Photo taken from Google Images (SI.com)

In our last article examining the Phillies payroll, we found that allowing Jayson Werth to walk essentially maintains the same payroll of $141 million next season.

Re-signing Werth would simply ADD Werth’s salary on top of the $141 million. It originally seemed like $15 million would be enough to keep J-dub. But after listening to Werth’s agent Scott Boras on the radio it sure seems like it would take something in the range of $17 million per year to keep Werth in Philadelphia.

Other than simply increasing the payroll to $156 million or so (which you know the Phillies owners won’t do), the only possible way to keep Jayson Werth is to make a trade. Making room for $15 plus million is no easy task and there are really only two trades I can think of to keep Werth in Philly without simply adding his salary.

KEEP WERTH OPTION #1

Trade Chase Utley, keep Jayson Werth, and find someone (maybe Valdez) to replace Utley.

Rationale: This trade ONLY happens if Ruben Amaro values Werth over Utley. They both will make roughly the same amount next season, making this more of a facelift than an upgrade. Chase Utley has not played up to his potential over the last two season and it is certainly more than valid to question whether Chase’s best years are behind him.

Positives: Re-signing Werth gives right-handed protection behind Ryan Howard in a very “left-handed heavy lineup.” It would also give you flexibility with Raul Ibanez. A team might be willing to take on a portion of Ibanez’s contract if he is coupled with Utley and then you can platoon Brown and Francisco. Or you could keep Ibanez and have an open competition in left field.

Negatives: YOU LOSE CHASE UTLEY! This guy is still one of the premier second baseman in baseball and one of the main core players on the Phillies.

*Quick note about Raul Ibanez. If the Phillies trade Ibanez, there is no chance a team will take on his entire $11.5 million next season. The Phillies could maybe get another team to take on $4.5 million and then pay the rest themselves. Unless Ed Wade would pay the whole thing…

KEEP WERTH OPTION #2

Trade Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez, platoon Brown and Francisco in left, put Valdez or someone else at short, and keep Werth in right.

Rationale: If a team takes on $4.5 million for Ibanez and you trade Rollins (who will make $8.5 million in 2011), that would give the Phillies $13 million to pay for Werth. Jimmy’s game has seriously declined in the last two seasons and Valdez is more than capable to play shortstop and he was decent at the plate. It might be tough to deal Ibanez alone, but packaging him with J-Roll might entice some teams.

Positives: Pretty much the same as with trading Utley.

Negatives: Say what you want about Jimmy’s game, but he is the heart and sole of the Phillies. Trading Rollins could kill the “mojo” that has sent the Phillies to three straight NLCS series.

Jimmy Rollins has the second best fielding percentage among shortstops of all time. Despite how well Valdez played in the field, he is no Jimmy Rollins.

If you don’t like those terrible trade ideas, it might be time to consider life without Werth. If Werth goes, Domonic Brown is set to replace him. The obvious flaw with that system is that it adds another lefty to an already lefty-heavy lineup. One way to resolve that issue is by trading Ibanez, which we already figured would only save you about $4.5 million. Even at $4.5 million, there may not be many buyers out there anyway.

REPLACE WERTH OPTION #1

Trade Ibanez, put Brown in right, Franciso in left, and use the money from Ibanez elsewhere.

Rationale: The Giants once again proved that pitching wins in the playoffs. Removing Ibanez from the picture gives Amaro flexibility to shop around for a reliever, a fifth starter, or maybe bulk up the bench.

Positives: If Brown and Francisco shine in 2011, that’s a pretty good, cheap outfield. That’s about all that I like about this option.

Negatives: How does Francisco, Victorino, and Brown sound to you? It may pan out down the road, but this outfield could very well waste a golden opportunity in Philadelphia Phillies history.

REPLACE WERTH OPTION #2

Trade Ibanez, get another outfielder like Cody Ross to replace him, and platoon Brown and Francisco in right. There are plenty Cody Ross types available (as much as I hate using his name) who could bat in the middle of the lineup from the right side.

Rationale: You can dump Ibanez while getting something in return. Platooning Domonic Brown and Francisco is the best utilization of both players. This is by far the best option in my mind.

Positives: Without trading Ibanez, the Phillies lineup would likely feature four straight left-handed batters 3 through 6 in the lineup. A Cody Ross type could offer some protection behind Howard for a fraction of the cost of Werth.

Domonic Brown is hopefully a future face of the franchise. Platooning him and Francisco not only eases Brown into the majors, but it gives Francisco more playing time.

Negatives: If Brown struggles and your Cody Ross type underperfoms, the Phillies could have a very average offense tin 2011.

Summary

Jayson Werth’s bat has been such an important part of the Phillies’ recent success. Losing him would not only drop your biggest bat from the right side, but you lose his power, speed, defense, and ability to hit with two strikes. But the fact remains that the Phillies cannot afford him. What Ruben Amaro does to replace Werth could very well define his legacy in Philadelphia.

For a more detailed look, visit my 2010 Phillies salaries and Phillies player contracts pages.

Photo of Jayson Werth by Icon SMI

Mere moments after Ryan Howard struck out to finish the Phillies season, the focus quickly shifted to Jayson Werth and the Phillies’ payroll. Will or won’t the Phillies keep Werth? Before even considering re-signing Werth, we need to examine the Phillies payroll.

A quick look at the payroll provides a clear answer.

According to USAToday.com, the Phillies 2010 payroll was $141.928 million. Excluding arbitration increases, the Phillies will immediately add $16.55 million just to maintain players under contract.

Now let’s look at salaries we can drop from the Phillies roster. Here is a list of free agents and option players…

Phillies free agents:

Jayson Werth
Jamie Moyer
Chad Durbin
Contreras
Sweeney

Phillies option player:

JC Romero – $4.5 million club option in 2011 with $250,000 buyout

Let’s assume that the Phillies will allow Jayson Werth and Jamie Moyer walk away. It is unlikely the Phils will exercise JC Romero’s option for 4.5 million next year and will instead buy him out for $250k. And for simplicity sake, let’s say we keep Durbin, Contreras, and Sweeney at the same salary (their salaries shouldn’t change much anyway). This would give the Phillies an extra $17.75 million.

In this scenario in which the Phillies add $16.55 million for increasing contracts and remove $17.75 million, the Phillies would have an extra $1.2 million to add a right fielder, one starter, and one reliever.

Inserting Domonic Brown in right, Kyle Kendrick as the number 5 starter, and grabbing another reliever for $1.2 million brings the Phils to essentially the same payroll next year.

Photo of Jayson Werth by Icon SMI

Therein lies the problem. In order to keep Werth using this scenario, the Phillies would need to ADD $15-17 million to keep him. There is a greater chance that you will see Charlie Manuel playing right field than there is for the Phillies to bump their payroll to $156 million.

The moral of this story is that Ruben Amaro better be pretty darn creative if he wants to keep Werth in Phillies pinstripes.

Matt Garza-Jeff Niemann-David Price Photo by Icon SMI

The Rays have shown that the off-season moves they made are paying off. Led by the play of Evan Longoria and strong pitching they have jumped out to a 24-10 record, best in the majors. The pitching of Matt Garza and David Price has been impeccable, with 10-2 won loss record between them. This pair, can be dominant and run away from the pack in the AL East.

Staring close behind them are the Yankees. Given the string of injuries and the ineffective pitching of Javier Vasquez, the fact that the Yankees are stalking the Rays, is an early season accomplishment. The loss of Curtis Granderson could play out to be a significant loss, especially if he has trouble coming back from that injury. Magnificed by the play of Johnny Damon this week in the series against the Tigers, many will question the front office’s reluctance to not pay the man!

Phil Hughes Photo by Icon SMI

However, the Yankees have been bolstered by the play of Brett Gardner, Francisco Cervelli, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher. Their consistent play has made the injuries less onerous. The pitching of Phil Hughes has been a pleasant surprise and Joba Chamberlain is finding a home as the setup and part-time closer. This will enable the Yankees to save Mariano for the stretch run in August and September.

The Yankees were the odds-on favorite of most to be there again in October, save the question marks going into the season. The age of the Core 4 not withstanding, the Yankees should be at the very least the wild card. It looks like the AL East championship will be between the Yanks and Rays.

Where does this leave the Red Sox? Right now, the play of that team up in Boston has been disappointing to say the least. The injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron has really hurt the ability of the Sox to move runners around the bases. The pitching has been terribly disappointing, with the significant investment the Sox have made in Matsusaka, Beckett and Lackey. As a Yankee fan, I do know the talent at Fenway, and fully expect the Sox to start making their presence felt in this race.

So the American League East is going to be interesting and will make for exciting baseball in 2010. In the end, one of these teams will be the American League representative in the Fall Classic and another will probably be the wild card representative.

Here are some quotes from a recent Boston Herald article, Harper Welcomes Ellsbury to the Record Book written by Sean McAdam.

Tommy wasn’t at Tuesday’s game, but he was watching and here is his comment upon watching the pitch that Ellsbury broke the record on, “I saw the ball pop out of the catcher’s glove,’’ said Harper this morning. “He got a good jump – I could see that. With Freddy Garcia, he’s pretty slow to the plate. It was a pretty good combination.’’

McAdam then asked how he felt about his 35 year record being broken and here’s what he had to say about that, “I’m glad for him,’’ said Harper. “I was there Sunday. I spoke with Jacoby Sunday. Over the course of the season, I would make some notes and every month or so, we would talk. But lately, he’d been going so well, there was no reason. I wished him luck. I’ve always told people that it’s good to know somebody personally who’s going to break (your record).’’

Harper was then asked about when he first started working with the man who would eventually break his record. “The minor league people wanted me to work with him,’’ Harper recalled. “He was playing in an intra-squad game. I went over and introduced myself to him and we went from there. I could see right there that he was eager to learn. We just hit it off. He’s a nice person and respectful.  I didn’t work with him on technique – just theory, when he should run. I told him about team philosophy.’’

To catch a glimpse of the potential of “the human spark plug”, please read what Harper told McAdam about the difference between their two styles. “His style was a lot different than mine,’’ said Harper. “I got a bigger lead.  As an instructor, you can’t make people do what you did. The main goal is to be safe at second. I got a bigger lead and stood a little taller. He has a crouch, like Rickey (Henderson).  He stays down and drives from there.’’

To further compare Ellsbury’s potential, all one has to do is take a look at his AL base stealing rival, LF Carl Crawford of the Rays and see how the two players compare statistically so far during this season (2009). As of this writing (Thursday afternoon, 8/27) Ellsbury has a 1 steal lead over Crawford (currently in his eighth season). It is my belief that in the next few seasons Ellsbury will easily top this season’s stolen base totals with improvements made in the following key statistics.  First, Crawford is currently hitting 21 points better than Ellsbury which translates into 10 more hits, which translates into 10 more possibilities to steal. Likewise, Crawford’s OBP is also 31 points higher, giving him that many more attempts more than Ellsbury.

So far, the player I like to call “the human spark plug” has been stealing bases at a clip of 11/month which would put him at 66 or so by the end of the season. What I am speculating is that if Ellsbury can improve upon his BA and OBP like he has shown possible from last season to this one, it is entirely possible to see him gain more opportunities to improve upon his SB numbers because he will be on base more. Therefore, I can see him stealing 80 or more bases next year and even reaching 100 in a few years from now. We have already seen him steal home against the Yankees, so the sky’s the limit, wouldn’t you say?

Hi all. Time for our monthly look in from north of the border. Actually, it is well past time.  Sorry,

What has happened in the world of the Jays in the last month? You might have heard that we didn’t trade Roy Halladay after the most publicized trade negotiations in the history of baseball. JP Riccardi stated at the start that he would only trade Doc if the price was right. I’m actually kind of proud of him that he stuck to his guns on that one.

We did trade Scott Rolen. Rolen was a favorite of mine, he is great fun to watch on the field. Defensively he makes at least one amazing play a series and he was hitting terrific for us this year. Apparently he wanted to be traded closer to home. I think JP did pretty well getting Edwin Encarnicion, who is not near his equal defensively, but he had 26 homers last year. He’s not been as good this year but then he hurt his hand at the start of the season. It will likely take till next year before he is 100% again.

But the best part of the trade is the 2 young pitchers we picked up: Josh Roenicke (son of Gary who played for the Orioles) is in our bullpen now and looks like he could have the stuff of a future closer and Zachry Stewart looks like he could be a terrific starter in the future. He’s in Triple-A now but likely will be in the fight for a starting job next year. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training he likely will be up at some point. For a trade that Rolen asked for, Riccardi did a good job of getting value for him.

What else did the Jays do? Oh yeah. We gave away 2 time All-Star Alex Rios for nothing. Rios has great talent. I guess the best way I could put it was to steal something Bill James wrote years ago about another underachiever: he’s a $100 million airport with a $50 control tower. His mind often doesn’t seem to be in the game and I’m not sure he is teachable. His contract really isn’t that bad but he wore out his welcome in Toronto. So when the White Sox claimed him the Jays said ‘go ahead’.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

On the field the Jays have finally called up Travis Snider again. Which is good since we aren’t playing for anything at least we ought to get a look at our best prospect. We also called up long time minor leaguer Randy Ruiz. Randy hit a homer in each of his first two games against the New York Yankees. He likely won’t be great but he can’t be worse than Kevin Millar has been for us.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Beyond that we are just playing out the string now. The good part is that we have 3 really good looking left-handed starting pitchers that are making our future starting rotation look like it could be good. Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Marc Rzepczynski (who we are calling Scrabble for his 40 point name) are all looking good. Cecil will likely have to be sat down for September to keep his innings pitched down to a reasonable amount this season. Each of the three look like they could be strong members of our rotation next year and in the future.  And we get to watch Doc pitch every 5th day.

There are rumors that Jay’s ownership are going to loosen the purse strings this off season. Some figure they will give the team $20 million more to play with for player salaries.  Other interesting off season stories will include the possibility that the Roy Halladay trade talks will heat up again and JP Riccardi’s future with the team will likely be a topic of conversation. JP’s been GM for 8 seasons and hasn’t lead the Jays into the playoffs yet.

As the Baltimore Orioles complete another disappointing season and prepare for 2010, there are 4 key questions that team president Andy MacPhail must answer.

Can The O’s Contend in 2010?

Before any other decisions about the team’s future can be addressed, MacPhail and the Baltimore front office must assess the team and realistically determine if they think the Orioles are capable of being a contender in 2010. If so, then they should be much more aggressive in the off-season looking for the final pieces to help the Orioles challenge in the toughest division in the game.

If MacPhail thinks the team is still not quite ready to make the push, then they will certainly approach the off-season differently as they continue grooming the talented young players on the club.

I know the AL East is the toughest division in the game and contending against the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees is a lot different than trying to compete with the Twins, Tigers and White Sox, but I personally think it is time for the Orioles to stop playing for the future and instead make the commitment to winning in 2010.

The team may not have a very good record in 2009, but the pieces are there to be a consistent contender. To accomplish that, MacPhail and the ownership must be committed to spending the money it will take to get the Orioles the top-line players needed to push them toward the top of the division.

Should Dave Trembley Be The Manager in 2010 and Beyond?

This is a tough, but critical question. Since taking over as manager of the Orioles during the 2007 season, Dave Trembley has posted a record of 156-213 (.423 winning percentage). The Orioles have had a winning record in only 3 of the 13 months during his tenure and have not had a winning month in 2009.

Trembley is a career baseball guy who finally earned his chance to be a major league manager after years toiling away in the minors and as a major league coach. He seems to be well liked and has earned praise for how he handles the young players.

However, one of the ingredients that will be crucial if the Orioles are to ever break out of their decade long losing streak is a new, winning attitude. That attitude must start at the top with a manager who exudes confidence and expects for the team to win every single night.

Given that he has been a part of so much losing, I’m not sure that Trembley can be the guy to create that new attitude in the locker room.

Who Will Be The Number One Starting Pitcher?

More than any other move the Orioles make prior to the 2010 season, who they envision being the “staff ace” will speak volumes as to whether the Orioles front office sees the team as a contender.

Securing a top-line starting pitcher to anchor a talented young pitching staff would illustrate a commitment to winning. In recent years the Orioles have filled their pitching staff primarily with retreads while waiting for their “young guns” to mature.

The “young guns” are now ready, but need a veteran “ace” to lead the way.

Jeremy Guthrie has been the number one starter the last two seasons and while Guthrie is a solid pitcher, he is not a quality number one pitcher. If the Orioles don’t make a significant pitching move and are looking for Guthrie or one of the young pitchers currently on the team to be the staff leader, then it will be another long year for the Birds.

There is no question that putting significant money into a starting pitcher is a little bit of a gamble. However, for the Orioles it would be one worth taking. This is a pitching staff that desperately needs a leader.

You could argue that except for brief periods in the tenures of Erik Bedard and Sidney Ponson, the Orioles have not had a real staff ace since Mike Mussina left following the 2000 season.

Mussina was one of those pitchers that you knew would give you a chance to win every single time he took the mound. The Orioles need someone like a Mussina or CC Sabathia, Johan Santana or Roy Halladay who grabs the ball every fifth day and makes things happen.

Acquiring Halladay and signing him to a long-term contract would potentially be a franchise-changing move for the Orioles.

Adding Halladay or another top-line veteran hurler would not only improve the Baltimore pitching staff, but also immediately provide a spark to the rest of the team. Making a move of that nature would signal to the entire franchise that the front office believes they can win.

Even if they are not ready or able to spend the money on a pitcher like Halladay, at the very least the Orioles need to bring in a pitcher like Derek Lowe or Brad Penny who may not be a staff ace, but is a solid pitcher and can be expected to regularly pitch good enough for the team to win.

Who Will Play Third Base?

What the Orioles do at third base will probably be contingent on whether they are making a playoff push in 2010 or building for 2011.

It seems apparent that Melvin Mora’s days as the Orioles third baseman are coming to a close. He has been a solid player for the team over the last decade, but his numbers have diminished in 2009.

Baltimore had hoped that Scott Moore would be the third baseman of the future, but that is looking more doubtful as he has struggled with injuries. Josh Bell, who was acquired in the George Sherrill trade, could be the third baseman of the future, but is still in need of seasoning.

The Orioles could get by in 2010 with Ty Wigginton as the regular and acquire another versatile infielder to provide depth.

However, if the Orioles are looking to contend, they will instead need to acquire a regular third baseman and then allow Wigginton to continue in his role as a role player, that is if he doesn’t now move over to first base with the recent departure of Huff to Detroit.

So, it is obvious that the off-season will be an interesting one for the Orioles as Andy MacPhail continues to orchestrate the future of the franchise.

He has made some great decisions over the last couple years and put the team in a position to eventually become a contender.

However, all will be forgotten if he cannot make the final moves that push the team over the top and back to contending in the AL East.

It is great to build for the future, but the time has come and McPhail needs to make the moves that illustrate to the Orioles and their fans that next year has finally arrived.

With seven weeks left in the baseball season, the young Florida Marlins seem to be poised to stay in the hunt down to the wire in the National League East. However, the question is whether the Marlins have the experience needed to catapult pass the Phillies and claim the title.

At the start of the season, it was clear that the Marlins had enough talent to be competitive in the National League East. However, with a roster that included only four players in their 30s (none of whom were regulars) the question was whether the Marlins had the leadership needed to make it through a tough 162 game season.

The recent acquisition of 30-year old first baseman Nick Johnson gives the team another solid offensive player while also providing some veteran clubhouse presence. Johnson has postseason experience having helped the New York Yankees reach the World Series in 2003.

He also is a solid left-handed bat and among the best in the game at getting on base. In his 13 games since joining the Marlins, he is hitting .308 with a home run, 6 RBIs and a .500 on base percentage.

Johnson joins a Marlins team that seems to have withstood their up-and-down early season to now emerge as a playoff contender.

After starting the season 11-1, the Marlins found themselves below .500 by mid-May. The team spent the next two months flirting with .500 before finally breaking the mark for good on July 21.

At that point they trailed the Phillies by 7 games in the NL East, but since them have shaved the advantage in half.

If there was any doubt about who the offensive leader is for the Marlins, those questions have been erased this season by Hanley Ramirez. The 25-year old shortstop has clearly established himself as one of the best players in the National League and will certainly be on the short list for the National League MVP Award.

Ramirez is hitting .356 with 18 home runs, 82 RBI, 36 doubles and 76 runs scored. He leads the national league in batting average and doubles and ranks among the top 10 in RBI, slugging percentage, runs scored and stolen bases.

Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85 ERA) has been the leader of the pitching staff, but Chris Volstad, Ricky Nolasco and Andrew Miller have all been solid starters.

The strength of the pitching staff has been in the middle relievers as Kiko Calero, Brian Sanches, Dan Meyer and Renyel Pinto have been lights out. Overall, the bullpen has an ERA of 3.82.

Given the experience the Phillies gained a year ago during their run to the World Series, it would be easy to assume that they will be able to withstand the charging Marlins and repeat as NL East Champions.

So far this season, Philadelphia holds a slight 7-5 advantage in head-to-head match ups, but the Marlins swept three straight in Philadelphia August 7-9 and punctuated the sweep with a 12-3 win in the final game.

The two teams don’t meet again until September 22 for a 3-game series in Miami. They also meet for the final 3 games of the season in Philadelphia.

The Marlins also have 10 games remaining against the Atlanta Braves, who lurk just 2 games behind the Marlins in the standings. Florida is 5-3 against the Braves so far this season.

Florida was in a similar position last season as they trailed the division leading New York Mets by 3 and a half games on August 15th. They went 21-17 over the remainder of the season, but ended up 7 and a half games out of first as the Phillies caught fire and passed the Mets on their way to the championship.

The expectation is that this time around with a year of experience as well as the addition of Johnson and others with a postseason resume, the Marlins will be able to stay in contention and perhaps this season be the team that gets hot down the stretch.

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Do we ever hear enough “Meet the Mess,” jokes? The line does become overplayed like the latest

Yes, it has been THAT type of season for those Metropolitans as they have now fallen 10 full games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Mets fans have to wonder if their team will even have a chance at reaching the postseason this year. And who could blame them for their mindset? When your perennial all-star at third base hits less than ten home runs by mid-August after putting up four consecutive years of 25-plus homers and over 100 RBIs, it must make one think that their team is jinxed. Wright is the one Met that has been without ailment this season and has played all but one of the team’s games this season. Much has been made of Wright’s lack of power this season but there have not been many answers to the surrounding questions. However, it would be entirely unfair to place the struggles if the Mets this season entirely on his shoulders.

July was not exactly the most encouraging month for the Mets as they finished up with a record of 11-13, but they did end the month on an encouraging note with 6 wins in their final 8 games. In that stretch, they completed a 4-game sweep of the resurgent Colorado Rockies and held them to just 5 runs during the series. As the old mantra goes, “Good pitching beats good pitching,” the Mets were able to string together some good starts from their otherwise disappointing starting staff. Not having lefty Oliver Perez for much of the first half certainly did not help matters but nevertheless, aside from ace Johan Santana, (13-8, 3.00 ERA), the Metropolitans could never muster up enough quality starts to keep them in contention.

John Maine, the other projected big arm of the Mets staff, has been out since June 12 with shoulder weakness in his right shoulder. Being as how Maine was not scheduled to return until September at the earliest, Mets officials are pondering keeping Maine out for the rest of the season as the team looks more than likely to miss the postseason for the third consecutive year. On top of that, the Mets also lost young prospect Jonathan Niese to a torn hamstring for the rest of the year. Livan Hernandez, (7-6, 5.08 ERA), has continually displayed a most frustrating inconsistency all season. Coming off a 3-game streak of quality starts, and after a 4-game losing streak which stretch back from late-June, Hernandez gave up 7 earned runs and 8 hits in his last outing which took place in Petco Park.

Image by paul.hadsall via Flickr

Gary Sheffield, who at one point was considered to be the saving grace of the Mets’ season, missed the entire second half of July with right hamstring issues and now can not even be expected to start on a regular basis. Manager Jerry Manuel has said that he would like to get Sheffield into at least 5 games a week, but with Sheffield’s right hamstring ready to act up at any instant, it is more than likely to appreciate even single appearances per week from Sheff. The former Florida Marlin does lead the team in slugging percentage (.478) and home runs (10) so taking his bat out of the lineup certainly takes the bite out of a lineup which currently sits at 12th in the National League in runs per game (4.31). Compare that to division leaders Philadelphia (5.22) and you have almost a full run difference per game.

This year’s race for the NL East was supposed to be hotter than ever between the Mets and the Phillies as the Mets boasted a bolstered bullpen, a lineup only improved with the addition of Sheffield, the Mets were poised to finally take back the division crown. Six months later and many Mets faithful might have to come to the realization that the all-desired NL East crown will have to wait until at least next year. Blame whatever you would like, the lack of team chemistry, the injuries, any of it. It all still equates to a disappointing season for the boys from Queens.

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The Yankees went 18-9 in July, with a phenomenal 13-3 home record. But the month wasn’t all fireworks and picnics for the Bombers, who ended the month in first place.

The Yanks started the month in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. Then they had their usual hellish games against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, with the team’s longtime nemesis sweeping the Yanks in the last series before the All-Star Break.

Fortunately for Yankee fans, the Bombers gave them a homestand to remember after the break, winning 9 of 10 games. The Yanks swept 3 teams – Minnesota, Detroit, and Baltimore, and beat Oakland 3 games to 1.

Two other things delighted fans during that homestand. First was Old Timers’ Day. The highlight was seeing Don Zimmer cheered on his return after the coach quit the team in a huff 6 years ago. Some fans wondered whether his return to Old Timers’ Day would reverse the alleged Curse of Zim – the Yankees haven’t made it out to the World Series since his resignation after the 2003 season.

The other non-game related highlight of the Yankees’ homestand was the Yankees first annual HOPE Week. HOPE, which stands for Helping Others Persevere & Excel, brought every single Yankee player into the community to help and honor others, and brought those honored into the stadium to see games in person. The Yanks’ heartwarming events included putting on a nighttime carnival at the stadium for chidren who can’t be exposed to sunlight, and brightening the day of an Army veteran with ALS. It was fitting that the Yanks won every HOPE Week game, and that the players got high-fives on the field after each win from the people they honored.

After this tremendous home series – the best for the Bombers this year – the Yanks won 2 out of 3 against Tampa Bay on the road. But Chicago wasn’t their kind of town – they finished the month with 2 losses against the White Sox.

Image via Wikipedia

Joba Chamberlain, who had a disappointing first half, with a lethargic pace, strike-zone nibbling, and arguments with his catchers, turned it around in July. After the All-Star Break, Joba became Joba again, with 3 electric wins in a row, giving up only 2 runs and 8 hits in 21.2 innings. And in all 3 games, he made it past the sixth inning, something he had struggled with all season.

Another Yankee pitcher having a great July was A.J. Burnett. He went 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 5 July games and proved to be one of the Yankees’ best additions this year. Derek Jeter was July’s hitting star, with a .438 OBP and a .357 batting average.

The end of July means a flurry of trades in baseball, but the Yanks didn’t do much during the trading deadline – supersub Jerry Hairston Jr. was the only pickup. However, they did get great production from Eric Hinske, a player they traded for at the end of June. Hinske had 7 hits (5 of them homers) in just 21 July at-bats.

On the down side, Chien-Ming Wang went to see Dr. James Andrews and was diagnosed with a shoulder injury. The pitcher underwent arthoscopic surgery and could be out for as long as a year.

But all in all, July gave the Yankees a lot to hope about, in more ways than one.

To save you, the reader, from any boring details I will only look at the catchers who have appeared in over 40 games and are hitting .250 or better. I then looked at the scouting reports from Sox Prospects.com on those top hitting catchers to get a feel for their defensive ability.

I looked at the stats of these catchers from AAA Pawtucket, AA Portland, A Advanced Salem, A Greenville, A Short Season Lowell & R Ft. Myers through 7/29/09.

This whittled the list down to 4 catchers, 2 of whom are still in level A ball, we’ll start with them. The other 2 come from both Portland and Pawtucket.

Tim Federowicz

After 76 games between single A Greenville (55 games) and Salem Advanced (21 games), Federowicz had some pretty impressive numbers. He scored 43 runs on 94 hits (most than any other catcher in the Sox system),  24 of those were doubles and 11 were HRs (most than any other catcher in the Red Sox system), while knocking in 40 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .278 with an OBP of only .316 with 2 SBs. Unfortunately, he also has the most errors than any other catcher in the system with 8. Another mark against him is hi BB/K ratio of 18/53.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Behind the plate, Federowicz presently is above average defensively, and has the tools to develop into a very good major league defensive catcher. Extremely strong and accurate arm with a quick release.  Outstanding at throwing runners out.  Calls a good game and handles the pitching staff well.  Glovework can use a little bit of improvement.

Luis Exposito

Exposito has played all of his 74 games in single A Salem Advanced and most of his numbers, except for runs, hits and HRs, are improvements from Federowicz. He scored only 28 runs on 78 hits, 24 of those were doubles, 1 triple and 6 were HRs (second most than any other catcher in the Red Sox system), while knocking in 45 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .279 with an OBP of .338 with 3 SBs. Unfortunately, he also has the second most errors than any other catcher in the system with 7. Another mark against him is hi BB/K ratio of 23/48.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Behind the plate, Exposito has tremendous catcher’s tools, including very good blocking skills, a strong arm, great instincts, and outstanding game calling ability.  However, he could use some improvement with his glovework and his throwing accuracy.  Gunned down 28.5% of attempted base stealers in 2008, which is below average.

Juan Apodaca

Apodaca has played all of his 41 games in AA Portland where he has scored 19 runs on 35 hits, 9 of them being doubles and 2 HRs while knocking in 17 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .250 with an OBP of .325 with 1 SB. He has 4 errors from behind the plate and another mark against him is his BB/K ratio of 14/34.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Apodaca has good catching skills and a strong arm.  Works with pitchers well.

Mark Wagner

Wagner is currently in Triple A Pawtucket where he has played in 16 games and is currently catching knuckleballer Charlie Zink. He played 42 games in AA Portland. He has scored a total of 26 runs on 58 hits, 25 of them being doubles and 3 HRs while knocking in 26 RBIs. He also hit for an average of .256 with an OBP of .334 with 1 SB. He has only 1 error from behind the plate and that’s after catching Zink. He also sports a BB/K ratio of 32/37. Also worthy to not are his AA/AAA splits. He hit .301 with an OBP of .410 and a BB/K ratio of 28/26 in Portland in those 42 games. In the 16 games in Pawtucket so far, he has only hit .211 with an OBP of .258 and a BB/K ratio of 4/11. I wonder how much of his adjustments in Pawtucket have to do with working on catching the knuckleball.

Here’s the scouting report on his ability behind the plate (from Sox Prospects.com):

Good defensive catcher with a sturdy frame.  Excellent at throwing runners out.  Average at blocking balls in the dirt and catching mistake pitches off the plate.  Calls a good game, but needs to improve framing pitches.  Nimble behind the plate, looks very good fielding bunts.  Has the potential to be an excellent defensive catcher at the major league level.  He is said to be an extremely hard worker with strong leadership ability.

My Analysis

Federowicz has to work on his glove work (8 errors) as was noted in the scouting report above. In my opinion, this is critical to a catcher’s job security, but maybe this can be improved along with his plate discipline. I do like what his bat brings to the table, especially his power numbers. Other than that and MiLB seasoning, he might be a viable option in 3 or 4 years. Unfortunately, it would be unwise to play more than another year with Varitek as the Red Sox starting catcher.

Exposito, I am told, is high up on the prospect list internally for the Red Sox. He too needs to strengthen his glove work (7 errors) and after reading his scouting report, I wonder how many of those errors were throwing related. Other than that, the scouts have given him glowing reviews defensively and with a little more plate discipline, he would be a very good offensive catcher in the majors.

Apodaca is not mentioned as highly by the scouts defensively as the rest of these guys are, but he is now the starting catcher I believe in Portland so he’ll be a player to look out for in the second half to see if his defense improves. His bat alone isn’t good enough to make it.

If Wagner can bring his offensive numbers closer to his Portland totals with more games under his belt, along with his ability to catch Zink (barring no obvious hiccups), he just might get called up to Boston in September. The only player in his way is current Pawtucket catcher Dusty Brown and Brown would need one of two things to happen in order to block Wagner. Either Wagner struggles to hit like he did in Portland or Brown starts hitting at least 20 to 30 points higher than he is currently. The only knock the scouts had on Wagner behind the plate was in framing pitches and I assume that can easily be learned.

Honorable Mention

John Otness is currently playing at AAA Pawtucket after starting the year in AA Portland. He is having a good offensive year so far, but doesn’t seem to be too high on the Red Sox depth chart at the catcher position.