Photo of Jayson Werth by Icon SMI

Mere moments after Ryan Howard struck out to finish the Phillies season, the focus quickly shifted to Jayson Werth and the Phillies’ payroll. Will or won’t the Phillies keep Werth? Before even considering re-signing Werth, we need to examine the Phillies payroll.

A quick look at the payroll provides a clear answer.

According to USAToday.com, the Phillies 2010 payroll was $141.928 million. Excluding arbitration increases, the Phillies will immediately add $16.55 million just to maintain players under contract.

Now let’s look at salaries we can drop from the Phillies roster. Here is a list of free agents and option players…

Phillies free agents:

Jayson Werth
Jamie Moyer
Chad Durbin
Contreras
Sweeney

Phillies option player:

JC Romero – $4.5 million club option in 2011 with $250,000 buyout

Let’s assume that the Phillies will allow Jayson Werth and Jamie Moyer walk away. It is unlikely the Phils will exercise JC Romero’s option for 4.5 million next year and will instead buy him out for $250k. And for simplicity sake, let’s say we keep Durbin, Contreras, and Sweeney at the same salary (their salaries shouldn’t change much anyway). This would give the Phillies an extra $17.75 million.

In this scenario in which the Phillies add $16.55 million for increasing contracts and remove $17.75 million, the Phillies would have an extra $1.2 million to add a right fielder, one starter, and one reliever.

Inserting Domonic Brown in right, Kyle Kendrick as the number 5 starter, and grabbing another reliever for $1.2 million brings the Phils to essentially the same payroll next year.

Photo of Jayson Werth by Icon SMI

Therein lies the problem. In order to keep Werth using this scenario, the Phillies would need to ADD $15-17 million to keep him. There is a greater chance that you will see Charlie Manuel playing right field than there is for the Phillies to bump their payroll to $156 million.

The moral of this story is that Ruben Amaro better be pretty darn creative if he wants to keep Werth in Phillies pinstripes.

Especially in a poor free agent class, where there isn’t a true standout top free-agent, teams may hold their money in hopes of signing Joe Mauer, who seems to be destined to take over for Victor Martinez, who will likely supplant Jason Varitek this year in Boston.

But Mauer is a free agent after the 2010 season, and the Twins could look to move the switch-hitting catcher at some point before the season, or leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Look for the Yankees to attempt to unload their once-bare proverbial cupboard of farm talent in hopes of acquiring baseball’s top catcher.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

1. Miguel Olivo, 31 years old

Olivo was once a key piece in a trade that sent Freddy Garcia to the White Sox. He became a pariah in Seattle, as he and Jeremy Reed struggled at the big league level with the Mariners. Since leaving Seattle though, he’s begun to realize his potential.

A short stint with the Padres preceded two years in Florida, where Olivo re-established himself as a viable catcher prospect. He then transferred to the Royals—usually the final resting place for jettisoned Mariners. Olivo’s 2009 campaign boasted impressive numbers, including a .241 ISO and a .262/.334/.405 line for opposing hitters while Olivo was behind the plate, far better than the other two catchers the Royals fielded, and on a pitching staff that was pretty shaky apart from Zack Greinke.

2. Bengie Molina, 35 years old

The middle brother of the “Catching Molina brothers” becomes a free agent this offseason. Molina has transformed himself from a soft-hitting, defensive-minded backstop to a guy with some pop in his bat. Molina won two straight Gold Glove Awards in 2002 and 2003, when he played with the then-Anaheim Angels, but had only 19 homeruns and 42 doubles in the seasons combined.

In Molina’s last two seasons with the Giants have netted 36 home runs and 58 doubles. Molina would rank much higher, but he carries Type A status, something that caused several highly ranked free agents to remain unsigned for most of last year’s offseason. While Molina is a valuable catcher, his value as a free agent is extremely limited by the compensation that his signing team will have to surrender.

3. Yorvit Torrealba, 31 years old

Torrealba lost his role as the Rockies starting catcher to Chris Ianetta in 2008. The team has always struggled to maintain consistent starting pitching though, and what the team gained in Ianetta’s power and offensive potential, it would appear they lost on defense.

It would be simple to just blame Ianetta for the team’s 2008 struggles, and give credit to Torrealba for their 2007 success, but 2009 may have told a more accurate story. The team was 36-25 in games that Torrealba started, including 23 games after Sept. 1. Also, Rockies pitchers held batters to a .253/.327/.391 line with Torrealba behind the plate compared to .266/.330/.418 with Ianetta.

4. Rod Barajas, 34 years old

Rod Barajas is the only catcher I know of that has caught for Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Jamie Moyer. Apart from his stint in Texas Barajas has caught a legend in every stop.

Barajas may not be the most intriguing offensive player, and has earned most of his money on the defensive side, but Barajas has hit 30 home runs and 42 doubles in the past two seasons.

5. Jason Kendall, 36 years old

Jason Kendall

Kendall is no longer the speedy, toolsy catcher that once threatened to revolutionize the position in the late 90’s. He’s probably not even the dimished, post-gruesome-ankle injury version of himself anymore. In fact, Kendall has turned into a pretty non-descript offensive player, boasting a .244/.329/.315 line in his last two seasons with Milwaukee.

The stats that jump out though, beyond Kendall’s average-to-above-average defense, are that he’s played 282 games in those two seasons, and posted 49 doubles and 92 walks. Kendall’s been a model of durability despite the one gruesome injury, playing 130 games in each season as a pro besides his injury shortened 1999 season, and 150 or more games in five seasons, including 2008.

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I was going to provide a run down of the future at shortstop (SS) for the Boston Red Sox, but after my research was done, I found out that none of the top 6 players at this position were hitting over .249 as of Thursday, August 28th.

Although Yamaico Navarro did hit for a .319 BA in his 23 games at Single A Salem. The scouting report on his defensive ability (taken from Sox Prospects) had this to say, “In the field, he plays 2B, 3B, and SS more than adequately, with a sure glove, an above average arm, and decent fluidity. He has had some problems with executing double plays, but that seems to be improving.  Regardless, he’s always entertaining to watch, and turns a lot of big league gems with his glove. He has an Ozzie Smith-like electricity in the field.” Plus he was traded to the Reds to reaquire Alex Gonzalez.

Aside from Navarro, Casey Kelly has hit .240 since joining the Single A affiliate in Greenville after pitching the whole first half of his season. Neither the organization or Kelly himself has determined if he will become a pitcher or a SS. So while both sides decide upon how to best use the 2008 1st round pick, The scouting report on his defensive ability (taken from Sox Prospects) had this to say,”Defensively, Kelly has excellent range and shows fluid movements in the field. Great glove and a strong, accurate arm.  Has the potential to be an elite defensive player at the major league level.”

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

Therefore, in my opinion, it is in the Red Sox best interest in the short term to fill this position with either a healthy Jed Lowrie (currently on the DL again), pick up the option on newly acquired Alex Gonzalez, or make a trade for a player better than both of them. A trade may be their best move if they are unsure about the ability of Lowrie to bounce back from this injury plagued season due to the weak field of free agents this off season.

Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, we have the list below of free agent SS after this season. The number in parenthesis is the players age.

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (35)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Adam Everett (33)
Chris Gomez (39)
Alex Gonzalez (32) – $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Khalil Greene (30)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
John McDonald (35)
Marco Scutaro (34)
Miguel Tejada (36)
Omar Vizquel (43)
Jack Wilson (32) – $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout

The only other desirable option via free agency would seem to be Orlando Cabrera, currently with the Twins, but the Sox have already declined to resign him once before after the 2004 season. This is still a mystery to most as Cabrera did play well for them after he was traded on into the playoffs. Then again, they also declined to resign Alex Gonzalez after his previous year in Boston too, and here he is again.

What do you, the readers think they should do at SS for the 2010 season? Let your voice be heard in the comments section below!

I have heard rumors that the Tigers are interested in SS Julio Lugo in exchange for either SP Dontrelle “D-Train” Willis or SP Nate Robertson. Theo, pull the trigger no matter which one of these guys they offer, but especially if it’s Robertson!

Are the Red Sox serious about acquiring 1B Mark Teixeira? Personally, I don’t think so!

CF Coco Crisp has been mentioned in trades with the following teams: SD Padres and the Chicago Cubs. Just don’t trade him for Padres SS K. Greene. Sure he has power out of the SS position, but at the expense of BA and OBP.

They need a young catcher. The Rangers have a few in Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden (Teagarden is the preferred choice in my book) and the World Champion Phillies have a good one at AAA, too in Lou Marson.

Free Agents

Top priority: If super agent Scott Boras doesn’t price him out of the Red Sox allowable price range for a 36 year old catcher and one who’s bat is in decline, then resigning captain Jason Varitek for another few years must get done! He is invaluable to a pitching staff even though he has a below average arm. They will still need a young catcher for him to mentor along the next few years if he wants to extend his career beyond two years. This will allow him to take an additional day off during the week than the typical 1 on every 5 games and it will further advance the development of the future Sox catcher.

Starting Pitchers: Is there a possibility that Schilling is in a Red Sox uniform in 2009? Probably not, but will he play a full season or start in May, ala Clemens? Does Derek Lowe come back to end his career in Boston? I for one, will be split over this one if he comes back. Will Boston be in the CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett sweepstakes? Why not?!

Relief Pitchers: No one currently on the free agent market really excites me here.

1B: a backup who can play on a regular basis due to the uncertainty of Mike Lowell (3B) after his to hip surgery, is a necessity. This may seem strange, but the best options currently on the free agent market would be former Sox Kevin Millar and Tony Clark.

SS: I would go after Rafael Furcal, but no one else. If they don’t get Furcal, I’d just stick with Lowrie.

OF: with Kotsay (1B/OF) probably not returning (although he’d be the perfect option in Boston) in lieu of a starting job elsewhere, and the possibility of a trade involving Crisp (mentioned above), the Sox will need a 4th outfielder. Im my opinion, if he can stay healthy, Rocco Baldelli would be a great fit in Boston. If not, why not bring back Trot Nixon. Or better yet, both Nixon and Baldelli?!

UPDATE as of 11/19/08

Boston has traded OF Coco Crisp to the Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez. For more details on this trade go to MLB.com to see how this right-hander addresses Boston’s need for bullpen help.

As always, please share your thoughts with us in the comments…

Here’s a link to the list of Type A and B Free Agents via ESPN and Keith Law.

Here’s a link to the latest rumors regarding the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. Should they keep Burrell, and if not, who should be his replacement? Reunite Manny Ramirez with Charlie Manual? Go after Matt Holliday? Or how about Ken Griffey Jr.?

Here’s a link to the latest rumors regarding the Boston Red Sox. Do they keep Varitek? What do they do with SS Lugo and CF Crisp? Should Masterson start or stay in relief (a question the Yankees are trying to decide upon with Joba Chamberlin); and what does Masterson prefer?

These are some of the rumors buzzing around the Chicago Cubs organization. They are eying pitchers and, of course, 2B Brian Roberts of Baltimore once again. I, for one, hope that a deal for Roberts goes through! If for no other reason as to stop hearing about the possibilities, it’s getting tired already.

MLB Trade Rumors listed the latest today from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Does anyone see a team giving Lofton a job at his age after not playing at all in 2008? And why did he not play in 2008, he could have helped some team in a platoon role if not full time (if you ask me)?

Last, but not least, here’s the latest Jake Peavy rumors. As you may already know, he does NOT want to pitch in the AL. Does he like to hit that much or is he affraid to pitc in the AL? Share with me your thoughts on this issue!