Matt Garza-Jeff Niemann-David Price Photo by Icon SMI

The Rays have shown that the off-season moves they made are paying off. Led by the play of Evan Longoria and strong pitching they have jumped out to a 24-10 record, best in the majors. The pitching of Matt Garza and David Price has been impeccable, with 10-2 won loss record between them. This pair, can be dominant and run away from the pack in the AL East.

Staring close behind them are the Yankees. Given the string of injuries and the ineffective pitching of Javier Vasquez, the fact that the Yankees are stalking the Rays, is an early season accomplishment. The loss of Curtis Granderson could play out to be a significant loss, especially if he has trouble coming back from that injury. Magnificed by the play of Johnny Damon this week in the series against the Tigers, many will question the front office’s reluctance to not pay the man!

Phil Hughes Photo by Icon SMI

However, the Yankees have been bolstered by the play of Brett Gardner, Francisco Cervelli, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher. Their consistent play has made the injuries less onerous. The pitching of Phil Hughes has been a pleasant surprise and Joba Chamberlain is finding a home as the setup and part-time closer. This will enable the Yankees to save Mariano for the stretch run in August and September.

The Yankees were the odds-on favorite of most to be there again in October, save the question marks going into the season. The age of the Core 4 not withstanding, the Yankees should be at the very least the wild card. It looks like the AL East championship will be between the Yanks and Rays.

Where does this leave the Red Sox? Right now, the play of that team up in Boston has been disappointing to say the least. The injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron has really hurt the ability of the Sox to move runners around the bases. The pitching has been terribly disappointing, with the significant investment the Sox have made in Matsusaka, Beckett and Lackey. As a Yankee fan, I do know the talent at Fenway, and fully expect the Sox to start making their presence felt in this race.

So the American League East is going to be interesting and will make for exciting baseball in 2010. In the end, one of these teams will be the American League representative in the Fall Classic and another will probably be the wild card representative.

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2. Can the Florida Marlins Win the NL East
3. The Current Mindset of the Rays

Picture taken from Yahoo Images

As a reminder, Dallas Braden did this against the major league’s hottest team, the Tampa Bay Rays who hold the best record in all of baseball at this point in the season!

Here’s what former A’s teammate Dana Eveland had to say about his friend’s perfect game, “I got to see the last couple innings,” Eveland said on Monday at Fenway Park. “I got a little choked up last night after that last out when his grandma came out on the field. I used to go to Stockton after games occasionally, and we’d hang out with his grandma,” Eveland said. He also commented on his feelings about seeing her on the field with her grandson. “So it was pretty cool to see all of that yesterday. It was nuts. That was pretty cool. His grandma raised him basically,” Eveland said. “Even when his mom was around, he spent a lot of time with his grandma. They were always really, really close, so that was really cool. I’m really happy for him.” Hat tip to By Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and his article, “Eveland a bit emotional over perfect Braden: Ex-teammate of A’s hurler recalls meeting famous grandma“.

One of 2010’s hottest pitchers who threw the year’s first no-hitter (on April 17th), Rockies SP Ubaldo Jimenez also spoke out about Braden’s accomplishment, even though the two do not know each other. “It’s great to see somebody else doing it, especially a perfect game — he’s been blessed,” Jimenez said. “It’s not easy to have one of those. It’s not even easy to throw three or four innings without a hit. Anyone can get a hit, even a pitcher, and they don’t have a pitcher hitting. Like I said, God wanted you to have one of those.” The Jimenez quote, and the next quotes cam from Alden Gonzalez’s article on MLB.com titled, “Baseball marvels at Braden’s perfect game: Players moved by left-hander’s Mother’s Day gem”

“I feel good about my no-hitter, but a perfect game, there is nothing like that,” said Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez, who hurled a no-no as a rookie in ‘06. “That’s being perfect. No walks. I’m proud for him.”

“He has to really pitch to do something that special,” said Brewers third-base coach Brad Fischer, who was in his final season as the A’s bullpen coach when Braden arrived in the Majors in ‘07. “He’s not just going to go out and blow them away. The fact he put a whole game together like that is very impressive.” Fischer admitted that “some alarms went off” when he first met Braden and saw “209″ scribbled on his cleats, but he eventually learned that “he’s a good kid. I don’t think there was ever any doubt about his makeup,” Fischer said. “He’s a tough kid. He was never fearful, and I think that works to his benefit. I’m happy for him. They’re never going to be able to take that away.”
“To see the madness that has ensued since, it’s surreal,” said Marlins reliever Dan Meyer, a former A’s pitcher who roomed with Braden at Triple-A and in the big leagues, even staying at his grandmother’s house one time. “I heard he did the ‘Today Show.’ I’m proud of him. Not only was he a teammate, he’s a real good friend of mine. To accomplish something that has only been done 19 times in the history of Major League Baseball, it’s amazing.”

For a good article on “Measuring just how unlikely Braden’s perfect game really was” from
Cliff Corcoran of SI.com, please follow the previously provided link.

And Bostonian Howard Ulman of SI.com added these final quotes from his piece “Oakland’s Braden is perfect against Rays“.

Picture also taken from Yahoo Images

First, from the man of the hour, Dallas Braden speaks about his day on Sunday, “Pretty cool,” I don’t know what to think about it just yet. There’s definitely a select group. I’d like to have a career more than today.”

Then there was this comment from Braden’s favorite 3B Alex Rodriguez, “I’ve learned in my career that it’s always better to be remembered for some of the good things you do on the field, and good for him,” Rodriguez said before facing Boston. ” He threw a perfect game. And, even better, he beat the Rays.”
He’s a gem from the Ray’s skipper, “I’m a bad omen. That’s the third perfect game and fourth no-hitter I’ve been on the wrong side of,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said. ” When Kenny Rogers threw his I was the bullpen coach. If you want to see another one, just follow me around.”
Braden had this to say about Mother’s Days since his mother passed away, “It hasn’t been a joyous day for me in a while,” Braden said. ” With my grandma in the stands, it makes it a lot better.” On Mother’s Day 2009, Braden was struck by a line drive off the bat of Blue Jays CF Vernon Wells and Braden had this to say about the two Mother’s Days. “You know, a year later you don’t expect anything like this,” he said. ” I’m just happy to be putting on the costume a year later.”

Then spoke of his past efforts, “Little League, I got a couple of them under my belt,” Braden said. ” In the bullpen, I’m damn near perfect every day.”

Braden, known for his quick whit, had this to say about his third baseman’s foul ball catch, going down the dugout steps in the 8th on a Carlos Pena batted ball. “I told him he needs to quit stealing my thunder,” Braden said. ” He makes ridiculous plays.”
There was also a rare quote from Sunday’s home plate umpire Jim Wolf on the day’s events. ” You do get caught up in it a little bit.”

And that caps off our recap of the historic event from May 9, 2010 (Mother’s Day). I hope you enjoyed it as much as I took writing it for you!

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Tuesday Afternoon Edition

@AmalieBenjamin: In today’s Globe: Red Sox notebook: Caught stealing? It remains a running gag – http://b.globe.com/drgvOT #redsox

@MLB_Monster: Lind starting to get back on track (source: CBS News): Blue Jays OF Adam Lind got two hits for the second time in … http://bit.ly/a1JVbL

@espnrangersblog & espn_durrett: Borbon should gain confidence from throw – http://tinyurl.com/y2llnoj &   Garko excited about return to Cleveland – http://tinyurl.com/y7u8s8t

@mlbtraderumors: Nationals Plan To Draft Bryce Harper http://bit.ly/a6C1Gp #mlb …would you?   &   Phillies In Talks With Pedro Martinez http://bit.ly/bTXHCI #mlb &   Fred Lewis Decision Coming Soon http://bit.ly/dh60vc #mlb &   Free Agent Racism? http://bit.ly/cpw8Mm #mlb

@JCRMarlinsbeat: New Florida Marlins Q&A on South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com http://shar.es/msIr6

@BJRains: Audio, video and text from Cardinals’ 5-0 win in home opener Monday | St. Louis Globe-Democrat: http://bit.ly/aoR2fE

@alexspeier: Today’s 5 Things We Learned: ugly start for #redsox preventing running game, Ortiz keeping Francona up at night, & c. http://bit.ly/cOIMX9

@MLB_Monster: Fantasy Rundown: No more seconds: Hill, Roberts join hobbled keystone brigade in busy Monday. http://bit.ly/ambVUY &   Tampa Bay Rays’ Andy Sonnanstine fills in well in a pinch (source: Topix.net): RHP Andy Sonnanstine got an unexpec… http://bit.ly/95akoF

@SI_JonHeyman: #yankees, led by arod and jeter, all run over to hug matsui after he gets his ring. very nice touch.

@TommyLasorda: http://twitpic.com/1fc8lo – Opening Day at Dodger Stadium. Where else would you rather be?!?!

@JasonHeyward: RT @michael_schlact: A new installment of my @MLB blog has now been posted at http://schlact.mlblogs.com/ I poured my heart out on this one.

@CC_Sabathia: CC pitches to Regis Philbin on Regis and Kelly : video http://bit.ly/cdi8XN &   RT @MLBLineDrives Regis Philbin took cuts against CC Sabathia today on streets of Manhattan. MLB Network will break down his swing tonight.

@MLBHomeRun: Yankees gets their rings from legends http://bit.ly/aMJbp1 #MLB #Baseball &   (here we go…) Orlando Hudson Believes Racism Is Why Jermaine Dye’s Unemployed http://bit.ly/aL5Xpy #MLB &   Strasburg pitching Friday http://bit.ly/ceXPX6 #MLB

@philliesnation: RT @ryanlawrence21: Jimmy Rollins update: MRI isn’t scheduled until this afternoon. Results won’t be known until this evening

@redsoxstories: Japanese female knuckleballer emulates Wakefield (AP) http://bit.ly/bQuxAs

@subwaysquawkers: Subway Squawkers – A Yankees-Mets Rivalry Blog: Getting in an “Empire State of Mind” for Yankee Opening Day http://bit.ly/9hfIht

@Mlbfreeagency: ind of contract will Carl Carwford generate on the free agent… http://bit.ly/aS1ZYO

@i94sports: Poll: Which pitcher will record more saves in 2010? Marmol, Jenks, Hoffman? http://i94sports.com/#pd_a_3045146

@websoulsurfer: Looks like #Padres will have 2nd lowest payroll in baseball again at $38.5 million. #Pirates lowest this season – http://ow.ly/1xJ6o

@detroit_tigers: Detroit Tigers Links: Al Kaline says rookie Austin Jackson is ‘going to be a superstar’ http://bit.ly/babOQ7

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@prorumors : Hank Blalock signs Minor League deal with Tampa Bay Rays http://goo.gl/fb/Qiue #topstories #contract #hankblalock

@steveslow: Chasing Sabermetric’s Holy Grail or, Another Stab at Valuing Catcher Defense http://sbnation.com/e/1127904 & Chasing the Grail, Part Two http://sbnation.com/e/1127922 & Updated my attempt at putting a UZR value on catcher defense. It’s only an estimate, but was fun to put together. http://tiny.cc/e6WrB

@MLBHomeRun: Spring preview: New stadium, different approach for Marlins http://bit.ly/br7QLQ #MLB #baseball

@sonsofsamhorn:#RedSox Post: Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez http://bit.ly/de99hF To me, this is a no brainer, Gonzo ALL the way!

@MLB_Monster: Furcal feeling good in 2010 (source: CBS News): Feeling better than he has in years, Dodgers SS Rafael Furcal is p… http://bit.ly/aMk8DY

@redsoxstories: Desert Drive: Lou Marson scoring points as Cleveland catcher (Yahoo! Sports) http://bit.ly/aCJoI6

@immortalkid (Fire Brand of the AL & NESN): Red Sox Miss Out on Dominican Prospect Who Signed With Sox, Lied About Age http://bit.ly/9nXOHu, Red Sox, Yankees ‘Continually Ignore Baseball’s Directives,’ Are ‘Arrogant’ http://bit.ly/9tjlRg & RT @espn: Sandy Alderson hired for Dominican http://bit.ly/9Mmm9c

@StatsGuru (Baseball Musings): New post: Albert Backing Down #albertpujols & New post: Probabilistic Model of Steals, Score Difference http://bit.ly/bbQZuU #probabilisticmodelofsteals

@jhamrahi: Ugh RT @dwthegreat: Joe Nathan has a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Will decide whether to have surgery within two weeks.

@HOVG: You, yes, YOU can help bring back the Youk Manchu! http://bit.ly/atVO8T #mlb #redsox #sblog

@Jerry_Remy: It’s John, Jerry’s partner.If u are walking by 1265 BoylstonSt.(behind Fenway) 2day, ask for me, I’ll show you new restaurant b4 it opens.

@sabr: HoF to mark Women’s History Month with special event on March 27 http://tinyurl.com/yfj2jqh

@Akadema: Akadema just completed filming on Yankee Clubhouse segment for Yes network. Look for it on how to make a baseball glove.

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The two former free agents are unmatched in this year’s class. This year’s class will be defined, for better or worse, by reclamation projects. Russell Branyan and Carlos Delgado have already been listed under the designated hitter category for free agents.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages

represent age on June 30, 2010

Adam LaRoche

1. Adam LaRoche, 30 years old

For a guy who boasts career numbers of .274/.343/.491, LaRoche moved around a lot last season. After being traded to the Pirates in a deal that brought Mike Gonzalez and Brent Lillibridge to Atlanta, LaRoche played two seasons with the Pirates before being dealt to the Red Sox, and eventually back to the Braves.

Upon his return to Atlanta, LaRoche caught fire. In the 57 games he played with the Braves this year he hit .325/.401/.557  in 212 plate appearances, and hit pretty well in the pitcher-friendly confines of Turner Field for all of 2009. LaRoche is an average defensive first baseman, so he isn’t an embarrassment at the position.

2. Nick Johnson, 31 years old

Johnson has been a tease since entering the majors. Once a top prospect with the Yankees, projected as a power hitter who would walk a ton, Johnson has only fulfilled on the latter description. At 6-3, 236 lbs, a .114 ISO would generally disqualify a first baseman from contention for any type of free agent haul.

But Johnson is two years removed from a season where he hit 46 doubles, 23 home runs, and walked 110 times in 628 plate appearances. In 2008 his season was shortened by injury, but if counted, he’s posted an OBP over .400 for four straight seasons. Health is the biggest concern for Johnson, but when healthy, he plays a pretty good first base also.

3. Hank Blalock, 29 years old

Once a third baseman, Blalock has fallen victim to a common issue that plagues third basemen, his body has started to break down. Blalock was a tremendous offensive third baseman, boasting a .269/.329/.465 line for his career from the left-handed batter’s box.

But in the past three seasons Blalock has missed 240 of a possible 486 games. He played only one game at third base in 2009, and hasn’t played more than 39 games at the position since 2006, when he played 122 games. In 1005 plate appearances in those three seasons though, he’s posted an ISO over .220 each season.

4. Aubrey Huff, 33 years old

In the three years Huff has spent in Baltimore, he’s sandwiched one really great year between two pretty nondescript years. His .304/.360/.552 line in 2008 was pretty stellar, the other two years are considerably worse. Huff has only had one other season comparable to his 2008 season, his 2004 season with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays when he was 27 years old.

But while years will certainly rob Huff of some of his lateral range and fielding ability, there could be reason to believe that he can still improve at first base. Huff was originally a third baseman, and saw his most action in a single season this year at the position. Even if he can’t stick at first, he’s a good buy-low designated hitter candidate on a short-term contract.

5. Eric Hinske, 32 years old

Like Huff and Blalock, Hinske came to the majors as a third baseman. But despite winning the Rookie of the Year award at the position in 2002 with the Toronto Blue Jays. He played over 1,000 innings at third in each of his first three seasons, and hasn’t played more than 265 since.

However, Hinske has a positive UZR/150 at first base in 1,366.2 career innings, and when given significant plate appearances, is generally an acceptable hitter. In all but one season (2004) when Hinske has posted an ISO over .190, and over .200 in two of those seasons.

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Warning: most of this ballot is going to surprise you. How do I know, because it surprised me! You see, I didn’t just use my eyes or even the traditional method/statistics to make up this ballot.

I used 11 statistical categories including defensive metrics & added some objective weight to some of them (multiplied them by either 10, 100 or 1000) in order to make them more relevant and useful. For example, I multiplied Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Range Factor per Game (RF/G) by 10; Walk to Strikeout Ratio (BB/K) by 100; and Batting Average (AVE), On Base Percentage (OBP) and Fielding Percentage (FP) by 1000. Add to these were the counting stats such as Runs (R), Homeruns (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB) and Runs Created (RC) based upon weighted On Base Average (wOBA) or simply wRC as found on Fangraphs.com.

So as you can see, I didn’t exactly set this up to provide a traditional selection of players and in fact, some of these guys wouldn’t even have made my top 15!

10) Franklin Gutierrez CF Seattle Mariners…1 point

What gets Gutierrez on this list is his ungodly UZR of 28.5 which was almost 10 points higher than the next rated player. In fact, I read somewhere that his power numbers were even down this year!

9) Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B Boston Red Sox…2 points

Forget about the fact that he played significant time at both first and third base (78 and 63), but he also played two games in LF, too. But none of this factored into this listing! The stats that got him onto this list were his RF/G of 7.9, his FP of .998, OBP of .413 and his runs scored of 99 and 94 RBI on 27 HR and 111.7 runs created.

Chone Figgins 3B Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim…3 points

A UZR of 14.5, .395 OBP with 42 SB and 114 runs scored with 105.1 runs created contributed to Chone’s listing here. I would not have added Figgins even to my top 20.

7) Carl Crawford LF Tampa Bay Rays…4 points

60 SB with 96 runs scored 101.6 runs created combined with a .988 FP and a UZR of 17.1 are what got Crawford here.

6) Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays…5 points

Tampa Bay scored the most players on this list with Evan “The Beast” Longoria stuck here in the middle. In only his second season he has impressive numbers starting off with the second highest UZR with 18.9, 108.7 runs created with 100 runs scored, 33 HR and 113 RBIs. 

5) Derek Jeter SS New York Yankees…6 points

With a FP of .986, runs created of 122.4 (for third on this list of the top 10) with 107 runs scored to go with a .406 OBP and 30 SB lead the Yankees captain onto this list.

4) Miguel Cabrera 1B Detroit Tigers…7 points

Believe it or not, Cabrera’s defense has a significant part to play in his being 4th on this list with a .995 FP and an 8.6 RF/G. Then add to that his 96 runs scored, 123.5 runs created, an AVE of .324, OBP of .396 to go along with 34 HR and 103 RBI.

3) Dustin Pedroia 2B Boston Red Sox…8 points

Here’s another player who I wouldn’t have even thought about for this list with his diminished numbers compared to last year and I’m a big Pedroia fan! But his numbers tell a different story with a UZR of 10.2 and a FP of .991 to go along with his runs created of 103.9 to go with his actual runs scored of 115. Add to that a great BB/K ratio of 1.64 (tops on this list and second in the Majors to only Pujols’ 1.80), .371 OBP and 20 SB do make quite a statement overall.

2) Ben Zobrist 2B/RF Tampa Bay Rays…9 points

Probably the most surprising name on an MVP listing is Zobrist, but this is not the only list I’m seen him towards the top of recently. His versatility should also be considered, but doesn’t factor in here as he can also play other positions than these two. His UZR is 15.6, a FP of .989 to go along with his career year offensively with 111.1 runs created, 27 HR, 91 RBI and runs scored with a .405 OBP.

1) Joe Mauer C/DH Minnesota Twins…14 points

Talk about increased power numbers, Mauer hit a career high 28 HRs! His previos high was 13 back in 2006. As a reminder, the catcher’s position doesn’t get a UZR score so he was at a disadvantage over the other position players on this list and I did not remember to factor that in with a league average! His other numbers are as follows…6.9 RF/G, .996 FP with offensive numbers such as 127.5 runs created, 94 runs scored, 96 RBI and his incredible .365 AVE .444 OBP and 1.21 BB/K ratio (second best on this list). Editor’s note: I stand corrected, as I now see Mauer as the best all around catcher in the game today! I have done my research since an earlier post on The Dugout Doctors. He was my choice no matter how I did this, but I am glad that this analysis proved that idea.

Honorable Mentions in order of appearance…

In my opinion, both of these players would have made my ballot if I had not gone to this much detail or even included defensive statistics. Both had over 30 HR and 100 RBI, a AVE of over .290 and OBP over .355 to go along with runs created over 100, FP over .990 and RF/G over 8.

Mark Teixeira 1B New York Yankees

Kendry Morales 1B Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

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The last month of the New York Yankees‘ season could have been anticlimactic – they essentially clinched the AL East when they swept the Boston Red Sox in four games in August. But the Bombers still ended up turning it on throughout the stretch, even when they rested players to tune up for October.

Here are the month’s most memorable moments:

* Beating the Angels three games out of four: In their September 14 makeup game in the Bronx, the Yankees played a running game reminiscent of their Anaheim nemesis, with Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez making a gutsy double steal. Then, when the Yanks returned to the Angels Stadium, where they were swept earlier this season, they surprised everyone by winning two out of three games of their September 21-23 series. The most shocking moment came when manager Joe Girardi used Ian Kennedy in relief in the series finale. Kennedy hadn’t pitched in the majors since suffering an aneurysm in his right arm earlier this year, and he had his work cut out for him with the Yankees clinging to a one-run lead. Radio announcer John Sterling said he was “flabbergasted” to see Kennedy in that situation. But Kennedy hung on, and the Yanks won the game – and the series.

* Yankees and Blue Jays brawl: Did Jorge Posada overreact to a pitch that didn’t even touch him? Of course he did. But the September 15 brawl with Toronto was surprisingly intense and brutal – but fun to watch. Even the usually peaceful Joe Girardi was caught up in the scrum. But there was a cost to the violence. Posada got a three-game suspsension – and a stiff neck – from the fight.

* The year of the walkoff continues: The Yankees had three walkoff wins in September, to end the season with 15 such wins. On September 8, Nick Swisher helped the Yankees sweep the Tampa Bay Rays with a walkoff homer. Then Francisco Cervelli, playing for the suspended Posada, hit a game-winning single against the Blue Jays September 16. But the most amazing walkoff win may have taken place on September 29. Despite the fact that most of the Yankee regulars were on the bench, the Bombers still eked out a walkoff win against Kansas City Royals pitcher Kyle Farnsworth. Rookie Juan Miranda got the game-winning hit – and only his second career RBI – in that game.

* Yankees sweep Boston, clinch AL East: It was hard to believe that this was the same Red Sox team that beat the Yankees eight games in a row earlier this year – or the same Yankees team, for that matter. Boston seemed to be going through the motions when playing the Yankees September 25-27 in the Bronx. Joba Chamberlain shut down the Red Sox Friday, and CC Sabathia dominated on Saturday. Then the Yanks swept the series – and clinched the AL East – against the Red Sox on Sunday.

* A-Rod’s A-Mazing Feat: Tampa Bay Manager Joe Maddon tried a little payback against the Yankees in their season finale, October 1-3. First, he had the Rays plunk Mark Teixeira that Friday, in retaliation for the Yankees ending Carlos Pena’s season with an HBP. Then, in the last game of the year, Maddon had Teixeira intentionally walked to load the bases, so that the Yankee slugger didn’t get a chance to take the AL lead in homers from Pena. But Rodriguez, the next batter, made Maddon and the Rays pay – he hit a grand slam. This, after his previous three-run homer in the inning, gave him 7 RBIs in the inning, an AL record, and gave the Yankees their 103rd victory. What a way to end the season.

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Tonight’s version of Friday Night Links will focus on a contest being run by our friends over at RAYS THE STAKES, a Tampa Bay Rays blog.

The winner of this contest will get an autographed JASON BARTLETT (Rays SS) Upper Deck baseball card. This contest is being provided by Rays the Stakes and Sports Memorabilia.com.

Here’s a link to the contest page at Rays the Stakes and Sports Memorabilia.com.

In order to be in contention to win you have to correctly guess the AL MVP to be entered into a random drawing to see who wins the Jason Bartlett autographed card from Rays The Stakes and Sports Memorabllia. Be sure to include your full name in your response.

Good Luck to all of you Tampa Bay Rays and Jason Bartlett fans out there!

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They’ve done it. I asked them to. I suggested it. But I didn’t expect them to do it. But they did it. I can’t believe they actually did it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have traded Scott Kazmir.

My logic at the beginning of the season was as sound then as it is now – the Rays are a pitching deep team who need help in other areas of the field, and Kazmir’s value will never be as high as it is right now. To be sure, the Rays waited for Kazmir to suffer through a bad season and some injuries before trading him, which probably hurt his value, but they traded him nonetheless, and the post-Scott Kazmir Era begins now in Tampa.

Before evaluating whether the Rays got quality return for Kazmir, we should determine whether or not the Rays are as pitching deep now as I thought they were when I initially proposed the trade. Back in March, the Rays were coming off of a season in which Andy Sonnanstine pitched a full season of solid ball at the major league level, Jamie Shields and Matt Garza both looked like potential aces, Jeff Niemann and J.P. Howell both looked ready to join the rotation, Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot dominated Triple-A, and David Price looked like the Next Great Major League Starter. The question wasn’t whether the Rays should trade Kazmir, but whether they should trade another one of these guys as well.

Truth be told, 2009 has not been kind to this crew. Sonnanstine absolutely struggled in his second year as a starter, and got himself demoted after posting a 6.61 ERA in 15 starts. His peripherals look straightened out in Triple-A, but he still has a 4.40 ERA down there. Is he the next Dave Bush?

Jamie Shields has had the type of season that Rays fans would love if not for the inconvenient fact that he was simply better last season. After posting a 4.00 K/BB ratio in 2008, that number has dropped to 2.91. He has given up almost as many homeruns as he did last season, and we still have a month to go. And after firing three complete games and two shutouts in 2008, he has yet to go the distance in 2009. Matt Garza has had almost the exact same season, except that his K/BB has gotten slightly better. His ERA has gone up slightly, he’s giving up more homeruns, and he is 7-9 so far after finishing 2008 at 11-9.

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

David Price has done exactly what we should have expected him to do – had a tough first full year after looking to possess all the promise in the world. He struggled early with his control, but has been fantastic in spurts. Sometimes it feels like you can literally watch him learn to pitch before your very eyes. His 4.63 ERA disguises his abundant talent, but this just hasn’t been the year for him to explode onto the scene.

Another factor that is new to the mix in 2009 is Jeremy Hellickson, a 22 year old righty drafted in the fourth round of the 2005 draft by the Rays. After dominating Single-A and Double-A in 2008 (162K/20BB in 152.0 innings), Hellickson has been great again at AA/AAA in 2009 (123/29 in 107.0). A deep pitching corps just got deeper.

As for the rest, it is a mixed bag. Jeff Niemann appears to be the Andy Sonnanstine of 2009 – very solid as a first-time full-time starter, but with numbers that indicate he could go either up or down next season. J.P Howell looked to move out of the pen and into the rotation this year, but instead moved out of middle relief and became the closer this year. And last year’s Triple-A duo Talbot and Davis have had mixed results – Talbot has only had ten starts this season and at 29 years old probably has the window closing on him, while Davis has essentially treaded water for the season in Triple-A, keeping his ERA low and his peripherals high in hopes of making the team next season.

So, essentially, the Rays’ front office saw a potent front four rotation for next season comprised of Shields, Garza, Price, and Niemann, and then a competition for the fifth spot between Sonnanstine, Davis, Hellickson, and maybe Talbot, and knew that they were paying Kazmir way too much money to not know what to expect from him for next season. Combine that with the fact that despite being 12 games over .500, they were irretrievable out of the division race behind the Yankees and the Red Sox, and this deal became a no-brainer.

Which is what I’ve been saying all season.

In return for Kazmir, the Angels sent Tampa two prospects, left-handed pitcher Alex Torres, infielder Matt Sweeney, plus a player to be named. I will freely admit that, while I wanted the Rays to trade Kazmir, this isn’t exactly what I had in mind. Matt Sweeney plays third base, a position currently occupied by last year’s Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria, and Alex Torres looks like a dandy prospect, but is yet another pitcher. My thought was that the Rays should be turning their pitching into talent at other positions, but this seems to turn pitching into talent at positions that are already occupied.

Truth be told, neither of these guys is going to get a look from the Rays until 2011, by which time the Rays may need to replace Pat Burrell at DH or Carlos Pena at first base, so maybe Sweeney’s (potential) arrival will be just in time. And you can never have enough pitching – who knows how long it will be before Garza or Shields becomes the next ready-to-move big name in Tampa. Nevertheless, this isn’t exactly the “help now” move I was hoping the Rays would make.

I guess it could have been worse – they could have ended up with Brandon Wood.

Back to Your Regularly Scheduled Program

On August 31, 2009, major league baseball teams are either in it, or out of it. As major league teams prepare to make their September call-ups, they are either calling guys up for a little help down the stretch, or calling guys up to get a look at who will be on the team the following season.

The bad news for the Rays is, they are out of it. The good news for the Rays is, of all the teams that are out of it, they are by far the best, and they are far better than some teams that are still in it (we’re looking at you, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and, yes, Detroit Tigers). But such is the life of an AL East team that doesn’t play in New York or Boston.

The Rays have lots to build on for next season, but also lots of question marks. For example, is Ben Zobrist for real? One could fathom Ben Zobrist becoming a minor household name by building upon the success he’s had this season, but one could also imagine him becoming obscure Tampa Bay Rays trivia ten years from now. Zobrist gives you lots of reasons to not believe his success – he has a radical home/road OPS split (1028/872), he has slumped in the second half of the season (.835 OPS in the second half after a 1012 in the first half), and at the age of 28, he’s never put up numbers before that match his first half performance.

Another question is this: will B.J. Upton ever become a major league star? Like Zobrist, Upton is better at home and has slumped in the second half of the season, but Upton wasn’t having an All Star season before the second half. Next year Upton will be 25 years old, and if he isn’t going to put up the numbers he put up as a 22 year old, or even manage to perform at a league average level, the Rays may need to move on. He is still a top notch defender, but there are other good centerfielders who can also hit their weight.

Gabe Gross completes the trinity of second half slumpers for the Rays. I’ve been a Gabe Gross fan since he was with the Brewers, but even I can be a realist. This guy is a corner outfielder, and there aren’t many lineups in baseball that succeed with corner outfielders who have a league average OPS. Gross will be 30 years old next year – he is either going to pull a Raul Ibanez, or he is going to become a “veteran” whose “leadership” in the “clubhouse” is “invaluable,” meaning, “we don’t play this guy a lot, but it is nice to have him around.”

Fact is, next year’s lineup will probably be a crowded one, and guys who can’t get the bat on the ball consistently may be on their way out. Next year’s outfield will likely be composed of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Rightfielder-in-Waiting Matt Joyce, while the infield will be made up of Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Akinori Iwamura, and Carlos Pena once again. This means that Gross, Zobrist, and Burrell will be fighting for playing time at the DH position

And while that may be bad news for Gross and Burrell, it is good news for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Related posts:

1. The Current Mindset of the Rays
2. The Rays After 40 Games
3. Rays Reflections

What have the Tampa Bay Rays shown us in 2009?  They have shown us that they are, indeed, a very good baseball team.  More importantly, they’ve shown remarkable depth – as we watch the New York Mets crash and burn because three of their biggest stars haven’t been healthy in 2009, it is impressive to see a younger and inexperienced team play eight games above .500 despite a myriad of injuries and underachievement.

Surely the disappointing pitching of Scott Kazmir (6.69 ERA), Andy Sonnanstine (6.61), and David Price (5.60 ERA, 33 BB and 11 HR in 53.0 innings pitched) would be enough to undo a team with less depth.  The Rays, however, have seen Jeff Niemann (3.81 ERA) emerge as a full time quality starter, and seen James Shields and Matt Garza develop as the new duo at the top of the rotation.

Had the Rays been mediocre this season, one could certainly have pointed to the injuries that have forced Jason Bartlett to miss 20 games, or Carlos Pena’s .217 batting average, or B.J. Upton’s continued two season funk as the explanation.  But Evan Longoria has continued to impress, Carl Crawford is playing better than ever, and Ben Zobrist, of all people, has emerged as a major league star, while Gabe Gross has finally come through on some of the potential I’ve been touting for so long (it is annoying).  Meanwhile, Wily Aybar and his 116 OPS+ may be one of the truly under-heralded players of the year so far.

Unfortunately for the Rays, this isn’t 2008, and this isn’t the AL Central.  Despite having a record that would lead three divisions, and would be half a game behind the NL wild card leader, the Rays find themselves 7.5 games behind the Yankees and 5.0 games behind the Red Sox.  It is beginning to look like the Rays are a very good team in a great division.  It is a sad truth, one which went one sabbatical in 2008 and came back refreshed and dominant as ever in 2009.

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So what are the Rays to do?  Fortunately, they are a good, young, and (most importantly) inexpensive team, which means it is not fire-sale time.  In fact, it could be time to build for next year by taking advantage of this year’s replaceable parts.  If the Rays are not going to be in the playoffs – which it certainly appears is the case, though the season is far from over – they owe it to themselves to be better prepared for next season.  And here’s how:

Take advantage of this year’s contenders. While it is less demonstratively true than it was last year at this time, the Rays are still loaded with pitching talent.  Thus, I renew my call to trade struggling ace Scott Kazmir.  I said at the beginning of the season that he would likely never again be as valuable as trade bait as he was before the 2009 season, and now we are getting to the point where the Rays may never again be able to bluff about him being past whatever issues he was having.  If the Rays could throw Kazmir into the mix for some contending team, then they could possibly add a prospect who might be capable of contributing as soon as next season.

Sack Pat Burrell.  I don’t think they can trade this guy – I’m not sure what the market is for a guy who is hitting .226 with a .700 OPS, can’t be trusted to play in the field, and is in the first year of a big contract.  But I do know this – Burrell is the Rays third oldest hitter behind Gabe Kapler and Joe Dillon, and every time Joe Maddon inserts Burrell into the lineup he’s taking away playing time from some young player who could be both developing their talent and contributing to the club in a way that Burrell does not.

By the way, props to the Phillies for discarding a guy who was on their World Series team, who was their former number one overall draft pick, and who was climbing the all time franchise leader-boards in order to sign a guy who is five years older and doesn’t have the same monster-mash pedigree.  All Raul Ibanez has done with the Phillies this year is put up career numbers, stabilize left field from a defensive standpoint, and establish himself as the leading contender for the National League MVPOTAP (Most Valuable Player Other Than Pujols) Award.

Pretend to contend, and make a killer move. This is probably the most intriguing of the choices – what if the Rays paraded themselves around town as a team that was looking to make a strong roster move in order to shore up its chances at the post-season, with an eye towards next season.  Acquiring a guy for the second half of the season would (in theory anyway) give them an inside track to re-signing the guy when his contract is up.  What if Brandon Phillips or Josh Willingham were available for a relative paucity of minor league talent?

Demote Andy Sonnanstine. I don’t know what Sonnanstine’s issue in 2009 has been, and I don’t care.  The Rays need to find themselves a pitching guru – is Greg Maddux available?  Curt Schilling?  Bob Tewksbury? – and send Sonnanstine to pitch on whichever of their minor league teams is closest to whichever guy will work with him.  Sonnanstine is a control-style pitcher who, with tutoring, could be an effective pitcher, and without tutoring could be the next Brian Lawrence or Dave Bush.  Let Sonnanstine take some time to figure out what is bothering him, and get ready for next season.

At the end of the day, the Tampa Bay Rays do not have to be one of these teams that every ten years or so puts together a surprising season, like Kansas City, Baltimore, Cincinnati, or Florida.  Tampa Bay could be a legitimately decent franchise that plays around .500 ball every season, and from time to time things click and they are in the playoff mix – like the Astros, Phillies, Padres, and Mariners.  They certainly play in a big enough market in the Tampa/St. Pete area to make it happen.  What we are seeing right now is likely the beginning of that.

But if this franchise is going to operate on that level, then there needs to be a new mindset (which the Rays have, apparently, begun to adopt).  Bad teams scrap themselves when they are out of it in July and wait until next year, but decent teams, though still out of it by August, make themselves better through both player development and smart front office moves year round, knowing that next year could be their special year.  That is where I think the Rays are now.

Related posts:

1. Breaking News: The Rays Are Sellers, and Looking Towards 2010
2. The Rays After 40 Games
3. Rays Reflections