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Below you will find an analysis of Tim Lincecum’s pitching mechanics as compared to other pitchers.

Some pitchers are current day pitchers as well as including how he compares with selected Hall of Fame pitchers like Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, etc.

Related posts:

1. Friday Night Links
2. Why Tim Lincecum will be your 2009 NL Cy Young winner
3. Braves Run Scored, Run Scored Against Analysis

Catcher

Brian McCann .265-10-34, 2010 Yahoo! ADP: 37- McCann battled eye issues again this season and that could easily have played a role in his 2010 struggles.  He’ll be 27 in 2011 and the big season is coming eventually.

Matt Weiters .236-6-26, 2010 Y! ADP: 98 – Weiters was a popular breakout selection this season but he has disappointed mightily.  We are very impatient when it comes to fantasy sports.  He has the talent, but sometimes it takes a little bit longer for guys to find their groove at the game’s highest level.  Patience will pay off.

First Base

Mark Teixeira .243-13-53, 2010 Y! ADP: 10 – He is very quietly starting to turn around a very uncharacteristic season.  The hole that he dug himself is likely too deep to completely pull himself out of.  He should still be a 1st rounder next season, but he is likely to make plenty of fantasy managers very happy by falling to the 2nd round.

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Prince Fielder .262-18-36, 2010 Y! ADP: 12 – The discrepancy between where Prince should be drafted and where he is drafted in 2011 is likely to be fairly small.  However, he is doing a nice little “on-year/””off year” sort of deal.  If you’re the superstitious type, you may also believe that Prince is going to deliver a monster season in 2011 at a small discount.

Billy Butler .320-8-42, 2010 Y! ADP: 78 – Butler is not having a poor season by any stretch of the imagination.  However, he is leaving a little bit to be desired in the power category.  He is not going to fall off the map in 2011 drafts, but he could be passed over by managers looking for more power production.

Second Base

Chase Utley .277-11-37, 2010 Y! ADP: 5 – Utley was already struggling a bit before his thumb injury so he is surely headed for a position in the late-first/early-second round range in 2011 drafts.  Again, someone will be presented with a nice gift on draft day.

Ian Kinsler .299-3-26, 2010 Y! ADP: 18 – The high ankle sprain that Kinsler suffered in Spring Training seems to have had a significant lingering effect on his power and speed production.  His situation is similar to Butler’s.  The MVP-caliber season is still in the cards.

Gordon Beckham .206-2-20, 2010 Y! ADP: 132 – 2010 has just been a nightmare for Beckham after such a promising rookie campaign in 2009.  Its hard to imagine him not outproducing his 2011 draft position – wherever it ends up.

Third Base

Aramis Ramirez .177-6-23, 2010 Y! ADP: 55 – Yeah, he’ll be 32 heading into the season and will turn 33 in June, but he’s still got some juice left in the tank.  A career .281 hitter, A-Ram will be a really nice discount at 3B after the top guys are off the board.

Pablo Sandoval .269-6-32, 2010 Y! ADP: 33 – Sandoval will be interesting because after what could end up as a sub-par 2010, there will be a lot of noise regarding “who the real Sandoval is”.  To be honest, Kung Fu Panda will probably make my upcoming Potentially Overvalued list as well.

Shortstop

Jose Reyes .277-6-32, 2010 Y! ADP: 45 – Of course you can’t forget about the 19 swipes.  Reyes is another guy who won’t be going down as “Value Pick of the Year” in 2011, but when he’s himself he is a borderline first rounder and certainly a Top-20 player.  Even though he’s a 2010 All-Star it is possible that he gets skipped over a few too many times in 2011 drafts.

Stephen Drew .268-4-28, 2010 Y! ADP: 183 – The tools are there somewhere.  Nobody knows if he’ll be able to put them together in 2011.  Chances are you won’t have to invest much at all to find out.

Outfield

Curtis Granderson .226-7-22, 2010 Y! ADP: 56 – His groin injury in May has probably played a part in his lack of stolen bases (6) and his work against LHP has been less than poor.  It usually takes new Yankee a year to feel comfortable.  He’ll produce nicely in 2011.

Grady Sizemore (DL) .211-0-13, 2010 Y! ADP: 25 – His stock has been on a two-year plummet.  He is too young and too talented to just fall off of the map.  His knee injury, as odd as it may sound, could be a blessing in disguise as it’ll allow his elbow to fully recover.  If he gets back to 100% he’s got my endorsement for Comeback Player of the Year and Best Value of 2011.

Jacoby Ellsbury .250-0-3, 2010 Y! ADP: 25 - Ellsbury’s season has been lost to this point as he has only played nine games due to fractured ribs.  He won’t fall too far in 2011, but at least if you draft him you will get to pay market value instead of overpaying like those who drafted him in 2010 likely did.

Carlos Quentin .229-13-50, 2010 Y! ADP: 180 – The numbers that you see to the left are the result of a recent hot streak.  That is how bad his numbers have been this season.  This is another guy like Drew who has the talent but it is just a matter of whether or not you’ll see it.  Nothing wrong with gambling with a 20th round pick.  The chances are good that he could end up there in 2011.

Starting Pitchers

Justin Verlander 10–103–3.85–1.15, 2010 Y! ADP: 56 – Barring a hot second half – something that Verlander is very capable of – his stock is likely to regress in 2011.  It’s not that his numbers are poor this season.  It’s just that the discrepancy between the numbers he’s posting and the numbers people expected will cause people to pass over him.

Zack Greinke 4–92–3.94–1.20, 2010 Y! ADP: 28 - See Justin Verlander.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Greinke’s stock falls into the Verlander tier.  Fine with me.

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Tim Lincecum 8–121–3.28–1.30, 2010 Y! ADP: 10 – Failing to live up to a first round selection is the best way to create negative buzz and to drive your stock downward.  Personally, I think it’s even worse when you’re a pitcher.  “The Freak” hasn’t looked like himself in 2010 but 2011 will present a golden opportunity to draft a staff anchor at 1-2 round discount.

Relief Pitchers

I’m not even going to name any specific players here because relief pitching is all about taking advantage of the random guys who emerge out of the shadows each and every year.  Jon Rauch, Ryan Franklin and Andrew Bailey are just a few guys who emerged out of absolutely nowhere to claim a closer’s job.  There are countless others who are not getting saves but are still dealing.  The key with closers is to just make sure you do not overpay.

That was a quick list of guys to pay close attention to for the remainder of the season.  Granted, many of the names above are not going to make it out of the first three rounds and a lot will change between now and the end of September.  2011 fantasy baseball success starts in 2010 though.

Don’t get a late jump on the competition.

Related posts:

1. Pre 2010 Fantasy Baseball Predictions at the Mid-Way Point
2. Future Baseball Studs And A Fantasy Round Up
3. Passing the Fantasy Baseball Torch

Stephen Strasburg Photo by Icon SMI

Throughout the course of the year, there are several different dates/events that receive plenty of hype and that fans look forward to.  Opening Day, Week 1, the All-Star Break, the Trade Deadline and Free Agency are just a handful.  Another event that generates plenty of hype and optimism is the Amateur Draft.  Each sport has one with varying levels of media coverage.  The NFL and  NBA drafts, rightfully so, generate the most fanfare because the impact of rookies can be immediate in some cases.  Guys like Brandon Jennings, Matt Forte, Chris Paul and Percy Harvin are guys who played a large role in the performance of their teams on the field/court as rookies and also contributed mightily to the success of countless fantasy managers.  MLB is obviously a little bit different.  Very rarely do draftees make the jump from college or high school to the highest level of pro ball.  Mike Leake is certainly a humongous exception.  Fans have to be more patient with their MLB teams’ draft picks than they do with those of their NFL and NBA teams, but that has not stopped MLB from trying to turn their draft into a larger and more media friendly event.

Lately, though, it seems as though the required amount of patience required from MLB fans awaiting their top prospects has been shorter.  Tighter wallets/fatter bonuses (ironic, huh?) and higher expectations have combined to create the urgency and temptation to push top talent more aggressively through the Minors to the Bigs.  Bigger talent and better developmental systems allows these prospects to answer the call.  Not only are young guys making tangible contributions to their real teams’ win-loss records, but they are also making sizable impacts on fantasy leagues – keeper leagues in particular.  Here are a few guys from recent drafts who serve as evidence of the decreasing gap between Draft Day and Opening Day.

2009 Draft

Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, Debut: June 8, 2010) – He should have done the “Mike Leake” before Leake did it.  He’s already lived up to the hype early on striking out 22 in 12.1 innings.

Mike Leake (8th overall, Debut: April 11, 2010) – Not as explosive as “The Stras”, but he has a 2.68 ERA in 77.1 IP without any Minor League experience – impressive!

Drew Storen (10th overall, Debut: May 17, 2010) – Future closer is already helping to bolster the Nats’ bullpen.

2008 Draft

Brian Matusz (4th overall, Debut: August 4, 2009) – The numbers aren’t pretty, but considering that he’s a rookie pitching in the AL (b) East, he deserves some credit for standing up to the competition even if his ERA is 4.92.

Buster Posey (5th overall, Debut: May 29, 2010) – He’s currently batting .344 and I’ve seen him described as “the right-handed Joe Mauer“.  What else needs to be said?

Gordon Beckham (8th overall, Debut: June 4, 2009) – Struggling mightily in 2010, but had a great rookie year, batting .270 and belting 14 homers.

Justin Smoak (11th overall, Debut: April 23, 2010) – Struggling in his first go-around, but has shown solid command of the strike zone with a 27/40 BB/K ratio.

Ike Davis (18th overall, Debut: April 19, 2010) – Mets are .5 game out of first place and Davis is a big reason why.

2007 Draft

David Price (1st overall, Debut: September 14, 2008) – 10 wins so far in 2010!

Matt Wieters (5th overall, Debut: May 29, 2009) – Not living up to the hype so far, but he is another guy who was compared to Mauer coming up.  “Mauer with power” – what’s not to like about that?

Jason Heyward* (14th overall, Debut: April 5, 2010) – The J-Hey Kid has an .875 OPS as a 20-year old.

Rick Porcello* (27th overall, Debut: April 9, 2009) – Ugly numbers in 2010, but pitched 170.2 innings of 3.96 ball as a 20-year old rookie in 2009.

Mike Stanton* (76th overall, Debut: June 8, 2010) – Trying to carry his juggernaut Double-A production into the Marlins lineup.

2006 Draft

Photo by Icon SMI

Evan Longoria (3rd overall, Debut: April 12, 2008) – Reached full-blown stud status in 2009.

Clayton Kershaw* (7th overall, Debut: May 25, 2008) – The walks come in bunches, but he’s got a career 9.47 K/9 and .211 BAA.

Tim Lincecum (10th overall, Debut: May 6, 2007) – Two full seasons, two Strikeout Crowns (if such a thing really exists), two Cy Young Awards.

*Drafted out of high school

It is evident from the list above that most of the players making quick impacts on the Major League level are those that are drafted out of college.  Even so, the time between draft and debut is shrinking.  Not only that, but we are starting to see more high school talent making quicker rises through the Minors as well.  This means that many of the players from the 2010 draft (the guys not named Bryce Harper) will become familiar names before long.  We’ll watch several of them in the 2011 Future’s Game and then by 2012 we will start seeing some of them in MLB unis.  The ascension of top draft picks is not as quick as it is in the NFL or NBA, but the wait isn’t as long as it used to be.

Fantasy Ruckus

Catcher – Mike Napoli; I recently suggested that fantasy managers keep an eye on Ryan Doumit for the simple fact that he was going to be spending some time at 1B on the days he wasn’t catching.  Well, Mike Napoli already has 1B eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, and with Kendry Morales gone for the season, he will finally get the 450+ ABs that fantasy owners have been hoping for.  His numbers are not too impressive right now so the price in a trade could be cheap.

First Base – Mark Teixeira, Justin Smoak; The current and “future” Teixeira have both struggled.  Smoak is a rook, so his struggles are expected.  Not so much for Teixeira.  Let’s take a deeper look into each player though.  Smoak has struck out once every four at-bats which is a bit high, but not exorbitant for a rookie.  He has been hitting line drives at a 25% clip though which one would think is enough to overcome a semi-high strikeout total and push a batting average into the .250 range – at least.  However, it seems the balls he puts into play – even those of the line drive variety – are finding gloves as his BABIP has dropped anchor at .237.  The story is quite similar for Teixiera which is fitting considering the similarities between the two players.  If you look at Teixeira’s numbers you will notice that the K & BB rates and batted ball types are very similar to what he’s done over the course of his career.  The BABIP, however, sits at .247 for the season which is substantially lower than his career mark of .305.  Buy low on Teixeira if you can and add Smoak in keeper leagues if he’s still available.  Each one should see his numbers increase from this point forward.

Second Base – Ian Kinsler; While his overall numbers aren’t exactly bad, they are not worthy of his pre-injury Top-20 draft position.  His power has been non-existent and his speed has not been on display on the base paths.  Now, we expected the drop in SB, but the drop in power is not going to fly.  He’s hitting ground balls and fly balls at a 1-1 clip and the fly balls he does hit are not being driven evidenced by his lone HR and 2% HR/FB rate.  Normally I like to roll the dice on under-performing studs, but I would have to say leave Kinsler alone for 2010 and hop on him at a discount in 2011.  Ankle injuries – especially high ankle sprains – are notoriously slow to heal and Kinsler even said that he was prepared to deal with pain for the rest of the year.  That is not an encouraging thing to hear from a player who’s argument as a Top-20 fantasy producer was already a bit sketchy heading into the season.

Third Base – Pedro Alvarez; It’s time for the Alvarez Era to being in Pittsburgh.  Word is he’ll immediately be thrust into the middle of the Pirates order.  After a slow start at Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez ended up with a .277/.363/.533 slash line with 13 HR and 53 RBI.  Slowly but surely Pittsburgh is putting together a lineup that will be more exciting if not more dangerous.

Short Stop – Hanley Ramirez; Han-Ram has had a solid season, but has it been worthy of the No. 1 or 2 overall selection in fantasy drafts?  The general consensus would have to be ‘no’.  A .290/.374/.492 line with 10 HR and 35 RBI from your short stop is nothing to complain about at all.  The only thing is, you probably passed up several guys producing at a higher level right now which is tough to swallow.  How do things look for the star short stop going forward?  First of all, he’s making a lot of contact and mostly swinging at strikes.  That tells us that he is not swinging at too many bad pitches.  Now that we’ve established that he’s not whiffing too often we can check out his batted ball numbers which are a bit out of whack.  His line drives and fly balls are down as he has hit a lot more balls on the ground so far this season.  His HR/FB rate is a robust 15.9% but only 30.4% of his contact has resulted in fly balls compared to 41.5% in 2009.  His BABIP stands out as well.  While his .299 mark this season is right in line with the league average, it pales in comparison to his .346 career mark.  To me, it just appears that Ramirez needs to get his timing and rhythm going.  I have a hard time blaming his “struggles” on his benching and the accompanying distractions nor is there an injury hampering him that we know of.  This looks like one of those instances where fantasy managers just need to stand pat and ride out the wave.  Maybe if you’re lucky someone in your league will panic and unload him at a discount.

Outfield – Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff; Who are these guys?  Well, we know Aubrey Huff, but we just haven’t seen him like this in a couple of years.  While he has been inconsistent from year to year, Huff has shown the ability to produce power and patience with a solid overall line.  Therefore, it is fair to invest in the Giant with confidence.  It is likely that he is still available in free agency and even more likely that he’ll provide a short term boost – at the very least.  I have a little less confidence in Torres, but he has been very solid all year and if you are struggling offensively, it couldn’t hurt to consider riding the hot hand.  Torres has not produce much power, but he has done some work on the bases with 11 swipes and he has shown solid strike zone command with a 30/38 BB/K.  These names are far from exciting or intimidating, but that won’t matter if they help you in the standings.

Pitching – Edward Mujica, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson; How about the Padres ‘pen?  Think they have something to do with the team’s first place standing in the NL West?  Of course they also have Heath Bell closing games out, but that is where things get interesting.  Bell has long been rumored as a trade chip for the Padres and with the emergence of the three guys before him, the decision to move him could become easier.  As a group, the aforementioned trio has combined to post a 2.40 ERA, .77 WHIP and 109/16 K/BB ratio in 97.2 IP.  Just in case you read that wrong….that is 109 strikeouts and 16 walks.  The question at this point becomes which guy receives the first crack at closing duties?  That is a question that I can not provide a good answer to.  My advice: own all three of them.

Related posts:

1. Pre 2010 Fantasy Baseball Predictions at the Mid-Way Point
2. Early 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Plays
3. Passing the Fantasy Baseball Torch

The month of May was not a good one for the Giants; two of their bigger stars– Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval both slumped badly. Bengie Molina and Aaron Rowand did not do well either. One of the things that I like about veteran players is that if their bats go cold, they do not let it affect their leather (their fielding). One of my favorite things about baseball has always been great defense. There is nothing I like more than seeing a great catch or a relay where they throw a runner out on the bases.

Andres Torres Photo by Icon SMI

I see great things in the outfield from Nate Schierholtz and Andres Torres. Torres has been spectacular, making great catch after great catch. He is very athletic!! It is amazing that he wasn’t picked up by another team who was able to see his mad skills. The other player in the outfield who has surprised me is Aubrey Huff. Giants manager Bruce Bochy had the foresight and courage to put Huff in the outfield to keep his productive bat in the line-up. Huff is athletic and a good outfielder, doing the things necessary to help his team win. I do love this– when professional players change positions at the big league level to help their team win. It shows a dedication to the greater good of winning as a team. I can remember three instances in Giants history that I love– in 1978, Bill Madlock moved from third base to second base. In 1982, Reggie Smith played first base instead of right field, although this may have been due to off season arm surgery, too. Then again in 1982, Hall of Famer Joe Morgan volunteered to play the outfield when the Giants had injuries to multiple outfielders.

There are three things over the course of a season that can definitely change the dynamics of a team; injuries, trades and acquisitions.  It looks like the Giants have lost Mark DeRosa for the year due to a recurring wrist injury. It responded to rest, but the wrist seemed to have rehab problems with the San Jose Giants and Fresno Grizzlies.  Freddy Sanchez who had shoulder problems at the end of last year, had to be put on the shelf. Sanchez has come back and played very well at second base. He has also shown himself to be a very good clutch hitter, too; he is a definite asset to the team.

C/1B Buster Posey Photo by Icon SMI

There were two other positive acquisitions or surprises for the Giants. One, in an effort to spark their floundering offense was the call-up to the majors of Buster Posey, their top draft pick in 2008. I am truly amazed at how professional he is; he reminds me of Will Clark and Matt Williams when they came up to the Giants in the 1980’s. Bochy, the Giants manager, has Posey playing at first base, which is not his natural position. Bochy recognizes that Posey could probably play anywhere. For example, he started off as a shortstop in college and moved to catcher. Posey also does have a cannon for an arm. One reason that Posey is playing first base is that the Giants do not want to move Bengie Molina from catching to the bench. The second, was the signing of Pat “the Bat” Burrell, who has played for the Phillies and the Rays. Burrell slumped with the Rays who released him and the Giants were able to sign him. He is also a ten year major league veteran.  So, if Pat Burrell gets a roster spot on the Giants, who doesn’t? And the answer is John Bowker. This doesn’t mean that Bowker isn’t a major leaguer, there just isn’t room for him right now. Of course, his .203 batting average might have something to do with it, too.  Time will tell if Bowker makes it with the Giants or with another team.

One of the interesting things about major league baseball is the tight competition for roster spots. Only one out of twenty-five Class A baseball players will make it to the major leagues and the average major league career is four years. There are always players on their way up and on their way down. It is just the reality of life in professional sports. It does make me apprciate those players who have played for years along with those who have struggled to stay for the time that they were in the majors. One can only appreciate the truly great players by watcing them and comparing them against other great players, and not so great players.

And, we shall see what the rest of June brings for the Giants with some interleague play and an end of the month mid-week series against the hated Dodgers…ah, the ride on the roller coaster continues…

Related posts:

1. The SF Giants at the All Star Break
2. The SF Giants June Swoon
3. The SF Giants’ April of 2010

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

@PeteAbe: Beckett agrees to four-year extension – It’ll be four years and $68 million. Press conference will b… http://ow.ly/16Z5Zs &  Westmoreland returns to New England – As you know, Ryan Westmoreland attended last night’s game at F… http://ow.ly/16ZgK7

@MLB: President @BarackObama – “I was a little disappointed with the pitch, it was high and outside. I was intentionally walking the guy.”   &   What was your favorite 2010 #openingday moment so far? @JasonHeyward? Kotchman vs. Bailey? Salty? Flyovers? Neil Diamond? 1st pitch?   &  RT http://is.gd/bhbFI @ryanprasek How do you leave out Buehrle’s webgem of the year?

@espn_durrett: Washington hears plenty of cheers – http://tinyurl.com/yzou6×8 &   Hicks: Opening Day is ‘bittersweet’ – http://tinyurl.com/ykdo9e6

@mlbtraderumors: Hank Blalock And Joe Crede http://bit.ly/ami1aV #mlb &   Pedro Will Start Throwing, Plans To Pitch http://bit.ly/cLOxXp #mlb &   Discussion: Brad Hawpe http://bit.ly/dyc1zq #mlb &   Billy Beane Talks To Athletics Nation http://bit.ly/ceZdaD #mlb

@robneyer: Garrett Jones makes an awesome start toward proving that last season wasn’t a fluke. A few more multi-homer games and I’ll believe it… Considering what Mark Buehrle did today(yesterday), I sure am glad I had him No. 1 on my Fielding Bible ballot last fall. http://tinyurl.com/ybtnnww &   I’ve never seen a player who looked more out of place in a dugout than Tim Lincecum. Which of course makes him all the more endearing.

@alexspeier: Beckett: ‘I look at [deal] as more what I gained than what I potentially lost.’ Highlights from him and Epstein http://bit.ly/cIfvvj #redsox &  Also noteworthy: Epstein said that ‘there isn’t a medical reason’ that would militate against a deal with Beckett. #redsox

@MLB_Monster: Brewers owner says Fielder contract talks ongoing (source: CBS News): Milwaukee Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said … http://bit.ly/bm3J74 &  Heyward adds to legend in first at-bat: Heyward adds to legend in first at-bat http://bit.ly/d0v03f &  Opening power: Pujols homers twice in win: Opening power: Pujols homers twice in win http://bit.ly/aZU8kZ &   Wright, Santana lead Mets by Marlins 7-1 (AP): David Wright, Johan Santana, Jason Bay. Each of them delivered. Thi… http://bit.ly/dfoLun &   Matsui has HR, 2 RBIs in Angels debut (AP): Hideki Matsui drove in the go-ahead run in the fifth and added an eigh… http://bit.ly/9PhliW

@alysonfooter: Oswalt replaced in 6th by pinch-hitter Cory Sullivan. Final pitching line: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 Ks. 86 pitches, 53 strikes.   &   Lincecum final line: 7 IP, 4 H, 0ER, 0 BB, 7 ks. Giants lead 5-0 in 8th. #astros

@FantasyMLB: Heyward lives up to hype; Z gets rocked; Marcum flirts with no-no; check out the Rundown for all the details: http://tiny.cc/uu293 &   One chance to make a first impression: Godzilla conquers Twins, Kotchman leads M’s over A’s http://bit.ly/94Z2Rw

@kellythesier: When Torii Hunter was introduced, he ran over and hugged #Twins manager Ron Gardenhire first and gave a playful shove to Span.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Heyward, Halladay, Pujols, Lincecum. And Buehrle”s play. What an Opening Day! Happy new year, everyone. Enjoy the season! #MLB

@espnrangersblog: How many homers will Nelson Cruz hit? – http://tinyurl.com/yhjupm5

Related posts:

1. Baseball News, Tweets & More: Friday pm
2. Baseball News, Tweets & More: Wednesday pm
3. Baseball News, Tweets & More: Friday pm

Every year, every team is different coming out of Spring Training with different expectations. Part of the expectations for the new baseball season depend on several factors– off season acquisitions (trades and free agent signings) and player losses, along with what happened the year before. A team who does unexpectedly well– like the Giants did in 2009–is expected to do very well in 2010 by the fans, but not necessarily by the media. Since I am a baseball fan, I don’t care so much about the media. I’m going with my perspective which generally is more hopeful.

The Giants are not without their questions this off season, as are all teams in the National League West. The Giants did add two players who are supposed to enhance their offense– Aubrey Huff, who will be playing first base, and Mark De Rosa, who will be playing left field.  The Giants did lose three players– Randy Johnson, who retired, but did not help the team as much as expected in 2009 due to a midseason injury, Bobby Howry, who was one of the solid performers in their bullpen, and Randy Winn, who moved onto the Yankees. I’m not sure if the Giants were interested in re-signing Bobby Howry, but they were content to let Randy Winn move on, and he signed with the Yankees. The Giants think that Winn’s replacement is Major League-ready to play. The proof will be during the season.

There are two significant questions for the off season at two different positions. In right field, the Giants have Nate Schierholtz, who is good defensively, but is an unknown entity offensively. I think that if the Giants just play him day-in, day-out that he’ll be fine. The other position, in question, is second base, due to Freddy Sanchez, being hurt, and coming back from off season surgery. However, Juan Uribe, Jose Uribe’s nephew, a Giants shortstop from the 1980’s and one of my favorite players, is a capable back-up.

Photo by Icon SMI

The biggest surprise of the whole off season for the Giants was the re-signing of catcher Bengie Molina. I don’t think that anyone ever expected Molina to come back to the Giants, and catcher is such a crucial position in baseball. The Giants were uncertain as to whether or not they should trust a rookie, Buster Posey with the position for the year. While Posey does have a great deal of baseball talent, it was a question of whether his lack of baseball experience was going to show up. I think that the general plan, for this year, is to get Posey’s feet wet at the major league level, and be ready to go for 2011.

The Giants’ strength for 2010 should be the same as it was for 2009– fantastic pitching. They have a rotation of Tim Lincecum, coming off his second Cy Young Award in a row, Matt Cain, who had a very solid year last year, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez who were both very good in the second half of the season. As I said previously, I had the great pleasure of watching Sanchez throw his no-hitter last year on July 10th, 2009. And, the bullpen anchored by closer Brian Wilson is one of the best in baseball. If they can just make the post-season, their pitching could carry them very far, possibly into the World Series.

My favorite moment of Opening Day is walking into the baseball park, and seeing the field, and smelling the freshly cut grass. I just take great pleasure in the sights and the sounds of the ballpark. I am trying to remember if there is one particular Opening Day that stands out for me. I remember one Opening Day at Candlestick Park in, I believe,1989, and the Giants had a lead in the eighth inning until Hall-of-Famer Eddie Murray of the (hated) Dodgers hit a grand slam Home run to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. What I remember most about that game was being there with my friends, sitting in the upper deck and just having fun. The other Opening Day I remember fondly is in 2000 at the opening of AT & T Park, which was originally known as Pacific Bell Park. The transition from Candlestick Park to AT & T Park was absolutely incredible. However, it would have been nice if the Giants hadn’t lost to the Dodgers (yes, again, sigh?) with three home runs hit by Kevin Elster. Who? Exactly, my point….I hate when the Giants lose to the Dodgers.

Well, it should be a very exciting baseball season, and I am ready for it to begin…So, let’s “Play Ball.”

Related posts:

1. The SF Giants June Swoon
2. The Giants and Dodges Rivalry is better than the Yanks and Red Sox!
3. 2010 Opening Day in San Francisco

I feel like I can chart my life through the hisotry of the Giants. In 1987, the year that I graduated from college, it was also the year that my father married my stepmother, it was the year that the Giants won the division, but lost in the play-offs to the Cardinals. In 1989, my oldest sister married her husband, it was the first time in twenty-seven years that the Giants won the pennant, and the World Series was wrecked by the Loma Prieta earthquake, and the “steroid-ed” Bash Brothers of the Oakland A’s.

There are moments in baseball that I will never forget. For my twenty-first birthday, in 1986, my father, as a special gift, gave me a trip to New York in part to see one of my favorite Giants, Willie McCovey inducted into the Hall of Fame. I stayed with my sister and future brother-in-law, who were living in Hoboken, N.J. at the time. Going to Cooperstown, N.Y. for the induction ceremony with my future brother-in-law was quite an adventure, but I’ll tell you all about that later on– in the future. The other moment in baseball that I’ll never forget is when my best friend, through some miracle was able to get tickets for Game 5 of the 1989 NLCS– the Giants vs the Cubs. It was one of the greatest games that I’ve ever seen. Will Clark, another of my Giants heroes, singled up the middle off Cubs pitcher Mitch Williams to socre the winning runs in the bottom of the eighth inning.

For all the great baseball games that I’ve been to, one of my greatest moments occured last July 10, 2009, when I had the pleasure of seeing the first Giants no-hitter in thirty-three years since John “the Count” Montefusco, one of my childhood heroes. It was thrown by the least likely Giants pitcher to throw one, Jonathan Sanchez, who was pitching due to future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson not being able to take his regular turn in the rotation. It was spectacular and very exciting!! This is also one of the things that makes baseball great and fun– the unexpected.

Well, for all the great moments that I’ve seen, I wouldn’t be a Giants fan without my fair share of heartbreak. The Giants have the honor of being the holder of the third longest streak of not having won a World Series. And, they have never won a World Series since they’ moved to San Francisco in 1958. Utterly heartbreaking, eh? This has occurred even though they’ve had great ballplayers, Hall of Fame ballplayers, including the greatest ball player of all-time, Willie Mays. In 2002, the Giants lost to the Anaheim Angles in seven games, and they were eight outs away from winning it all in game six with a 5-0 lead. Probably, the only time that a team was closer to winning the World Series was in 1986 when the Red Sox were one strike away from winning it all. I cannot explain the emptiness in my heart and stomach as I watched the lead disolve and the game end.

Photo by Icon SMI

Well, I will chronicle the Giants season in 2010 as it progresses. Being a fan of baseball history, I will examine the Giants season in the context of their history. Last year, was a great year wiith outstanding pitching. While I do recognize that the Giants do have faults, as do most teams, I also recognize that they have some of the best young pitching in baseball. Their pitching staff is lead by two-time Cy Young Award Winner, Tim Lincecum, also known as “the Freak”. However, will the Giants have enough hitting to get them to the post-season? This is what the next six months of the baseball season will determine.

Welcome along for the ride from my perspecitve of being a Giants fan..

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1. The SF Giants at the All Star Break
2. The SF Giants June Swoon
3. The Giants So Far in May And More…

Brian Sabean’s off-season shopping list:

First baseman (with power)

Short-stop (who’s name is not an anagram for aged-rental)

Left fielder

Right fielder

Catcher

Oh, and pick up some milk, bread and maybe some of those frosted holiday cookies. And, one more thing. Could you take Aaron Rowand back? I left the receipt on the firdge, maybe you can get a partial refund or at least some sort of store credit? Thanks, Brian, call if you have any questions!

THE GIANTS’ KITCHEN is about as bare as the one you had in your first apartment. They’ve got a lot of Top Ramen (Travis Ishikawa, Fred Lewis, Eli Whiteside), an expensive frozen Ostrich steak their weird uncle sent them as a gift (Aaron Rowand), some old produce that’s turning into liquid before their very eyes in the crisper drawer (Edgar Renteria), and a case of PBR (Eugenio Velez, John Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Nate Schierholtz). In other words, they’ve got food, but nothing you’d want to eat.

Chef Brian Sabean has stocked his cupboard with a dearth of offense, aside from a nice fillet of Panda.

It’s true, the Giants have a couple bottles of Cristal in their cellar (Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain) and their spice rack (bullpen) has enough to compliment the right plate. But if this were Top Chef , Padma Lakshmi would have the unenviable task of judging the Giants’ dish.

Since the 2002-2003 offseason when Sabean re-tooled the defending National League champs into a team that went on to win 100 games and the NL West, the GM has come up empty while doing his winter shopping.

Yet impressively, despite a menu that’s more Applebee’s than French Laundry , the 2009 Giants were in contention right up until the last two weeks of the season.

Their success was due, unequivocally, to their starting pitching and late relief. But, thanks to their inept offense, so much was asked of the pitching staff in the early going that it finally ran out of steam in September.

Lincecum’s ERA was 3.38 after Sept. 1, while fellow starters Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Barry Zito allwed a combined 51 earned runs in 101 innings pitched (4.54 ERA) over the same time span.  Not goo enough for a team that averaged just 4.05 runs per game in ‘09. Only Brad Penny had a September ERA under three, but in the single biggest game he started, Sept. 19^th in Los Angeles, he coughed up seven earned runs in just 2.2 innings.

If the Giants can improve their lineup — something they’ve failed to do since 2003 — they stand an excellent chance of reaching the post-season.

The problem? Each season there is that elite class of free-agents — Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodiguez, to name a recent few — but the Giants refuse to even attempt to attract this level of talent.

Thursday, during Tim Lincecum’s Cy Young Award press conference, Sabean said he has not contacted agents for Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, and does not expect to either.

To paraphrase Sabean, he said he refuses to be a “stalking horse” for any player who’s only using the Giants to get more money elsewhere, and that he will consider only free agents who have a genuine interest in relocating to China Basin.

The newly extended GM doubts neither Bay or Holliday have a genuine interest because the Yankees, Red Sox and other bigger-market teams will be pursuing them.

Yet, perhaps too optimistically, Sabean believes there is a solid crop of “second-tier” free-agents on the market.

Sabean is going to the grocery store in desperate need of some beef, yet he’s looking for it in the frozen dinner isle.

The possible second-tier free-agents the Giants may be considering are listed below:

This is not a complete list of available free-agents, and it doesn’t factor in any players the Giants could acquire via a trade (San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez, por ejemplo). Also Chone Figgins, for instance, is not listed and though he is a notch below the likes of power-hitting Bay and Holliday, he will still likely command more money than the Giants are willing to pay.

There is no team in baseball with such a drastic disproportionate collection of talent — and this didn’t exactly sneak up on the Giants.

The saying is when you’re given lemons, make lemonade. And while the Giants have some delightful, sweet, organic, ripe lemons in their pitching staff, they seem reluctant to add a simple ingredient like water to make things work.

Related posts:

1. Closer’s Corner, June 21: Brian Fuentes, Huston Street, Alfredo Simon & More
2. It’s Been A Giant Roller Coaster Of A Season So Far In San Fran
3. A Preview of Opening Day For the SF Giants

Congratulations to Tim Lincecum for winning the 2009 NL Cy Young award, just a couple short days after Zack Greinke’s victory for the AL counterpart. But an even bigger congratulations is in order. A congratulations to the BBWAA voters.

Just what am I getting at, you ask? As we’re all aware of, there have been several outrageous Cy Young awards given out almost solely due to a pitcher’s run support. 1967 may have been the worst, when Jim Bunning garnered only 1 first place vote despite obviously pitching more and better quality innings than NL winner Mike McCormick. Then there was a young Tom Seaver losing to Fergusen Jenkins in 1971 when threw 286 innings for an extraordinarily low 1.76 ERA (192 ERA+ and 1.93 FIP), while Jenkins‘ only sizeable lead was in IP (325 vs. 286) and Wins (24 to 20). In 1984, Rick Suttcliffe swept all of the 1st place votes despite pitching 68 less and worse innings than Doc Gooden for the NL. In the AL that year, relievers Willie Hernandez and Dan Quisenberry took the top two spots while Dave Stieb’s league crowns in ERA and IP garnered him only a 7^{th place finish*. In the 90’s we’ve seen Bob Welch beat out} Roger Clemens^{‘ season for the ages in 1990, we’ve seen Kevin Brown’s majestic 1996 largely forgotten due to} John Smoltz^{’s 7 Win lead, and again to another one of Atlanta’s future Hall of Famers two years later in an even worse voting catastrophe –} Brown ^{finished third in balloting despite facing 100 more batters than winner} Tom Glavine ^{whilst striking out 100 more! The new millennium brought us Pedro in his prime losing to Barry Zito because of 3 wins and 30 innings pitched in 2002, Randy Johnson losing to Roger Clemens in 2004 despite his significantly better totals in ERA, IP and strikeouts, all because of 2 measly wins (16 vs Clemens’ 18), and Johan Santana’s third place finish while leading the AL in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts and topping Cy winner} Bartolo Colon ^{in Innings Pitched in 2005.}

^{But now, 41 years later, the two Cy Young award winners won just 31 games COMBINED.}

^{Let that sink in for a second. Thirty-one wins. Zack Greinke pitched himself to 16, Tim Lincecum 15 and that equals Thirty-one! As a point of reference,} Denny McLain ^{in 1968 won 31 games by himself, and was the last pitcher to surpass the 30 win mark.}

^{Finally, after more than 100 years since the Win-Loss record was created and widely used as a measure of effectiveness, we are seeing its perceived value die out. Sure, it’s been spited in favor of Saves on more than one occasion, but that’s no better. For decades, voters who sought out value in other measures have been silenced, even if it was just ERA. But their voices slowly grew louder. And now in 2009, they are the majority. For the first time ever, more voters than not blatantly favored other, more complete statistics to determine Cy Young Award winners. Widely speculated to be Greinke’s biggest competition,} Felix Hernandez ^{garnered 3 more wins (19) and lost the Cy to Greinke in a landslide. Lincecum had two candidates perceived to win against him, in} Chris Carpenter ^and Adam Wainwright^{, who had 17 and 19 wins respectively, and defeated them with his modest 15, albeit narrowly.}

^{What led to this? In the AL, Greinke beat out Hernandez in ERA (2.16 vs. 2.49), Strikeouts (242 vs. 217) despite 9 less Innings Pitched, and gave up significantly less home runs (0.43 HR/9 versus Hernandez’ 0.57). By traditional standards, it’s crystal clear why Greinke should have beat out King Felix. But in the NL, in addition to his lack of wins, Lincecum was behind Carpenter in ERA by nearly a quarter of a run per 9, and Wainwright also had a genuinely great season even if you do ignore his league lead in Wins. By looking at statistics that sportswriters have passed on for generations, it really was a 3-horse race. But diving into the more analytical numbers tells us a very different story…}

^{(tERA and FIP WAR were created by Graham MacAree and Tom Tango, respectively, and can both be found on Fangraphs.com)}

^{tERA and FIP WAR are two metrics that encompass pitching skill by filtering what a pitcher cannot control. FIP WAR is a Wins Above Replacement model of the FIP statistic, which weighs strikeouts, bases on balls and home runs allowed and by itself presents them on a scale similar to ERA. tERA, like FIP, weighs strikeouts, bases on balls and home runs allowed, but also weighs batted ball data such as line drives, ground balls and fly balls allowed, and then presents them on an ERA scale.}

^{(Not familiar with FIP? Ask Zack Greinke! Someone needs to tell him to move out of his mother’s basement.)}

^{…These two statistics are as close to a “Best Pitcher in Baseball” statistic as you can get right now, at least until further development in the Hit-, Field-, and Throw F/X systems. In other words, they do what ERA and W/L record were seen as supposed to do for decades. And just which two pitchers just so happen to be at the top of the list? Why, it’s our two} Cy Young Award ^winners!

^{Now, I’m certain that most voters on the BBWAA panel didn’t look at these stats – heck, I would bet that 90 percent of them never even heard of them. But voters have never hit the nail on the head with the Cy Young award like they did this year.}

^{And that it’s happening at the sunset of the dubbed “}Moneyball^{” decade makes it read like poetry.}

Related posts:

1. The Priesthood Wins Out Over Baseball?!
2. Why Tim Lincecum will be your 2009 NL Cy Young winner
3. BBA 2009 Cy Young Award Ballot

After a year in which Cardinals starting pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright dominated the headlines, pitched their team to a division title and were expected to fight for some off-season hardware, it was the Giants’ Tim Lincecum who picked up the first post-season win amongst the trio.

When the Sporting News named Lincecum the 2009 NL Pitcher of the Year on Thursday it came as a bit of a surprise. Many thought that Carpenter was hands down the best pitcher in the National League, thus having the Cy Young award locked up.

The SN award doesn’t mean Lincecum is now the favorite to win a second consecutive Cy – for one, the two awards are voted on by different entities. The Baseball Writers Association of America vote for the Cy Young, while the SN is decided by the 30 major league general managers.

Still, there is a strong correlation between the SN Pitcher of the Year and the Cy Young.

Since 2000, the American League pitcher named pitcher of the year by TSN went on to win the AL Cy Young in each of the past nine seasons.

However, in the NL only four of the last nine SN winners went on to a Cy Young trophy. The exceptions coming in 2006 when Arizona’s Brandon Webb, who won the Cy Young after Carpenter won the SN. In ’04 Roger Clemens beat out TSN winner Jason Schmidt for the NL Cy. And between 2000-2002 Randy Johnson won three straight Cy Young’s while Tom Glavine was voted TSN’s choice for best pitcher in 2000 and Curt Schilling was their pick in ’01 and ’02.

With that, Thursday’s announcement, while surprising to some, is an indication that baseball is transitioning into the 21^st century of statistical evaluation, valuing win-loss records with less importance. As proponents of Sabermetrics have been pointing out for some time, a pitcher’s win total is more reflective of the strength of his bullpen, the potency of his lineup and other variables out of his control.

After a thorough (and what I hope was an objective evaluation), the case for Lincecum winning his second Cy Young in just his second full season is a strong one.

The breakdown:

Lincecum had more strikeouts, complete games and shutouts than did Carpenter. Opponents hit for a lower average (.209 to .223) and had a lower slugging percentage against the Giant right-hander (though, it was a negligible difference between his .271 clip and Carpenter’s .272).

Surprisingly, in terms of run support, Carpenter wasn’t overwhelmingly supported by his team. St. Louis only provided him with 0.545 runs per inning pitched (IP), while the Giants gave Lincecum only slightly less, 0.510 runs per IP. But, consider Lincecum pitched considerably more innings than Carpenter yet was only rewarded with 10 more runs of support.

Carpenter won more games while giving up nearly a quarter of a run less per nine innings than Lincecum (2.24 to 2.48, respectively). He also gave up seven homers to Lincecum’s 10, both low figures compared to their total innings pitched – particularly impressive for Lincecum considering he is a fastball pitcher (55.8% of his pitches thrown were fastballs).

Both aces had microscopic WHIPS – Capenter 1.01, Lincecum 1.05. Each allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, with Carpenter surrendering .809 hits per IP to Lincecum’s .745 hits per IP.

The numbers across the board are closer than I had guessed they would be. But when you factor in the two teams each pitcher played for Lincecum’s accomplishments become more impressive.

Carpenter played with presumably the 2009 NL MVP, Albert Pujols, had statistically a better team around him and pitched in the NL Central against arguably weaker opponents – the Pirates, Brewers, Astros and Reds who all finished below .500.

Lincecum on the other hand did his damage, by in whole, while facing teams in the West that included two 90-win, playoff teams – the Dodgers and Rockies. He also played for statistically one of the game’s worst offenses.

When pure ‘stuff’ is factored in, the argument swings more in Linceum’s favor. The 25 year old right hander again dominated opponents for a second straight season and the feat of not only repeating his 2008 campaign but improving upon it should be considered.

Batters swung at more than a quarter of Lincecum’s pitches thrown out of the strike zone. They only swung at 61.5% of pitches in the zone – which speaks to the deception of his pitches. In fact, batters only got swings off at 44.4% of all of Lincecum‘s pitches and only made contact on three quarters of those swings (33% of total pitches). Lincecum also dominated while going right after hitters, throwing a majority of his pitches (50.2%) inside the strike zone. Additionally, 6.2% of the 168 hits Lincecum allowed never even left the infield.

Most strikingly, perhaps, Lincecum gave up two or fewer runs in 21 of his 32 starts, and one or fewer runs in 13 starts – yet he only won 10 of those 13 outings. To accent the point of the amount of pressure on Lincecum thanks to the Giants’ hapless offense, in only five starts Lincecum allowed more than three earned runs, going 0-3 in those starts. Essentially Linceum knew he had to be perfect every time he took the ball – and he nearly was.

Both pitchers had remarkable years, but considering Lincecum’s heavy lead in innings pitches, strike outs, hits per inning allowed, opponents’ batting average and slugging percentage, he gets the edge and should become the first ever pitcher to win a Cy Young in each of his first two full seasons.

KEY

BABIP – Batting avg. on balls hit in play.

LOB% – Percentage of base runners left on base without scoring.

RS – Run support.

LD% – Percentage of hits that were line drives.

O-Swing% – Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.

Z-Swing% – Percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.

Swing% – Total percentage of pitches a batter swings at.

O-Contact% – Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone.

Z-Contact% – Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone.

Contact% – Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches.

Zone% – Percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone.

F-Strike% - First pitch strike percentage.

(Italics indicate an advantage for Lincecum in a certain category).

Authors note:

It should be explained that Adam Wainwright, though he led the league in wins with 19 wins, was eliminated from this CY young comparison for a number of reasons. Wainwright had an opponents’ batting average of .263 (only 10 points below the league average). He had a WHIP of 1.21, allowed 17 homers, an opponent’s slugging percentage of .349, and gave up 309 total bases – 73 more than Tim Lincecum and 95 more than Chris Carpenter. Wainwright had a fantastic year but, as the numbers bear out, he was a cut below Carpenter and Lincecum.

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2. BBA 2009 Cy Young Award Ballot
3. Sabermetrics and the Cy Young Award