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If there’s one thing that separates good fantasy baseball managers from the greats ones, it’s the ability to spot start.

Having at least one or two open roster spots, (especially in leagues with 12 teams or less) gives you an incredible advantage over the competition. This allows you to strategically spot start players who have favorable match ups

Just knowing this handy little secret, however, isn’t enough to give you an edge; you must know how to detect a good spot start candidate.

So what should you look for in a potential spot start? Well, I’m glad you asked.

Home/road splits are very useful in picking out a good spot start, as are career numbers against the player’s upcoming opponent. Let me give you an example.

Clayton Richard owns a 4.49 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 100 1/3 innings with the White Sox and Padres this season. Based on these totals, you wouldn’t consider starting him at Milwaukee on Tuesday, but you would be wrong not to.

In 52 innings on the road this season, Richard boasts a 3.98 ERA, opposed to his 5.03 mark at home in 48 1/3 innings.

In two previous starts against the Brewers this season, Richard has allowed just one earned run on six hits in 10 2/3 innings.

Further, Milwaukee has batted a measly .246 against lefties this season, and Richard just so happens to be a southpaw.

The most encouraging sign is Richard’s recent success. In his last 27 2/3 innings pitched, (four starts, two with the White Sox and two with the Padres) the 25-year-old has posted a 1.95 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 20 strikeouts.

Everything points to Richard being a great spot start Tuesday against the Brew Crew. If you have the extra roster spot and could use a solid outing, make the move.

Andy Pettitte is scheduled to start on Friday at Seattle; a match up that greatly favors the 37-year-old lefty.

Pettitte has been much better away from the new Yankee Stadium this season, posting a 3.19 ERA on the road, opposed to a 5.28 total at home.

His only previous start against Seattle this season was a good one; seven strong innings in which he allowed just two earned runs on six hits and one walk, while striking out five.

Like Richard, Pettitte has been very good recently. A season 4.35 ERA and 1.43 WHIP isn’t usually something you’d want on your team for the stretch run, but some light research tells a much different story.

Since the All-Star Break, Pettitte has been fantastic, pitching 33 2/3 innings over five starts, posting a 33/9 K/BB ratio, with a stellar 1.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Bottom line: you want Pettitte on your roster for his start Thursday at Seattle.

The great thing about spot starting pitchers is that you can do it everyday of the week. Spot starting hitters, on the other hand, isn’t quite as easy.

If you haven’t noticed, MLB doesn’t typically field a full schedule on Mondays and Thursdays. This generally leaves several starting spots open on your fantasy team, which creates a great opportunity to spot start a hitter (or two).

So how do you know if hitter A is a good spot start or not?

Home/road splits are useful, as well as career totals at the ballpark that’s hosting the game in question. The most important stat, however, is the hitter’s career totals against the scheduled starting pitcher.

Here are a few good examples for Monday:

In 22 career at-bats against Brad Penny, Placido Polanco has eight hits, (.364 AVG) a HR, and four RBI to go along with two walks and zero strikeouts.

J.D. Drew is an even better spot start, as he owns Edwin Jackson to the tune of a .429 average, (6-for-14) with four doubles, three RBI and four walks.

If you have an open spot in your lineup for Monday, either of these two would be real good spot starts.

Keep this nifty little trick in mind as the final weeks of the fantasy regular season wind down. Taking advantage of favorable spot starts could make a huge difference in your playoff positioning. Good luck!

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The

It is inevitable that every season each team will have one pitcher who goes out every start and provides a quality performance, but for some unlucky reason seems to always be out there while his team forgets to bring their bats to the stadium.

In recent years, the unlucky pitcher for the Orioles has usually been Jeremy Guthrie. However, this season that distinction has fallen to the young rookie.

It didn’t start out that way as Baltimore scored 10 runs to help Bergesen defeat the White Sox in his major league debut. They scored five or more runs in nine of his first 13 starts, including 11 run outbursts against the Braves and Nationals.

Unfortunately, the tide has turned as the Orioles have scored only eight runs in his last four starts with Bergesen registering one win and three losses despite allowing a total of only 10 earned runs in those games.

His stretch of bad luck began on July 1, the day after Baltimore made an amazing 10-run rally to defeat the Boston Red Sox. Bergesen allowed only one run in eight innings and seemed poised to earn his sixth victory before Boston rallied in the ninth inning and went on to steal one away from the O’s.

Since that game, the Baltimore offense has struggled to score in games in which the rookie has taken the mound.

That was again the case Friday night against the Red Sox as Bergesen allowed three runs in six innings, but the Birds could manage only one unearned run against Brad Penney and the Boston bullpen.

It was another disappointing result for a rookie who has been a steady rock for a struggling pitching staff.

Bergesen has worked at least six innings in each of his last 11 starts while allowing more than three runs earned only once (four against Philadelphia in a game the Orioles came back to win).

For the season, Bergesen is now 6-5 with a 3.56 ERA. One reason for his success is that his strikeout total (59) is nearly double the number of walks he has allowed (30).

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With highly touted rookie Chris Tillman expected to make his major league debut in the next few days, the Baltimore bats need to start coming to life to give the growing crop of young pitchers some support.

Little could help the confidence of a young pitcher more than having his offense provide some early runs and allow him to settle into a groove. That certainly was the case for Bergesen early in the season and would be helpful to Tillman and the other young hurlers as they look to gain experience at the major league level.

The long-term success of the Orioles is betting on these young pitchers taking the Birds back to the days when they could bank on a quality start every night.

If they are going to be successful, the Orioles also need to hearken back to another trait of the great Baltimore teams of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, consistent offensive production.

Ricky Nolasco

After a breakout campaign in 2008 which saw him go 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings, the former fourth round pick of the Cubs appeared ready to claim a spot among the top 25 starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.

A horrific April and May, however, landed Nolasco in Triple-A after posting a 9.07 ERA through nine starts with the Marlins.

After two starts in the minors, the 26 year-old found himself back in the big leagues, and appears to be back to his old self.

In two starts since returning to Florida, Nolasco has posted a 2.77 ERA, and a 13/4 K/BB ratio in 13 innings.

A closer look at Nolasco’s splits suggest he has been the victim of very bad luck.

Through 11 starts with the Marlins this season, Nolasco’s BABIP stands at a whopping .399, compared to the .284 mark he posted in 2008, and his Major League career total of .314. His high BABIP is supported by a line drive percentage of 24.7, up from 18.8 percent in 2008. These totals are all sure to drop.

What’s most promising is Nolasco’s K/9 ratio, (7.94) which is in line with his 2008 total of 7.88. While his BB/9 ratio (2.70) is higher than his 2008 total of 1.78, it’s still fairly low.

Another encouraging sign in Nolasco’s FIP, (Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale) which measures only the factors that a pitcher is responsible for. Nolasco’s FIP is currently 4.11, a far cry from his actual ERA of 7.62, yet in line with his 3.77 FIP in 2008.

All of these factors lead me to believe Nolasco is prepared for a big turn around. Because of his horrific start, Nolasco’s 2008 totals are unattainable. However, I expect Nolasco to post a 3.50 ERA from here on out, which would give him the following year end totals:

Cole Hamels

After failing to post a quality start in April, Hamels rebounded nicely in May, pitching six or more innings, while allowing three runs or less in four of his five starts. After a complete game, five-hit shutout on June 4 against the Dodgers, the 2008 World Series MVP had fantasy owners believing the Cole Hamels we all know and love was back.

In his next start, however, Hamels allowed four runs on 11 hits in five innings against the Mets, leaving many scratching their heads.

A closer look at the numbers show that Hamels, like Nolasco, owns an unusually high BABIP of .348. Hamels’ career mark of .291 suggests success is in his future.

Hamels’ current line drive percentage of 25.9 is sure to drop as well, based on his career mark of 20.7 percent. His HR/FB ratio is also elevated, currently at 16.4 percent, compared to 12.4 percent for his career. This total is likely to drop.

What’s even better is that Hamels’ K/9 (8.09) is up from last year’s 7.76 mark, and in line with his career total of 8.53. His BB/9 is actually the lowest it’s ever been, currently at 1.73, compared to 2.32 for his career. Hamels also sports a stellar 4.67 K/BB ratio, which further supports my “bad luck” theory.

Hamels’ splits show he’s historically most effective after the All-Star Break. While his ERA and WHIP are currently 4.62 and 1.38, respectively, now is the best time to trade for him. I expect Hamels to post a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP from here on out. If you can get him for anything less than what a top-five starter would normally be worth, pull the trigger.

Koji Uehara

The 33 year-old Japanese pitcher has gone relatively unnoticed in his first year in the Major Leagues.

His 4.37 ERA is somewhat misleading because of the beating he took in Arlington in his second start of the season. If you discount that game, Uehara’s ERA is a respectable 3.55

In four starts against the A.L. East, (one against Boston and Tampa Bay, two against New York) Uehara has totaled a 2.56 ERA in 24 2/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts and just three walks.

Six of Uehara’s ten starts have qualified as quality starts. In one of the non-quality starts, he pitched three scoreless innings before being removed with a hamstring injury. In his return from the DL on June 11, he allowed just one hit through the first two innings, before a 27-minute rain delay broke his rhythm. After the delay, Uehara allowed three straight hits, and was removed after five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits.

What’s most impressive about Uehara is his control. Through 55 2/3 innings, he owns a sparkling 1.94 BB/9 rate. Uehara has issued two or less free passes in nine of his ten starts; with the aforementioned Texas game being the only blip on the radar.

If your opponents have failed to noticed Uehara’s success, scoop him up now before the secret gets out. Because he plays for Baltimore, a low win-total is likely to limit his value. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Uehara finish the season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a sub-1.25 WHIP, to go along with a solid K/9.

What do you think of my buy-low candidates, and who’s on your buy-low list?

Outfielder Trevor Crowe, catchers Carlos Santana and Chris Gimenez and pitcher Jeff Stevens from the Columbus Clippers AAA team were four of the five.

The fifth was pitcher Hector Rondon of the Kinston Indians Low A team.

Crowe, who was drafted out of the University of Arizona, has been one of the Tribe’s top prospects for about three years now. A natural outfielder, Crowe almost switched to a middle infield position two years ago when he was with the Indians’ AA squad, the Akron Aeros.

Santana has been receiving a lot of publicity over the last month as some in the system are wondering whether he can cut it at the big league level.

With the Indians considering a possible trade of Kelly Shoppach, or a larger one involving Victor Martinez, the Indians are seriously looking at the two catchers mentioned to see if they could compete at the big league level.

I have heard rumors that the Tigers are interested in SS Julio Lugo in exchange for either SP Dontrelle “D-Train” Willis or SP Nate Robertson. Theo, pull the trigger no matter which one of these guys they offer, but especially if it’s Robertson!

Are the Red Sox serious about acquiring 1B Mark Teixeira? Personally, I don’t think so!

CF Coco Crisp has been mentioned in trades with the following teams: SD Padres and the Chicago Cubs. Just don’t trade him for Padres SS K. Greene. Sure he has power out of the SS position, but at the expense of BA and OBP.

They need a young catcher. The Rangers have a few in Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden (Teagarden is the preferred choice in my book) and the World Champion Phillies have a good one at AAA, too in Lou Marson.

Free Agents

Top priority: If super agent Scott Boras doesn’t price him out of the Red Sox allowable price range for a 36 year old catcher and one who’s bat is in decline, then resigning captain Jason Varitek for another few years must get done! He is invaluable to a pitching staff even though he has a below average arm. They will still need a young catcher for him to mentor along the next few years if he wants to extend his career beyond two years. This will allow him to take an additional day off during the week than the typical 1 on every 5 games and it will further advance the development of the future Sox catcher.

Starting Pitchers: Is there a possibility that Schilling is in a Red Sox uniform in 2009? Probably not, but will he play a full season or start in May, ala Clemens? Does Derek Lowe come back to end his career in Boston? I for one, will be split over this one if he comes back. Will Boston be in the CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett sweepstakes? Why not?!

Relief Pitchers: No one currently on the free agent market really excites me here.

1B: a backup who can play on a regular basis due to the uncertainty of Mike Lowell (3B) after his to hip surgery, is a necessity. This may seem strange, but the best options currently on the free agent market would be former Sox Kevin Millar and Tony Clark.

SS: I would go after Rafael Furcal, but no one else. If they don’t get Furcal, I’d just stick with Lowrie.

OF: with Kotsay (1B/OF) probably not returning (although he’d be the perfect option in Boston) in lieu of a starting job elsewhere, and the possibility of a trade involving Crisp (mentioned above), the Sox will need a 4th outfielder. Im my opinion, if he can stay healthy, Rocco Baldelli would be a great fit in Boston. If not, why not bring back Trot Nixon. Or better yet, both Nixon and Baldelli?!

UPDATE as of 11/19/08

Boston has traded OF Coco Crisp to the Royals for RP Ramon Ramirez. For more details on this trade go to MLB.com to see how this right-hander addresses Boston’s need for bullpen help.

As always, please share your thoughts with us in the comments…