meet the same fate as Hamels’ opponent. Garcia made one mistake and it lost him the game. Hamels made none and wound up the victor.

“I knew that every pitch mattered,” he said. “Every inning mattered. They had a great pitcher on the mound . . . We were 1-1 in the series . . . We’re not in our home park anymore. You definitely focus and try to dig deep.”

Yet his performance has already been gone and forgotten. Go to philly.com and phillies.com and you will see what I mean. Only one article on philly.com about Hamels and none on Phillies.com. In fact, Cole Hamels name was mentioned exactly 4 times in three Game 3 articles on phillies.com. He has the second lowest ERA (1.81) in Division Series history and became the winningest pitcher in Phillies postseason history, yet he had a GRAND TOTAL OF 4 MENTIONS.

A World Series ring and 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP honors didn’t get Hamels noticed and neither did 4 postseason wins in 2008, 7 postseason wins overall, a 2.65 postseason ERA since 2007, or 6 shutout innings last night.

The question is, how many championships will it take before Hamels gets the respect he deserves?

This article was written by our friends at MoneyStats.com

At MoneyStats, we have developed a Splits List Section for starting pitchers.

In our Splits Lists, you can break down the lists by American and National League,

by team and by number of starts for easy comparisons.

Our Splits Lists include breakdowns on all starting pitchers in Quality Starts, Runs Received,

No Decisions, Home / Away Records, and 9 Inning Splits.  Each of our columns are sortable, from high to low and low to high throughout our entire Player Rating System.

To view our entire Player Rating System and complete Splits Lists, please visit us at www.moneystats.net.

Click on the yellow banner at the top of our homepage to sign in at no obligation.  All we need is an email address and a password you determine, and then click the “Try MoneyStats for Free” tab and that will give you access to our entire site.

We welcome all comments, so please email us at mark@moneystats.net with your thoughts….

Here is an example of our Runs Received Splits based on the Differential number (through August 2^nd)

22 – 28 Starts

15 – 21 Starts

8 – 14 Starts

Photo taken from Google Images

It’s here: our final 2011 Phillies predictions!

With our Phillies predictions blogs complete for the infield, outfield, and starters, we naturally finish with the overall 2011 Phillies predictions blog.

To make this year’s Phillies prediction more official, I tried to use as many statistics as possible. I therefore went position by position with the starting pitchers and position players to predict how each position will perform versus last season and how that will affect the overall team record. We begin with the starting pitching.

2011 Phillies Starting Pitching Changes

The chart below shows the 2010 and 2011 Phillies rotations side by side. To start the season, last year’s rotation consisted of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, and Kendrick. By the end of the season Roy Oswalt became the number 3 starter, Blanton moved to #4, and Kendrick stayed at #5. We split Blanton’s numbers between the #3 and #4 starter positions since he spent roughly half the year at each position. To keep things simple, we also listed Hamels as the #2 starter in 2011 and Lee as the #4.

Then we compared the difference in number of wins and ERA:

2010 2011 Win Differential ERA Differential
Halladay same N/A N/A
Hamels same N/A N/A
Blanton/Oswalt Oswalt -1.5 -1.03
Moyer/Blanton Lee same -1.64
Kendrick Blanton +2 +.09
Totals +0.5 -2.58

The difference in wins is roughly the same, but there is a clear difference in ERA. Basing the ERA differential on 200 innings pitched for each starter, the Phillies starting staff will surrender 57 less runs than last season. Now let’s look at the offense.

2011 Phillies Offensive Changes

We used the same approach with the hitters, comparing the positions which have changed this year: second base, shortstop, and right field. Right or wrong, we compared strictly using each player’s 2010 numbers, assumed that Utley will miss the entire season, Francisco will be the full time right fielder, and prorated their statistics over 162 games. Let’s see what we find:

Second Base

Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H

2010 (Utley) .275 22 91 105 .832 179

2011 (Valdez) .258 5 51 54 .667 168

Differential -.17 -17 -40 -51 -.165 -11

Shortstop

Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H

2010 (Rollins/Valdez) .251 10 63 71 .681 164

2011 (Rollins) .243 14 75 88 .694 158

Differential -.15 +9 +24 +34 +.27 -6

Right Field

Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H

2010 (Werth) .296 28 88 110 .921 192

2011 (Francisco) .268 20 92 79 .768 174

Differential -.28 -8 +4 -31 -.153 -18

Total Phillies Offensive Differential

Avg. HR RBI Runs OBP H

-.60 -21 -24 -65 -.188 -35

According to these figures, the Phillies will score 65 less runs in 2011. Using last year’s totals, this would drop the Phillies from 5th to 6th in the NL in hits, 5th to 12th in HR, and from 2nd to 9th in Runs Scored.

CONCLUSION

Now we know the change in runs scored and runs allowed. But how does that equate to wins and losses? We simply apply the changes to last year’s run differential. Take a look at the totals from the top five NL teams last season.

Wins Runs For Runs Against Run Differential

97 772 640 +132
92 697 583 +114
91 738 629 +109
91 790 685 +105
86 736 641 +95

The Phillies had the best record in the NL with 97 wins. When we put all the stats together, we found that the Phillies should score 65 less runs and surrender 57 fewer runs, giving them 707 runs scored and 583 runs given up in 2011, for a total differential of +124. That would put the 2011 Phillies 8 runs behind last year and right in the middle of the top two records from last year with 94.5 wins. We rank up (of course) for a prediction of 95 wins.

FINAL PREDICTION

The 2011 Phillies essentially removed Werth and Utley and added Cliff Lee, so it is a bit surprising that the results finished so high, but it looks about right. However, I believe Rollins will have a monster year and that Blanton and Hamels will pitch better this season. If that holds true, the Phillies will improve their run differential from last season.

Charlie Manuel‘s Phillies teams have improved an average of around 2 games per season. If that trend continues, the Phillies will get 99 wins.

As much as I want to give the Phillies 100 wins, but why argue with the numbers? Our prediction: 99 wins.

Record: 99-63

Hitting: WORSE
Starting Pitching: BETTER
Bullpen: SAME
Defense: SAME

Cy Young winner: Cole Hamels

NL Division champs

The Phillies will once again be crowned WORLD CHAMPIONS!

Photo of Phillies Ace Roy Halladay by Icon SMI

Going by the numbers for this award, I analyzed the following metrics: wins minus losses plus strikeouts, walks minus intentional walks (because that’s usually situational), WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), ERA minus SIERA (a new Baseball Prospectus stat that reflects a pitcher’s true ERA). Points were also deducted for wild pitches, balks, hit batters and home runs allowed.

Additional stats not taken into this analysis were the winner’s complete games (9) and shutouts (4 of those 9 games). One of these games being a Perfect game (no hits or walks allowed).

The winner is Phillies Ace Roy “Doc” Halladay

The Stan Musial Award

Albert Pujols Photo by Icon SMI

Going by the numbers for this award, I analyzed the following metrics: runs scored, RBIs, total bases, added the number of intentional walks to add weight to that stat (it usually shows the reluctance to face a certain batter), stolen bases minus times caught stealing, batting average, OBP and then I subtracted strikeouts.

I would have persoanally preferred to see new blood win this award, but Pujols is well deserving of it this year! He beat Reds 1B Joey Votto in runs, RBI, total bases, walks (with 30 more intentional walks than Votto), less K’s with more hits, doubles and home runs. How could Pujols not win it when you look at it that way?

*denotes Honorable Mentions

Back on Tuesday night in an extra inning game between the Philadelphia Philles and the Houston Astros something special happened. In a move that you don’t see that often anymore, due to Phillies All Star first baseman Ryan Howard‘s ejection, former Astros starting pitcher Roy Oswalt was called upon to play LF moving left fielder Raul Ibanez to 1B where he’s played over 100 games in his career (just not recently).

The thought process goes something like this…when a lefty is up to bat, the pitcher plays in left field as a left handed hitter will usually pull the ball into RF. Then when a righty comes up to bat you would switch him with your right fielder as most right handed hitters will pull the ball into LF.

But as fate would have it, on the first pitch of the inning, the left handed batter took one the opposite way, but right at Oswalt who barely had to move! The pitcher made a textbook two-handed catch for the putout and the phans at Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia went nuts! Here’s the video…

Later in the same inning another left handed batter tried to take advantage of his speed and of the out of position Ibanez by dragging a bunt down the 1B line and the video below will show you how that went…remember, this game is in extra innings…

Please share any memories you may have of moves made like this in the comments section below! Thank you…

2B Chase Utley photo by Icon SMI

The story in July was in every way a roller coaster for the Phillies.  The Phils entered July having already gone through a historically awful offensive slump in May and June, so when Chase Utley was injured on June 29 and it was announced on July 1st  that he would need surgery and would be out a couple months, fans had real reason to panic.

When July began, the Phillies were 41-35 and in third place in the division.  With Utley out of the lineup and after losing a series to the Reds, the Phillies travelled to Pittsburgh to play the hapless Pirates.  However, the Phillies once again couldn’t get their act together and lost three of four to the last place Bucs.  That was not exactly the momentum the Phils needed before a series at home against the Braves.  This was clearly the biggest series of the season at that point, since the Phillies were five games in back of the Braves.  But after winning the first game, the Phillies promptly dropped the next two.  That put them six games back of the Braves and just three games over .500.

The Phillies needed some magic desperately with one series left before the All-Star break, and they got just that in a series against the first place Reds.  Although they did not score many runs, the Phillies pulled off three walk-off wins to sweep the Reds heading into the all-star break.

Could that be the spark they needed to start yet another amazing second-half on their way to the playoffs?

The Chicago Cubs quickly brought the Phillies back to Earth.  They lost three of four games to the Cubs and lost the first three games against the Cardinals to bring them to just two games over .500.  With a 1-6 record on the road trip, the Phils were able to finish the trip on a positive note with a weird game against the Cards.  Cole Hamels and the bullpen combined to throw 11 innings of one-hit ball and Placido Polanco hit the game winning single in the eleventh.

That was the spark the Phillies needed as they returned home to sweep the Colorado Rockies en route to an eight game winning streak.

SP Roy Oswalt photo by Icon SMI

The streak couldn’t have come at a better time, because it put the Phils in position to be a true buyer at the deadline.  Ruben Amaro took advantage and pulled off another pretty decent trade for another ace pitcher, trading JA Happ and a couple picks to Houston for Roy Oswalt along with $11 million dollars.

All said, the Phillies went 15-13 in July.  Those aren’t the kind of numbers we expect from a Charlie Manuel team in July but it isn’t all that bad considering they started 2-5.  After huge up and down stretches, the Phils ironically started and finished 3.5 games back of the Braves.

Biggest streaks:

Winning streak: 8
Losing streak: 4

Here is a quick gauge of where they stood at certain points during the month:

7/1 – 3.5 games back in 3rd place
7/11 – 5.5 games back in 3rd place
7/21 – 4 games back in 3rd place
7/31 – 3.5 games back in 2nd place.

After Tuesday night’s gem against St. Louis, Phillies’ starter Cole Hamels lowered his season ERA to a less than desirable 4.42. His stellar 44/12 K/BB ratio and 2.79 BB/9, however, suggests more success is on the horizon.

Through 38 2/3 innings thus far, Hamels has fallen victim to a .356 BABIP, which explains his sky-high 1.42 WHIP. A similiarly high BABIP (.325) plagued Hamels in 2009 as well, as the 2002 first-rounder posted a career-high 4.32 ERA.

Despite this, Hamels’ 2009 peripherals (7.81 K/9, 2.00 BB/9) were in line with his career totals of 8.47 and 2.31.

One major difference from 2008 to 2009 was Hamels’ o-swing rate – the percentage of pitches an opposing batter swings at outside the strike zone. In 2008, Hamels coaxed whiffs on pitches outside the zone a whopping 30.8 percent of the time (the league average that year was 25.4 percent). In 2009, that number dropped to 26.8 percent.

This could mean one of two things. Either Hamels’ stuff wasn’t quite as nasty last year, or perhaps he was pitching too well. Through six starts in 2010, his o-swing rate is back up to 31.6 percent, leading this Insider to believe the 2008 version of Hamels will emerge this season.

Hamels’ 2009 FIP (3.72) also suggests a bounce-back season is likely. Don’t forget that Hamels posted ace-like ERAs of 3.39 and 3.09 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, as well as WHIPs of 1.12 and 1.08 to go along with the aforementioned strikeout and walk rates.

Given his fourth straight season with no less than 180 innings, Hamels is capable of approaching 200 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

FBI Forecast: 200 IP, 14 W, 185 K (8.3 K/9), 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders Player Projections:

• Livan Hernandez
• Mike Pelfrey
• Delmon Young
• Drew Stubbs
• Nolan Reimold
• Jay Bruce
• Geovany Soto
• B.J. Upton
• Shin-Soo Choo
• Matt Wieters

Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight updates:

• 5/4: Is Yankees’ Pitcher A.J. Burnett Really This Good?
• 5/3: Red Sox’s Mike Lowell Turns Back the Clock
• 4/28: Who The Heck is Luis Atilano?
• 4/27: Who The Heck is Cliff Pennington?
• 4/26: Marlins’ Josh Johnson Three-Hits Padres, K’s 12 in Win

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Prospect Report:

• Does Rangers’ Justin Smoak Have Fantasy Value in 2010?
• Does Mets’ Ike Davis Have Fantasy Value in 2010?

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ Inbox:

• Trade Astros’ Carlos Lee for Blue Jays’ Vernon Wells?

More from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Padres’ Kyle Blanks, Reds’ Drew Stubbs Headline 2010 All-Breakout Team

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Martin was the No. 1 drafted catcher in most leagues this year, but has failed to live up to those expectations.

The 26-year-old is currently on pace to set career lows in HR (five), RBI (48), and batting average (.260). His .304 BABIP doesn’t suggest any poor luck, and he’s only collected 19 extra-base hits all season.

Martin is having a terrible season, and is showing no signs of turning things around. Kurt Suzuki, A.J. Pierzynski, Miguel Montero, Yadier Molina, and even John Baker are all out-producing Martin.

If you own Martin in a public league, it’s probably time to cut your losses. Keeper and dynasty league owners can only pray this season-long slump doesn’t carry into 2010.

Honorable Mention: Geovany Soto

First Base – Adrian Gonzalez

Gonzalez went bonkers in April and May, bashing 20 long balls while driving in 40 runs with a .282 average. Since then, he’s managed to hit just 13 HR with 33 RBI and a .261 average.

A recent surge, which included a six-hit night, has put a halt to his downward spiral. One two-week stretch, however, cannot save the last three months.

The 27-year-old does have 33 HR, but just 73 RBI to go along with it. In his previous two seasons, Gonzalez has hit 30 and 36 long balls, while knocking in 100 and 119 runs each year, respectively. His current .272 batting average is his worst since arriving in San Diego in 2006.

Unless you owned Gonzo in a roto league back in April and May, he’s likely been a huge disappointment. The big lefty is an exceptional hitter, but Petco Park and the Padres’ weak lineup is holding him back.

If you were able to cash in on Gonzalez’s hot start, pat yourself on the back. For the rest of you, try using his 33 HR as a selling point to land someone whose best performance has yet to come.

Honorable Mention: Aubrey Huff

Second Base – Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla carries a big stick, but is prone to the strikeout and is a career .257 hitter.

While the 29-year-old does have 22 HR, (something that should not go unnoticed at his position) his .237 average can really hurt your team.

After his 97/32/92/.260 2008 season, Uggla was probably being counted on to produce as the sixth or seventh best second basemen. Instead, he currently ranks No. 21 at his position, behind the likes of Clint Barmes, Mark DeRosa, and Jose Lopez.

Honorable Mention: Howie Kendrick

Third Base – Chipper Jones

This is likely to be an unpopular pick, but the numbers don’t lie. While it’s unfair to say that Chipper, (or any player for that matter) has played without injuries this season, he has not missed any significant time.

The following is a table that displays Chipper’s 2009 production (or lack there of) compared to his 2008 totals, in just 68 fewer at-bats. 

Russell Branyan and Casey Blake have produced at a higher level than Chipper this season; go figure!

Honorable Mention: Garrett Atkins

Shortstop – Rafael Furcal

Furcal is a .284 career hitter, and has never finished the season with an average under .270.

That could change this year, as the soon to be 32-year-old is turning in a lack-luster 2009 campaign, with just 67 runs, six bombs, 35 RBI, and six steals to go along with his .259 average.

The man who began his career with eight consecutive seasons of at least 22 steals may not reach double-digits in 2009, limiting his fantasy value considerably. Marco Scutaro, Yunel Escobar, Erick Aybar, Cristian Guzman, and even Alberto Callaspo have out-performed Furcal, proving his worthlessness to fantasy owners.

Honorable Mention: Jhonny Peralta

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano

Soriano was likely the No. 2 left fielder in fantasy baseball before the season began, but he currently ranks

31^st on the list at his position. Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez have stats lines that are comparable to Soriano’s, but with a much better batting average.

Soriano is currently batting .240, despite being a career .278 hitter. His batting average was as low as .226 in early July, and fantasy owners never got the prolonged hot streak they were hoping for.

Soriano’s production has gotten progressively worse each season since signing with the Cubs before 2007, and there’s little reason to believe the 33-year-old will ever return to his 40/40 or even 30/30 form anytime soon.

Honorable Mention: Elijah Dukes

Center Field – B.J. Upton

Upton is an extremely tough player to figure out. In 2007, he hit 24 HR, batted .300, and swiped 22 bases. Last season he hit just nine long balls, but increased his stolen base count to 44, while batting .273.

This year, Upton has yet to regain his power stroke, hitting just nine HR. His .237 batting average leaves something to be desired, though his 36 steals are nice to own.

The truth is, however, that Michael Bourn and Denard Span are out-producing Upton, and are likely much cheaper on the trade market; especially in keeper leagues. From here on out, I have no idea what to expect from the enigma that is B.J. Upton, and that’s not a good thing.

Honorable Mention: Vernon Wells

Right Field – Milton Bradley

After an amazing 2008 season in Texas which saw him post 78/22/77/.321 in just 414 at-bats, Milton Bradley has been a colossal disappointment this year with the Cubs.

Through 316 at-bats, Milton Bradley has totaled just nine HR and 31 RBI to go along with his .250 batting average. To put this into perspective, teammate Aramis Ramirez has knocked in seven more runs in 126 fewer at-bats.

Fantasy owners have been expecting Bradley’s bat to wake up, but it has yet to do so. Jonny Gomes is currently out-producing Bradley, to the tune of six more HR, three more RBI and a batting average that’s 31 points higher in 129 fewer at-bats.

Simply put: Milton Bradley should not be owned, even in the deepest fantasy leagues.

Honorable Mention: Nick Swisher

Starting Pitcher – Cole Hamels

I hate to admit it, but I was wrong about Cole Hamels. 2009 has been a disaster for last year’s World Series MVP, despite the Phillies’ continued success. While a few things point to bad luck, there’s no denying his 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

On the season, Hamels owns a .285 batting average against, compared to his career mark of .244. Since the All-Star Break, Hamels has turned in just three quality starts, while Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf, and Jarrod Washburn have all out-pitched the 2002 first-rounder.

On the flip side, Hamels owns a 2.00 BB/9 ratio, and his FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale) of 4.16 suggests he hasn’t been quite as bad as his ERA may lead you to believe.

The good news is Hamels is only 25, and next year will be a fresh start for him. The bad news is 2009 hates Cole Hamels, and as a fantasy owner, you should too.

Honorable Mention: A.J. Burnett

Closer – Kerry Wood

The American League has not been kind to Kerry Wood, as the 32-year-old has recorded just 15 saves this season while posting a 4.70 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Walks continue to be a problem for him too, as made evident by his 4.50 BB/9.

Most fantasy managers who drafted him in March were hoping for something similar to 2008, which saw him save 34 games and post a 3.26 ERA. Instead, guys who weren’t even closing at the beginning of the season such as LaTroy Hawkins, J.P. Howell, and C.J. Wilson, have out-produced the over appreciated Kerry Wood.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Marmol

I know you all have some opinions on this one, so let me hear them! Who did I miss, and who did I wrongfully include on the list?

 

Ricky Nolasco

After a breakout campaign in 2008 which saw him go 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings, the former fourth round pick of the Cubs appeared ready to claim a spot among the top 25 starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.

A horrific April and May, however, landed Nolasco in Triple-A after posting a 9.07 ERA through nine starts with the Marlins.

After two starts in the minors, the 26 year-old found himself back in the big leagues, and appears to be back to his old self.

In two starts since returning to Florida, Nolasco has posted a 2.77 ERA, and a 13/4 K/BB ratio in 13 innings.

A closer look at Nolasco’s splits suggest he has been the victim of very bad luck.

Through 11 starts with the Marlins this season, Nolasco’s BABIP stands at a whopping .399, compared to the .284 mark he posted in 2008, and his Major League career total of .314. His high BABIP is supported by a line drive percentage of 24.7, up from 18.8 percent in 2008. These totals are all sure to drop.

What’s most promising is Nolasco’s K/9 ratio, (7.94) which is in line with his 2008 total of 7.88. While his BB/9 ratio (2.70) is higher than his 2008 total of 1.78, it’s still fairly low.

Another encouraging sign in Nolasco’s FIP, (Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale) which measures only the factors that a pitcher is responsible for. Nolasco’s FIP is currently 4.11, a far cry from his actual ERA of 7.62, yet in line with his 3.77 FIP in 2008.

All of these factors lead me to believe Nolasco is prepared for a big turn around. Because of his horrific start, Nolasco’s 2008 totals are unattainable. However, I expect Nolasco to post a 3.50 ERA from here on out, which would give him the following year end totals:

Cole Hamels

After failing to post a quality start in April, Hamels rebounded nicely in May, pitching six or more innings, while allowing three runs or less in four of his five starts. After a complete game, five-hit shutout on June 4 against the Dodgers, the 2008 World Series MVP had fantasy owners believing the Cole Hamels we all know and love was back.

In his next start, however, Hamels allowed four runs on 11 hits in five innings against the Mets, leaving many scratching their heads.

A closer look at the numbers show that Hamels, like Nolasco, owns an unusually high BABIP of .348. Hamels’ career mark of .291 suggests success is in his future.

Hamels’ current line drive percentage of 25.9 is sure to drop as well, based on his career mark of 20.7 percent. His HR/FB ratio is also elevated, currently at 16.4 percent, compared to 12.4 percent for his career. This total is likely to drop.

What’s even better is that Hamels’ K/9 (8.09) is up from last year’s 7.76 mark, and in line with his career total of 8.53. His BB/9 is actually the lowest it’s ever been, currently at 1.73, compared to 2.32 for his career. Hamels also sports a stellar 4.67 K/BB ratio, which further supports my “bad luck” theory.

Hamels’ splits show he’s historically most effective after the All-Star Break. While his ERA and WHIP are currently 4.62 and 1.38, respectively, now is the best time to trade for him. I expect Hamels to post a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP from here on out. If you can get him for anything less than what a top-five starter would normally be worth, pull the trigger.

Koji Uehara

The 33 year-old Japanese pitcher has gone relatively unnoticed in his first year in the Major Leagues.

His 4.37 ERA is somewhat misleading because of the beating he took in Arlington in his second start of the season. If you discount that game, Uehara’s ERA is a respectable 3.55

In four starts against the A.L. East, (one against Boston and Tampa Bay, two against New York) Uehara has totaled a 2.56 ERA in 24 2/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts and just three walks.

Six of Uehara’s ten starts have qualified as quality starts. In one of the non-quality starts, he pitched three scoreless innings before being removed with a hamstring injury. In his return from the DL on June 11, he allowed just one hit through the first two innings, before a 27-minute rain delay broke his rhythm. After the delay, Uehara allowed three straight hits, and was removed after five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits.

What’s most impressive about Uehara is his control. Through 55 2/3 innings, he owns a sparkling 1.94 BB/9 rate. Uehara has issued two or less free passes in nine of his ten starts; with the aforementioned Texas game being the only blip on the radar.

If your opponents have failed to noticed Uehara’s success, scoop him up now before the secret gets out. Because he plays for Baltimore, a low win-total is likely to limit his value. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Uehara finish the season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a sub-1.25 WHIP, to go along with a solid K/9.

What do you think of my buy-low candidates, and who’s on your buy-low list?